Bob Homans November 18

20221118

Ukraine – 11/18 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
November 18, 2022

As you will see, this is a long one and for noble reasons.   Anyway, tomorrow is Saturday.

Frederick Kagan

Yesterday, I was invited to attend a luncheon, where Frederick Kagan spoke about the War in Ukraine.   Frederick Kagan is resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, adviser and contributor to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), and former professor of military history at West Point.

Since Chatham House Rules weren’t invoked, my highlights included:

·       His Prediction was wrong – Kagan admitted that he and his colleagues didn’t believe Russia would invade Ukraine, for the reasons that became evident since the invasion, namely Ukraine’s willingness to fight and the poor preparedness of the Russian Armed Forces.

·       Ukraine can win – Continued supply of Western weapons, most urgently anti-aircraft systems and ammunition, will continue to play a significant role.  (Kagan was far more forceful on this subject than even I am, which is saying something).

·       Crimea – Kagan believes that Ukraine will likely try to liberate Crimea, although he seemed ambivalent as to whether this is a good idea or if Ukraine would be successful.   He also said that the West should want to see Crimea liberated by Ukraine, to deny the use of Sevastopol to the Black Sea Fleet.   He believes that the ethnic make-up of Crimea is irrelevant, that Crimea was part of Ukraine and was illegally invaded and occupied by Russia.  If one applies the same standard to Canada, everyone would agree that Quebec should be independent.  (At the time of the war, Crimea was 58% ethnic Russian made up mostly of Russian and Soviet Navy veterans and their families, 30% Ukrainian, and 12% Crimean Tatar).

·       Russian Armed Forces have been exposed – Kagan said that the likely reason for the low quality of the Russian Armed Forces is graft and corruption by senior Russian civil and military officials. (Under former President Yanukovich, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered the same fate, the sale of 4 MiG 29s to Chad in February 2014, just before Yanukovich fled Kyiv, being one example).   Kagan said that Russia’s purchase of artillery shells from N. Korea, is a further example of tawdry condition of the Russian Army.

·       Winter – Kagan said that Ukraine will keep fighting through the Winter (although the tempo seems to have slowed in recent days, with the lower level of Russian casualties being an indication), and he believes that Ukraine is much better prepared for winter war than are the Russians, especially the new conscripts.

·       Putin’s health – In response to a question, Kagan said that he and his colleagues believe that Putin almost certainly has Parkinson’s Disease, as evidence by his facial expression and his gripping of furniture during meetings.   He said that they’re not sure about cancer, because cancer often doesn’t manifest itself in one’s physical appearance.

·       Comments by General Milley – In response to a question, Kagan said that he not only disagrees with Gen. Milley’s assessment that Ukraine should negotiate, but he said that it’s not within Gen. Milley’s authority to even make such a comment.

·       EU Assistance – Kagan said that the EU and Great Britain are providing more assistance to Ukraine than they’re getting credit for, including but not limited to their willingness to take the risk of limited gas supplies during the winter.

·       Zelenskyy – Kagan said that Putin left the Russian population unprepared for war; Zelenskyy left Ukraine’s population unprepared for war.   At the start of the war, Kagan said that Zelenskyy’s poll numbers were very low, and it remains to be seen what the fallout will be after the war is over.

·       Russia’s mistreatment of Russian speaking Ukrainians – Virtually all Ukraine’s territory occupied by Russia since 2014 consists of areas populated by people whose primary language is Russian.   Russian atrocities against residents of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, primarily Russian speakers, gives a lie to Russia’s account that Russian speakers would welcome Russian troops with open arms.

Almost all of Kagan’s formal remarks was “Russia, Russia, Russia,” and “Putin, Putin, Putin,” including incompetence of the Russian Army, poor tactics and leadership, Putin’s health etc.  I think Kagan’s focus on Russia, in his prepared remarks, was because he believed that this was the interest of his audience, but not so much because of what Kagan believes is important.   I think this is a problem for Ukraine.  The focus of the American media and most of the pundits always seems to be why Russia is losing, rather than the reasons why Ukraine is winning.  However, based on recent articles in the NY Times, and other places, this narrative seems to be changing.  

I believe that Ukraine is winning primarily because of how Ukraine is fighting this war, with the help of the West and, based to Kagan’s response to my question he agrees.   It was left up to me to change the focus of the conversation from Russia to Ukraine.

I asked Kagan the question, roughly as follows, “You’ve spoken a lot about Russia, and everything Russia is doing wrong, what is Ukraine doing right?”   As a postscript, I mentioned that in Feb. 2014, at the time of Russia’s invasion and occupation of Crimea, Ukraine had only 6,000 combat ready soldiers.   In 8 short years, Ukraine’s Army has been transformed.   

Kagan smiled when I asked the question, and he gave me a “thumbs up.”  Kagan’s responses to my question included:

·       Ukraine’s willingness to fight – At the time of the initial invasion Ukrainians were fighting back not just with N-Laws and Javelins, but with pistols and shotguns, and this was the case everywhere Russian started incursions, around Chernihiv in the North, Kharkiv in the northeast, and Kherson in the south.

·       Initiative – Kagan said that whereas lower-level Russian commanders would call their superiors and wait for instructions, that Ukrainians would call their friends, both in Ukraine and overseas, and they relied on their own initiative and in small groups, without waiting for instructions from above.  (This sowed confusion in the Russian Army, especially during the fighting round Kyiv).

·       Women – Ukrainian women have played major roles, in combat and in supporting roles such as training drone operators, producing camouflage dress, etc.   Kagan said that Russian women, like Ukrainian women, are very resourceful, but Russia has made no effort to incorporate women into their war effort.

·       Civil Society – Kagan said that civil society groups throughout the country have played significant roles in civil defense as well as providing financial and material support.  (Civil society has been a major subject, throughout the nearly 9 years that I have been sending emails about Ukraine, starting on Nov. 30, 2013).

·       Decentralization & Democracy – Kagan said that as a democratic country, Ukraine is very decentralized, making Ukraine harder for Russia to invade.   (A couple of years ago, Ukraine instituted a decentralization plan, sending federal revenues back to local governments).  Kagan said that if the U.S. was ever invaded that he’s convinced that Americans would respond in the same way Ukraine has responded to the Russian invasion.  

·       Americans have much in common with Ukrainians.   Kagan said that this is the major reason why Ukraine continues to enjoy substantial support from Americans.  Kagan went on to say that he has great respect for the American people, as he has for the Ukrainian people. (Based on what Kagan said, which I completely agree, a few American elected officials opposed to continued aid to Ukraine, led by Pramilla Jayapal and Marjorie Taylor Green, have little or no respect to the people whom they claim to represent).

A friend of mine invited me to attend as his guest.   I am grateful to him for his considerations.

From Another Ukrainian Friend

NOTE: The person writing this account of what it’s like in Ukraine today, in the midst of blackouts and gas cut-offs.  He is a good friend of mine.   During the initial Russian invasion his house, approximately 40KM west of Kyiv near the Zhytomyr Highway, was partly looted by Russian invaders, and all the windows broken.   He served as an officer with the Soviet Army in Angola, in an anti-aircraft group so, when it comes to assessing Ukraine’s current anti-aircraft capabilities, he knows something about the subject.

His account begins below -

Those who follow events in Ukraine have probably heard what had happened here over the last six weeks. Having been repeatedly defeated on a battlefield, the Russians decided to destroy Ukraine’s energy system and natural gas infrastructure. According to our PM Smygal, as of today they have succeeded in ruining or damaging around 50% of electricity generation and distribution capacity. Their aim is clear – to freeze and starve the Ukrainians into submission.

I do not believe they will succeed. As an amateur WWII historian, I know that terror bombing may indeed cause untold hardships to the civilian population, but it is unlikely to break a nation’s resolve, cause a regime change or lead to surrender. The Ukrainians will survive this winter and will win this war, irrespectively of what new atrocities will be committed by the Russians. We all know that we are fighting for our existence and we just cannot afford to be defeated. When asked a question “What is better – to be occupied by the Russians or not to have gas, water and electricity?” the vast majority of Ukrainians would answer without hesitation: “Anything is better than to be under their foot again.” 

However, if Russian current missile campaign continues unabated it may lead to the deaths of thousands (and potentially hundreds of thousands) of Ukrainian civilians. Or, in other words, result in yet another genocide of Ukrainian people.

It is now a race against time. Russians have already destroyed most of our coal and gas power stations. Now our country is running on its remaining nuclear and hydro power. Our enemy has so far refrained from directly attacking those because such actions may lead to mass casualty events and finally push NATO towards direct conflict with Russia.

However, they have a free hand in destroying power transit lines, major electrical substations and giant transformers that connect nuclear stations in the Western regions of our country to its Central, Eastern and Sothern regions. It is probably only a matter of time when the accumulated damage will finally cause a total collapse of the Ukrainian power grid.

Believe me: life is already incredibly hard here. Once upon a time I had a two years’ experience of living without constant electricity and water supply. It happened in Angola during my military service in 1989-91. Because of that I was at least partially prepared to face pre-industrial age conditions. At the same time, whatever hardships I saw in Africa, there was never any danger of dying from cold. After six weeks of blackouts and interruptions of water supply it has become painfully clear to me that the consequences of a prolonged period of below zero temperatures in combination with a long blackout may equal those of a full scale nuclear attack.

If this happens, millions of Ukrainians will have no other choice but to seek shelter in Europe. However, one cannot realistically expect that Europe would be able to accommodate everybody. Moreover, in the total chaos that would inevitably follow thousands of evacuees will never reach the border and will find their end on the road.

I have already lived through a mass evacuation during the first days of the war. I am still haunted by this experience. Driving for 14 hours straight with high blood pressure (I could not take pills as was afraid to faint while behind the wheel) while taking care of an 81 years invalid mother and a diabetic grandma-in-law was in itself a life-long trauma. Next time it would be much harder. Those millions who will manage to cross the border will cause a new refugee crisis of biblical proportions in Europe and beyond. Ukrainians fleeing from cold and darkness will not be able to return till at Least April as millions of homes will become unlivable due to the burst water and sanitation pipes.

Under such conditions hunger, as a hundred years ago, will become a weapon again. It will happen not because of the lack of food (Ukraine still has vast amounts of grain), but due to the collapse of our food processing industries, food retail and logistics. They are already on the brink due to the constant power and water shortages and lack of back-up generators. The same can be said about our health care. Yesterday a team of medics in one of the Kyiv hospitals had to perform an open-heart surgery using only flashlights. Imagine that. 

It is clear to me that the existing Air Defense capabilities of Ukraine cannot prevent such a tragic scenario. Our AD troops are probably the best in the world, but, at the end of the day, they cannot beat XXI century technologies with the 40 years old ones. I know that at least some of the so much needed AD systems are on their way and will improve the situation to some extent. Maybe I am mistaken, and our allies have already provided an even bigger assistance than I am aware of. In any case, the best the newly acquired AD weapons will be able to do would be to slow the process of strangulation of our country by several weeks. It is almost a mathematical certainty that at some point during this winter the Ukrainians will start to freeze to death in their thousands. Hunger and lack of medical care will surely make this desperate situation even more terrible.

However, this is a totally preventable outcome. To save Ukrainian civilians it would be enough to protect not all, but a significant portion of Ukrainian territory – a wide band of “inner” regions, including Odessa and Vinnizya in the South and Volyn in the North, stretching all the way to Kyiv, Poltava and Dnipro. Once a respective decision is made, such a deployment of NATO Air Defense units (probably US and UK at the beginning) could be completed within a fortnight. 

An AD “umbrella” provided by NATO could protect our nuclear and hydro power stations, major electricity transit lines and create conditions for repairs of already damaged coal and gas power stations. Such an “umbrella” could include even the most advanced systems (like US “Patriot”) as there will be no danger of them falling into Russian hands or of them shooting down Russian pilots. They would be dealing only with Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. The Russian warplanes have been avoiding our inner airspace for at least half a year anyway due to unfordable losses.

I do not believe such an endeavor would significantly increase the risk of a nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia. Moreover, Western AD systems could be manned by crews of volunteers -- as in case of American pilots who defended China from the Japanese in the last century. There are hundreds of NATO ex-servicemen already taking part in this war and it does not seem to have led to any escalation. Putin, of course, huffed and puffed, and made new threats with each new decision to supply modern weapons to Ukraine, but in the end preferred to do nothing. I do not believe in a nuclear escalation (the only thing that really scares most of Western political and military leaders) anyway. Putin knows the consequences – as, I am sure, do the Russian military. He would have issued an order to use nukes long time ago -- if he were sure he could get away with it.

The Ukrainians, who would be working shoulder by shoulder with NATO (or former NATO) servicemen, will learn how to man those systems within weeks. They will be already familiar with some of them anyway. Besides saving millions of Ukrainians and preventing a genocide, the NATO military personnel will gain invaluable combat experience and will get a tremendous morale boost. I suspect that thousands of NATO soldiers and officers are itching to get into a fight with the brutal hordes from the East. An operation “Save Ukraine” could provide such an opportunity and finally make NATO military proud after their regrettable fiasco in Afghanistan.

A related issue is a shameful refusal to supply the Ukrainian military with heavy weaponry – like “Abrams” main battle tanks, F-16 fighters, ATCAMS rockets and such. I honestly do not understanding this never-ending hesitation on side of our American allies. Really, what are you waiting for? We have already proved that our soldiers can put your weapons to good use. It is cheaper and safer to defeat Russians with our hands than to engage them on your own. Unlike the misadventure in Afghanistan, it promises to be a good investment. Even if you spend 200-300 billion USD supporting Ukraine and it leads to the total defeat of Russia (and an almost guaranteed regime change there), it would be good value for money. A defeated (and preferably partitioned) Russia will mean lower energy and food prices and a faster end of global recession. The US will be able to spend less on its military build-up in Europe and concentrate on the growing threats from China, North Korea and Iran. Ironically, Russia’s defeat will benefit the majority of Russians. At the same time, Ukraine’s destruction as a nation would weaken the West, increase the chances of a direct war with Russia, will give Putin control over one third of global food supplies and will provide them with an additional instrument of geopolitical blackmail.   

I am a decent analyst. I learned from the best when serving in the Soviet Army and then later – when studying in the US and working at Baring Vostok and the Carlyle Group. The fact that I was born and raised Russian plus my decade long WWII history quest have equipped me with a fairly good understanding of how the Russian mind works. I assess the risks and benefits in fundamentally the same way that the American analysts do. So, what am I missing here?

During my career in Private Equity, I had an opportunity to work with some truly remarkable retired and future US politicians, diplomats and servicemen – like President George W. Bush Senior, Ambassador Arthur Hartmann, General Tomas Stafford and a recently elected Governor of Virginia Glenn Youngkin. None of them struck me as timid, cynical, or indifferent. They all had a very distinctive “moral compass”. I am sure the same compass is guiding the vast majority of American decision-makers. America by right considers itself a global leader. But to maintain this status, you’ve got to lead.

News From the Battlefield

My collaborator reported, “Yesterday was the first time in three weeks that less than 500 invaders were liquidated.”   It seems like the tempo on the battlefield slowing down, at least temporarily.   Judging from the Latest Denys and “Reporting From Ukraine,” they appear to confirm this assessment.   I don’t believe this situation will last – Ukraine will keep moving.

11/18 Sitrep

Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon November 17 to 12:00 noon November 18, 2022

Abbreviations:

RMA = Regional Military Administration             SBU = Security Service of Ukraine

INTERNATIONAL

November 18

11:53: Slovakia handed over to Ukraine the seventh self-propelled artillery unit Zuzana 2

·                 This was announced by the Minister of Defense of Slovakia Jaroslav Nagy in a microblog Twitter.

11:47: Andrzej Duda's office says the missile incident did not cause tensions between Poland and Ukraine

·                 It was important for Warsaw to find out whether there was an attack on the country.

·                 Such a statement was made by the head of the Bureau of International Policy in the Office of the President of Poland Jakub Kumo.

11:41: "This war is also your problem," French President

·                 Emmanuel Macron on Friday called on countries in the Asia-Pacific region to join the "growing consensus" against the war in Ukraine, BFM TV reported.

11:32: The IAEA demands that Russia leave the Zaporizhzhia NPP, as reported in the IAEA resolution.

·                 "The Board of Governors does not recognize Russia's attempts to seize the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia NPP and calls on Russia to immediately abandon its unfounded claims to the ownership of this station."

09:40: Executive Vice-President of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis has arrived in Kyiv.

·       "I arrived in Kyiv to discuss the EU's support for Ukraine, to focus on extraordinary financial support and our plans for 2023. I will also discuss with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Denys Shmyhal concrete steps for closer economic integration between the EU and Ukraine," Dombrovskis wrote on Twitter.

09:32 EU Foreign Ministry: Moscow does not demonstrate readiness for peace

·       "Peace in Ukraine is impossible until Russia withdraws its troops, but Moscow shows no signs of readiness for this. It is Russia who must make peace possible, the aggressor must leave if he wants a lasting peace," Borrell said.

09:07 Reuters: The IAEA again said it had found no traces of the manufacture of a "dirty bomb" in Ukraine.

·       This is stated in the next resolution of the organization.

·       The IAEA also called on Russia to stop hostilities around all Ukrainian nuclear power plants.

09:57 Defense Express: Russian missile that attacked Ukraine had a nuclear warhead imitator

·       In one of the missiles, which was shot down over Kyiv on November 17, there was an imitator of a nuclear warhead. This may indicate that Russia's stockpile of cruise missiles is being exhausted to a critical point.

10:16 a.m. Adnkronos and Il Messagero: Unknown persons robbed the villa of Russian businessman Oleg Tinkov in the Italian city of Forte dei Marmi.

·       Watches and jewelry for several hundred thousand euros disappeared from the house.

08:55 Agence France-Presse: Australia is demanding that Putin extradite convicts in a Boeing 777 crash case and not conceal the killers, Australian Prime Minister Penny Wong.

08:48 CNN: North Korea launches an intercontinental ballistic missile in an easterly direction

·       According to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kisida, she fell into the sea west of the island of Hokkaido. He called North Korea's actions unacceptable.

00:45 Reuters: The Finnish government plans to spend $143 million to build a fence along the border with Russia.

·       The country's border service department said it plans to build a 130-260 km long fence. It will cover border crossing points and adjacent areas in southeastern Finland.

00:30 The Guardian: Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lypavsky opposed imposing conditions on Ukraine for peace with Russia, which launched a full-scale armed aggression against it.

·       He stated that the West should help protect Ukraine in the long run, because their struggle against Russia "also protects us (Europe - ed.)".

November 17

20:54: Street artist Banksy posted a video of his work on the walls of houses in Ukraine.

21:05 European Commissioner for Crisis Management: The damage caused to Ukraine's energy system is approaching critical.

·       "The EU is working continuously to continue to support its electricity supplies," Lenarcic said.

20:35 CNN: The U.S. has run out of stockpiles of some of the weapons and ammunition they promised to supply to Ukraine.

·       We are talking about 155-mm artillery ammunition and portable anti-aircraft missile systems Stinger. CNN sources also believe that there may be difficulties with the production of Javelin portable anti-tank missile systems, as well as HARM and GMLRS missiles.

23:50 Welt: Vessels with sensors turned off, which were discovered near Nord Streams shortly before the leaks, could conduct reconnaissance.

·       According to Otto Tabuns, director of the Baltic Security Fund, they probably made sure that there were no civilian or warships from other countries nearby. And the explosion on the pipeline could be carried out using a submarine.

23:10 Reuters: The IAEA Council has adopted the third resolution since the start of a full-scale war in Ukraine, in which it called on Russia to cease all actions at Ukrainian nuclear facilities.

·       The resolution states that the IAEA called on Russia to immediately withdraw its forces from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine.

23:00 Polsat News: Poland expects to intensify Russian propaganda after the missile incident.

·       "The Kremlin very quickly incorporates such incidents into its ongoing information war," said Poland's deputy minister-coordinator.

22:06: The European Parliament has agreed on a resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism, - said MEP Andrius Kubilius.

·       Voting is scheduled for next week.

21:56 BBC: Australian billionaire Andrew Forrest has set up an investment fund to support Ukraine and allocated $500 million.

22:16: The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it does not recognize the verdict of the Hague District Court in the case of the downing of the MH17 airliner in 2014.

·       "It was based on a political order." The court allegedly "was under unprecedented pressure from Dutch politicians, representatives of the prosecutor's office and the media", so it "neglected the principles of impartial justice," the Russian Foreign Ministry website says.

22:40 Social Networks: Explosions in temporarily occupied Donetsk are reported.

23:40 press service of Chernivtsi city council: In Chernivtsi, a monument to Pushkin, which stood on Soborna Square in the city center, was dismantled.

20:04 Reuters: The EU is preparing to unlock Hungary up to 15 billion euros frozen due to problems with democracy.

·       The European Commission believes that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made concessions after their decision to freeze funds, and this is the basis for the decision to allocate funding.

19:58 British Prime Minister: The Russian Federation cannot be excluded from the G20 countries, despite calls from some Western politicians.

·       "The G20 is a broader group of countries that works on the principle of consensus. Thus, it is impossible to exclude Russia from this group in the same way as from the G7," the Prime Minister said.

19:39: The European Union transfers 1,800 tons of emergency aid to de-occupied Kherson , says the European Commission.

·       Emergency assistance involves vital goods, including food, water, hygiene items, etc. It will be sent to Kherson this month. The EU will transfer tents, energy supply equipment, first aid packages, protective clothing, fire-fighting equipment, water carriers, buses and other means.

19:29: The Swedish Parliament has approved a record $287 million in military assistance to Ukraine, the Swedish government said.

·       The assistance package includes air defense systems, ammunition, armored vehicles, and personal equipment, including winter clothing and body protection kits, gun guidance equipment, tents and camouflage nets.

17:53: Representatives of Ukraine can familiarize themselves with the investigation into the fall of a missile in Poland, but not participate in it, says Polish President Andrzej Duda.

·       Ukrainian experts have already arrived at the scene of the rocket crash in Poland, says Andrzej Duda's office.

5:42 Hungarian Foreign Minister: Hungary has announced its partnership with Iran.

·       Szijjártó said that Budapest plans to "normalize the situation" in the Middle East and therefore plans economic cooperation with the sanctioned Iran.

·       He also spoke about the visit of the Iranian Minister of Economy to Budapest for a meeting of the joint economic committee and stated the need to return Iran to the system of international cooperation.

5:19 BBC: Protesters in Iran have been sentenced to death.

·       According to the publication, the Iranian authorities hope that the demonstrative executions of several protesters will reduce their associates' desire to go into conflict with the state machine. So far, five sentences to capital punishment are known.

4:57: Finland will provide €55 million in military assistance to Ukraine.

·       The Finnish Ministry of Defense noted that for operational reasons and in order to ensure the safe delivery of assistance, the maintenance, delivery method or schedule of assistance will not be notified in more detail.

·       But they clarified that this is the 10th batch of military equipment from Finland with the largest volume to date.

15:53: A court in the Netherlands found that Russia was responsible for separatist actions in Donbas and qualified it as an international armed conflict.

·       The court also considered the inconclusive testimony of the Russian state concern Almaz-Antey, whose experts claimed that Boeing shot down the Ukrainians.

·       This was announced by Dutch legal expert Marieke de Hoon on Twitter.

·       The court found Igor Girkin, Sergei Dubinsky, Oleg Pulatov and Leonid Kharchenko involved in the crash with the Malaysian Boeing.

·       A court in The Hague said that the Buk air defense system, from which MH17 was shot down, was brought from Russia to Ukraine and then taken back.

·       At the same time, the court noted that the actions of the crew of the air defense system cannot be established, it is also not clear who gave the command to launch the missile.

·       The court stated that Doubinsky was engaged in organizing the transportation of air defense systems, Pulatov — intelligence and creating a safe corridor for transportation, Girkin — installing air defense systems, as well as supplying weapons and negotiating with responsible persons in Moscow.

·       According to the court decision, the defendants were not the only group, as the prosecutor's office claimed, but were related to the launch of the rocket.

·       Girkin, Kharchenko and Doubinsky were found guilty of crashing a civilian plane and killing 298 people.

·       "It's just that people want the least unpleasant topics to sound to him at the meeting with the president and there is no talk of fakes and discredit."

·       Pulatov has been declared innocent in the Boeing crash case and the court rejects the prosecutor's request to put him in jail.

·       A court in The Hague ruled that those found guilty of the crash of the Malaysian Boeing Girkin, Doubinsky and Kharchenko should pay at least 16 million euros to the relatives of the victims as compensation.

·       Girkin (Strelkov), Kharchenko and Dubinsky received a life sentence by a court decision in The Hague on a downed Malaysian Boeing.

·       Defendant Oleg Pulatov was found innocent.

·       Girkin, Kharchenko and Doubinsky, as well as their lawyers, were not present at the trial. They were tried in absentia.

·       According to Russian media, Girkin is now forming a "volunteer unit" for the war in Ukraine.

15:49 Haaretz: Israel has financed the purchase of "strategic equipment" for Ukraine for millions of dollars. The country agreed to such a step under pressure from the United States of America.

·       The publication referred to the words of Western sources. They said senior Israeli politicians and security forces had agreed to expand aid for Ukraine. This time, they decided not to limit themselves to humanitarian aid after a request from the administration of US President Joe Biden.

(Shitstorm. This will be the name of one of the sea drones that Ukraine will have. Or something like that because this word is difficult to translate correctly into English, because of the wordplay. The name was chosen by the Lithuanians who raised money for it. Others are Kherson, Sevastopol, Mariupol, and Bakhmut. Ukraine plans to buy 100 drones in total. They will be produced in Ukraine.)

15:37: U.S. Secretary of State Blinken: The party ultimately responsible for the tragic incident in Poland — Russia

15:23: Ukrainian experts were allowed to enter the scene of the rocket crash in Poland, according to the office of the Polish president.

15:03: The Hague court ruled that the MH17 aircraft was shot down by the Buk air defense system, launched from the village of Pervomaiske.

·       As you know, at that time Pervomaiske was controlled by militants of the so-called "DPR".

14:23: Ukraine will receive a million euros from Germany to restore energy infrastructure

·       This was reported by the Embassy of Germany in Ukraine:

·       "In response to Russia's numerous attacks on Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure, the German Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs is allocating EUR 1 million as emergency assistance to be contributed to the Energy Support Fund of Ukraine."

14:04 Prime Minister of Canada: The responsibility for the missile explosion in Poland lies with Russia.

13:54: On November 17, the Netherlands will announce the verdict on the death of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was shot down in the sky over Donbas by a Russian missile in July 2014.

13:19: Ukrainian experts will participate in the investigation into the circumstances of the fall of missiles in Poland, - Volodymyr Zelenskyy

·       "We have received confirmation that our specialists will participate in the investigation. Until the investigation is completed, we cannot say exactly which missiles or their parts fell on the territory of Poland. But we have seen pictures of the diameter of the crater. These could not only be remnants of anti-missile systems," he said.

13:13 The Hill - FBI Director: To date, China has stolen more data from the U.S. than other countries combined.

·       "China's big hacking program is the largest in the world, and they have stolen more personal and business data of Americans than the rest of the countries combined," he said at a hearing on international threats to the House Homeland Security Committee.

12:23: Володимир Зеленський виступив на Bloomberg New Economy Forum

·       "Peace in Ukraine is a global need. I emphasize: not a temporary lull, not a dummy of peace, which Russia tempts to simply prepare a new stage of aggression, but real peace. I know it can be achieved.

·       But to do this, we must protect global unity – and continue to support our struggle for freedom. We must protect global honesty – and increase pressure on Russia for terror. And we must protect global rationality – and now cooperate with us for the sake of future development."

NATIONAL

November 18

08:33 DTEK: Today, Ukraine plans to use only stabilization power outages.

·       It is assumed that the maximum power outage time will be 4 hours.

07:23 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

·       Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces repulsed Russian attacks in the areas of the settlements of Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk region and Bilohorivka, Verkhnekamenskoye, Dispute, Opytne, Pervomaiske, Vodiane and Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region.

·       Over the past day, the Russian army has inflicted 5 air and 27 missile strikes, carried out more than 50 attacks from the MLRS.

·       In the Belgorod region, active recruitment of workers of industrial enterprises to the Wagner PMC has begun

·       Thus, by agreement with the management of the Oskolsky Electrometallurgical Plant, workers of draft age will be attracted to military fees based on the Wagner PMC for a period of 30 days with the preservation of wages. The meeting is planned to be held in batches of 25% of workers of this category from the plant. Upon completion, participants will be asked to sign a contract with the PMC.

·       Due to significant losses of personnel and insufficient number of medical personnel in Russian units on the territory of Ukraine, in the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk region, by order of the so-called Ministry of Health, employees of medical institutions in the region were obliged to register for military registration for further additional staffing of vacant positions

·       Over the past day, the Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down 4 cruise missiles, 2 guided aircraft missiles and 5 Shahed-136 UAVs, - General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

·       During the current day, Ukrainian units of rocket troops and artillery hit 4 control points, 22 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 6 ammunition depots and 4 other important objects of the Russians.

07:16: One munitions warehouse was destroyed by the defenders of Ukraine near Luhansk and in the Starobeshevsky district of the Donetsk region. Another object was struck in Dzhankoy in Crimea

·       In the Zaporizhia region, the Russians lost the BC warehouse in the Vasilyevsky district, a warehouse in the Berdyansk district, a warehouse near Tokmak and another warehouse in the Melitopol district

·       In the Kherson region, three BC warehouses in the Kakhovka district, one near Kherson, as well as a BC warehouse and a base in the Skadovsk district were destroyed at once.

November 17

23:20 National Police of Ukraine: Almost a thousand civilian bodies were found in the de-occupied settlements of Ukraine.

·       During the de-occupation measures, law enforcement officers found the bodies of 991 civilians in the territories of Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Kherson regions liberated from Russians.

22:50: Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation today with UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

·       "I thanked him for his leadership in continuing the Black Sea grain initiative. I am also grateful for the support of Ukraine's humanitarian initiative – Grain From Ukraine. Ukraine will remain the guarantor of world food security," Zelenskyy said.

21:15 Minister of Defense of Ukraine: Only Ukraine's victory over Russia will allow to comply with the court's decision on MH17.

·       Reznikov claims that none of Russia's war criminals is going to serve their sentences for the downing of the plane in Donbas, so "only Ukraine's victory over Russia will allow the court decision to be implemented."

20:44: Volodymyr Zelenskyy appoints new SBU heads in three regions.

·       In Ternopil region – Vasyl Demianchuk, in Kirovohrad region – Serhiy Kononenko, in Zhytomyr region – Volodymyr Kompanichenko.

19:47 Ukrinform: Vadym Huttsait has been elected the new President of the National Olympic Committee of Ukraine.

18:39 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on November 17:

·       "During the day, the enemy inflicted 5 air and 25 missile strikes, carried out more than 10 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.

·       According to the updated information, this day the Defense Forces shot down 2 cruise missiles, 2 guided aircraft missiles and 5 Shahed-136 UAVs in different directions.

·       "According to available information, over the previous week, about 650 prisoners were recruited in correctional institutions of the Russian Federation. They were sent to the Rostov region for further preparation.

·       Medical assistance to this category of persons, in case of injury, will be provided exclusively in medical institutions in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine."

·       "The Russians have closed the entrances to the settlement of Rubizhne from the directions of Kreminna and Varvarivka. The movement of civilians is restricted in the city and filtering measures have been strengthened.

·       In Mariupol, the occupation authorities plan to deploy units of the Russian Guard, special purpose and rapid response, totaling up to 400 people."

·       "Russian occupation forces continue the forced evacuation of the population of Ukraine and the export of property from the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region. On the night of November 16, the occupiers forcibly removed the population from Novokyivka.

·       In addition, the central city hospital ceased to function in Nova Kakhovka, because all medical equipment and ambulances were stolen and taken away in the direction of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea."

·       "Units of the missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces of Ukraine for the current day hit 3 control points, 17 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 5 ammunition depots and 3 other important enemy objects."

17:08 Brigadier General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The Armed Forces of Ukraine control the territory near the temporarily occupied peninsula of Crimea.

·       "Our servicemen really went to the coast of the Dnieper River, which allows us to control the territory close to the temporarily occupied peninsula of Crimea," Gromov said.

15:32: British intelligence predicts that lower capacity in Ukraine's power system will affect public access to communications, heating, and water supply.

·       Thus, the agency commented on the massive missile attack on Ukraine on November 15.

·       London says that "the degradation of Ukraine's national infrastructure has become a key element of Russia's strategic approach to the campaign."

15:08 General Oleksiy Gromov: Ukraine has suffered almost 150 missile strikes in 6 days

·       111 of them – November 15.

·       In total, since November 11, 102 air targets have been shot down. He reported it.

·       Today, the air defense forces shot down 4 Kh-101 missiles, 5 Shahedov missiles and 2 guided aircraft missiles. In total, Russia has produced up to 18 cruise missiles of the Kh-101/Kh-555 type today.

·       The enemy's targets were an enterprise in the Dnipropetrovsk region and objects of the gas production industry of Ukraine.

14:33: "You have to be prepared that you have to sit for days without electricity. And the planned ones will not be shutdowns, but inclusions," says DTEK CEO Dmytro Sakharuk

·       Electricity in some regions will be given only for a few hours during the day.

13:59: Ukrainian military and civilians will be able to write letters home from captivity

·       Delivery of letters in both directions is organized by the Red Cross

·       The ministry stressed that the recipient country has the right to censor letters, so it is recommended to write politically neutral letters, not to assess military actions or the political situation, and not to transmit information that could harm the Ukrainian military.

12:42 Naftogaz: Today, Russia has carried out a massive shelling of gas production infrastructure in the east of the country. The fire that arose from the shelling has already been extinguished.

12:09 p.m.: Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat reveals details of today's Russian attack

·       "This is an attack by cruise missiles from Tu-95 strategic aviation aircraft. As a rule, already from Volgodonsk they attack, this is the Rostov region, cruise missiles such as the Kh-101, X-555. At the same time, there was a Shahed attack from the north of Ukraine, probably from the territory of Belarus, the Kursk region," Ignat said.

MORDOR (RUSSIA)

November 17

21:35: Belarus plans to produce shells for artillery and MLRS together with Iran, — Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.

·       "The Belarusian authorities are looking for the possibility of establishing in the country the production of components for projectiles of calibers 152-mm and 122-mm and the transition to a closed cycle of ammunition production," the message says.

19:21: The governor of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation reported that 2 transformers were damaged in the city and there were problems with the light.

16:52: Belarusian border guards showed what their border with Ukraine looks like now from the Volyn region.

16:42 Social Networks: Afghan Coca-Cola, as well as Sprite and Fanta from Iran, have appeared in Russia.

15:14: Video from the camera of a Russian soldier during his escape from Kherson appeared on the network.

·       Other Russians opened fire on the crew of his boat. In the video, one of the soldiers is heard shouting that he has been wounded.

14:52 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Sevastopol.

13:30 Juvenile Prevention Office: 103 children forcibly taken to Russia by Russians returned to Ukraine

·       "According to the national information bureau, 11129 children were illegally deported to the territory of the Russian Federation. Of these, 103 children were returned

13:09: Putin expels human rights activist Igor Kalyapin and journalist Nikolai Svanidze from the Human Rights Council under Russian President

·       By his decree, Putin included a number of new people in the Rada, including the "trooper" Alexander Kots.

·       The expulsion of a number of SPL members occurred a few days after an appeal to the head of the IC with a request to verify the video of the murder of former prisoner Yevhen Nuzhin.

12:47 Institute for the Study of War: Russia has openly campaigned for the forced removal and adoption of Ukrainian children. 

·       Analysts point out that propaganda videos are broadcast in  Russia  , where they provide data that more than 150 thousand minors were "evacuated" from the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

·       At the same time, Ukrainian officials previously estimated the number of forcibly exported children at 6-8 thousand, according to the ISW report.

KHARKIV

November 18

10:07 Kharkiv RMA: The Russians struck at the critical infrastructure of the region during the day. 8 people were injured - workers and police.

·       In addition, the Russians attacked settlements located near the front line: Kupyansk, Chuguev, Kharkiv and Izyum districts.

·       In the village of Kamyanka, Izyum district, a 60-year-old man exploded on an explosive device, suffered an explosive injury and was hospitalized.

November 17

12:57 Kharkiv RMA: Russian missile strikes on the Izyum district of the Kharkiv region damaged gas production facilities.

·       "We had missile strikes on the Izyum district today. This is the gas industry. We have destruction there. Now all our SES units, gas workers are working to eliminate the consequences of these destructions in order to stabilize the gas supply to our population, enterprises, etc.," Sinegubov said.

12:18 Social Networks: Local residents report explosions in Kharkiv.

LUHANSK

November 18

DONETSK

November 18

10:46 Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol: A series of powerful explosions sounded at night in the Livoberezhny district of the temporarily occupied Mariupol.

·                 "At the same time, the power supply disappeared. Pro-occupant publics are promoting a version of air defense, but the direction of sound, stormy weather indicate continued adversity at the military repair base."

10:37 Donetsk RMA: The night in the Donetsk region passed with isolated shelling in different parts of the front, but without civilian casualties.

·       Vuhledar and Novoukrainka came under fire. There were chaotic shelling of the outskirts of the Avdiivka and Mariinsky communities.

·       Shelling was recorded near Vasyukivka, Rozdolivka and Bakhmutske and on the outskirts of the Toretsk community. The consequences of the shelling are being clarified.

08:40 Donetsk RMA: On November 17, Russians killed 1 civilian in the Donetsk region — in Bakhmut.

·       Another 4 people in the region were injured.

November 17

14:48: Pavlo Kyrylenko reported that the city of Chasovy Yar was shelled by the Russian army

·       6 arrivals and significant damage were recorded. A kindergarten, a boiler room and at least 9 houses were damaged. Three wounded are currently known

14:16 Donetsk RMA: On November 16, Russians wounded 4 civilians in the Donetsk region: 3 in Bakhmut and 1 in Pereizne.

·       In addition, law enforcement officers found the body of 1 civilian killed during the occupation — in Sosnovy.

ZAPORIZHIA

November 18

09:49 President's Office: 2 more dead found in Vilnyansk

·       Thus, from the missiles of Russian terrorists, which yesterday shelled residential buildings, 9 dead have already been identified. Emergency rescue operations are underway.

08:25 Zaporizhia RMA: At night, the Russians attacked peaceful villages. As a result of a rocket hit, probably S-300, in one of the villages of the Zaporozhye district, the building of the house of culture was damaged. According to preliminary data, people were not injured.

05:24 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Melitopol of Zaporizhia region.

electricity, – said the Ministry of Health.

November 17

18:28 press service of the State Emergency Service: In Vilnyansk, Zaporizhia region, under the rubble of a house where a Russian missile hit at night, the bodies of seven dead have already been found.

·       Rescuers, utilities and volunteers have already dismantled approximately 70 tons of remains of building structures.

14:28 Social Networks: Explosions are reported in the temporarily occupied Energodar.

13:41 Mayor: In Melitopol, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed the headquarters of one of the units of the Russian army.

·       As a result of the actions of the Defense Forces in the areas of the settlements of Kinsky Rozdory, Vladivka and Blagoveshchenko of the Zaporozhye region, two ammunition depots, two BM-21 "Grad" units and the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system were destroyed.

12:24 Social Networks: Explosions are reported in temporarily occupied Melitopol.

12:02: Emergency services are carrying out rescue operations in Vilniansk, where a two-story residential building was destroyed as a result of a night missile strike.

·       Currently, 4 dead have been found under the rubble, their personal data is being established. There may still be people under the wreckage of the house, as 4 families lived in it.

DNIPRO

November 18

08:15 Dnipro RMA: Nikopol region suffered from Russian fire again. The Russians several times covered the MLRS Nikopol itself.

·       More than 40 shells were fired at night quarters. It passed without casualties.

04:31 Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region.

01:32 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region.

November 17

15:28 Dnipro RMA: In Dnipro, 23 wounded after morning shelling

·       15 of them are in the hospital. One was in serious condition.

KHERSON

November 18

11:22 Advisor to the Head of Kherson RMA: Ukrzaliznytsia launches a train from Kyiv to Kherson

·                 Trains will depart from Kiev on even numbers, and from Kherson — on odd numbers.

November 17

18:14: Volunteers of the "Ukrainian Team" delivered a humanitarian cargo weighing 30,000 kg - food and medicine to the recently de-occupied Kherson region.

·       According to Orest Kryshtafovych, a volunteer of the Ukrainian Team, today there is a real humanitarian crisis in the Kherson region. Volunteers distribute food packages to residents, and medicines are intended for the central hospital of Kherson. Part of the cargo will be transferred to the military, who are clearing the area of the Russians.

16:33: Denys Monastyrskyi: Kherson region has a high level of mining of roads, residential buildings.The Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs stressed that there is currently a danger due to mined areas:

·       "24/7 pyrotechnics of the State Emergency Service, the National Police and the military, are working on this , which help us demine civilian objects and critical infrastructure. We set a task to clear the main approaches to houses within a month so that people can fully live in settlements."

MYKOLAIV

November 17

14:10 Mykolaiv RMA: Posted footage from the liberated Snihurivka - ATB returns there.

13:24 Mykolaiv RMA: Emergency repairs of roads at the entrance to the de-occupied Snihurivka have been completed and the launch of gas into residents' homes has begun.

ODESA

November 17

13:48: Currently, 70% of DTEK's customers remain without electricity in the Odesa region.

·       Those 30% that have voltage belong to customers whose lines have important objects. Hospitals, some pumping water utilities, capacities of heat generating companies. This was stated by Dmitry Grigoriev, CEO of DTEK Odesa Grids.

12:29 Operational Command South: In Odessa, a rocket hit a logistics facility. One civilian was injured. The blast wave damaged the buildings of the surrounding enterprises.

·       At the same time, six missiles were destroyed by air defense forces over the sea.

·       In total, the Russian army fired "Calibers" from the Black Sea, and six air-launched missiles were sent from two Su-30 aircraft.

KYIV

November 18

10:32 Kyiv RMA: Today, November 18, from 11:00 to 14:00 in the Buchansky district, sappers will destroy explosive objects

00:15 Yasno Chairman: The maximum amount of power outages was recorded in Kyiv. On Thursday, the system was limited to almost 523 MW.

·       He added that the main task of power engineers now is to provide critical infrastructure and stabilize the system in order to avoid even greater damage.

November 17

12:36: Oleksiy Kuleba said that in the Kyiv region, air defense forces shot down several enemy objects that were aiming at our critical infrastructure.

·       There are no arrivals in the region. However, we have hits in other regions of Ukraine.

·       The situation with light in the area remains difficult. According to the decision of Ukrenergo, emergency power outages continue in the Kyiv region.

SUMY

November 18

11:01 Sumy RMA: In the evening after 21.30, the Russian military opened artillery fire on the border of the Znob-Novgorod community. There were 9 "arrivals". The rest of the night was without shelling.

POLTAVA

November 17

15:43 Poltava RMA: In the Poltava region, on the eve of the New Year holidays, the use of festive illumination was banned.

·       According to the OVA, this applies to commercial, municipal and state facilities, streets, squares, parks, Christmas trees and private property.

IVANO FRANKIVSK

November 18

09:24: Mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk urged locals to leave the city for the winter

·       Ruslan Martsinkiv said that there is a high probability that there will be no light for several days.

·       "I recommend finding a place to stay in rural areas or in individual homes. Someone may have a family familiar in the villages. It is advisable to agree on accommodation, it will be very difficult to survive in apartment buildings.

LVIV

November 18

00:00: In Lviv, surgeons performed a successful heart operation in the absence of electricity.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news

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