Bob Homans March 9 sitrep

20220310

Ukraine – 3/9 Sitrep
Chernobyl
CERN
Timothy Snyder – Ways to Support Ukraine
Letter to Biden from Prominent Ukrainian Women
Russian Losses

3/9 Sitrep – As usual, I will be adding commentary to my friend’s report (in bold face)

The United Nations estimates that 861 civilians have been wounded and 474 killed since the start of the Russian invasion.  61 hospitals have been fully or partially destroyed over this period.

Yesterday the “Opposition Party for Health and Life”, which was the pro-Russian party in Ukraine’s parliament, announced that it will support the government in its fight with Invaders, that its members will join self-defense forces and started donating money to hospitals and in support of refugees.  Once loyal to Putin and Russia, the Party has made a 180 degree turn to Ukraine.  I suspect that Russia is rapidly losing other loyalists.  This is potentially significant, for two reasons: First, it is likely that Russia is counting on members of the Opposition Party for Life to join any puppet government that Russia was considering establishing in Ukraine.   Second, this represents a break with Viktor Medvedchuk, one of the leaders of the Opposition Party.   Putin is Godfather to one of Medvedchuk’s daughters.   Medvedchuk himself, having been under house arrest, escaped and he is presumed to be hiding somewhere in Kyiv.

Former President of Ukraine, Yanukovich, who ordered the murder of over 100 Ukrainian civilians during the 2013/14 Maidan, and fled the country to Russia in 2014 with an estimated 2-3 billion USD in cash, was flown to Minsk.  There he appealed to Zelensky to capitulate, offering what Yanukovich called “Fatherly Advice.”  Pres. Zelenskyy ignored Yanukovich’s Fatherly advice.   Yanukovich has been rumored to be one of the possibilities to become President of a puppet government.   Any puppet government, including one led by Yanukovich, would be thrown out almost as soon as it’s established, unless Russia is willing to put in up to 600,000 troops (Financial Times’ estimate) to keep it in power.

Kyiv and Environs - Kyiv was under attack over the last few days.  Last night the Russians tried to take Irpin, a satellite community west of Kyiv, but were repulsed.  The day before they tried to take Irpin as well.  On that day the invading Russians employed two battalions, one of which lost 60 soldiers and half of its equipment.  The remainder retreated and is going back to Russia.  The other also retreated and is awaiting human and physical reinforcements.  On Monday self-defense forces destroyed two columns that tried to approach Kyiv from the west.

Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel are 3 inner suburbs of Kyiv, located close to each other northwest of Kyiv.   I’ll collectively call them the “3 Cities.”  All 3 cities have been experiencing heavy fighting since the first day or the war.  Hostomel is the site of an airport that the Russians tried to take on the first day, to use it as a base for an assault against Kyiv by airborne troops but were thrown back.

We live in a community called Vynograda, which lies between the 3 cities and Central Kyiv.   In between the 3 cities and Vynograda is a thick forest, where I often went cross-country skiing.   There are almost no paved roads in that forest, and in the Spring the ground can be very boggy, where someone walking can easily get stuck, in other words hardly ideal tank country.   It is inconceivable to me that Russian armor could move from the 3 cities into Kyiv, at least from that direction.  

If Russia can move armor through the forest, it would encounter a road complex within Vynograda that appears to offer good conditions for attacks by anti-tank rockets, small arms and Molotov Cocktails.   Before the beginning of the war, local street vendors in Vynograda were pouring the contents of beer onto the pavement, passing them to others who were filling the empties with gasoline.

Going into Kyiv from Vynograda would likely involve moving down a 4-lane arterial with a broad divider.   There is one bridge, over railroad tracks, that connects the arterial to an inner suburb of Kyiv called Minskaya.   Ukrainians would almost certainly blow that bridge.  All along that arterial, there are prime locations conducive to launching anti-tank rockets.

To summarize, the route Russian armor would likely take to get to Central Kyiv from the 3 Cities consists of cul-de-sacs overlaying cul-de-sacs, including Obolon where Russian tanks have already visited at the beginning of the war, resulting in a tank column being wiped out.  

Over the last two days rockets were also sent against Boryspil and Brovary, destroying a military barrack in Borispol, and civilian housing in both communities.   Boryspil is the location of Kyiv’s main international airport.

West of Kyiv - The city of Zhytomir, and other communities including Berdiansk, Malyn, Korosten, and Radomyshyl were hit by rocket attacks.  These attacks hit civilian housing only.  On Monday self-defense forces in Zhytomir oblast destroyed three columns and captured operational tanks and munitions trucks.  The prize capture was the newest Russian tank the Armada.  According to the self-defense forces they also captured 40 plus soldiers fleeing the burning columns. 

Zhytomyr is an oblast capital around 80 miles west of Kyiv.   Berdiansk, Malyn, Korosten and Radomyshyl are all located north of Zytomyr.   This is a potential invasion route.   Korosten is located on the major land route from Kyiv to the Polish border.  The road, one of the best in Ukraine, was originally built by the Soviets, to quickly move armored columns toward Poland.  If it is Russia’s intention to cut off a major source of arms supplies coming to Ukraine from Poland, it would almost certainly involve an incursion going south from Belarus toward Korostan.  

South of Zhytomir in Vinnytsia Oblast the Russians sent eight long range cruise missiles and hit Vinnytsia city municipal airport.  According to Bellingcat, an investigative company, Putin was upset because the rockets used, X-101s are Russia’s strategic long range cruise missiles and it has less than a thousand of them.

There was very limited fighting in Kherson Oblast during this period. 

North of Kyiv - Chernihiv has been under constant aerial and ground attack over the last two days.  The ground attacks were beaten back, and Ukrainian forces counterattacked destroying a column of diesel trucks.  Other communities under aerial or artillery fire include Hizhyn, Oster, and Desna.    Nizyyn, Oster and Desna are northeast of Kyiv.   The most direct route into Kyiv from these cities would be to cross the bridge running parallel to the hydroelectric dam that crosses the Dnieper River north of Kyiv.   On the other side of the bridge is the City of Vyzhgorod.    There is only one problem – in the first days of the war Ukraine blew that bridge.

East of Chernihiv in Sumy Oblast artillery and aerial attacks have continued without interruption on the city of Sumy and Akhtyrka.  Akhtyrka is close to a humanitarian tragedy, and it may be possible that some civilians will be evacuated from there today.  Yesterday approximately three thousand civilians were evacuated from Sumy.  1600 foreign students were among those evacuated.   Akhtyrka is a strategic city located between Sumy and Poltava.   Akhtyrka is on a possible invasion route from Russia toward Kremenchuk and Cherkassy, both located on the Dnieper River southeast of Kyiv.    If successful, this could cut off Ukrainian forces operating in Donbas from the rest of Ukraine.  However, if Sumy holds this route remains blocked.  In addition, to be successful Russia must hold the entire route with a relatively small number of troops.

Kharkiv and satellite communities of Chughuyev, and Izyum have been under constant attack.  Ukraine’s border army with the help of self-defense forces counterattacked and took control over part of Ukraine’s border with Russia near Izyum.  Russian capture of hese 2 cities could also serve to cut off Ukrainian forces operating in Donbas, as it lies not far from Krematorsk the Headquarters of Ukrainian forces arrayed along the line of contact with Russian occupied Donbas.

Russian invaders have continued shelling Ukrainian communities in the Donbas causing extensive damage to civilian infrastructure.  They have not been able to advance and face active counter attacks.  Currently occupational administration in the Donbas is sweeping men off the streets and sending them to fight against Ukraine.  The newly minted soldiers are surrendering in groups.  The humanitarian tragedy in Volnovakha continues and one convoy was able to evacuate from Mariupol.  Russia is not allowing humanitarian aid to reach Mariupol.

South of Kyiv - Russians have continued trying to advance on Zaporizhia Oblast to the city of Zaporizhia without success and remain mired about 70 kilometers to the south.

In Mykolaiv oblast Ukrainian forces have continued destroying Russian columns, keeping Russian forces away from the city of Mykolaiv, and capturing operational military equipment.  The key counterattack was Ukrainian aerial bombardment of Kherson airport to destroy 29 helicopters that had rebased there.

Ukrainian forces sank a third Russian naval vessel off the coast of Odesa.  After several delays, Russia has still not attempted an amphibious landing near Odesa.   As mentioned in previous sitreps, there are reports that Russian marines embarked on the 2 landing ships are resisting going ashore.   This article, a lengthy piece about Odesa that is worth reading, describes the beach and what will be waiting for the Russian marines if they do try to land.   As the article suggests, it would be the height of irony if Russia destroys the very same city that was established by Empress Catherine the Great and part of what Russians refer to as “Little Russia.”

To summarize, the Russian forces are doing a lot of damage, especially to civilian targets and ruining lives, but they are spread out, advances seem to be disorganized, they have not taken any of the cities that are critical sustain continued advances (not to mention Kyiv), and they appear to be dreadful navigators as evidenced by their tendency to advance into areas that end up being cul-de-sacs where they become open to attack by both the Ukrainian Army and territorial defense forces.   This is not to say that Russia may yet achieve breakthroughs, east of Kharkiv, south from Sumy, or South from the border of Belarus toward Zhytomyr, any of which could put Ukrainian forces in danger of being cut off.

Chernobyl – It has been reported that electricity to Chernobyl and the neighboring town of Slavutych has been cut off.   This endangers the storage tanks that contain liquid nuclear waste from the destroyed Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.   The tanks must be kept cool, to avoid the danger of the contents of the tanks exploding and causing a nuclear disaster.   According to experts I have spoken with, this situation is similar to the causes of the Kyshtym Nuclear Disaster in 1957, in the Ural Mountains, the worst nuclear disaster up until the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.

If the current situation at Chernobyl isn’t a potential NATO Article 5 violation, I don’t know what is.

CERN Hadron Collider – CERN has announced that the observer status of the Russian Federation has been suspended, and Russians may no longer conduct experiments at CERN.  Separately, individual Russian physicists and researchers have signed a letter condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Professor Timothy Snyder – Ways to Support Ukraine – Snyder is a Yale History professor who wrote a book called “Bloodlands,” that chronicled the mass murder that took place in what is now Poland, Belarus and Ukraine, between 1931, the beginning of the famine in Ukraine, through the end of WW-II.   Yesterday, Snyder posted a very useful list of ways individuals may support Ukraine, and Ukrainians.   

Letter to President Biden From Prominent Ukrainian Women – The letter was drafted by Hanna Hopko, former Chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the Parliament of Ukraine and a civil society and anti-corruption activist.   I have known Hanna for several years, as well as several other signers.  The photograph at the top, taken in the Spring of 2014 just after the end of the Revolution, shows Hanna Hopko touring Independence Square with then Vice President Biden.     

Updated Russian Casualty List  (below) – According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, over the last 13 days of fighting Russian casualties are coming close to matching  Soviet casualties in Afghanistan, incurred during 9 years and 9 months of fighting.  Losses of tanks and armored personnel carriers equal or exceed  Soviet losses during the Afghan War.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses.