Ukraine – 5/27/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
May 27, 2023
“Satellite Data Shows Ukraine’s Forces are Testing Russian Defenses”/Economist
Based on data from thermal imaging satellites that cover Ukraine frequently, this article discusses the uptick in Ukrainian artillery attacks against Russian defenses. The article states that the uptick 2 days ago, May 25th, is similar to what was observed in August of last year, just before the beginning of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kherson.
I expect that when and where the counteroffensive will begin will depend largely on opportunity. Last September, Ukraine saw an opportunity in Kharkiv Oblast which they successfully exploited, and they liberated almost all the Kharkiv Region with minimal losses in equipment and personnel. Last year’s counteroffensive in Kherson was different. Everyone knew it was coming and, partly as a result, in the early stages Ukraine encountered lots of Russian resistance and Ukraine took substantial casualties. This time, if they’re able, it is likely that Ukraine is looking to conduct more of a Kharkiv-style counteroffensive. To do that, as the Economist article states, “Ukrainian commanders will try to keep their Russian counterparts, and the rest of us, guessing what they might do next.”
“The secretive prisons where Russia hides and tortures Ukrainian civilians”/Meduza IO
This article stands on its own, without any further comment.
“Defense in Depth”/The Telegraph
This is a weekly video hosted by Dominic Nicholls, Associate Editor of the Telegraph and a former tank commander.
In the video, Nicholls predicts that it will take Russia 10 years to restore its army to the capability it had at the start of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine. History seems to indicate that it will take a lot less than 10 years:
· It took the Bolsheviks 1 to 2 years, between the defeat of the Imperial Russian Army in 1917, to organize an army that defeated its opponents during the Russian Civil War, to begin an offensive against Poland, that ended in 1921 by the Polish defeat of the Bolsheviks, known as “the Miracle on the Vistula.”
· It took the United States approximately 3 years, from having an Army equal in size to a mid-level European power, to launching Operation Torch, the landing on the shores of North Africa in November 1942.
· It took Ukraine 5 months, from having virtually no Army at the time of the Russian invasion of Crimea in February 2014, to nearly driving the Russians and their collaborators out of the Donbas.
After Ukraine’s victory, the West must be ready provide Ukraine with whatever is necessary to discourage Russia from trying to achieve in Ukraine with what they are now failing to achieve.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” covers Wagner’s estimated losses in and around Bakhmut, based on an interview that Prigozhin gave to a Russian military blogger. The estimate is 80,000, including 40,000 killed and an equal number of wounded. If this number is accurate then, by going against Western advice to withdraw from Bakhmut, Ukraine succeeded in bleeding out the toughest and most able unit of the Russian Armed Forces.
Reporting From Ukraine also said that this number is supported by the reduction in Wagner’s area of responsibility. Last winter, Wagner was able to capture Soledar, and it was responsible for around 85km. of the front line. At the time Prigozhin announced that Wagner is withdrawing from Bakhmut, their area of responsibility was down to 5km, consisting of the center of the City of Bakhmut.
In Bakhmut, Wagner is being replaced by units from the Donetsk People’s Republic, a far less capable formation. Ukraine will be back - soon.
In the interview, Prigozhin was entirely accurate, when he described the Ukrainian Armed Forces as the most capable in Europe, and if Russia’s objective was the de-militarization of Ukraine, they failed.
5/27/23 Sitrep
Sent yesterday, after a major Russian rocket attack against Kyiv –
“Although its been quiet in Kyiv because of the excellent work of the air defense the same cannot be said for Dnipro. When another Ukrainian city is attacked the first thing that comes is anger and then hope that the damage was contained.”
“Now that I have seen this war I'm no longer incredulous as I was during the destruction of Syria. At that time I simply couldn't understand how people could terrorize cities, bomb hospitals, and destroy critical infrastructure. Having seen this I'm beginning to believe a number of russian observers who state that russia historically and currently has thrived on hate. Those observers say that the average russian prefers to deprive his neighbor rather than work to be ahead of the neighbor.”
“It may be true that russia is an embodiment of the political philosophy of lowest common denominator. It may also be true that Trump admires Putin.”
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon May 24 to 12:00 noon May 25, 2023
N-OTE: This map describes russian attacks against civilian targets, designed to accomplish nothing more than terrorize the Ukrainian population.
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Saturday May 26
12:29 am: President of Brazil Lula da Silva refused to go to Russia at the invitation of Putin.
· He tweeted that he was ready to "negotiate with both sides of the conflict in search of peace." But the Brazilian leader still rejected the invitation to St. Petersburg.
8:02 am: Canada will hand over 4,800 assault rifles and a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine in the coming weeks - the Canadian government.
9:41 am: Ukraine requested long-range Taurus missiles from Germany, - Spiegel
· As the publication reports with reference to the speaker of the Ministry of Defense of the Federal Republic of Germany, the corresponding request was received by the department recently.
· Taurus long-range missiles are an analogue of Storm Shadow, previously transferred to Ukraine by Great Britain, and are capable of hitting targets at a distance of 500 km.
Friday May 25
4:49 pm: Serbian President Vučić put the army in a state of maximum readiness after the clashes of the Kosovo special forces with Serbs, - mass media.
5:15 pm: Special Representative of the People's Republic of China Li Hui, during his visit to Europe, called for a cease fire in Ukraine and to preserve the territories occupied by the Russian Federation.
· This was reported by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) with reference to Western officials.
· "Representatives of the European governments replied to the Chinese special representative that they see no prospects for settling the situation without the withdrawal of Russian troops," the report says.
6:11 pm: Vladimir Zelenskyi held a meeting with US Senator Lindsey Graham.
· "I thank Lindsay Graham for the meeting, steadfast position and contribution to strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities," the president wrote.
9:06 pm: Canada transfers 43 AIM-9 missiles from the arsenal of its Armed Forces to Ukraine to protect the sky from Russian attacks.
· Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand announced this.
· It is known that these will be the first air-to-air missiles from the Western allies.
11:08 pm Euractiv: Hungary's numerous violations of EU law make it ineligible for the 2024 rotating EU presidency.
· As the newspaper reports, the deputies of the European Parliament plan to adopt a resolution of this content next week.
NATIONAL
Saturday May 26
7:08 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russians continue to focus their main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Marin directions.
· In general, during the past day, 25 combat clashes took place on the specified areas of the front.
· In the Russian occupation forces, cases of non-compliance with commanders' orders and desertion are increasingly noted,
· So, on May 25, about 20 ex-prisoners who had recently undergone accelerated training and arrived to strengthen the unit located in the area of the settlement of Svatove, stole a KamAZ car and left in an unknown direction. At this time, their whereabouts have not been determined, the search is ongoing.
· For the past day, the aviation of the Defense Forces has struck 11 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation. Also, 5 Orlan-10 type reconnaissance UAVs and 2 Zala type UAVs were destroyed.
· Missile troops and artillery units hit 3 control points, 3 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, 2 ammunition depots, 2 artillery units in firing positions, 1 anti-aircraft defense device and 2 more important targets.
10:05 am: Head of the SBU Malyuk revealed the details of the bombing of the Crimean bridge and the drone attack on the Russian ship in Sevastopol
· "Regarding the situation with the Crimean fleet, namely the attack by water combat drones, the SBU was the author of that operational plan and implemented it," said Vasyl Malyuk.
· And the Crimean Bridge, Malyuk added, is a perfectly legitimate target, "a logistical route that we were obliged to cut off from the enemy."
Friday May 25
1:17 pm: The Supreme Court has elected a new chairman. He became the 56-year-old Stanislav Kravchenko, a judge of the Supreme Court since November 2017, and since December of the same year, the chairman of the Central Committee of the Supreme Court.
· 108 participants of the plenum voted for his candidacy.
4:15 pm: The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi signed two laws on improving the work of military medical commissions and issues of processing documents for the treatment of military personnel, - VRU.
5:34 pm: Court grants motion to compel biological samples from judge who killed a National Guardsman to today by running over him in his car.
· This was announced by the Kyiv City Prosecutor's Office on Facebook.
· It is known that earlier the judge refused to take an alcohol and drug test.
6:30 pm: Vadim Bondarenko, 23, a National Guardsman, died because of a traffic accident in Kyiv, — media.
· Vadym has three children left - two adopted children and a 2-year-old daughter.
· It is known that the boy's father is currently defending Ukraine in Donbas in the ranks of the Armed Forces.
6:51 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on May 26:
· "During the day, the enemy launched 18 rocket attacks on populated areas of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions using 10 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles (destroyed by our defenders).
· Twice a day, he used 8 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles in the city of Dnipro.
· In addition, the enemy carried out 60 airstrikes, using Iranian attack drones of the "Shahed" type on the cities of Merefa and Izyum of the Kharkiv region, and also used guided aerial bombs on Avdiivka and the village of New York.
· The enemy launched about 34 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
· Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population, a medical institution in the city of Dnipro, educational institutions in Izyum and New York, residential apartment buildings and private buildings were damaged.
· "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk directions.
· In total, 18 combat clashes took place on the indicated areas of the front."
· "Several dozen Russian servicemen have arrived in the temporarily captured Novopetrykivka of the Donetsk region to carry out so-called "counter-sabotage measures".
· Invaders search private houses, seize mobile devices, illegally take possession of local residents' vehicles."
· "During the day, the Air Force of the Defense Forces carried out 8 strikes on the areas of concentration of enemy personnel and military equipment.
· Units of missile troops and artillery hit 3 control points, 2 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, 1 ammunition depot, 2 artillery units in firing positions, 1 means of anti-aircraft defense and 1 more important target of the enemy.
7:50 pm: The judge, who hit a National Guardsman to death today, was informed of ccharges of committing a fatal traffic accident while intoxicated.
· This is reported by the Prosecutor General's Office.
· "Also, the prosecutor's office sent an appeal to the High Council of Justice with a request for consent to keep the judge in custody," the message reads.
9:20 pm: Ukraine’s Naval Forces received a small armored artillery boat "Bucha".
· This is reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces.
· It is known that Valery Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was present at the ceremony.
10:32 pm: Ukraine needs about 48 F-16 fighters to liberate the country from the aggressor.
· This was announced by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on Twitter.
10:51 pm: Cyber specialists of the Security Service with the help of kamikaze drones disabled two Grenader complexes and one Murom complex, reports the SBU press service.
· "The occupiers used them to monitor the territory, the movement of our troops around the clock, and adjust the enemy's artillery. But now they won't," the message says.
11:28 pm: U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham visited Kyiv.
· "The sooner long-range ATACMS missiles and cluster munitions are provided, the more territory you will be able to regain and the fewer lives will be lost," Graham said at the briefing, adding that these weapons could make "probable success on the frontline greater, save Ukrainian lives and accelerate withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine".
Mordor - Russia
Saturday May 26
12:10 am: A group of 39 former prisoners deserted in temporarily occupied Lysychansk. This is reported by the Russian mass media.
· The escape took place on May 24. The soldiers who escaped were members of the Storm Z squad. They escaped with weapons and killed at least one soldier.
12:50 am: Legion "Freedom of Russia" published a video of an operation in the Belgorod region, as well as footage of a clash with the Russian military.
9:09 am Institute for the Study of War: A decrease in the pace of Russian offensive operations is observed in the Bakhmut direction. It is likely that the Defense Forces will begin a new phase of operations and complicate the planned handover of Wagner positions to Russian units in Bakhmut.
· it may be difficult for Russian forces to replace the Wagner in Bakhmut due to successful limited and localized Ukrainian counterattacks.
10:58 am: the Russians urgently put to sea a missile carrier to the Black Sea. A possible salvo is up to 8 Calibers, said Serhiy Bratchuk, the spokesman of Odesa RMA.
Friday May 25
12:19 pm: The SBU detained a Russian informant who was spying on the positions of the Defense Forces in the south of Ukraine.
· The attacker turned out to be a resident of Mykolaiv, whom the Russian special service involved in secret cooperation at the beginning of this year.
· Investigators of the Security Service informed the detainee about the charge. He is currently in custody. The perpetrator faces up to 12 years in prison.
2:34 pm: According to the materials of the Security Service, the court seized the fishing trawler "Bukhta Sokolovskaya", which belongs to the holding of sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleksandr Verkhovsky.
· The cost of an industrial vessel is almost 1 billion hryvnias.
· It has been established that Verkhovsky belongs to the Kremlin's inner circle and is one of the biggest financial "donors" of the war against Ukraine.
KHARKIV
Saturday May 26
LUHANSK
Saturday May 26
DONETSK
Saturday May 26
10:49 am: NSDC Secretary Danilov confirmed that some "Wagner" forces are retreating from Bakhmut
· At the same time, he added that they will "regroup in three more places" and "this does not mean that they will stop fighting with us."
Friday May 25
12:14 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, Donetsk region.
1:40 pm: The day before, the Russians shot at the dam of the Karlvskyi Reservoir, as a result of which 6 settlements, where 981 people live, were at risk of flooding, - the head of the Donetsk RMA, Pavlo Kyrylenko.
· Yesterday, 26 people, including 8 children, were evacuated from the threatened area. In the morning, the situation stabilized, the water level is decreasing. Public transportation in the community works.
· Kyrylenko added that during the day the Russians shelled Velikonovosilkivska TG, Marinka, Georgiivka, Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove, Kostyantynivka, Illinivska TG, Chasovoyarska TG, Toretska TG.
3:23 pm: Russians dropped a FAB-250 bomb on New York in the Donetsk region. One person was injured.
· As Pavlo Kirylenko, the head of the Donetsk RMA, said, the town was hit this morning - 3 high-rise buildings, a nursery, a dispensary, a cinema hall and a gym were damaged.
8:21 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Mariupol, local residents report.
8:29 pm: Two powerful explosions were heard in the Azovstal region, the adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushchenko, reports.
· Smoke rises at the place of "arrival". Photo from local social networks.
ZAPORIZHIA
Saturday May 26
9:25 am: The night in Energodar passed without extraordinary events. As of this morning, the situation remains unchanged - the mayor of the temporarily occupied city, Dmytro Orlov.
9:47 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Berdyansk.
11:42 am: In the area of temporarily occupied Berdyansk, explosions rang out at the recreation centers "Khimik" and "Vesna", - Deputy Chairman of the Berdyansk District Council Viktor Dudukalov.
· According to him, Russian personnel were there.
· "And I think that during the last few such "actions" of the occupiers, the dead can be counted not by dozens, but by hundreds," Dudukalov added.
Friday May 25
12:01 pm Zaporizhzhya RMA: Russians hit the civilian sector of the city of Gulyaipole with artillery: residential buildings and farm buildings were destroyed.
· Currently, two women, aged 47 and 62, who were pulled out from under the rubble, are receiving medical assistance. Specialists are working to eliminate the consequences of the impact.
9:35 pm: Russians are preparing a provocation at the ZNPP: an imitation of an attack on the objects of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant with elements of leaking nuclear materials.
· Andriy Yusov, representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Ukraine, stated this.
· "For this purpose, the occupiers have already placed appropriate means of destruction on the territory of the ZNPP," Yusov noted.
9:49 pm: GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported details regarding the provocation of the Russians at the ZNPP:
· To provoke, an attack will be carried out directly on the territory of the ZNPP and an emergency leak of radioactive substances will be announced. Ukraine is traditionally blamed for the incident;
· In order to hide their actions as much as possible, the Russians disrupted the staff rotation of the permanent monitoring mission of the IAEA scheduled for today;
· The purpose of this action is to provoke the international community to conduct a detailed investigation during which all hostilities will be stopped.
11:46 pm: In the temporarily occupied Energodar, there has been no access to the Internet for more than 7 hours. This is reported by local social networks.
DNIPRO
Saturday May 26
9:25 am: The night in Energodar passed without extraordinary events. As of this morning, the situation remains unchanged - the mayor of the temporarily occupied city, Dmytro Orlov.
9:47 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Berdyansk.
11:42 am: In the area of temporarily occupied Berdyansk, explosions rang out at the recreation centers "Khimik" and "Vesna", - Deputy Chairman of the Berdyansk District Council Viktor Dudukalov.
· According to him, Russian personnel were there.
· "And I think that during the last few such "actions" of the occupiers, the dead can be counted not by dozens, but by hundreds," Dudukalov added.
Friday May 25
12:24 pm: In Dnipropetrovsk RMA showed the consequences of the Russian attack on the Dnipro.
12:27 pm Dnipro RMA: Two children are among the wounded in Dnipro. The boys are 3 and 6 years old.
· Both are hospitalized. Doctors assess their condition as moderate. 11 adults were also hospitalized. Two are "critical".
12:40 pm: There are already 16 injured in Dnipro, the Prosecutor General's Office reports.
· The agency added that in addition to the medical facility, the building of the veterinary clinic was also damaged, and private and apartment buildings were damaged.
12:44 pm: Fifty rescuers and 17 pieces of equipment are putting out the fire at the site of the missile attack in Dnipro, - the head of the RMA Serhiy Lysak.
· "The fire covered 1,000 square meters of the affected medical facility. The three-story building is partially destroyed. The flames are still being extinguished in the neighboring building. It has already been localized. The search for a person who may be under the rubble continues there," he said.
1:21 pm: The number of victims as a result of shelling of the Dnipro has increased to 23 people. The head of the RMA reported that 21 people are in hospital, three of them are in serious condition.
· The attack also killed a 69-year-old man who was just passing by when the Russian terrorists' rocket hit the city.
1:56 pm: The number of dead in Dnipro has increased by two people - a man's body was recovered from the rubble of the vet clinic, reported the head of RMA Serhiy Lysak.
2:39 pm: The number of victims due to the shelling of Dnipro has increased to 25 people, reported the first deputy head of Dnipropetrovsk RMA Volodymyr Orlov.
· According to him, 19 people are in hospital, three of them are in serious condition.
· He noted that the psychiatric clinic was working at the time of the attack, so it is not yet possible to talk about the exact number of dead. There is still no communication with the two doctors.
3:01 pm: Patrol police showed footage of the first minutes after the Russians hit the hospital in Dnipro.
3:36 pm: The emergency department extinguished the fires that arose due to the strike on the Dnipro.
· According to rescuers, the three-story building of the medical institution was partially destroyed. Fires broke out there, as well as in the nearby building and in the veterinary clinic.
3:50 pm: the Russians probably hit the Dnipro with S-300 or S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles, - the spokesman of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat.
· The mayor of Dnipro, Borys Filatov, said that the attack happened during the shift, otherwise there could be many more victims and victims.
4:34 pm: The number of victims in Dnipro has increased to 30.
· "There are already 30 victims, including two children. There is still no contact with three people who could be here," - wrote the head of Dnipropetrovsk RMA Serhiy Lysak.
5:50 pm: The number of victims in Dnipro has increased to 31 people.
· This was reported by the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Prosecutor's Office.
2:14 pm: Two enemy attack UAVs "Shahed-131/136" were destroyed yesterday by air defense forces in Mykolaiv Oblast, - the head of RMA Vitaly Kim.
· Last day, the town of Ochakiv of the Ochakivska hromada and the settlement of the Kutsurubsk hromada were hit by artillery fire.
· At night, Russian shelling was recorded outside the settlement of Pervomayska hromada.
Kherson
KYIV
Saturday May 26
11:58 am: Mayor of the Ukrainian capital Vitaliy Klitschko published a video on the eve of Kyiv Day, congratulating local residents on the holiday.
· "The heart of Ukraine beats here. We love our city! And - all together - we make the capital stronger, more beautiful and European. Happy birthday, Kyiv! You are the heart and soul of Ukraine!" Klitschko wrote.
SUMY
Saturday May 26
10:17 am: Explosions are heard in the Sumy region.
Friday May 25
1:00 pm: At night and in the morning, the Russians carried out 6 shellings of communities on the border of Sumy Oblast. 57 explosions were recorded, - RMA.
· Bilopolisk, Novoslobidsk, Velikopysarivsk, Shalyginsk communities came under fire.
· Previously - without losses among the civilian population and destruction of civil infrastructure.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
● https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
●
https://espreso.tv/
● https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka