Bob Homans March 3
20230303
Ukraine – 3/3/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
March 3, 2023
News From the Battlefield
The situation in Bakhmut, while still dire for Ukraine, may be moving more in Ukraine’s favor. “Reporting From Ukraine” covers fighting along the northern flank of Bakhmut, where Russia has made most of its recent gains. Here are some takeaways:
· Ukraine is almost certainly brining up reinforcements, and they seem to be deploying them to the northern flank.
· Ukrainian reinforcements apparently include additional longer-range artillery.
· Ukrainians are making more use of heavy mortars around Bakhmut, that were almost absent during the battle for Soledar.
· The weather is getting warmer. Tomorrow’s temperature in Kharkiv is forecast to be 41F (+/- 5C). “Reporting From Ukraine” describes how this is a disadvantage for Russia, because they rely on the fields for advancing, whereas Ukraine is deployed on higher ground that is less muddy.
· Ukraine has apparently stopped Russian advances on the southern flank that had threatened the village of Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian troops have largely been re-deployed out of the center of Bakhmut, likely to the flanks. In a previous post, “Reporting From Ukraine” estimated that Ukraine only had around 3,000 troops left in the center.
“Reporting From Ukraine” describes the significance of “tree belts” in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut. Tree belts, or a row of trees planted relatively close together, not only serve to mark property lines around agricultural fields, but they also serve as wind breaks to keep soil from blowing away.
Ukraine is a place where the wind always blows, thus the tree belts. I recall one cold winter day, when I and 2 colleagues were walking to a restaurant near our office in Kyiv. The wind was blowing in our faces. When we were returning to our office, the wind was blowing in our faces. One of my colleagues remarked, “in Ukraine, it is column in the winter for the wind blowing from every direction at once.”
Tree belts are found all over Ukraine. Along with Ukraine’s abundance of rivers, tree belts are playing a very significant role in this war.
During the winter months, troops use paths or roads parallel to the tree belts, as line of attack. This is especially true during late winter/early spring when fields become muddy bogs. During the summer months, tree belts serve as cover for infantry and armor.
Last year, during the Battle for Kyiv, Russians used roads along tree belts as lines of attack, but it forced Russian armor to move in a column. Ukrainians, with their local knowledge, knew this. Ukrainians mined the fields, and they deployed their forces in such a way so as to cut Russian armor to pieces. Ukraine did the same thing this year, around Vulhudar, where they scored a major victory against Russia, costing Russia over 130 vehicles and many of their most elite troops.
Bryansk
“The Latest Denys” talks about the incursion by a Russian opposition group into a village in Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation. Denys seems to get a bit enthusiastic in his account. That being said, the Russian group obtains support from Ukraine, but it’s unclear the extent to which Ukraine controls its operations. Russia alleged that a boy riding in a school bus was wounded by the group. However, the boy’s mother said her son was unhurt. Meanwhile, the Russians returned safely back to Ukraine.
Russia seems to have very porous borders, both on land and in the air. Drones have been able to travel hundreds of miles through Russian airspace, to conduct attacks. One got within 60 miles (100 km.) of Moscow. For the last 8 years Ukraine has been able to move 5th columnists into Russian territory, as far north as Karelia along the Finnish border, and east to regions like Buryatia near the border with Mongolia.
3/2/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon March 1to 12:00 noon March 2, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
March 3
08:07 Reuters: The cost of a new U.S. military assistance package for Ukraine will be $400 million.
· According to preliminary information, it will include GMLRS high-range missiles, ammunition for Bradley combat vehicles, other types of ammunition, tank bridgelayers and more.
08:06 Pentagon spokesman: The U.S. Department of Defense assesses the fighting around Bakhmut as "intense" and considers the situation in the area "volatile."
00:54: A doggie who has been under the rubble for more than 20 days after the earthquake was rescued in Turkey. Video from local media.
00:10: The United States does not hand over intelligence to Ukrainian authorities to launch strikes on Russian territory.
March 2
23:34 espreso: World Media about March 2 Ukraine.
· The New York Times: The U.S. Secretary of State and Russian Foreign Minister spoke briefly during the G20 summit in India.
· The Washington Post: WP tells the story of the small village of Luch, where only 50 inhabitants remain.
· The Guardian: Bakhmut is on fire, the Guardian says, fires are everywhere, Russians are approaching to seize the city.
23:25: The United States will provide a new military assistance package to Ukraine.
· This was announced during a briefing by the coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby.
· "The United States will allocate a new package of military assistance to Ukraine. It will mainly include the ammunition that Ukrainians will need for systems they already have, such as HIMARS," Kirby said.
22:20: Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with President of Brazil Luis Inácio Lula da Silva.
· The President of Ukraine thanked for the support of the Ukrainian resolution in the UN. Politicians stressed the importance of adhering to the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity of states. They discussed diplomatic efforts to return peace to Ukraine and the whole world.
21:25: There are protests in Georgia against the adoption of a law on the creation of a "register of agents of foreign influence", similar to the Russian one.
· The document stipulates that non-profit organizations and the media, more than 20% of the annual income of which is foreign financing, will become "foreign agents".
· Refusal to register in the register of "foreign agents", according to the draft law, entails a fine of up to 25,000 lari (8800 euros).
21:03: Poland will open production of South Korean K2 tanks.
· This was reported by the PAP with reference to the statement of the Minister of National Defense of Poland Mariusz Blaszczak.
· "Here, at a military automobile plant in Poznan, K2 tanks will be serviced, overhauled and will be produced," Blaschak said.
19:59: Ukraine will file a complaint against Iran with the International Criminal Court.
· This was stated by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in an interview with Al Arabiya.
· "We are concerned about Iran's assisting Russia in committing war crimes and will seek recognition of Iran's involvement in them," Shmyhal said.
19:41 Associated Press: Argentine Foreign Minister Santiago Cafiero has called on Russia to end the war against Ukraine.
· "Latin America is a zone of peace, the most populous zone of peace. And we do not have military developments and military infrastructure to participate in the war that we demand to end and not continue," Cafiero said.
19:21: Volodymyr Zelenskyy had his first conversation with the new President of Switzerland Alain Berse.
· "I thanked for the support package for 114 million Swiss francs.
· We discussed joint projects in which both countries are interested, and also devoted time to practical issues on the implementation of the formula for peace," the President wrote.
16:54 Bloomberg: G20 ministers have not agreed on their position on the war in Ukraine: the final document has been published.
· This was announced by Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniyam Jaishankar.
· He stated that instead of an official joint statement, the participants decided to publish a communiqué. He also noted that during the summit, Russia and China opposed the word "war" to describe what is happening in Ukraine.
16:33: Ukraine will receive another batch of Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled artillery installations and the Iris-T system in the coming weeks, — said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a speech in the Bundestag.
· In addition, he stressed that Germany would continue to consistently provide military assistance to Ukraine.
16:19 espreso Operational Command South: Signs of a hybrid war are flourishing in Moldova, while Ukraine is ready for a threat from Transnistria.
· A spokeswoman for the press center of the Defense Forces of the South says that the enemy is now experiencing a very strong imbalance of moral and psychological state.
· "Unless there are several special forces that are ready to carry out sabotage and reconnaissance breakthroughs, provocations, or some provocative shelling by the unrecognized Transnistria. This is from more or less real threats that we are also prepared for, realizing exactly where and how they can apply these types of provocations," the spokeswoman added.
15:38: France is considering handing over its Mirage fighter jets to Ukraine, Defense Ministry Chief Sebastian Lecornue said, according to VMFTV.
· According to him, the training of Ukrainian pilots can be carried out in Poland. Currently, the fate of the 12 Mirage fighters that were written off and deposited in the summer of 2022 is still being discussed.
12:45 ESPRESO: German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock addressed Lavrov at the G20 summit: "Stop bombing Ukrainian cities."
· "It's good that you're here in the hall and listening. Stop this war. Stop violating our international order. Stop bombing Ukrainian cities and civilians. Stop the war. Not in a month or a year, but today. Because every family that loses a father, brother, mother, child loses the whole world," Berbock said, looking at Lavrov.
· It is worth noting that last year in Bali, Lavrov, in response to criticism, left the hall where the G20 summit took place. This time he was left sitting still, writes the publication Zeit.
12:15 espreso: 🇩🇪 Olaf Scholz promised that Ukraine will receive another batch of Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled artillery and Iris-T systems in the coming weeks
· Germany is also working to provide Ukraine with additional ammunition, the German Chancellor stressed.
NATIONAL
March 3
11:26: Ukraine returns the bodies of 17 more fallen defenders of Ukraine - Ministry of Reintegration
· In total, since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion from the temporarily occupied territories, the bodies of 1426 defenders of Ukraine have been returned to their relatives for a worthy burial.
10:08 Bild: The head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov has no doubt that the West will still hand over fighter jets to Kyiv.
· "I think that again there will be a kind of coalition (for fighters), we will get some kind of main aircraft and other types," Reznikov said in an interview with Bild.
07:07 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· "In the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions of the past day, our soldiers repulsed more than 85 enemy attacks.
· The occupiers launched 31 air and 3 missile strikes, in particular, on civilian infrastructure in Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. There are wounded among the civilian population, damaged residential high-rise buildings and private houses. In addition, 88 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems were recorded."
· Russians continue to rob the population in the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporozhye region. In particular, since the beginning of February 2023, Russian mercenaries began to actively take cars from residents who did not receive Russian passports
· Representatives of the so-called occupation authorities put pressure on the local population in order to appropriate land plots,
· Most of the residents of the settlement of Combat, Kherson region, refused to transfer their private plots to the balance of the local occupation administration. As of March 1 this year, about 200 people from this village have been taken in an unknown direction for so-called filtration measures, and Russian mercenaries are being stationed in their homes.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces over the past day inflicted 13 strikes on areas of concentration of Russian personnel and military equipment
· Also, Ukrainian defenders shot down a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft, a Mi-24 helicopter and 7 UAVs (1 - of the "Superkam" type, 2 - "Orlan" and 4 - "Lancet").
· Units of rocket troops and artillery hit 6 areas of concentration of Russian troops and the composition of their ammunition.
March 2
23:38: As of March 3, Ukrenergo did not impose restrictions on electricity consumption.
· This allows you not to turn off the lights in Kiev, Kiev, Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk regions. However, due to damage to Ukrenergo's networks, scheduled outages are possible in some energy centers if electricity consumption increases.
20:40: Legal gambling operators have supported the government's desire to increase budget revenues from the gambling business.
· Operator companies have sent specific proposals to the government that will allow the budget to increase revenues from the gambling business in the future, despite the war and the fall of the economy.
· "We are convinced that the implementation of these proposals will help the state to preserve the sphere of legal gambling, and for us to fill the state budget," the representatives of the gambling business said in a statement.
18:20 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on March 2:
· "During the day, the enemy inflicted 24 air strikes on the positions of our troops and 3 missile strikes on the cities of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region and Zaporizhia.
· As a result of the terrorist act, residential buildings were damaged and there are civilian casualties."
· "In many schools in the Kherson region, the occupiers introduced compulsory so-called "cadet classes", starting from the first grade.
· Students are required to wear uniforms and attend classes on "patriotic" education.
· Due to the shortage of teachers, pro-Russian locals are hired without pedagogical education."
· "The enemy has intensified filtration measures in the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
· In particular, representatives of the FSB arrived in the settlements of Peschanovka and Poyma, Kherson region. Mass searches of residential premises, checking of telephones are carried out.
· The occupiers pay the main attention to people whose relatives left for the unoccupied part of Ukraine."
· "Our aviation in a day inflicted 13 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.
· Units of rocket troops and artillery hit 1 enemy ammunition depot."
17:41: The HACC found the mayor of Poltava Oleksandr Mamay guilty of organizing the embezzlement of more than 500,000 hryvnias, according to the criminal case of the HACC on the USR website of court decisions.
· He was given 5 years in prison with a ban on holding positions for a year.
· However, he was released from his sentence with an examination term of one year because he pleaded guilty and compensated for the damages caused.
16:15: 68% of Kyiv residents are satisfied with the work of the Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko
· Almost 70% are satisfied with the work of utilities, and more than 80% of Kyiv residents are satisfied with public transport. Among the IDPs who currently live in Kyiv, 65% answered that they were satisfied with the activities of the mayor of Kyiv. 83% of IDPs are satisfied with the work of utilities, and 86% are satisfied with the work of urban transport.
· This is the highest score in the last 5 years. - says in the study of the sociological group "Rating".
15:22 Operational Command South: Russians are ready for a missile attack, the number of rocket carriers in the Black Sea has increased.
· So far, Russia has withdrawn 13 ships of the Black Sea Fleet, including two surface and two submarine missile carriers. The total volley of "Calibers" can be 24 high-precision missiles.
13:51 Spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service: The situation on the border with Russia is not easy, but completely under control.
· According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are monitoring the situation to prevent invasion and prevent any provocative actions.
· commented on what happened in the Bryansk region:
· "The fact that Russian publics are now being dispersed about a certain Ukrainian DRG on the territory of the Russian Federation, I can note that Ukraine is not the aggressor, our main task is defense and protection from the occupying country. I don't know anything about what could have happened on the territory of the Russian Federation, because a terrorist country is actually an unstable education that can deliberately try to blame Ukraine for everything."
13:21 Ministry of Education: Applicants from the temporarily occupied territories will be able to pass all stages of the admission campaign remotely.
· Due to the safety measures of the NMT, 1 day will be held. Temporary examination centers will operate in the territory controlled by Ukraine.
· Also, NMT delivery centers are organized in Ukrainian educational centers of European countries.
Mordor - russia
March 3
09:36 Institute for the study of war: The incident in the Bryansk region caused strong discontent among Russian warlords and ultranationalist forces.
· "In general, such a reaction indicates that the ultranationalist community is very dissatisfied with the Kremlin's inability to fully assume its own false rhetoric about the 'existential war' in Ukraine promoted by Russia," the ISW report said.
March 2
22:34: Eyewitnesses share details of the explosion on the outskirts of Kolomna. According to them, first a whistle was heard, and then an explosion sounded.
21:57 Social Networks: It is reported that an explosion occurred in the suburbs of Kolomna, Moscow region.
· Local authorities said law enforcement officers and rescuers had left for the scene.
20:56 espreso:
· Russian oligarch Deripaska about the Russian economy: there is no money, there will be no investment, it is necessary to reduce the state apparatus and security forces.
· "The rule of law and predictability is very important. If we change the rules of the game every year or quarter, no one will believe: neither Russian entrepreneurs nor foreign ones. It is necessary to stop these bondage, from the Stone Age, the "landing" of all in a row is not known for what. A person has committed an economic offense, compensated him – let him continue to work," Deripaska said.
18:47 espreso: Russia's defeat in Ukraine launches a new program: Putin gave the FSB a go-ahead for harsh terror
· The Kremlin dictator is ready for anything to save the shaky regime. Against the background of the failures of the "second army of the world" in Ukraine and the increase in strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation, Putin launched a new program - terror.
· Russian departments cheerfully took under the visor, and the leading role of the "witch hunt" of course is assigned to the FSB. What is happening in Russia today – read in the material OBOZREVATEL.
15:00 espreso: Pro-Ukrainian activists of "Yellow Ribbon" published photos from the temporarily occupied Crimea: Wagner's PMC advertisements in Simferopol were painted over and more than 130 graffiti were painted in recent days.
14:48: The Russian Volunteer Corps says it has come to the Bryansk region to show compatriots that there is hope that free Russian people with weapons in their hands can fight the regime.
14:15 espreso: In Russia, during tests at the Ulyanovsk aircraft exploded a military transport aircraft IL-76MD.
· It is reported that with the help of a powerful jet of compressed air, the fuselage of the IL-76MD was tested for power. The check board failed. As a result, depressurization occurred, and then the complete destruction of the aircraft.
· One person was killed and six others injured.
14:11 representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine: Russia is arranging tensions around Moldova and unrecognized Transnistria, pursuing two goals — to divert the world's attention from the war in Ukraine and to demonstrate some kind of "victory" for the Russian people.
· The representative of the military intelligence of Ukraine reminded that according to such a scenario, Russians had once staged provocations in Donetsk and Luhansk.
12:20 Operational Command North: about the provocations of Russians against the background of "events" in the Bryansk region.
· "We remind you! The enemy can resort to provocations and try to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Consume information responsibly!" - the message says.
KHARKIV
March 3
10:53: According to the SBU, a Russian pilot who bombed the Kharkiv TV tower will spend 12 years behind bars
· On March 6 last year, the Russians used eight FAB-500 bombs with a total weight of 2.5 tons in TNT equivalent. The pilot himself was shot down by Ukrainian defenders immediately after he dropped bombs. After ejection and landing, he was detained
09:20 Kharkiv RMA: As a result of a missile strike on Kupyansk, previously from the S-300 air defense system, an administrative building and a health care facility were destroyed/
· Also in Kupyansk, Russian shelling damaged an agricultural enterprise and a granary.
· In the village of Podol, Russian troops shelled private households. Unfortunately, a 73-year-old woman died.
March 2
15:03 Kharkiv RMA: On the territory of the Izyum forestry near the village of Spivakivka, 4 men blew up on an anti-tank mine. All four died on the spot.
· "Forests and forest belts in the de-occupied territories are very dangerous due to mines left by the Russian occupiers," Sinegubov said.
13:06 Institute for the Study of War: Russians are not going to attack from the Kharkiv region.
· Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War note that Russia mines the border northwest of Kharkov, and the formation of offensive groups is not recorded.
· Such fortifications of the Russian troops suggest that preparations for the resumption of the offensive in this area are not underway.
LUHANSK
March 2
13:37 Luhansk RMA: The Russians collected a large number of heavy equipment in the Luhansk region, but could not fully use it in the winter – now the weather is already in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· He also said that the "cotton" that occurred in Kadiivka should create an artillery famine for the Russians, because trucks with ammunition exploded there, and the hottest situation is now in Kreminna.
DONETSK
March 3
11:06 Advisor to the Mayor of Temporarily Occupied Mariupol: "Three loud explosions in Mariupol. The main epicenter is the Left Bank. However, it is also loud in the Kalmiusyokom district on pr. Nikopolsky".
07:52 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kramatorsk district of the Donetsk region,
00:30: About 5 thousand people still remain in Bakhmut, including 37 children.
· This was announced by the head of Donetsk OV Pavlo Kyrylenko on the air of the telethon.
· According to him, the evacuation of civilians from the city continues.
March 2
12:51 Donetsk RMA: In the Donetsk region, Russians continue to actively shell the residential infrastructure of the region.
· As a result of shelling by Russian troops in Bakhmut, 1 person was wounded.
ZAPORIZHIA
March 3
11:56: The girl posted a photo from under the rubble, where she stayed for more than 5 hours after the Russian strike on a residential building in Zaporozhye.
March 2
12:01 espreso - Mayor of Melitopol: enemy trains move around the clock on the shores of the Milk Estuary
· The invaders continue to transfer military equipment to the temporarily occupied territory of Melitopol. Yesterday, 50 armored and cargo enemy cars passed through Melitopol towards Zaporizhia to the front line.
DNIPRO
March 3
08:55 Dnipro RMA: This night the Russians were targeting the Nikopol district for two times. The Marganese community was shot dead with heavy artillery.
· There are no dead or injured due to the enemy attack.
KHERSON
March 3
11:55 Kherson RMA: Russians attacked Kherson region. There are civilians killed and wounded
· Near the village of Tomyne, Berislav district, Russians fired on a tractor driver. A 33-year-old man was killed.
· Also, the Russians again attacked the village of Kozatskoye, Kakhovka district. Two people were injured, now doctors provide them with the necessary assistance.
11:10 Kherson RMA: Today in Kherson, an employee of one of the local enterprises was wounded as a result of Russian shelling. The 48-year-old woman was in the workplace when the shelling began. She was hospitalized.
09:53 Kherson RMA: Russians shelled Kherson region 65 times.
· the Russians hit the residential areas of Kherson four times. 1 person died, 17 people were injured of varying severity. Among those injured is a 16-year-old teenager who suffered gunshot wounds to his right hip due to an enemy drone attack.
08:40 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
08:00: About 20 torture chambers were found in Kherson, where Russian invaders held residents of the temporarily occupied city. The system of these prisons was financed from the Russian Federation at the state level, - British lawyer Wayne Jordash. An article about the British investigation from the Manchester Guardian, dated March 1st, is here.
00:39 Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson region
March 2
22:57 Social Networks: Sounds of explosions in Chornobaivka, Kherson region.
22:49 Social Networks: Explosions heard again in Kherson
22:07 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
18:00: Roman Mrochko was appointed head of the Kherson city military administration.
· The relevant order is published on the website of the President of Ukraine.
· Prior to that, the head of the Kherson MBA was Galina Lugova.
17:21 Prosecutor's office: In the Kherson region, the Russian army struck civilians queuing for humanitarian aid with drones.
· "As a result of the shelling, 9 civilians were injured, including a minor child.
· They are provided with qualified medical care. The final number of victims is being clarified," the statement said.
16:42 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
13:53 President's Office: The Russian army artillery shelled Belozerka in the Kherson region. Two people were injured.
12:36 State Emergency Service: In the Kherson region, a tractor blew up on a mine.
· In the Beryslav district outside the village of Arkhangelskoye, in a field, two men on a tractor ran into an explosive device. As a result of the explosion, the tractor caught fire, and the men received injuries of varying severity. The victims were hospitalized.
KYIV
March 2
15:56: In Borodyanka in the Kyiv region, a new burial of civilians killed by Russians was found, said Andriy Nebitov, the head of the Kyiv region police.
· According to preliminary information, three Ukrainians were shot in the head by Russians.
SUMY
March 2
16:46 SBU press service: SBU detained a Russian spy in Sumy region who was scouting the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the border with Russia.
· According to the SBU counterintelligence, the perpetrator is a Russian citizen who moved to Ukraine in 2019 and settled in the Sumy region.
· After February 24 last year, at the behest of the Russian special service, he began to collect information about the locations of the Defense Forces in the region.
RIVNO
March 2
12:07: The SBU detained a Russian saboteur who was trying to blow up one of Rivno's transport infrastructure facilities.
· Its main task was to carry out sabotage at one of the key objects of the transport system of the regional center.
· Thus, the Russians hoped to disrupt the supply of foreign weapons to the Defense Forces on the eastern and southern fronts.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka