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News From the Battlefield
ATACMS Strikes - As expected, both “Reporting from Ukraine” and the “Latest Denys,” focus on the 2 ATACMS strikes in Berdyansk and Luhansk, especially the destruction of Russian helicopters that have served to limit Ukraine’s use of tanks in their counteroffensive. Some other takeaways:
· ATACMS gives no warning. They fly at approximately Mach 3, whereas cruise missiles are sub-sonic, giving Russians no time to move their assets out of harm’s way.
· They use the HIMARS launcher, rather than air launched using the Su-24, providing even less warning because Russia can no longer be alerted by observing a Su-24 taking off.
· The US sent Ukraine the shorter-range version of ATACMS (165km) with cluster munitions.
· Cluster munitions tend to be more effective in destroying Russian assets on the ground, than does the ATACMS version with a unitary warhead.
· The shorter-range version carries 3 times more bomblets, 950 than the longer-range version that carries only 300 bomblets (“Reporting From Ukraine”)
· As Denys shows in his maps, all the major Russian helicopter bases are now within range, including Dzhankoi. Located in Northern Crimea, Dzhankoi is Russian supply hub with, according to Denys, a bigger helicopter base than Berdyansk.
· Russian airbases further south in Crimea are out of ATACMS range but, as was shown last year, not out of the range of Ukrainian fixed wing aircraft firing HARMS missiles.
· Russia may move its helicopters further south, but by doing so they become far less effective against the Ukrainian counteroffensive because they’ll have to fly much longer distances.
Kherson – For several weeks I have been speculating on a possible Ukrainian attack across the Dnipro. If successful, it would give Ukraine 3 major advantages:
· It reduces the route toward Crimea.
· It potentially threatens Tokmak from the rear.
· It provides a land entry to re-taking the Kinburn Spit, which may result in freeing up the Port of Mykolaiv.
Recent reports state that Ukraine has re-taken the town of Poima, on the Left Bank of the Dnipro, just upstream from Kherson City (
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1714614314097602646).
If true it would be the deepest penetration Ukraine has achieved on the Left Bank and would be the 3rd Ukrainian lodgment on the Left Bank, including near the destroyed Antonovsky Bridge and Kozachi Lahiri, closer to Nova Khakovka. The latter is the largest, in terms of land area.
This Substack post, entitled “Ukrainian Options in the Kherson Direction,” provides an excellent analysis on the order of battle and what might happen next.
Ukraine is now in the position of controlling a significant portion of the Left Bank of the Dnipro and, increasingly because of its riverine force, controlling the Dnipro Delta. They will eventually have to bridge the river, to allow heavy equipment to cross.
10/18/2023 Sitrep
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Wednesday, October 18
12:11 AM: The plane of the German chancellor was evacuated before departure from Israel due to a missile threat.
● When the alarm started, the passengers had to get off the plane and lie on the ground. Scholz was taken by car to the airport building, where there is a shelter.
● The plane later took off from Tel Aviv.
12:44 AM: In Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, demonstrators are destroying the UN representative building.
12:54 AM: In the 20 months since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian Federation has become dependent on China in all areas of its economy, - Bloomberg.
● China's exports to Russia this year grew by 57%, about half of the value of all currency transactions in Moscow in September was in yuan.
8:23 AM: Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir protested sending humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, - Israeli portal Ynet.
8:23 AM: Hamas ready to release all civilian hostages within an hour if Israel stops airstrikes on Gaza, NBC News.
8:23 AM: US President Joe Biden was scheduled to meet with the King of Jordan, the heads of Palestine and Egypt in Amman, but canceled the trip due to the announcement of mourning in Palestine for those killed in an attack on a hospital in Gaza, - White House.
8:23 AM: Canada announced that it has imposed new sanctions against nine Moldovan nationals linked to Russian oligarchs and six TV channels that broadcast Russian propaganda. This is reported on the website of the Government of Canada.
11:00 AM: Joe Biden has arrived in Israel. The US President's plane landed in Tel Aviv.
11:40 AM: The US has sent about 20 ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, one of the conditions of the provision is not to use them for attacks on the territory of Russia.
Tuesday, October 17
3:16 PM: Lithuania will repair Leopard tanks that were damaged at the front in Ukraine, the country's Ministry of Defense reports.
● After restoration of technical capacity, combat vehicles will be returned to the front.
3:46 PM: The European Parliament approved the creation of the Ukrainian Fund for 50 billion euros in the period 2024-2027.
● 512 EP deputies voted "for" such an initiative, 45 spoke "against" and another 63 "abstained". 50 billion euros will be allocated for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine.
5:26 PM: Palestinian militants from the Hamas group used North Korean weapons to attack Israel, Israel's ambassador to South Korea, Akiva Tor, said.
● "We will destroy these weapons in Gaza," he added.
5:46 PM: The US secretly sent a small batch of missiles with a range of about 100 miles, The Wall Street Journal reports.
● This range of damage (up to 165 km) has the basic version of the MGM-140A ATACMS Block 1 with a cluster warhead consisting of 950 bombs of the M74 type.
● In addition, the Russian military has published a photo, as it is claimed, of the wreckage of the missile that attacked the Berdyansk airfield. The MGM-140A ATACMS Block 1 marking is clearly visible on the missile body.
8:38 PM: Canada today announced the introduction of sanctions against Russian collaborators in Moldova. They are engaged in destabilizing the situation in the country.
● This is reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Canada.
9:20 PM: Russia, China and Iran are involved in the militant attack on Israel, the chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Republican McCaul.
● "Representatives of Hamas were in Moscow right before their brutal invasion of Israel. The fact is this: Russia, China and Iran are involved in this and are working to undermine US interests around the world," he emphasized.
10:30 PM: Hamas says IDF attack on Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza could kill hundreds, BBC and Reuters report.
● According to a spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, they are verifying information about the strike. "I don't know if it was inflicted by Israel," the official said.
● According to a preliminary investigation by the Israel Defense Forces, the explosion at a hospital in Gaza was caused by an unsuccessful launch of a rocket by Hamas, the i24 TV channel reports with reference to the IDF.
10:50 PM: Erdogan in "X" made a statement about "immediate measures" after the explosion at a hospital in Gaza
● Meanwhile, Israel's National Security Council called on all Israelis to leave Turkey as soon as possible after accusing Erdogan of attacking a Baptist hospital, media reported.
11:07 PM: The White House on Tuesday evening officially confirmed that Ukraine recently received long-range ATACMS missiles in a modification that has a range of 165 kilometers.
● This was reported by the representative of the US National Security Council, Adrienne Watson
● "We believe that this will provide a significant strengthening of Ukraine's capabilities on the battlefield without risking our military readiness," Watson added.
11:21 PM: Following reports of an attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip, Hamas supporters have set fire to the Israeli embassy in the Jordanian capital, Amman, and are attempting to storm it.
11:44 PM: Biden plans to ask Congress for about $100 billion in aid to Ukraine and Israel — Bloomberg
● Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday he expects the administration to send the request "by the end of this week."
● "We would like to receive an additional package as soon as possible, because the needs are great both in Israel and in Ukraine," he said.
NATIONAL
Wednesday, October 18
12:01 AM: Kharkiv, Donetsk regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
12:24 AM: The Ministry of Health has extended to 90 days the validity of electronic prescriptions for medicines that the patient buys with his own money.
● At the same time, the validity period of prescriptions for narcotic drugs remains 10 days, and for drugs that are released on preferential terms - 30 calendar days.
12:47 AM: Kherson, Mykolaiv regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
1:33 AM: Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk region - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
1:48 AM: Mykolayivska, Kherson region - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
2:54 AM: Enemy tactical aircraft activity observed in southeast direction.
● There is a threat of using aviation weapons.
7:27 AM: Situation update of General Staff of UAF regarding russian invasion as of 6 a.m., October 18
● During the day of October 17, there were 69 combat engagements. The enemy launched a total of 3 missile and 35 air strikes, 39 MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements. Also, the russian occupiers launched yet another missile and air strike on Ukraine, using 1 Kh-59 air-launched cruise missile, S-300 surface-to-air guided missiles and 6x Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs. The Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 1 Kh-59 air-launched cruise missile and 6x Shaheds.
● Air strikes hit Mykolaivka (Sumy oblast), Serebryanske forestry and Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Spirne, Vesele, New York, Avdiivka, Stepove, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Urozhaine, Staromaiorske, Rivnopil (Donetsk oblast), Beryslav, Vesele (Kherson oblast) .
● About 100 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts came under artillery fire.
● Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: the adversary maintains its military presence in the areas of russia bordering Ukraine. The adversary increases the density of minefields along the state border in Belgorod oblast (russia).
● “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group, Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian soldiers repelled more than 15 enemy attacks in the vicinities of Synkivka, Ivanivka and Kyslivka (Kharkiv oblast), and 9 more attacks near Nadiya (Luhansk oblast).
● Bakhmut axis: The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut (Donetsk oblast).
● “Tavria” Operational-Strategic Group, Avdiyivka axis: the enemy keeps trying to encircle Avdiyivka. Thus, Ukrainian troops repelled 5 enemy attacks in that area.
● Maryinka and Shakhtarske axis: the Ukrainian defenders repelled over 20 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast), and 2 more attacks south of Zolota Nyva and south of Prechystivka (Donetsk oblast).
● Zaporizhzhia axis: the enemy made unsuccessful attempts to regain the lost ground southwest of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
● “Odesa” Operational-Strategic Group, Kherson axis: the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct counter-battery fire, launching successful strikes behind the enemy lines.
● The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on Melitopol axis, have partial success in the area south of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
● During the day of October 17, the Ukrainian Air Force launched 15 air strikes on the concentrations of troops, weapons and military equipment, 3 air strikes on anti-air missile systems of the adversary.
● The Ukrainian missile troops hit 5 command posts, 1 concentration of troops, weapons and military equipment, 1 ammunition depot and 1 artillery system of the russian invaders.
9:49 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia.
11:48 AM: Donetsk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy regions:
● The threat of the use of ballistic weapons for the eastern and southeastern regions - the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Tuesday, October 17
12:04 PM: Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
1:35 PM: NABU is looking for the current People's Deputy of Ukraine, Yaroslav Dubnevich, in the case of gas embezzlement in the amount of more than 2.1 billion hryvnias.
● According to the investigation, during the years 2013-2017, Dubnevich organized a scheme for the theft of gas by the officials of the Novoyavorivska and Novorozdilska thermal power plants under his control in the amount of more than 2.1 billion hryvnias.
1:51 PM: Sumy and Chernihiv regions - activity of enemy army aviation along the border, — Ukrainian Air Command.
1:53 PM: Special operations forces have confirmed an attack on airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk.
● As a result of the "DRAGONFLY" operation, nine helicopters of various modifications, special equipment, an air defense launcher, and an ammunition depot were destroyed. Airfield runways were also damaged. Losses in the enemy's manpower amount to dozens of dead and wounded. Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble.
2:29 PM: The SBU eliminated 4 more "evasion schemes": one of them involved the fictitious marriage of persons with disabilities.
● 4 mobilization evasion schemes operated in Odesa, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. The cost of "services" was estimated from 3 to 12.5 thousand US dollars. The amount depended on the urgency of departure and the method of escape abroad.
● Thanks to the prompt response of the Security Service of Ukraine, it was possible to prevent the illegal transfer of more than a hundred potential conscripts to the countries of the European Union.
3:00 PM: Verkhovna Rada has restored lifetime status and checks on politically significant persons.
● The draft law clarifies the terms of granting such lifetime status to politically significant persons (Politically Exposed Persons) and their entourage. The specifics of checking such clients by banks are also clarified.
4:00 PM: The Ministry of Defense simplified the write-off of military property lost in battle, the ministry's press service said.
● "Equipment worth up to 1.5 million hryvnias will be able to be written off by the commanders of individual companies, battalions or brigades," - said the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Rustem Umyerov.
● The head of the Ministry of Defense also gave the following example: previously, it was necessary to collect up to 40 documents to decommission a drone, and it took from one month to six months. Now the approved changes will shorten the procedure to 2-3 weeks.
4:13 PM: Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odesa, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Vinnytsia regions.
● The threat of using ballistic weapons in the regions - the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
4:55 PM: According to the SBI's materials, the head of Shostky RVA, who illegally took property from Ukrainian companies under the guise of nationalization, will appear in court.
● On the night before the Russian Federation's large-scale aggression against Ukraine, more than 40 Russian railway cars carrying products of Ukrainian companies arrived on the territory of our country. The head of the district military administration decided to seize this property. As a result, Ukrainian companies suffered losses of almost 30 million hryvnias.
5:37 PM: Mykolaiv and Kherson regions - Threat of using aviation weapons, - Ukrainian Air Command.
7:06 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyi: "Today there is a necessary decision of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine - necessary for the start of negotiations with the European Union. The Law on Politically Exposed Persons has been adopted.
● I am waiting for the text of the law to be signed. Our task remains the same – to be ready to open negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU this year.
● We are performing and will perform the Ukrainian part of the work for this. We expect a political decision on the start of negotiations from the leaders of the EU countries."
7:08 PM: Poltava, Sumy region - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
7:26 PM: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Since the beginning of the day, Russian troops have launched another air-missile attack on Ukraine, using an Kh-59 guided air missile, S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 6 Shahed-136/131 type attack UAVs.
● One Kh-59 guided air missile and 6 "shahids" were destroyed by air defense forces and means.
● During the day, 56 combat clashes took place.
● The enemy launched 3 missile and 34 air strikes, fired 6 rocket salvo fire systems at the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● Defense forces of Ukraine continue the offensive operation in the Melitopol direction, offensive (assault) actions in the Bakhmut direction, inflicting losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
● During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces made 15 strikes on areas where the enemy's personnel, weapons and military equipment were concentrated, and 3 strikes on the enemy's anti-aircraft missile systems.
● Units of the missile forces hit 5 control points, the area of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, an ammunition depot and an enemy artillery.
10:19 PM: International driver's license delivery has started. Currently, rights can be ordered by "Ukrposhta" abroad, - the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
● You can order the delivery in the driver's electronic account.
11:36 PM: Ukraine returned another child deported by the Russian Federation.
● As Dmytro Lubinets, the human rights representative of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, said, the boy can already hug his relatives.
11:47 PM: Ukraine defeated Malta in the Euro 2024 qualifier - 3:1.
● This victory allowed Ukraine to rise to second place in the group standings. Ukraine will play the decisive match for direct entry to Euro-2024 against Italy.
MORDOR - ruZZia
Wednesday, October 18
5:46 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Yevpatoria and Saksky district in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
6:19 AM: Six drones were allegedly shot down in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation at night, said the governor of the Belgorod region of Russia, Vyacheslav Gladkov.
● Earlier, the governor of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, Roman Starovoit, reported that 12 drones were allegedly shot down in Kursk and the Kursk region.
11:59 AM: The SBU attacked a military camp near the Halino airfield in the Kursk region.
● Our sources in the SBU confirm that it was the Security Service that organized the "cotton" tonight in the field camp of the Russians near the village of Postoyali Dvory. Up to 3,000 Russian soldiers and about 80 units of military equipment were stationed here, not far from the "Khalino" military airfield.
● Currently, the exact number of enemy casualties is being clarified, but the damage was powerful - at least 18 SBU drone hits on the camp were recorded.
Tuesday, October 17
12:57 PM: Putin met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Beijing, media.
3:30 PM: Russia's destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP dam caused almost $14 billion in damage to Ukraine, according to a comprehensive report by the Ukrainian government and the UN.
● The initial estimate of total recovery needs is $5.04 billion, and that number is expected to rise as more detailed assessments are made. It is noted that in the short term, $1.82 billion will be needed for recovery measures in 2023/2024.
REGIONS
SUMY
Tuesday, October 17
1:01 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Bilopylla district of the Sumy region,
KHARKIV
Wednesday, October 18
9:41 AM: In the Kharkiv region, a 52-year-old man died as a result of an explosive device detonation, - State Emergency Service.
● A tractor with unknown ammunition exploded in a field in the territory of Izyum district. The tractor driver, a man born in 1971, died on the spot.
11:52 AM: The head of the Kharkiv RMA Oleg Sinegubov said that the Russians are striking.
LUHANSK
Tuesday, October 17
4:21 PM: The SBU reported a new charge against the leader of the "LNR" Leonid Pasichnyk.
● The law enforcement officers announced to Pasichnyk that he is suspected of participating in, organizing and holding illegal elections and voluntarily being elected to an illegal authority in the temporarily occupied territory.
● He faces up to 10 years in prison and confiscation of property. Since the offender is hiding in the temporarily occupied territory, he is wanted.
DONETSK
Tuesday, October 17
3:03 PM: Donetsk region - the threat of using aviation weapons for front-line areas, - Ukrainian Air Command.
ZAPORIZHIA
Wednesday, October 18
1:34 AM Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Zaporizhzhia.
1:49 AM Social Networks: 5 explosions were heard in Zaporizhzhia.
5:08 AM Zaporizhia City Secretary: As a result of enemy rocket fire, an apartment building was destroyed. At this time, it is known about one dead person, there are wounded and traumatized.
● A search and rescue operation is underway. All relevant services are working on the spot, municipal buses have been involved, and the nearest shopping center has been deployed.
5:19 AM Zaporizhia City Secretary: At this time, two dead and four injured are known. Three more people are considered missing, -
● Apartments in two entrances to the building were partially destroyed.
● People continue to be helped in communal buses, the city council tent and the nearest Point of Invincibility.
5:44 AM Zaporizhia RMA: Tonight, the Russians launched 6 missile strikes on the territory of Zaporizhia, - the head of Zaporizhia OVA Yury Malashko
● 8 apartments of an apartment building in the city center were damaged. All residents of the building will be provided with temporary housing.
● The relevant utility services continue to eliminate the consequences of the night attack of the Russian Federation on Zaporozhye.
8:37 AM: The Ministry of Internal Affairs published footage of the rescue of a victim from the rubble in Zaporizhzhia.
● As a result of an enemy attack, the entrance of a residential building from the 5th to the 3rd floor was destroyed. Professional services evacuated about 50 residents of the building.
11:20 AM: In Zaporizhzhia, at the site where a Russian missile hit a high-rise building, there is a serious threat of structural collapse.
● This was stated by Yuliya Barysheva, spokeswoman of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Tuesday, October 17
2:42 PM: Zaporizhzhia region - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
5:11 PM: New footage has emerged showing the burning of the airfield in the temporarily occupied Berdyansk after the arranged "cotton".
● The video shows that the damage is quite serious.
8:25 PM: Zaporizhzhia region - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
8:58 PM: "The defense forces have partial success in the area west of Verbovoy and have advanced to a distance of about a kilometer," said the spokesman of the joint press center of the Defense Forces of the Tavri direction, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun.
DNIPRO
Wednesday, October 18
10:22 AM: The SBU detained a traitor in the Dnipropetrovsk region who worked for the Kremlin "military officer" Tatarsky.
● According to the investigation, the agent turned out to be a resident of one of the cities near the Dnipro. The enemy informer has two convictions and a total prison "service" of almost 8 years.
● The perpetrator is currently in custody. He faces life imprisonment.
10:45 AM Dnipro RMA: As a result of the Russian attack, one person died. Three people were injured - the head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA Serhiy Lysak.
● "We are clarifying the consequences of the attack. We already know about 6 damaged houses," he said.
11:05 AM: Russia struck the civilian population in Obukhivka, Dnipropetrovsk region. A 31-year-old woman died, 4 were injured, the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
● 8 private houses in the residential sector were demolished. Rescuers, policemen, medical service are working. The wounded are being helped.
KHERSON
Wednesday, October 18
1:27 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kherson region.
9:20 AM Kherson RMA: Over the past day, the enemy carried out 70 shellings of the Kherson region, firing 404 shells from mortars, artillery, Grads, BMPs, tanks, aviation and UAVs. The enemy fired 16 shells at the city of Kherson.
● the Russian military took aim at the residential quarters of the populated areas of the region; the building of the educational institution, the railway transport enterprise, the territory of the park and the embankment in Kherson.
● As a result of Russian aggression, 6 people were injured.
10:00 AM Kherson RMA: the Russians released two guided aerial bombs on three settlements of the Kherson region, - head of the OVA Oleksandr Prokudin.
Tuesday, October 17
12:06 PM Kherson RMA: Arrival in Kherson to the territory of the transport enterprise. Initially, one person was injured.
12:39 PM: Three children from the occupied part of the Kherson region were returned to Ukraine — two boys aged 10 and 6 and a girl aged 8, the Ministry of Reintegration reports.
● Last week, a 9-year-old girl and her 14-year-old brother returned from there.
12:52 PM Kherson RMA: As a result of shelling of a transport enterprise in Kherson, two workers were injured.
● These are 52-year-old men. They are hospitalized with mine and explosive injuries. Their further examination is ongoing.
4:03 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Skadovsk of Kherson region.
4:39 PM: The Russian army again shelled a residential area of Kherson.
● Two women aged 57 and 66 were injured. High-rise buildings and private houses were damaged.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio