Bob Homans March 25

20220325

Ukraine – 3/25 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
March 25, 2022
(My (Bob’s) comments are in Bold Face)

Bob’s contacts: WhatsApp - +1-207-513-0774
US Office - +703-519-1211 US Mobile - +1-207-513-0774

Origin of the “Z” Markings on Russian  Equipment –

I have been asked about this many times.   This is the best explanation I have seen.

Refugee Diaries

This is another YouTube video, containing an interview with a Ukrainian refugee, a 58-year-old single mother with 2 children

Velida in the end sent out a post-midnight update, and then a short one this morning. From her new perch in Krakow, she continues to work on supporting various activist-friends inside Ukraine (Shevket a Crimean Tatar accordion player who is near the Belarus border volunteer cooking food for border guard units; a student of Zoe the pysanka master supporting doctors in Chernihiv’s besieged hospitals) and people attempting to escape Russian occupation (I have no idea who “Dasha from Mariupol now in Berdiansk” is, but I am sure we will learn in the coming days).

Notes from the Border March 24 (29th Day of War)

Farewell to Przemysl, after one month of War: The girls and I walk around the dark, downtown streets of Przemysl. We find a pączky (donut) place, but it is closed.  This is the first time we really explore downtown Przemysl like tourists would.  The NYTimes ran a nice profile of Przemysl escaping past ghosts with its current efforts on Wednesday: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/world/asia/ukraine-poland-border-przemysl.html 

Zakhida from Kyiv: I learned late Wednesday that my Crimean Tatar friend Zakhida had reached Ustriki Dolne (Poland) with her family. I first met Zakhida at Rustem Skybin’s pottery studio in Kyiv. Rustem always has interesting people in his studio, sitting and drinking tea or coffee.  I started driving at 9 pm, a 1.5 hour drive in the pitch dark, on a very windy road to Ustriki Dolne. I made myself motion sick, even though I was behind the wheel. It reminded me of a family drive along the Ukrainian-Romanian border, when I made our car go airborne briefly. But that is a different road trip story.

Zakhida came to Poland on the 7th day of war. She had been driving food for the Ukrainian military guys in Bucha, one of the suburbs northwest of Kyiv that has been fiercely contested and therefore subject to heavy Russian bombing.  She slept in a hallway or a bathroom in her apartment with her daughter to stay away from windows, and finally decided to leave after a week.

The use of private vehicles by ordinary Ukrainians continue to play a significant role in support of the war effort, starting in December 2013, when an organization called “Auto Maidan” was established.  Auto Maidan helped evacuate injured protestors to makeshift hospitals, many of which were established in the basements of churches, and bringing in supplies.   In 2014 & 2015, during the fighting in Donbas, civilian driving their pickup trucks braved enemy fire to re-supply Ukrainian soldiers involved in trying to hold the Donetsk Airport.

Since Zakhida is a Crimean Tatar, we of course ate chebureks - a fried meat-stuffed pastry.  The time of the dinner was irrelevant (it was past midnight). The chebureky were very delicious, and reminded me of my grandparents’ home in Chinaz, Uzbekistan, where the family settled after the 1944 deportation.

We drank lots of tea and talked and talked.  At 1:30 AM, I decided to stay overnight.

I drove home early this morning (here I go again, thinking “home” means Przemysl). I visited a Polish bank to donate money from a friend to the Carmelite monks who help Ukrainians with shelter in one Ukrainian city (some may recall the Monk Andrzej from my tale of two Andrzejs and one Andrey. If anyone is interested in supporting the Carmelite monks’ efforts, DM me for the info).

Went “home” (the apartment we’ve used for three weeks) and was greeted by Elina Alem’s worried face.  Another one of our earlier “settled” placements was not working out.

Amaliia the barista who went from Donetsk to Kharkiv in 2014 and Kyiv to Przemysl to Portugal in 2022, had heard from her mother’s friend hosting her in Portugal after 6 days: “enough.” (As was the case last week with Katya in Warsaw, some people who initially volunteer to host long term prove unprepared for what that means in practice).

Looking for options, Amaliia found someone online and was planning to go to a city near Lisbon. I was concerned about her being victimized by scammers or human traffickers.  I saw them lurking along the border crossing points during the first week, offering rides, and there are stories of them preying on Ukrainian women in Germany, Austria and other EU countries.

“Amaliia,” I counsel her, “when you see the woman picking you up, take a photo of her, her license plates, her name, etc.”

But I was still worried.  So I reach out to my friend Ruth, and want to check the organization which offered Amaliia help. Ruth connects me to the head of an anti-human trafficking organization in Portugal. He tells me to send everything I know about Amallia and her situation.

Whew. Now I feel better, knowing that the right people locally will be watching over Amaliia.  How amazing is that network of friends of friends?

Time to leave our temporary “home” of the past three weeks – the Przemysl apartment of a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend and drive to Krakow, the magnificent southern Polish city that survived WW2 intact and was the imperial Polish capital in earlier centuries.  On Day 29, one month after the start of Russia’s wider war against Ukraine and our crazy flight from Lviv, my time along the border has drawn to a close.  And a return to my real home starts to loom on the horizon.

Notes from the Border, March 25 (30th Day of War)

Katya “Boss” and Vse Bude Ukraina: In the end we found delicious Polish pączki (jelly donuts) before leaving Przemysl - ElinaAlem, Romana and I to Krakow, and Zhenia and Katya to Lviv.  Yum!

Katya from Debaltseve picked up her nickname “Boss” from the first syllable of her last name, but the dual language wordplay fits perfectly.  She was only 13 when Russians violated the February 2015 Minsk I Agreement with German Chanceller Merkel and French President Hollande and seized the key rail hub of Debaltseve in Luhansk Oblast, forcing her family to flee further west, to Kharkiv Oblast. 

Some people crumple in the face of adversity.  Others blossom.  After seeing Katya’s leadership skills, interpersonal skills, wit, energy, and love for Ukraine—as a 20-year-old internally displaced person who hasn’t even finished university! -- I told her that she should not settle on “just” being a geography teacher after the war, her current course of study (not that there is anything wrong with being a teacher.  It is an honorable calling, and my second act profession).  

Katya needs to think bigger.  Find a platform to continue to change her country for the better, whether that is in government service or from civil society - fighting corruption, building institutions and the networks that Ukraine needs and Ukrainians expect.  

Katya is a next generation example of all the strong and patriotic Ukrainian women we have been privileged to get to know when living in Kyiv, first in the wake of the 2004 Orange Revolution, and especially after the 2014 Revolution of Dignity (You all know who you are!). Ukraine has a genuine future with people like Katya coming to the fore.

Katya looked at me, smiled, and replied: “Yes, I know. I will.”

Here is a possible example for Katya.  A friend of mine, an art critic at the time of the start of Euromaidan in December 2013, showed up at a meeting of protest organizers carrying a book with illustrations of the barriers built by the Romans.  She was suggesting that the Roman barriers could be a template for the barriers needed to protect Independence Square.  She was asked to leave.  A couple of days later they called her back.   She later went on to become the Commander of a women’s volunteer battalion during the revolution, spent 6 months in Washington, D.C. at a think tank, studying civilian control of the military, became an adviser to the Minister of Defense, and she is now a Member of Ukraine’s Parliament.

With youth like her, все буде україна (Vse Bude Ukraina). The future will be Ukraine’s.

3/25 Sitrep

Russia suffers an overwhelming fear of Ukraine.  Over the last two weeks they have started kidnapping municipal officials, journalists, and ordinary citizens.  Over the last week they have started forcibly exiling women and children. 

Yesterday, using the playbook of Tsar Nicholas I and Josef Stalin, Russian soldiers began raiding elementary and middle school libraries in Kherson Oblast and pulling Ukrainian history books off the shelves.  They paid particular attention to contemporary history books.  They raided the Kherson apartment of Kateryna Handziuk, a prominent Ukrainian anti-corruption activist.  In November 2018 Handziuk died a painful death after two months in hospital.  She was hospitalized after attackers tied to the Oblast government poured sulfuric acid on her, destroying 80 percent of her skin.

The Russians’ explained their actions saying that Handziuk’s writings and the literature they are destroying does not conform with the Russia’s official opinion.

Russian state media sent a group of journalists and photographers to develop a propaganda piece at the Chernobyl Nuclear Sarcophagus.

Ukrainian and International volunteers and donors are actively equipping a tactical battle group of Belarusians.  The Belarusians, many of them refugees in Ukraine and EU countries, who left Belarus after Lukashenko forcibly retained power, said this is their last chance to fight for Belarusian independence from Russia.   There are reports that Belarusians are sabotaging rail lines leading from Belarus to Russia, and Belarusian train engineers refusing to operate trains containing Belarusian troops.

40% of active development projects have been frozen in Russia.

General - Reuters quoted American military sources that said that depending on the type of Russian cruise missile less than 50% of them hit their target.  Failures include targeting, motor, and flight failures.    There are reports that Russian armament factories are increasingly suffering from lack of components, partly due to the imposition of Western sanctions.

Ukrainian military intelligence claims that there are numerous incidents of Russian soldiers deserting and coming over with their arms to fight against the invading force.

Ukraine’s air command said that the number of Russian aerial attacks fell to minimal levels, whereas the numbers of aerial reconnaissance drones and overflights has increased.

Ukraine’s parliament removed all excise and customs duties, and simplified import procedures on all goods entering Ukraine as humanitarian or military aid for the duration of the war.

Ukraine and Russia held a POW prisoner exchange.  30 for 30.

British Intelligence indicates that Russian forces have been driven back 35 kilometers east of Kyiv.

Apparently Russian commanders have been instructed to end the war in Ukraine by May 9th, a day celebrated in Russia marking the end of the “Great Patriotic War,” known in Russia as “Victory Day.”  Ukraine no longer marks Victory Day, even though much of the fighting during WW-II took place on territory of what is now Ukraine.

Ukrainian Military Intelligence said that half of the battle groups attacking Izium in Kharkiv Oblast withdrew back to Russia as they had lost their ability to fight. 

Derhachi, in Kharkiv Oblast, a home destroyed, one killed and one wounded.  Russian fire was from a tactical Russian drone.

Russian fire destroyed a Kharkiv airport terminal and a Metro supermarket.  6 killed and 17 wounded.  Metro, the German cash and carry supermarket chain has continued operations in Russia.   Earlier today, Kharkiv was hit by 4 cruise missiles fired from Russian ships in the Black Sea.

A Russian attack helicopter destroyed a Russian artillery and ballistic rocket unit that had been shelling the Kharkiv from the village of Mala Rohan.  The mayor of Kharkiv welcomed Russian help in destroying the invading unit.

A humanitarian aid distribution point in Kharkiv was hit by a rocket killing six and wounding 9.

Vyzhorod, on the outskirts of Kyiv was hit by artillery fire damaging an apartment building.   Some of my in-laws live in Vyzhorod.   They evacuated a few weeks ago, and they are now staying in a village around 110km south of Kyiv, courtesy of another family member.   The extent to which Ukrainians are helping each other during this war is extraordinary.

In the forests north of Chernihiv Ukrainian self-defense forces successfully destroyed a Russian column of five machines including a tank, three armored personnel carriers and a supply truck.  There were no survivors.   In addition to the regular army, self-defense forces are being armed with the same weapons, including but not limited to Javelin missile, that are being used by the regular Army.

At least 5 people were killed by shelling of Rybizhno and Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast yesterday.

26 homes were destroyed by fire in Luhansk Oblast, no deaths or injuries were reported.

The mayor of Mariupol indicated that without immediate humanitarian assistance citizens that have not been able to flee will start dying of starvation.

Ukraine’s national guard destroyed a column consisting of an armored personnel carrier, and three troop transport trucks.  There were no survivors.

Russian forces established an interrogation base east of Mariupol to screen civilians fleeing the city.  Those people deemed to be a threat to Russia are being forcibly deported to Russia.

The commanders of the two naval vessels that were hit in Berdiansk yesterday deserted from the Ukrainian navy in 2014.

Ukrainian counter attacks have cleared Russians out of two villages in Zaporizhia oblast.  The aim is to cut off supply lines to Russians surrounding Mariupol.

Russian forces left the airport in Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast, but their relocation closer to the community provided them no relief.  Ukrainian forces shelled them for over six hours last night,

Russian ship to shore fire failed to reach Odesa and the shells fell into the sea. 

Russian shelling of the village of Yakivna in the northern reaches of Mykolaiv Oblast killed 3 civilians and wounded 13 others.

Ukraine reports that 90% of Russian forces have retreated from Mykolaiv Oblast to Kherson Oblast.  Ukrainian counterattacks are continuing.

Ukraine’s government confiscated 21 railcars of Russian fertilizer sitting on a siding in Odesa and will be distributing it to Ukrainian farmers.

Two rockets hit a military base on the outskirts of Dnipro this morning.  Rubble is being cleared in search of possible victims.

The Big Question – In many parts of Ukraine, especially in the vicinity of Kyiv, Russian ground forces are becoming almost a non-entity.  Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reports that west of Kyiv, Russia only has 12,000 troops left, including 7,000 who are either surrounded, or partly surrounded.   East of Kyiv, on the Left Bank of the Dnieper River, Russian forces are being driven back.  In both cases, Kyiv is increasingly out of range from Russian artillery or from Grad rocket batteries.  

The question then becomes – given that Russian ground forces are being increasingly degraded, will Russia resort to the tactic of trying to level Ukrainian cities, as they did in the City of Grozny, in Chechnya, or in Aleppo, Syria?   Well-informed observers think they will.  As we have seen in Kharkiv, Kyiv and several other Ukrainian cities, Russia is making increased use of stand-off weapons, many of which are fired from ships in the Black Sea, or from Russian or Belarusian territory, but many of those are being intercepted by Ukrainian anti-aircraft weapons.   The press usually only covers the missiles that happen to get through.

While being used regularly by the so-called pundits, the Grozny and Aleppo analogies likely don’t apply to Ukraine, for the following reasons:

·        Russia is already using their stand-off weapons against Ukrainian cities with only limited success.

·        Ukraine is getting additional anti-aircraft weapons that can hit Russian bombers flying at high altitude, while at the same time can intercept Russian cruise missiles.   Ukraine already has the “BUK” missile system, used by the Russians in July 2014, to shoot down Malaysian Airlines MH-17 that was flying at above 30,000 feet.

·        As far as I’m aware, neither the Chechens nor the defenders of Aleppo had the ability to shoot back.  As we have seen for the past month, that isn’t true in Ukraine.

Mariupol, reportedly 80% destroyed, is an exception.  Because of its location, near both the Russian border, separatist controlled Donbas, and the Russian controlled Sea of Azov, at the beginning of the war Mariupol was already surrounded on three sides.   

Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv are all close to the Russian border, giving Russia the advantage of relatively short supply lines, and they are more vulnerable to Russian weapons operating within the territories of Russia and Belarus.   No other Ukrainian city has these vulnerabilities, at least to the extent that they exist in Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv.   Even so, Russia has been unable to occupy any of these 3 cities, causing supply problems for Russian forces operating further inside Ukraine.  These cities sit astride the major supply routes.   Supply lines from Russia and Belarus to Russians operating around Kyiv are long, and they are under constant attack.    The same is increasingly true with some cities in the south, including Mykolaiv.

Finally, Grozny and Aleppo were somewhat removed from Western sensibilities, and Western news coverage.  Not so with Kyiv, Lv’iv and Odesa.   The bottom line seems to be that except for Mariupol, Russian ground forces are stymied and, increasingly, is Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine from the air, either with cruise missiles or bombing.   That doesn’t stop the pundits, from rubbing their hands in anticipation, of the prospect of Russian carpet bombing.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

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