Bob Homans May 30
20220530
Ukraine – 5/30 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
May 30, 2022
Karina Lipsman, Candidate for Congress from Virginia’s 8th Congressional District
If elected, Karina Lipsman, a Republican, will become the second Member of the U.S. Congress born in Ukraine. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Indiana), elected in 2021, was the first. Here is Ms. Lipsman’s position on foreign and national security policy. Subject to the Democratic Primary on June 21st, she will likely face Don Beyer, who has represented the 8th District of Virginia since 2015. The 8th District includes all of Arlington County, the Cities of Falls Church and Alexandria, and parts of Fairfax County, directly across the Potomac River from Washington, DC.
5/30 Sitrep
It's always easier to think about the known than the unknown. For example, at the start of the war experts did not give Ukraine a chance against the vast superiority and quantity of Russian weapons. The 40 km convoy of stalled superior weapons at the start of the invasion should have brought an end to this kind of thinking. For a short period of time, it did.
We are unfortunately back to the same mode of reasoning as we draw closer to a hundred days of war. The Russians want Ukraine’s allies to stop supplying weapons, in exchange for releasing Ukraine grain to countries facing food shortages and starvation. The Russians really believe that they are losing because Ukraine is getting large numbers of superior weapons.
Some of Ukraine’s allies are dithering about supplying Ukraine with more, let's say lots, of superior weapons because then Russia will lose and then who knows. Will the allies remain in charge of events or will they become subject to unexpected consequences such as an atomic strike, never ever again getting Russian gas, or possibly not being able to watch the Bolshoi Ballet again?
When participants and non-participants think of this war they see it as a big weapons game. Ukraine’s military and political leadership are also starting to fall into this trap. Give us weapons and we can do it, we can beat the Russians, we can control our destiny and be heroes.
Weapons play a role, but not the deciding one. The deciding role is played by people and what they believe in. The war started because Putin believes that Ukraine and Ukrainians must be exterminated to return Russia’s imperial glory. Ukrainians fought back and are winning the war because they want to live freely and are against their own extermination. So, it's Putin and his believers against Ukraine and Ukrainians.
Putin sends conscripts to exterminate Ukraine and Ukrainian pensioners feed the conscripts poisoned sweet rolls. Conscripts eat the poisoned sweet rolls because Putin does not feed his conscripts. It’s ten dead Russians vs one live Ukrainian grandmother with no weapons.
Experts understand more about T-72s and M-777s than they do about people. Expect that kind of understanding from experts, but don’t expect understanding war, why it happens, and why people are more important than weapons.
INTERNATIONAL
NATO Deputy Secretary-General: NATO is no longer bound to hold back from deploying its forces in eastern Europe.
Demonstrations in Support of Ukraine yesterday in 18 EU capitals.
The head of the European diplomacy said that, on Monday afternoon, it is planned to agree on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, which includes an embargo on Russian oil.
● Reuters: Draft Final Statement of the EU Summit confirms that pipeline oil supplies from Russia will not fall under the European embargo.
The French Foreign Minister arrived in Kyiv today to meet with her Ukrainian counterpart and the President.
Czech Minister of Defense: The Czech Republic plans to supply Ukraine with additional weapons worth up to 28 million euros. The Czech government has already transferred to Ukraine military equipment worth more than 140 million euros
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom assured that his country “stands side by side with its Ukrainian friends” and supports Ukraine in the fight against Russia. German Chancellor said that Russia must lose the war. Said during the second international charity telethon Save Ukraine, which took place simultaneously in the capitals of London and Berlin.
Russian Foreign Minister said that the capture of Donetsk and Luhansk regions' is an absolute priority of the war in Ukraine, and the inhabitants of the rest of the occupied Ukrainian territories will have to "decide their future" on their own.
CNN: Poland President said that he plans to increase defense spending because many Poles are “afraid of a Russian attack”; he hopes to increase his country's troop numbers in the coming years.
● Poland is ready to become a guarantor of Ukraine’s security. "We believe that as neighbours we are simply obliged. Therefore, if Ukraine asks us to be a guarantor of security and a guarantor of peace when the war ends, and if such the terms of the peace treaty will be accepted – yes, Poland will participate in this.”
Twitter: Secretary of State - named Lukashenko as an accomplice of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. On this Day of Solidarity with Belarus, we are mindful of the suffering caused by the Lukashenka regime’s crackdown on human rights, disregard for international norms, and complicity in Russia’s war against Ukraine. We stand with Belarusian people today and every day.
German Economy Minister: The unity of the European Union regarding sanctions against Russia is slowly beginning to disintegrate.
Minister of Emergency Situations of Belarus: Belarusian emergency personnel will help the police and the army of the country. By the middle of June, they will receive service weapons. High-ranking European source: EU leaders will discuss the possibility of confiscating assets frozen under sanctions against Russia at the May 30-31 summit in Brussels.
Reuters: The EU failed to reach an agreement on an embargo on Russian oil. Negotiations continue today.
CNN, citing Maxar images: The Russian cargo ship 'Matros Pozynych', carrying Ukrainian grain made a second voyage to Syria.
Bloomberg: Russia could face default on foreign debt within 30 days if nearly $100m worth of Russian bond payments scheduled for May 27 don't reach investors.
● The Russian Ministry of Finance says that it has transferred money to the National Settlement Depository, allegedly allowing it to service external debt under sanctions. But investors haven't seen the money yet.
A Lithuanian artist Tomas Upskas created a collection of figurines of Russian soldiers and put them up for auction with a starting bid of 2,000 euros. All money will go to help Ukraine. The models illustrate how the Russian troops plundered Ukrainian houses, taking everything they could bear.
German Ambassador to Ukraine: Germany can provide Ukraine with 1 billion euros in grant assistance.
CNN Turk reports: Russians detained two Turkish fishing boats with 12 fishermen off the coast of Crimea. The publication claims that the boats were delivered to the outskirts of Sevastopol, and the "authorities" of the peninsula confiscated the fish and fined the fishermen $30,000. The journalists refuted the statements of the Russian Federation that the vessels were not registered: one was registered in the port of Gemlik, and the other in Sarieri.
Social Media: An inflatable figurine of a soldier calling for volunteers has been installed near a mobile recruitment center in St. Petersburg.
● Girls in Moscow held an anti-war action "We can't wash off the blood" near the building of the Russian Foreign Ministry. A similar action was held in Edmonton, Alberta.
Reuters: The Kremlin says that the presidents of Russia and Serbia have agreed on further gas supplies.
● Serbia is ready to sign a three-year gas supply contract with Russia, Serbian President; he sent a letter to Gazprom director Miller to discuss new gas volumes.
Polskie Radio: Poland will send to Ukraine 18 self-propelled howitzers AHS Krab - a 155-mm caliber weapon that fires at a distance of up to 40 km.
ERR: The head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament criticized the conversation of the German Chancellor and French President with Putin. It's unbelievable how the current leaders of France and Germany are inadvertently paving the way for new Russian violence.
BBC: Russian Ambassador to Britain - Russia does not have and did not have a goal to capture Kyiv. None of our leaders, neither the president nor anyone else, has ever said that we would like to capture Kyiv. I do not believe that capturing or occupying Kyiv is possible. It is a big city the ambassador said.
NATIONAL
Yesterday in occupied Melitopol, locals held a pro-Ukrainian rally.
UNHCR: The flow to enter Ukraine across the western border, 20 days in a row after May 9, exceeds the flow to the exit. The total daily net inflow to Ukraine these days is 142 thousand - this is a record number since the war began. According to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, 2.23 million people have entered Ukraine since 28 February.
Visa Inc. President: Visa is proud to announce financial and logistical support for the re-opening of the new Diia Business Consulting Center for SMEs in Bucha (Kyiv region), the town which has been destroyed during the Russian invasion. He also called on international businesses to ‘uplift everyone in Ukraine’ and support the restoration of the local enterprises in every possible way.
Ukrainian Military Intelligence: The Russian command is holding the families of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine hostage. In the western military district of Russia, the families of officers were forbidden to leave the country. If the Russian military refuses to perform combat tasks, the command threatens to relocate their wives and children to depressed areas of the Russian Far East.
During martial law, debts for utilities will not be cancelled in Ukraine, as this may lead to the shutdown of enterprises providing services.
Deputy head of the occupation administration of Kherson: The occupation authorities of the Kherson region admitted that Russia is exporting grain from the area. Last year’s harvest, which was stored in the region, is being exported to Russia.
British Defence Intelligence Russia has likely suffered devastating losses amongst its mid and junior ranking officers. Brigade and battalion commanders likely deploy forwards into harm's way because they are held to an uncompromising level of responsibility for their units' performance.
● The loss of a large proportion of the younger generation of professional officers will likely exacerbate its ongoing problems in modernising its approach to command and control. More immediately, battalion tactical groups (BTGs) which are being reconstituted in Ukraine from survivors of multiple units are likely to be less effective due to a lack of junior leaders.
● With multiple credible reports of localised mutinies amongst Russia's forces in Ukraine, a lack of experienced and credible platoon and company commanders is likely to result to a further decrease in morale and continued poor discipline.
A new division of "Azov" - Special Operations Forces AZOV Kharkiv was created. Yesterday, May 29, the soldiers were handed chevrons. "On the same principles and ideological basis as the legendary AZOV regiment, we form new divisions. Every day they become more numerous and professional" - Maksym Zhorin, the third commander of the «Azov» regiment.
Institute for the Study of War: Ukrainian forces conducted a successful and limited counterattack near the border of the Kherson-Mykolaiv region, forcing Russian forces onto the defensive.
● The Russian Army concentrated almost all of its forces on Sievierodonetsk.
● Russian troops are unlikely to be able to conduct multiple simultaneous operations and will likely further deprioritize advances southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman in favour of concentrating available forces on Severodonetsk in the coming days.
● Russian forces continued offensive operations to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) northeast of Bakhmut and appear unlikely to attempt to directly assault the town.
● The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northwestern Kherson region has forced Russian troops to take up defensive positions and will likely disrupt Russian efforts to effectively dig in and consolidate control of occupied areas along the Southern Axis.
The Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories calls on Ukrainians, who have been taken hostage by the Rashists, not to take Russian passports and, if it is possible, to leave the occupied territories. She stresses that all Ukrainian territories will be liberated anyway, but the Russian passport will bring more problems than benefits.
The Kalush Orchestra sold the "Eurovision 2022" crystal cup at a charity auction for $900,000. The funds will go to the PD-2 drone complex for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Also sold was the famous pink hat.
Not one teacher in the villages of Ozeriany, Sokolohorne and Novohrihorivka in the Kherson region wanted to work under Russian conditions. Despite numerous negotiations and exhortations by the occupiers of teachers to cooperate, promises of high salaries, education in Crimea, all 'proposals' rejected.
BBC: Prime Minister - The number of civilian deaths is ten times higher than the losses among the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "This proves that the Russian army and the Russian Federation are fighting against the civilian population of Ukraine, and not against our Armed Forces."
● Ukraine's budget deficit due to the war is $5 billion a month "According to various expert estimates, from 30% to 50% of the economy has been lost today, the forecast for a fall in GDP is 30-50%. On average, about 35% of the economy is not working today, respectively, the budget is being implemented from 50% to 75% of the planned budget peacetime"
The National Security and Defense Council and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine call on journalists and bloggers not to help the Russians to spread fakes and not to publish materials from "personal sources" about events at the front. Departments are asked to verify information through official sources, not to refer to private individuals and to refrain from public assessments of hostilities, logistics, and the like.
President's Office: As soon as it became known that Ukraine would receive MLRS with a normal range (100+ km), the Russians immediately fell into hysteria. A wild scream now stands over the entire Russian swamp: "Not just that! Just don't give them jet long-range systems! Just not a weapon of retaliation!"
● Zelenskii visited Kharkiv today. "2229 destroyed houses in Kharkiv and in the region. We will restore everything, rebuild it, fill it with life. In Kharkiv and in all other cities and villages where evil has come."
● Zelenskyi dismissed the head of the Security Service Department in the Kharkiv Region for not working for the city protection from the first days of the full-scale war. He thought only about himself," - said the Ukrainian president.
● To date, the Russians have temporarily occupied 31% of the territory of the Kharkiv region. Already 5% of the region has been liberated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● There was a strike in the area of Chornobaivka for the 22nd time. The Russian ammunition depot was hit. The detonation lasted at least an hour.
Ombudsman: In occupied Henichesk, Russian soldiers broke into several private recreation centers, forbidding local guards to let people in, threatening that in the near future these territories will become Russian property.
● Over the past week, the Russians have forcibly deported almost 3,000 Ukrainians, including more than 300 children, to the Bezymyanne filtration camp. After the filtering measures, Russian soldiers form groups from Mariupol residents, who are first deported to Taganrog and then to the depressed regions of Russia.
● Conscripts from occupied Donbas had shootouts with Russian soldiers. Mass riots are brewing in Luhansk and Donetsk. According to the Ombudsman, the mobilized en masse refuse to become "cannon fodder" and, together with their wives, are preparing protests against the local so-called "authorities". In addition, over the past two weeks, thousands of people have laid down their arms in the ranks of the "army" of ORDLO.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: In the Sloviansk theater, the Russians, with the support of artillery, carried out assault actions in the direction of Pasika - Bohorodychne, but failed and retreated to previously occupied positions.
● In the Lyman theater, separate units of the Russian troops have been withdrawn outside the settlement of Lyman.
● The Russians are trying to gain a foothold in the northeastern outskirts of the city of Severodonetsk, they were conducting assault operations in the direction of the city center.
● Yesterday 16:40 Fierce battles were taking place near Severodonetsk.
● At 08:00 today Russian troops are fixed on the north-eastern and south-eastern neighbourhoods of Sievierodonetsk.
● In the Bakhmut theater, the enemy was preparing for assault operations, carried out shelling using mortars, cannon artillery, multiple launch rocket systems in the areas of the settlements of Kamyshevakha, Dolomitne and New York.
● In the Mykolaiv theater, the Russian troops are moving reserves to restore lost positions in the areas of the settlements of Andriivka, Bilohorka and Bila Krynytsia.
● In the Siversky theater, the Russian enemy launched airstrikes on the objects in the Sumy region, in the areas of the settlements of Zapsillia and Myropillia; and artillery shelling near Kindrativka.
● In the Kharkiv theater, the Russian enemy fired on the areas north and northeast of the city, also the settlements of Ruski Tyshky, Cherkasy Tyshky, Ruska Lozova, Pytomnyk, Borshchova and Peremoha.
● Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions. They destroyed two artillery systems, 11 units of armoured combat vehicles and 10 Russian automobiles. Air defense units shot down two cruise missiles and three Cube-type UAVs.
CNN: Ukraine's Defense Ministry - Putin encourages the genocide of Ukrainians. This is indicated by the fact that the President of the Russian Federation has given the 64th Russian Motorized Rifle Brigade, which committed atrocities in Bucha, the honorary title of Guards. This brigade killed the civilian population of the suburbs of Kiev. Many victims have been raped by the Russian military.
● Ukrainian authorities have concluded all possible agreements for the delivery of weapons, but it takes time.
Ukrainian Defense Minister: Ukraine will put burned Russian equipment on display in Europe. Russian propagandists dreamed that their tanks would sail to the Atlantic Ocean. Let's help with logistics: this scrap metal will be exhibited in Seville, Lisbon, Bordeaux, he said.
Strategic Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: Yesterday Ukrainian forces liquidated the commander of the Russian parachute landing company of the 106th parachute division.
State Security Service: Contract soldiers in the Russian army are waiting for the end of May to flee Ukraine faster. At the end of this month, the 90-day deadline set by Russian law for a "special operation" expires. Therefore, those who entered Ukraine in February can legally leave the service. This is based on intercepted telephone conversations of Russian soldiers with their families.
● A new telephone conversation between the Russian military, which was intercepted by the Security Service of Ukraine: Russian soldiers are ready to kill their generals, who force them to go on the offensive.
Minister of Social Policy: In Ukraine, from May 2022, some payments to internally displaced persons will be canceled. Only those displaced persons from the war zone and cannot return home will receive financial assistance. Also, according to her, payments will continue to be received by those Ukrainians whose homes are damaged or destroyed.
Adviser to the Interior Minister: Russia has lost more than 30% of its modern tanks in three months of full-scale war against Ukraine. He noted that the serious losses of the Russian Federation in tanks are confirmed by the Russians' bringing to the front old Soviet models. According to the General Staff of the AFU, Russian troops have already lost 1,330 units of tanks.
● The Kremlin asked the West not to supply weapons to Ukraine in exchange for unblocking ports. The Russians offered the following model: The West does not give us missiles, they go to the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, then sit down for talks, unblock ports for grain exports and offer new conditions for energy.
KHARKIV
Kharkiv Mayor confirms on air that the city had been shelled yesterday. He does not provide any details.
Regional Military Administration: The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the Beryslav direction and advanced 9 kilometres. Russians retreat to unfavourable positions for them. Russians are just running away, so it’s vital to continue this offensive. They panic, they are desperate and run away.
● It’s still dangerous to be on the streets,” said head of the Kharkiv RMA. On May 29, the Russians shelled Kharkiv, Chuguev, Zolochev and Dergachi.
LUHANSK
Regional Military Administration: ⚡️ Russians entered the outskirts of Sievierodonetsk, two civilians were killed, and five were wounded. It concerns the north-eastern and south-eastern outskirts of the city. There are severe battles for Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.
● At 09:40
○ Russians are advancing into the middle of Sievierodonetsk, fighting continues, and the situation is tough;
○ Russians shot a car with two volunteers, they are wounded, but now are in a safe place;
○ Three doctors disappeared, and the front of their car was torn; we have no connection with them;
○ the critical infrastructure of Sievierodonetsk has been destroyed, and 60% of the housing stock cannot be rebuilt;
● Lysychansk-Bakhmut road is dangerous to use, for evacuation and transportation of humanitarian goods there are safer options.
DONETSK:
Regional Military Administration: Following a mine explosion yesterday morning 115 miners in Toretsk remain underground.
● Yesterday, Russians killed three civilians in the Donetsk region: two in Avdiivka and one in Soledar. Four more people were injured
● The Bakhmut-Lysichansk highway is controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but is under fire from the Russian Federation.
● The most difficult situation is in Avdeevka, Toretsk, Liman direction, Bakhmut and Soledar.
Adviser to the mayor of Mariupol: Russians continue to steal Ukrainian steel rolls/rolled metal at the Mariupol trading port. Yesterday, with the support and accompaniment of the Russian military, a Russian cargo ship type "river-sea" PM3 class "Slavutich" under the Russian flag entered the port of Rostov-on-Don loaded with Ukrainian steel.
National Police: Russians hit the Donetsk region with missiles,"Hurricanes", tanks and heavy artillery - there are dead and wounded. During the day, Russian soldiers fired on 8 settlements. Destroyed 25 civilian facilities - residential buildings and a coke plant.
Kramatorsk Mayor: A high-voltage power line was cut off as a result of the fighting. Kramatorsk and all neighboring cities were left without electricity. Repairs are complicated by active fighting in the area of damage to the line.
● Repair work has already begun. Due to the power outage, the water supply from Filter Stations 1 and 2 of the Second Donetsk Water Supply - Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Druzhkivka, Konstantynivka, Toretsk and nearby settlements are without water.
● Yesterday 16:00 in some areas of Kramatorsk power supply resumed, emergency crews continue to work.
ZAPORIZHIA
Regional Military Administration: Military SSO AZOV and AFU artillery liquidated Russian positions in the Zaporizhzhia region, by destroying Russian equipment hidden in a farm hangar.
● According to local media in Melitopol, there was a powerful explosion in the city centre at 08:00. The explosion shattered windows in nearby houses. Several people were injured. It is reported that the niece of the so-called "governor" Balytskyi of the Zaporizhzhia region suffered. His condition is still unknown.
● Hulaipole is under constant Russian fire. Over the past 24 hours, more than 50 civilian homes have been destroyed.
DNIPRO
Regional Military Administration: People did not suffer from yesterday's attack by the Russian troops on the industrial enterprise of Krivyi Rih.
● The Russians fired at the territories of three communities in the Kryvyi Rih district of Dnipro. They mostly hit fields, but a settlement suffered in the Zelenodilsk community. Outbuildings and one residential building were damaged, there were no casualties.
● Ukrainian Armed Forces successfully conducted a counterattack south of Kryvii Rih. The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 63 Russians and 19 units of enemy vehicles, including modern T-72 tanks, a multiple-launch rocket system "Grad", artillery, helicopters and one SU-35 aircraft.
● Overnight shelling of the Kryvyi Rih district by Russian troops. They hit on the Zelenodolsk and Apostolove territorial communities. No one got hurt.
MYKOLAIV
Mayor: Yesterday morning’s shelling of the residential quarter of Mykolaiv: according to preliminary data, one person died, two more were injured.
Regional Military Administration: From May 30, visiting beaches and other recreation areas on the territory of the Ochakiv, Chornomorsk and Kutsurub united communities of the Mykolaiv region is prohibited to civilians. The territories of the beaches will be patrolled by law enforcement officers, the territory defense and the municipal guard.
● Russian troops shelled Novyi Buh in the Mykolaiv region at 01:01 The city centre received significant damage. There are no more details.
ODESA
Mayor of Izmail: In Izmail, the Odesa region, a monument to the Russian commander Oleksandr Suvorov was doused with red paint. This is not the first time the monument has been damaged. On May 7, people brought household appliances there with the inscription "Russian military, take it and go."
Regional Military Administration: Russia launched a missile strike on the Odesa region at 07:08. Details are being clarified. Also, Ukrainian air defence forces managed to shoot down one missile launched by a bomber from the Black Sea area.
REST OF UKRAINE
Kyiv Regional Military Administration: In the Kyiv region, 161 high-rise buildings and 4674 private houses were completely destroyed. Modular temporary towns are being built for the homeless, one of which has been located in Borodyanka.
State Border Guard: The Russians shelled the territory of the Novhorod-Siversk district of the Chernihiv region 9 times. The border guards counted 33 explosions of Russian shells.
Sumy Regional Military Administration: Yesterday at 13:00 Russia fired from its territory on the outskirts of Bachevsk, Shostka district of Sumy region. As a result, there were about 5 mortar rounds.
● Around 17:20-17:45, observers recorded about 30 explosions (preliminarily mortar) in the Boiaro-Lezhachi village. There are no casualties among the personnel and equipment"
● Yesterday night, the Ukrainian aircraft hit two targets over the Romenskyi district of the Sumy region. Probably they were Russian UAVs.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis