Ukraine – 5/23/23 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
May 23, 2023
Quality of Russian Troops
“Old Soldiers: Why Russia’s Military is Being Destroyed in Ukraine” by Alexander Motyl. Motyl is a long-time authority on Ukraine and a professor at Rutgers University/Newark. The article is based on a poll taken from a survey of Russian prisoners in Ukrainian custody. The article states that all respondents were willing participants in the survey.
Three excerpts from the article:
· “Only 9.7% were 18-25 years old, while 14.6% were 46-50.”
· “As for place of residence, 21.7% hailed from Donetsk Oblast, 22.4% from Luhansk Oblast, 50.6% from Russia proper, and only 4.6% from Moscow and its province. With 44.1% coming from the occupied Donbas region, the Kremlin appears to have shifted the burden of fighting away from the Russian capital and to the separatist entities, the so-called Donetsk & Luhansk people’s republics.”
· Occupations: 16.2% served in the Donetsk people’s militia, 26% in the Luhansk people’s militia, 12.3% in the Wagner Group private military company, and 43.3% in the regular. Unsurprisingly, the numbers correlate with place of residence.
People from the Donetsk & Luhansk people’s militias have the reputation of being poor soldiers. This may explain why a relatively large number are POWs. The small number of respondents coming from the Moscow Region is likely a reflection of Russia’s efforts to protect “Russian Russians” from serving in Ukraine. Which brings me to the second article -
“Ukraine’s Defense Minister Addresses the Bashkirs: Take Your People Away From Ukraine, the Kremlin has Lost.”/Defense Minister Reznikov from Ukrainska Pravda. The Baskirs are Muslim, and they come from the Southern Ural Mountains. The Bashkirs are one of many ethnic minority groups that Russia is relying on to populate its Army fighting in Ukraine. For years, Ukrainian 5th Columnists have been working in Russia to sow discontent among these groups. It is hard to imagine that all the caskets coming back to Bashkir, Buryat, not to mention rural Russian communities, aren’t helping the cause.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” focuses almost exclusively on the Belgorod Incursion. Separately, there are reports of Russia pulling some of its troops off the line in Donetsk, to move them back to Belgorod. In allowing this incursion to begin from Ukrainian territory this is likely one of the developments Ukraine was hoping for. Also, Russian internal troops have been seen around Vulhedar, partly as blocking forces to discourage deserters. As a result, Russia may have very few options left to defend its own territory, other than redeploying troops now in Ukraine.
At around 9:20 into the “Latest Denys,” there is a clip of a tactical map showing a buildup of Ukrainian forces opposite Tokmak. This is one of the areas where the experts say that Ukraine’s major counteroffensive will come from. I don’t believe that there will be a “major counteroffensive.” Nevertheless, it gives Russia much to think about.
5/23/23 Sitrep (my comment in bold face)
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon May 22 to 12:00 noon May 23, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Tuesday May 23
12:29 am: EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell has warned Serbia that its ties with Russia are incompatible with the country's accession to the European Union.
● "Maintaining Serbia's ties with Russia is incompatible with its EU accession process, it also harms its own national interests," he said at the meeting of the EU Council at the level of foreign ministers.
● Borrell called on the country to align its foreign policy with EU policy and speed up internal reforms, as Ukraine is currently doing.
8:40 am Institute for the Study of War: The Russian information space reacted to the events of May 22 in the Belgorod region with the panic, factionalism and incoherence that it usually exhibits when it experiences significant information upheavals.
● The panic, anxiety and lack of cohesion in commenting on these events indicate that no one expected such a development.
● ISW notes that the first line of Russian defensive fortifications is 2 km from Hora Podol. There is an assumption that the RDC forces managed to break through it. This indicates the weakness of these fortifications and lack of professional personnel.
8:41 am: US Congress postpones discussion of allocation of funds to Ukraine amid uncertainty over raising national debt ceiling and Ukrainian counteroffensive, - The Hill.
8:42 am: France plans to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, -France 24.
10:22 am: The Netherlands may become the first country to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv, Politico quoting defense minister adviser Yuri Sak
Monday May 22
12:09 pm: Ukrainian pilots have started training on the F-16, said the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell.
● "It's a good idea, it's good words about what came from the G7, that they finally decided to lay the groundwork to provide Ukraine with the jet fighters it needs," Borrell said when asked about the G7's decision on F-16s for Ukraine .
12:26 pm: The Speaker of the Parliament of Moldova, Ihor Grosu, sent a request to the government to prepare a draft decision on the country's withdrawal from the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the CIS.
● This was reported by the press service of the legislative body.
3:52 pm: The NATO Parliamentary Assembly unanimously recognized Russia's crimes against Ukraine as genocide, and the Russian regime as racism.
● This was announced by the head of the permanent delegation of Ukraine to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Yehor Chernev.
● The assembly also called on the governments of their countries to openly announce at the summit in Vilnius that Ukraine will become a member of NATO and to agree on the next concrete steps for Ukraine's accession to the Alliance.
4:35 pm: The West is preparing Israel-style security guarantees for Ukraine — The Wall Street Journal with reference to Polish President Andrzej Duda.
● According to Duda, NATO is currently developing strong security guarantees for Ukraine, which will include the transfer of weapons and military technology.
● The United States should become the main guarantor, Great Britain, Germany and France will also act as guarantors.
8:05 pm: American actor Sean Penn will star in the final short story of the Ukrainian film almanac "War Through the Eyes of Animals" by Ukrainian director Myroslav Slaboshpytskyi, the project's producers are Oleg Kohan and Oleksiy Makukhin.
● Sean Penn will act as a sound producer. Filming of the novel will take place in Ukraine and Los Angeles in the summer of 2023.
● This story will be one of nine short films made by different directors and combined into one film almanac "War through the eyes of animals". The heroes of each novel will be animals that ended up in Ukraine during the war.
8:24 pm: Kazakhstan did not approve the appointment of the former head of the Luhansk OVA, Serhii Gaidai, as ambassador to the country.
● This was reported by the publication "Dzerkalo Tyzhnia" with reference to its own sources.
● According to the publication, the Kazakh side made it clear that it would like to see a professional diplomat take the place of the ambassador of Ukraine in Kazakhstan.
9:57 pm: Delivery of F-16s to Ukraine is a priority for the US, the implementation of the plan will begin in the coming months.
● This was stated by US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
● According to Miller, the United States does not approve of the use of American weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation, but he noted that "in this context, it should be remembered that it was Russia that started this war and is continuing it."
10:09 pm: The Netherlands is ready to start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters soon.
● This is reported by RTL Nieuws with reference to the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, Wopke Hoekstra.
● According to the publication, the minister plans to consult with his colleagues from the EU regarding this issue.
11:00 pm: Portugal is ready to help the Armed Forces with spare parts for F-16 aircraft, Portuguese Foreign Minister Juan Gómez Cravinho said, — Diário de Notícias.
11:24 pm: Ukraine is ready to talk about a peaceful plan to settle the war with everyone, if it is based on two principles: the territories of Ukraine should not be transferred to Russia, and the war itself cannot be frozen now.
● This was stated by the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, on the air of the national telethon.
● According to him, Ukraine's "peace formula" has the best prospects now.
NATIONAL
Tuesday May 23
7:13 am: Preliminary. That night, the Russians used up to 4 Shaheds for strikes, all of them were shot down. The information is being clarified, - General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● In total, during the past day, the enemy launched 20 missile strikes. Air-based cruise missiles, Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles were used in the cities of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions. In addition, it carried out 48 airstrikes using Iranian strike UAVs "Shahed". Also, he fired about 90 rounds from the RSZV.
● the Russians continue to concentrate their main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsky directions - more than 30 combat clashes took place. Bakhmut and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities,
● Over the past day, the Air Force of the Defense Forces carried out 8 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation, as well as 2 on anti-aircraft missile complexes,
● During the past day, our defenders destroyed 4 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles, a Russian Mi-24 attack helicopter, 23 "Shahed" attack drones and 9 reconnaissance UAVs. Missile troops and artillery units hit 4 control points, 3 concentration areas weapons and military equipment, 4 ammunition depots, 11 artillery pieces, a radar station and 3 electronic warfare stations.
8:26 am: Air defense forces destroyed 6 Russian attack UAVs "Shahed-136/131" and 2 reconnaissance UAVs "Merlin-VR" during the night - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
9:12 am: Volodymyr Zelenskyi congratulated the military on the Day of the Marines of Ukraine.
● "Prepared for actions on land, from the sea and from the air, Ukrainian marines successfully perform complex tasks. Motivated, strong, brave. The enemy strongly feels the power of our soldiers. Thank you for defending our homeland!
● We will always remember the heroes who gave their lives for the future of our country," the president writes.
9:47 am: By the end of this year, resettled people in Ukraine will receive payments, - the head of the Ministry of Reintegration, Iryna Vereshchuk.
● According to her, it is impossible to claim that the majority of IDPs have already gained financial independence, so the state should give them the opportunity to get back on their feet.
10:49 am: Nearly half a million more dollars, which were hidden by the participants in the case under the suspicion of the head of the Supreme Court Vsevolod Knyazev, have been seized — the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine.
● NABU and SAP are currently investigating the source and ownership of these funds.
Monday May 22
1:46 pm: Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar reported that the situation in Bakhmut has not changed much since yesterday.
● "We remember that yesterday the Armed Forces remained in control of certain infrastructural, industrial facilities, and the private sector in the southwestern district. This is the Litaka district. Today, we also remain in control of this part of the city. Fighting continues," - she said.
● In addition, the Russians are literally cleaning up the territories they have taken control of in the city. Yes, they are looking to see if our subversive groups have suddenly remained there, which can resist and carry out certain actions.
4:17 pm: The Ukrainian military destroyed a Russian Mi-24 helicopter, reported the 24th OMBr named after King Danylo.
● "Today, with the forces and means of the Royal Brigade, an enemy Mi-24 attack helicopter was eliminated," the message reads.
4:56 pm press service of the SBU: According to the SBU materials, the Metropolitan of the UOC (MP) from Bukovyna received the suspicion.
● The Security Service and the National Police exposed the abbot of the Holy Ascension Men's Monastery of the Chernivtsi-Bukovyna Diocese of the UOC (MP) for inciting inter-religious enmity.
● During liturgies, he spoke disparagingly of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, calling it the "antichrist" and "satanic church".
7:03 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces as of 18:00 on May 22:
● "In general, during the day, the enemy launched 21 rocket attacks on the cities of Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and populated areas of Kharkiv region.
● The attack was carried out using 4 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles (destroyed by our defenders), 5 Kh-22 cruise missiles, 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 5 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 4 others (type is established)".
● "In addition, the enemy carried out 42 airstrikes, in particular, using Iranian strike UAVs "Shahed".
● According to updated information, 21 out of 21 were destroyed by our defenders. Also, the occupiers launched about 50 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● Unfortunately, there are injuries among the civilian population, residential apartment buildings, private houses, a kindergarten and other civilian infrastructure have been damaged."
● "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk directions.
● In general, during the day, 25 combat clashes took place on the specified areas of the front, Bakhmut and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities."
● "During the day, the Air Force of the Defense Forces carried out 8 strikes on the areas of concentration of enemy personnel and military equipment, as well as 2 - on anti-aircraft missile complexes.
● Our defenders destroyed a Russian Mi-24 attack helicopter and an enemy reconnaissance UAV during the day."
● "Units of missile forces and artillery hit 3 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, 3 ammunition depots, 11 artillery means and the enemy's radar station."
8:44 pm: The Ukrainian military destroyed more than 2 companies of Russian occupiers and 6 enemy ammunition depots in a day in the Tavria direction.
● Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the operational-strategic group of troops "Tavria", reports this.
● "39 units of the enemy's weapons and military equipment were destroyed and damaged," said Tarnavskyi.
Mordor - Russia
Tuesday May 23
12:02 am: "arrival" at the FSB building in Belgorod, rosZMI reports.
9:56 am: In the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation, a strong fire broke out, - rosZMI.
● Smoke in the city of Dyatkovo can be seen several kilometers from the place of ignition, local residents report.
10:12 am: Internet providers and ATMs are not working in Luhansk and a number of neighboring cities, — rosZMI.
● The reason for the failure is not reported.
10:35 am Institute for the Study of War: For the Russian Federation, the situation in Bakhmut is particularly vulnerable.
● The hyper-focus on claims of victory in Bakhmut diverts attention from the volatile military situation for Russia in and around the city, emphasizing the influence of founder Wagner Prigogine on the Russian information space.
11:50 am: Russia will use incidents in Belgorod region to victimize itself, British intelligence
● The Russian Federation faces an increasingly multifaceted security threat in its border regions: the loss of fighter jets, attacks by improvised explosive devices on railway lines, and now direct guerrilla actions.
Monday May 22
1:26 pm: Roman Protasevich, one of the founders of the opposition Belarusian Telegram channel NEXTA, who was previously sentenced to 8 years in a prison under a strict regime, was allegedly pardoned, BelTA writes.
· From this account in the New York Times, Protasevich seems to have been turned by Belarus. The article mentions that he has disavowed his relationships with Sofia Sapega, his former girlfriend with whom he was first arrested when the plane they were traveling on was forced down when transiting Belarusian airspace, and he now has a relationship with another women. It is a mystery of how someone who was supposedly doing hard time in solitary confinement could meet another woman. Meanwhile Sapega was sentenced to 6 years in prison. In fairness to Protasevich, he has made previous appearances that indicate that he’d been abused while in prison. No one who has been in a situation similar to what Protasevich found himself, can truly say how he or she woulr react.
2:27 p.m.: "A subversive reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has entered the territory of Graivoronsk district and is taking the necessary measures to eliminate the enemy," said Gladkov, the governor of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation.
2:35 p.m.: Videos of what is happening in the Belgorod region are published on social networks. We are waiting for details.
2:56 pm: The head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, addressed the Russian servicemen and urged them to surrender, because "it will be even worse."
3:09 pm: The Legion "Freedom of Russia" and the "RDK" are conducting an operation on the territory of the Belgorod region to create a "security strip" to protect Ukrainian civilians, said Andriy Yusov, spokesman for the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Ukraine.
● According to him, the operation is carried out exclusively by citizens of Russia.
5:50 pm: A Russian Mi-8 helicopter crashed in Prokhorovka, Belgorod region, — rosZMI.
6:10 pm: In the Belgorod region, a legal regime against a terrorist operation has been introduced, reports the governor of the region, Gladkov.
6:44 pm: The Russians are carrying out an urgent evacuation of nuclear munitions from a storage facility located in the Belgorod region.
● Andriy Yusov, spokesman for the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Ukraine, stated this.
● According to him, everything that is currently happening on the territory of the Russian Federation is an internal conflict.
7:30 pm: Most of the population of the border villages of Graivoron and the city itself have left the territory, said the governor of the Belgorod region, Gladkov.
● "The situation here continues to be extremely tense," he said.
● 7:57 pm Social Networks: The flag of the "Freedom of Russia" Legion was spotted in Moscow.
9:05 pm: 22 commandos of the Russian "Storm" group were captured by 7 scouts from 59 OMPBr.
● This was announced by the commander of the separate tactical group of air reconnaissance "Birds of Magyar".
9:16 pm: According to preliminary information, the RDK has already taken a prisoner during operations in the Belgorod region.
10:27 pm: In Voronezh, a warehouse of plastic products on an area of 200 square meters is on fire. m, - rosZMI.
11:28 pm: A loud explosion was heard in Belgorod, Russia. This is reported by local mass media.
KHARKIV
Tuesday May 23
7:59 am: Explosions are heard in Kharkiv, subscribers report. We are waiting for official information.
Monday May 22
1:10 pm Kharkiv RMA: Russian military fired another attack on Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, two women were hospitalized with injuries.
● Private houses and civil infrastructure were damaged in the city.
4:01 pm Kharkiv RMA: Explosions are heard in Kharkiv.
5:30 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kharkiv region.
DONETSK
Tuesday May 23
11:04 am: Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar stated that the Armed Forces control the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut
● Hanna Malyar reported that the activity of offensive actions of the Russian army in the Bakhmut direction decreased somewhat during the day. However, the number of shelling remains consistently high.
● According to her data, on the flanks to the north and south of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army is making minor progress.
Monday May 22
3:31 pm press service of the SBU: the SBU detained an enemy informant during counter-sabotage measures in the front-line areas of Donetsk region.
● The attacker collected intelligence for the occupiers about the locations of bases and movements of the Defense Forces in the Bakhmut direction.
● First of all, she tried to establish the coordinates of firing positions, fortifications and air defense systems of the Ukrainian defenders.
9:28 pm: The Ukrainian military in the Bakhmut district of the Donetsk region has advanced another 200-400 meters in some places over the last day.
● This was reported by the spokesman of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhiy Cherevaty.
● According to him, the Russians continue to try to completely capture Bakhmut - this is their priority goal.
ZAPORIZHIA
Tuesday May 23
9:32 am Zaporizhia RMA: the Russians struck 94 strikes on 20 settlements in the region.
● In addition, 88 artillery shells were fired at Gulyaipol, Orikhov, Zaliznychny, Olhivskyi, Shcherbaky, Plavnyi, Kamianskyi, Stepnohirsk and other villages near the front. The population was not affected.
● So far, 18 civilian destroyed objects have been recorded.
Monday May 22
12:51 pm: Specialists have restored the power transmission line that supplies the Zaporizhzhya NPP, Ukrenergo.
● The station switches to power supply from the Ukrainian power system.
Kherson
Tuesday May 23
7:46 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
10:34 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Oleshki, Kherson region.
Monday May 22
12:42 pm: According to Kherson RMA, the Russians shelled peaceful settlements in the Kherson region 57 times.
● Kherson was attacked 4 times, firing 22 shells into the city. They targeted the residential quarters of the population centers of the region, as well as the objects of social and critical infrastructure of Beryslav district. One person died.
2:05 pm: Russian troops shelled Stanislav in the Kherson region. A 45-year-old man died. During the shelling, he was repairing his damaged house, said Oleksandr Prokudin, head of Kherson OVA.
9:31 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Berislav district of the Kherson region.
10:39 pm Kherson RMA: the Russian army attacked Kachkarivka of the Myliv community.
● As a result of the shelling, one person was injured. The victim was hospitalized, doctors are providing him with the necessary assistance.
KYIV
Tuesday May 23
11:19 am: Military exercises will be held in Kyiv on May 23-25, the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced.
● "The movement of personnel and the movement of heavy equipment will be carried out," the statement reads.
● Residents are asked to remain calm and not to report on social networks any movement of equipment and personnel.
CHERKASY
Tuesday May 23
11:36 am: The SBU detained a Russian agent in Cherkasy while he was correcting an enemy attack on the city
● He collected intelligence on the locations and movements of the Ukrainian military and air defense systems on the territory of Ukraine.
● The perpetrator faces life imprisonment.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka