Bob Homans May 16

20220516

Ukraine – 5/16 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 16, 2022

He’s Baaack!

Happily, my Kyiv Kollaborator has returned.

Ukraine – An Inconvenient Country

Two articles, one from Ukrainska Pravda and the other from Politico.eu, together illustrate how the aspirations of Ukrainians, to live in a free country embracing the Rule of Law and Free Enterprise, is often seen as inconvenient, by policymakers in the United States, Europe, Russia, and even some Ukrainians who would rather operate under the opaque business conditions that were often prevalent prior to last February 24th.   Instead, better for Ukraine’s Western “Partners” to guide Ukraine into a subservient position within Russia’s “sphere of influence,” and then get on with business.    This is not the first time - Ukraine, and Ukrainians, have been seen as inconvenient for hundreds of years.

The article in Ukrainska Pravda describes the trajectory of Ukraine’s negotiations with Russia to end the war, and the West’s perspective of those negotiations, from the time at last February’s Munich Security Conference, when President Zelenskyy was offered help to set up a Ukrainian Government in Exile, to today when President Zelenskyy is dictating terms to Russia, stating his precondition that Russian troops get of Ukraine.   Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield matters, or as von Clausewitz said, “War is the continuation of policy with other means."

The Politico article describes how some in the West, most significantly Pres. Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and Prime Minister Mario Draghi of Italy badly want a ceasefire, and they want Ukraine to consider giving up part of its territory to “appease” Russia.  There are three problems with this approach that the leaders of France, Germany and Italy either fail to consider or deliberately ignore.  

First, a ceasefire is a necessary condition for the creation of a frozen conflict.   In Ukraine, this happened in February 2015 when Ukraine, under pressure from Germany and France, signed the Minsk II Agreement.    Ukraine wants nothing to do with a ceasefire; most of all Ukraine wants nothing to do with a ceasefire along the lines of Minsk II, where Ukraine agreed that a large portion of its sovereignty would be bargained away.  

Second, even if Ukraine’s leaders agreed to a ceasefire plus ceding of Ukrainian territory, Ukrainians never would.  The war would go on.   Ukrainians would engage in non-stop partisan warfare directed at the portion of Ukraine that was sacrificed on the altar of appeasement while Russia, likely free of many of the existing sanctions, can reform and rearm its military.   Russia will torment Ukraine again, but not until Macron, Scholz & Draghi are safely out of office.

Third, the three leaders likely see Ukraine’s victory over Russia as an actual cause of their businesses not being able to resume operations in Russia or, worse, a dissolution of Russia if Putin is forced out of office because of his Army’s defeat by Ukraine.   This is something that none of the 3 leaders want to seriously contemplate, and they see Ukraine’s reluctance to “appease” Putin as increasing the likelihood of an implosion of Russia.

An Inconvenient Country indeed.

5/15 Sitrep

INTERNATIONAL

A Finnish general responding to Russia’s threats on Finland’s accession to NATO, replied: «You are most welcome here to join the 200,000 Russians that are already in Finland buried a few meters in the ground after your last attempt in 1939.»

Estonian Defence Forces: On Monday, the exercises of the Defence Forces Yezh-2022 began in Estonia, in which about 15,000 servicemen of the Defense Forces and of allied and partner countries will participate.  The exercise will be from May 16 to June 3 and cover almost all of Estonia.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister:  The EU plans to impose an oil embargo on Russia are blocked only by Hungary.   "The whole union is being held hostage by one member state ... we have to agree, we cannot be held hostage,".

Czech Minister for European Affairs:  Ukraine should as soon as possible go through the path to the EU, while fulfilling all standard criteria.

Moscow Mayor:  At the Renault Plant, which became the property of Moscow, cars under the brand "Moskvich" will be produced.  Revived "Moskvich’s" in the future will be electric cars

NASA: Russian Rocket with "Z", written on its side deploys military satellite which fails and falls back to earth.

British Foreign Secretary:  London wants to control 'security' in the Indo-Pacific region with a 'global NATO'.  "We express strong support for the entry of Finland and Sweden into the alliance. It is important that we focus on the global NATO. Because, while protecting Euro-Atlantic security, we also need to pay attention to security in the Indo-Pacific region"

Belta:  Putin convened a meeting Organization of the Collective Security Treaty of the leaders of the (ODKB) countries for Monday, May 16.  According to the agency, the summit will be held in Russia and will be dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Collective Security Treaty.  In addition, they are going to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the organization.

Stuttgarter Nachrichten: Director Institute for German Economics:  "Russia is committing economic suicide," Putin is stealing all the prospects from his country, the Russian Federation is degrading politically and not achieving its military goals.

Ex-deputy minister of defense of Poland:  Kaliningrad should be demilitarized and renamed.  He also stressed that the disintegration of Russia would happen faster than expected.

Russian Committee on Defense:  Russia will strengthen the military grouping on the border with Finland after its entry into NATO.

NBC News poll, 75% of Americans polled believe that the White House is going in the wrong direction, and only 16% support it.  The actions of US President Joe Biden are supported by 39% of respondents, 56% were against.

German Foreign Minister:  Russia has blocked the channels of dialogue with Europe and NATO represented by the OSCE.  She stressed that the Alliance will take this into account in its strategic concept when strengthening the eastern flank.

Swedish Prime Minister spoke in favor of the country's entry into NATO. Tomorrow, May 16, she will ask Parliament to support the application to join the Alliance. "A joint bid with Finland would be the best guarantee for Sweden's security".

CNN: The US Senate Minority Leader, amid criticism from other Republicans, said the $40 billion Ukraine spending bill was "not a handout".

SW Research  Poland, the embargo on Russian oil, gas and coal is supported by 73% of citizens.

Kadyrov appealed to Turkish President Erdogan not to facilitate the evacuation of the military from the territory of 'Azovstal'.

Volodymyr Zelenskyi received the Coat of Arms of Tallinn, as an award.  The decision to award the Ukrainian president was made by the city council of the capital of Estonia.

Bloomberg:  The European Union intends to offer its gas importers a solution that will allow them to circumvent sanctions when buying blue fuel from the Russian Federation and satisfy Putin's demand to pay for it in rubles.

Swedish Social Democratic Party:  Sweden, in case of approval of its NATO membership application, will oppose the deployment of nuclear weapons and military bases on its territory

Secretary of State:  The US will vote for an additional $40 billion in aid to Ukraine

Ukraine published message intercepts from the Battleship Moskva where the crew are calling for help because the vessel was hit and has two gashes below the water line.  The crew say they are cut off from the bridge and that the listing ship is going down,

NATO Secretary General:  Ukraine can win this war.  The Russian war in Ukraine is not going the way Moscow planned. They failed to take Kyiv. They are retreating from Kharkiv, their main offensive in the Donbas has stalled.

●        Turkey has made it clear that it does not intend to block the membership of Sweden and Finland in the Alliance.

Taras Shevchenko Square appeared in Cannes.   According to reports, there are available berths in the Cannes Marina, due to the absence of yachts owned by Russian oligarchs.

Le Monde:   ICC Chief Prosecutor - Next week, 42 ​​investigators from the International Criminal Court will arrive in Ukraine to investigate Russian war crimes.

Financial Times: Unicredit and Citigroup are considering an asset swap as a way to get out of Russia

Bloomberg:  “NATOs new strategy, which will be adopted in June, may designate the Russian Federation as an "immediate threat" 

Zvezda: The official channel of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation published a video showing a dead Ukrainian soldier on Serpents' Island, however the corpses clothing was covered with insignia of the Russian marines.

Social Networks:  Many rallies in Polish cities supporting Mariupol and the release of Azovstal. Also in Stuttgart, New York City, Amsterdam, Valencia, Mainz, Tokyo, Vienna, Maastricht, Barcelona, Ostrava, Sao Paulo, Winnipeg

Reuters:  The process of Finland and Sweden joining NATO can take a matter of weeks. NATO deputy secretary general said Scandinavian countries will be able to join the alliance as quickly as possible, despite Turkey's preliminary resistance, - .

NATIONAL

German Welt: Ukraine Foreign Minister  Ukraine’s negotiating position with Russia is tightening.  "Now we feel more confident in the fight, so our position in the negotiations is also tightening. If the situation on the battlefield changed, it would mean that Russia would be in a better position... the real problem is that Russia does not reveal a desire to participate in real substantive negotiations"

British Defence Intelligence:  The deployment of Belarus special operations forces along the Ukraine border, which Minsk announced on 10 May, will likely fix Ukrainian troops, so they cannot deploy in support of operations in the Donbas.  Belarusian President is likely balancing support for Russia's invasion with a desire to avoid direct military participation with the risk of Western sanctions, Ukrainian retaliation and possible dissatisfaction in the Belarusian military.

Ukrainian forces have reached the border north of the city of Kharkiv.

UN estimate: 9 out of 10 Ukrainians will fall below the poverty line if the war in Ukraine lasts;   Damage to infrastructure is at least $100 billion. Half of the Ukrainian enterprises have closed, and the other half have difficulties.

President of Ukraine Appointed Major General Ihor Tantsyura as Commander of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine instead of Yuriy Galushkin.  Previously, Tantsyura served as Deputy Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.  In 2019, he was Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander of the JFO(Joint Forces Operation)

Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine:  Ukrainian application for NATO membership, when it comes down to it, should be considered as quickly as the applications of Sweden and Finland.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister called on Germany to lead the process leading to Ukraine becoming part of the European Union.

Ministry of Internal Affairs: The fighting in the Donbas will last at least a month, and the transition to the next phase of the war will take several months.  The next phase is the attempts of the Russian troops to hold the temporarily occupied territories.

National Guard of Ukraine: It is very difficult to get to Mariupol and resolve the situation at 'Azovstal' by military means.  The Russian line of encirclement reaches 100 km in places.

●        There are about 600 wounded soldiers on the territory of 'Azovstal', 40 of them are in serious condition.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

●        Russian troops systematically shelled the recently liberated settlements of Ruski Tyshky, Ternova and Petrivka in the Kharkiv region. They unsuccessfully tried to conduct offensive and assault operations in the areas of the settlements of Dovhenke and Bohorodychne.

●        The Russians are suffering significant losses in manpower and equipment. In some areas, the staffing of units, is less than 20%.

●        In Severodonetsk, Russian troops with artillery support attacked Toshkivka. In the area of Borovskyi, the Russians suffered losses and retreated.

●        In the Donetsk Bakhmut direction, hostilities continue in the Kamyshevakha area.  In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy fought and suffered losses in the area of the settlements of Pisky and Novokalynovo.   Pisky is located very close to the City of Donetsk.

●         In the Kurakhivskyi Donetsk, using artillery support a Russian assault failed.

●        The command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is trying to replenish troop losses with reservists.  About 2,500 reservists are being trained in the Voronizh, Bilhorod and Rostov regions. They are to be sent to tUkraine to participate in the war.

●         In the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, seventeen Russian attacks in the last day; three tanks, one artillery system, six units of combat armoured vehicles and cars were destroyed.

Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine:   Launched an investigation into the use of prohibited incendiary shells against the defenders of Mariupol at Azovstal on May 14.  The combustion temperature of such shells is approximately 3 thousand degrees Celsius. They are designed to destroy enemy manpower and equipment by creating massive fires.

●        From the start of the invasion more than 650 children have suffered from the Russians.  229 killed and 421 wounded.

'Ukrinform': Speaker of Parliament If the Russian Federation refuses to pay reparations for the damage caused as a result of the war, Ukraine will seize and sell all Russian property that is in the country.

US Embassy in Ukraine:  Almost all American M-777 howitzers provided by the United States are now in Ukraine, including many are on the front lines.

Ministry of Agrarian Policy:  Russian soldiers stole at least 500 thousand tons of Ukrainian grain.

State Border Service of Ukraine:  More people are returning to Ukraine than leaving. More than 40 000 people enter the country daily

Ukrainian Ombudsman:  Russians are torturing civilians taken hostage in Kherson.  Daily arrests and torture are now the norm.

●        Russia began a covert mobilization in Crimea, but many refuse to fight against Ukraine and surrender to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense:  About 2,500 militants from the Chechen Republic participated in the military invasion of Ukraine.  The so-called ""Kadyrovites"" began to enter Ukraine in the early days of Russia's large-scale military invasion. Their main task was to intimidate and kill Ukrainians. After the Russian troops began to suffer large-scale losses, the 'Kadyrovites' were ordered to stop the retreating Russian units and shoot those who refused to fight.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. “One of the results of the end of the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine should be a trial in the International Criminal Court”

Security Service of Ukraine: Russians confirm use of phosphorus and cluster weapons in Ukraine. Evidence comes from an intercepted conversation between Russian soldiers.  “Everything that was forbidden by international conventions: cassettes, phosphorus – we were allowed to do everything, we let everyone in,” one Russian says to another.

LUHANSK

Luhansk Regional Military Administration:  Russian troops shelled the hospital in Severodonetsk in Luhansk region, there are at least 9 injured.

●        10 people were evacuated from Severodonetsk, including four children and two invalids.

●        10% of the territory of the Luhansk remains under Ukrainian control –  the neighborhoods of Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk (+villages and United territorial communities), the Horska community and the territory along the Lysychansk-Bakhmut road to the border with the Donetsk region.

●        Russian attack on Borivske failed and they were counter attacked near Toshkivkai.

●        To stop Russian troops moving in the direction of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, the 8th Special Forces Regiment, together with the National Guard and the Department of Counterintelligence of the Security Service of Ukraine, destroyed railway bridges captured by the enemy between the Rubizhne and Sievierodonetsk of Luhansk region.

Social Media:  Wives of conscripted men from occupied Luhansk protested that the Russian army sent their husbands to fight against Ukraininas without any support.  During the rally, the wives of the mobilized men stated that the Russian soldiers retreated and left their husbands without cover. They are sure that the command of the Russian Federation is not aware of the situation, therefore they demand a meeting with the head of the "LPR" Pasechnik.

DONETSK

Donetsk Regional Military Administration:  May 15, the Russians killed 3 Donbas civilians: 2 in Drobyshevo and 1 in Toretsk. Another 13 people were injured.

●        Russian troops tried to break through in the Avdiivka direction last night, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine repulsed the attack

Adviser to the mayor of Mariupol:  Mariupol residents are dying en masse not only because of shelling, but also because of nervous breakdowns, lack of medical service, unsanitary conditions and hunger.

●        In the Central District of Mariupol, there were many fires in apartments due to the attempt of the Russians to restore electricity.

●        Russians are nationalizing Ukrainian movable and immovable property in Mariupol.  The list also includes rail transport, electricity and water supply. The next step is the transfer of the "nationalized" property to the Russian Federation.

●        15 women have died at Azovstal Wives of the soldiers defending Azovstal give a press conference about the situation at the plant: "Defenders of Azovstal contact their relatives about once a day. The mood of the defenders of Azovstal is pessimistic, they are preparing for the last battle, negotiations are not moving forward.  The situation with the wounded at Azovstal is constantly changing - there are more and more of them. The defenders no longer have medicines. The limbs of the lightly wounded are amputated without anesthesia."

Institute for the Study of War:  The Russian army is likely to focus on capturing Sievierodonetsk rather than reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region.  Russia wants to establish permanent control over the occupied south of Ukraine, according to the ISW.  Because of the fact that the Russians had begun to strengthen the occupied settlements in the south.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration:  In the community of Kamenka Russians burn their dead on the battlefield and turn the local school into a prison, where the Russians keep soldiers who refuse to fight.

●        Russian shelling damaged homes in Huliaipole, no injuries.

●        Russian troops blew up the road to and from the village of Dorozhnianka.  The destruction cut off the village and transport connections between Polohy and Huliaipole.

●        Ukrainian Forces captured the equipment of Russian soldiers from North Osetia, who fled from their positions.

Energoatom:  Along the entire perimeter of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Russian soldiers dug trenches and placed sandbags with concrete blocks.

Kherson Association for the Reintegration of Crimea: Russian troops plan to distribute stolen Ukrainian medical humanitarian aid.

Mykolaiv hit by rocket this morning.  A furniture store and car caught fire. Near the explosion site, remnants of Russian multiple-launch rocket cluster were found. The fire was quickly extinguished.

Odesa Regional Military Administration:  Odesa citizens should not be afraid of planes flying over the city now. These are Ukrainian planes.

●        City recreational zone hit by rocket this morning.

The enemy opened fire on the border territory Shostka district, SUMY region, with mortars, grenade launchers, machine guns and automatic rifles. Under the covering of fire, enemy subversion and reconnaissance groups tried to enter the area but were beaten back.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news