By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
The Ukraine War Ebook, “The Ukrainian People vs. The Russian Horde”
The Ukraine War Ebook, sent to those who were kind enough to support us, includes all our emails that we sent during the first week of the war. The Ebook has been very well received. Since early July, when the Ebook was released, we have added many new email recipients. For new recipients, plus existing recipients who would like to receive the Ebook, we would be happy to send you a copy in return for your support for our efforts. If you would like to support us in any amount in any currency, and receive an Ebook as our gesture of gratitude, please click on the link HERE. Your support is greatly appreciated!
“Ukraine’s Counteroffensive is More Successful Than You Think”/by Oz Katerji & Vladislav Davidzon via “Foreign Policy” Magazine
This is an excellent article that makes a very important point – those pundits who focus almost exclusively on the Orikhiv/Robotyne counteroffensive, and concluding that progress is “slow,” are only focusing on part of the story and causing their conclusion, that Ukraine’s counteroffensive isn’t making progress, to be incorrect. This article describes the degradation of Russian control over Crimea and the almost complete elimination of the Russian presence in the western portion of the Black Sea allowing, among other things, for the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube ports.
The article implicitly endorses the opinion of Australian Gen. Mick Ryan (Ret.), that it’s impossible to draw a conclusion about the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, or lack thereof, unless one looks at the entire theater of operations, including the entire contact line, where there are several land operations now ongoing, including around Avdiivka (Zone B on Bohdan’s map, below), on the Dnipro River and on the Left Bank of the Dnipro (Zone C), and the attacks on Russian logistics and troop concentrations (All Zones). When one looks at the entire theater of operations as Gen. Ryan suggests, which we have continually done in these emails, a reasonable person must draw a different conclusion.
“Ukrainian Spies With Deep Ties to CIA Wage Shadow War Against Russia”/Washington Post
This article describes an additional front, what the Washington Post describes as a “shadow war.” Ukrainska Pravda, crediting the Washington Post, describes one such operation, the attempted assassination in April 2022 of Gen. Gerasiov, Chief of the Russian General Staff.
As we have reported in these emails, since the end of the Revolution of Dignity Ukrainians, either under orders from the SBU or on their own, have been entering Russia to conduct clandestine activities. Up until February 2022, these activities have largely been non-lethal, consisting of working with ethnic minorities to help them preserve their language and culture, or helping individual Russians to resist the draft. It is likely that these individuals now receive direction from the SBU, and that they are now engaged in conducting lethal operations inside Russia.
The article mentions Mossad, and their successful pursuit of terrorists who have killed Israeli citizens. Ukraine has an extensive database consisting of Russian soldiers of all ranks, from generals down to privates, who have committed war crimes inside Ukraine, including cellphone numbers, names of family members, and addresses. In the future, look for the SBU to conduct operations against these individuals, similar to operations conducted by Mossad.
News From the Battlefield
Both “Reporting From Ukraine” and the “Latest Denys” report on the fighting around Avdiivka. Reporting From Ukraine states that Russia has finally attained partial control of the slag heap called Terrikon, located north of Avdiivka. In response, Reporting From Ukraine stated that Ukraine has launched a counterattack south of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian counterattack also threatens the town of Pisky, located next to the Donetsk International Airport. It is important to keep in mind how close the ongoing fighting around Avdiivka is to the City of Donetsk.
Denys describes Russian tactics around Avdiivka as “Meat Waves.” At 5:40 into his video Denys includes the latest report from the Oryx website, showing that Russia has lost 118 vehicles verses Ukraine’s 22. Denys also reports that the lates after-action reports from the ATACMS strikes at the Luhansk and Berdyansk airports show that Russia has lost 15 KA-52 “Alligator” helicopters, including 7 destroyed and 8 damaged. The KA-52s have been a major problem for Ukrainian tanks operating in both the south and around Avdiivka.
At 8:15 into his video Denys shares the latest report from British intelligence, showing that Russia has sustained between 240,000 and 290,000 Russian casualties, including between 150,000 and 190,000 Russian soldiers either killed or permanently disabled. What stands out is the relatively few Russian soldiers who have sustained relatively minor wounds but have returned to the front. If the Russians had adequate medical facilities, it is likely that one would see many more Russians suffering minor wounds relative to those who have been killed or permanently disabled.
10/23/2023 Sitrep
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Monday, October 23
12:11 AM: Israel's defense minister said the Gaza operation could last up to three months.
● According to results, Hamas must be destroyed.
8:40 AM: The United States will provide effective protection of the American people if Iran tries to escalate Israel's war with Hamas, United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in an interview with NBC News
8:40 AM: The US, South Korea and Japan have conducted their first joint air force exercises near the Korean Peninsula. This is reported by Yonhap with reference to the command of the South Korean Air Force.
8:40 AM: House Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called China, Russia and Iran the new "axis of evil" amid the wars in Ukraine and Israel. He stated this in an interview with Fox News.
Sunday, October 22
12:36 PM: Norway will increase aid to Ukraine in the energy sector by $6.75 billion, — the press service of the Ministry of Energy.
1:55 PM: Ukraine can receive $61.4 billion from the United States, most of which will go to defense, Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova said.
● The rest of the money will be used for direct financial support, humanitarian aid, and demining.
7:05 PM: The US will transfer tens of thousands of 155-mm artillery shells to Israel, which it promised to transfer to Ukraine.
● This is reported by The New York Times with reference to a representative of the US Department of Defense.
● "Global stocks of 155-mm shells and other weapons systems have already been exhausted, and manufacturers are trying their best to meet demand, so "there will be compromises" in supplies for both wars," the publication notes.
11:46 PM: Great Britain trained Ukrainian engineers to protect energy facilities from Russian attacks.
● The two-week training program was developed at the request of Ukraine. Ukrainian engineers were taught how to identify the most vulnerable elements of infrastructure, potential blast distances, and the effects of various weapons and explosives.
NATIONAL
Monday, October 23
12:34 AM: About 2,600 Ukrainian citizens have returned from Russian captivity since the start of the full-scale invasion, - Andrii Yusov
● According to him, recently there has not been such a dynamic as it was before in terms of the number of exchanges and the number of returns.
● "But certain field exchanges are taking place, there were separate operations. The negotiations are continuing and the main thing here is not to tell - the main thing is the result," said the representative of the GUR.
1:04 AM: Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions - missile danger.
● Odesa, Zatoka - the threat of attack UAVs from the Black Sea.
● This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
1:18 AM: Threat of attack UAVs for Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.
● This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
3:08 AM: Activity of enemy tactical aviation in the waters of the Sea of Azov, - Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
3:33 AM: Strike drones in Cherkasy region.
● Movement in the direction of Vinnytsia/Kyiv regions, - Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
3:39 AM: Vinnytsia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi regions - air alert! - OVA
● The air alert in the Kharkiv region is related to the activity of enemy tactical aviation along the border, - Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● Strike UAVs in Vinnytsia, moving towards the western regions.
6:35 AM: Kherson, Mykolaiv regions - air alert! - OVA
● The activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern and southeastern directions, — Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● The threat of using aviation weapons.
7:29 AM: Situation update of General Staff of UAF regarding russian invasion as of 6 a.m., October 23, 2023
● During the day of October 22, there were more than 90x combat engagements. The enemy launched a total of 10x missile and 63x air strikes, 58x MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements.
● Also, russian occupants launched another missile and air strike on Ukraine with 1x Kh-59 air-launched cruise missile, S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles against civilian facilities in Kostyantynivka (Donetsk oblast), and with 4x Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs and 1x attack UAV of an unidentified type. Air defense forces destroyed 1x Kh-59 air-launched cruise missile and all attack UAVs.
● Air strikes hit Ivanivka, Kurylivka (Kharkiv oblast), Nadiya, Nevske (Luhansk oblast), Serebryanka, Spirne, Vyimka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Bola Hora, New York, Novokalynove, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Orlivka, Maryinka, Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva, Staromaiorske (Donetsk oblast), Mala Tokmachka, (Zaporizhzhia oblast), Olhivka, Lvove, Tokarivka, Tyahynka, Ivanivka, Ponyativka, Mykytivka, Prydniprovske, Barvinok (Kherson oblast).
● About 140x settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts came under artillery fire.
Continues below -
Front Line Map as of 11:50 PM October 22, 2023
Odesa operational strategic group
In the city of Nova Kakhovka (Kherson oblast) the enemy has intensified its security measures. The so-called occupation police are searching for up to 60x russian deserters throughout the city.
● At the same time, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on Melitopol axis, inflicting losses in manpower and equipment on the occupation forces, exhausting the enemy all along the front line.
● During the day of October 22, Ukrainian Air Force launched 7x air strikes on the concentrations of troops, weapons and military equipment of the russian invaders.
7:56 AM: 14 UAVs and an air missile were destroyed by air defense forces tonight, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● The Russians attacked with "Shakhed" from the south (Cape Chauda, Crimea). The Kh-59 missile was fired from the Su-34 aircraft from the airspace of the TOT of the Zaporizhzhia region, the unmanned aerial vehicle of an unknown type was allegedly launched from the northern border.
Sunday, October 22
1:05 PM: Kherson and Mykolaiv regions - missile danger, - PS ZSU.
2:08 PM: Kherson, Kirovohrad and Mykolaiv regions - the threat of using ballistic weapons, - PS of the Armed Forces.
2:32 PM: Kharkiv and Donetsk regions - missile danger, - PS of the Armed Forces.
3:12 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
● The President of Ukraine thanked for the humanitarian assistance and mediation in the return of deported and forcibly displaced Ukrainian children to Ukraine.
● The leaders also discussed the situation in the Middle East and negotiations on the Ukrainian Peace Formula.
3:12 PM: Kherson and Mykolaiv regions - air alert, OVA.
3:40 PM: Ukrainian pilots will transfer to F-16 in the near future, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said.
● According to the spokesman, the Ukrainian pilots have completed their "homework" and are now at the "transfer stage", although they are still accompanied by instructors.
4:45 PM Institute for the Study of War: Russian forces are funneling additional forces to the Avdiivka front despite ongoing challenges with frontal mechanized assaults and the failure of a renewed push on October 19-20.
● Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 22.
● A prominent Russian milblogger and frontline commander criticized Russian top-down censorship campaigns.
● Deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's ideological and rhetorical campaign against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has largely become decoupled from the issue of the Wagner Group and appears to have outlived Prigozhin himself.
● Russian authorities are intensifying mobilization efforts targeting Central Asian migrant communities.
● Russian occupation authorities continue to use cultural and education programs to forcibly Russify Ukrainian children.
5:46 PM: Kherson and Mykolaiv regions - air alert, OVA.
7:26 PM: Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad and Mykolaiv regions - missile danger, - PS ZSU.
7:35 PM: The threat of using aviation weapons in areas where an air alert has been declared — the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● Activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern and southeastern directions.
8:18 PM: Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions - air alert, OVA.
9:04 PM: Kyiv, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions - Threat of attack UAVs for Kyiv region, - PS of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
9:02 PM: Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on October 22:
● "Since the beginning of the day, the Kremlin's terrorist forces have cynically launched another air and missile attack on Ukraine, using the Kh-59 guided air missile, S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 3 Shahed-136/131 type attack UAVs.
● The Kh-59 guided air missile and 3 kamikaze drones were destroyed by air defense forces and means.
● Civilian objects in the city of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, came under attack."
● "During the day, 82 combat clashes took place.
● In total, the enemy carried out 10 missile and 36 air strikes, carried out 35 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● As a result of the Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population."
● "During the day, the aviation of the defense forces made 7 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment of the enemy.
● Units of the missile forces destroyed 4 artillery pieces of the enemy."
MORDOR - ruZZia
Monday, October 23
12:54 AM: GUR MOU published a video in which a Russian BMP crushes Russian soldiers.
10:18 AM: OSINT analysts reported that nine helicopters — seven Ka-52s and two Mi-8s — were destroyed during attacks on airfields in occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk.*
● Another eight Ka-52s and seven Mi-8s were damaged (non-repairable helicopters were added to this category "for reliability").
11:45 AM: In 2024, defense spending in the Russian Federation will amount to about 6% of GDP. A constant increase in military spending is highly likely to contribute to inflationary pressure in Russia, British intelligence said.
● In addition, further increases in military spending will force the Russian government to make difficult decisions about how to finance the war, which is likely to increase financial pressure on Russian businesses
Sunday, October 22
12:51 PM: Russian attacks on Avdiivka lead to a 90% increase in Russian casualties, British intelligence.
● British intelligence estimated that Russia's losses in dead and seriously wounded amounted to up to 190,000 soldiers, and taking into account the wounded, who are able to return to the battlefield after recovery, up to 290,000 people.
2:24 PM: Russia has started using drones with engines from AliExpress, but they are still dangerous - Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● "Actually, the engines were bought there from AliExpress, and the enemy will use them in this way. This is not the first time when this "plane" is molded from simple materials, as they say, "from sticks" and launched in the direction of our country," said the spokesperson of the PS .
4:06 PM: Due to heavy losses in the Taurian direction, the occupiers are drawing new reserves there from the territory of the Russian Federation, — the spokesman of the Taurian direction Oleksandr Shtupun.
● According to the spokesman, as a result, there have been more frequent cases when the enemy does not orientate himself on the terrain and on the battlefield.
4:26 PM: Traffic on the Crimean Bridge is temporarily blocked, - rosZMI.
4:56 PM: Every month, the Russian Federation mobilizes more than 20,000 people for war, - representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Yusov.
● "More than 20,000 people a month continue to be recruited in various ways. This is recruiting both among prisoners and among debtors, some uncharitable categories of the population," said the representative of the HUR.
● According to Yusov, in particular, the Russian command widely practices "forced signing of contracts" with former military personnel.
6:40 PM: Russia's Gazprom will supply additional gas volumes to Hungary during the coming winter, Reuters.
● In addition, the Russian Federation will provide China with another 600 million cubic meters. meters of gas this year in excess of contractual obligations.
8:17 PM: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Sevastopol, - rosZMI.
● An air alert has been declared in the city.
REGIONS
KYIV
Sunday, October 22
9:51 PM: In Kyiv, the police reported suspicion to the driver who hit a soldier at a checkpoint at night.
● He was also served with a petition to choose a preventive measure in the form of detention.
● "The Drager device showed that the driver, born in 1978, was in a sober state at the time of the accident," the National Police notes.
10:04 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kyiv region. Previously - air defense work.
10:09 PM: Kyiv OVA confirms the work of air defense forces against Russian anti-aircraft missiles in the region.
10:13 PM: Kyiv - air alert! - KMVA
10:15 PM Kyiv Municipal Military Administration: Air defense is operating on the approaches to Kyiv.
SUMY
Monday, October 23
10:00 AM Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, the Russians carried out 3 shellings of border areas and communities.
● 23 explosions were recorded. Krasnopilsk, Znob-Novgorodsk, and Seredino-Budsk communities came under fire.
10:03 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Sumy region.
KHARKIV
Monday, October 23
11:25 AM Kharkiv RMA: The Russians struck the villages of Kurylivka and Kivsharivka with guided aerial bombs,
● In Kurylivka, a private house, 2 apartment buildings, a building of a civil enterprise and an infrastructure object were damaged. A 39-year-old woman was injured and hospitalized in a moderate condition. In Kivsharivka, the buildings of a vocational school and a kindergarten were damaged, and there were no casualties.
● An 81-year-old man was injured as a result of shelling in the village of Dvorichna. Hospitalized in a moderate condition.
Sunday, October 22
2:44 PM: The number of people injured as a result of a rocket attack on the Novaya Poshta terminal near Kharkiv has increased to 17 people, the regional prosecutor's office reported.
● Another employee of the enterprise received shrapnel wounds, he refused to be hospitalized.
DONETSK
Sunday, October 22
1:07 PM: Over the past day, the occupiers continued shelling the Donetsk region, 3 civilians were wounded, said Acting Ihor Moroz, head of the Donetsk OVA.
● As a result of shelling, a house in Novoukrayinka was damaged. In Avdiivka, houses on four streets were damaged. A house and 2 infrastructure objects were damaged in Toretsk. In Kostyantynivka, 3 private houses, a gas pipeline and an electricity network were damaged.
10:44 PM: DTEK has restored electricity to 45,000 families who were left without electricity due to shelling, the company's press service reports.
● "For three days, energy workers actively worked in the Donetsk region and repaired energy equipment damaged by the enemy. Thanks to this, it was possible to restore electricity to 25 settlements," DTEK writes.
11:05 PM: The GUR explained the importance of Avdiivka.
● "At the same time, in addition to the actual actions taken by the enemy, the Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces continue their active actions, continue to liberate the territory and advance, including in certain areas of the front, in accordance with the general plan and plan.
● Avdiyivka is essentially the gateway to Donetsk, the gateway to the liberation of Ukrainian Donetsk region," said Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
ZAPORIZHIA
Monday, October 23
3:03 AM: Zaporizhzhia region - air alarm, OVA.
● The activity of the enemy's tactical aviation. The threat of the use of aviation weapons (KAB/KAR) for the front edge of the Zaporizhzhia region, - the head of the Zaporizhzhia OVA Yury Malashko.
10:35 AM Zaporizhia RMA: the Russians struck 177 strikes on 24 settlements in the Zaporizhia region.
● As a result of the Russian attack on the civilian sector, the house was damaged. Civilians were not injured.
● Sunday, October 22
● 4:37 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Berdyansk.
DNIPRO
Monday, October 23
5:42 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Dnipropetrovsk region.
8:10 AM Dnipro RMA: In the morning, the Russians directed a rocket at the Dnipropetrovsk region - It was destroyed by the defenders of the PvK "East".
Sunday, October 22
4:31 PM: As a result of Russian strikes on Nikopol, a 71-year-old local resident died, the National Police reported.
● A private enterprise, two private houses, a garage, solar panels, a fence, and a road surface were damaged. The roofs of the buildings were broken, the walls and windows were mutilated.
7:36 PM: In the afternoon, the Russians shelled Nikopol with heavy artillery, Serhii Lysak, the head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA, reports.
● "4 private homes, 6 farm buildings, a car, and a power line were damaged. The shelling passed without casualties," Lysak writes.
KHERSON
Monday, October 23
9:15 AM Kherson RMA: Over the past day, the Russians have launched 73 attacks, firing 469 shells from mortars, artillery, Grads, RPGs, tanks, aircraft and UAVs. 46 shells were fired in the city of Kherson.
● They aimed at the residential quarters of the settlements of the region; a critical infrastructure object, an engineering structure, a utility company, an educational institution and a church in the Kherson district; the territory of the transport enterprise and the plant in Kherson.
11:01 AM: The SBU neutralized an anti-Ukrainian "underground" group of three people who were aiming Russian missiles and guided aerial bombs at residential buildings in Kherson*
● According to their coordinates, at the end of September of this year, the occupiers completely destroyed two private residential buildings and damaged five more in the regional center.
● As a result of the shelling, about 10 civilians received injuries of varying degrees of severity.
Sunday, October 22
1:29 PM Kherson Military Administration: At night, the invaders hit Stanislav. More than 30 residential buildings were damaged.
● There is also the destruction of a lyceum, shops, a church, and a building of a communal enterprise. There is a hit on the power line and the gas pipeline.
● And around 10:30, the enemy fired 4 anti-tank missiles at a settlement in the Kherson district.
5:41 PM: Since the beginning of this day, 12 guided aerial bombs have been released on populated areas of the Kherson region, — OVA.
● There were hits in Kherson district and three villages of Beryslav district.
● "At the same time, Kherson came under fire. In the city, houses, buildings of transport and food enterprises were hit," the report says.
6:58 PM Kherson Municipal Military Administration: Russians are shelling the center of Kherson.
8:56 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
9:27 PM Kherson Municipal Military Administration: the Russians resumed shelling of Kherson.
● "Special attention to the residents of the central part and Dnipro district of the city," the message reads.
11:24 PM Kherson RMA: the Russians released 12 guided aerial bombs on the right bank of the Kherson region per day.
● There were hits in the Kherson district and three villages of the Berislav district.
● Kherson was also under fire, there were hits in houses, buildings of transport and food enterprises.
ODESA
Monday, October 23
8:25 AM: 9 BpLa shot down in Odesa by air defense forces, OK "Pivden".
● The roof of the warehouse building of the port infrastructure was damaged. The fire was extinguished. People were not injured.
KIROVOHRAD
Monday, October 23
3:07 AM: Strike drones (presumably "Shahed") in Kirovohrad region. Direction of movement to the north. The Air Defense Forces in the region work - the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
KHMELNITSKY
Monday, October 23
5:42 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Khmelnytskyi region. Previously - air defense work.
6:44 AM: In Khmelnytskyi OVA confirmed the work of air defense against enemy targets this night.
● "Another enemy attack on Khmelnytskyi region. And again our air defense forces are on the defensive.
● As of this time, there is no information about victims or damage to property," Serhiy Tyurin, the first deputy head of the OVA, said.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/47.9070/37.6927