Bob Homans May 6

20220506

Ukraine – 5/6 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 6, 2022

Why Does Putin Considers Ukraine a Threat?

For one answer, watch this 15-minute video.    It describes the work done by Ukrainian investigative journalists, to recover incriminating documents from the estate of former President Viktor Yanukovich, starting on February 22, 2014.   Yanukovich fled Kyiv by helicopter early that morning.

The investigative journalists in this video are a small example of the growth of civil society in Ukraine especially since 2000.   In her recent book, “Lessons From the Edge,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch described how the brutal 2000 murder of investigative journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, possibly under orders from former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, galvanized many courageous Ukrainians to start holding Government malfeasance to account.   Today “Civil Society,” similar to all sorts of volunteer groups that are common in the United States, act almost as a shadow government in Ukraine.  

At this point there is nothing Russia can do to diminish the influence of Civil Society in Ukraine, up to and including the war that Russia launched against Ukraine last February 24th.   Rather than a creation of American financing and influence, Euromaidan was a creation of Ukrainian civil society.   The Ukrainian Army, that has proven to be so successful fighting against Russia, mirrors the organization of Euromaidan – small groups organizing around a greater goal.    It is true that Western trainers helped create a culture where non-commissioned officers have the authority to make battlefield decisions, but the ability of personnel in the Ukrainian Army, at all levels, to accept and implement that training came from civil society and Euromaidan.   This organization, as much as anything, explains the success of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

The video also gives one a sense of Mezhihirya, Yanukovich’s 325-acre (133 hectare) estate.   A map in the video shows the distance from one end of the estate to the other as 5km (3 miles).  Much of the early document recovery work took place in the boathouse.   Later, the boathouse was a venue for “Mezhihirya Fest,” a conference covering issues relating to anti-corruption and asset recovery.   I attended the 2018 Mezhihirya Fest; the boats, and other craft, were still there.   Apparently, the boathouse has now been heavily damaged.   This video of the recovery of a destroyed Russian helicopter, shows the boathouse in the background. 

I’ve been to Mezhihirya once, during Mezhihirya Fest, and I will never go back.   For starters, the footpaths around the estate are lit by hundreds of decorative lampposts costing €2,000 each. 

As far as I’m aware, no one ever went to jail for the massive theft of public property, described in the documents discovered at Mezhihirya.   It is one illustration of the dire need for judicial accountability in Ukraine.   Another is that no one went to jail for Gongadze’s murder.

Artillery –

This is a very interesting article about the type of artillery now being supplied to Ukraine by the United States, France, the Czech Republic, and others.   It appears that the most effective artillery comes from France, with a range of up to 25 miles.  Continued incorporation of this artillery into Ukrainian formations will likely accelerate the counter offensives now going on around Kharkiv, in the northeast, and Kherson, in the south.  

One of the maps shows the situation in Transnistia, a breakaway portion of Moldova located between Moldova and Ukraine.  I would not be surprised to see Ukraine attempt to hit the ammunition depot shown on the map.

Beer Fundraising For Ukraine Relief

Several craft breweries in Northern Virginia are banding together to sell beer, under the brand name of “Putin Hylo.”  Hylo is a Ukrainian word for “D__kHead.”   They hope to raise $20,000 for Ukraine relief.

Meanwhile, North Coast Brewing of Ft. Bragg, Ca., a company that happens to be a former leasing customer of mine, is dedicating profits from the sales of “Old Rasputin Imperial Stout” to Ukraine relief.   You can buy Old Rasputin at Whole Foods Market, Harris Teeter in Virginia, and other outlets.

5/6 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)

INTERNATIONAL

⚡️Estonia will issue 2 million € 2 coins with the inscription "Glory to Ukraine" Eesti Pank plans to transfer the money from the sales to the National Bank of Ukraine.  The design of the coin was created by Daria Titova, a student who left Kharkiv and is currently studying at the Estonian Academy of Arts.

The military prosecutor's office of the Russian Federation explained to Dmitry Shkrebets, the father of one of the conscripts who served on the cruiser, Moscow, the "loss" of his son.  The cruiser "Moscow" was in the territorial waters of Ukraine and did not participate in the "special operation". He was declared "missing in the military unit" as a result of "an emergency that killed the ship."

Chief of staff of the US Army:  The Russian army has not been able to implement its military plan.  "The plan that was in Russia is very complex. Such a plan requires very trained and disciplined soldiers. They did not have enough trained soldiers. To implement such a military plan, Russia needed a much better logistics system."

State Department The US's ability to deliver arms to Ukraine is 'inexhaustible'.

Polish President:  There will actually be no border between Poland and Ukraine  This border will not exist! So that we live together on this earth, building and rebuilding together our common happiness and common strength, which will allow us to repel any danger or any possible threat.

Scholz and Biden have said they intend to "substantially and continuously" support Ukraine and its territorial integrity

Speaker of the State Duma:  Russia will not be able to feel safe until a decision is made on the non-bloc and non-nuclear status of Ukraine.  All those who went abroad will be forced to abandon their language, culture, and their parents.

Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs:  Putin may announce the annexation Ukrainian territories on May 9.

80% of Europeans support sanctions against Russia and its oligarchs, Eurobarrometer poll   In addition, 93% of Europeans support humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

The European Parliament calls for Moldova to be granted the status of a candidate for EU membership - a resolution on the EP website

Italian Prime Minister:  Italy will increase assistance to Ukraine to more than 800 million euros.  Italy has already allocated about 500 million euros to support Ukrainian refugees. And we are increasing this amount to more than 800 million euros. We have transferred 110 million in support of the general budget of Ukraine and plan to increase the loan to 200 million euros.

Meduza:  Street art symbolizing the massacre in Bucha appeared in the Akademgorodok microdistrict in Russian Novosibirsk.   Graffiti on the pavement depicts dead people with their hands tied.  The author of the graffiti is unknown.

European Commission President:  "We are on the side of Ukraine and we want Ukraine to win this war."

German Defense Minister:  Germany will supply Ukraine with seven PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers in addition to the five promised by the Dutch.  Training of Ukrainian military personnel in the possession of artillery weapons may begin next week in Germany.

European Commissioner for Economic Affairs:  A full embargo on Russian oil will be introduced by the European Union in 9 months.

German Chancellor:   Russia has not achieved its goals in Ukraine, but it is demonstrating its readiness to further destroy the neighboring country, so there is no point in hoping for an early end to the war.

New York Times:  A $700 million yacht connected to Vladimir Putin is repaired in Italy and with full tanks now ready to sail at any time.  "Shaherezada" was refloated after 9 months of dry dock.

Putin apologized to Israel for Lavrov's anti-Semitic remarks. This was reported by the office of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett following their phone conversation.

Putin:  Kyiv should order the Ukrainian military at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol to lay down their arms.

Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary:  Hungary is willing to help with rebuilding schools and hospitals of the Kyiv region, those appointed to them by the Ukrainian government

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine:  President of the Moldovan Parliament Igor Grosu visits Bucha and Irpin.

Bild:  Reportedly in a phone conversation between President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi and President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier  "The parties agreed to let bygones be bygones and focus on the future cooperation."

Associated Press:  Using nuclear weapons is unacceptable – Lukashenko.  He also said that Belarus will not participate in the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.

Media reports The Immortal Regiment event is being renamed in Almaty.  From now on the annual demonstration in memory of the World War II veterans is going to be called «Батырларға тағзым» ("Let's bow to heroes").

The Polish media reported that Poland has built 50 kilometres of fence about 5 metres high on its border with Belarus, and damage has already been recorded from the Belarusian side.  In one case, unknown people tried to cut the metal parts of the fence; in the other, they tried to expand the spans between them. Also, the Polish border guards found two tunnels under the fence.

Russian media:  Pro Russian Ukrainian blogger arrested in Spain the day before yesterday was released on bail yesterday. From Madrid, he is going to return home to Catalonia, where he will wait for the completion of the extradition process. -

The UK Revenue Service today revoked the status of the Moscow Exchange as a recognized stock exchange.

The New York Times:  India sees buying Russian oil as a good deal, regardless of the diplomatic costs.

Experts drew attention to the map of arsons of factories and armories in Russia after February 24, which resembles a map of railway resistance coverage areas.

For several years individual Ukrainians, several of whom are veterans of Euromaidan, have been active in Russia, mostly working with ethnic minorities by helping them defend their cultural and linguistic identities and resist the Russian draft.   It may be that their efforts are now shifting toward sabotage.   One area to watch, especially if Finland joins NATO, is activities by ethnic Finns now living in Russia, along the Finnish border.

NATIONAL

Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the UN:  One of the Russian's goal is a global food crisis

Ukrainian primitivist painter Maria Primachenko's painting "Flowers grew at the fourth block" was sold at auction for half a million dollars.  The entire amount will go to the needs of the Armed Forces.

Humanitarian headquarters Kyiv region:  “We understand that fuel will become more expensive... The only supplier of fuel will be the European Union, and accordingly, price of fuel will be at the level with neighboring countries.”

A medic from Azovstal asked Turkish President to assist in the evacuation of civilians and wounded soldiers from the plant.  According to him, the wounded are dying from bullets, in agony, from lack of medicines and appalling conditions.

President's Office of Ukraine:   "Yesterday, Russian military entered Azovstal, however they are now dislodged by our defenders"

·       almost 500 civilians had been evacuated from Mariupol and Azovstal in particular.

The Security Service of Ukraine:  Arrested one of Viktor Medvedchuk's "Ukrainian choice" party leaders .  The name is not being revealed however reportedly this person "is involved in planning a subversion of the constitutional order of Ukraine and coordinating their actions with the russian special services".

·       counter-intelligence arrests an agent of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, major of the National Police.  The arrested criminal investigator was being contolled by the special services of Russia through one of his relatives, a retired Special Police Officer from Belgorod.

Chief Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:  “The Defense Forces of Ukraine are about to counterattack at the Kharkiv and Izium axes.  Main Russian troops are moving to the Luhansk axis where heavy combats are happening at Popasna, Kreminna and Torske.”

Sociological group "Rating":  Over the past ten years, the attitude towards Stepan Bandera has completely changed in Ukraine.  If in 2012, only 22% of Ukrainians declared a positive attitude, now it is 74%.   

Speaking personally, I would say that much of increased positive attitude toward Bandara is more a way for Ukrainians to poke a finger in Russia’s eye than anything else.   As an example, former President Poroshenko is now active in a territorial defense unit.   For his unit Poroshenko has produced, with his own funds, the “BanderaMobile.”   The photo shows Poroshenko behind the wheel.   It is likely that the BanderaMobile serves primarily as an anti-Russian gesture, lampooning Russian description of Ukrainians as “Banderites.”

It is important to remember that President Zelenskyy is Jewish, and several prominent Ukrainian politicians have Jewish ancestry.   Today, and prior to the start of the war, Ukraine has far less anti-Semitic activity within its borders, than is the case with many other European countries and, arguably, the United States.   Unlike other European countries, since the 2014 Parliamentary elections when the Svoboda Party was voted out, no far right political party has come close to attaining the required 5% of the popular vote necessary to achieve representation in Ukraine’s Parliament.   In the most recent French Presidential election, the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, got 42% of the popular vote.

Voice of America:  It is impossible to restore the An-225 "Mriya", but it is possible to create a new aircraft based on the unfinished "sister" of "Mriya".

DONBAS

Luhansk Regional Military Administration

·       Not a single filling station or a train with fuel is left in the Luhansk region of Ukraine, and it would be deadly to transport it

·       Russians are trying to break through in Rubizhne and Popasna, street battles are going on, cities are under constant shelling.

·         New hot spots - Borovenky and Voevodivka (village on the outskirts of Severodonetsk). In the latter - a precarious situation, control over the village between parties is constantly changing. Ukrainian soldiers repulsed the last attack, and continue to hold their positions.

Donetsk Regional Military Administration

·       During morning rocket attack on Kramatorsk, invaders damaged 810 apartments in 32 high-rise buildings   No dead, 25 wounded

·       May 5, one wounded in Liman and two who died earlier - in Vremenyi Yar and Novomikhaylyvka.   In addition, one person died in Bakhmut

Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol:  By deporting Mariupol citizens, Russia solves its own economic problems. “Firstly, the demographic issue because Ukrainians are being sent to regions that Russians are leaving.  These are economically depressed, few people and no one to work at state-owned enterprises.

·       Mariupol is turning into a Ukrainian ghetto. People are completely disenfranchised, Russians mock them and treat them like cattle.

BILD:  A Ukrainian fighter who is fighting at the besieged Azovstal plant in Mariupol: “The enemy has already broken into the factory premises. <...> I think they want to capture a few of us alive by May 9th to send them to the parade in cages.”

Novyi Trud:  According to the National Police of Ukraine Russian troops attacked Mariupol, Avdiivka, Sloviansk, Sviatohosk, Marinka, Kramatorsk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Mykolaivka, Ivanivka, New-York in Donetsk Oblast.  At least 35 civilian objects were destroyed: residential buildings, a boarding school, a coke-chemical and a chemical plant, life support facilities, and a railway.

KHARKIV

 Kharkiv Regional Military Administration: 

·       Russians continue to commit war crimes in occupied territories.  Russian military is forcibly deporting Kharkiv residents to Russia, taking away their means of communication and documents.

·       In Izyum, the Russians tried to mobilise the local population, forcing them to join the ranks of the Russian armed forces.

·       In Vovchansk, the Russian military set up a prison on the territory of one enterprises after taking the equipment to Russia. They use the labour of local residents, forcing them to cooperate with the occupation regime.

Residents of Kharkiv (Ukraine) are reporting explosions in the downtown in social media. We are waiting for official information.

During today’s shelling of Kharkiv Ecopark by Russians, a 15-year-old volunteer who helped feed and evacuate animals died, the regional prosecutor’s office reports.

Three other people were injured, police said.

·       SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration:

·       Battles near Huliaipole and along the entire confrontation line in the Oblast. The Russians have up to 13 battalion tactical groups in this area,

·       Local citizens of occupied Berdiansk report that the Russian military has begun to go around apartments, checking phones, documents and tattoos on people's bodies.

·       Administrative and police measures continue in the temporarily occupied territories. The Russians are carrying out filtration measures against local residents, preventing evacuation to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. They also continue to plunder the products of agricultural enterprises. But at the same time, the invaders imitate humanitarian activities with the demonstration distribution of food kits and medicines to the locals.

·       Russian invaders want to take land from people. They are forced to fill out a form by May 8, which indicates how much land the owner has, how much is leased. Only then will a license to cultivate the land be issued. Otherwise, the commandant will take away all the land not indicated in the papers of the occupiers.

·       According to the residents of the occupied Vasylivka, the Russian military in the city are trying to exchange one SIM card of a Ukrainian mobile operator for gasoline worth UAH 15 per liter. In Dniprorudne, two SIM cards are immediately exchanged for a car. The reason is that the Russian invaders want to call each other and home, but there are no telephones, neither communications.

Report that Russian Authorities have banned the sowing of corn and sunflower in occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia region. They are afraid of tall crops.

Operational command Pivden (South):

·       Ukrainian missile and artillery units firing on Russian positions, inflicted preliminary losses of 32 Russian soldiers, 3 tanks, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, 1 armored personnel carrier, 1 armored combat vehicle, 1 ATT and 2 UAVs.

·       Closely monitoring three enemy missile ships and a missile submarine capable of launching rockets from the Black Sea.

·       In the temporarily occupied Tokmak, Russians are mass sewing Armed Forces of Ukraine uniforms from on May 3. Most likely, the Russian military will try to commit provocations on the occupied territories or will participate in the "parade of prisoners."

·       In the northwestern part of the Black Sea, there is a threat of landing by the Russian army.

Another Russian Navy Ship Hit - According to media reports, a Ukrainian Armed Forces unit struck the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov (the link includes a photo of the ship), which was damaged and is burning in the Black Sea near Zmiinyi (Snake) Island.   Russian aircraft are now circling over this area of the Black Sea, and rescue vessels have come out of the temporarily occupied Crimea to help the ship.

Snake Island is where Ukrainian defenders flipped off the Russian cruiser “Moskva” (since sunk) and has thus become a symbol of Ukrainian defiance.

Kryvi Rih Military Administration:  Today, Russian troops continued shelling peaceful territories in the area of Zahradovka, Zelenodolsk, Knyazevka, Trudolyubovka, Topolinoye, Dobryanka, Velyka Kostromka and other settlements.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news