Ukraine – 5/17/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
May 17, 2023
Bohdan is getting his computer repaired. He said he should be back tomorrow. Also, as I am sure you’ll appreciate, the night of May 15th & 16th was rather noisy in Kyiv.
Post From Andrei regarding Pres. Zelenskyy
He sent this today, in response to some remarks I made a couple of days ago, about continuing corruption (my comments in bold face) –
“First, I very much doubt his 20% pre-war rating. The vast majority of people I know continued to support him despite all BS by Butusov and other Zelenskiy haters (you should remember what I wrote about operation "Wagner" and Ukrainian mass media at that time).” What Andrei is referring to is a botched operation by Ukraine in the summer of 2020, the objective of which was to capture a large number of Wagner mercenaries who were on their way from Belarus to Syria. Zelenskyy’s critics accused Zelenskyy and those in his administration of exposing the operation to Belarus. In fact, the Russians had learned of the operation separately, and were lying in wait. Had the operation proceeded it would’ve been a disaster for Ukraine. Had the operation gone ahead, it would’ve seriously damaged Ukraine’s relationship with Turkey, because the Wagners were being transported on a Turkish Airlines flight from Minsk to Istanbul. It would be hard to see how Turkey would have served as an intermediary for the deal that is allowing Ukraine to transport grain out of its southern ports. More information about “Wagnergate” can be found here.
“Second, I have yet to see a single piece of evidence confirming that Zelenskiy is personally corrupt or shields those who steal.”
“Third, quite contrary to that, the continuing digitization of numerous state functions has already killed as much as 80% of low-level corruption in the country -- something none of his predecessors (including Butusov's sponsor Poroshenko) has not even tried to achieve.”
“I personally do not see a single competitor who could chellenge Zelenskiy's political dominance during post-war elections. Anybody saying the opposite should be smoking wrong cigarettes. Unless, of course, he decides not to run and appoints a successor -- say, Fyodorov who has been a real star and has been elevated to the rank of vice-VP recently. I would vote for Fyodorov under such circumstances.” As Andrei implies Fyodorov is one of the fastest-rising public figures in Ukraine today. He has been Minister of Digital Transformation, and responsible for the development of Diia, the app that allows millions of Ukrainians to access government services directly. He has recently taken on an additional position as Vice Prime Minister.
For those of you living in the Washington, DC area and interested in learning more about Ukraine’s digital transformation that Andrei refers to, particularly “Diia,” Fyodorov is giving a talk this coming Tuesday, Feb. 16th, at the Warner Theater in Washington, DC. You can register here. This link also contains a short video describing Diia.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” describes continued progress by Ukraine on the flanks north and south of Bakhmut. The Wagners continue to make progress inside Bakhmut, but how long they will continue to do so depends on their concern about being encircled by Ukrainians moving east north and south of Bakhmut. It also appears that Ukraine has almost completely withdrawn its forces from the portion of Bakhmut it continues to hold, except for a small force whose mission is to kill as many Wagners as possible.
“Reporting From Ukraine” also covers the missile attack against Kyiv on the night of 15 and 16 May, when Ukraine shot down all the 16 missiles Russia had launched against Kyiv, including 6 of the so-called indefensible hypersonic cruise missiles. There was a report that Russia had a destroyed a Patriot missile battery. That is unlikely. A Patriot battery consists of radar station and control unit, and 8 separate launchers spread out over a wide area. Debris from one of the Russian missiles may have damaged one of the launchers, but not the entire battery.
The Russian missiles were targeting a Patriot launcher, because someone was filming it, and positing on social media. Russia saw the posting on Telegram, and they determined the location. The person who took the video is now in jail, charged with treason.
“The Russian Military Has Improved – The West Should Take Note,” by Chels Michta
With all due respect, I don’t think Chels Michta makes her case in this article.
First, Ms. Michta fails to mention one of Russia's major tactical accomplishments (if you can call if that), which was last November's withdrawal of 20,000 Russian troops, and their equipment, across the Dnieper at a time when all the bridges were destroyed (except at Nova Khahovka that was badly damaged). For that, Gen. Surovikin lost his job.
She mentions as one accomplishment Russia luring a large number of Ukrainian troops into Bakhmut. It was Ukraine's choice to stay in Bakhmut, and they did so against the advice of Western advisers. They weren't "lured." Ukraine's decision to stay seems to be turning out well, for Ukraine.
When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, they had no tactical communications. They were using cell phones. They couldn't communicate with their aircraft. Since then, there have been reports of Russia's vastly improved system of tactical communications, but in fact the attack against Kyiv showed that nothing had changed. Ms. Michta never mentioned this.
Ms. Michta about how Russia has "gone to school," learning from Ukraine's successes but she really didn't provide any examples. I don't think it is possible for Russia to "graduate," until they learn how to push tactical decision making down to junior officers and non-commissioned officers, instead of the “top down” command system Russia now employs. Civil society groups have played a critical role in Ukraine's military successes, something I don't see Russia able to replicate.
CIA – Open For Business
Starting with a video posted last night, on the Russian social media channel called Telegram, the CIA is reaching out to Russian officials disaffected by the war in Ukraine to spy for the United States. The CIA claims that they have set up a secure link, allowing Russians to reach out to the Agency.
“Leaders Stay – Others Run”/NY Times
A recent article in the NY Times, about why some leaders run at the first sign of adversity, and others stay. The article mentions Pres. Zelenskyy’s decision to stay in Kyiv despite the presence of 5 assassination teams in the City trying to kill him.