Ukraine – 5/15/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
May 15, 2023
NOTE: It’s likely that we’ll be unable to publish tomorrow, due to computer problems in Kyiv.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting from Ukraine” covers continuing Russian reversals north and south of Bakhmut. South of Bakhmut, Ukraine cut off a Russian salient, and took over positions on the high ground that will likely form the basis for future progress.
Interview With Gen. Zaluzhnyi
The interview with Gen. Zaluzhnyi is a “must.” During the interview he talked about receiving a call from a Western official on the night of Feb. 24th, the day Russia launched its latest invasion. He said that the caller had offered him his sympathy, because the caller expected a Russian walkover. The interviewer asked who the caller was. Gen. Zaluzhnyi declined to name the person. I hope I am wrong; my own guess is that it was Gen. Milley, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. He also talked about the letters he gets from children, who he said would tell him that they’re looking forward to returning to their occupied and shattered cities.
“The Future of Ukraine's Political Consensus”/The Wilson Center
The article chronicles President Zelenskyy’s drop in the polls, from around 73% at the time of his election as President in 2019, down to below 20% at the time of Russia’s latest invasion, and back up since the war started. The article predicts that Zelenskyy’s opinion polls will go back down, because of questions about corruption and personnel policy. Some predict a new “Maidan” soon after the war ends.
Ukraine’s electorate has changed substantially since the start of the war. Among other things, there is much less tolerance for corruption. How this will play into Zelenskyy’s poll ratings remains to be seen. His current term as President ends next year.
5/15/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon May 14 to 12:00 noon May 15, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
MondayMay 15
12:39 a.m.: Macron said that Russia has effectively come under the control of China.
· He noted that Russia has lost the freedom of hands that is critically important for it in the Baltic Sea because the actions of the Kremlin forced Sweden and Finland to decide on joining NATO.
7:15 am: Elections in Turkey: 99.89% of ballots have been processed — the gap between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu is 4%, — Anadolu Agency .
· As of now, the current president has the support of 49.26% of voters, the opposition candidate - 45.04%.
· Counting of votes of citizens who voted abroad is underway. It is up to him to determine whether there will be a second round.
8:07 am : The Armed Forces of the Kingdom of Norway plan to train approximately 3,200 Ukrainian soldiers in 2023, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
8:08 am : France and Ukraine called on the Russian Federation to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia NPP, a joint statement by Zelenskyi and Macron .
8:09 am : United States President Joe Biden will attend the G7 summit in Hiroshima and hold talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio on Thursday, ahead of the leaders' meeting Kishda _ This is reported by Kyodo with reference to the White House .
8:10 am : Near the east coast of South Korea in the Sea of Japan, the most powerful earthquake since the beginning of this year, its strength reached 4.5 points , - Yonhap
8:11 am : A powerful tropical cyclone covered Myanmar and Bangladesh, with wind gusts reaching 209 km per hour in some places, - Independent .
8:57 am: A number of American media and bloggers report the death of George Soros. According to their information, he had a heart attack.
· The information has not been officially confirmed yet.
9:12 am: Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in London. There he has a meeting with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak .
· "Today is London. The UK is leading the way when it comes to expanding our capabilities on the ground and in the air. This cooperation will continue today. I will meet my friend Rishi . We will hold substantive negotiations face-to-face and in delegations," the president writes.
10:01 am: Great Britain will provide Ukraine with hundreds of long-range strike drones (more than 200 km), - The Guardian citing the government.
· Deliveries will be arranged in the coming months.
· "Today, the Prime Minister will confirm the UK's continued supply of hundreds of air defense missiles and additional unmanned aerial systems, including hundreds of new long-range strike drones with a range of over 200km," the document says.
11:11 am: France will provide Ukraine with dozens of armored vehicles and light tanks, including the AMX-10RC. The country is also focusing its efforts on supporting Ukrainian air defense.
· This is stated in the joint declaration of Ukraine and France following the meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Emmanuel Macron .
11:43 am: Britain will begin training Ukrainian pilots in the summer and is also working with other countries on the possible delivery of F-16s to Ukraine.
· The government of the United Kingdom made a corresponding statement.
Sunday May 14
12:11 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy's first visit to Germany since the beginning of full-scale Russian aggression.
· "We discussed the current situation and intensive cooperation between Germany and Ukraine. Germany will continue to support Ukraine politically, militarily and financially as long as it is necessary," the president wrote.
12:55 pm: "Thank you to Germany for the largest package of military assistance since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion.
· German air defense systems, artillery, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles save Ukrainian lives and bring us closer to victory," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
1:31 pm: Volodymyr Zelensky answered a German journalist's question about the likelihood of occupying Russian border villages to gain leverage over Moscow.
· "We are not attacking Russian territory; we are liberating our rightful land. We do not have the time, energy, and extra weapons for this. We are preparing for a counteroffensive," the president said.
2:12 pm: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will call for increased assistance to Ukraine at the G7 leaders' summit in Japan, the politician's office said in a statement.
· "At the G7 summit, the UK will mobilize international efforts against the practice of economic coercion resorted to by hostile states, as well as strengthen support for Ukraine as it prepares to intensify hostilities against Russia," Sunak's office said in a statement.
2:32 pm: Belarus is now going on its own "war" to prevent Russia from making Belarus part of the Russian Federation. This was stated by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a conversation with the Italian press.
· "There are more than 70% of the population of Belarus who are currently against Russia, who are upset about the war, who support Ukraine. This suggests that, despite the information policy and any narratives, Belarusians are fighting. It's difficult, it's also a war. Because they have no victims, but there are lost people who have been brainwashed. It is also a war for independence, for freedom of speech, for freedom of choice, for the same values. And so they understand that they can be next," Zelensky said.
2:50 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
· "An important meeting in Berlin. Germany's leadership in defending peace can make the world safer. The more cooperation there is between us for peace, the more Germany will be a leader in protecting peace, the more stability there will be in international relations," the president wrote.
3:52 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about the counteroffensive during a visit to Berlin.
· "We believe in success, the truth is on our side. Support is on our side. We are motivated. And it seems to me that we are almost ready for this success," the president said.
· He also confirmed that there is a risk of weakening support from some states in case of insufficient success on the field, but these countries have not been very active in supporting Ukraine.
4:32 pm: Zelensky said in an interview with the Italian press that if Ukraine loses, Russia will quickly decide to go further to the Baltic countries, which are NATO members:
· "Your society should be ready, and it should know that it is better to help Ukraine than to send your children [to a new war]."
· Putin will be pressured by his inner circle and business when Ukrainian troops reach the administrative borders of Crimea.
· "We will have counteroffensive actions and we will push them back. Support for Putin will decrease, he will have internal issues and he will solve them," Zelensky said.
· Volodymyr Zelensky is convinced that Putin will not use nuclear weapons because he is worried about his life. However, no one can give a full guarantee, since the head of the Russian Federation has lost touch with reality.
· "What his people are doing on our land shows that he is detached from society. Putin does not understand that no one was waiting for him with flowers, that Belarus will not support the war against Ukraine, that NATO is not attacking, but defending itself. I think that he has lost touch with reality, but he really wants to live. And he will do everything for that," he said.
5:14 pm: Germany has announced a new package of military assistance to support Ukraine worth about €2.7 billion.
· This was written by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Twitter.
· Leopard-1 battle tanks, Marder infantry fighting vehicles and Iris-T air defense systems will be sent to Ukraine.
5:51 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with members of the German Security Cabinet.
· "This format of the meeting is unique and fully corresponds to the high level of interaction achieved between our states," the president wrote.
· 5:58 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Aachen to receive the Charlemagne Prize, — Deutsche Welle .
7:15pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people were awarded the Charlemagne Prize for their contribution to uniting Europe.
8:11 pm: Presidential elections were held in Turkey today, and the vote counting process has already begun.
· The main rival of the current President Erdogan is considered to be the candidate from the united opposition Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
· According to the results of the first results of counting 38.2% of the ballots, Erdogan is leading in the election race and has 52.8% of the vote, but his competitor is only 11.6% behind.
9:42 pm: The press service of the President of France confirmed the visit of Volodymyr Zelensky to Paris, — CNN.
· It is reported that the leaders of the countries will discuss the urgent military and humanitarian needs of Ukraine over dinner.
· "This exchange of views will enable them to continue and deepen the dialogue of confidence following their February 8 meeting in Paris and regular phone calls since then," the statement said.
10:12 pm: President Zelenskyy arrives in Paris.
· "With each visit, Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities increase. The bond with Europe is getting stronger, and the pressure on Russia is growing. I will meet my friend Emmanuel. We will discuss the most important points of bilateral relations," he wrote on Telegram.
· 10:41 pm: Volodymyr Zelensky met with Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris
11:19 pm: Israel has completed a special operation against the militant group "Islamic Jihad".
· This was stated by the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu.
· "Yesterday evening, we successfully completed a five-day fight against the terrorist organization Islamic Jihad," Netanyahu said.
11:38 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the military base in the city of Aachen , where Ukrainian servicemen are trained.
· The President talked with Ukrainian soldiers and presented state awards to the soldiers.
11:46 pm: Germany signed a declaration supporting Ukraine's movement towards NATO membership, — OP
NATIONAL
Monday May 15
7:42 am General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: In the Marinka direction, units of the defense forces repelled numerous enemy attacks in the area of the city of Marinka . At the same time, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka , Pobieda and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk region were subjected to enemy shelling.
· The enemy continues to conduct defensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions.
· the Russians continue to try to replenish the losses in manpower due to forced mobilization in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine
· Thus, in a number of settlements of the Kherson region, the facts of the forcible detention of men who previously renounced Ukrainian citizenship in favor of Russian citizenship are noted. After the arrest, during the first introductory interview, they demand from such citizens an unlawful monetary reward for delaying mobilization. People who refuse to pay a bribe or do not have the required amount of money are sent by the Russians to field camps to undergo an accelerated course of general military training. After that, the specified persons are sent to the settlements bordering the battle line.
UAV were destroyed in the northeast direction operational -tactical level "Orlan-10".
10:52 am: The odious oligarch Dmytro Firtash was suspected of committing a criminal offense
· According to our sources, today the SBU and BEB are serving suspicions to Firtash himself and 8 top managers of his companies. Since morning, searches have been taking place at the heads of the oligarch's companies (RGK, Ye Energy) and regional gas companies.
· The law enforcement officers exposed a scheme according to which structures under Firtash's control bought fuel from his own company, but actually received 30% of the volume. The artificial deficit was covered at the expense of state gas, and the money ended up in Firtash's pockets. According to our sources, over seven years, such a scheme caused losses to the country's budget of 18 billion hryvnias.
Sunday May 14
6:39 pm Update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on May 14:
· "During the day, the enemy launched 6 missile strikes, in particular on the city of Kharkiv and the village of Zolochiv .
· In addition, it inflicted 27 air strikes and carried out about 20 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on the positions of our troops and settlements.
· Civilians were injured, private residential buildings and other civilian and administrative infrastructure were destroyed and damaged."
· "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions.
· In total, during the day, about 30 clashes took place in these sectors of the front, Bakhmut and Marinka remain in the epicenter of hostilities."
· "Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 12 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel and military equipment.
· In addition, during this day, our defenders destroyed 3 reconnaissance UAVs, 2 of them - type "Orlan-10" and 1 - " Supercam ".
· "Missile troops and artillery units hit 1 control point, 6 areas of concentration of manpower, 2 artillery units in firing positions and 1 more important enemy target."
3:31 pm: In winter, blackouts may return, said DTEK Director Dmytro Sakharuk .
· He also said that in Ukraine, 75% of thermal generation is damaged or destroyed as a result of Russian attacks.
· "12,000 kilometers of power lines need to be restored and repaired. Almost 4 thousand distribution substations need to be prepared for winter. These are crazy funds that need to be allocated. Therefore, blackouts are possible not now, but in winter," Sakharuk said .
Mordor - russia
Sunday May 14
8:58 pm: The military leadership of the Russian Federation cannot simply kill mobilized Russians who abandon positions, but it can kill mobilized prisoners.
· This was stated by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a conversation with Italian journalists.
· "They [mobilized by the Russian Federation] They are not motivated, they are running, they will not fight, and the leadership of the Russian Federation cannot just kill these mobilized people.
· But they can kill convicts, he needs them, because he loses every day on the battlefield. His army has not been a friend for a long time, I do not want to give it a number, to be honest," the president said.
03:09 pm: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the death of two of its colonels during the day on May 13-14 in the Bakhmut area.
· "During the "repulsion of attacks" killed the commander of the 4th motorized rifle brigade Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov and deputy commander of the army corps for military-political work Colonel Yevhen Brovko ", - stated in the message.
10:31 pm Operational Command South: "Visitors" are trying to leave Crimea and get rid of illegally obtained real estate.
· According to Humeniuk , the routes of departure from the occupied peninsula to Russia are now heavily congested due to the large number of people wishing to leave it.
11:24 pm Social Networks : An explosion rang out and a fire started in Shchebekino , Belgorod Region.
KHARKIV
Monday May 15
7:28 am Kharkiv RMA: During the past day, the enemy launched 11 rocket attacks on the cities of Kharkiv, Kostyantynivka and the village of Zolochiv.
· In addition, it carried out 41 airstrikes and carried out 74 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas. Civilians suffered, private residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed and damaged.
12:53 am: The dog's biointegrated prosthesis was installed for the first time in Kharkiv. The animal lost its paw due to the shelling of the Russians.
· This was reported by traumatologist Vitaly Kluban . The black terrier was operated on by Kluban and his colleagues at the Saltivsk Veterinary Clinic. The implant itself was printed on a 3D printer.
Sunday May 14
12:20 pm: Explosions heard in Kramatorsk, followers report. We are waiting for official information.
12:26 pm: On May 13, Russians killed 7 residents of Donetsk region: 5 in Avdiivka and 2 in Kostiantynivka . Another 16 people in the region were injured.
· This was announced by the head of the Donetsk regional administration Pavel Kyrylenko.
1:52 pm Donetsk RMA: Russians launched a massive strike on Kostiantynivka . 8 private houses, 7 high-rise buildings, 2 industrial facilities, 5 infrastructure facilities were damaged.
· In Donetsk sector, 3 high-rise buildings were damaged in Kurakhove , 4 private houses in Ostrivske , and 1 house in Vovchenka .
· In the Horlivka sector in Toretsk territorial community, 30 houses, 4 infrastructure facilities and an administrative building were damaged.
· In Lysychansk direction, 2 houses in Zvanivka were destroyed.
LUHANSK
Monday May 15
8:11 am: An explosion rang out in temporarily occupied Luhansk. Local social networks report a rocket attack near the bus station.
9:28 am: A video of the aftermath of the attack on the navigators' aviation school in temporarily occupied Luhansk appeared on the Internet.
· According to local residents, after 2014, the "LPR" barracks were located there.
DONETSK
Monday May 15
Sunday May 14
12:20 pm: Explosions heard in Kramatorsk, followers report. We are waiting for official information.
12:26 pm: On May 13, Russians killed 7 residents of Donetsk region: 5 in Avdiivka and 2 in Kostiantynivka . Another 16 people in the region were injured.
· This was announced by the head of the Donetsk regional administration Pavel Kyrylenko.
1:52 pm Donetsk RMA: Russians launched a massive strike on Kostiantynivka . 8 private houses, 7 high-rise buildings, 2 industrial facilities, 5 infrastructure facilities were damaged.
· In Donetsk sector, 3 high-rise buildings were damaged in Kurakhove , 4 private houses in Ostrivske , and 1 house in Vovchenka .
· In the Horlivka sector in Toretsk territorial community, 30 houses, 4 infrastructure facilities and an administrative building were damaged.
· In Lysychansk direction, 2 houses in Zvanivka were destroyed.
ZAPORIZHIA
Monday May 14
12:15 am Zaporizhia RMA : shelling of Primorsk, Zaporizhzhia region: one person was killed, OVA reported.
· the Russians shelled the city of Primorsk , Zaporizhzhia region. As a result, six people were injured, including a minor child.
· A 24-year-old boy died in the hospital in an extremely serious condition.
11:28 am Zaporizhia RMA : 84 strikes by the Russians on towns and villages of the Zaporizhia region close to the front line.
· 19 settlements came under fire: Gulyaipole, Novoyakovlivka , Primorske, Malynivka, Poltavka, Kamianske , Stepove, etc. At night, the Russians drove into the center of Orikhov. No victims. Specialists tamed the flames. 26 destructions of civil infrastructure facilities were recorded.
Sunday May 14
12:19 pm: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Tokmak , Zaporizhzhia region, followers report. We are waiting for official information.
1:12 pm: Russian artillery attacks the village of Zaporizhzhia district, said the head of the regional administration Yuriy Malashko .
· "In Novoyakovlivka , the strike completely destroyed the house in which a 48-year-old woman was injured. In addition, a village store caught fire, residential buildings were damaged. The shelling is still ongoing. Information on the consequences is being clarified, he said.
4:11 pm Presidents Office: Russians shelling Zaporizhzhia region. As a result of Grad rocket attacks on the village of Prymorske , a man was injured. The enemy hit a private house.
· The Russians are also shelling the Primorskaya secondary school. It is known that three civilians and an ambulance driver were injured.
12:14 pm: Explosions are heard in the Bilozerka district of Kherson region, followers report. We are waiting for official information.
KHERSON
Sunday May 14
12:41 pm Presidents Office: In Kherson region, explosives left by the Russian army have killed five civilians.
· "The tragedy occurred at one of the agricultural enterprises in the village of Myrolyubivka , Novovorontsovsk community. An unexploded projectile. The youngest victim was 27 years old, the oldest – 68", – stated in the message.
3:32 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
5:30 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Beryslav district of Kherson region.
6:27 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
9:58 pm Air Defense South: Ukrainian military destroyed 3 Russian UAVs in Kherson region.
· 2 Orlan-10 reconnaissance UAVs and one ZALA UAV were destroyed.
10:48 pm: Explosions heard in Kherson, followers report. We are waiting for official information.
TERNOPIL
Sunday May 14
10:54 pm: Russians this night launched a rocket attack on a warehouse with humanitarian aid in Ternopil.
· Ivan Gontar, head of the "Light of Reformation" charitable foundation, announced this.
· "Thousands of tons of aid passed through this facility, hundreds of thousands of people received support and hope through the opportunity to use this facility," Gontar wrote.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka