Ukraine – 5/4/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
May 4, 2023
The Zelenskyy Roadshow
Yesterday, Pres. Zelenskyy was in Helsinki meeting with Nordic leaders. Today, he’s in the Netherlands. He is planning to make a visit to Germany on May 13th. This is likely the most concentrated itinerary of foreign travel for Zelanskyy since the start the start of the war.
What does this say, if anything, about the start of Ukraine’s much anticipated counterattack? One would reasonably assume that the Commander in Chief would be present in his command center in Kyiv for the start of such a major event for Ukraine, instead of in Berlin, or other capitals.
Perhaps Zelenskyy’s current and planned absences from Kyiv, at a time when all the pundits think the counteroffensive is imminent, is an indication that Ukraine’s counterattack has already started, or perhaps we won’t see one massive counterattack that is directed at, possibly, Melitopol. Ukraine is now in the position of choosing where, and when, to attack.
For several weeks prior to June 6th, 1944, D-Day, when the Allies landed on the northern coast of France, beginning the final phase of the eventual defeat of Germany, American and British air forces were bombing German military targets all the way back into Germany. Targets included rail lines, bridges, roads, ammunition dumps, troop concentrations, and German convoys that were caught out in the open. The objective was to destroy German logistics, preventing Germany from re-supplying their forces that were arrayed along the Normandy beaches, known as “The Atlantic Wall.” Sound familiar?
Today, it seems like Ukraine is doing the same thing to the Russians, that the Allies did to the Germans in the weeks prior to D-Day. Does this mean that the Ukrainian counterattack has already started? Likely yes.
I am also not convinced that Ukraine is planning one massive attack. Last year, Ukraine conducted 2 simultaneous offensives, in Kherson and in the Kharkiv Region. We may well see the same thing this year. Ukraine is now receiving a continual flow of equipment and consumables from their Western partners, especially ammunition, likely enough to give Ukraine multiple options.
If we’ve learned one thing about Ukraine since the start of the war, it is never a good idea to underestimate Ukraine. Among some of the pundits, the tendency to underestimate Ukraine might be happening again.
Yesterday, Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia group send out his latest analysis on Ukraine, discussing his analysis of Ukraine’s prospective counteroffensive. It seems that there is a tendency among the mainstream pundits, of which Bremmer is one, to gravitate toward the mean which, in this case, analyzing the prospects of Ukraine’s counterattack, is a prediction of recovered territory but stalling out short of objectives. At the start of the war, the “mean” was that Ukraine would surrender within 5 days.
When a pundit reaches the level of credibility that Ian Bremmer has, there may be an increased perceived risk of diverting from the pack, and thereby losing credibility if you’re wrong. Happily, we are not under similar pressure.
From the start, our default position has been based on the following 3 premises:
· Expect the unexpected from Ukraine.
· Never underestimate Ukraine and their capabilities
· Always keep in mind the power of Ukraine’s secret sauce – the role of civil society, not just in supporting Ukraine’s military but also their ability to undermine Russia.
Some very smart people who get these emails pooh-pooh the role of Ukrainian civil society, in what we believe will be Ukraine’s victory. They do so at their peril.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” describes what military experts call, shaping operations, like destroying Russian tank farms, blowing up rail lines, etc., much like what the Allies did in 1944. Ukraine will continue these operations for as long as they believe it is necessary. I doubt that Ukraine will be pressured from pundits and other to “get on with it.”
5/4/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon May 3 to 12:00 noon May 4, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Thursday May 4
10:58 am: Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in the Netherlands. He plans to appeal to the Dutch society and representatives of international judicial institutions located in The Hague.
09:54: Norway has allocated €378 million in aid to Ukraine. This was reported in the government of the country.
· €235 million will be spent on humanitarian needs and another €143 million will go to support the public sector and repair damaged infrastructure.
· Norway has pledged €1.2 billion annually over the next five years (€6.3 billion in total) from 2023 to 2027.
12:51 am: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the United States will not criticize strikes on Russian territory.
· Given that Ukrainian men, women and children are under attack every day, the United States reserves the right for Ukraine to decide how to defend itself and how to return territories.
· Blinken also said that the United States does not know who struck the Kremlin. And all the information coming from the Kremlin, he would "divide in two."
12:32: Canada donates demining equipment to Ukraine
· "Canada handed over to the SES the first batch of demining equipment with a total value of UAH 22.5 million. Canadian dollars (16.5 million US dollars)," the Canadian Embassy in Ukraine reported.
· The machinery will be used to clear agricultural land to restore food security.
Wednesday May 3
9:30 pm: The United States announced a new $300 million arms package for Ukraine, according to the Pentagon's press service. It includes:
· additional ammunition for artillery rocket systems (HIMARS);
· 155-mm howitzers;
· 155-mm artillery shells;
· 120-mm, 81-mm and 60-mm mortar shells;
· TOW missiles (tubular, optical-tracked, with conductive guidance);
· anti-tank weapons systems AT-4 and Carl Gustaf;
· Gidra-70 aircraft missiles;
· small arms and small arms ammunition;
· ammunition for clearing obstacles;
· trucks and trailers for the transport of heavy equipment;
· testing and diagnostic equipment for maintenance and repair of vehicles;
· spare parts and other field equipment.
8:13pm: The leaders of Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland and Sweden will support Ukraine further towards future NATO membership.
· This is stated in a joint statement by the leaders of the Nordic member countries of NATO after the summit in Helsinki.
· Nordic leaders also look forward to discussing Ukraine's security and membership at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023.
7:55 pm: The US has seen reports of an attack on the Kremlin but cannot verify them, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
· "I would take all the data coming from Russia with a lot of skepticism," Blinken said.
· He also added that the United States leaves to the discretion of Ukraine methods of protecting its territory.
4:56 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Speaker of the Finnish Parliament Petteri Orpo and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stere.
· "During the meeting with Petteri, Orpo thanked for the support of our country in these difficult times of struggle against Russian aggression. I thank the Finnish people for such a great, powerful support of our people and, of course, our military on the battlefield.
· With Jonas Gahr Stere, the main attention during the talks was paid to the situation at the front and the defense support that Ukraine receives from Norway," the president wrote.
4:12 pm: In Belgrade, Serbia, a teenager opened fire at a school. 8 schoolchildren and a security guard were killed, 6 children and a teacher were injured, according to B92 and Vecernje Novosti.
· According to their information, the student was under the influence of drugs. The teenager shot with a pistol, which he took from his father. Entering the school, the detainee killed the guard, and later shot the children who were in the corridor.
3:12 pm: Ukraine will receive aircraft after successful offensive actions, says Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
· "Why do I believe we will have planes? Because soon we will have offensive actions. And after them, I am sure, they will give us planes," the Ukrainian president said during a press conference with the President of Finland.
14:24: Volodymyr Zelenskyy will arrive in Germany on an official visit on May 13, - Tagesspiegel.
· The President of Ukraine will hold a series of meetings and attend the presentation of the Charlemagne Award.
1:56 pm: The European Commission has allocated 500 million euros to urgently strengthen the capacity of the EU industry, the press service of the European Commission said.
12:01 PM: President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Finland at the invitation of his colleague Sauli Niinistö, the Office of the President of Finland said.
· The talks between the presidents will concern Finland's defense struggle, bilateral relations between the two countries and the global geopolitical situation.
NATIONAL
Thursday May 4
10:40: Yuriy Ihnat told why Russia now uses drones so often
· According to him, in addition to the defeat of targets by the "Shaheds,” in this way they exhaust the air defense, force them to expose their positions. Because working with an anti-aircraft missile UAV shows where this combat work was conducted from.
· Also, the spokesman of the Air Force added that 80% of drones are now being destroyed.
8:13 am: 30% of schools in Ukraine do not have shelters, so a subvention of UAH 1.5 billion will be divided between them for their creation, - Minister of Education and Science Oksen Lisovyi.
8:12 am: As of May 1, 23,760 citizens are missing because of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This was stated by Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Leonid Timchenko.
7:33 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The Russians continue to focus their main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions - 40 attacks were repelled. The fiercest battles are fought for Bakhmut and Marinka.
· Compulsory passportization of Ukrainian citizens in Henichesk district of temporarily occupied Kherson region continues - General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· Russians constantly put pressure on locals, threaten with deportation and confiscation of property, restrict movement between settlements. There is an indicative prejudice against people with Ukrainian passports.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces over the past day inflicted 13 strikes on areas of concentration of personnel, as well as 4 strikes - on anti-aircraft missile systems of Russians, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· Over the past day, units of missile troops and artillery hit the area of concentration of Russian troops, a station of electronic warfare, 3 artillery units in firing positions, 3 ammunition and fuel and lubricant depots, as well as an anti-aircraft missile system.
7:23: At night, air defense destroyed 18 strike UAVs, - Ukrainian Air Force.
· Russians used up to 24 "Shahed-136/131" attack drones from the north (Bryansk region) and from the south – the east coast of the Sea of Azov.
12:10 am: The Verkhovna Rada has passed a bill conventionally named "anti-Pushkin" that simplifies the demolition of monuments associated with the Russian Empire and the USSR, Minister of Culture Tkachenko said.
· "If with the renaming of streets the process is easier, then with the demolition or transfer of monuments - legally regulated.
· Therefore, we in the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine have developed a bill that became known as "Anti-Pushkin". Today, deputies in the second reading by a majority adopted our draft law," Tkachenko said.
Wednesday May 3
7:18 pm: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the "night attack" on the Kremlin.
· "I can repeat this message, I think it will be clear to everyone: We are not attacking either Putin or Moscow," Zelensky said at a press conference.
· The President added that the Armed Forces of Ukraine lack weapons to protect their territories, so no one will use them "anywhere".
6:27 pm Update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on May 3:
· "This day, at night, the enemy launched another massive strike, using shock UAVs "Shahed-136/131". 21 out of 26 of these drones were destroyed by our defenders.
· In total, the enemy inflicted 2 missile and 41 air strikes, carried out about 25 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on the positions of our troops and settlements.
· Civilians were injured, private residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed and damaged."
· "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions.
· During the day, units of the defense forces of Ukraine repelled about 30 attacks in these areas. The fiercest battles are for Bakhmut and Marinka."
· In the area of Feodosia, in the temporarily occupied Crimea, explosions were heard, according to residents.
· "In order to somehow protect its personnel from the fire destruction of the defense forces of Ukraine, the enemy continues to cynically use the local population in the temporarily occupied territories.
· In the settlements of the Kakhovka district, the Russian invaders place their units among the private houses of local residents."
· "Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 3 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel.
· In addition, during this day, our defenders destroyed 5 reconnaissance UAVs of various types and one Lancet barrage ammunition.
· Missile troops and artillery units hit the area of concentration of manpower and the enemy's ammunition depot."
06:09 pm: The EU will provide Ukraine with ammunition worth 2 billion euros, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said.
· "The EU will already send ammunition from its warehouses worth 1 billion euros. The European Union allocates another EUR 1 billion for their joint further purchases for Ukraine," Shmyhal wrote.
17:35 Operational command "Yug": In Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, Ukrainian military destroyed 4 Russian UAVs.
· Were destroyed: 2 - shock UAV "Lancet", 1 - UAV "Merlin-BP" and 1 UAV of operational-tactical level.
4:40 pm: The Verkhovna Rada has expanded the list of grounds for demobilization from military service during martial law, Yaroslav Zhelezniak has said.
· According to the law, servicemen are entitled to discharge from service during martial law if their close relatives (husband, wife, son, daughter, father, mother, grandfather, grandmother or full brother or sister) died or went missing during measures to ensure national security and defense during Russian aggression.
3:58 pm: Ukraine has no information about so-called nightly attacks on the Kremlin, Ukrainian presidential spokesman Sergei Nikiforov said.
· He recalled that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had repeatedly stated that Ukraine was directing all available forces and means to "liberate its own territories, and not to attack foreign ones."
· "What happened in Moscow is obviously an escalation of the situation before May 9. Expected reception from our opponents," Nikiforov said.
Mordor - russia
Thursday May 4
11:52 am: Statements by the Russian FSB about the alleged detention of agents of special services of Ukraine on the territory of occupied Crimea are another hostile disinformation - Defence Intelligence of Ukraine
· According to the representative of the Defence Intelligence Andriy Yusov, fresh Kremlin fakes testify to an obvious fact that the Russian regime is afraid of Ukraine, our special services, in particular the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
10:09 am: The Ilsk oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai was attacked by four drones overnight. The fire occurred due to their fall, one UAV did not explode, Russian media reported, citing a source in law enforcement agencies.
· It is reported that the attack lasted almost an hour, three explosions occurred on the territory of the plant. One tank was destroyed and a second one caught fire, 85% filled with diesel fuel. The volume of the affected tanks is 5000 cubic meters. Metres.
8:39 am Institute for the Study of War: Russia most likely organized the "attack" of drones on the Kremlin itself in order to convey information about the war to domestic audiences and create conditions for wider mobilization.
· Analysts note that the air defense system around Moscow is powerful enough that such attacks could not be carried out on the Senate Palace. Also, suspicion is caused by shooting the incident from very convenient angles, which indicates its preliminary preparation.
8:13 am: a tank of an oil refinery caught fire in the Russian village - Russian media.
· It is reported that, according to emergency services, the cause of the fire was an attack by an unknown drone.
7:54 am: An oil refinery in the Krasnodar region of the Russian Federation was attacked by a drone tonight. The fire at the plant was extinguished in the morning, - Russian media.
· Also, the drone attack was reported by the governor of the Rostov region of the Russian Federation Vasily Golubev. According to him, the target was the Novoshakhtynsky plant of petroleum products.
Wednesday May 3
11:00 pm: Russians continue to carry out attacks in eastern Ukraine, the fiercest fighting continues for Bakhmut and Marinka.
· This is evidenced by the map of hostilities from the British Ministry of Defense.
22:45: New interception of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine
· A woman soldier of the Russian Armed Forces talks about the recruitment of their mutual acquaintance in PMC "Wagner" and his subsequent death.
22:16: A kamikaze drone attacked a water tower in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, Baza.
· "A few hours ago, a drone crashed into a tower located a kilometer from one of the villages on the territory of a local pig farm," the report said.
13:00: A court in Belarus sentenced the ex-head of the Nexta Telegram channel, Roman Protasevich, to 8 years in prison, the Belarusian state news agency BelTA reports.
· He was accused of conspiracy to seize power. Also, two more defendants, Jan Rudyk and Stepan Putilo, were sentenced to 19 and 20 years in prison, respectively. They are outside Belarus. Only Protasevich attended the meeting.
KHARKIV
Thursday May 4
11:34 Kharkiv Regional Administration: Last day, border and frontline settlements of Kharkiv, Chuhuiv, Izyum and Kupiansk districts were under Russian fire. No one was injured,
· Yesterday, near the village of Pogonovka, a tractor blew up on an unknown explosive object. The 58-year-old driver is hospitalized with multiple injuries.
Wednesday May 3
12:41 PM: The SBU detained a prosecutor in Kharkiv who demanded money from victims for the "correct" investigation of crimes.
· As a result of comprehensive measures, the prosecutor of one of the district prosecutor's offices of Kharkiv was detained. SBU officers documented that the official demanded 35 thousand rubles. USD from the victim in a commercial real estate fraud case.
· For this amount, the prosecutor promised the man to give an "impetus" to the investigation of the relevant proceedings, as well as to seize property and conduct a number of examinations.
DONETSK
Thursday May 4
11:42 am: An explosion was heard in temporarily occupied Mariupol, according to Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.
3:07 a.m. Social networks: Explosions heard in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, Donetsk region.
Wednesday May 3
23:51 Vostok Operational Command: Ukrainian military destroyed 36 Russian soldiers and an enemy T-72 tank near Lyman (Donetsk region) and near Kupiansk (Kharkiv region).
16:16 Social networks: Explosions in the temporarily occupied Mospino, Donetsk region.
ZAPORIZHIA
Thursday May 4
11:13 am: Private houses damaged as result of overnight Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, - City Council Secretary Anatoly Kurtev.
· The blast wave knocked out windows and mutilated the roofs. There were no casualties among people. All relevant services are working on site.
2:17 a.m. Social networks: Explosions heard again in Zaporizhzhia
2:04 a.m. Social work: Explosion heard in Zaporizhzhia.
Wednesday May 3
11:35 pm: The Russian military placed military equipment and explosives in the turbine compartment of the fourth power unit of the ZNPP.
· This was reported by the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine.
· It is noted that this became known during the weekly meeting on communication between the IAEA Crisis Center (IEC) and the SNRIU on the activities of the IAEA mission at the Zaporizhzhia NPP site, which took place on May 2, 2023.
DNIPRO
Thursday May 4
10:26 Dneprovskaya ROV: Outside the Russian army attacked Nikopol with artillery and drones. A 32-year-old man was injured. He is in likarna,
· 11 private houses and 9 outbuildings were damaged in the town. And also - a gas pipeline and a power line. There is destruction at one of the industrial enterprises. There was a fire, which rescuers have already extinguished.
Wednesday May 3
21:59 Dneprovskaya OVA: Russians shelled Nikopol twice with artillery.
· "The injured 86-year-old woman will be treated on an outpatient basis. 13 private houses were damaged.
· One of them caught fire, rescuers extinguished the fire. Two outbuildings were completely destroyed, 9 were mutilated," Lysak wrote.
KHERSON
Thursday May 4
11:43 Social networks: Explosions are heard in the Beryslav district of Kherson region.
11:02 Kherson OVA: Explosions are heard in the Bilozerska community of Kherson region.
9:07 a.m. Kherson OVA: The death toll from the Russian attack on Kherson and the region has risen to 23. Another 46 people were injured, including two children.
· Over the past day, the Russians carried out 98 attacks on the region. Kherson was shelled 16 times. They hit the Railway Station Square, the territory and buildings of the railway station, a gas station, two trade establishments, a plant and a car facility, the territory of a railway crossing.
Wednesday May 3
11:04 pm: First Deputy Head of Kherson Regional Council Sobolevsky said shelling of Kherson continued. Explosions are heard in the city.
22:28 Social networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
21:46: Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacted to Russian shelling of the Kherson region.
· "As of now, there are 21 dead people! 48 wounded! All civilians! In one part-time! In one area! My condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims.
· We will never forgive those responsible. We will defeat the evil country and make all the perpetrators answer," the president wrote.
19:35 Kherson Regional Administration: As a result of Russian strikes on Kherson region, 1 more person was killed, 4 civilians were injured.
· "Stay in shelters. If you are at home, then do not go out at least until the morning, do not put yourself in danger," Prokudin wrote.
5:50 pm: 16 civilians killed in massive Russian attack in Kherson region, according to Kherson regional prosecutor's office.
· "About 22 civilians received injuries of varying severity", – stated in the message.
16:36 Social networks: explosions heard in Kherson.
3:43 pm: The Ministry of Health reported that due to the shelling by the Russian army of Kherson, one person was killed and 6 others were injured.
2:07 pm: Russians shelling Kherson, Kherson MBA head Roman Mrochko said.
· He also urged residents to stay at home or in shelters. This is especially true for the center and area of the station. According to him, there are already victims.
17:12: The State Service for Emergency Situations published a photo of the consequences of Russian attacks on Kherson.
· "Rescuers are working in enhanced mode, trying to save everyone and promptly eliminate the consequences of this terror", – stated in the message.
ODESA
Thursday May 4
07:01 Operational command "Yug": Russians attacked Odessa with 15 drones, of which 12 destroyed Ukrainian defenders
· Three enemy UAVs hit the dormitories of one of the city's educational institutions. The fire was extinguished, no one was injured.
3:28 a.m. Social networks: Explosions heard again in Odesa. Previously, the work of air defense.
2:47 a.m. Social networks: explosions heard in Odesa
KYIV
Thursday May 4
8:29 am: As a result of the downing of air objects in the Shevchenkivskyi, Pecherskyi and Podilskyi districts of Kyiv, about ten pieces of debris fell on different streets, - Serhiy Popko, head of the CMVA
· As a result of falling debris, parked cars were partially damaged (the number is to be confirmed) and the road surface. There is no information on injured citizens.
7:16 am: All Russian drones and missiles flying at the Kyiv have been successfully shot down, according to the Kyiv City Military Administration.
· It is noted that this was the third air attack on the capital in the last four days.
· "The Russians attacked the Kyiv using Shahed-type barrage munitions and missiles, probably ballistic type," the CMVA said.
2:57 am: Explosions are heard in Kyiv region, followers report. Kyiv regional administration reports on the work of air defense.
2:35 a.m. Social networks: explosions heard in Kyiv
CHERNIHIV
Thursday May 4
09:37 am Chernigovskaya RMA: 17 explosions during the day near and in settlements of Novgorod-Siversky and Koriukivskyi districts. A woman born in 1941 died.
· Around 23:20hrs, as a result of an air strike in the village of Ivanivka, a residential building and an outbuilding caught fire, and another house was damaged. Information on the victims is being clarified.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka