Ukraine – 5/5/2023 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
May 5, 2023
Some Vignettes
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy - This is a short clip of Speaker McCarthy answering the question of a Russian journalist concerning future U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. At the time, Speaker McCarthy was making a visit to Israel. I cannot imagine Speaker McCarthy making these remarks if Tucker Carlson hadn’t been fired from Fox News, for the following reasons:
· As Speaker, McCarthy has supplied Carlson with large amounts of video taken during the January 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol building.
· Prior to his exit from Fox News, Carlson had been engaged in pressuring senior Republican elected officials to publicly announce that they’re in favor of withholding support for Ukraine, most notably Florida Gov. Ron De Santis who, in response to a question by Carlson, described Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine as a “territorial dispute.” Carlson would’ve done the same with McCarthy.
· As a condition of obtaining enough Republican support for his election as Speaker, McCarthy had to agree to a provision that allowed 1 Member of the House to put his continuation as Speaker to a vote. With Carlson gone it is far less likely that there will be a challenge to McCarthy’s Speakership because of his professed support for assistance to Ukraine.
As Speaker, Kevin McCarthy has the power to bring legislation to the House Floor. Therefore, Republican supporters of ending support for Ukraine, like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Georgia) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colorado), and others, have lost all their leverage with Speaker McCarthy, at least with respect to McCarthy’s support for assistance to Ukraine. Same is true with the Progressive Democrats who also oppose assistance to Ukraine, like Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Washington State) the Head of the House Progressive Caucus. When it comes to the matter of withholding assistance to Ukraine, Reps. Green, Boebert and Jayapal are like 3 peas in a pod.
13 year-old Ukrainian singer declines to share the stage with a Russian performer – Good for her!
Ukrainian slugs Russian at a conference in Turkey – The Russian tried to take a Ukrainian flag from the conference hall.
“If Ukraine Succeeds, it Should be Explainable”/Meduza.io
“Meduza has obtained a copy of new guidelines compiled by the Putin administration for Russia’s propaganda media. Among other things, it includes the Kremlin’s instructions for how pro-government news outlets should report on Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive.” Essentially, Russia’s media strategy is to frame the success of Ukraine counterattack as an offensive launched by NATO.
News From the Battlefield
The latest “Reporting From Ukraine” has a new slant on the fighting around Bakhmut. Last Fall, after Ukraine’s success around Kharkiv, we were talking about a Ukraine attack toward Lysychansk, with the goal of cutting off Russian troops operating in Bakhmut from behind. At the time, perhaps Ukraine couldn’t pursue this effort due to lack of weapons and ammunition. This may now be what is developing. His video is one of his best – well-worth watching.
5/5/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon May 4 to 12:00 noon May 5, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Friday May 5
10:33 am: HIMARS production and service center to appear in Poland during 2023, says Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.
· It will work not only for Poland, but also for other European countries that are interested in buying these missile systems.
8:30 am: International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan expressed confidence that if Russian President Putin visits South Africa, he will be arrested. Khan said this during a meeting of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Commons of Canada.
8:19 am The Guardian: Belizean Prime Minister Johnny Briseño has criticized British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's refusal to apologize for his country's role in the transatlantic slave trade, saying Belize could leave the Commonwealth and become a republic.
8:18 am: Armenia and Azerbaijan have made progress in peace talks – State Department
12:25 am: At the PABSEC summit in Ankara, a conflict arose between the delegations of Ukraine and Russia.
· Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada tried to disrupt the speech of Russian State Duma deputy Timofeeva — she wore one of the symbols of Russian aggression "St. George's ribbon" on her jacket.
· On the sidelines of the PABSEC summit in Turkey, a Russian delegate tried to snatch Ukrainian flag.
· A Ukrainian delegate caught up with the Russian delegate, slugged him a couple of times in the face, and took back the flag.
· This act of his did not go unpunished. The Ukrainian delegation returned the flag using convincing arguments.
Thursday May 4
10:00 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during his visit to the Netherlands, was shown military equipment that will be transferred to the Ukrainian military.
· "Here and now we see what help is and what life protection is. This is the most honorable mission – to do everything for life to win.
· Weapons from this base, which help our defenders, will save lives - normal, free, based on respect life of Ukrainians and all Europeans," the president wrote.
7:56 pm: The First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, arrived in London today. There she will attend the coronation of Charles III, according to Insider News.
· Olena Zelenska has already met with the wife of British Prime Minister Akshata Murthy near the residence of the Prime Minister.
7:26 pm: "The likelihood that Russia will use its nuclear weapons is extremely small," said US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
6:12 p.m.: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands.
· "I thanked for the comprehensive support by the Netherlands of Ukraine in protecting our freedom and independence, as well as for the personal care of the King and the royal family for Ukrainians who arrived in the Netherlands in search of refuge from the war," the president wrote.
04:18 pm: The Netherlands is negotiating with European countries and other partners to supply F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.
· This was stated by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte during a press conference.
· "We are working very closely with Belgium, Denmark, Great Britain, other partners in order to bring this to completion. We haven't come close to that yet. This is a very sensitive topic," Rutte said.
Business Activity Expectations Index is a weighted average indicator that is calculated on the basis of each sector's share in the weight structure.
3:39 pm: Belgium is preparing a new package of military assistance for Ukraine.
· This was stated by Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo in The Hague during a press conference.
· "As you know, there may be practical obstacles with these military packages. But there is no doubt that we must continue this support," the prime minister said.
3:18 pm:The President of Ukraine today addressed the Parliament of the Netherlands, the Speakers of the House of Representatives and the Senate of the States General:
· "We remember the leadership of the Netherlands in initiating the delivery of PzH 2000 – thank you for this bold decision, for the Patriot and other weapons.
· Remember that the Netherlands was the first to say that the F-16 is not a taboo. Your leadership really pays off."
· The Netherlands has its own history of gaining its independence from repressive, autocratic rule, in their case it was the Spanish.
2:40 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Katsheis at the official residence of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
· According to the publication, a little later, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo joined the conversation.
2:25 pm:Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with President of the International Criminal Court Piotr Hofmanski and ICC Secretary Osvaldo Zavala Aguiler.
· "For us, the result is exclusively specific sentences to all Russian war criminals. Including the top leadership of the aggressor country," Zelensky wrote.
1:26 pm:Vitali Klitschko met with the mayor of Brussels: the capital of Belgium handed over another batch of ambulances and other humanitarian aid to Kyiv.
· "Today, at the City Hall, I met with the Mayor of Brussels Philippe Klose and the delegation of the Belgian capital, which arrived at my invitation in Kyiv. Philippe Klose handed over 2 modern ambulances from the capital of Belgium.
· They will save the health and lives of civilians in Kyiv who suffer from constant massive attacks by Russian barbarians," Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
12:47 pm:President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a speech at the International Criminal Court in The Hague:
· "Of course, we all want to see another Volodymyr here, we want to see him in The Hague. I am sure that this will happen when we win, and we win not only on the battlefield, not only in the duel with aggression."
· Ukraine did not want this war and will make it the last in the world, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a speech in The Hague.
· "Today, as always, on May 4, in the evening, let us pay tribute to the memory of those whose lives were taken by wars. World War II, others.
· Please also remember Ukrainians who could be alive today if it were not for this aggression," the president said.
· "In April alone, the Russian occupiers committed 6139 war crimes, as a result of which 207 people died, 17 of whom were children.
· We need a real full-fledged tribunal, real justice, not hybrid. This should be a guarantee of non-repetition of such aggression."
NATIONAL
Friday May 5
11:50 am: Russia does not provide any data on children deported from Ukraine, says Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets.
· "The Russian side has never given and does not give us any figures. Neither in relation to adopted children, nor in relation to children who are there, nor in relation to information about where they are and in what conditions. That is, information does not come from them," Dmytro Lubinets said.
8:53 am Operational Command East: On the night of May 5, the Russians used two Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs from the southeast.
· Both drones destroyed in the area of responsibility of the air command
7:17 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· Russians are concentrating their main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut and Mariinsky directions, where, during the day, units of the defense forces repelled about 60 attacks. The fiercest battles are for Bakhmut and Marinka
· Compulsory passportization of Ukrainian citizens in Stanytsia Luhansk district of Luhansk region continues - General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
· Thus, according to the order of the Russian occupation so-called "administration", heads of local organizations and enterprises were instructed to provide information on the measures taken to certify the local population.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 6 strikes on areas of concentration of Russian personnel
· In addition, 4 Lancet barrage ammunition was destroyed.
· During the day, units of rocket troops and artillery hit 1 control point, 8 areas of concentration of manpower, 2 ammunition depots and 1 station of electronic warfare.
Thursday May 4
11:21 pm: 10,000 UAV operators trained under Army of Drones project
· "We have recently completed the first part of the UAV pilot training project, 10,000 pilots have been trained during this time. That is, the "Army of Drones" is about the integrated development of the UAV sphere both in terms of production and in terms of their use." - Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov on TV marathon
10:43 pm: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a briefing Thursday in The Hague after meeting with the prime ministers of the Netherlands and Belgium that he believed in the success of the counteroffensive.
· "We believe in the success of the counteroffensive. We are doing our best - not only the military, our society, our factories, entrepreneurs are thinking how to strengthen our army.
· We prepare ourselves and do not think that we will not succeed. I am sure that we will achieve the result. I can't say that 100% success is guaranteed because no one knows. I don't know if it says the right thing about success if you lose people. In any case, we will go forward," the president said.
10:18 pm: Ukraine communicates almost daily with Russia about the return of Ukrainian civilians from Russian captivity, said Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets.
· "Under the Geneva Convention, only exchanges of military personnel take place, but there is no mechanism for the exchange of civilians who are also in Russian captivity. But there is some communication with the Russian side on this issue," he said.
9:31 pm British Ministry of Defence: Russians continue to advance on three directions in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian Armed Forces troops repel enemy attacks.
· According to British intelligence, local fighting continues in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
7:12 pm British intelligence: Fuel depots in occupied Ukraine and in border areas of Russia remain particularly vulnerable to attack.
· According to the report, on May 3, a fire broke out at a Russian fuel and lubricants depot in the village of Volna on the Russian mainland in the Kerch Strait, near the Crimean bridge. It could have been caused by a drone strike, consistent with a pattern of damage to Russian fuel depots since the beginning of the year.
6:42 pm General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Today, the enemy inflicted 6 missile strikes on the cities of Kramatorsk and Zaporizhzhia, inflicted 66 air strikes and carried out 33 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on the positions of Ukrainian troops and settlements.
· In the Liman, Bakhmut and Mariinsky directions, about 50 enemy attacks were repulsed. The fiercest fighting continues for Bakhmut and Marinka.
· The enemy continues to equip civilian educational institutions for medical institutions - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· In the temporarily occupied settlement of Myrne, Zaporizhzhia region, Russians are equipping a gym for a local school as a military hospital.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 6 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel. In addition, during this day, 4 Lancet barrage ammunition was destroyed, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· Missile troops and artillery units hit 5 areas of concentration of manpower, 2 enemy ammunition depots and 1 of its electronic warfare station.
5:56 pm: The National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption has decided to add Hungary's OTP Bank to the list of international sponsors of the war, - NACP statement.
· It is noted that this decision was made due to the position of the bank's management to continue operations in Russia and the actual recognition of the so-called "L/DPR".
5:43 pm Operational Command South: Currently, 2 Russian surface missiles remain on alert in the Black Sea.
· "16 high-precision missiles can be used against Ukraine," Humeniuk said.
5:00 pm: Ukraine Aid 2022-2023 in its first year of operations shipped $517,000 in aid material from the US to Ukraine. The principal beneficiaries were a volunteer battalion of 200 men and women serving in Donetsk, Kurakhiv Hospital in Donetsk, Military Hospital No.65 in Kharkhiv, Kyiv Municipal Hospital, and schools and local governments in Eastern Ukraine. For more information visit UkraineAid.grop.
4:02 pm:The star of the series "Vikings", actress and producer Katherine Vynnyk, who became an ambassador of UNITED24 in March, arrived in Kyiv.
· "Together with her, our special guest, actress Ivanna Sakhno, who plays a role in the series "Star Wars: Ahsoka", - reports United24.
12:07 pm SBU press service: Security Service seizes "hidden" assets of sanctioned oligarch Vadym Novynskyi for more than UAH 10.5 billion
· "Among the seized property are an elite hotel complex in the center of Kyiv, the Ochakov sea commercial port, the premises of an agricultural holding and shopping centers in different regions of Ukraine.
· It was established that in order to avoid sanctions by the National Security and Defense Council, Novynskyi re-registered his own assets to several controlled foreign citizens in offshore jurisdictions," the statement reads.
Mordor - russia
Friday May 5
11:00 am: Prigozhin announced that on May 10, PMC Wagner leaves Bakhmut due to lack of ammunition and transfers positions to units of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
9:46 am Institute for the Study of War: Russia uses 'drone strike' on Kremlin to increase cancellation of May 9 Victory Day parades.
· Analysts cite three reasons why the cancellation of parades is beneficial to the Kremlin:
o Show that normal life in war conditions cannot continue;
o "Hide the degradation of the Russian army." New military equipment is demonstrated at the parades, but it is either needed at the front or destroyed during 14 months of fighting;
o Ceremonies of remembrance of fallen servicemen can draw attention to heavy losses. For this reason, the procession of the "immortal regiment" has already been canceled.
9:15 am: Explosion again on the territory of the Ilsky refinery - Russian media.
· According to preliminary data, a few minutes ago the plant was attacked by a Ukrainian drone. He flew to one of the installations and a fire started. Now emergency services are going to the place.
· In the network there were footage of a fire on the territory of the Ilsky refinery.
8:35 am: PMC Wagner founder Prigozhin showed mountains of corpses of Wagnerites, openly blamed Shoigu and Gerasimov for their deaths, and launched his campaign for the presidency of Russia.
· "You sit, creatures, in expensive clubs. Your children are struggling with life, shooting videos on YouTube. You think that you are the masters of this life. Think that if you have shell warehouses, then you have the right to do so. There are elementary calculations – if you give the rate of ammunition, there are five times less deaths. They came here as volunteers and are dying for you to chew in your offices with mahogany," Prigozhin said.
12:05 am: As a result of yesterday's UAV attack on an airfield in the Bryansk region, one AN-124-100 was completely destroyed, another of the same aircraft received fragmentation holes in the fuselage - the Legion "Freedom of Russia"
· The cost of one is estimated at almost $70 million. In the VKS of the Russian Federation, according to various sources, there were no more than 12 such aircraft in working condition. Their production or repair by Russia's own forces is impossible.
Thursday May 4
07:36 pm: Around 19:00hrs, air defense forces destroyed a UAV near Belbek airfield, in temporarily occupied Sevastopol.
· This was stated by the so-called "governor" of Sevastopol.
6:27 pm: New interception of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
· The wife of a Russian soldier tells about various cases with injuries in the war and situations in which soldiers with missing limbs are refused to be commissioned and returned from the hospital to serve in units.
1:11 pm: In the Russian city of Stavropol, near the Eurobeton plant, a fuel and lubricant warehouse caught fire, media reports say.
KHARKIV
Friday May 5
11:35am Kharkiv RMA: Over the past day, Krasnaya Zorya, Hlyboke, Liptsy, Vesele, Ohirtseve, Vovchansky Khutory, Veterinary, Novomlynsk, Kamyanka, Dvorichna, Olkhuvatka, Zapadne were under Russian fire, Estuary First, Izyum and other settlements.
· The shelling damaged private residential buildings, outbuildings, fires occurred. There were no civilian casualties.
DONETSK
Thursday May 4
8:17 pm SBU press service: According to SBU materials, an informant who "directed" Russian shelling at the positions of the Defense Forces in Bakhmut received a prison term.
· It was established that the enemy was primarily interested in information about the combat positions of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut.
· In addition, the offender "leaked" the coordinates of checkpoints and critical infrastructure in the region to the Russian invaders.
1:46 pm Donetsk RMA: At night, the Russians launched artillery and aircraft strikes on the Donetsk region.
· The infrastructure in Kramatorsk, Avdiivka, Volnovakha, Horlivka and Lysychansk directions was damaged.
· "In just one day, Russians killed 2 residents of Donetsk region, wounded 9 more," Kyrylenko wrote.
ZAPORIZHIA
Friday May 5
10:10 am Zaporizhia RMA: The frontline territories of Zaporizhia region were hit by 92 attacks on 18 settlements: 3 aircraft, 3 UAVs, 2 MLRS and 84 artillery
· Novodanylivka was hit by aircraft and artillery, Huliaipole by UAVs and artillery, Stepnohirsk by MLRS.
· So far, two dozen destructions of civilian objects have been recorded: cars, apartments, private houses. People survived.
Thursday May 4
2:07 pm Zaporizhia RMA: Russians launched 112 strikes on 20 settlements in Zaporizhzhia region: one missile strike, 3 air strikes, 5 UAV attacks, one MLRS attack and 101 artillery shelling.
· "I hit civilian infrastructure: residential buildings, life support facilities, social institutions. A man born in 1951 is in hospital," Malashko wrote.
DNIPRO
Friday May 5
9:55 am Social Networks: Explosions heard in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region.
8:01 am Dnipro RMA: This night, Russians sent 2 drones to Dnipropetrovsk region, they were shot down.
· Nikopol was again under Russian artillery fire. The shelling in the city damaged 10 private houses, fences and an outbuilding. A power line and 2 gas pipelines were damaged.
1:18 am Social Networks: Explosions heard in Dnipro, followers report. Pre-working air defense.
KHERSON
Friday May 5
10:29 am Social Networks: Explosions heard again in Beryslav district of Kherson region,
9:58 am: Explosions are heard in the Beryslav district of Kherson region.
7:09 am Social Networks: Kherson has been heavily shelled for hours at night.s
Thursday May 4
9:39 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
4:35 pm Kherson RMA: Russian warplanes dropped guided bombs on Kizomis and the territory of the Beryslav district.
· "Aerial bombs hit near the district hospital. The Russian military hit Beryslav with aircraft. Two people were injured," Tolokonnikov said.
MYKOLAIV
Thursday May 4
5:26 pm SBU press service: The Security Service detained a Russian "mole" who spied on combat aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Mykolaiv region.
· "According to the investigation, he remotely passed the received information to the occupiers through his ex-wife, who lives in Crimea.
· Based on the collected evidence, investigators of the Security Service informed the detainee of suspicion. The investigation is currently underway to establish all the circumstances of the crime," the statement said.
ODESA
Thursday May 4
4:55 p.m.: Odesa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov has been taken into custody in the case of Odesa's Krayan plant.
· This was reported by the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office.
· Odesa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov was taken into custody with the right to make a bail of UAH 13 million
· The SAPO reports that the mayor of Odesa did not pay almost 31 million hryvnias of bail, determined by the court in the case earlier, so the prosecutor asked to change his measure of restraint from bail to detention for a period of 60 days with the possibility of bail.
KYIV
Friday May 5
11:23 am: The Ministry of Internal Affairs showed the consequences of yesterday's downing of a UAV over Kyiv
· In the Solomensky district, a fire broke out in a 4-storey building. In the Pechersk district there was a fire in one of the parks. The fires were quickly extinguished. There were no casualties.
Thursday May 4
11:00 pm: The Command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that on May 4 at about 20 hours in the Kyiv region, during a scheduled flight, lost control of the Bayraktar TB2 UAV.
· Since the uncontrolled presence of the UAV in the sky of the capital could lead to undesirable consequences, it was decided to use the calculations of mobile fire groups. Bayraktar was destroyed.
· Presumably we are talking about a technical malfunction, the reasons are being established. As a result of combat work and falling wreckage of the UAV, there were no casualties.
9:46 pm: In the Solomensky district, rescuers eliminated a fire on the ground floor of a 4-storey shopping center building that occurred on an area of 50 square meters, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
· As a result of the destruction of the wreckage of the aircraft by the blast wave, decorative external elements of the building and glass on an area of up to 150 square meters were destroyed.
9:09 pm: Fire in a small area in the Pechersk district. As a result of falling UAV wreckage. The buildings are intact. There were no casualties, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
· The mayor also said that the fire in the 4-storey building in the Solomensky district of the capital was localized. As a result of falling wreckage of the UAV, the structures of the building on an area of 150 square meters were destroyed.
9:06 pm: A video of a Russian UAV shooting down over Kyiv has appeared online.
8:52 pm: In the Solomyanskyi district, rescuers localize a fire in a 4-storey building. Ignition area - 50 square meters. Nobody has yet sought help from doctors, - Vitali Klitschko.
8:42 pm: Explosions and fire in the Solomensky district of the capital. Probable hit of UAV wreckage. All services are heading to the place, - Mayor Vitali Klitschko.
8:41 pm: During the last air raid alarm over Kyiv, a drone was shot down, - CMVA.
8:19 pm: Air defense went off in Kyiv, according to the CMVA.
8:14 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kyiv, followers report. Pre-working air defense. We are waiting for official information.
2:57 pm Kyiv RMA: Residents of Kyiv and the region can hear planned explosions today.
· "In the afternoon of May 4, in one of the communities of the Bucha district, work will be carried out to destroy explosive objects," the message says.
SUMY
Friday May 5
10:50 am Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, the Russians carried out 6 shelling of the border area. 43 explosions were recorded.
· Settlements of the Esman, Seredyno-Budska, Bilopilska communities were shelled. Preliminarily – without consequences.
9:44 am Social Networks: Explosions heard again in Sumy region
8:26 am Social Networks: Explosions heard in Sumy region.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka