Ukraine – May 3, 2023 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
May 3, 2023
Drones Over the Kremlin
Ukraine is denying responsibility for last night’s drone strike against the Kremlin. Now, there is an increasing level of plausible deniability. Other possibilities include:
· Russian false flag operation – Possible, given the fact that Ukraine is apparently about to launch a counteroffensive, and the Kremlin attack could be used as a pretext for a major action against Ukraine, especially considering the up-coming Victory Day parade on May 9th.
· Resistance groups – There have recent claims of attacks by resistance groups, but it’s unlikely that they’d have the capability to conduct an operation of this nature.
· Private Military Contractors (PMC) – In addition to Wagner, there are now several private military contractors active in Ukraine. Rivalries and turf battles are starting up, pitting one PMC against another.
“Ukraine Can Point the Pentagon Toward a New Way of War”/Wall St. Journal
This Wall Street Journal Op-Ed describes a development that we have been speaking about for years – the critical roles played by Ukrainian Civil Society in supporting the military. They are joined at the hip.
Today’s Ukrainian military grew out of the defense of Independence Square during the 2013/2014 Revolution of Dignity. It is impossible to understand the current success of Ukraine’s military in fighting the Russians, without understanding what took place during the Revolution of Dignity. Volunteer battalions established during the Revolution of Dignity, like the Aidar Battalion now fighting in Bakhmut, now make up a major component of the regular Ukrainian Army. Civil society groups play critical roles in supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces, from raising money for drones to sewing camouflage for snipers.
Since the Wall Street Journal has a strict paywall, here are two excerpts (with commentary) –
“Washington is spending tens of billions of dollars on military equipment and financial aid for Kyiv. At a minimum it seems prudent for the U.S. military to have more flexibility to respond to the rapidly changing requirements and threats facing Ukrainians on the front.”
“How, then, can the American military adapt? The first step is to consider nonstate actors as potential partners. There are several in Kyiv that have been active since Mr. Putin’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. In 2014, we met the founder of Anomaly, a company that has been producing and distributing thousands of trauma kits to Ukrainian troops for pennies on the dollar. Citizen-based groups understand the formal and informal aspects of Ukrainian politics and can identify local power brokers. They understand conditions on the ground, particularly the training and equipment needed to stay in the fight.”
One of the problems described by the author, that limit the interaction between the U.S. Government and the groups the author describes, is American paranoia about Ukrainian corruption. To receive U.S. support, it is often the case that Ukrainian organizations have to be vetted. One problem is groups in Ukraine are often formed for short period of time, perhaps around a single project, they break up, and then they’re reconstituted. They’re not “organizations” In our sense of the term.
“Ukraine’s open society stands in stark contrast with its Russian foe. Its patriots and international supporters can take the initiative in fighting to expel Russian forces. In this new era of irregular warfare, America can begin integrating local volunteer groups into military efforts. If it does—in addition to unshackling itself from bureaucracy at home—it will be ready for whatever international challenge comes next.”
We have said before, in these emails, that to get a good example of how Ukraine’s civil society groups work in practice, one would do well to go back over 250 years just prior to the American Revolution, and study now the Committees of Correspondence and Committees of Public Safety operated in colonial cities towns. They were a type of shadow government, operating in parallel to the British. In Ukraine, civil society groups play a very similar role with the Ukrainian Government, except the former was adversarial and the latter increasingly complementary. The U.S. Government would do well to better understand this development.
News From the Battlefield
According to “Reporting From Ukraine,” Ukrainians continue to cause havoc on Russian attackers around Bakhmut. The “Latest Denys” contains photographs of the damage to the Russian oil facility near Sevastopol, the main refueling source for the Black Sea Fleet. In today’s email it is noted that Russia has only 1 missile carrying ship operating in the Black Sea, when they usually have as many as 4. Both Denys and Reporting From Ukraine describes limited Ukrainian counterattacks in Avdiivka and Bakhmut.
5/3/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon May 2 to 12:00 noon May 3, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Wednesday May 3
10:56 am: Turkey will no longer need to import gas, we will supply it ourselves, - President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
· During a speech as part of the election campaign, Erdogan said that a large oil field had been found in the country, which can produce 100,000 barrels of hydrocarbons per day.
· According to the politician, the field will allow Turkey to take a step towards energy independence and take a place in the world energy market, producing 180 thousand barrels of oil per day.
9:55 am: Talks in Brussels between Kosovo and Serbia have so far broken down, with representatives of the parties never reaching rapprochement in a dispute over the tense situation in northern Kosovo.
· This was announced by EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell, writes Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
· "Unfortunately, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti could not reach an agreement, now the situation may become critical," Borrell said after hours of talks.
9:17 am Politico: The United States plans to announce a new $300 million military aid package for Ukraine today.
· According to the publication, this package will include laser-guided missiles Hydra 70 and other weapons.
Tuesday May 2
11:59 pm: Israel strikes the Gaza Strip. The reason was the Palestinian attack on southern Israel in the afternoon. This was reported by local media
11:40 p.m.: Latvian police say laying flowers at sites where authorities have dismantled Soviet monuments on May 9 would be regarded as "glorifying these sites and aggression."
11:00 pm: Putin was not invited to the coronation of Charles III, Reuters reports
· According to a British source, the UK did not send invitations to the coronation to the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Iran, Myanmar, Syria, Afghanistan and Venezuela.
9:57 p.m.: The U.S. is aware that Ukraine is planning a counteroffensive in the coming weeks, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with Fox News.
· "We know that Ukrainians are planning a counteroffensive in the coming weeks. Let's see what happens. Ultimately, their success on the battlefield is the best and possibly fastest path to negotiations that will bring a just and lasting peace," he said.
9:41 pm EC press service: The European Commission has banned exports of Ukrainian agricultural products to five European countries for a month.
· The restrictions will be in effect from May 2 to June 5, if necessary, they can be extended. During this period, Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower can be freely sold in all EU countries, except Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
7:57 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with President of the Union of Comoros Azali Assomani for the first time in the history of relations.
· "I congratulated my colleague on his election as President of the African Union. He noted that Ukraine is interested in developing cooperation with Africa and, for its part, is ready to remain the guarantor of food security in the world," the president wrote.
05:48 pm: Denmark will provide Ukraine with a new package of military assistance for a counteroffensive worth almost $ 250 million, the country's Defense Ministry said.
· It included demining vehicles, air defense equipment and ammunition.
5:12 pm: 87% of Georgian citizens consider Russia the biggest political threat to their country, according to a poll by the International Republican Institute.
· 76% of respondents see an economic threat from Russia.
· The idea of NATO membership as a way to ensure the security of their country is supported by 80%, and Georgian membership in the EU was supported by 89% of respondents. At the same time, 77% of respondents insist on Georgia's accession to the EU, even if it leads to the cessation of trade with Russia.
4:32 pm: More than 100 police officers were injured during yesterday's protest in France. It is reported by the Air force.
· The Ministry of internal Affairs of the country said that law enforcement officers were injured due to flares and checkers with gasoline, which were used by protesters.
2:51 p.m.: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and agree to cooperate on reforming the UN Security Council - NHK.
NATIONAL
Wednesday May 3
11:55 am: A battalion of German IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile systems has destroyed more than 60 air targets since October last year, - Commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Lieutenant-General Mykola Oleshchuk.
· Oleshchuk added that at the end of April, the second IRIS-T division entered combat duty in Ukraine.
7:55 am: 21 "shahed" destroyed tonight, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
· The launch of the "shaheds" was carried out from the north (Bryansk region) and from the south - the east coast of the Sea of Azov.
7:21 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Last day, the Russians inflicted 3 missile, 39 air strikes and carried out 63 MLRS attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and settlements.
· Russia continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions - it has carried out more than 30 attacks. Bakhmut and Marinka remain in the epicenter of hostilities, Ukrainian defenders are holding the defense.
· Russians continue forced passportization of the population of the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson region. A column of empty buses arrives in the village, accompanied by representatives of the FSB, who, referring to the decree recently signed by the President of the Russian Federation on the deportation of persons without Russian citizenship from the occupied territories, set people a radical condition: either the rejection of a Ukrainian passport in favor of a Russian one, or immediate eviction with confiscation of property.
· Over the past day, the Defense Forces inflicted 8 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel, and units of missile troops and artillery hit 1 control point, 12 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, 4 ammunition depots, 1 air defense system and another important enemy target.
12:27 am: NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that Crimea will be liberated in a way chosen by Ukraine.
· According to him, the explosions in Crimea are God "sending signals to the Russians that they need to get out of there. And these signals go in the appropriate way."
Tuesday May 2
10:13 pm: From September 2023, it will be possible to buy and sell a car in the Diia application, said Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.
· According to Klymenko, during the purchase and sale procedure, "only the seller, the buyer and two smartphones will be needed."
· Also, mandatory technical expertise during the sale will be eliminated, it will need to be carried out only if the buyer himself wants to check the technical condition of the car. At the same time, during the first registration of a car, examination remains mandatory.
7:11 p.m.: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Portuguese Parliament President Augusto Santos Silva.
· "We discussed cooperation on the path of Ukraine's integration into the European Union and NATO, the priority needs of Ukrainian defenders. We hope that the Government and the Parliament of Portugal will be able to make the necessary decisions to strengthen the capabilities of Ukrainian defenders on the front line," the president wrote.
6:21 pm General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Today, the enemy inflicted 3 missile, 30 air strikes and carried out about 8 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on the positions of our troops and settlements.
· Units of the defense forces of Ukraine repulsed more than 20 enemy attacks during the day.
· In the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, there are still cases of forcible abduction of pro-Ukrainian civilians, as well as the arrangement of new torture chambers for their detention, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· In particular, one of these torture chambers was set up by Russians in the police department of the temporarily captured Chaplynka, Kherson region. Up to ten civilians, including minors, are currently being illegally detained there.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 5 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel. Also, our defenders shot down three enemy UAVs of various types - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· Missile troops and artillery units hit one control point, 12 areas of concentration of manpower, 4 ammunition depots, 1 air defense system and another important enemy target.
4:50 pm: The Verkhovna Rada has recognized the political regime in Russia as rashism, MP Alexei Goncharenko said.
· People's deputies called on the UN, the EU, the governments of democratic countries to support the condemnation of the policy of Rashism. 281 deputies voted "for".
3:30 pm: If Ukraine had F-16 aircraft, Lviv airport could be opened, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, commenting on Eurocontrol's forecast to restrict flights over Ukraine until 2029.
· "We would all like at least one airport to work, but this is a security issue and whether the airline will resume its work. We are working on it, we want it to happen as soon as possible. But the fact that Eurocontrol has expressed its position too conservatively is unequivocal.
· By the way, if we had F-16s, and they patrolled the Ukrainian sky, then the airport of Lviv could be safely opened and not worry about anything at all. It's all about delays in decision-making," Kuleba said.
03:11 pm: 647 rounds of ammunition destroyed during the day, State Emergency Services said.
1:35 pm: Distribution networks in Sumy and Kherson regions damaged due to shelling, - Ministry of Energy.
· At the same time, after the massive shelling that took place on the night of May 1, power supply was restored to consumers in Dnipro and the region. In addition, consumers in Kharkiv and Kherson regions were healed.
1:20 pm Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine: The Ministry of Internal Affairs is currently working on a law on the circulation of civilian weapons - there are many discussions.
· In addition, Klymenko stressed that all weapons that the Ministry of Internal Affairs issued to Ukrainians at the beginning of a full-scale war are fully registered.
12:30 pm: 8 enemy ships are on alert in the Black Sea, including 1 carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles, a total salvo of up to 4 missiles - the Ukrainian Navy.
Mordor - russia
Wednesday May 3
8:20 AM: In Taman, Krasnodar region of the Russian Federation, near the Crimean bridge, an oil depot is on fire. Russian media write about the drone attack.
:09 am: In Russia, in the village of Tumryuk, Krasnodar Territory, an oil depot is on fire, the media.
· It is reported that an unknown UAV flew into a tank with oil products in the port of Taman.
· The local governor said the fires were assigned the highest level of severity.
Tuesday May 2
11:25 pm: There are satellite photos of the aftermath of the explosion that occurred on the night of April 29
· The photo shows several burnt tanks where oil products were stored for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
9:27 pm: New interception of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine:
· The Russian talks about significant losses, the indifferent attitude of the leadership to the lives of the military. He also notes that planning of actions between groups is carried out using outdated maps of the area, the procedure for interaction with adjacent units and support groups is worked out only formally, which leads to corresponding losses in units.
8:49 pm: In the Bryansk region, Russian unknown assailants blew up a railway track.
· According to Russian media, several freight cars derailed and overturned.
7:25 pm Social Networks: Explosions were heard in temporarily occupied Sevastopol, local residents said.
· The so-called "governor" said that this was allegedly "preventive work of air defense."
2:20 pm: SBU exposes dealers in Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr who financed "DPR" militants for more than UAH 50 million.
· The offenders arranged the supply of mining equipment from the temporarily occupied Donetsk region to the territory controlled by Ukraine.
· Such "trade turnover" ensured regular revenues to the "budget" of the terrorist organization "DPR" in the form of "taxes" and "fees".
KHARKIV
Tuesday May 2
5:30 pm Kharkiv RMA: Today around 2:20 p.m. in the Izyum district of Kharkiv region, a tractor blew up in a field between the villages of Verbivka and Vovchyi Yar, two people died from their injuries.
DONETSK
Wednesday May 3
10:35 am Donetsk RMA: In the middle of the night, Russians hit Kostiantynivka with kamikaze drones. Also in the afternoon, the city was shelled - 1 person was wounded, 2 infrastructure facilities, 5 high-rise buildings and 7 private houses were damaged
· In Volnovakha direction, 1 house was damaged under Gradiv Novoukrainka fire. In Donetsk sector, the enemy fired twice at the Kurakhivska community - 1 person was wounded in Hannivka.
· In the Horlivka direction, an infrastructure facility in the Northern Toretsk community was damaged.
Tuesday May 2
7:41 p.m.: Head of the Public Relations Service of the Territorial Defense Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi denied information about the death of TRO commander Ihor Tantsiura.
· Earlier, the head of PMC "Wagner" Prigozhin said that his units near Bakhmut allegedly hit the car in which Tantsiura was, as a result of which the general was killed.
ZAPORIZHIA
Wednesday May 3
11:20 am Zaporizhia RMA: Russians carried out 82 attacks on civilian settlements in Zaporizhzhia region: 2 missile strikes, 3 air strikes, 4 UAV attacks and 69 artillery strikes.
· "Several hours of shelling survived the frontline settlements: Novoyakovlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole and 13 other villages. There was a lot of destruction in different communities: houses, property, social infrastructure and communal networks were burning," he said.
1:26 am Social Networks: Explosion heard in Zaporizhzhia.
Tuesday May 2
6:07 pm Operational Air Force Command East: In Zaporizhzhia region, a unit of the Nikopol anti-aircraft missile regiment destroyed an enemy UAV, presumably Orlan.
4:10 pm: In the temporarily occupied Melitopol, today they tried to liquidate the head of the so-called Department of Internal Affairs of the temporarily occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region.
· This was reported by Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov.
· "According to the updated data, this morning's explosion knocked on the house of the deputy head of the so-called Department of Internal Affairs of the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia region when he opened the gate. As a result of the explosion of explosives, he was injured and hospitalized," Fedorov said.
3:31 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Zaporizhzhia.
DNIPRO
Wednesday May 3
1:35 am Social Networks: An explosion was heard again in Dnipro.
1:20 am Social Networks: An explosion was heard in Dnipro.
KHERSON
Wednesday May 3
11:35 am: Around 11 a.m. today, the Russians struck Kherson's only working hypermarket, the Interior Ministry said.
· "Three dead, five wounded as of now. These are employees and visitors of the institution. All operational services are in place. They provide assistance to people," said Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko.
Tuesday May 2
11:08 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
8:30 pm Kherson RMA: Russian forces shelled the village of Urozhayne, Beryslav hromada, wounding a 17-year-old teenager.
5:07 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
03:50 pm: The Russians dropped two aerial bombs on an island near the village of Veletenske in the Kherson region, Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak said.
· According to him, as a result of the Russian attack, three people were killed and five were wounded.
12:46 pm RMA: In Kherson region, near the village of Mala Seydemynukha, a sapper exploded while on duty on Russian explosives.
· One of the mines detonated, causing a 38-year-old minesweeper to be seriously injured. He lost part of his right leg, and also received shrapnel wounds to his face. The man was hospitalized, doctors provide him with the necessary medical care.
MYKOLAIV
Wednesday May 3
10:15 am: SBU detains spotter of Russian air attacks on Mykolaiv.
· For each "mark" on the electronic map, the defendant received from the Russian invaders 2 thousand rubles. UAH.
· According to the investigation, the defendant turned out to be a student of one of the local universities, whom in March this year the Russian special service remotely involved in secret cooperation. The attacker faces up to 12 years in prison. An investigation is underway to establish all the circumstances of the crime.
ODESA
Tuesday May 2
1:51 pm: Odesa residents carry flowers to the House of Trade Unions, where a terrible fire broke out on May 2, 2014, killing 42 people.
KYIV
Wednesday May 3
9:35 am: The KMVA reported that explosive objects will be eliminated today in the Vyshgorod district.
· "So it can be loud in some areas of the city! Keep calm! During the air raid alarm, stay in shelters," local residents warned.
6:49 am: In Kyiv at night, all enemy targets were destroyed! – Head of CMVA Serhiy Popko.
· The third attack on the capital in the last six days was successfully repelled.
2:16 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard again in Kyiv, followers report. Previously, the work of air defense.
1:43 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard again in Kyiv, followers report. Previously, the work of air defense.
12:53 am: Kyiv regional administration confirms the work of air defense in the region.
12:49 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Kyiv. Previously, the work of air defense.
12:39 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Kyiv region, followers report.
Tuesday May 2
1:06 pm: According to the Kyiv City Military Administration, as of this morning, the water level of the Dnieper River in Kyiv near the Metro bridge is 9,297 cm (Baltic Elevation System).
· Compared to the previous day, the level of flood increased by only +1 cm. There is a stabilization of the water level, without significant rises.
· At the same time, floodplain areas remain flooded - islands in the park "Muromets", "Hydropark", Trukhanov Island, Galernaya Bay, Korchuvate, private plots in the Osokorki area.
SUMY
Tuesday May 2
2:05 pm Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, the enemy carried out 6 attacks on the border area. About 20 explosions were recorded.
· It is reported that the Russians shelled the Novoslobodska, Shalyhynska, Yunakivska, Seredyno-Budska and Bilopilska communities.
CHERNIHIV
Tuesday May 2
2:34 pm Operational Command North: From 7 a.m. to 12:00 p.m., Russian terrorists fired four times at the border of Chernihiv region.
· About casualties among the local population or damage to civilian infrastructure
KIROVOHRAD
Wednesday May 2
8:35 am Kirovohrad RMA: Tonight, 3 Geranium-2 shaheds attacked an oil depot in Kropyvnytskyi.
· According to him, there were no casualties. All services worked promptly. The elimination of the consequences of arrival began immediately. Information about damage is being clarified.
3:21 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Kropyvnytskyi.
CHERKASY
Wednesday May 2
3:22 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Cherkasy region.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
The drone attack on the Kremlin looks like a small explosion for a bomb. At that time, you can see the shadow of a person on the other side of the roof. The bomb didn't explode, just fuel. Or maybe they didn't have bombs in the first place. Then it might be close to self-made performance.