Bob Homans May 8
20220509
Ukraine – 5/8 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 8, 2022
Happy Mother’s Day!
Kharkiv Counter Offensive
Starting on May 6th, Ukrainian troops have launched a counter offensive in front of Kharkiv, that is taking the City of Kharkiv out of range of Russian artillery, and it may push Russian troops back to the border with Russia. Ukraine is likely deploying the 155 mm howitzers obtained from the U.S., France, the Czech Republic and others to aid in their advance. According to reports, during its retreat Russia has destroyed bridges to slow Ukraine’s advance.
Russia may be faced with a choice, of whether to transfer troops fighting in Donbass to support troops retreating from in front of Kharkiv. This article from the “Kyiv Independent, by Illia Ponomarenko probably the best-informed reporter covering the war, describes the current situation in Donbass. In his article, Ponomarenko cites the daily reports on the fighting in both Donbas and in front of Kharkiv, compiled by the Institute for the Study of War. ISW’s latest contains maps covering the current situation around Kharkiv.
Kherson
The latest ISW Report, cited above, described possible Russian plans to organize Kherson Oblast into another “People’s Republic,” including offering residents Russian citizenship, introducing the Ruble, and cutting off access to the internet and Ukrainian mobile phone service. At the same time, the maps show Ukrainian offensives that appear to have the dual objectives of re-taking Kherson and protecting Mykolaiv from Russian attacks. The map also shows partisan activity inside Kherson. Ukraine faces a dual threat from fighting against Russian forces, and attempts by Russia to try to incorporate Ukrainian territory they control into “Greater Russia.”
Bayraktar TB-2 Drones
Yesterday I listened to a very interesting podcast from the Modern War Institute at West Point (available at the Apple Store). It was an interview with a Turkish military expert on the development of the TB-2 drone and its uses. Here are some takeaways, with respect to the use of the TB-2 in the war in Ukraine:
· The Turkish expert called the TB-2 a “Flying AK-47.”
· The war in Ukraine is the first time that the TB-2 has been used against Russian equipment operated by Russians (it was used in the recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, involving Russian equipment operated by Armenian soldiers).
· A major use of the TB-2 in Ukraine has been against Russian logistics.
· The TB-2 appears to exploit gaps in Russian detection, including Russian limitations on detecting drones powered by piston engines and gaps in the C-Band, that Ukrainian operators use to communicate with the TB-2
· Ukraine is the first country that has received a license to manufacture the TB-2, including versions that use propulsion systems produced in Ukraine.
· There are now drones produced by the same Turkish manufacturer of the TB-2 that are capable of firing air-launched cruise missiles with a range of up to 200 km (120 miles). Ukraine has the new drones in its possession, possibly explaining some of the explosions at strategic locations inside Russia.
· Ukraine is using video from the TB-2 to publicize the damage it is doing to Russian logistics and armor.
In addition to attacks on Russian logistics and armor, the TB-2 has apparently been used for the first time against Russian air assets, specifically destroying a Russian helicopter that was landing on Snake Island in the Black Sea during a re-supply operation. From the video, there appears to be several secondary explosions.
5/8 Sitrep (my comments in Bold Face)
INTERNATIONAL
Google began blocking the accounts of deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation who fell under US sanctions. For example, the personal account of deputy Nina Ostanina was blocked, and the YouTube channel linked to it was also deleted.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited Irpin near Kyiv.
Bloomberg: Hungary continues to block European Union proposal to ban Russian oil imports, halting entire bloc sanctions package.
Ursula von der Leyen: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine reminds us why we are celebrating Europe Day tomorrow. After 72 years, Europe is united in solidarity with our Ukrainian friends who are striving for the future, for freedom."
Vladimir Putin: "I sincerely wish the Ukrainian veterans of the Great Patriotic War mental endurance, good health and longevity, and all the people of Ukraine - a peaceful and just future."
Nascer do SOL: The Portuguese government has decided to hand over 15 M113 tracked armored personnel carriers and five 155 mm M114 howitzers to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Roscosmos head: Warned Elon Mask that he is responsible for providing Ukrainian Armed Forces with military communications. ""According to our information, the delivery and transmission to the Armed Forces of Ukraine of subscriber boxes of Internet reception and transmission from Starlink was carried out by the Pentagon."
RusTV: "Mobilization will not help Russia"! Also it was stated that Russia does not have modern equipment, strategic reserves are running out, and there are not many people willing to fight with obsolete weapons.
The mayor of Warsaw, opposed the celebration of May 9 by Russians in the capital of Poland. According to him, the Russian Embassy appealed to the Polish Foreign Ministry with a request to allow celebrations on May 9 in Warsaw.
The New York Times: CIA Director: The new phase of the Russian offensive in the Donbas is no less dangerous than the initial stage of the invasion. "Putin is set in such a way that he cannot afford to lose, so the stakes are high."
The Moscow Times: Russia has begun moving troops from Syria to Ukraine to speed up the stalled "campaign to annex Donbass."
La Repubblica: The authorities of the Italian Zagarolo city have banned a rally in memory of Soviet soldiers because of the letter Z in the form of a St. George ribbon.
Ukrainian Embassy in the UK: The charity exhibition 'Brave Ukraine' raised a million dollars in London for humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Speaker of the State Duma: The United States are coordinating and developing military operations, thereby directly participating in hostilities against Russia.
Al-Qaeda: US "weakness" caused their ally Ukraine to become "prey" for a Russian invasion.
RND: Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany criticized the decision of the Berlin police to ban the demonstration of Ukrainian flags on May 8-9.
CNN: US First Lady Jill Biden visited a school in Romania that accepted Ukrainian refugee children. Earlier today, she traveled to Uzhgorod, Ukraine, on the border with Slovakia to meet with Ukraine’s First Lady, Olena Zelenska.
Demonstrations in support of Ukraine: Varna, Vienna, Munich, Tenerife, Heilbrone,
Washington Post: The Pentagon will buy laser-guided missiles and surveillance drones for Ukraine.
Fires in Russia: Altai Region, Belgorod, Krasnoyarsk, Perm
Montenegrin Foreign Minister: The newly appointed Montenegrin government is preparing a package to implement all sanctions against Russia, previously imposed by the European Union.
Delfi: The Latvian Seimas supported an amendment that permits removal of the Soviet memorial in the center of Riga.
Financial Times: European and American banks are ready for losses totaling more than $ 10 billion in the event of a reduction in operations in Russia or complete withdrawal from the Russian market.
More U.S. Sanctions (Wall St. Journal):
· The U.S. announced sanctions against 3 State-owned Russian TV stations, Channel One Russia, Russia-1, and NTV Broadcasting, including cutting off “advertising dollars, broadcast technology, video cameras, microphones and other equipment to all Russian news stations covering the war.
· Individual managers of Sberbank and Gazprombank. Sberbank is Russia’s largest commercial bank; Gazprombank is the recipient of payments for natural gas produced by Gazprom.
· Bars American accounting and managing consulting firms from offering professional services to Russian companies which, in turn, could be used to evade sanctions.
The 3 most under-reported events, not sanctions themselves but business decisions created by fear of sanctions, are:
· Departure from Russia of 3 international oil services companies, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton from servicing oil fields in Eastern Siberia, where much of the Russian oil sales to China originates.
· Reduction of the activities of 2 of the world’s largest oil traders, Glencore and Vitol, from the Russian market, severely crimping sale of Russian oil to markets such as Africa and Latin America.
· Departure of the “Big 4” audit firms from the Russian market, preventing Russian firms from presenting audited financial statements prepared by “Big 4” firms.
NATIONAL
Zelensky met with Canadian and Norwegian heads in Kyiv.
Bono and Edge from U2 gave a live concert last night at Khreshchatyk metro station, Kyiv.
Kyiv World War II veterans asked Putin to give Ukrainian soldiers and civilians who are on the territory of Azovstal an opportunity to get out of the encirclement.
Ministry of Finance: The Government of Ukraine allocated an additional UAH 359 million for the purchase, modernization and repair of military equipment for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
· Ukraine will receive $1.5 billion from the World Bank. The money will be used to pay salaries to government employees at the national and regional levels.
The founder of the Ukrainian Legion, Sviatoslav Stetsenko, died in a battle with the Russians on May 5, the organization says.
Minister of Economy: Over the past five days, more imported fuel has been imported into Ukraine than is consumed.
Security Service of Ukraine: Intercepted Russian soldiers describing killing Ukrainian mothers in front of their children.
.Ministry of Defense: Confirmed that a Russian landing boat and two Tor anti-aircraft missile systems were hit by a Bayraktar drone near Zmiinyi ('Snake') Island.
· As a result of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine units, the Russian troops lost control over Tsyrkuny.
· The enemy tried to take Virnopillia, but failed, suffered losses and retreated.
· In Donetsk direction, the enemy concentrated his main efforts on taking Rubizhne under full control and preparing for an attack on the settlements of Lyman and Severodonetsk.
· In Polohy, Zaporizhzhia region, the enemy was successfully defeated, losing part of his weapons and military equipment. The personnel retreated from their positions.
· More than 100 wounded military personnel of the airborne troops of the RF Armed Forces were left behind in the village of Burchak, Zaporizhzhia region.
· The Russians used the 'Solntsepek' flamethrower system against their own positions in the Zaporizhzhia, destroying many colleagues.
SCHEMES: Russia has pulled heavy equipment, including SAM, MLRS and OTRK, to the north of Crimea near Kherson reference to Planet Labs satellite images
KHARKIV
Kharkiv Regional Military Administration: Russians continue to fire on civilians in Kharkiv region. They shelled the communities the Chuhuiv, Zolochiv, and Krasnohrad. Doctors managed to take out three wounded civilians from occupied Ruski Tyshky to Kharkiv,.
A building of the Kharkiv National Aerospace University named was destroyed by Russian shelling last night.
The Kharkiv Regional Oncology Center hit by Russian shelling last night.
DONBAS
Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications: Luhansk mobile operator in occupied Luhansk has switched to Russian numbering. A separate code of the Russian numbering system - "+7 959" has been allocated for subscribers.
Luhansk Regional Military Administration
· In Pryvillia "After shelling, the Luhansk-1 rapid response group went around the city in search of possible victims. Two corpses of minors were found in a yard. Boys aged 11 and 14 were found without signs of life. Two more girls, aged 12 and 8, and a woman, aged 69, were injured.
· Lysychansk and Severodonetsk are without electricity as a result of an air strike.
· As a result of shelling by Russian troops, Popasne Watercanal was damaged: 1 million of people who live in Luhansk were left without water.
Donetsk Regional Military Administration
· In Bakhmut,1 person was killed by a Russian airstrike, but there may be more victims. Two private houses were completely destroyed, 11 houses and premises of several enterprises were damaged.
· Russian airstrikes yesterday: Bakhmut, Malotaranivka (near Kramatorsk), Druzhivka, Drobishevo (near Liman), Ocheretino, Svitlodarsk.
· Russian missile hit a school in the city of Konstantinovka. As a result, two people were killed, nine more were injured.
Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: Russian officers have been ordered to leave combat positions in Southern Ukraine to protect the "parade" on May 9 in Mariupol.
Mayor: Last night Kramatorsk hit by missiles 15 houses were damaged and infrastructure, 2 people got injured
Deputy Mayor of Mariupol: Locals are inscribing doors of abandoned apartments with approximate dates of death and the date when the body was found.
· In Mariupol, they are preparing for a parade on May 9. "While the Russian 'officials deny holding a parade in Mariupol, ribbons are again massively distributed around the city and invited to the celebration and parade on May 9 in the city center and Prymorskyi Park.
More than 10,000 civilians may be in mass graves near Mariupol.
Yasinovataya railyard in occupied Donetsk hit by Ukrainian forces: one train burnt completely, and the railyard is out of service.
Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine: All women, children and elderly people have been evacuated from Azovstal. This part of the Mariupol humanitarian operation has been completed.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Social Website : Hola Prystan, Kherson, hit by rockets; 25 houses were damaged and 1 completely destroyed. Forest fires broke out after the strike.
South Operational Command: Russians fired four cruise missiles at the Odessa region. 6 missile attacks on Odesa. 4 rockets hit a civilian enterprise in a residential area. A fire broke out after the impact which was extinguished. Two rockets hit the previously destroyed airport runway.
The mayor of occupied Tokmak, Igor Kotelevsky, has died. Kotelevsky refused to cooperate with Russian soldiers, but continued to be in the city, working and helping the locals. The circumstances of the death are being clarified.
Zaporozhia Regional Military Administration: The Russian military looted the Polohy Oil Refinery, stealing finished products.
· All of Zaporizhzhia region, there is an extended curfew - from 19:00 on May 8 to 05:00 on May 10. This applies even to the temporarily occupied territories.
Mayor of Melitopol "According to the law enforcement agencies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian soldiers plan to shoot civilians, disperse protesters - do everything to provoke chaos and panic on May 9".
Social Website: Near Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia region, there is a large convoy of thousands of cars trying to leave Melitopol, Enehgodar, Dniprorudne to Zaporizhzhia. According to them, for three days the Russians have not let anyone through, and people have to spend the night in the field in cars.
Social Website: Last night, the Russian military fired phosphorus shells at Mykolaiv.
City authorities of Voznesensk: Four explosions thundered today in the Voznesenskyi raion of Mykolaiv Oblast. There is no information about possible casualties and destruction yet.
Mayor: On May 9, technical water will appear in Mykolaiv (it cannot be drunk or used for cooking). According to the Mayor, “yesterday we started filling our reservoirs in different districts of the city with water from the Southern Buh River. We are cleaning it first."
· A Russian rocket hit the city, but not in a residential area.
As a result of yesterday's shelling of Odesa, 252 flats were damaged. Most of them have broken windows.
"Already the sixth death in the Dnipropetrovsk region from Russian cluster munitions. In the Sinelnikovsky area a 12-year-old boy found ammunition and died when it detonated.
REST OF UKRAINE
Sumy Regional Military Administration: The region was shelled by Russians; the communities of Miropol and Khotyn were hit.
State Border Service of Ukraine: Russian planes that fired on Sumy region today also opened fire on the territory of the Russian Federation.
Mayor of Kiyv: "In Kiyv more than 200 apartment houses were damaged by shelling. Also, 46 schools were destroyed, 30 kindergartens and more than 70 urban infrastructure facilities."
· “The goal was and remains: to capture the heart of Ukraine - the capital. We must not forget about it. The question is: can they or not? I give a clear answer: never.”
· A new air defense systems may appear in Kyiv in the near future.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis