Ukraine – 5/12/2023 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
May 12, 2023
Bernard-Henri Levy’s “Slava Ukrainii”
Last night I attended a showing of “Slava Ukrainii. I took my cousin. Levy was there.
For me, the highlight of the evening took place before the movie started, with the appearance of 2 of the Azovstal Defenders, including Anna Zaitseva who endured the siege of Azovstal plant in Mariupol, along with her newborn son.
Included in Zaitseva’s remarks was praise for the owner of Azovstal, Rinat Akhmetov. According to Zaitseva, shortly before Russia’s latest invasion began, Akhmetov ordered a large quantity of supplies to be placed in the underground passages under the plant, where the defenders held out until they were ordered to surrender. Zaitseva said that without the supplies that Akhmetov placed in the passageways, they wouldn’t have been able to survive as long as they did. She said that Akhmetov has also set up a fund to help the Azovstal defenders and their families.
As for the movie itself, I was disappointed. In America, when I was growing up, it was common to take a family vacation during summer breaks, to tour the national parks and other points of interest. The movie seemed to be Levy’s “tour” of various parts of the war zone, with very little effort to tie each stop together in an underlying theme. My cousin’s comment was – “too much shooting out of car windows.”
It was almost as if he had a checklist that dictated the movie’s construct:
· Dead people lying on the street in Bucha – check
· Missile strike on an apartment building – check
· Views of destroyed buildings - check
· Short interviews with elderly people – check
· Tour of Russian torture chambers - check
I was surprised by a 3 things Levy didn’t cover:
· Mobile hospitals in Bakhmut caring for wounded
· Utility workers who, despite the predictions of the pundits, heroically kept Ukraine’s electricity grid running
· Railroad employees who kept trains running
In my opinion, all 3 are significant oversights.
There was also a bit too much of Levy himself. There was a clip showing him speaking from the main stage at Independence Square during Euromaidan. I don’t quite see the significance of this clip, other than to illustrate Levy’s efforts to establish his own importance. His narrative was often overly florid, with references comparing Ukrainian leadership to Charles De Gaulle, or the war with previous wars Levy has covered such as Bosnia. The war in Ukraine stands on its own, as do Ukraine’s leaders.
The most compelling part of the movie was a scene near Kherson, where Levy and his team accompanied a squad of Ukrainian soldiers who were responding to a message from 2 Russian soldiers, on an app that contains a phone number that Russian soldiers use to voice their intent to surrender. The app provides the location of the caller. They went out to the village where the Russians were located, but all the while assuming that it was a trap. Fortunately, it wasn’t a trap, and the 2 Russians who had used the app to surrender were taken into custody.
I was critical of “Winter on Fire,” the documentary about Euromaidan that was nominated for an Academy Award for best full-length documentary. I thought there was too much gratuitous violence. For this I was criticized for being “un-patriotic.” There was far more to Euromaidan than the violence portrayed in the movie, given that the events that took place during Euromaidan have had a profound effect on Ukraine successes fighting back against Russia’s latest invasion.
Admittedly, movies like “Slava Ukrainii” are very difficult to make. I complement Levy’s taking on an almost impossible task.
Calling out South Africa
More precisely the U.S. Ambassador to South Africa calling out South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress (“ANC”), for allegedly supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia. Here, I’m distinguishing the ANC from most of the rest of the S. African people. Good for the Ambassador!
The ANC’s “excuse” for supplying weapons to Russia was that the former Soviet Union supported the ANC in their fight against Apartheid, therefore S. Africa should respond in Russia’s moment of need. This “excuse” is completely mis-placed for many reasons, including:
· Russia is not the Soviet Union.
· However, given Russia’s claims that it is the successor state to the former Soviet Union, then Russia should be held accountable for the often-brutal colonialist policies of the former Soviet Union and, before that, the Romanovs, in Central Asia, the Far East and the Caucuses.
· The African Union, of which S. Africa is a member, has a very strong policies against territorial claims by one country against a neighboring country, and the AU has a history of backing up this policy by force, or the treat of force. Therefore, to support Russia in its aggression against a neighboring country, Ukraine, is against everything the AU, and presumably S. Africa, stands for.
The ANC’s recent history in caring for their own people is, to put it mildly, lacking. Perhaps the ANC should focus more on protecting its own people, rather than supporting a country that tramples on everything African states claim that they stand for.
Battlefield Developments
“Reporting From Ukraine” continues to cover Ukraine’s successes in rolling up Russian defenders north and south of Bakhmut. This may not be the Ukrainian counteroffensive that the pundits are expecting, but it potentially could yield significant results, including:
· Encircling Russian defenders inside Bakhmut.
· Attacking Russian defenders along the contact line north and south of Bakhmut from the rear.
· Liberating Lysychansk and Sverodonetsk, cities taken by the Russians last summer.
Both Reporting From Ukraine and the Latest Denys report on the large quantities of equipment Ukraine has acquired around Bakhmut from fleeing Russians. At around 13:20 into his video Denys has an interesting analysis of the innards of the Storm Shadow cruise missile that was recently provided to Ukraine by the UK. Storm Shadow will almost all of Crimea into range, but not the Kerch Bridge, and it can be fired from a MiG-29.
At 12:05 into Denys’ video he wonders why there are planes flying in circles inside Estonian airspace. I have it on good authority that it was part of a night parachute drop that was held during a NATO exercise in Estonia.
Analysis of the Abrams Tank/PBS “Newshour”
A very comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the Abrams tanks, that Ukraine expects to receive from the US by the end of the year. While it is arguably the best main battle tank in the world, the Abrams requires much tender loving care along with large quantities of jet fuel for its gas turbine engine.
“Russia’s Fighting Power is Exhausted in Ukraine”/Daily Telegraph
Dominic Nicholls gives his views about the underlying problems faced by Russia in Ukraine. Well worth watching.
· Nicholls claims the Russian Army is “not a learning organization.” Based on events in Ukraine over the past 14 ½ months, this is an understatement.
· He’s very interesting about how the British Army in Burma during WW-2 was a “learning organization.
Using Eurovision’s scoring system, Nicholls awards the Russian Army – 0.
5/12/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon May 11 to 12:00 noon May 12, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Friday May 12
11:02 am: Polish Senate approves resolution on Ukraine's accession to NATO under accelerated procedure – Polskie Radio.
· As stated in the text of the document, "Ukraine today has the strongest army on the continent with extraordinary combat experience. The Ukrainian army is rapidly rearming itself with NATO equipment and using operational arts and tactics developed for decades by Western allies."
8:00 am: Germany will buy Boeing CH-47F Chinook heavy military transport helicopters from the United States, - Reuters.
7:59 am: Clashes resume on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, killing one person in a shootout, Xinhua.
7:46 am The Times: Volodymyr Zelensky was denied the opportunity to deliver a speech via video link in the final of the Eurovision Song Contest
· "Mr. Zelensky's request to speak to Eurovision audiences, although it was made with commendable intentions, unfortunately cannot be accepted," the European Broadcasting Union said, explaining that the contest has always been non-political in nature.
12:29 am: British intelligence updates map of battles in Ukraine
· Russians are concentrating their forces on the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Mariinsky and Liman directions, carrying out attacks there. The fiercest battles are fought for Bakhmut and Marinka.
· Meanwhile, the Russian military is trying to improve tactical positions in the Kupiansk direction. They also carry out ground strikes near Kupiansk and Kreminna.
12:00 am: Elon Musk resigns as CEO of Twitter. He said that in this position he would be replaced by another person, whose name has not yet been named.
· Musk himself will take the place of executive chairman and technical director.
Thursday May 11
9:56 pm: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may visit Rome in the coming days to meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
· "It is possible that the Pope will meet with the Ukrainian president on Saturday," Vatican sources said.
7:41 pm Politico: The US sees no signs of PMC Wagner withdrawing from Bakhmut, despite statements by its handler Prigozhin.
· A spokesman for the National Security Council urged not to believe Prigozhin's statements about the shortage of shells and the withdrawal of forces from Bakhmut, calling them "political posturing due to the conflict between him and the Russian military leadership."
6:43 pm: Representatives of Ukraine, Turkey, Russia and the United Nations did not agree on the extension of the "grain deal" following the two-day meeting, the Turkish Defense Ministry said.
· Minister of Infrastructure Kubrakov said that further consultations on unblocking the Initiative will be online.
· The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the "grain deal" will cease to exist if by May 18 the parties fail to "reach a consensus taking into account Russian demands."
06:27 pm: Poland has already handed over 14 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine out of 28 promised, the country's permanent mission to the EU.
6:08 pm: Eastern EU countries call on the European Commission to adjust the ban on food imports from Ukraine, according to PAP.
· The agriculture ministers of the five countries of the European Union called on the European Commission to correct the rules restricting the import of Ukrainian agricultural products.
· According to the letter, the import ban imposed on May 2 does not apply to goods imported under contracts concluded before that date, creating a risk that undated contracts may be cleared at customs.
5:36 pm: The EU called on Georgia not to allow Russian aircraft into its territory.
· This was stated by the representative of the European Commission on foreign policy Peter Stano during a briefing.
· "We call on Georgia, which claims to be a candidate for EU membership, to join these sanctions [against Russia]," Stano said.
4:36 pm Bloomberg: For a future counteroffensive, Ukraine has received an arsenal of weapons worth more than $30 billion.
· According to military analysts, Ukraine's future on the battlefield will depend on factors that go far beyond equipment — training, reconnaissance, and the ability to overcome Russian air superiority.
03:35pm UK Defence Secretary: All the Challenger 2 tanks promised to Kyiv have arrived in Ukraine.
3:17 pm: Japan to allocate $1 billion to Ukraine's neighbours to help accept Ukrainian refugees.
Sky News.
· Financing will be provided through the state-owned Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), which usually helps in the form of lending, guarantees and equity investments.
2:50 pm BBC: British Defence Minister Ben Wallace has confirmed that London is transferring Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv .
12:51 pm: The European Union will prepare 1 million shells for Ukraine, as well as more than 1000 missiles.
· This was stated by the head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrell at the European Conference on Defense and Security.
· According to him, the EU has already trained more than 17,000 Ukrainian troops and plans that by the end of the year this number will reach 30,000.
12:36pm: The UK has already delivered Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of an expected counteroffensive.
· It is reported by CNN, citing several senior Western officials.
12:06 p.m.: The New York Times called Putin "the most dangerous fool in the world."
· Under this title, an article was published in the author's column of three-time Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman.
· In his view, Putin never had a plan B, and now he can neither win, nor lose, nor stop.
NATIONAL
Friday May 12
9:21 am: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun "shaping operations" ahead of a long-awaited counteroffensive, a senior Pentagon official told CNN.
· According to him, strikes on Russian weapons depots, command centers and accumulations of equipment, which have intensified recently, are preparing the battlefield for the start of offensive operations.
7:09 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The Russians continue to focus their main efforts on the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions - 44 enemy attacks have been repelled. The fiercest fighting continues for the cities of Bakhmut and Marinka.
· Over the past day, they inflicted 6 missile strikes, in particular on the cities of Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka and Zaporizhzhia. In addition, 59 air strikes and 95 MLRS attacks were recorded.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 14 strikes on areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation,
· Besides, 9 enemy UAVs of various types were destroyed. Missile troops and artillery units hit 11 control points, 19 areas of concentration of manpower, 1 ammunition depot, 1 fuel and lubricant depot, 9 artillery units in a firing position, 1 air defense system and 2 more important Russian targets.
12:45 am: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine commented on the delivery of Storm Shadow missiles and expressed hope that Russian conscripts will be able to learn the basics of geometry.
Thursday May 11
11:41 pm: While digging trenches, soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine found shells from the Second World War. Video from social networks.
8:57 pm: The Ukrainian military understands that during the counteroffensive they must bypass the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Energoatom chairman Petro Kotin said in an interview with CNN.
· "They are obliged to preserve the integrity of the station, even if it is captured by the Russians. This is understood by absolutely all our military," Kotin said.
· He said that Ukraine could return the plant without the use of force simply by cutting off the supply lines of the facility.
6:58 pm General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: During this day, the enemy launched 6 missile strikes, in particular, on the cities of Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka and Zaporizhzhia.
· In addition, 46 air strikes and 69 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on positions of Ukrainian troops and settlements were recorded. Also during the day, the enemy carried out more than 30 attacks. The fiercest fighting continues for the cities of Bakhmut and Marinka.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 13 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel and military equipment,
· In addition, during this day, Ukrainian defenders destroyed 7 enemy UAVs of various types.
· Missile troops and artillery units hit 8 control points, 13 areas of concentration of manpower, 1 ammunition depot, 1 fuel and lubricant depot, 5 artillery units in firing positions, 1 air defense system and 2 more important enemy targets - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
4:20 p.m.: The Security Service served notice of suspicion to three former MPs from the Party of Regions, the SBU press service reports.
· New evidence has been collected of the guilt of former people's deputies Oleg Tsarev, Dmitry Svyatash and Igor Markov, who assisted Russia in waging an aggressive war against Ukraine. Now they are hiding from justice in the territory of the aggressor country.
· SBU investigators informed all three defendants of suspicion of treason committed under martial law.
2:17 p.m.: European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ilva Johansson arrives in Ukraine to discuss general security issues.
· Johansson met with Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko and said he was "achieving excellent results."
1:29 pm: We learned from school that 2+2 is 4, and that Taras Shevchenko was born in 1814. However, this does not make us mathematicians or historians.
· Instead, in military topics, pseudo-experts who do not have real qualifications regularly come across. Why?
· Many responses in the video "MILITARY PSEUDO-EXPERTS | Do not be fooled by information operations of Russia" is a project of the initiative "How not to become a vegetable".
· Full video 👉
1:10 pm: The more powerful Ukraine is in the counteroffensive, the further the Russians will "run somewhere towards themselves."
· This was stated by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with public broadcasters.
· "But I cannot say that immediately after this counteroffensive, Ukraine's sovereignty will be fully restored, because this is a war," Zelensky said.
Mordor - russia
Friday May 12
10:13 am: The press service of PMC Wagner curator Prigozhin published his letter to Shoigu urging him to visit Bakhmut.
· In his address, Prigozhin noted that his mercenaries continue their offensive on Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut. However, on the flanks defended by servicemen of the Russian army, the Armed Forces of Ukraine made several successful counterattacks.
9:39 am: A fire broke out in Dzerzhinsky near Moscow.
· Warehouses near the CHP are on fire, according to local media.
KHARKIV
Thursday May 11
5:07 pm Kharkiv RMA: Today, Russians shelled the village of Velykyi Burluk, Kupiansk district.
· "As a result of the shelling, an explosive and shrapnel wounds were sustained by a 16-year-old girl and a 43-year-old woman.
· Both victims are hospitalized, now doctors are treating them."
12:21 pm Kharkiv RMA: Russian shelling of Vovchansk killed a 67-year-old man and damaged at least 5 private residential buildings.
· In the village of Fyholivka, a 49-year-old civilian man was wounded during mortar shelling. A private household was damaged.
· This morning in Izyum, a 44-year-old civilian man was blown up by an anti-personnel mine "Petalka". Doctors assist him.
DONETSK
Friday May 12
11:51 am: Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky published the work of the Ukrainian military in Bakhmut.
· "The soldiers recorded the movement of the enemy's assault group. The coordinates were promptly transmitted to the artillery. With two accurate shots, the enemy group was destroyed," Syrsky said.
11:19am Institute for the Study of War: ISW: Russia 'Largely Abandoned' Idea of Encircling Ukrainian Forces in Bakhmut
· This is evidenced by the deployment of low-skilled Russian forces on the flanks around the city. The Russian Ministry of Defense probably "began deprioritizing efforts in the Bakhmut direction in January 2023" when it stopped the recruitment of Wagner PMC prisoners.
9:57 am: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced in the Bakhmut direction, not a single position has been lost in the city, - Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maliar.
· "The enemy failed to realize their plans; the enemy suffered heavy losses of manpower; our defenders advanced 2 km forward in the Bakhmut direction; we have not lost any position in Bakhmut this week," Hanna Maliar said.
Thursday May 11
11:14 pm: In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, a bust of Lenin, which the Russians installed after the occupation of the city in the city garden, was destroyed
6:16 pm Donetsk RMA: Eight people were injured in a missile strike on Toretsk.
· According to him, Russian troops hit the residential sector with Smerch MLRS, three houses were partially destroyed.
5:21 pm Office of the President Donetsk: 6 people were wounded as a result of enemy shelling of Toretsk.
· A missile strike was launched on the city, the hit was recorded in one of the adjacent territories of the city. Doctors provide all necessary assistance to the victims.
ZAPORIZHIA
Friday May 12
7:23 am: There was a strong explosion in the center of temporarily occupied Melitopol.
· This was announced by Mayor Ivan Fedorov.
2:14 am Social Networks: Explosions heard in Zaporizhzhia
Thursday May 11
4:05 pm Zaporizhia RMA: Russians launched 4 air strikes on Preobrazhenska hromada.
· "As a result of the attack, houses and cars were damaged. Information about the victims is being clarified," Malashko wrote.
DNIPRO
Friday May 12
8:43 am: As a result of the evening attack of the Myriv community, an outbuilding was destroyed, 7 more were damaged, - DOR head Mykola Lukashuk.
· A medical facility, an administrative building, 11 private houses, a minibus, a passenger car, gas pipelines, and electricity networks were damaged. People are unharmed.
· During the night, the Chervonohryhorivska, Marhanetska communities and Nikopol itself came under fire. No one was injured.
Thursday May 11
2:33 pm: National Guardsmen shot down a Russian reconnaissance UAV in the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to the National Guard of Ukraine.
· "During the inspection of the drone, found that it contains explosives", – stated in the message.
KHERSON
Friday May 12
11:38 am Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson
11:34 am Kherson RMA: At night, Russian warplanes hit Kizomis again.
· The Russians dropped two guided aerial bombs on a peaceful settlement. Two residential buildings were completely destroyed, eight more houses and an administrative building were damaged. No one was injured.
10:45 am Kherson RMA: Russians shelled peaceful settlements of Kherson region 80 times.
· The Russians attacked Kherson itself 4 times, firing 12 shells at the city. They hit residential areas of settlements in the region; school buildings, hospitals and the territory and facilities of two critical infrastructure enterprises. One person was killed and four others were injured.
12:18 am Social Networks: Explosions heard again in Kherson
Thursday May 11
9:34 pm Beryslav State Administration: Russians hit Beryslav district of Kherson region, wounded.
· "The village of Odradokamianka of the Tyagyn territorial community was under attack by the enemy . As a result of the shelling, spouses of pensioners were injured and were taken to hospital," the statement said.
7:57 pm Air Command South: Ukrainian defenders shot down a Russian drone in Kherson region.
· "In Kherson region, the forces and means of air defense of the air command "South" destroyed the Russian reconnaissance UAV "Orlan-10".
6:10 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard again in Kherson.
5:52 pm Kherson RMA: Russian artillery hit one of Kherson's educational institutions.
· Due to the hit of an enemy shell, a fire broke out, which was liquidated by rescuers. No people were injured.
4:49 pm Kherson RMA: Russian army loots hospital in temporarily occupied Hola Prystan.
· "Everything is taken out of the medical institution - furniture, equipment and machinery. An army of looters even tears sockets from the walls," Prokudin wrote.
MYKOLAIV
Thursday May 11
2:07 pm SBU press service: The Security Service exposed an enemy informant who "pointed" a Russian missile at a residential high-rise building in Mykolaiv.
· According to the investigation, the attacker turned out to be a local resident whom the Russian special service involved in cooperation in August last year.
· As a result of enemy shelling, 8 civilians were killed, including a minor child. Now the attacker faces up to 15 years in prison or life imprisonment.
KYIV
Thursday May 11
8:36 pm Kyiv City Military Administration: "No air defense in the world always guarantees 100% security. The enemy will continue to strike at Kyiv, so everyone must be responsible for their lives and the lives and health of their relatives and friends."
· He stressed that many people not only do not hide in shelters, but also deliberately go out into the open to observe the work of air defense. Also, some people start making videos and uploading them to social networks, which is unacceptable.
10:27 pm: After the liberation of the Kyiv region from occupation in the spring of 2022, 281 people are still considered missing.
· This was announced by Head of the Main Department of the National Police in Kyiv region Andriy Nebytov.
· "Unfortunately, 191 bodies remain unidentified to this day," Nebytov added.
8:16 p.m.: Under the procedural guidance of the Kyiv Regional Prosecutor's Office, two Russian servicemen were served suspicion notices on the facts of ill-treatment of civilians (Article 438 (1) of the Criminal Code of Ukraine), - the Prosecutor General's Office.
· According to the investigation, in March 2022, while in the occupied village of Bohdanivka, Brovary district, the suspects saw a local resident in the forest belt. To detain the man, they shot him in the leg and brought him in an armored vehicle to their place of deployment, where they starved him and did not provide him with medical care.
3:51 pm: Kyiv Mayor Klitschko appeals to Berlin Mayor Kai Wegner regarding free treatment of seriously wounded soldiers.
· "About 250-500 Ukrainian servicemen will need treatment for lost limbs every month. At least some of these patients could be treated – but at the moment, unfortunately, it is not possible to reimburse the costs in your city.
· We are not always sure that Germany will cover the cost of treatment for our soldiers who come to Germany to treat the consequences of complex war wounds.
· We need... pragmatic and safe explanation of funding by Berlin and Germany," Vitali Klitschko said in a letter to the newly elected mayor of Berlin, reports the international newspaper Politico.
1:50 pm: Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko inspected the first 6 subway cars that the Kyiv subway received from Warsaw as a charitable aid to the capital.
· "First of all, they (wagons - ed.) will be used as technical donors for major repairs of existing rolling stock.
· The delivery of all 60 cars will take place in stages during this year," Klitschko wrote.
CHERNIHIV
Thursday May 11
9:54 pm Social Networks: Explosions heard in Chernihiv region.
SUMY
Friday May 12
10:40 am Social Networks: Explosions heard in Sumy region
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/the-nazi-streets-of-ukraine?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1083041&post_id=121065925&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
For the dispassionate observer watching the histrionics burblings of both sides here we only need to ask one question:
How good is a govt and people that happily sacrifice one quarter million of their own in the cause of denying one quarter of their own population of their freedom?
And glory is a stated goal of the elimination of a people. A people. Not a govt. Not a soldier, an army, a force. A people. Men, women and children.
Their 'glorious goal'. Their ambition.