Bob Homans May 13
20220513
Ukraine – 5/13 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 13, 2022
Russia’s So-Called Donbas Encirclement
This map, courtesy of Euromaidan Press, shows the progress, or lack thereof, of the efforts of Russia to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbas, a subject has been continually covered in the West, but without much context as to what the “encirclement” includes. The map also illustrates the limited Russian control of territory that most maps portrayed by the U.S. Media. Several important points:
· It is doubtful that even the 200,000 troops that Russia had at the start of the war would’ve been sufficient to complete either of the 2 larger encirclements shown on the map. Today, Russia’s strength has been substantially depleted, when at the same time the weapons supplied by the West are being deployed in the Donbas Theater.
· Russian failure to breach the defense lines around occupied Donbas – The portion of Donbas that Russia has controlled since the Spring in 2014, is shown in dark red. Since 2014 Ukraine has established 3 defense rings around occupied Donbas. Russia has failed to breach these defenses, a necessary but by no means a sufficient condition for Russia, to even attempt complete the two larger encirclements shown on the map.
· Russia is experiencing reversals in its effort to complete the smallest encirclement – Critical to this effort is a successful crossing of the Siversky Donets River, in the village of Bilohorivka, west of the city of Sievierodonetsk. As the video from this article in the Guardian shows, the area around the river is not the open steppes described in many western media reports. Instead there is significant cover, offering Ukraine prime areas for ambush similar to the areas around Kyiv. In addition, the banks of the Siversky Donets River are quite steep, leading for further problems for Russian armor attempting a crossing. As the Guardian article states, this maneuver illustrates the pressure that Russian commanders may be under, to show progress in encircling Ukrainian forces.
· Ukraine’s counter offensive in front of Kharkiv, that has driven the Russians back by up to 40km. from Kharkiv, also has the potential of cutting off Russian supply lines toward Izyum, that would adversely affect its ability to complete the Donbas encirclement. Russia already has continuing logistics problems, without having to worry about Ukraine interdicting its supply lines. Additionally, Russia might find it necessary to divert troops from Donbas to the area in front of Kharkiv, to slow or stop the Ukrainian counter offensive.
· The white areas, within the pink areas shown in the map, are areas that are either contested or still under Ukrainian control, likely by partisans. As was often said prior to the start of the war, 200,000 Russian troops will not be nearly enough to control territory, and this was before the substantial depletion of the Russian troops now engaged in Donbas. Back in January 2015 I heard an expert say that it would take 50,000 Russian troops to control the so-called “land bridge,” between Mariupol and Russian held Crimea. His statement seems to accurately describe the problem Russia now faces to control territory.
The same problem exists in and around the Russian-held cities of Kherson and Melitopol, in the south. There are significant areas of partisan activities and civilian resistance in and around both cities. Ukraine has been preparing for partisan warfare for at least 8 years. Much of the substantial crowd funding and informal military support Ukraine has been receiving go to partisan and territorial defense units. Even if Russia tries to incorporate Kherson Oblast into Russia, as it claims it plans to do, it will continue to have major problems with controlling territory, given the relatively small number of Russian troops that are present.
5/13 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)
Below, in quotes, is an eyewitness account of yesterday’s Russian attack on Novhorod-Siverskyi located in the Chernihiv Region (supplied by another contributor) –
“Dasha's Dad (my contributor’s Father-in-Law) told us yesterday that it was his unit that was hit near Novgorod-Severskiy, Chernihiv region (see below). It happened soon after midnight. There was no air alarm and an air defense battery nearby failed to react. First it was a missile, then an attack by two planes. The school where they were stationed was totally destroyed, two people were killed and 11 wounded. Fortunately, one of the soldiers saw a missile seconds before it hit and shouted a warning. The surviving soldiers managed to save their equipment in a very short interval between two phases of the strike. Nikolai says this successful attack by the Russians was facilitated by lack of vigilance (there were several enemy drones noticed in the area on the eve of attack, but the command did not bother to change the location) and poor mobile phone discipline.”
INTERNATIONAL
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The G7 Foreign Minister discussed the strengthening of measures against Russia due to its aggression in Ukraine.
Japan has decided to ban the exports of high-tech goods - such as quantum computers, 3D printers and electron microscopes - to Russia. Japan is a world leader in high technology. The ban on the supply of high-tech products to Russia will affect both scientific research and ordinary consumers.
Minister for Economic Affairs of Germany: «We see that Ukraine is capable of winning this war». Germany will continue to supply arms to Kyiv and pressure the Russian economy with sanctions. The country plans to participate in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.
CNN: The UK calls to tighten the sanctions until all Russian troops have left Ukraine. "The UK Foreign Minister stressed that the NATO allies should prepare by the end of the summer, to help Ukraine with the transition to the use of NATO-standard equipment - the supply of artillery shells, and training and exchange of experience."
Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations: Since February 24, Russia has fired more than 2,100 missiles on Ukrainian cities and villages.
U.S. Senate: Senator Rand Paul, Republican Senator from Kentucky, has blocked a bill to provide $40 billion in aid to Ukraine. Mr. Paul had pushed for language to be added to the bill that would give the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction oversight of the money and weapons the U.S. is sending to Ukraine.
Now the voting will delay until next week.
Former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe: The Armed Forces of Ukraine: will return the Russian army to the positions it held as of February 23 by the end of the summer.
Richard Gere sold his 1999 Jaguar XK8 at auction. All the money will be used to help Ukrainians who suffered during the war.
Austrian Chancellor threatened to expropriate a gas storage facility, located in Salzburg, from Gazprom if it would not fill the storage facility with gas.
UNICEF: Nearly 100 children were killed in Ukraine in April alone. Actual figures could be significantly higher with the conflict creating a child protection crisis.
Four high-ranking congressional Democrats sent formal requests to the CEOs of YouTube, TikTok, Twitter and Facebook’s parent company, Meta, asking them to archive content that could be used as evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations: Russia does not see any diplomatic solution of the situation in Ukraine, given the position of Kyiv.
· There are military training camps for children from 7 to 18 years of where future fighters are trained.
Bloomberg: International Energy Agency Russian oil revenues increased by 50% in 2022. According to the agency, Russian profit this year is about $20 billion every month; sales of about 8 million barrels of oil per day.
Ukrinform: UN Human Rights Council demands an immediate cessation of hostilities against Ukraine, and attacks on civilians. Also, the UN calls on the Russian Federation to provide access to persons taken out of Ukraine and held in Russia or Russian occupied territories.
National Council for Electronic Media: Latvia, next week Russian social networks 'Vkontakti', 'Odnoklasnyky' and 'My World' will be blocked.
'Siemens' announced that from, May 13, it is terminating service maintenance contracts with Russian Railways; including the high-speed 'Sapsan', between St. Petersburg, Moscow and Nyzhnii Novhorod.
British Defense Secretary: Did not rule out the possibility of supplying Ukraine with short-range air defense systems in the case of an "escalation of the conflict."
CNN: EU Commissioner for Transport is proposing a simplified plan for the export of Ukrainian goods. The plan is aimed at integrating the infrastructure of Ukraine and the European Union to export 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain over the next three months.
European Commission: Payment for Russian gas in rubles is a violation of European sanctions against the Russia.
· Bloomberg: Italian Oil-Gas Group Eni intends to pay for Russian gas in May, even if the initial euro payment is converted to rubles.
Apple began to disable mobile phone payments for Russian users. According to media reports, the payment error occurred for subscribers to MegaFon and Yota mobile networks.
German Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy: Germany cannot allow a full embargo on Russian gas.
CNN: The bulk carrier "Sailor Pozynich" with stolen Ukrainian grain in the Syrian port of Latakia According to the CNN team, in late April, the bulker dropped anchor in Crimea, turned off its tracker and went across the Bosphorus to Egypt. The cargo was not accepted in Egypt and Lebanon.
LBC radio: British Prime Minister said in an interview that he sees no way to normalize relations with Putin.
Unverified Report: Poland banned Gazprom from transiting gas through the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. The Yamal-Europe pipeline is one of the three main routes for transporting Russian gas to Europe, along with the Nord Stream 1 underwater gas pipeline and Ukrainian transit pipelines.
Turkish media reports: The USA demanded that Greece provide Ukraine with S-300 air defense system, other air defense systems and armored vehicles.
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Ukraine's application for EU membership will be discussed on by the heads of states and governments in European Council in June.
Reuters: Czech Minister of Defense: The Czech Republic is negotiating acquisition of German Leopard Tanks, and this will permit Prague to send more tanks to Ukraine.
European Commission: The European Union will provide Ukraine with 600 million euros by May 20
Social Media: Rally in Geneva in support of the defenders of Mariupol.
Poland issued a postage stamp with a portrait of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyі. It sold out within an hour.
Nike terminated a marketing contract with FC Spartak, a Moscow football club.
Finnish Government: Yesterday Finland demonstrated massive bomb shelters. The bomb shelter, which can accommodate the population of an entire city, has a football field, a cafeteria, a playground, a gym, and other needed facilities.
· Finnish Ambassador to NATO: «Finland does not feel a direct military threat from Russia; the country is joining NATO due to significant security changes».
Shell agreed to sell Russian retail business to Lukoil. The British concern said that the sale of more than 400 gas stations and a plant to produce lubricants will save 350 jobs
Russian Presidential Spokesman: Finland's accession to NATO will become a threat to Russia.
· Russian Foreign Ministry: Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps to eliminate threats due to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO -
US Secretary of State called for an end to the Russian blockade of Ukrainian goods.
Lithuanian Minister of Transport and Communications: There are only two real ways to export grain from Ukraine: unblock Ukrainian ports with the help of international institutions (UN or European Commission) or create a humanitarian cargo corridor through Belarus.
NATIONAL
Defence Intelligence: Ukraine will fight for the Zmiinnyi island as long as it takes. The island is of strategic importance for both Ukraine and Russia because it allows control of surface and air situation in the south of Ukraine. The Zmiinnyi island is also strategically important for landing Russian tactical marines. Control of the island may also be important, as a means to claim ownership of offshore oil and gas deposits. Yesterday, near Zmiinnyi Island, a Russian supply ship was heavily damaged.
The Institute for the Study of War:
Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izium-Sloviansk-Debaltseve line in favour of shallower encirclements of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. It's unclear if Russian forces can encircle/capture Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, even if their efforts focus on that much-reduced objective. Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war, and these areas are unlikely to be different, - American analysts write.
Reuters: Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has spent 8.3 billion dollars (245.1 billion hryvnias) on military needs.
Deputy Prime Minister: Evacuation from "Azovstal will begin with the seriously wounded people." Negotiations are underway and involve the Red Cross and United Nations.
Crimean Tatar spokesman: Turkey offered the Russian Federation to take Ukrainian military personnel out of Mariupol and guarantee that until the end of the war they would no longer fight, but would remain in Turkey. Russia refused the offer.
A Turkish businessman sent 20 tons of humanitarian aid at his own cost to Ukraine. The businessman said he will help as long as there are people who need it.
Ministry of Defense: Ukrainian military personnel losses are many times less than the losses of the Russian personnel.
· The Ukrainian Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed an entire Battalion Tactical Group near Bilohorivka, Luhansk region. The battalion-tactical group was part of the Russian 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Of the 70 pieces of equipment, the Russians lost more than 50.
· Russia is moving additional artillery units to the border areas of the Bryansk region to increase the bombardment of settlements in the Chernihiv region.
Parliament: Banned forced debt collection for communal services to the end of the war. Communal services refers to payments made by residents in multi-family buildings to district governments.
Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights: As a result of Russian shelling 1,721 educational institutions in Ukraine were damaged, including 139 of which were completely destroyed.
State Security Service: Intercepted a call between a Russian soldier and his father. The son tells his father that following a platoon’s refusal to attack the entire platoon was handcuffed, arrested and taken away.
Forbes: Ukraine has resumed pork and beef exports through Romanian ports.
Economist Podcast: Russia and Ukraine account for approximately 80% of Egypt’s grain supplies; 70% for the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Economist Podcast: The curfew in Kyiv is being extended to 11PM, starting this weekend.
State Emergency Service: It may take 5-10 years to clear Ukraine of explosives. On a daily basis between 2,000 to 5,000 explosive items are destroyed. Until just recently, WW-II era landmines killed 40-50 Ukrainians annually
The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine put forward legislation seize the assets of 'Sberbank of Russia' and 'Prominvestbank'.
Ukraine Business News (UBN): Privat Bank, Ukraine’s largest bank, reported that over the last two weeks there has been a 42% increase in non-cash payments through debit card terminals. Ukrainian employers often issue debit cards to employees, as a means to pay salaries. This increase might suggest an uptick in employment/re-employment by Ukrainian companies.
Operational command Skhid (East). On May 12, the Ukrainian military repelled six attacks of the Russian troops. Ukrainian forces destroyed up to 180 Russian soldiers, six tanks, 6 Infantry fighting vehicles, 2 APCs, 2 LAMTTs, six locomotive artillery, 1 MLRS, four mortars, and 3 AT-Ts.
KHARKIV
Luhansk Regional Military Administration: All gas stations and fuel depots have been destroyed and small quantities of fuel are now being imported into the region because there is no place to store it, and it is also unsafe due to the increase in shelling. Fuel is for generators and special services.
· In Bilohorivka, Ukrainian defenders once again destroyed the pontoon bridge of Russian troops. There are dozens of dead Russian soldiers and about 70 pieces of destroyed equipment.
· Russians have been trying to break through Komyshuvakha and Rubizhne all day, but without success. The fighting for Voievodivka continues.
· Russians shoot residents of captured Popasne because they (residents - ed.) love Ukraine. They can take life for a Ukrainian picture on the phone. Ukrainian activists are simply disappearing
· Russians are storming the Hirske and Popasne areas: they destroyed almost 60 houses and damaged the bridge in Rubizhne.
Donetsk Regional Military Administration: At the moment, the evacuation of residents and supply of humanitarian aid to Severodonetsk is impossible, because the road is being shelled. Up to 15 thousand residents remain in Severodonetsk.
· 'Schemes': The area of mass graves near Mariupol are increasing as seen on satellite images from Planet Labs. The photos were taken in the village of Staryi Krym and the village of Vynohradne, Donetsk region.
· Yesterday’s casualties of Russian shelling: 2 killed in Novoselivka, 1 in Avdiivka and 1 in Lyman. Another 5 people were injured.
Adviser to the Mayor: The Russians intend to integrate Mariupol together with Donbas into Russia. To do this, they plan to hold a referendum, which is likely to take place on May 15.
· Lack of food in Mariupol: "Take the data of the Russians for the day. During the day, 3500 food packages were delivered and distributed to Mariupol, 6110 people were provided with hot meals. Between 130,000 and 170,000 people remain in the city. Of whom only 9,510 were fed per day or 6.5 per cent of the total.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Operational command Pivden (South): Russia is preparing to capture the entire Kherson region; they are rebuilding resources, restoring technical capacity, and preparing engineering units for pontoon and bridge crossings -.
Russian depots of missile and artillery armament and ammunition were blown up for the 19th time in the Chornobaivka, Kherson region.
Yesterday, Russian soldiers shelled the village of Osokorivka twice in the Kherson region with phosphorus shells.
Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration:
· On May 12, Russians fired banned cluster munitions at the village of Velyka Kostromka, Dnipropetrovsk region. As a result of the shelling, an energy infrastructure facility was destroyed. According to preliminary data, one person died, there are wounded.
Odesa Regional Military Administration
· According to preliminary information, the burning Russian naval vessels 'Vsevolod Bobrov' is being towed to Sevastopol from Zmiinyi ('Snake') Island. Cause of the fire on the less than year old logistics supply vessel is not clear.
Odesa City Hall: Soldiers preparing defensive fortification found ancient Greek amphorae dated approximately to the 4th-5th century BC. The finds were handed over to the staff of the Odesa Archaeological Museum.
· The Vorontsov Palace, a monument of architecture of national importance, was damaged by rocket attacks. The blast wave damaged the windows and stucco elements.
Zaporozhie Regional Military Administration: In Polohy, Zaporizhzhia region, the Oil Extraction Plant is on fire - one of the largest in Ukraine.
· A Russian cruise missile hit the island of Khortytsia and started a fire. No infrastructure damage and no victims or injured. Khortytsia was the base of Cossack operations from the 15th to 17th centuries until it was destroyed by Catherine the Great.
· CNN: Russian military continuing to use the Ukrainian airbase in occupied Melitopol. At least seven helicopters are seen at the airbase in a satellite image taken on May 12. The use of the airbase by the Russians is significant due to its strategic location.
REST OF UKRAINE
Sumy Regional Administration: Russians shelled the village of Novi Vyrky, Sumy region; one person died.
· A municipal tractor hit a land mine which exploded. The explosion occurred near the hospital in Trostyanets, at the location of where a Russian tank fired at the hospital. One person was injured.
Chernihiv Regional State Administration:
· In the village Senkivka, Chernihiv region, situated near the boarders with Belarus and Russia, the government plans to dismantle the "Three sisters" statue, symbolizing " friendship between Ukraine, Belarus and Russia
· The number of wounded from yesterday’s airstrike on Novhorod-Siverskyi increased to 19.
Poltava Regional Military Administration: 12 missiles hit the Kremenchuh refinery.
· Explosions were reported in other parts of Poltava region.
Mayor of Irpin: 70% of Irpin infrastructure has been destroyed. Surface damage to 8,651 city objects, 2,738 objects were partially destroyed, and 885 were completely destroyed. 37 residential buildings in the city are not subject to restoration, they will be demolished.
Washington Post: UN Human Rights Council considers investigation of war crimes in Kyiv region.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis