Ukraine – 3/31 Sitrep
Compiled By: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
March 31, 2022
Report From Makariv –
Makariv is around 25 miles west of Kyiv. It is not far from where my friend’s house used to be. Yesterday, he reported that his house had been looted and partly destroyed.
The Tale of Zoya the Pysanka Master, or: When war came to Makariv
This is Zoya. She is my friend, and she is the most amazing pysankarka (master at inscribing/decorating eggs the traditional Ukrainian way with beeswax and dyes) I know.
And not because she is the best at her art, but because she is an incredible human being!
Her inner light does not blind people; her inner light keeps all the people around her warm.
Her blue like the Ukrainian sky eyes are always calm, but penetrate into your soul. Her quiet, soft voice brings you home. She looks soft, but she is made out of Ukrainian steel.
I met Zoya in 2016 when I joined the International Women in Kyiv club’s pysanka group. Zoya has students of all ages all over the world. When the previous group organizer Oksana moved abroad, I took over hosting. Zoya came to my residence weekly to teach people her art, exposing them to both beauty and part of the essence that is Ukrainian culture. And in the process, Zoya became my dear friend.
About two weeks before the wider war began in February, I was sitting in my car at my Arlington, Virginia allergy doctor’s office parking. I called Zoya and suggested that she and her family need to go West and spend some time there, because war was coming. I asked her what was her plan if Kyiv came under attack. She replied: "we will go to Makariv (a town located 50 km west from Kyiv towards Zhytomir), and stay with my daughter Sveta."
Sveta is an artist too, working not just with pysanky but with fabric and clothing design. Sveta designed and hand embroidered my and Elina Alem’s Crimean Tatar silk dresses and fezzes too. Living in Makariv, Sveta and her family enjoyed a menagerie - dogs, goats, and other animals.
After my warning, Zoya took her family, kids, grandkids and went to western Ukraine (Lviv), but came back to Kyiv February 22, 2 days before. When the Russian attacks began, they did go to Makariv and stayed there because it was quiet. Until it was not.
Zoya sent me the following series of message bursts on March 3rd:
“We are in the middle of the the action.
"Fighting does not stop.
"Convoys of military equipment are on the roads.
"Civilian cars are being shot at by tanks.
"GRADs (multiple launch rockets) and tanks are firing.
"The roads are being bombed, bridges blown up.
"We are 50 km from Kyiv.
"Sitting in the basement.
"So far we have gas, but no electricity.
"Sometimes we go upstairs to the house during the day while shooting stops.
"Everything is happening around us.
“They (Russians) are constantly moving around looking for an entrance to Kyiv.
"They (Russian army) get hit, they hit us (Ukrainians), and we are in the middle of it.
“It is unfolding all around us, on the road only 300m from us, on the beltway around Makariv.
"There is NO place we can go.”
Then nothing for a day or two, except a report that the Makariv bread factory had been hit by missiles, killing a number of workers.
I panicked. I was sick with worry.
While at the Medyka crossing point, I gave an interview to an Austrian TV station, interested in the work of volunteers. At first I was reserved, and my interview was quite dry. I should not be giving interviews; I should not be a public figure, and the Austrian journalist was not impressed, were my first conclusions.
Then about 30 minutes later, I was sobbing, listening to the Ukrainian folk anthem Chervona Ruta, thinking of Zoya, Sveta, and their families. Of Makariv, and how war found them regardless.
Suddenly the Austrians were back: "Would you like to add anything more?"
And yes, I did! I was crying, telling them about my friend, an artist, trapped in a village in Ukraine, and that I had not heard from her after the fierce battle near her daughter’s out of way house. I was almost yelling, telling them what I thought about Putin, that he wanted to be great in the pages of Russian history, but he would be known as Putin the great war criminal. The Austrian reporter started crying too.
I and others heard from Zoya only later, much later, after Makariv was liberated by counterattacking Ukrainian forces. Her daughter Sveta went further west, but Zoya went east, returning back to Kyiv.
One of her IWK friends asked Zoya to record a video on how to inscribe Pysanky. Even though Zoya had spent hours every day literally for decades doing so, she replied: “I cannot decorate Pysanky now, not now.” The trauma of surviving affects people differently, even when they emerge without physical wounds.
But Zoya is also incredibly busy volunteering, helping elderly babushky (grannies) in her neighborhood with their needs, contributing to the cause of helping her localized community and Ukraine writ large survive this moment, this existential challenge.
Her messages to me when I asked why she had returned to Kyiv with the course of the war still uncertain:
“We cannot leave; we are needed here.
"We believe in our Ukrainian military.
"We will win.”
And I believe her.
3/31 Sitrep (Comments of mine are in Bold Face)
AGRICULTURAL LOSSES –
Ukraine released government estimates of agricultural losses the country may suffer because of the invasion:
o 42% of grains and oilseeds
o 53% of buckwheat
o 68% of tomatoes
o 36% of potatoes
o 46% of onions
o 38% of carrots
o 45% of cucumbers
o 32% of cabbage
o 35% of table beets
o 35% of other fruits and vegetables.
Yesterday, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Agriculture announced that for this year Ukraine expects to lose approximately $1.5 billion in wheat export.
RUSSIA –
Yesterday, Russia accredited Taliban’s ambassador to the Russian Federation.
It appears that Northern Ossetia, which was part of Georgia prior to Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, and is now “independent,” will hold a referendum this May on joining Russia. The Russian parliament indicated it is waiting for the results of that referendum before taking further action.
Great Britain backtracked on its ambassador to the United Nations who promised to provide Ukrainian security guarantees as part of a possible peace settlement. The government withdrew a blanket guarantee and issued clarification that the shape and scope of the guarantee is to be determined.
Germany announced that it will provide Ukraine with future security guarantees. In the meantime, it is increasing arms support of Ukraine.
While security guarantees of this nature are welcome, history has taught Ukraine that Ukraine can only rely on one security guarantee – Ukraine’s Army and the Ukrainian People.
Ukraine intelligence reports that most conscripts of the 79th mechanized rifle brigade of the Baltic Fleet are refusing to sign service contracts to go and fight in Ukraine.
British Intelligence and the Pentagon stated yesterday that the number of occasions that Russian troops in Ukraine refusing to follow orders is increasing. Both of these services also stated that Putin is being deliberately misinformed by his own people regarding the current situation in Ukraine.
British Intelligence claims that Russian friendly fire destroyed one of its fighters yesterday.
The Pentagon said yesterday it is supplying Ukraine with arms and munitions daily. Yesterday the Ukrainian government sent a list of equipment and munitions it hoping to get from the United States Government. Apparently, the shipments have not yet included the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system that Slovakia had agreed to supply to Ukraine, provided that the U.S. supply Slovakia with an equivalent system, such as Patriot missile batteries. It is hard for me to see what is so difficult for the U.S. to pack up a Patriot system, put it on a plane, and send it to Slovakia, to that Ukraine can receive the S-300 as soon as possible.
The Head of France’s intelligence service has been relieved of duty for failing to foresee the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russia backed down yesterday from its demand that payment for Russian natural gas be in Roubles and said it will accept Euros.
An intercepted phone call between a Russian soldier and his wife consists of the wife pleading with her husband to loot and bring her new clothes and a notebook. There have been previous intercepted calls, including one where a Russian soldier told his wife had “obtained” two fur coats and the kitchen appliance that she had been wanting to get.
Nuclear armed Russian fighter bombers violated Sweden’s airspace yesterday.
NATIONAL
Zelensky dubbed the current war the Patriotic War. The internal nomenclature of Soviet military historiography identifies the Second World War as the Great Patriotic War. In this way they avoid accepting that Stalin and Hitler jointly started the Second World War by invading Poland. Zelensky’s move will strengthen Ukrainian legitimacy in the eyes of many because it steals Russia’s slogan that all of its actions are the legitimate consequences of the Great Patriotic War. The Russian state has been peddling this line for the last twenty years. Part of that narrative is that Stalin’s actions in the Holodomor, intellectual purges, and sending unarmed soldiers to the front against the Wehrmacht were legitimate.
Factories belonging to Rinat Akhmentov and Volodymyr Novinsky, to Ukrainian oligarchs whose pro-Russian positions prior to the war were obvious, have begun producing body armor and anti-tank barriers for Ukraine.
Russia is firing long range cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea. Russia also sent cruise missiles from the Caspian against civilian targets in Syria.
Ukraine’s air command confirmed that Russia altered its air attack tactics. Its current tactic is to focus its aerial attacks on Eastern Ukraine, to avoid Ukrainian air defenses and interceptors. Air command indicated that it shot down four Russian fighter bombers, one tactical drone and two cruise missiles.
Ukraine is preparing plans to mobilize up to an additional million people from Ukrainian reserve forces.
The Pentagon briefing yesterday informed that Russia is starting to withdraw its forces from the Chernobyl Sarcophagus.
Ukraine’s government plans further budget cuts to strengthen military spending.
Belarus medical authorities informed yesterday that they received seven busloads of Russian soldiers evacuated from the Chernobyl Sarcophagus suffering from exposure to radiation. The Belarusians said that they are constantly receiving this type of Russian military patient from the start of the invasion.
The head of annexed Crimea proposed confiscating property belonging to Ukrainians in Crimea. Here is more information about the Head of annexed Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov. Given Aksyonov’s background, it wouldn’t be surprising is that he’ll transfer the confiscated property into his own name, or the names of his family members and other relatives.
Elected municipal representatives and officials are being targeted by the Invaders trying to force them to accept Russian rule or to be liquidated.
A third of Ukrainian companies have lost a million or more in revenue since the start of the invasion.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts a 20% drop in Ukrainian GDP this year.
Ukraine’s government will cancel licenses of media and internet providers that fail to block Russian propaganda channels and sites.
REGIONAL
Military authorities said that the Obolon and Vynohradiv districts of Kyiv are littered with unexploded ordinance and advised citizens to be careful and not approach it. Evacuation of animals from the Ecological Park outside of Kyiv began yesterday. Vynohradiv is the district where my wife owns an apartment, and where we live when we’re in Kyiv. My wife’s place is an approximate 10-minute walk from the shopping center that was recently destroyed by a Russian missile. It is likely that a significant amount of the unexploded ordinance can be found in the forest located on the edge of Vynohradiv. In the summer, it is a popular place to have picnics, and in the winter I go cross country skiing there, and I rode my bicycle there in the summer.
Onolon is just north of Kyiv. Russian armor appeared in Obolon on the 2nd day of the war. Why it took only 2 days for Russian armor to advance to both Obolon and Makariv from their stating areas in Belarus is a question that needs to be investigated after the war is over.
Nizhin in Chernihiv oblast was shelled yesterday killing 1, wounding 11, destroying 3 homes, damaging another 8 and destroying numerous vehicles.
Shelling of Chernihiv continues, and the city remains cut off by encircling Russian forces.
As the Russians are retreating, they are leaving behind in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblast anti-personnel mines banned by UN Conventions.
The mayor of Kharkiv estimates that 15% of housing has been completely destroyed and cannot be renovated. In addition, to the destruction of 1,292 residential buildings, 76 schools, 16 hospitals and 239 administrative buildings have been destroyed.
Yesterday Russian forces continued sporadic shelling of Kharkiv.
Civil and military authorities in newly liberated Trostianets, Sumy Oblast, say that the Russians mined the local cemetery with personnel mines. Personnel and vehicle mines are scattered throughout the rest of the city.
Russian shelling in Luhansk Oblast has set a school on fire in Severodonetsk and a crude oil storage in Lysychansk. Shelling led to destruction of 9 homes in Lysychansk, 5 homes in Severodonetsk, and 1 in Rubizhno.
Russia’s military command has relieved two commanders of the 60th mechanized rifle brigade, of Russia’s Eastern Military District or their duties for failure to reach objectives. In their place Russia’s military command is sending a deputy brigade commander of the political division to educate troops.
A bus evacuating civilians from Lisichansk yesterday was strafed by machine gun fire yesterday.
There were five unsuccessful attacks along the Donbas front. The Russians lost 10 tanks, 18 armored units, 13 transports and 15 pieces of artillery. A number of attacking invaders were liquidated.
The National Guard in Mariupol reported that yesterday they destroyed 3 tanks, and 64 invaders. Amongst those liquidated was a platoon of Russian special forces. Russia promised that it would allow civilian evacuation from Mariupol today.
Russian aviation dropped three phosphorus bombs on Mariinka, Dontesk Oblast, yesterday.
The 12th administration of the Russian Military Central command and the informational/political division of the Russian Federal Security Bureau are actively seeking quislings throughout currently occupied areas of Kherson Oblast to form a Kherson People’s Republic. The City of Kherson is still being contested by Ukraine, as is Kherson Oblast.
Russians released a Ukrainian Orthodox Church priest in Kherson last night after 14 hours of interrogation.
Total killed in the attack on Mykolaiv’s administration building has increased to 15. Civic authorities do not expect to find more bodies and started using heavy equipment excavators.
Odesa’s civilian/military administration said that yesterday a Black Sea Russian frigate, the Admiral Makarov, was rearmed with a new batch of cruise missiles.
Russian forces kidnapped seven local councilors in the community of Hola Pristan, Kherson Oblast, yesterday. Today civilians are demonstrating demanding their release.
Russian rockets hit a factory and a fuel base yesterday in Novomoskovsk, Dnipro Oblast. No injuries or casualties were reported, and the base wasn’t set on fire.
Ukrainians largest metallurgical factory, ArcelorMittal Kryvii Rih intends to restart operations today.
The Hassidic community of Uman, Cherkasy Oblast, denied Russian allegations that Ukrainian nationalists are using Jewish holy sites for military purposes. Uman in Cherkasy Oblast is the site of an annual pilgrimage of Hassidic Jews to celebrate the Jewish New year, in the place where Rebbi Nachman of Breslov is buried. The number of pilgrims exceeds 20,000 in most years.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
**Reporting of destroyed Drones only includes attack drones and not surveillance drones
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis
Alas, the war drags on. Thanks for the story about Zoya. I've always enjoyed the art.