Bob Homans March 29

20220329

My note: As Bob writes today, the International Red Cross has gotten the message about its operations here. Time to mention again that the desirability of sanctions for head of the Russian Orthodox Church, billionaire and war sponsor Patriarch Kirill

Ukraine – 3/29 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
March 29, 2022

The Russian Draft –

Draft enlistments for Russian servicemen usually expire on March 31st, to be replaced by new draftees starting on April 1st.   Today, in its daily update on the war, the Institute of the Study of War (ISW) reported the following –

“Russian conscription efforts, which Ukrainian intelligence expects to begin on April 1, are unlikely to provide Russian forces around Ukraine with sufficient combat power to restart major offensive operations in the near term. Russia’s pool of available well-trained replacements remains low and new conscripts will require months to reach even a minimum standard of readiness. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on March 28 that Russia will begin conscription through the BARS-2021 (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) program on April 1 alongside the normal semi-annual conscription cycle on April 1 to “conceal mass mobilization measures.”  The GUR reported that BARS-2021 reservists will replenish units operating in Ukraine and will be supported by convicted criminals recruited through the BARS program in return for full amnesty.”

Russia’s recent history appears that they initiate military operations during the window between August 1st and March 1st.   It assumes that draftees entering the Army on April 1st need 16 weeks of training, prior to being ready to deploy.    The recent chronology of Russian incursions and invasions seem to bear this out:

·       Georgia – August 2008

·       Crimea – February 2014

·       Ukraine/Ilovaisk – August - September 2014

·       Debaltseve – February 2015

·       “Special Military Operation – February 24, 2022

The delay in the “Special Military Operation” requested by President Xi of China, in order not to have the start take place during the Winter Olympics, may have been a critical factor working in Ukraine’s favor.   Putin’s agreement to the delay moved the invasion date back by approximately 2 weeks, not just into “mud season” but also narrowing the window between the invasion date and the March 31st end of conscription.

This also suggests that Ukraine may have 16 weeks, between now and August 1st, to prepare and re-arm, to counter another Russian military action.

Uniforms –

According to Ukraine, approximately 500,000 Ukrainians, mostly men, have returned to Ukraine.   Almost all of them are returning to fight.   This likely gives Ukraine a numerical advantage, but it places additional burden on Ukraine to find uniforms, 1st aid kits, body armor, helmets, weapons, etc.   The basic items that keep soldiers in the field are becoming almost important as bigger anti-aircraft weapons, or so it seems.

Crowdfunding –

Starting with Euromaidan, Ukraine has developed a system of civilian support for the Armed Forces, including logistics and crowd funding from sources inside and outside Ukraine.   This article, from the Wall Street Journal, is an excellent description of his this system works.   This continues to be a critical factor in Ukraine’s recent success on the battlefield.

What this article describes is the result of 8 years of strong civilian support for Ukraine’s Armed Forces.   During Euromaidan, groups like the Lv’iv Entrepreneurs Group were formed to provide logistical and financial support for the protests.  Similar groups, mostly made up of independent businesspeople but also local churches and educational institutions, were organized in other cities. 

Throughout Euromaidan, members of the Lv’iv Entrepreneurs Group met at a table at the Café Vienna in Lv’iv, where they coordinated deliveries of supplies to the protestors in Kyiv, along with bringing in protestors from member companies.   The group members coordinated, so that no single company would suffer a substantial loss of staff because of their presence in Kyiv.   In June 2016 I had the pleasure of meeting some of the members of the Lv’iv Entrepreneurs, at the same table at the Café Vienna in Lv’iv.   I’m sitting on the right of the photo.

3/29 Sitrep – (my comments are in Bold Face)

Readers of this bulletin from Great Britain informed me that there is a petition on “Change It” requesting that the International Committee of the Red Cross change its policy regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  The link to the petition and the Red Cross’s reaction to it - https://chng.it/Df6D9GnYKy  Please take a moment to read and sign it.  Also, if you have time spread the information and contact your elected representatives to act on this issue.

National –

·       The European Union adopted a ten-point policy document regarding the treatment and assistance to Ukrainian refugees in the EU. According to the European Commission 3.8 million Ukrainian refugees have entered the EU and more than half of them are children less than 16 years of age.

·       Poland’s 10 Point Plan for Ukraine – Poland’s 10 Point Plan for Ukraine was issued by Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland.   This was issued after Morawiecki, along with his Czech and Slovenian counterparts, had the courage to visit Kyiv during a period of regular Russian shelling of the city.  Since that time Slovenia has announced that it is re-opening its embassy in Kyiv.

·       Russia currently concentrates rocket and cruise missile attacks on fuel storage and food warehouses.

·       Air Defense - Ukraine’s air defense command reported that in the last twenty-four hours they shot down 8 fighter bombers, 3 helicopters, 4 tactical attack drones, and intercepted two missiles.  The command reported that there were 4 sorties by Ukrainian fighter bombers on Russian forces.  To our knowledge this is the first report by official Ukrainian sources of Ukrainian aircraft attacking Russian ground forces. 

In the first two weeks Ukraine reported dogfights.  Since that time Russian aircraft have mostly fired on Ukrainian targets from Russian airspace.  British Intelligence said that Russian pilots fear flying into Ukrainian airspace because so many of them end up being shot down.  Russian pilots are bombing from low altitudes because they are using dumb unguided bombs, exposing them to ground fire and the low altitude Stingers.  The Pentagon said that Ukrainian stinger downing of contemporary attack craft was a first.  To this point stingers have downed helicopters and low altitude fixed wing craft.

·       Ground Attacks - Although this is the first official report of Ukraine’s air defense engaging Russian ground forces short videos posted to the internet from the beginning of the Invasion by civilians and the military of both sides show Ukraine’s air force attacking Russian ground forces.  Official Ukrainian reports do not refer to tactical Ukrainian drone attacks on ground targets as air force attacks.

Russian ground forces squandered both and are now a target.  Before today we reported on the destruction of 54 mobile Russian anti-aircraft missile batteries and 15 specialized electronic jamming vehicles.  Without this equipment it is safer for Ukrainian fighters to attack.  Ukrainian fighter attacks are coordinated with tank and troop attacks.  This suggests that Ukrainian counterattacks will be even more destructive than to date.

·       Tactical Communications - Ukraine has managed its military communications well to date.  Given that it now reports targeting ground forces, that Russian fighters are mostly absent from Ukrainian air space this suggests Ukraine has gained more control of its airspace.  Further it suggests that Russian ground forces lack effective weapons or ability to protect against aerial attacks. 

·       Use of Resources - A major reason why Ukraine is winning so many victories and this war is that Ukraine uses its resources prudentially.   Also, and has been reported earlier, Ukraine has been able to repair captured Russian armor and return it service.

·       EU Advisory - Seven EU states issued advisories yesterday to their citizens that it is not a good idea to go to Ukraine and volunteer to fight.  The advisory notes that EU citizens can be more helpful by providing financial support or by helping refugees.  We agree.  With international volunteers, there have been problems with lack of combat experience, language limitations, and lack of available kit.   In addition, Ukraine is continually benefiting from Ukrainians who are returning to Ukraine to fight.

·       Japan - The Japanese government has banned the export of Luxury cars and parts to Russia.  We expect that in the nearest future Russians will start dumping their Lexus and Infinity vehicles, just as they are dumping Crimean real estate, due to lack of parts.

·       Possible 2nd Source of MiGs - Six former defense Bulgarian defense ministers published an open letter to the Bulgarian government calling on it to supply Ukraine with weapons.  Bulgaria has the largest active fleet of Russian Sukhoi and Mig Fighters in Europe.

·       Mines in the Black Sea - Following the discovery of a Russian naval mine two days ago in the Bosporus, Romania reported a mine off its Black Sea coast.  Turkey and Romania are NATO countries.

·       Battle of the Churches - The Ukrainian Orthodox Church reports that it has already registered 50 parishes who broke their ecumenical link to the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate in Ukraine.  Currently they are working on registering another Russian 100 parishes and expect more in the future. 

·       Ukraine’s Arms Industry - Ukraine’s military industrial complex reports it is at 100% capacity utilization.   Ukraine has one of the largest arms industries in the world.  Before the war, Ukraine was a major arms exporter.   A significant portion of Ukraine’s arms industry, especially tank manufacturing, is based in Kharkiv.  Given the extent to which Kharkiv has been targeted, it is extraordinary that they have maintained their level of production.  It is possible that Russia avoided striking arms factories, hoping to take the factories intact, and possibly disassemble them and move them to Russia.

·       The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is shuttering operations in Russia and Belarus.  Earlier this month, EBRD approved an additional €2 billion in financing for Ukraine.   Prior to the start of the war, EBRD supplanted Moscow as its Eastern Europe Headquarters.

·       Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan is ready to supply Ukraine with fuel to ensure the upcoming spring sowing and for the duration of the war.

·       Russian Civil Actions Continue - Russia continues kidnapping Ukrainian civic officials and journalists.  Deputies from Henichesk Kherson Oblast and a journalist on Kyiv’s outskirts were kidnapped by Russians yesterday.

·       Cluster Bombs - Ukraine’s prosecutor general has filed two criminal charges against Russia for the use of cluster bombs in Kharkiv and Odesa.

·       Russian Oil Production - Russia’s crude oil exports have fallen by 26% according to Russian statistics.  If the drop in exports included exports to China, and the oil was produced in Eastern Siberia, this drop may be the result of the departure from Russia of 3 American oil service companies, Halliburton, Baker Hughes and Schlumberger.

·       Ukraine’s Crime Rate - Ukraine’s crime rate has fallen by 60% from the beginning of the invasion.

·       The Kharkiv Cat - The story of a Kharkiv housecat, named Stepan, rescued along with other animals from the Kharkiv Zoo encouraged donations of over $10,000 to a fund that assists Ukrainian zoos and homeless animals.   Here is Stepan, doing an ad for Valentino handbags.

·       Russian Investor Visas - The European Commission recommended that passports given to Russian investors be withdrawn or nullified.  A great number of Russians have obtained EU passports in this manner.

Ukraine’s intelligence service released a list of 620 Russian spies active in the EU.

REGIONAL

Russia has announced that they are substantially scaling back operations around Kyiv and Chernihiv, and re-deploying troops to Donbas.   The news about Chernihiv is potentially significant since Russia has surrounded Chernihiv.  Russia has also sent 1,000 mercenaries from the Wagner Group to Donbas.

Yesterday on the outskirts of Irpin, a satellite city northwest of Kyiv, a force of ten Ukrainian territorial defenders and one tank destroyed a Russian force of sixty Russian soldiers, including three tanks, two armored personnel carriers and one support vehicle.  In the skirmish the Ukrainian tank destroyed two Russian tanks and a personnel carrier before it lost its track.  The third Russian tank fired at the Ukrainians but missed.  The Ukrainian tank replied with a glancing shot which so frightened the Russian crew that they abandoned their tank.  The Ukrainian crew immediately occupied the abandoned Russian tank and destroyed the remaining personnel carrier and support vehicle.  Eight Russians escaped on foot, six surrendered and the remainder were liquidated.  The Ukrainian tank was manned by three third year cadets from the Ukrainian tank academy.  The Ukrainians had no casualties or wounded.    Yesterday, the Mayor of Irpin announced that his city had been liberated.

A successful Ukrainian counterattack on the Russians forces in Chernihiv oblast destroyed a tank, 2 armored jeeps and damaged another 8 vehicles.  The counter attackers also captured a heavy-duty transport truck loaded with military food rations.

Russian shelling continues to destroy the civilian infrastructure of Chernihiv city.

Russians kidnapped a driver at a check point in Sumy Oblast, took him to fields fifty kilometers away from the checkpoint, stripped him, kept him standing in the field for ten hours then allowed him to dress and drove him back to the Checkpoint and released him with his car and belongings.  if the report is true, there appears to be no explanation for this bizarre story. 

A Russian tank drove over a family walking down the street in the village of Chymakove, Sumy Oblast killing the father and wounding the mother and daughter.

In Trostianets which was liberated a few days ago local authorities have started hospitalizing citizens who were wounded.  Some have been waiting for treatment for shrapnel wounds, and other reasons related to war since March 9.  Local authorities also found a corpse in the basement of an apartment building.  The man appears to have been killed during torture sessions as his body was covered with fresh lesions, bruises, stab wounds and broken fingers and toes.

Russians shelled Lebedyna, Velyka Pisarivka, Olexandrivka and Velukii Sambir in Sumy Oblast.

Russian shelling partially destroyed a historical site in Kharkiv.  The site was a Kharkiv fire station built in 1887.  The mayor of Kharkiv reports that 1,117 buildings have been completely destroyed or damaged by Russian shelling since the start of the invasion.

The Pentagon reports that Russian forces are pushing south from Kharkiv and are attempting to cut off Ukrainian forces located in Donbas.

Russia unsuccessfully attacked in five locations along the front established in 2014 in the Donbas.

Shelling of Severodonetsk, Rubizhno, Lisichansk and Shchedryshchevomy continued.  23 buildings destroyed, 2 killed and 10 wounded in Luhansk Oblast.

Shelling of Avdiivka and Mylolaivka continued.  15 buildings destroyed, 3 killed and 5 wounded in Donetsk Oblast.

The mayor of Mariupol released a statement yesterday regarding the current situation.  The Mayor said that 150,000 civilians have been evacuated and that the remaining 160,000 need help in evacuating.  He said that over 5,000 civilians have been killed.  He ended with a statement that Mariupol is still capable of defending itself against the invaders.

Ukrainian agents in Russia provided the Ukrainian military with information and targeting regarding the amphibious landing ship that was destroyed in Berdiansk. 

 Ukrainian forces counterattacking in Kherson oblast captured two working Russian tanks and a high caliber armored mobile anti-aircraft machine gun.

Explosions and gunfire were heard through the night in the city of Kherson.  Ukrainian forces counter attacking in the three raions (districts) of Kherson Oblast.

Demonstrations against the occupiers took place yesterday in Enerhodar, Zaporishia Oblast and Nova Kakhovka Kherson oblast.

A Russian rocket hit the Oblast administration building in Mykolaiv causing significant damage.  10 people are missing and there is hope they will be found in the rubble.  Eight people managed to escape the rubble independently.  Another 100 were evacuated.  Fighting is ongoing thirty kilometers north of Mykolaiv.

Ukrainian counter attackers defending Kryvi Rih, a city in the South West corner of Dnipro Oblast and President Zelenskyy’s home town, drove Russian forces 60 kilometers from the city and liberated two villages in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces have translated their fear of Ukrainian farmers into a rocket attack on a Ukrainian farm in Southern Dnipro Oblast.  No one was injured in the attack.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

https://play.tavr.media/radiobayraktar/