Bob Homans May 18

20220518

Ukraine – 5/18 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 18, 2022

A Visit to Bucha

Yesterday I spoke with Anna Reid, author of “Borderland – A Journey Through the History of Ukraine.”  Anna has been coming to both Ukraine and Russia for close to 30 years.  “Borderland” was the first book I read about Ukraine, and I highly recommend it to anyone who is interested in the history, something that is playing out today.   She wrote a 2nd Edition in 2015, to cover the Revolution of Dignity. 

Anna is now at work on a 3rd Edition of “Borderland.”   As part of her work on the new edition, Anna recently visited Ukraine, including Kyiv and Bucha.    I asked her for her impressions of her visit to Ukraine as well as her assessment of what is going on inside Russia.

Regarding Russia, Anna said that she's not nearly as concerned about Ukraine's prospects, as she is about Russia's prospects.    Russians have been lied to for years, and very few of the soldiers fighting in Ukraine are from Moscow & St. Petersburg.  The leadership doesn't want coffins coming back to the larger cities.   Most of them are from small towns, many without indoor plumbing, or ethnic minority areas in Siberia.   She's not expecting an uprising, however, but she feels the people there, most of them, have no real prospects.  

She went to Bucha, and she said she saw everything including the bodies on the streets.  She's the first person with whom I have spoken, who has been there.  She said it is far worse than what is portrayed on TV.  I can only imagine what the stench was like.  

I asked her about a report I had heard, that most of the atrocities that had taken place in Bucha were carried out by Russian Army units from Buryatia, a minority region close to Mongolia.  She said that she didn’t believe that was the case, that the atrocities were carried out by both Buryat units as well as Russian units.   Anna said that she had been to Buryatia, when she was working on another book, about Russian ethnic minorities called “The Shamen’s Coat.”   She said that she found the Buryats she met with to be very gentle and outgoing people.   War has a way of bringing out the worst in people.

She said that she spoke to some of the people involved in de-mining in Bucha, some of whom have worked in Syria and other conflict zones.  They told her that Bucha was as bad as they've ever seen.   There are also a lot of those unexploded bomblets lying around, the size of tennis balls.  They look very innocuous; easy for a kid to pick up.  

Ukrainians are no strangers to mines.  When visiting my brother-in-law’s dacha a few years ago, I said I was going to go for a walk.   He advised me to stay on the paths, so as not to step on unexploded mines – from WW-II.

She said that she also visited the destroyed shopping center, called Retroville.   Retroville happens to be around a 10-minute walk to where we live when we’re in Kyiv.  She said that the adjacent buildings were intact, but windows were blown out.   We are hoping that our place is far enough away from the blast.

Bucha is a close-in bedroom community for Kyiv, not an upscale leafy suburb, but a combination of a working and upper middle-class suburb that one routinely finds near major cities in both Europe and the US.   By raping Bucha and destroying Retroville, Russia has struck at the professional class in Ukraine, and what Ukraine is becoming.

The Famous “Land Bridge” to Crimea

The “Land Bridge,” along the shore of the Sea of Azov from Mariupol to Crimea, has been seen by the pundits as a major goal of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.   It is said that the Land Bridge will allow unfettered access between Russia and Crimea.

In January 2015 I heard an expert say that to secure the Land Bridge it would require approximately 50,000 Russian troops, and the Land Bridge itself, being a narrow strip of territory, would be open to continuous hit & run attacks by Ukrainian partisans.   The attacks have already started.

Recently in Melitopol, partisans partly destroyed a Russian armored train.   Russian officials and Russian Army officers have been assassinated, in both Melitopol and Kherson.   Russian soldiers have been quoted as wanting to get out.  Whether or not there is a ceasefire, and I doubt there will ever be one, and whether this region is illegally incorporated into Russia, the attacks will continue for as long as Russians are present on Ukrainian territory.

It is wise to remember that after the end of WW-II, in Western Ukraine and especially the Carpathians Ukrainian partisans fought the Soviets until the early 1950’s.   Back then, they managed to continue fighting, without the benefit of a land border with a friendly country or the kinds of weapons that today’s partisans now possess.

5/18 Sitrep

Beginning with Covid through to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, more and more attention is being paid to logistics.  Particularly to logistical disruption.  Logistic disruption in Ukraine is unique but plays into the global picture.

As Russia sees battlefield losses increasing, its focus on disrupting Ukraine’s domestic and international logistics grows.  For Russia the only hope of achieving any semblance of a “victory” requires isolating Ukraine from international supplies of arms and munitions.  Tactically Russia started disabling Ukraine’s domestic diesel and gasoline infrastructure in the third week when it was clear that Kyiv was out of reach.  Concurrently it mined the Black Sea cutting off Ukraine internationally.  The initial concerted effort on logistics disruption lasted no more than ten days.

Instead of following up its first round of rocket and missile attacks on fuel infrastructure with attacks on other critical logistics infrastructure, Russia went back to trying to terrorize Ukraine into submission.  This was the great strategic shift from the “northern front” to the “southeastern front”. 

The tactics in the south are no different from the north.  Columns of Battalion Tactical Groups trying to take population centers.  The columns halt when encountering opposition and engage in mortar and artillery shelling to destroy civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian forces.  Behind the line of engagement indiscriminate terror and deportation of Ukrainian civilians.

Ukrainian defensive and counter offensive measures are no different as well.  Put a few men and some equipment in front of the advancing column to take out the lead.  Once halted, strengthen defensive barriers and begin behind front ambushes and counterattacks on weak defensive positions in the line.  Result similar Russians withdrew from Kharkiv.

Having lost two of three fronts, and facing increasing erosion on the southern front, Russia suddenly remembered or realized that Ukraine, while seriously short of arms and munitions, constantly received the minimum required to continue fighting.  Therefore, Russia resumes attacking logistics infrastructure - this time railroad junctions. 

Russia could win if it focused on logistics and other infrastructure Ukraine’s armed forces rely on. However, Russia is not fighting a war.  Russia is using military force to destroy Ukraine.  Because this is its goal it did not seek to establish air control, destroy Ukraine’s capacity to fight, or develop a winning military strategy.

Fortunately for Ukraine the Russian invasion, down to specific battles, is managed personally by Putin.  Just as with Hitler in the Battle of Britain, who thought it was more important to terrorize the British than defeating the RAF, Putin is doing the same.  Unfortunately for Ukraine Russia’s  complete defeat will still take some time.

INTERNATIONAL

State Department: The United States has announced the creation of a project to collect open-source evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

The Washington Post: Poland and the Baltic states are asking to deploy additional NATO forces on their territory due to the Russian threat.

CNN: The US and allies are working on routes for the export of grain from Ukraine.  At the same time, the US administration, together with international partners, is considering "a wide range of options for the safe export of food by rail, sea and air".

Defense Minister:  Bulgaria has sufficient capabilities to repair Ukrainian military equipment

Bloomberg:  Turkey, in exchange for its consent to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, demands that these countries recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization, lift the arms embargo on Turkey and lift sanctions for the anti-aircraft missile system bought by Turkey from Russia С-400.

''Schemes'': Based on satellite images, the Russian Federation uses the civil airport of Belgorod to accommodate military equipment and aircraft.  According to journalists, there are: 8 helicopters on the territory of the airport; vehicles and tents where personnel can be located, or combat kits or fuel can be stored.

Deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation: Russia will not allow the outbreak of a third world war, but in the event of an attack on the country, it will give a super-powerful response.

Bloomberg: The United States are ready to completely deprive the Russian Federation of the opportunity to make payments on bonds after May 25.  The US Treasury will cancel the "general license". This can even more quickly provoke a default of the Russian Federation.

Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation:  Investigators will interrogate Ukrainian defenders evacuated from 'Azovstal'.

State Duma of the Russian Federation: Wants to ban the exchange of the military of the Azov regiment for Russian POWs.  Nazi criminals should not be exchanged, we must do everything to bring them to justice. They will consider a draft resolution banning the exchange of "Nazi criminals", particularly the Ukrainian military regiment "Azov"

'Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung':  The European Commission has developed a plan for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine and will adopt the document tomorrow.  The plan for the restoration of Ukraine has been called Rebuild Ukraine" and hundreds of billions of euros will be spent on it, although the exact figure is not called.  The plan implies that the restoration of the destroyed infrastructure in the country will take more than 10 years, and the allocated funds will be associated with strict compliance by Ukraine with the conditions for reforms.

'Meduza':  Yandex is looking for buyers for Russian assets - a search engine, mail and the 'Kinopoisk' service.  Immediately after the release of the publication, the press service of Yandex stated that "there are no plans to split the company."

Newsweek: Estonian President We cannot completely isolate Russia. "We need to look for ways to communicate in other ways and do some business. But it will take time, and it may even take decades."

New Zealand imposed sanctions against 27 individuals and legal entities from Belarus in connection with the Russian attack on Ukraine.  Oleksandr Lukashenko and a number of officials of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus fell under the sanctions. Also, restrictions were imposed on 4 legal entities: Goskomvoenprom, Synesis, OKB TSP and Defense Initiatives.

Česká televize: The Czech Republic wants to extend the state of emergency until the end of June due to the influx of refugees from Ukraine. The House of Representatives will consider the government proposal on Thursday. 

CNN:  AerCap Holdings, the aviation leasing giant that is the world's largest jet owner, lost 113 jets when Russia seized them in retaliation for sanctions triggered by the Ukraine war

The EU High Representative said that the EU will not allow a situation in which Ukraine will run out of weapons and military equipment at a critical moment of hostilities in the Donbas.

Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation asked the Supreme Court to recognize the 'Azov' association as a terrorist organization and ban its activities. A hearing will be held on May 26.

Reuters:  G7 plans to provide Ukraine with 15 billion euros in aid, according to a senior German official.

Yle:  The Parliament of Finland voted for the country's entry into NATO. 188 in favor, 8 against, 3 abstained.

Putin:  Changes in the oil market are tectonic, it is now impossible to do business as before.  Europe is imposing more and more new sanctions on the oil and gas market for absolutely political reasons and under pressure from the American overlord.  The European countries are setting the task of abandoning Russian energy carriers, not paying attention to the damage to their own economy.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: The Russian Federation will be forced to take compensatory measures in connection with the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, no one will benefit from this.

Bloomberg: The European Union said that gas companies would violate sanctions if they opened bank accounts in rubles to buy Russian gas.

The largest Italian oil and gas company Eni has begun the procedure for opening accounts with 'Gazprombank' to pay for Russian gas in rubles.  This is the first company to officially announce such a decision. Eni claims that this does not contradict the existing sanctions against the Russian Federation.

Reuters: The French company Engie will pay Gazprom for Russian gas in euros, said the company's CEO.

The Finnish state energy company Gasum refused to pay for gas in rubles and is filing a lawsuit against Gazprom in the International Arbitration on this demand.

Spiegel: Germany delivered an additional batch of weapons to Ukraine. There are no "heavy" weapons in the new tranche.  Ukraine received 2,450 disposable RGW-90 anti-tank grenade launchers, 1,600 DM22 anti-tank grenade launchers and 3,000 DM31 anti-tank mines.

Press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation:  "Any war ends in peace, and this world will be one where our voice will be heard, where we will be comfortable, safe, and where we will confidently stand on our own feet."

The Wall Street Journal: UN Secretary General proposes easing Russian sanctions if it Russia allows Ukrainian grain exports.

BNR: Bulgaria wants an exception from an European Union embargo on Russian because it does not want to default on existing supply contracts which are slated to run for another 2 years.

NATIONAL

For the first time in Ukraine, the Russian Terminator tank support vehicle was used in Ukraine. Residents of the Luhansk region captured it on video. The unit costs about $ 2.3 million. Designed to suppress the enemy's manpower with grenade launchers, anti-tank systems and small arms.

British Intelligence Update:

●        In attempting to overcome Ukrainian resistance, Russia has made significant use of auxiliary personnel. This includes a deployment of Chechen forces, likely consisting of several thousand fighters primarily concentrated in the Mariupol and Luhansk sectors.

●        Kadyrov likely maintains close personal oversight of the deployment, while his cousin Adam Delimkhanov has likely acted as the Chechen field commander in Mariupol.

●        The combat deployment of such disparate personnel demonstrates Russian's significant resourcing problems in Ukraine and is likely contributing to a disunited command which continues to hamper Russia's operations.

Chief Rabbi of Kyiv and Ukraine decided to obtain Ukrainian citizenship.   “I thought about this (obtaining Ukrainian citizenship - ed.) before, but what is happening in Ukraine now gave me an impetus to resolve this issue ... Next week I will be in Ukraine and I hope that we will start this process”  Dov Bleich said.

Economy Minister: Ukraine has suspended state regulation of gasoline prices and agreed with operators on the maximum price.The government expects that the maximum prices for diesel fuel will not exceed UAH 58/l, and for gasoline - UAH 52/l. In case of abuses by gas stations, they promise to impose sanctions.

State Border Guard Service:  Yesterday, May 17, Ukrainian border guards recorded 7 cases of the use of weapons by Russians on the border with Ukraine within the Sumy region and 2 cases in the Chernihiv region.

Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court:  42 investigators, forensic experts and employees of the International Criminal Court arrived in Ukraine to investigate Russian war crimes.

Territorial Defense Headquarters:  The territorial defense forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine currently number about 110,000 people.

Prime Minister:  The EU has opened special corridors for the supply of fuel to Ukraine.  The number of fuel trucks that transport fuel to Ukraine has increased by a third daily compared to the beginning of May against the backdrop of its shortage at gas stations.

●        The German government will provide another 150 million euros to support Ukraine.  These funds will be used to finance priority social spending and the restoration of the country.

Ministry of Defense:  There can be no other formula for rescuing the military from Azovstal than the one currently in use.  The defenders of Mariupol have been given a new order to save their lives.  Ukraine is forced to take such a step.

●        There is still a possibility of air strikes across the entire territory of Ukraine. If until February 24 it was believed that there was almost no Ukrainian air defense, now we state that the Russian Federation has no advantages in the air. It is thanks to the work of air defense.

●        In the areas of Bakhmut, Klynove, Soledar and Volchoyarka, the Russian troops launched missile and bomb strikes from Su-35 aircraft.

●        In the Severodonetsk direction, with the support of artillery, the Russians are trying to launch an offensive in the direction of the settlements of Borovenky and Severodonetsk.

●        In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy tried to break through the defenses of our troops, but failed and retreated.

●        In the Bakhmut and Severodonetsk directions, Russia has concentrated up to fifteen helicopters in the Luhansk region for air support of offensive operations.

●        In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy carried out assault operations in order to take control of the section of the Novobakhmutivka – Novoselivka Druha road, without success

●        In the Kurakhivka direction, with the support of artillery and aviation fire, the Russian troops are attacking the settlement of Novomykhailivka, the fighting continues.

●        Russian units also made an unsuccessful offensive attempt in the direction of the settlement of Mariinka.

●        In Crimea, measures are being taken to restore the combat capability of Russian units that have suffered significant losses.

●        In June-July, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on a counteroffensive and recapture all the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

●        In 80 days of a full-scale war, the Ukrainian military completely destroyed 17 Russian BTGs. Despite the losses, the Russians still outnumber Ukraine in heavy weapons - aviation, armored vehicles, MLRS and artillery.

●        The war is moving into a protracted phase. In the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, the Russian troops are carrying out engineering and fortification work in order to go on the defensive.

●        The total grouping of Russian troops, used against Ukraine, is about 167,000 personnel, including reserves.  91 battalion tactical groups are directly deployed, and another 55 can be drawn from the reserve after restoration within 1-2 months.

Ukrainian Intelligence Service:  SІU neutralized a Russian intelligence network, which was supposed to ensure the penetration of Russian saboteurs into Mykolaiv.

●        The service exposed a Russian-controlled enterprise in the Kyiv region.

Ukrainian Ombudsman:  Russian troops purposefully destroy hospitals in the Luhansk region. All medical facilities have been destroyed and damaged.

●        More than 3,000 civilian residents of Mariupol are being held by Russian soldiers in the "filtration prison" - the former correctional colony No. 52 in the village of Olenevka, Donetsk region. Among the hostages there are about 30 volunteers who tried to bring humanitarian aid to Mariupol and save the residents.

●        In occupied Luhansk, the Russian military is conducting forced mobilization. For refusing to fight against Ukraine, Russians threaten men with execution.

Presidential Office:  The negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation are suspended.

●        Twitter: Zelenskyi said that he had had productive talks with German Chancellor Scholz."The focus is on the situation at the front, continued pressure on the Russian Federation, increased sanctions, prospects for achieving peace."

Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine: Ukraine, Poland and Slovenia have agreed on the mutual recognition of electronic signatures.

●        Ukraine for the first time received two important awards in the field of cybersecurity CYBERSEC Award: for the heroic resistance to Russian aggression and the protection of the digital borders of the democratic world.

Military Intelligence:  Russian commanders are being punished by the Kremlin for defeats in Ukraine.

●        To create fakes, Russia is trying to attract foreign media. Realizing that the world community no longer believes the messages of Russian TV channels, the Kremlin propagandists decided to involve European journalists and world media in their activities.  ️From May 18 to May 21, the Russians plan to show the destroyed areas of Mariupol to the media. To blame Ukraine for the destruction of the city and the massacres of civilians, fragments of Ukrainian ammunition have already been brought to Mariupol.

●        The commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Vice Admiral Igor Osipov, was removed and arrested for the loss of the cruiser Moskva.

LUHANSK

Luhansk Regional Military Administration:  30 adults and 6 children were evacuated from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the Russian troops fired on the bus as it was leaving.

●        The Russians are trying to make breakthroughs in the Popasnaya and Severodonetsk direction. They have intensified shelling of the civilian population; the mountain community is on fire.

●        The Armed Forces of Ukraine are doing everything possible to prevent the Russians from crossing the river (Severskyi Donets - ed.), create a foothold for the offensive and cut us off from the "road of life.

●        Russian troops continue to bring equipment to the region. In particular, in various captured settlements, the Russians installed 'Pantsir' anti-aircraft missile and gun systems.

DONETSK

Donetsk Regional Military Administration:  Air missile attack on Avdiivka damaged 3 residential buildings; seriously wounding a 9-year-old, one killed.

●        Russian aviation attacked the Knauf Ukraine enterprise.  The premises of the enterprise were damaged by the bombs, a fire broke out. Rescuers of the State Emergency Service are trying to put it out. There were no casualties.

●        7 civilians were killed as a result of the shelling of the Donetsk region by Russian troops today, 6 more people were injured.

●        The Armed Forces of Ukraine pushed back the Russians from Vuhledar and Bolshaya Novoselka

WHO Incidents Manager for Ukraine: Due to the poor quality of drinking water, Mariupol is threatened with a cholera outbreak. According to her, residents of other temporarily occupied settlements, where water supply has only partially been restored, may also suffer from the disease.

Adviser to the mayor: The Russian Federation wants to provide ""patronage"" over Mariupol to the Chechens.  "Mariupol turned out to be too unfriendly and nationalistic. Therefore, in order to intimidate and suppress resistance, it is planned to give the city to the “Kadyrovtsy.”

●        The Russian invaders hide the real number of dead Ukrainians found the drama theater of Mariupol - they announced only 12 victims.  “Even according to the minimal scenario, more than 300 (people died there – ed.). We also understand where the bodies of others have gone. Hidden in the unmarked mass graves of Manhush. Rage. Just rage.

About a quarter of the pre-war population remains in Mariupol.  According to the City Council, local residents are in a complete information vacuum, and Russian propaganda is spreading fakes about the alleged "100 thousand dead" and "the capture of Kyiv by the Russians without a fight."  "Despite this, people are trying to leave for Zaporozhzhia and other free cities, and local authorities insist on continuing the evacuation."

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration: A multi-level defense system is being created near Zaporizhzhia.  According to the calculations of the military command, defense installations are placed in positions, to prevent the enemy from shelling Zaporizhzhia.

●        Russians hold 117 Ukrainians hostage in Zaporozhzhia region 280 people were held hostage by Russian troops. Of these, 163 were released and 117 are still there.

Operational command Pivden (South). The Russians once again fired at the bridge across the Dniester estuary in the Odessa region, firing two rockets at it at night. Once started, repair work will take a long time.  Until then, the bridge is inoperable and train service between Odesa and Ismailia, a port at the mouth of the Danube, is disrupted.

●        Another missile strike was inflicted on the Odessa region from the Black Sea. According to preliminary information, there are no significant damage or casualties.

Mayor of Energodar:  Russian soldiers plan to sign contracts and issue "licenses" to Energodar entrepreneurs.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister and the "head" of Crimea arrived in occupied Kherson.  The Russian said that the region has "great prospects" and will take "a worthy place in the Russian family."

Dnipro Administration:  As a result of the morning missile attack of the Russian Federation on the Dnieper, a transport infrastructure facility was destroyed. A second missile was shot down by air defense, the wreckage fell on a private courtyard. A woman was injured and two houses were damaged.

REST OF UKRAINE

State Emergency Service: Eight people were killed as a result of an airstrike carried out yesterday morning by Russian troops on the village of Desna, in the Chernihiv region. Another 12 were injured.

Operational command Pivnich (North): 70 explosions in the direction of Boyaro-Lezhachev from the territory of Russia were recorded in the morning in the Sumy region.

●        There is a battle on the border with the Sumy region. Explosions and shooting have been heard for several hours now in the city of Seredyna-Buda.

●        In the Sumy region, the battle continues in the north of the Shostka district, there is an attempt to break through the state border in the Seredyno-Buda - failed.

Sumy Regional Military Administration "It is clear that it is necessary to attack the Russians on their territory, which does not quite meet Ukraine's plans for defense. We are a peaceful state and have never fought on the territory of other states, but I think that the highest military  appropriate decisions will be made by the leadership in order to protect our citizens from the risk of being killed or shot by artillery at home, in the Sumy region, 10-20 kilometers from the border.”

Poltava Regional Military Administration:  Near Mirgorod, Poltava region, explosions will be heard - Ukrainian forces are conducting practice shooting there.

Kyiv Region Police: In the Kyiv region, the bodies of four more corpses were found in a common grave.  The unidentified individuals were shot by the Russian military during the occupation of the region.

Mayor: Kyiv announced the delivery of emergency equipment; 12 special emergency vehicles, 9 of which were handed over to other Ukrainian cities.  The equipment was donated by several German cities.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news