By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
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News From the Battlefield
“Russian Offensive on Avdiivka Fails”/Ukrainska Pravda. The article has a link to the more extensive analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), dated October 13th. The analysis from ISW supports the latest reports by both “Reporting From Ukraine” and “The Latest Denys.”
“Reporting From Ukraine” also covers Avdiivka. According to his report Ukrainian saboteurs destroyed a bridge behind Russian lines, that had been serving as a major supply route for Russian forces trying to attack Avdiivka from the north.
It is important to keep in mind that unlike most of the major battles now going on, relatively far from major population centers, Avdiivka is only approximately 10km. from Donetsk, Ukraine’s 3rd largest city. This should give Russia a significant logistical advantage, with very short supply lines, from the warehouses and other facilities inside Donetsk, where Russia is storing munitions, vehicles and troops.
The ”Latest Denys” has a more detailed map of the fighting around Avdiivka. He confirmed what “Reporting From Ukraine” stated, that Russia has been unable to cross the railroad running north from Avdiivka.
According to the latest Russian Defense Ministry Report, shown in the table at the end of the last “Sitrep,” Russia lost another 970 soldiers yesterday, bringing their total losses to 2,990 in the last 4 days likely mostly around Avdiivka.
At 6:00 into Denys’ report he covers the widening the salient around Robotyne, that most of the pundits had been focusing on prior to the start of Russia’s offensive near Avdiivka. Ukraine is rightly concerned about Russia’s flank attacks. At the same time it slows down Ukraine’s progress toward Tokmak, thus the pundits are once again wringing their hands.
At 9:10 into Denys’ video he has a graph showing that for the first time since the start of the war Ukraine is expending more artillery shells than Russia. The pundits have been worrying about Ukraine running out of shells.
However, Denys predicts an uptick in Russia’s use of artillery shells, thanks to the supplies that they’re now receiving from North Korea. What is unknown is how reliable the North Korean supplies really are because the shells that Russia will be receiving from North Korea have been in storage for a long period of time, and they are likely beyond their “sell by” date. Other reports state that the barrels of the Russian artillery are wearing out, adversely affecting their accuracy.
At 11:30 into Denys’ video he reports on successful attacks on 2 Russian patrol craft near Sevastopol Harbor. In one case it might’ve been a case of the Russian ship hitting its own mine. The 2nd ship was attacked by a seaborne mine.
10/14/2023 Sitrep
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Saturday, October 14
12:16 AM: Boeing/Saab is on track to supply Ukraine with long-range GLSDB bombs.
● This was stated by Jim Leary, senior business director of the Boeing Company, Global Defense reports.
12:33 AM: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Friday said during a meeting on the sidelines of the Joint Expeditionary Force summit that the UK plans to increase its military presence in Northern Europe.
● This includes the deployment of 20,000 troops to the region next year, amid concerns about Russian sabotage of critical infrastructure.
7:48 AM: Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in coming weeks, Politico
● US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that his department is monitoring the possibility that Azerbaijan may soon invade Armenia.
● He also said that the US has no plans to extend the act that allows it to provide military aid to Baku.
8:16 AM: The offensive of the Russian military in the Donbas near Avdiyivka did not come as a surprise and the US is confident that the Armed Forces will repel these attacks, - the coordinator of the National Security Council of the White House, John Kirby.
8:16 AM: Russian troops are actively setting up forward positions, mining and building engineering fortifications on the left bank of the Dnieper, fearing the development of Ukrainian offensive actions in Crimea, - ISW.
8:16 AM: An agreement will soon be reached between Cairo and Washington that will allow foreigners to leave the Gaza Strip through Egypt, - The Wall Street Journal.
8:16 AM: The US Marine Corps Expeditionary Force has begun preparations for possible participation in an evacuation operation near Israel, - CNN.
9:20 AM: As a result of shelling of the territory of Lebanon from the direction of Israel, a Reuters cameraman was killed, and six other journalists were injured, Reuters reported.
9:59 AM: Palestinian militants received millions of dollars through Garantex, the largest ruby crypto exchange located in "Moscow City" - The Wall Street Journal
● According to the publication, on the eve of the invasion of Israel, digital wallets controlled by the group "Palestinian Islamic Jihad" received transactions for more than $93 million. A similar financing system was used by Hamas militants.
Friday, October 13
1:18 PM: The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has recognized Russia as a dictatorship, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba reports.
● PACE called on Council of Europe states not to recognize Putin's legitimacy after the end of his current presidential term.
● "More than 20 years of one-man unconstitutional rule leads to crimes inside and outside the country," Kuleba said.
2:02 PM: The German government, through the German development bank KfW, allocated a grant of 76 million euros to Ukrenergo.
● "The funds will be used to finance the construction of engineering protection of substations, the installation of new high-voltage equipment, in particular autotransformers, and the modernization of the network on the border with Europe," the company's press service writes.
3:28 PM: Germany handed Ukraine a new package of military aid, according to the German government's website.
● The package includes:
o 4 multi-purpose tracked all-terrain vehicles Bandvagn 206 (BV206);
o 4 cars for border guards;
o 2 HX81 tank tractors;
o 2 trailers for tanks;
o 50 drone detection systems;
o 82 SatCom satellite communication terminals;
o 100 thousand first-aid kits;
o 27,477 backpacks.
4:35 PM: Ukraine buys 60% of the world's production of Mavic drones, excluding other UAV purchases.
● This was stated by the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal during the Kyiv International Economic Forum.
● According to him, Ukraine independently produces a line of powerful UAVs, which are making "certain technological breakthroughs" today.
4:52 PM: An employee of the Israeli embassy in Beijing was attacked and hospitalized, The Times of Israel.
● The motive of the attack is being clarified, the diplomat's condition is stable.
● It will be recalled that the day before the former leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, called for protests throughout the Muslim world in support of the Palestinians.
8:00 PM: Romania has complicated the procedure for importing Ukrainian grain to its territory, according to the official website of the country's government.
● Buyers of Ukrainian grain in Romania must provide documentary evidence and draw up a special agreement that they really need to import Ukrainian grain.
10:11 PM: The Israel Defense Forces says infantry and tanks entered Gaza today in "local raids" to clear the area of potential terrorists and search for missing Israelis.
11:46 PM: Lockheed Martin, which makes the HIMARS multiple-launch missile system, has announced an upgrade that will allow it to hit moving targets. This was reported by The Defense Post.
● The previously developed RIG-360 module was tested. It provides target updates for munitions in flight and can be used for more than just HIMARS munitions.
● "This test is a big step forward in advancing the concept of joint fire operations for the US Army," said Lockheed Martin spokesman Scott Arnold.
11:59 PM: Bulgaria introduced a tax on the transit of Russian gas to the EU. This is reported by Bloomberg.
● A new bill published on Friday, which takes effect immediately, imposes a fee of 20 Bulgarian leva ($10.76) per megawatt-hour of gas of Russian origin.
● This is about 20% of the price of reference European gas sold in the regional center of Amsterdam.
NATIONAL
Saturday, October 14
1:37 AM: Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Sumy regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
5:01 AM: Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
7:22 AM: Russians suffer significant losses on the battlefield, - General Staff of the Armed Forces.
● So, only in the last 3 days during the assaults in the Krasnohorivka area of the Donetsk region, the losses of Russians amounted to more than 100 irretrievable, most of them as a result of the lack of evacuation from the battlefield, as well as about 200 wounded.
10:30 AM: Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad region - air alert! - OVA
● The activity of Russian tactical aviation in the eastern and southeastern directions! The threat of the use of aviation weapons for front-line areas. Missile danger, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Friday, October 13
12:36 PM: Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
12:42 PM: Currently, there are 6 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 1 Kalibr cruise missile carrier — the Ukrainian Navy.
● There is 1 Russian ship on combat duty in the Sea of Azov; 4 Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea.
1:05 PM: Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny held the first telephone conversation with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown.
● "First of all, I familiarized my colleague in detail with the current state of affairs, the operational situation at the front, our steps in defense and offensive," writes Zaluzhny.
● During the conversation, the urgent needs of the Armed Forces were also discussed - these are means of air defense, artillery systems and shells.
2:47 PM: Poltava and Chernihiv regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
3:42 PM: VAKS has extended the preventive measure against the ex-head of the Supreme Court Vsevolod Knyazev for another two months — he remains in custody.
● "At the same time, the court reduced the amount of bail for the specified suspect from UAH 45 million to UAH 35 million," the SAP press service reports.
3:45 PM: Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions - the threat of using ballistic weapons, - Ukrainian Air Command.
4:16 PM: Kharkiv, Sumy and Donetsk regions - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
5:25 PM: The National Police blocked the smuggling channel for the supply of hard drugs to the EU countries — they seized 186 kg of heroin.
● "The extras are two citizens of Romania who ensured the transit of the drug through Ukraine to the EU countries in containers with dates," the National Police said in a statement.
● The total value of the seized batch of heroin is more than 11 million US dollars.
6:29 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyi and the Prime Minister of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, spoke with media representatives.
● "We discussed our further possible steps regarding the F-16 coalition and other aspects of defense cooperation. We also discussed strengthening sanctions against the Russian Federation," Zelenskyy said.
8:45 PM: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russian troops cynically launched a rocket attack on the orphanage of creativity in the center of the city of Pokrovsk, Donetsk region.
● More than 20 civilians were injured as a result of the targeted attack, and two administrative buildings were partially destroyed.
● During the day, 68 combat clashes took place.
● The enemy launched 2 rocket and 39 air strikes, fired 24 rocket salvo fire strikes at the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● The Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to conduct an offensive operation in the Melitopol direction, offensive (assault) actions in the Bakhmut direction, inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying forces, and exhaust the enemy along the entire front line.
● During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces made 12 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment and the bridge of the enemy.
● Our defenders also destroyed the Russian Su-25 fighter jet and the Orlan-10 operational-tactical UAV.
● Units of the missile forces inflicted damage on the control point, the area of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, the ammunition warehouse and the enemy's EW station.
9:54 PM: The SBI has completed its investigation into six "Berkuts" who were direct executors of the order of the top management regarding the mass shootings of Maidan activists - the press service of the Bureau.
● According to the investigation, due to their actions, as well as the actions of other Berkut militiamen, on February 20, 2014, 48 participants in the protest actions were killed, and another 90 received gunshot wounds.
● The accused are currently hiding in the Russian Federation and have received Russian citizenship.
10:26 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyy together with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte talked with the cadets of the Military Academy and the Institute of the Naval Forces of the National University "Odesa Maritime Academy".
10:41 PM: In the StratCom of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a video was shown of how aerial reconnaissance units of the 110th separate brigade of the Territorial Defense Forces inflict fire damage on enemy equipment.
10:56 PM: Next week in the USA, Ukrainian pilots will begin training for F-16 fighter jets in the state of Texas.
● Pilots will first learn the basics of flying the F-16 in the classroom and on simulators before moving on to flying the aircraft.
● This is reported by Politico with reference to sources.
11:16 PM: During an extremely complex operation in a front-line hospital, Ukrainian medics removed a mine shaft from the body of a wounded soldier.
● At the same time, it was possible to save his leg. Now the Ukrainian soldier's condition is stable. Specialists of the Medical Forces are preparing him for further evacuation.
MORDOR - ruZZia
Saturday, October 14
7:50 AM Social Networks: Explosions rang out in Sochi, Russia.
11:28 AM: Traffic on the Crimean Bridge is temporarily blocked, - rosZMI.
Friday, October 13
1:43 PM: Russia is ready for the process of a large wave of mobilization, but they cannot announce it at the moment.
● This was stated by the representative of Military Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitskyi.
● "All the lists have been revised, everything has been transferred to electronic accounting, the requirements of the legislation and the norms of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation regarding punishment for evading military service and desertion have been significantly strengthened," Skibitskyi said.
● At the same time, according to him, mass mobilization is a very powerful blow to the Russian economy, because the most able-bodied population is called up, which must work, make a product and ensure industrial activity.
2:27 PM: Ukrainian Special Forces cut off the Russian army from the supply of ammunition and fuel in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
● Thanks to the sabotage actions of soldiers of the unit of the SSO Resistance Movement, at 07:30 in the morning, a railway track was blown up in the temporarily occupied Melitopol.
● "As a result of the explosion, the railway track and the train that was delivering ammunition and fuel for the Russian army were damaged," - writes the press service of the SSO.
2:52 PM: Another autumn draft has now started in the Russian Federation, said Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Military Intelligence of the Russian Federation.
● "The goal that the Russian Federation has now set for itself is to transfer all those mobilized to the ranks of the Russian armed forces to a contract basis. This process takes place using various methods, including threats," said Skibitsky.
● However, intelligence sources note that during this time the number of the Russian Federation did not increase significantly.
REGIONS
KYIV
Friday, October 13
3:11 PM: Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko presented awards to the families of fallen defenders of Ukraine.
● "More than 100,000 men and women from Kyiv are defending Ukraine today at the front. Unfortunately, there are fallen heroes," Klitschko writes.
● According to the head of the capital, Kyiv pays material aid and provides professional psychological support to the families of fallen soldiers. The city also offers benefits for free meals for children in schools and kindergartens.
SUMY
Saturday, October 14
11:31 AM Sumy RMA: At night, the Russians shelled the Krasnopil community, - sBA.
● 10 mortar explosions were recorded.
Friday, October 13
1:28 PM: Sumy region - missile danger, - Ukrainian Air Command.
KHARKIV
Friday, October 13
11:04 PM: Kharkiv region - threat of ballistic weapons use, - Ukrainian Air Command.
9:05 AM Kharkiv RMA: Today at 7 a.m. the Russians shelled the village of Kupyansk-Vuzlovy of the Kupyan district, a 5-story residential building was damaged, and a fire broke out. No casualties.
● Last day, the Russians shelled the settlements of Chuguyiv, Kupyan and Izyum districts.
DONETSK
Saturday, October 14
12:42 AM: Since the beginning of the week, 34 people have suffered from the consequences of Russian aggression in the Donetsk region.
● This was announced by the acting head of Donetsk OVA Ihor Moroz.
● "Already this week, we have 34 victims: 26 wounded, including 2 children, 8 people died, including 1 child," the report says.
11:12 AM: Russians shelled the village of Bogatyr in Donetsk region. An 11-year-old boy died, his mother and 6-year-old brother were injured, - National Police.
● Russia attacked the village with the Smerch anti-aircraft missile system. 9 arrivals in the residential sector were recorded. 20 private houses, a church, a school, civilian cars and the power grid were damaged.
Friday, October 13
1:09 PM: A loud explosion rang out in the temporarily occupied Mariupol, the mayor's advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported.
11:34 PM Social Networks: A fire broke out in the temporarily occupied part of Donetsk region.
● First, the gas pipeline is on fire.
ZAPORIZHIA
Saturday, October 14
10:25 AM Zaporizhia RMA: In the past day, Russian military personnel struck 150 targets in 22 settlements.
● A 62-year-old woman was injured as a result of shelling in Gulyaipol.
● 21 reports were received about the destruction of residential buildings and infrastructure facilities.
DNIPRO
Friday, October 13
4:04 PM: In Nikopol, two rescuers were wounded during repeated shelling, — the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.
● At noon, the Nikopol rescuers received a report about a fire caused by shelling. While extinguishing the minibus at a temporary stop, the Russians struck again.
● The rescuers were hospitalized with shrapnel wounds.
6:48 PM Dnipro RMA: Russians shelled Nikopol district. Five artillery barrages and two drone attacks.
● The rescuers who were injured in the district center are now in the hospital. These men are 48 and 24 years old. Doctors assess the condition of the victims as moderate. In the city, a utility company, 9 private houses and 3 farm buildings were damaged.
● An agricultural company was destroyed in one of the villages of the Marganets community. In another, more than half a thousand bales of hay and straw caught fire. Firefighters extinguished the fire.
KHERSON
Saturday, October 14
6:32 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
9:34 AM Kherson RMA: Russians once again covered Berislav with fire. A person died.
● Around 6 a.m., the Russian army struck the city. They hit a private house. A 60-year-old woman was found under the rubble. Her injuries were incompatible with life.
Friday, October 13
12:22 PM Kherson RMA: the Russian army shot a kamikaze drone at a car with civilians in Beryslav — a woman died on the spot, and her 36-year-old husband was hospitalized in an extremely serious condition
● "As a result of the grenade being dropped from the drone, two people were injured. This is a 79-year-old woman who was hospitalized in a moderate condition. The other man suffered aquabarotrauma, injuries to his limbs, head, and back," added Prokudin.
3:04 PM Kherson Municipal Military Administration: Russians shell the Dnipro district of Kherson.
● "There are already several flights. Go to safe places! Do not stay in open space and near windows," Mrochko writes.
4:44 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
ODESA
Friday, October 13
5:11 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyi in Odesa held a meeting with the military leadership, heads of law enforcement agencies and regional authorities regarding the situation in the city and region.
● "The focus is on preparing for winter, protecting our people, infrastructure and energy from Russian terror.
● "We discussed in detail preparation for the heating season, protection of energy facilities, the consequences of Russian shelling of port infrastructure, and the needs of the air defense system," the president wrote.
7:00 PM: During a working trip to Odesa, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi together with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte visited the sea terminal of the Odesa Sea Trade Port and inspected the destruction caused by Russian shelling.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio