Bob Homans May 3

20220504

Ukraine – May 3rd Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 3, 2022

Hungary/Orban

There are reports that on a visit to Moscow just before the start of the war, that Putin told Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, of Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine.   Hungary is a Member of both NATO and the EU.  It is unclear whether Orban declining to promptly inform NATO and the EU of information critical to the security of these institutions is a potential violation of Hungary’s obligations as a member.

This reminds me of what may have happened on February 21, 2014, when former President Yanukovich, while still President of Ukraine, was likely informed of Russia’s plans to invade Crimea and didn’t inform either Ukrainian opposition leaders or 3 EU observers he was meeting with, at the time he likely got the information directly from Putin via a 45 minute phone call.

Pope Francis

Politico reported that Pope Francis stated that NATO enlargement may have provoked Russia to invade Ukraine.   He said he wants to visit Moscow, to discuss with Putin how to end the war.   He also said that he wants to visit Moscow, prior to visiting Kyiv.

To me, this is another example of the Catholic Church trying to Ukraine’s Greek Catholic Church, to curry favor with Moscow.  Followers of the Greek Catholic Church recognize Pope Francis as their spiritual leader.   It is likely that Pope Francis also wants to re-schedule a meeting with Patriarch Kirill, originally scheduled to take place this June, in Jerusalem.

Accelerating Russian Equipment Losses – Why?

A couple of readers have commented on accelerated losses of Russian equipment, as reported by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (see table below).    Russian losses in artillery, tanks, armored personnel carriers, anti-aircraft systems, and drones appear to be accelerating.   The reason could be a combination of increased tempo of deployment of the weapons supplied by Ukraine’s partners, especially counter-battery radars, and anti-tank weapons, and Ukraine’s receipt of real-time intelligence from NATO assets.  

Judging from the recent sinkings of Russian Navy ships in the Black Sea, Ukraine is increasingly able to coordinate in real time, the application of different weapons platforms in the elimination of one objective.   The sinking of the Moskva required Ukraine to incorporate at least one Turkish drone, 2 Neptune anti-ship missiles, and intelligence likely obtained from AWACS aircraft flying over Romania, into a strategy that ended up with the sinking of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Chernihiv

Using places where I have been that have been scarred by this war, I decided to include brief descriptions of those places.   One such place is Chernihiv, 93 miles north of Kyiv, 45 miles south of the border with Belarus, and just west of Chernobyl.   Chernihiv and its residents were subjected to a 1-month siege.   Here is an account of the siege, from the “New Yorker” magazine.

In the Spring of 2007, I went to Chernihiv with colleagues from the International Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Leasing Project.   I was on loan from a comparable project because, unlike my IFC colleagues, I had worked in the leasing industry and started a leasing company.   We gave a talk to Chernihiv’s business community about the benefits of equipment financing.

On the way to Chernihiv, we stopped in a village where one of my IFC colleagues was building a dacha.   His village, along with many others, must have suffered from the destruction and loss of life that has resulted from the Russian assault.

What the New Yorker article doesn’t mention is Chernihiv’s substantial collection of medieval Orthodox Churches, dating back to the 11th Century.  We arrived in Chernihiv the afternoon before our talk, giving us plenty of time to visit most of the churches.   I am not aware of what kind of damage, if any, was suffered by Chernihiv’s churches, from the Russian siege.

5/3 Sitrep

While studying Soviet political economy in Canada during the 1970s one of the constant themes raised by Western and Soviet analysts was the gradual Islamification of the Soviet Union.  The line went as follows.  The white Slavic population of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine is not reproducing as fast as the rest of the Soviet Union and will likely be overtaken by non-Slavic Muslim peoples by 2030 – 2040. 

Analysts of all stripes always added the word white to Slavs and Muslim to non-Slavs.  When I arrived in Ukraine before the collapse of the Soviet Union and spoke with people on the streets the demographics were described in much simpler racist terms.  Slavs = Whites and Blacks = everyone else.

Back in the seventies of the last century academic discussion was what can the Soviet Union do to ensure a Slavic white majority population.  Soviets I met back then, and Russians I meet today still worry about being overrun by black Muslim Russian speakers.  Ukrainians share some of this racism but are mostly concerned about economic well-being than racial purity.

Racist bias was a driver of Soviet policy and remains an important part of Russian policy today.  In this there is a strong resemblance with other European and non-European countries with imperial pasts.  This bias may be part of the reason why Russia is keen on abducting Ukrainian children.  The notion is that Russia seeks to ensure its whiteness by conquering white Ukraine to compensate for the falling Russian birth rate.

The flipside of Russian racist policies are liberation movements.  The most obvious one was the two Chechen wars.  Less obvious but of greater consequence to Russia’s imperial ambitions is resentment.  Kazakh news sources I read occasionally are becoming more vocal in their opinions about who should win the war and why.

Kazakhstan, a putative Russian ally, has made it clear it wants no part in the war.  Less obvious is its silent support for a Russian defeat.  It appears that a Russian defeat would allow Kazakhstan to deal with issues of Russian military bases, the Baikonur Rocket facility, Soviet nuclear testing on its territory, and just generally be free of Moscow to make its own decisions.

Russia’s romp in Ukraine is turning out to be a greater threat to the Russian imperial ambition than to Ukraine.  Although I don’t read Tajik, Kirghiz, Uzbek, or Turkmen sources I think, by stereotype, that they may share the same opinion.  In this case I hope that my stereotyping is more right than wrong.

INTERNATIONAL

A hidden call to Russians to help locate a missing dog name Peace that disappeared on February 24 appeared in a poster broadly posted in Moscow.

Russia was not allowed to participate in the UNESCO conference on free journalism, - Russian Foreign Ministry reports.

German Chancellor:  "Our goal should be that Ukraine can defend its sovereignty, its freedom and its democracy. We support Ukraine in this. We act in a balanced way and adapt to the current situation. And we act decisively."

Pentagon:   5,000 more Javelin anti-tank missiles will be delivered to Ukraine by Friday.

Sky News:  The US Central Intelligence Agency urges Russians dissatisfied with the authorities to get in touch via the Darknet.

UEFA has declared Russia's bid to host the European Championships 2028 and 2032 unacceptable.  It has also banned Russian clubs from Champions League and Nations League.

Forest fires in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia, are burning out of control because the army, which normally handles them, is in Ukraine.

Reuters:  The European Commission may make an exception and exclude Hungary and Slovakia from the embargo on the purchase of Russian oil.

Financial Times:  Indian steel company Tata Steel stops buying Russian coal.

The Insider:  Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, about 2,000 Yandex employees have left Russia, which is about 10% of employees.

DW:  The Danish and Swedish Foreign Ministries summoned the Russian ambassadors because of the violation of air borders.

Russian Foreign Minister’s statement that the most ardent anti-Semites are most often, Jews.  Elicited strong criticism from the Government of Israel.  “Jews did not kill themselves during the Holocaust. Accusing Jews themselves of anti-Semitism is the lowest level of racism against Jews.”

Social media: In Yekaterinburg, Russia, flags with the “z” sign and Soviet symbols were hung outside a Russian Orthodox Church

United News:  The ex-commander of the US Army in Europe said Russia will not be able to make it to Transnistria.  “While we see that the Russian fleet failed to make it to shore, we know what happened to the Moskva ship, and I consider this unlikely.”

CNN:  The First Lady of the United States will travel to Slovakia and Romania to meet with Ukrainian refugees on May 5.

The businessman Oleg Tinkov, who spoke out against the war: I was forced to sell a stake in Tinkoff Bank for a penny because of my statements.  He has hired security because of threats to his life.

Rallies in support of Ukraine yesterday in Milan, Montreal, Torun (Poland), Philadelphia, Edmonton, Charlotte (North Carolina USA), Chicago, Lisbon, and Venice.

Ukraine Business News:  Ukraine's victory in the war with Russia depends on three factors. Ukraine's victory in the war with Russia depends on sanctions, weapons, and the prospect of EU membership said Ukrainian Foreign Minister 

Bloomberg Billionaires Index:   Wealthy Russians have lost more than $45 billion since the beginning of the year.

In the Russian media, information appeared that the governor of the Belgorod and his wife left Russia.  The wife of the official posted a photo with her husband on Instagram with a mark of the Moscow Domodedovo airport, then quickly deleted it. They are likely on board an Emirates aircraft flying to Dubai.

Putin may officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9, American and Western officials believe – СNN

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy:  The new EU sanctions package will expand the list of Russian banks that are cut off SWIFT.

NATO Joint Forces Command Naples:  "NATO Response Force has been activated and NATO has established a new battle group in Romania"

British intelligence report:

·       Russian's defence budget approximately doubled between 2005 and 2018, with investment in several high-end air, land and sea capabilities. From 2008 this underpinned the expansive military administration programme New Look.

·       However, the modernization of its physical equipment has not enabled Russia to dominate Ukraine. Failures both in strategic planning and operational execution have left it unable to translate numerical strength into decisive advantage.

·       Russia’s military is now significantly weaker, both materially and conceptually, as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. Recovery from this will be exacerbated by sanctions. This will have a lasting impact on Russia’s ability to deploy conventional military force.

Minister of Climate and Environment of Poland:   At the summit in Brussels, Poland will present a proposal to introduce a tax on Russian raw materials.

NATIONAL

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will address the Ukrainian parliament tomorrow.

Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbalyuk reports: One of the companies of the 21st separate motorized rifle brigade  (military unit 12128, Totskoye-2, Orenburg region) in full force, including the Commander, refused to be sent to the territory of Ukraine.

The first Russian soldier surrendered today to the "Freedom of Russia” Legion.  The soldier came and said he wanted to join the Russian volunteers who are fighting for Ukraine.

Minister of Finance:  Ukraine received a grant from the World Bank in the amount of 495 million euros, money from the United States, Norway and Austria.

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: 

·       A campaign to recruit 200 volunteers from each federal district weekly, except Moscow, is being held in the Russian Federation; these "volunteers" for military service are to serve under contract. 

·       General mobilization, which should end before May 24 in Ukraine, may be extended.

·       “Russia intends not only to seize Donbass, but also cut off Ukraine from the Black and Azov Seas."

The Security Service of Ukraine has identified almost 900 Russian soldiers who committed crimes against civilians in Kyiv region.

Commissioner for Children's Rights and Child Rehabilitation:  Russia illegally deported or transported 181,000 Ukrainian children to occupied territories.

The State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine detained saboteurs associated with ex parliamentary deputy Kiva who has fled to Russia.  They planned to stage disruptions in Odesa.

·       Announced the arrest of another $4.5 million of "dirty" assets of a former member of parliament, close to the family of Viktor Yanukovych.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

·       According to available information, in the city of Boguchar, Voronizh region, from April 27 to May 2, 2022, seventeen tanks and sixty BMP-1s were removed from storage. They were sent to Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by Russian troops.

·       Over the previous day, air defense units of the Air Force and the Ground Forces hit 7 Orlan-10 UAVs and 1 Forpost UAV.

·       Over the past 24 hours, 12 Russian attacks were repulsed on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, 6 tanks, 5 artillery systems, 22 units of military armored vehicles and 8 units of motor vehicles of the Russian Federation were destroyed.

Ukraine Business News:  Ukraine plans to simplify the requirements for the export/import of agricultural products during martial law.  A draft law provides for the simplification of phytosanitary requirements and the procedure for state registration of pesticides and agrochemicals.

Reuters:  Hungary returned its embassy in Ukraine from Lviv back to Kyiv.

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council:  There can be no peace treaty with Russia - only the capitulation of the Russian Federation.  According to him, the turning point in the war has not yet occurred, but it will certainly come, given the amount of aid that comes to Ukraine. 

·       There is a sufficient number of mobilized people in Ukraine today.  Now we are training and preparing our fighters. What we did in the first place is enough for us to be able to defend our country".

Ukraine Business News:  In April, inflation in Ukraine was 15.9%, and by year end may exceed 20%.  "This cannot be compared with 2015 when inflation reached 60%.  Prices will keep rising but the exchange rate will be managed and there will be some economic restrictions.  But as soon as the monetary policies start working and uncertainty decreases, Ukraine will return to inflation targeting, which helped to overcome inflation of 60%," the National Bank chairman said.

“The Embassy of Sweden will resume its work in Kyiv on Wednesday, May 4th” - said Minister for Foreign Affairs

Ukraine Business News:  Ukraine's government is working on a new economic recovery plan whose nine main principles are:

1.      Full access to the EU and G7 markets.

2.      Obtaining candidate status and then full membership in the EU.

3.      Building an economy on the principles of deregulation and liberalization.

4.      Establishment logistics routes in the Western direction.

5.      The transition from the export of raw materials to processing.

6.      Development of the domestic military-industrial complex.

7.      Self-sufficiency in energy, by increasing domestic gas production and nuclear power.

8.      Climate modernization.

9.      Utilization of domestic companies, not less than 60%, in the reconstruction of Ukraine.

DONBAS

Luhansk Regional Military Administration

·       After yesterday's shelling by the Russian Federation, the Lysychansk school, which was built in the 1880s, burned to the ground.

·       Russian soldiers once again disrupted the evacuation from Rubizhne and are shelling the humanitarian headquarters.

·       Russians have seized the uniform and transport of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Luhansk region, provocations are possible.

Donetsk Regional Military Administration

·       Vuhledar apartment buildings hit by artillery – damages but no injuries or casualties.

·       On May 2, the Russians killed another civilian in the Donetsk region - in Dibrova. 8 more people were injured.

·       In addition, in Bakhmut, medical assistance was provided to 4 civilians wounded in the Luhansk region.

Presidents Office:  The "mayor" of Berdyansk, appointed by the invaders, was previously convicted of pedophilia. A janitor was appointed deputy "mayor”.

Advisor to the Mayor:  Russian soldiers are carrying out an informational blockade in Mariupol.

·       Russian trucks that bring "humanitarian aid" to the city are loaded with the bodies of dead Mariupol citizens on the way back.

·       Russians do not have time to exhume the bodies of murdered Mariupol residents, because the graves they - dig up and corpses taken away residents again bury new bodies. Many corpses are pulled out from under the rubble. The city has an ultra-high mortality due to a lack of drinking water, food and medicine.

A large-scale fire broke out in the temporarily occupied Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast.

"I will never forget the conversation between two soldiers: - What did you do with people who did not pass filtration? "I shot ten and didn't count further - it's not interesting",  - 17-year-old Mariia from Mariupol on how she and her family went through Russian "filtration".

KHARKIV

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:  

·       In the morning, a fire broke out at a factory due to a Russian missile hit in the Kharkiv region. One person died

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Zaporozhia Regional Military Administration: 

·       Russian telegram channels are spreading a fake that, allegedly, Ukrainian farmers are selling grain to Crimea.  The grain is either stolen by the occupying authorities or bought at half the price at gunpoint.

CNN:  Russians in Melitopol stole $5 million worth of farm equipment from a John Deere dealership, only to have it remotely disabled by the owners.  Russians are trying to override the controls and, failing that, they are likely to disassemble the equipment and sell the parts.

Anonymous hackers report:   In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Anonymous retweeted a NetBlocks post stating that after traffic diagnostics, it was found that the Ukrainian Internet provider Skynet (Khersontelecom) is now routed through Russian Miranda and Rostelecom, and not through the Ukrainian telecommunications infrastructure.

Crimean Tatar Resource Center:  Russian soldiers in Melitopol kidnapped an employee of the local museum. Nothing has been known about the whereabouts of Halina Kucher for several days. 

Chornobaivka near Kherson attacked for the 18th time.  Arms and munitions once again liquidated.

State Forest Resources Agency of Ukraine:  More than 800 hectares of forest were engulfed in fire in Kherson Oblast.  The Russian military interfered with putting out the fire - they did not let the forest guards in until the fire reached the checkpoints of the Russian military.  The fire was localized, but the forest guard of Kherson has not been heard from for two days.

Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration:  "Two attacks without casualties. One more attack was launched in one area outside the city. "

Odesa Regional Military Administration:  The Russian army launched missile attacks on the bridge across the Dniester estuary.

·       On the morning of May 3, service members of an anti-aircraft missile unit destroyed a Russian outpost drone

REST OF UKRAINE

There are two more Russian missile attacks in the Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipro Oblast hitting grain facilities on a pig farm, and setting alight a forest.

Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs visited Irpin.  Following he met the President and said that Denmark will assist in the restoration of Mykolaiv.

Kyiv Regional Police:  The bodies of 1,202 civilians have already been found in Kyiv region, who were killed by Russian soldiers. 208 of them remain unidentified.  In addition, as of May 2, about 300 people remain missing in region.  Eight mass graves were discovered in the Kyiv region after the retreat of Russian troops.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news