Ukraine – 3/28/23 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
March 28, 2023
Economic & Fiscal Assessment – Adam Tooze/Substack
Recently we included an article about the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) being named 2022 Central Bank of the Year. This is an excellent Substack blog by Adam Tooze that provides more detail. Some takeaways:
· In October 2022 Andriy Pyshnyy, the current NBU Governor, reached a deal with the Government of Ukraine that included the NBU’s commitment to stop printing more money to finance the war effort.
· Ukraine’s external financing needs, in 2023, beyond what is generated internally, are estimated to be $38 billion.
· The NBU and the Government of Ukraine has agreed to use a combination of the domestic debt market, that became a major source of funding for Ukraine prior to the war, donor cooperation and the IMF.
· Ukraine entered into a probationary monitoring agreement with the IMF that resulted in the announcement last March 21st, of the IMF’s proposed loan agreement of $15.6 billion, the first time that the IMF has agreed to aid a member state at a time when it’s involved in a war.
· Meanwhile, Ukraine’s economy appears to be stabilizing, as indicated by growth in payment card transactions, the import of approximately 500,000 electrical generators, and the remarkable work being done to restore Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure.
· There will still be austerity measures, necessary to support the military and the integrity of Ukraine’s medical infrastructure.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” describes the wanton destruction of Avdiivka by Russian aviation and artillery, and Ukraine’s likely decision to evacuate the remaining civilians. Meanwhile, he reports of continued losses of Russian soldiers and armor at the hands of Ukraine. 2 important points:
· Avdiivka has been a front-line city since 2014. Since then, Ukraine has built 3 rings of defense lines along the original line of contact that was established after the initial Russian invasion in 2014. These defense lines still exist. The account in today’s “Reporting From Ukraine” describes the difficulties that the Russians are having in breaching those defense lines, especially north of Avdiivka.
· Since the war began, a vast majority of the destruction and loss of civilian life at the hands of the Russians have taken place in regions of Ukraine where there are large number of Russian speakers, if not a majority. This includes Kharkiv, Mariupol, Khersson, Bakhmut and many other places, making Russia’s claim that they invaded Ukraine to “protect” Russian speakers into the abject lie that it always has been.
3/28/23 Sitrep
Note From Bohdan – Reconstruction isn’t waiting until the end of the War.
The war is far from over but nonetheless now is the time to begin thinking about what to do about the destruction. Some, with previous experience, or an overwhelming interest, are already doing something. One French engineering and construction company - NeoEco, has begun rebuilding a large block of destroyed 3 and 5 story housing units in Gostomel. The primary building material, accounting for over 75% of need, is reused materials from destroyed housing, roads, utility infrastructure, and others. The company, with many years prior experience in this construction approach expects a 25% cost saving.
The design concept is to build a fifteen-minute district, where access to schools to supermarkets and all needed services are within fifteen minutes on foot or bicycle. Only ten percent of the materials from destroyed housing are not reusable. The project is partially financed by the French government but is raising equal amounts of funding from community sources. At the end of the day in place of 310 housing units there will be 452. In their first three months they have reused 15,000 tons of building waste and have signed contracts for similar projects in Odesa and Mykolaiv.
There are other similar builders/engineers such as Tipping Point which builds everything from plane runways off the coast of Japan conserving land, to bridge pylons in the US from industrial waste such as cement, mine tailings and other.
Ukraine reconstruction with a community focus that reuses building waste can provide positives. For one it need not increase the amount of waste. For another it may finally offer energy efficient housing. Lastly, it may be the ideal time to tear down and rebuild many of the idle brownfield sites of never completed factories and housing scattered across all of Ukraine. These sites dating back to the Soviet period, visual twins to the masterpieces wrought by the rashists, can finally be removed.
We could, also out of interest, give someone like Google a 100 or more hectares (approximately 250 acres), for them to practice building a smart city in a place like Mariupol.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon March 27 to 12:00 noon March 28, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Tuesday March 28
00:50: US President Joe Biden has used his emergency powers to expand the production of microelectronics, in particular printed
· In the form of a memorandum, the US President addressed Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on this issue.
00:22 Spiegel: Germany wants to increase military assistance to Ukraine fivefold.
· The publication notes that Germany wants to multiply the cost of military assistance to Ukraine in the coming years.
· "Berlin wants to increase aid from 3 to over 15 billion euros," Spiegel added.
00:05: Russia, by its decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, demonstrates its weakness, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said.
· "Serious sanctions, the deployment of troops in the Baltic States and the increase in the number of air and sea defense systems on NATO's eastern flank will be a signal of solidarity and determination, not fear and evasion," he wrote.
Monday March 27
23:50: Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with Polish President Andrzej Duda.
· "I told him about the course of hostilities, the situation in certain sections of the front. We discussed the current defense needs of Ukraine and joint diplomatic efforts for the near future. We are preparing for important events," the President of Ukraine said.
23:40: A meeting of the UN Security Council in connection with Russia's plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus will be held on Tuesday or Wednesday, the US post-mission to the UN.
23:10: The UN Security Council has not adopted a Russian-Chinese resolution investigating the explosions at Nord Streams.
· Only Russia, China and Brazil were in favor. It is noted that no one voted "against", the rest of the members of the Security Council abstained.
22:11: The United States sees no signs of any movement of Russian nuclear weapons or intention to use them in Ukraine.
· This was stated by the coordinator of the US National Security Council for Strategic Communications John Kirby, reports CNN.
· "So far, we haven't seen anything that would force us to change our strategic deterrence posture," Kirby said.
21:22: Canada imposes a tenth package of sanctions on Iran, with drone and ballistic missile manufacturers under restrictions.
· This was reported on the page of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Canada.
· "The sanctions package includes eight people and two organizations," the statement said.
19:36 Bloomberg: Hungary approves Finland's accession to NATO.
· Now this decision has not yet been ratified by only one Allied country — Turkey.
19:20: Poland will increase the production of ammunition for its own and Ukrainian army.
· This was stated by the Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki during a press conference.
· "In the coming days, the Council of Ministers will adopt a special long-term program that will support the production of ammunition in different parts of our country," Morawiecki said.
17:48: The British Ministry of Defence has released a documentary about the training of Ukrainian tankers on the Challenger 2 tank.
17:12 Spiegel: 18 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany have already been delivered to Ukraine.
· The publication also reports that Ukraine also received Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
16:13: Poland will not hand over to Ukraine all the MiG-29 fighters it has in service and will do so in stages.
· This was stated by Deputy Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland Pawel Jablonski in an interview with RMF24.
15:05: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to suspend judicial reform, which has sparked mass protests.
· He announced this to the head of the Israeli government coalition after a meeting with the leaders of the factions, kan radio reports.
14:51: Exercises with the participation of troops of three NATO countries - the Ministry of Defense of Moldova - will start in Moldova.
· The military of the Moldovan, Romanian, American and British special forces will take part in the exercises. Multinational exercise JCET-2023 will be held from 27 March to 7 April and will focus on joint training and exchange of experience between the military.
14:35: China is against the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, — the country's Foreign Ministry.
· According to China, it is necessary to reduce risks, not increase them. In the current circumstances, "all parties should focus on a diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian crisis" and "jointly contribute to the détente of the situation."
13:51: Japan will continue to participate in oil and gas projects in Sakhalin for its energy security, says Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at a speech in parliament.
NATIONAL
Tuesday March 28
11:37: Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video showing hundreds of destroyed, damaged, or robbed religious buildings because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
· "All religions and denominations, including churches, mosques, synagogues, educational and administrative buildings of religious communities of Ukraine, have suffered," the President said.
10:51: The former president of Motor Sich blocked the supply of a helicopter for the Defence Intelligence in April 2022.
· Counterintelligence and investigators of the Security Service exposed new facts of criminal activity of the President of JSC "Motor Sich".
· According to the investigation, in April last year, the Defence Ministry's Intelligence Directorate submitted a request to Motor Sich to supply an MI-2 helicopter. Boguslaev ordered to disassemble the helicopter into parts and hide the operational documentation.
10:09 Operational Command South: Russia has changed tactics and is more likely to use aircraft to launch strikes.
· "There is more bet on aviation than on naval missile carriers. According to the analysis of the previous two days, we see that the enemy has intensified in our southern direction, in particular in the Kherson region, in the area of Beryslav, intensified the use of aviation and guided aerial bombs."
09:43: Defence Minister Alexei Reznikov posted a video of British Challenger 2 tanks already arriving in Ukraine.
07:12 General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· At night, to launch airstrikes, the Russians used 15 strike UAVs of the Shahed-136 type. 14 of them were destroyed by our defenders,
· Over the past day, the Russians launched 24 air and 12 missile strikes, carried out 55 attacks from the MLRS. On March 27, as a result of a missile strike on the infrastructure of the city of Sloviansk, Donetsk region, civilians were injured and there were dead. Multi-storey and private houses were damaged. In the Kherson region, in the city of Beryslav, a civilian object was damaged by an enemy air strike.
· the Russians are focusing their main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions. The fiercest battles continue for Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka,
· Thanks to professional and coordinated actions, during the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repulsed 62 enemy attacks in these areas.
· The Russians continue to strengthen regime measures in the temporarily occupied territories. Recently, there has been a tendency when restrictions are imposed on the free movement of Ukrainian citizens between settlements,
· In the Horlivka district of the Donetsk region, as well as in the Kakhovka district of the Kherson region, it is impossible to get to some settlements without local registration.
· Over the past day, the aviation of the Defense Forces has inflicted 9 strikes on areas of concentration of Russian personnel, as well as one on the anti-aircraft missile system. Also, during the past day, our soldiers shot down 5 reconnaissance UAVs of various types,
· Units of rocket troops and artillery, at the same time, hit 3 control points, as well as the area of concentration of Russian manpower, an artillery unit on a firing position, an ammunition depot, a warehouse of fuel and lubricants and two other important targets of the Russians.
Monday March 27
20:20: Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov showed new equipment, which is already in the units of paratroopers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· "Today I had the honor, together with the commander of the Airborne Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Major General Maxim Mirgorodsky and our paratroopers, to display the new equipment in our reinforced units," Reznikov wrote.
19:06: Outstanding athletes of Kyiv will receive a scholarship from the city of Kyiv; Vitaliy Klitschko.
· Scholarships will be paid monthly in the amount of four subsistence minimums per able-bodied person - the corresponding order was signed by the mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko.
· This year, a competition committee formed by the Department of Youth and Sports awarded scholarships to 88 athletes.
18:26 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on March 27:
· "During the day, the enemy inflicted 7 air and 10 missile strikes, carried out more than 15 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems at the positions of our troops and civilian infrastructure of settlements.
· S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles continue to be widely used for missile strikes."
· "The enemy focuses its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions.
· The fiercest battles continue for Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka. Thanks to professional and coordinated actions, during the day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repulsed 41 enemy attacks in these areas.
· "During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces inflicted 9 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers, as well as one - on the anti-aircraft missile system."
· "During the day, our soldiers shot down an enemy Orlan-10 UAV.
· Units of rocket troops and artillery hit 2 control points and the area of concentration of enemy manpower."
16:23: IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, together with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, visited the Dnipro HPP in Zaporizhia and inspected the recent dam damage.
14:21 Naval Command: In the Black Sea, 7 Russian ships are on alert, of which 1 is a carrier of cruise missiles "Caliber", the total volley of which is 4 missiles.
· According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians also deployed 2 ships in the Sea of Azov, and 7 in the Mediterranean, of which 3 are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles, the total volley of which is 20 missiles.
13:02: The SBU neutralized an FSB agent group that was preparing missile strikes on Ukrzaliznytsia's facilities and selected personnel in the Russian administration
· The group consisted of eight local residents. One of them used the status of an assistant to the current people's deputy of Ukraine and the identity of a journalist for cover.
· The attackers collected intelligence about the locations and movements of the Defense Forces in the regions. Also, during the temporary occupation of Izyum and Balaklea, the defendants selected candidates for the local occupation administrations.
Mordor - russia
Monday March 27
21:55 The Wall Street Journal: In exchange for the Shahedi kamikaze drones, Russia supplies Iran with cyber weapons, including digital surveillance capabilities.
· According to the WSJ, the key provider of Iran's cyber services is the Russian company Proteus, which has contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
· "The Russian authorities have decided that the benefits of deepening military relations with Iran outweigh any disadvantages," the publication writes.
KHARKIV
Monday March 27
12:51 Kharkiv RMA: In fact, every day there are recorded cases of civilians detonating on explosive objects.
· "Today, in the village of Bugayivka, Chuhuiv district, a 62-year-old man blew up on a mine near a pond. He was hospitalized in a state of moderate severity," Sinegubov said.
DONETSK
Tuesday March 28
10:34: Russia launched a missile strike on Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, at night.
· Mayor Oleksandr Honcharenko said that a school, a kindergarten, 6 private houses and an enterprise building were damaged.
Monday March 27
23:37 Social Networks: In Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, explosions are heard
20:07: The number of victims of Russian strikes on Sloviansk has increased to 36.
· This was announced by the mayor of the city Vadim Lyakh.
18:40 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region.
16:41: According to updated data, the number of wounded because of the strike on Sloviansk has increased to 32, police in the Donetsk region said.
· It is noted that the five wounded are in extremely serious condition.
15:41: In the temporarily occupied Novotroitsk Donetsk region, the composition of Russian munitions is detonating, said Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.
13:36: Volunteers, journalists and other civilians were banned from entering Avdiivka, says Vitaliy Barabash, head of the city military administration.
· According to him, the situation around Avdiivka is tense, it is in the "red zone". Therefore, an order was received to ban everyone from entering the city.
13:21 Donetsk RMA: As of 13:00, two dead and 29 wounded due to shelling of the center of Sloviansk are known
12:31 Donetsk RMA: At least 1 person killed and 25 injured in today's shelling of Sloviansk
· Administrative and office buildings, 5 high-rise buildings and 7 private houses were destroyed. the Russians hit the city center at about 10:30 a.m. with two S300 missiles.
· In addition, at the same time, Druzhkivka suffered a missile strike - two S300 missiles hit the Druzhkovka orphanage and almost completely destroyed it.
12:16: Footage from the scene of the explosion of the car of the so-called "chief" of the police of the temporarily occupied Mariupol.
ZAPORIZHIA
Monday March 27
15:53: Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the leading positions in the Zaporizhia region and awarded the Ukrainian military.
· "I thank each of our soldiers for the protection of Ukraine, our sovereignty, our cities, our children. We will definitely win," the president wrote.
· visited the command post of the operational group of troops "Zaporozhye".
o "He presented orders and medals to employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, the National Guard, the National Police, the State Border Guard Service, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine," the President wrote.
· held a meeting on the situation in Zaporizhia region.
o The meeting discussed the operational situation, the readiness of military units and units to perform their assigned tasks, the socio-economic situation in the region, and the needs of internally displaced persons.
· awarded Ukrainian servicemen undergoing treatment in the Zaporizhia region.
o "I also met with those who save lives - our military doctors. They are doing a very important job," the president wrote.
· Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the site of the tragedy in Zaporizhia, where on March 22, Russians launched a missile strike on residential buildings.
o "The affected residents were provided with the necessary medical care, as well as temporary housing for those who need it," the president wrote.
DNIPRO
Tuesday March 28
08:22 Dnipro RMA: At night, the Russians attacked the Dnipropetrovsk region with drones.
· Two drones were destroyed by soldiers from the command "East". Another was targeted by a private enterprise in Dnipro. There was a strong fire there. The fire covered 4 thousand square meters. The fire has already been extinguished. It passed without casualties.
00:35 Dnipro RMA: Today, the Russian army attacked the Nikopol district. Nikopol itself and the Marganese community fired from the UAV. The latter was struck by a kamikaze drone.
· "A 51-year-old man was injured. He was hospitalized in a state of moderate severity. An educational institution, a private house and a car were damaged," Lysak added.
Monday March 27
22:22 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Dnipro.
KHERSON
Tuesday March 28
11:27: Explosions are heard again in Kherson, according to subscribers. We are waiting for official information.
11:26: At night, the Russian army shelled a medical facility in Kherson. Russians fired mortars at a hospital located in the Dniprovskyi district of the city - RMA.
· Shells damaged the main building of the institution, knocked out almost all windows, damaged batteries and heating system. In addition, Russian artillery hit the production premises of the post office.
· Civilians were not injured.
11:12: Tonight, the Russians hit a local hospital in Kherson.
08:07 Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson
Monday March 27
21:35 Social Networks: Explosions heard again in Kherson
18:10 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
18:07 Kherson RMA: Russians shell Beryslav all day with aircraft and artillery.
· "Three people are known to have suffered as a result of heavy shelling. Two of them were seriously injured. Everyone is provided with medical care," Prokudin wrote.
ODESA
Tuesday March 28
10:23: The light in Odessa disappeared. Locals report outages in some areas.
· DTEK confirmed power outages, saying that an emergency shutdown of the high-voltage network had occurred.
Monday March 27
14:06: The SBU liquidated a corruption scheme at the Main Directorate of the State Food and Consumer Service in Odesa region related to the "grain agreement", the SBU said.
· The participants of the deal demanded money from representatives of companies that export Ukrainian agricultural products within the framework of the "grain agreement".
· SBU officers gradually documented two episodes of receiving almost 400 thousand rubles. in hryvnia equivalent by an intermediary who was attracted by officials to transfer bribes.
KYIV
Tuesday March 28
01:01 Kyiv RMA: According to preliminary information, our air defense forces in the airspace around Kyiv detected and destroyed all enemy targets.
· "The fall of UAV wreckage in the Svyatoshinsky district of Kyiv was recorded, as a result of which there was a fire in a non-residential building on an area of about 200 m2"
00:50: The fire in the Svyatoshinsky district of the capital was localized, - Vitaliy Klitschko.
· No casualties were found.
00:29: There are no casualties beforehand, - Vitali Klitschko about the situation in the capital.
· Also, the mayor of Kyiv reports that fire and rescue services are working at the scene of the fire after the explosion and ignition of the building in the Svyatoshinsky district.
00:04: The store premises are on fire in Svyatoshinsky district. We are clarifying information whether there are victims, – Vitali Klitschko.
Monday March 27
11:54: Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed explosions in the capital.
· Previously – in Obolonsky and Svyatoshinsky districts. All services go to the place. Details – over time.
23:33 Social Networks: You can hear vybukhi in Kyiv
22:29: According to the SBU and NABU, a judge in Kyiv region was sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for bribery.
· "In 2017, SBU officers documented that an official demanded 2.5 thousand rubles from a local resident. USD. and half a million UAH.
· Law enforcement officers detained the official "on the hot" during the transfer of the first part of the bribe in the amount of 2.5 thousand rubles. dollars," the article reads.
10:18: Kyiv RMA warned of the threat of a drone attack.
· "Kyiv region! The threat of an attack by enemy drones! Go to shelters and other safe places. Keep calm and keep the information quiet."
SUMY
Tuesday March 28
09:36: The Russians carried out an airstrike with a guided aerial bomb on Belopole in the Sumy region, the President's Office said.
· As a result of the shelling, the utility building caught fire, 2 private houses, a low-pressure street gas pipeline, and a two-story apartment building were also damaged.
· 1 person was injured.
KHMELNYTSKYI
Monday March 27
11:06: There are emergency blackouts in Khmelnytskyi, Khmelnytskoblenergo said.
· "Outages are recorded in almost all areas of the power grid," the report said.
· The reason is strong winds and sticking of sleet.
CHERNIHIV - Monday March 27
11:52: Command North showed the wreckage of a kamikaze drone that was shot down at night in one of the districts of the Chernihiv region.
ZHYTOMIR - Monday March 27
12:41 Ukrenergo: In Zhytomyr region, due to significant damage to the networks, consumption restrictions are applied. In other regions, there are no restrictions on networks.
· The difficult situation with electricity remains in the regions along the front line, where the Russians are constantly damaging the networks with constant shelling.
State Emergency Services: Yesterday and cumulative discovery and liquidation of land mines
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
● https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
●
https://espreso.tv/
● www.ubn.news