Bob Homans March 28

20220328

Ukraine – 3/28 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
(@rhomansjr)
March 28, 2022

The “30  Mile Column” – What Happened and Lessons Learned –

Many of you have asked about the “30 Mile Column” of Russian armor that was stopped north of Kyiv for several days early in the war.   This article, from the Guardian, is the best account I have seen describing why the column was stopped.    It describes Ukrainian ingenuity in action, especially the effectiveness of homemade drones.   There are several lessons that need to be drawn from Ukraine’s success in stopping this column, including:

·       What Ukraine is Doing (Independent of Western Military Assistance) – Stopping the 30-Mile Column was, essentially, a Ukrainian operation, from the design and use of the drones to the tactics employed.   This is a reminder that, using homegrown capabilities Ukraine can leverage Western assistance, and serves as a powerful argument for the West to provide whatever assistance Ukraine asks for.

·       U.S. Export Bans - It has been difficult for Ukrainians to acquire the components that go into the drones, such as thermal imaging devices, because of U.S. export bans.   A lot of attention has been paid to the U.S. declining to get involved in providing MiG 29s to Ukraine, but export bans seem to be more limiting than the absence of the MiG 29s.

·       Crowdfunding – Since 2014, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have relied on crowdfunding as a source of funding from both foreign and Ukrainian sources.   There are several platforms, including the Ukraine Freedom Fund, that provide financial and in-kind support to Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

·       Continuing Effect of the 2013/2014 Revolution of Dignity – The article reports that one of the organizers of the drone development program, and the attack on the 30-Mile Column, gained experience during the Revolution of Dignity.  Experience gained during the Revolution of Dignity has paid off in other ways, including: Construction of makeshift hospitals and 1st Aid stations; food preparation and distribution; reliance on civilian drivers for re-supply; the importance of information.

·       The Yavoriv Effect – The Yavoriv Training Center in Lv’iv Oblast was attacked by Russia, costing the lives of over 30 people.   Yavoriv is the place where units of the Ukrainian Army received valuable training from counterparts from the U.S., U.K., Canada, and other western countries.   What is less known is that the training went in both directions.   At Yavoriv, Ukrainians experienced in fighting Russian units in Donbas provided valuable training and information to western counterparts.   The destruction of the 30-Mile Convoy will become another lesson that Ukrainians will impart to western counterparts.

Another Refugee Story –

One comment of mine, in bold face

 Tales of a brave 84-year old and brave volunteers

Walked outside today around beautiful Krakow. If I would want to buy a place in EU and Poland, it would be in Krakow; if in Ukraine, it would be Kyiv. “If I were a rich man, yaba  diba diba diba dum,” (cue Fiddler on the Roof music) then in both Kyiv and Krakow:).

The bad-ass 84-year old babcia catching Russian agents: The photo shows me and Lyuba, originally from Lviv oblast.  She has lived/worked in Krakow for the past 7 years. 5 days a week she helps a Polish IT specialist who broke his back in an accident, and on the weekends she cooks breakfast and cleans the hotel where we are staying in Krakow. 

This morning we struck a conversation. I guess it is my personality to strike up conversations with almost everyone.  

Lyuba is sick with worry about her 29-year old nurse daughter, and 25-year old medical resident youngest daughter in Ukraine, both of whom refuse to leave Ukraine. They came to Krakow for a week to take a break, sleep without sirens and explosions, and then returned home to volunteer, make molotov cocktails, etc.

--“Mom,” they said when Lyuba tried to convince them to stay in Krakow, “we are needed there.”

Those brave young ladies have a bad-ass 84-year-old babcia (babushka-granny), Lyuba’s mother in law. One recent morning in the small town of Sambir, Lvivska oblast, the 84-year old noticed a young man taking photos of one of their buildings in their town.

--“What are you doing, and why are you taking photos?” asked the 84-year old granny.

--“Just taking photos,” answered the 20-something guy. 

--“Why?” their granny persisted.

--“Just as mementos,” answered the guy.

Hmmm… thought the granny.  This is not a historical building; why would he need the photos? She quickly yelled for a neighbor.  The neighbor called her father; together they encircled the guy and called the police, who apprehended the interloper.  He claimed he was from Kyiv, but he had photos on his phone of the hallways of that building and also pictures of buildings in Cherkasy, central Ukraine.

5th Columnists like this person, have been a continuing problem in Ukraine.  Sometimes they act directly, as is likely in this case, of they act through innocents like the 3 teenage girls from a village near Bela Tsirkva (70km south of Kyiv) who were paid by a 5th Columnist to take photos of sites with military value.

There are a number of spies and saboteurs who have been showing up in places across Ukraine, including posing as Internally Displaced people (IDPs), intending to report to the Russian intelligence (FSB) and military the position of Ukrainian military or certain objects and locations. 

But Russians have little chance for total victory when Ukrainian farmers steal their tanks and 84 year old grandmothers catch spies. 

Reconnecting with friends outside, supporting volunteers inside: A month into the war and wave of refugees, 3.5 million overall and 2+ million into Poland, Poles are still very, very nice to people from Ukraine. They know that Ukrainians are holding back the crazy Russian war machine with their bodies and buildings, dying not only for their land, but also for Central and Eastern Europe, for the very idea of Europe. 

For the rest of this post, I’m not going to name people or include their photos because they might be targeted in Ukraine by Russians. 

Saturday I met an old Ukrainian friend who asserted that in order for Ukrainians /Ukraine to stay safe, Russia needs to be destroyed as a country/institution.  Not the Russian people; not civilians killed, but the country in its current form needs to fall apart, like the Soviet Union in 1991. 

Every time I meet any of my Ukrainian friends now, our hugs are long and strong.  We all miss our family members in different countries, different parts of the worlds.  Some people have made it out – particularly those with small children.  Others remain in Ukraine, particularly those with elderly parents who cannot travel.  Still others volunteer – not just to fight, but to support all the efforts that keep Ukrainians and Ukraine going.

I transferred some money by Paypal to a volunteer and friend who drives around Kyiv and its region a humanitarian aid several days ago, and then my Paypal login got blocked.  Then I started to get my friends and family in the U.S. get involved. No luck anymore by Paypal, it seems. So Paypal is not very reliable way of transferring money to those who need it in Ukraine. 

But I’m not giving up.  I can’t give up. Too many people are waiting and need help in Ukraine. 

Since most of the refugees whom I situated in better places in Europe outside of Ukraine are not in immediate need of funds, I have turned my focus in recent days to people and volunteers in need in Ukraine.  So far, through Signal I have coordinated a bank transfer from a friend in the U.S. through Western Union to a wonderful musician friend who is volunteering b feeding Ukrainian border guards on Ukraine Belarusian border – similar efforts kept Ukrainian soldiers in the east fed in 2014-16 until the logistics system caught up.  My friend said the situation there is super tense – as the reports from Chernihiv this weekend attest.

Lots of stories and pictures about Ukrainians evacuating with their pets.  Still, many are left behind.  I know of a young girl in Kyiv who goes to a dog shelter and walks the dogs, because those dogs’ owners either fled their homes by foot, by train, or are simply dead from Russian bombs.  There is also a story about the animals of Makariv, but I will save that for a future update.

Others are focused on remaining alive, particularly in southern Ukraine, where the brutal Russian assault on Mariupol is becoming a new symbol of inhumanity.  There are some whom I am still trying to help get out of southern cities through information, looking for safe ways and routes to escape. There is a lot of disinformation. Wrong place at wrong time can mean death.

A friend in a city on the Sea of Azov (whose name I will not mention b/c on the Russian wanted/kill list) told that they will be among those people taken away to Russia in a van, if the Russians discover where they are. So why are they there? An elderly parent. Will try to figure out how to safely get them out.

Another friend’s mother with a 10-year-old child is stranded in another occupied southern city. Why did she not leave earlier? Again, elderly parents, combined with a false sense of security of being home.  It is still quiet and safe here, they think, until it is not. And then too late.

Disinformation plays a role. This mother was told a lie that if she were to go to Europe with a child as a single mother, “western” social services would take her kid away from here, and she will be enslaved.  We heard the exact same disinformation that single mothers would have their children stolen two weeks ago, from a young mother from Donetsk with her daughter Yesfir, the one with a red suitcase in Diaries in Exile No. 10, “What will the kids remember?”
(link: https: //youtu.be/yVpLfqnKrtM).  

Seems ridiculous to us, but disinformation succeeds by planting seeds of doubt. Some sprout.

3/28 Sitrep (my comments in bold face) –

Russian forces have lowered the intensity of ground attacks and Ukrainian forces continue maneuvering looking for advantageous positions to counterattack.  Ukraine continues receiving munitions and arms but is not burning them in unproductive counter attacks.

Ukraine has received significant support, including numerous volunteers wanting to come and take part in the battle.  Many of these volunteers, have recent military battleground experience.  Probably more don’t.

Since starting this bulletin I have read reports of significant support provided by international fighters in the territorial self-defense forces and the national guard.  Also, I have read reports of national groups such as Belarusians, Georgians, Chechens and others who create their own platoons and place themselves under the command of the Ukrainian military or national guard.

The self-organized national units, and it appears from reports experienced military individuals, outfit themselves at their own expense or with assistance from their own country.  They receive a small fraction of their gear from the Ukrainian government.  Munitions they get.

Ukraine lacks the ability to fully outfit the forces it already has in the field.  Currently I am trying to help self-defense forces in Kyiv, Zhytomir and Dnipro to get gear.  As I mentioned earlier there is a retired American Marine colonel doing the same.  I am aware of two British nationals also doing that.    There is also an individual, an American of Ukrainian descent married to a Ukrainian doing the same thing on behalf of a battalion being organized in Kharkiv.

The organizing of battalions is a tradition that traces its origins back to the Cossacks but had its rebirth during the 2013/2014 Revolution of Dignity.   The battalions organized during the Revolution of Dignity formed the backbone of the re-organized Ukrainian Army that began in 2014.  We are seeing the results today.

As reported earlier Ukraine faces the problem that there are more Ukrainian volunteers than the country can arm.  To capitalize on the wave of international support the Ukrainian government created the International Legion.

It appears that volunteers without combat experience are being directed to join that legion.  The legion appears real in the media but, it is nonexistent as the government lacks the resources to provide training and gear.  The volunteers are not getting either and are becoming disillusioned. 

Losing volunteer support is a much greater reputational loss than the short-term reputational gain from announcing the creation of the International Legion.  The Ukrainian government should apologize and make clear that it is under equipped.

National - Russia decided to punish Switzerland for uniting with international sanctions.  Russia’s Federal Security Service confiscated over one million Swiss Francs of luxury watches from the Moscow Audemars Piguet’s retail outlet.  Given that the average price of one of these luxury watches is $42,000 and the Franc is worth $1.07 that’s about 25 watches. 

The hackers group №385 broke into the servers of the media holding that controls Russian state media outlets and announced they will release 870 GB of confidential corporate and political information shortly.

Ukrainian intelligence reports that over the last five days Russia sent 600 military corpses to Nizhny Novgorod Oblast in Russia.  The oblast is east of Moscow.  Apparently, there is no spare capacity to process dead Russians closer to the Ukrainian border.

Intelligence also reports that Russia is sending Iskandr rockets to Belarus to replenish depleted munitions.  Russia has been launching Iskandr rockets from Belarus to targets in Ukraine.  The Iskandr has a 500 km range and a 500 kg warhead.  Yesterday they hit Volyn with an Iskandr.

The current conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is diverting some of Russia’s military attention from Ukraine.  Azerbaijan reminded Russia that Nagorno Karabakh is not an independent territory but a part of Azerbaijan.  Its reminder was reinforced by the fact that Azeri forces have advanced further into the area.  Theoretically Russian forces are there to hold back Azeri forces from these advances.

Ukraine demanded that the UN send a peace keeping force to protect the Chernobyl Nuclear Sarcophagus and demilitarize the radioactively contaminated zone around it.  Currently forest fires are affecting 10,000 square kilometers around the installation.  Russian forces are preventing Ukrainian firefighters from extinguishing and controlling the blazes.

The United States are sending emergency supplies of diesel to Ukraine to replace some of the fuel lost in the recent destruction of fuel bases in Rivno, Lutsk, and Lviv.

As of today, Russia has taken into custody 36 Ukrainian civic officials and community leaders.  Zelensky said that a number of them have been found dead in an interview with the Economist.

President Zelensky yesterday gave an interview to 6 Russian journalists.  The Russian government immediately banned media release of the interview in Russia.

According to “The Insider” yesterday Russia fired seventy rockets at targets in Ukraine.  Of rockets fired only eight hit their targets.  Most of the rockets were destroyed by the Ukrainian air defense.  The Insider estimated that manufacturing cost of the rockets at $320 million, and that logistics and firing costs were another $180 million.

Ukraine is unable to export its grain reserves by sea and started exporting them by train through Poland.

The cities of Chernihiv and Mariupol, both surrounded by Russian forces continue resisting the invaders.  Both are suffering significant human and material losses.  There is practically no housing left in either of them and Russian forces continue shelling both.

REGIONAL

Yesterday’s demonstrations in Slavytuch ended with Russian soldiers killing three and wounding two.  After this the forces left the city but.  Russians put up checkpoint on all the approaches to the city.

Nizhin, a Chernihiv County city center, east of Chernihiv came under artillery fire yesterday without causing serious damage.

The commander of Russian forces whose tactical battle group was demolished by the victorious Ukrainian attack on Trostianets, Sumy Oblast, committed suicide rather than surrender.  His commander in Moscow was removed from his position.

Skirmishes occurred near Kamyanka, Topolske and and Sukha Kamyanka, near Izium, Kharkiv Oblast.  Ukrainian counterattacks cleared Russian forces from Mala Rohan and Vilkhiv on the ring road around the city of Kharkiv. 

Russian shelling and rockets continue destroying and damaging civilian housing in the Oblast.  4 killed and 1 injured in the village of Oskil, near Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, after a rocket hit their home.  In all over the last 24 hours over 200 hundred artillery and rocket attacks have been recorded in the Oblast.

Russian Forces tried to breach Ukrainian defenses 5 times in the Donbas in the last twenty-four hours.  None of the attacks was successful and the Russians lost 2 tanks, an armored personnel carrier and a troop truck in these efforts.

Yesterday rescue crews were able to save 155 people from the rubble of a collapsed school which served as bomb shelter in Rubizhno, Luhansk Oblast.  Last night Rubizhno was shelled again, damaging another building, killing one and wounding another person.

Russia has cut off phone, internet and media links between Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast and Ukraine.  The quizling mayor of Melitopol announced yesterday that she has formed a town council to run the city.

Demonstrators came out on the streets protesting against the occupation in Nova Khakovka and Kherson, Kherson Oblast.  Russian dispersed the demonstrators in Kherson using sound and light grenades in Kherson.  The Russians shot and killed three demonstrators in Kherson and wounded another five.

Ukrainian forces are actively battling with Russians in the northern regions of the Oblast.  The Russians are trying to break through to Dnipro Oblast.

Three Russian rockets landed near the cities of Zhytomir and Korosten without causing serious damage.

Russian rockets hit a fuel storage base in Dubno, Rivno Oblast the day before yesterday.  Yesterday they hit a fuel storage base near Lutsk, Volyn Oblast.  Both bases were completely destroyed.

Ukrainian air defense shot down three rockets aimed at targets in Volyn Oblast.

Six Russian rockets hit the outskirts of Lviv.  The rockets caused a fire at an industrial site, five people wounded but no deaths.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

https://play.tavr.media/radiobayraktar/