Bob Homans May 9

20220509

Ukraine – 5/9 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 9, 2022

Victory Day – Come and Gone

Ukraine no longer celebrates Victory Day.  For a few years, Ukraine has been celebrating a “Day of Remembrance” on May 8th, when the rest of Europe celebrates “VE Day.”

On May 9th, 2005, on my 2nd trip to Ukraine and the 60th Anniversary of the end of the “Great Patriotic War, I attended the Victory Day parade in Kyiv.  It was cold and rainy, and the parade was delayed for 2-3 hours to allow, of all things, former President Yushchenko to attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow, even though 8 months previously Yushchenko was poisoned using Dioxin, likely under Russian orders.  

My colleague thought he was going to be able to watch the parade from balcony of his rented Kyiv apartment, only to receive a visit from the SBU, Ukraine’s security service, telling him that, for obvious reasons, standing on balconies during the parade was prohibited.   It was 4 months after the end of the 2004/2005 Orange Revolution.

Other than marking the 60th Anniversary, it was likely to be the last time veterans, most in their late 70’s and 80’s, marched in the Victory Day parade in large numbers.   The parade started off with banners containing the names of the 4 Fronts that made up the Soviet offensive, 1st & 2nd Belarusian Fronts and 1st & 2nd Ukrainian Fronts, with marchers arrayed behind each banner, depending on which Front they were associated with.   It should never be forgotten that most of the Great Patriotic War was fought on what is now an independent Ukraine.

It was an endless parade of both men and women, but no military equipment.   Most of the veterans were in uniform.   Women were carrying bouquets of flowers; everyone with a chest full of medals.   I was able to find a spot, directly opposite the reviewing stand, and I took lots of photographs.   I feel very privileged to have witnessed Victory Day 2005.

Over the last several years, Victory Day in Russia seems to have become less about the veterans and more about Putin and his fantasies.  Several years ago, a Russian NGO engaged in conducting forensic work to determine the number of Soviet soldiers who died in the war concluded that the number wasn’t 8 million, but closer to 13 million.  In response, Russia shut down the NGO, confiscated their computers, and destroyed their files.   The likely reason was to preclude Russia from substantially increasing veterans benefits from the 8 million that Russia officially recognizes, to the 13 million that the NGO had uncovered.

In Camden, Maine there is an obelisk that lists the names of all residents of the Town of Camden who died in what is referred to on the obelisk as “The Great Rebellion,” what we now refer to as the Civil War.   I took my wife there, on our first visit to Camden.  There might be no more than 30 names on the obelisk.   In Ukraine, there are small towns of a similar size to Camden, similar in size to the town south of Kyiv where my wife’s parents are both from, containing hundreds of names.    It is hard to imagine how many of those towns now lie destroyed, all in the name of “de-Nazification.”

The Kyiv-Sumy Highway

Sumy is a city in northern Ukraine, near the border with Russia, around 4 hours from Kyiv.   This is an excellent article from the Wall St. Journal, describing how Ukrainian civilians made the Kyiv-Sumy Highway a highway of death for the Russian invaders.  

The assault on Kyiv consisted of a large pincer movement, roughly paralleling the course of the Dnieper River.   The pincer on the right bank of the Dnieper ended in the cities of Irpin and Bucha.  On the left bank of the Dnieper, some of the pincer came down from Chernigiv, and another from Sumy.  

I have been on both the highway from Chernigiv and the highway from Sumy.  Both highways, especially the Kyiv-Sumy Highway, are beautiful drives through lush country, that is if you’re not driving a tank or armored personnel carrier.   The Kyiv-Sumy Highway is narrow and winding, perfect for ambush.  It is another example of the complete lack of knowledge on the part of Russian planners, of the terrain their troops would have to traverse, and another example of the complete lack of respect for their opponents.

5/9 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)

INTERNATIONAL

The White House has published a list of new US sanctions against Russia, including:
-        visa restrictions for 2600 officials of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus;
-        restriction of export of the Russian industrial sector;
-        the first sanctions against the leaders of Gazprombank;
-        Sanctions against Russian propaganda channels (Channel One, Rossiya-1, NTV);
-        prohibition to use the services of American consulting and accounting firms.  

It is unclear why American law firms were excluded from the recent sanctions imposed on American consulting and accounting firms, preventing them from doing business with Russian firms, especially considering the role that U.S. law firms like Aiken Gump, Trout Cacheris & Skadden Arps, among others, played in advising former President Viktor Yanukovich on various matters, including how to prosecute former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (Aiken Gump & Trout Cacheris), and a written justification for imprisoning Tymoshenko as well as advising the prosecution team in her trial (Skadden Arps).  These engagements were thanks to referrals by Paul Manafort who, at the time, was advising Yanukovich.   In 2013, and in the wake of Ukraine’s decision not to join the EU Free Trade Agreement, 2 other U.S. law firms advised Russia and Ukraine, respectively, on Ukraine’s sale of $15 billion in bonds to Russian buyers.   Only $3 billion was ever issued, out of which $1 billion likely went directly to Yanukovich.

Roscosmos head said that in the event of a nuclear war, Russia would destroy NATO countries in half an hour.   "But we must not allow it, since the consequences of the exchange of nuclear strikes will affect the state of our Earth," he stressed.

British journalist Jeremy Clarkson and his team purchased pickup trucks that have already headed to Ukraine.  They will be used to evacuate civilian battlefields.

German Chancellor said that peace cannot be accepted on Russia's terms.  Ukrainians will not accept them, and we will not accept them either.”

Canadian Nationalpost:  Those accused of the Bucha attack were victims of a US visa ban on Russian officers.

Social Media :A video appeared showing people hurling Molotov cocktails at the military registration and enlistment office in Cherepovets (Russia).

Media reports: The former top manager of "Lukoil" was found dead. Billionaire Alexander Subbotin died after an "anti-hangover session with shamans" in Mytishchi.

The British government press service:  The UK has introduced new sanctions against Russia and Belarus. Trade restrictions will cause damage of $2.1 billion. Import amounting to $1.73 billion concern including platinum and palladium. The package also includes export bans of chemicals, plastics, rubber, and machinery.

CBS Lockheed Martin CEO:  The US plans to double the production of Javelin anti-tank missile systems: from 2,100 to 4,000 units per year.

In Russia, were hacked TV channels. «At night and in the morning, Russian residents who wanted to watch the holiday TV program came across peace and anti-war messages.  At least: MTS, NTV-plus, Rostelekom, Winx», – were hacked writes the former presidential candidate of Russia, Ksenia Sobchak.

British intelligence:

·       Russia’s stockpile of precision-guided munitions has likely been heavily depleted. It has forced the use of readily available but ageing munitions that are less reliable, less accurate and more easily intercepted. Russia will likely struggle to replace the precision weaponry it has already expended.

This leads one to wonder whether it made/makes sense for Russia to expend so many precision weapons on civilian targets, with no military value.

Die Welt:  Greece was suspected of helping Russia circumvent sanctions.  In April, Greece’s share of Russian oil transportation tripled compared to 2021. In April this year, 190 oil tankers left Russian ports. Of these, 76 were under the Greek flag.

CNN:  UN Crisis Coordinator for Ukraine and UN Assistant Secretary-General called the Russian military strike on the school in Bilohorivka another stark reminder of the cruelty of the Russian war against Ukraine, -.

Bloomberg:  Pelosi: We have to approve a $33 billion aid package for Ukraine.

White House:  Today at 21:45 Kyiv time, Biden will approve Act S. 3522 – Law on Lend Lease in Defense of Democracy in Ukraine.

Reuters:  Canadian Prime Minister:  The world will do everything possible to ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin loses his war in Ukraine, including keeping Moscow under sanctions for years.

·       Canada imposed sanctions against 40 Russians, including Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General - Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, Duma deputy Adam Delikhanov, businessmen and representatives of the defence sector.

·       Canada announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth CAD 50 million (about USD 41 million)

·       The free trade agreement between Ukraine and Canada will soon be expanded. 

Bellingcat:  There was a split among Putin's forces.  «There is a party of aggressors. And there is a party of those who want to finish it soon. And the more of such a fight, the better for Ukraine. Therefore, a power vacuum is created that allows Ukraine to increase its defensive capabilities.».

https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2772 Yesterday the EU released survey data on European attitudes towards Ukraine and the war with Russia.  Some highlights:

·       90% of those surveyed sympathize with Ukraine, highest level of sympathy Sweden, Finland, Lithuania and Ireland.

·       70% view Ukraine as part of the European Family, and 66% would like to see Ukraine in the EU.  Lowest approval – Hungary.

·       70% of Europeans monitor the war in Ukraine daily and another 20% at least a few times a week.  Another 40% actively discuss Ukraine events.

·       Almost 90% blame the war on the Kremlin, and 82% believe that there is a difference in support for the war between the Kremlin and Russians.

·       80% support Russian sanctions and economic support of Ukraine.

·       67% support military assistance to Ukraine. 95% - support humanitarian assistance.

·       65% do not believe information they receive about Ukraine from Social Website.s

·       85% believe that the EU should not depend on Russian natural gas and oil

·       86% believe that increased energy prices will have a negative effect on their wellbeing. 

Rallies in support of Ukraine – Lisbon, Sao Paulo, Rome, Basel, Buenos Aires, Cologne, Krakow, Limassol, Madrid, Vilnius, Frankfurt am Main

Victory Day Parade on the Red Square, Russia.  No equipment.  Apparently, weather wouldn’t allow it.  Putin did not announce war and mobilization at the parade in Moscow on May 9.  Putin called the Russian invasion of Ukraine «a response to Western policy».

·       Representatives of Russian troops organized an action in Mariupol dedicated to the celebration of May 9.

·       A 100-year-old Ukrainian veteran, on the eve of the holiday, addressed the Russians: «There is no Nazism or Nazis on Ukrainian land».

·       In Novosibirsk, on the parade of the «Immortal Regiment», police detained activist Vladimir Saltevsky.  He was strolling with a poster -  «I am ashamed for you, grandchildren. We fought for peace, you chose war». Police took the detainee to the police station.

·       In Melitopol, Russian occupiers held a march of «Immortal Regiment».  During the march there were explosions.  Residents heard them in the area of Petro Doroshenko and Heroes of Ukraine Streets.

·       Head of the Russian delegation at the talks with Ukraine in answer to the question of whether he would congratulate Ukrainian colleagues on Victory Day. “When we win, then we will congratulate.”

·       In occupied Kherson in the Park of Glory, representatives of Russian troops gathered with red flags in honor of Victory Day.

White House website: The official statement of the leaders of the countries «G7»:  «We will spare no effort to hold President Putin and the architects and accomplices of this aggression, including the Lukashenko regime in Belarus, accountable for their actions in accordance with international law».

NATIONAL

Deep State Map May 8 22:16 https://deepstatemap.live/#

Prime Minister of Ukraine:  Ukraine plans to confiscate about $500 billion of assets of Russian oligarchs. International allies are ready to help Ukraine with this.

·       We do not plan to allow men to go abroad while the war with Russia is going on. This decision depends on the position of the military.

The US Embassy has resumed work in the capital of Ukraine after two months of absence.

The Washington Post:  Ukraine is rebuilding cities as fast as Russia destroyed them

Ukrainian Business News:  As of the end of April, the number of enterprises that had entirely ceased operations fell to 17% from 32% at the beginning of the full-scale war, as stated in the monthly macroeconomic and monetary review of the National Bank of Ukraine.

Ukrainian Business News:  The construction of 427 residential buildings has resumed in the last month.   According to the real estate portal LUN.ua, 80% of the buildings under construction are located in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, and Zakarpattia regions. Regions with active hostilities did not participate in the study. The Kyiv region, as the largest, has now recovered by only 12%, and the Odesa region has currently resumed about 60% of construction. 

KHARKIV

As a result of shelling by Russian troops of the city of Barvenkovo, Kharkiv region, a civilian was killed, another woman was hospitalized with injuries.

During May 8, Russians opened fire on Kharkiv and Bohodukhivskyi districts, as a result of which 3 civilians were killed and 5 were injured.

In the village of Bohuslavka in Kharkiv region, two Russian tanks got stuck on a sandbar on the Oskil River.

DONBAS

Luhansk Regional Military Administration

·       Fierce battles continue in Belogorovka.  As a result of an airstrike by the Russian occupiers on a school in Belogorovka on Saturday, May 7, 60 people were killed.

·       The Russians were able to build a pontoon crossing across the Seversky Donets River, so that they could cross to the other side, the Ukrainian military are trying to destroy it.

·       Eleven people, who were hiding in a basement in Shypylivka, stopped getting in touch. Russians continue shelling, so it is impossible to clear the rubble neither in Bilohorivka nor in Shypylivka.

·       Dismantling the rubble in the Belogorovsk school is impossible because of the constant shelling.  “There is almost no hope that someone survived. Because the building didn’t just “fold” and the basement collapsed. An aerial bomb exploded inside, a fire broke out and the temperature was critical, there was no oxygen left.

·       Russians once again fired at an oil refinery in Lysychansk.  As a result of the hit by Russian shells, the sulfur recovery unit and the mixing stations caught on fire.

Donetsk Regional Military Administration

Russians destroyed the St. George's Chapel of the Sviatohorsk Lavra (Monastery of Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate) in the Donetsk region.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Operational Command Pivden (South) confirms the information about the mass sailing of Russian sea-based missile carriers. According to OC, all missile carriers are on full alert and are equipped with more than 50 cruise missiles.

Mykolaiv Governor: Water supply has been resumed in Mykolaiv. Now the system is being flushed: this is technical water, you can’t drink it.

·       According to intercepts, there is information that some Russian pilots often fired into fields in order not to follow criminal orders.

Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration:  Russian troops fired from "BM-21 "Grad" at Shyroke community.  In the village of Hannivka, one house was destroyed, and some were damaged. The village is without power. People were not injured.

·       During the night, Russian troops shelled the Zelenodolsk community.

·       They hit the outskirts of the village Velyka Kostromka. Several streets are without power. People were not injured.

Social Media:  In Kherson, Russian troops place MLRS “Grad” between residential areas. 

Zaporizhzhia Regional Military:  In Polohy, Russian soldiers shot up about 20 of their own vehicles to avoid the front line.  However, they accused the representatives of the resistance movement in the temporarily occupied territories of the region.

Odesa following Russian shelling today.  Shells fell on the coastal zone of the Kyiv district.  On May 8, Russian planes from the Black Sea fired three missiles towards Odesa.  The shelling occurred at 16:20. One of the missiles was shot down by air defense, the other two hit a residential area and destroyed a recreation area. There was a fire on the spot. Under the rubble were about 300 square meters.  There were no casualties.

REST OF UKRAINE Sumy Regional Military Administration: - confirmed a rocket attack by the Russian troops on the Shostka region. There are no details yet.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news