By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
The Ukraine War Ebook, “The Ukrainian People vs. The Russian Horde”
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Arrival of the ATACMS
It has been reported that Ukraine received several ATACMS missiles, and they’ve already used them, against airbases in Luhansk and Berdyansk.
It was reported that Russia lost 9 helicopters at the Berdyansk Airport. This is where Russia bases its KA-52 “Alligator” attack helicopter, that has proven to be particularly deadly for Ukrainian tanks. Russia has already lost several KA-52s. Losing more might help speed up Ukraine’s offensive directed at Tokmak because, among other things, it will allow Ukraine more flexibility to use its tanks.
Unlike the arrival of most weapons deliveries to Ukraine, the United States did not announce the delivery of ATACMS in advance. The US should stop making any announcements about weapons deliveries. Not making the announcement about ATACMS kept Russia guessing and made it more likely that Russia kept their assets in places where ATACMS could hit them.
Semiconductors in Russian Missiles and Iranian Drones
Last evening, while working out at the gym, I listened to a fascinating interview (starts in the 32nd minute) with Damien Spleeters of Conflict Armament Research, a firm that tracks foreign weapons into war zones. The subject was tracking components found in Russian weapons, from cruise missiles and helicopters down to radios and other electronic devices, and Iranian drones that had targeted Ukraine. Some takeaways:
· So far they’ve identified 150 non-Russian companies that have either produced or distributed components found in Russian weapons systems.
· They can develop a picture of how Russia gets these components.
· Most components acquired before the invasion, likely to stockpile before sanctions.
· They only started seeing components fabricated after February 2022 this years, suggesting to Spleeters that Russia is now running out of components and must replenish.
· Traditional distributors serving the Russian market are now getting components from Asia, including Hong Kong and China.
· Spleeters said that 50% of the components in Russian weapons come from the US, 20% from Europe including the UK, and 20% from Asia. He said that 80-85% of the components found in Iranian drones come from the US.
· Many of the manufacturers they contacted were surprised that their chips were being put to military uses. As is well known, Russia has been pulling chips out of household appliances, like washers and dryers.
· Some Shaheed drones are using a navigation system that allows it to be impervious to jamming.
· For sanction purposes, it’s important to find the companies who are supplying components to systems produced/assembled in Russia.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” focuses on the salient around Robotyne. He states that Ukraine is now within 12km of Tokmak (7.45 miles), and they now occupy most of the high ground around Robotyne and in the direction of Tokmak. Based on my own experience, Ukraine has 6 – 7 weeks of good weather before the soft ground will make it more difficult to maneuver.
10/17/2023 Sitrep
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Tuesday, October 17
8:06 AM: US President Joe Biden will make a support visit to Israel and Jordan on Wednesday, October 18, - United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
11:15 AM: As of 10:30 in Poland, 100% of votes have been counted, - Gazeta Wyborcza.
● "Law and Justice" lost 14 seats in the Senate and gained a total of 34 seats, while the opposition will be represented by 66 senators.
● The ruling party "Rights and Justice" is in the lead - it has 35.38% of the vote. In second place is the "Civil Coalition" with 30.70% of votes.
Monday, October 16
1:58 PM: Through the mediation of Qatar, Ukrainian children were returned to Ukraine from Russia, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar reported.
● The children passed through the Qatari embassy in Moscow and went home by different routes. One child has already returned to Ukraine via the Baltic states and Poland, another is on his way via Qatar with his mother, and the remaining two are expected to go to Ukraine via Qatar later this week, the Financial Times reports.
3:42 PM: Latvia has finally closed the two checkpoints Vientuli and Pededze on the border with Russia, Latvian Interior Minister Rihard Kozlovskis said.
● At present, concrete blocks have been installed at the checkpoint, and the checkpoints have not been left without visual observation. Border guards from Vientuli and Pededze will be redirected to other checkpoints.
5:21 PM: A Liberian-flagged oil tanker hit a mine off the coast of Romania in the Black Sea, which detonated, Sky News.
● The Ali Najafov tanker suffered minor damage as a result of yesterday's incident, while the crew was not injured.
● This is the second vessel this month that was hit by a floating mine in Romania’s territorial waters.
7:27 PM: IDF announces elimination of Hamas intelligence chief, The Times of Israel.
9:07 PM: The Israel Defense Forces began shelling the Gaza Strip from ships, the IDF said.
● According to the IDF, they attacked a weapons production facility, an outpost and an observation post of the Hamas Naval Forces.
10:00 PM: Aid to Ukraine remains top priority despite Israel's war with Hamas.
● This was announced by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic Jan Lipavskyi.
● "We should pay attention to all conflicts and something that threatens us. That's why Ukraine is still in the first place," said Lypavskyi.
10:46 PM: US selects 2,000 troops for possible transfer to Israel, - WSJ.
● According to the publication, the servicemen are tasked with providing advisory and medical assistance, and they represent the entire US Armed Forces.
● It is noted that currently servicemen are stationed both in the Middle East and beyond, in particular in Europe.
11:00 PM: There was a shooting in the center of Brussels. Previously, two Swedish citizens were killed. The attacker is still at large.
● Belgian media reported that the man shouted "Allahu Akbar" during the attack, and before the shooting he recorded a video in which he identified himself as a member of ISIS and said he was "taking revenge for Muslims."
● It should be noted that on October 16, a football match between the national teams of Belgium and Sweden will take place in Brussels as part of the qualifying round for the 2024 European Championship.
11:10 PM: Belgium-Sweden match abandoned due to murder of two Swedish fans - media.
● Due to the shooting in Brussels, the maximum, fourth level of alarm was introduced - it reflects a "serious and imminent threat".
11:26 PM: NATO has started annual exercises to defend its territory with the help of nuclear weapons, the organization's press service said.
● Exercise Steadfast Noon will continue until Thursday, October 26, in the skies over Italy, Croatia and some other Mediterranean countries.
● A total of 13 countries will participate in them and up to 60 aircraft will be involved, including B-52 bombers.
NATIONAL
Tuesday, October 17, 2023
12:25 AM: Donetsk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia regions - Threat of using ballistic weapons in the regions - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
1:18 AM: Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
3:11 AM: Kirovohrad, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk regions - Air alert related to the activity of enemy tactical aviation, - Ukrainian Air Command.
● Dnipropetrovsk region - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
3:42 AM: Repulse of missile danger in regions, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
6:00 AM: Situation update of General Staff of UAF regarding russian invasion as of October 17, 2023
● In the early hours of October 17, the russian occupiers launched yet another missile and air strike on Ukraine, using 1x Kh-59 air-launched guided missile, S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, and 6x Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs. The air defense forces shot 1x Kh-59 guided missile and 6x enemy Shahed-136/131 UAVs.
● During the day of October 16, there were 72x combat engagements. The enemy launched a total of 10x missile and 68x air strikes, 87x MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements.
● Air strikes hit Buchky (Chernihiv oblast), Pershotravneve, Pishchane (Kharkiv oblast), Siversk, Zvanivka, Spirne, Klishchiivka, Novoselivka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, Novomykhailivka, Staromaiorske (Donetsk oblast), Mykolaivka, Kozatske, Odradokamyanka, Beryslav, Tyahynka , and Ivanivka (Kherson oblast).
● About 120x settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts came under artillery fire.
● Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: the adversary maintains its military presence in the areas of russia bordering Ukraine. The enemy troops conduct active subversive activities in order to prevent the deployment of Ukrainian troops to threatened axes. The adversary increases the density of minefields along the state border in Belgorod oblast (russia).
● Khortytsia operational-strategic group, Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian soldiers repelled about 15x enemy attacks in the vicinities of Synkivka, Ivanivka (Kharkiv oblast), and 5x more attacks near Stelmakhivka and Nadiya (Luhansk oblast).
● Bakhmut axis: the Ukrainian defenders repelled 3x enemy attacks in the vicinity of Andriivka (Donetsk oblast). The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue assault operations south of Bakhmut (Donetsk oblast).
● Tavria operational-strategic group, Avdiivka axis: the enemy keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. Thus, Ukrainian troops repelled more than 10x enemy attacks during the day of October 16.
● Maryinka and Shakhtarske axes: the Ukrainian defenders repelled over 15x enemy attacks in the vicinity of Maryinka (Donetsk oblast), and 5x more attacks south of Zolota Nyva and south of Prechystivka (Donetsk oblast).
● Zaporizhzhia axis: our defenders prevented the loss of positions southwest of Novodanylivka, Robotyne, and west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
● The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their offensive operation on Melitopol axis, have partial success in the area west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast). Ukrainian soldiers inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupation forces, exhausting the enemy all along the front line.
● During the day of October 16, the Ukrainian Air Force launched 4x air strikes on the concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment of the adversary.
● The Ukrainian missile troops hit 2x helicopters at their landing sites, 1x ammunition depot, and 1x artillery system of the russian invaders.
7:27 AM: At night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck helicopters and equipment of Russian troops at airfields near occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk, - Strategic Communications Center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
7:42 AM: Tonight, air defense forces destroyed 6 attack UAVs and one guided air missile, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● On the night of October 17, the enemy fired six Shahed UAVs from the area of Cape Chuada (Crimea) and one Kh-59 guided missile from a Su-34 aircraft from the airspace of the occupied Kherson region.
10:01 AM: Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk regions - Threat of using ballistic weapons - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Monday, October 16
1:10 PM: The Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia and the head of the OSCE Bujar Osmani arrived on a visit to Kyiv.
● Osmani already managed to visit one of the Kyiv schools that was shelled by the Russian Federation.
2:13 PM: The army of drones hit 428 units of Russian equipment in a week, - the head of the Ministry of Statistics Mykhailo Fedorov.
● During the Russian offensive on Avdiivka, drones proved to be very effective in defense and destruction of equipment. So the Russians have minus 101 guns, 88 armored vehicles, 75 tanks and a lot of other equipment.
2:35 PM: Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts - Threat of use of aviation weapons, — Air Force Base of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
3:17 PM: Since 2021, the number of women in the Ukrainian army has increased by 12 thousand, that is, by 40 percent, — the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
● Currently, almost 43,000 female military personnel are serving. The Ministry of Defense canceled all restrictions on the access of female military personnel to all positions and provided an opportunity for military education at all levels.
4:54 PM: 1,330 tons of aid worth a quarter of a billion hryvnias for 265,000 military and civilians, "Ukrainian Team" showed how they helped during the 600 days of the war
● "These figures are a simple proof that together we are a great "Ukrainian team". We are working! We are winning!" - stressed the volunteer staff.
5:44 PM: During the 600 days of the full-scale invasion, National Police investigators launched more than 97,700 criminal proceedings, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.
And to yourself:
● More than 83,490 – violations of the laws and customs of war;
● Over 9,200 – encroachment on the territorial integrity and inviolability of Ukraine;
● Over 3,400 – collaborative activities;
● More than 200 - high treason.
6:07 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyi met with Penny Pritzker, the US special representative for the economic recovery of Ukraine.
● "First of all, we discussed the protection of our energy infrastructure and the need to rebuild Ukraine. As well as macro-financial support for our country and the fair use of frozen Russian assets," Zelenskyy writes.
● Also, as the president noted, Ukraine is interested in attracting private American investments to long-term projects in the agricultural sector, mechanical engineering, and chemical production.
6:45 PM: The SBI reported suspicion of aiding and abetting the commission of treason against the former heads of the SBU during Yanukovych's time and twenty employees of the FSB of the Russian Federation.
● "Also, suspicions of treason were reported to the former head of the SBU, his first deputy - the head of the Anti-Terrorist Center and the head of the Department for the Protection of National Statehood of the SBU during Yanukovych's time," - writes the press service of the SBU.
● It was established that, with the assistance of the FSB of the Russian Federation, the then leadership of the SBU took part in undermining sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability, defense capability, state and information security.
7:10 PM: The Ministry of Digital Affairs has published an up-to-date instruction — "How to make the Internet stable during blackouts."
7:36 PM: Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhia regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
7:53 PM: Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on October 16:
● "At the beginning of the day, the Russian occupiers launched another air and missile attack on Ukraine, using five Kh-59 guided missiles, one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 12 Shahed-136/131 type attack UAVs.
● Two Kh-59 missiles and 11 Shahed missiles were destroyed by air defense forces and means.
● "There were 53 combat clashes during the day.
● In total, the enemy launched 6 missile and 39 air strikes, carried out 16 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● As a result of the Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population."
● "During the day, the Air Force of the Defense Forces carried out 4 strikes on areas where the enemy's personnel, weapons and military equipment were concentrated.
● Units of the missile forces hit 1 enemy artillery.
8:05 PM: Mykolaiv and Kherson regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
8:30 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyi had a telephone conversation with the President of Finland Sauli Niinisto.
● "He thanked for the 19th package of defense aid from Finland and effective participation in the implementation of the Peace Formula, in particular the clause on radiation and nuclear safety," Zelenskyy writes.
● The leaders of the countries also discussed security challenges in the Middle East and the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.
10:15 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyi had a telephone conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
● "During the telephone conversation, they discussed the implementation of the agreements reached during my visit to Canada. In particular, regarding the development of our hydro generation and the completion of the Holodomor-genocide museum," the president noted.
● They discussed, in particular, the continuation of defense cooperation, global security challenges.
MORDOR - ruZZia
Tuesday, October 17
12:05 AM: North Korea has established regular supplies of ammunition to Russia.
● Experts from the British Royal Institute of Defense Research analyzed satellite images of the Russian base in Fokino (Prymorsky Krai) and the North Korean port of Rason. Between them, since August, the flights of the Russian dry cargo ships "Angara" and "Maria", which belong to legal entities connected with military logistics, have been recorded.
● They took out several hundred containers and hid their geolocation during the flights. Already from the Russian base, the same containers ended up at the ammunition warehouse in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, 200 km from the border with Ukraine.
3:22 AM: In temporarily occupied Berdyansk, explosions were heard at the location of the Russian military.
8:06 AM: Russia is trying to hide losses and failures in the war with Ukraine, - ISW.
8:06 AM: Putin flew to Xi Jinping in Beijing. This is his second visit abroad after the issuance of an arrest warrant. Putin will take part in the Belt and Road Forum, which will include the leaders of Vietnam, Thailand, Mongolia and Laos, Reuters.
9:47 AM: Aksyonov, the so-called "head" of the temporarily occupied Crimea, reports that during the night on the approach to Crimea, eight UAVs were "suppressed" by EW and shot down by air defense forces.
Monday, October 16
1:27 PM: The authorities of the Russian Federation continue to carry out "shadow" mobilization, — representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Yusov.
● "Mobilization measures continue, and we are talking about tens of thousands of people per month... No matter how the dictatorship treats the population, no matter how it ignores democratic public opinion, they are afraid - they are afraid of a riot... However, the machine is being prepared for new waves of mobilization," he said he.
● The HUR emphasized that total mobilization does not stop in the temporarily enemy-occupied part of the Ukrainian Donbass.
1:42 PM: According to the estimates of the "Belarusian Gayun" monitoring group, there may be up to 1,000 "Wagnerians" in Belarus as of now.
● According to the latest data, at the end of September, there were approximately 1,040 pieces of equipment and 99 tents in the camp in the village of Tsil, Mogilev region, where the mercenaries of the "Wagner" PMC were stationed.
2:38 PM: British intelligence in its report named the size of the PMK, which replaced the "Wagner" group.
● "Redut" PVC is recruiting mercenaries on the territory of Russia under the guise of "volunteers", including former members of the "Wagner" group. The group, most likely, has more than 7,000 people. They are probably controlled and financed by the Russian game.
● According to intelligence data, since the beginning of the invasion, Redoubt has taken part in hostilities in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Luhansk regions.
REGIONS
SUMY
Tuesday, October 17
10:00 AM Sumy RMA: At night, the Russians launched a mortar shelling of the Krasnopil community. 2 explosions were recorded.
10:03 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Sumy region.
11:16 AM: Sumy Region - Missile danger, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
KHARKIV
Monday, October 16
10:07 PM: Kharkiv region - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
DONETSK
Tuesday, October 17
8:35 AM: At night, the Russians hit the center of Sloviansk with rockets, - the mayor of the city, Vadym Lyakh.
● Two flights to the street. freedom Admission to the dormitory of the agricultural college. There were no casualties.
10:57 AM: The national police reported that as a result of an attack on a residential building in Sloviansk, two people are under the rubble.
● Rescuers of the Donetsk region and a consolidated unit of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine are working at the scene. Rescue operations are ongoing.
11:30 AM: During the day, the Russians shelled 6 populated areas of Donetsk region, - National Police.
● The Russians covered Pervomaiske from Hradi, killing two people. Shells hit a private house.
● As a result of the artillery strike, 3 private houses were damaged in the village of Kalinove.
Monday, October 16
12:48 PM: ZSU advanced to the railway line north of Klishchiivka — 7 km southwest of Bakhmut — Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
● Russian sources report the continuation of Ukrainian ground attacks south of Bakhmut on the Klishchiivka-Kurdyumivka-Andriivka line.
7:36 PM: Soldiers of the "Tavria" air defense system in Donetsk region have already destroyed three Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in a week.
● Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the operational-strategic group of troops "Tavria", announced this.
● "The total losses of the enemy amounted to 472 people. 36 units of the enemy's military equipment were destroyed," Tarnavskyi added.
11:45 PM: The Russian army tried to break through the defense of the positions of paratroopers of the 79th ODSHB, but Ukrainian soldiers thwarted the Russians' attempts to advance in this direction.
● the Russians used a significant number of tanks, BMP and MTLB with infantry.
● However, as the press service of the 79th ODSHB writes, the timely detection of enemy columns and the competent application of fire damage helped repel the attack of the Russian troops.
ZAPORIZHIA
Tuesday, October 16
8:50 AM Zaporizhia RMA: Over the past day, Russian military personnel have carried out 86 strikes on 14 towns and villages close to the line of fire.
● 13 reports were received about the destruction of residential buildings and infrastructure facilities. No casualties.
KHERSON
Tuesday, October 17
8:32 AM Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Kherson.
9:27 AM Kherson RMA: At night, the Russians shelled the Beryslav district from aviation. There is a hit in the hospital. The therapeutic department was damaged.
● Windows and doors are broken in the premises. Diagnostic equipment is damaged. The entrance to the territory was littered with debris. No casualties. A fire broke out in a private house as a result of the fall of another CAB.
● The Russians also targeted several villages.
10:35 AM: Russians shelled a village near Kherson, - OVA.
● According to preliminary information, a man was injured. He has a leg injury. The data is being verified.
11:45 AM Kherson RMA: Russians shelled Kherson again.
● There is a hit in the residential area. Details are being clarified.
Monday, October 16
12:12 PM: SBU detained a traitor who was spying for the enemy in Kherson
● It was established that after the enemy shelling, the attacker recorded the locations of "arrivals" and their consequences, and then sent a corresponding "report" to the aggressor.
● According to the investigation, the Russian agent turned out to be a local resident who started working for the enemy on her own initiative in June of this year.
2:58 PM: The SBU has informed about the suspicion of another 57 collaborators from the occupying "Russian Ministry of Defense" in the Kherson region, who tortured Ukrainians.
● It was found that the "recruitment" of enemy henchmen to the ranks of the occupying body was carried out by personnel officers of the FSB.
● After receiving "positions", collaborators were issued "certificates" and Russian-style uniforms, as well as firearms. This allowed them to freely move around the captured part of Kherson region and carry out punitive measures against local residents.
4:31 PM: According to the SBU, a sadistic militant who led civilians to the "shooting" of the Kherson Region was sentenced to 15 years in prison.
● As the investigation established, the convict is a former resident of the occupied Zhdanivka in Donetsk region, who voluntarily joined the terrorists in the east of Ukraine in 2014.
● At the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, he was "seconded" to the 3rd rifle platoon of the 1st company of the 5th battalion of the 109th regiment of the Southern Military District of the aggressor country.
6:05 PM: Explosions are heard in Kherson, subscribers report. We are waiting for official information.
8:45 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
10:33 PM: The enemy attacked the Kherson region with five SU planes, - Kherson OVA.
● According to preliminary information, the Russians released 9 guided aerial bombs on four populated areas. Information about the victims and destruction is being established.
MYKOLAIV
Tuesday, October 17
3:38 AM Social Networks: An explosion was heard in Voznesensk, Mykolaiv region.
ODESA
Tuesday, October 17
2:28 AM: Odesa region - threat of enemy use of attack UAVs, - Ukrainian Air Command.
2:38 AM: Enemy UAVs are moving in the direction of Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky district.
● This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
2:49 AM: Enemy UAVs — in the direction of the city of Odesa, - Ukrainian Air Command.
3:05 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Odesa region. Previously, air defense is working.
9:13 AM: The Southern Defense Forces released the results of the Odesa attack.
● Debris of downed drones destroyed the yacht club in Odessa. The building of the sailing school, hangar, civilian private boats and yachts were damaged. People were not injured.
IVANO FRANKIVSK
Monday, October 16
4:05 PM: The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine charged the commander of the security company of the Ivano-Frankivsk regional TCC, who had fraudulently enrolled the football players of the local club into military service.
● After taking the "oath", seven football players served exclusively on paper. They logged 1,100 days of service, and regularly received financial support. As a result, they caused losses to the state in the amount of almost UAH 1.5 million.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio
This map sure makes things look like a stalemate:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/one-map-summarizes-status-ukraine-war
Sad all around. So much loss of life.
Wonder when the CIA will act to insert defects into the parts supply lines? Evasion of sanctions has its own risks.