Bob Homans March 20 Sitrep

20220331

Ukraine – 3/30 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
March 30, 2022

Former Pres. Poroshenko – Interview With Stuart Varney of Fox Business –

Yesterday, Stuart Varney, a commentator on the Fox Business cable network, did an interview with former President Petro Poroshenko.   During the interview, Poroshenko was standing in the newly liberated City of Irpin, largely destroyed by Russia’s assault.   In the background, there were destroyed buildings in the background, buildings that were once people’s homes.   Varney asked Poroshenko the following question – “What do you think Ukraine will have to give up in return for peace?”  

Poroshenko responded by stating that Ukraine will give up nothing; that Ukraine will win.  Varney replied, somewhat lamely, “I hear you.”   When I listened to Varney’s question I wondered if Varney, had he been living prior to April 18, 1942 with the same job, might’ve asked a similar question to President Roosevelt, such as, “Mr. President, Pearl Harbor has been attacked and a large part of the U.S. Pacific Fleet sunk or damaged, Singapore has fallen, American servicemen have surrendered in Bataan and Corregidor and they are, as we speak, walking to Cabanatuan Prison (on what is now called “the Death March”), so what are you prepared to give up, in return for peace with Japan?  Seattle?  California?   I’m certain that Roosevelt would’ve given the same response as Pres. Poroshenko.   Roosevelt’s real answer came on April 18, 1942, with the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo.

Varney and his ilk are defeatists.   The fact that Ukraine has been able to defeat Russian formations, on the ground and increasingly in the air, doesn’t matter to Varney and his fellow travelers.   I suspect the same is true in some quarters of the U.S. Presidential Administration.  God help us, had any of these individuals been around in April 1942.

My Ukrainian wife was watching this interview with me.  Her response was “the only legitimate negotiating partner with Russia consists of the Ukrainian People and the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”   Perhaps Varney and his ilk should remember this.

3/30 Sitrep –

Today, we’re going to have the benefit of two somewhat different but complementary assessments of the War in Ukraine, including one from a Ukrainian, a former officer in the Soviet Army, a career in private equity mostly in Moscow, and a historian who writes about WW-II.    He raises some serious questions about decisions Zelenskyy made before the war started, and about strategic decisions that are being made, or not made, by the Ukrainian General Staff.   The second, as you are used to is more granular than the first; they complement each other.

The first account starts below (any comments of mine are in bold face and underlined):

Ukraine was invaded by Russia 35 days ago. I have decided to put several thoughts in writing. To be honest, I am not quite sure why I am doing this – probably just to unload my brain.

First about the good things. Ukrainians have demonstrated their willingness and ability to fight. Putin and his generals have completely failed with their Blitzkrieg, have lost their best fighting units and (to a great extent) initiative on the battlefield. Ukrainians have eliminated at least ten thousand Russian soldiers and officers (including six generals and more than twenty colonels) and mountains of their most advanced military hardware. Russians have failed to gain total control of our airspace, to topple our political leadership and to crush the will of the people. The only major city they have managed to take is Kherson in the South. Ukrainian forces still maintain cohesiveness and ability to re-supply and to prepare reserves to continue the fighting. We, as a nation, still have mobile communications, Internet (thank you, Musk), gas, fuel, electricity, and ample food supplies. The only thing the Russians seem to be capable of is levelling our cities and killing thousands of civilians. Ukraine enjoys unprecedented international support (both popular and political) and is receiving significant military help.

Now about the problems. First, I would love to get answers to some questions regarding the pre-war period and the first days of the war. Here they are:

-          Why did Zelenskiy start mobilization of the first wave of reservists just two days before the invasion?

-          A related question: why did he continue to ignore Western intelligence and insist that everything is fine when he already knew that the attack was imminent?           

-          How on Earth did the Russians manage to reach the outskirts of Kyiv (and sometimes penetrated deep into the city) after just 24 hours of fighting? Everybody knew that the Russians had a 30 thousand strong force in Belorussia and still our military did nothing to protect Kyiv from that direction.

-          A related question is why did we let them to cut the Kyiv-L’viv highway – the main artery connecting the capital to the Western border – on the second day of war? This question is also personal as the Russian tanks were near the gates my house (37 km from Kyiv’s center, 500 m from the highway) on the third day of fighting. 

-          How did the Russians manage to break from Crimea into the mainland Ukraine through a 2 km wide stretch of land without suffering catastrophic losses in the first hours of invasion? It was a given to many Ukrainians (including myself) that the giant traffic jam at Perekop would be hit with everything we had and yet they invaded our South practically unopposed.

After 35 days of war, I have some additional questions/concerns.

The main one, of course, is: why the Ukrainian armed forces have not initiated a single major offensive or counter offensive yet?

I have lived and served long enough (and have written enough WWII history books) to understand that you cannot win a war of the kind we are fighting now with just ambushes, harassing night raids and (relatively infrequent) drone strikes. The only way to achieve decisive results is via offensive and counter offensive operations attempted on a sufficient scale (meaning at least five to ten TBGs) with the aim of encircling and eliminating significant enemy forces. Unfortunately, none of the kind has materialized yet.    A Tactical Battle Group (TBG) consists of approximately 800 men, plus equipment.

There could be several reasons why. For example, we might have already suffered losses that cannot be easily replaced. My personal estimate is that we might have lost 5-7 thousand as KIAs and POWs and another 15-21 thousand wounded. This is a lot, but not enough to make our combat units incapable of undertaking significant offensive actions on the most important sections of the front. In addition, the Russians do not have complete control of the skies and we (allegedly) have more tanks now than when the war started – thanks to our opponents who tend to abandon their machines at the first sight of danger or mechanical problem. Besides, every Ukrainian soldier willing to fight is probably worth ten demoralized Russians.

When talking about specific directions, our Armed Forces, for example, could have attempted to encircle and destroy one of the Russian groupings near Kyiv. According to many sources, the one near Irpen-Bucha-Gostomyl is already half-isolated.

We might have tried to relieve the siege of Mariupol. In the process, we could have tried to void most of enemy’s successes achieved so far in this war. Mariupol is one of key strategic targets of Putin, a major industrial center and, because of the steel plants located in Mariupol, one of the most significant hard currency earners for the country. Together with some of our best soldiers (“Azov” regiment and the marines), at least 150,000 civilians remain trapped there. They are facing untold hardships and are dying in their hundreds every day. Relieving Mariupol (which has already gained a status of Ukrainian Stalingrad) would have achieved important strategic objectives and provided a tremendous morale boost for the Armed Forces and the whole nation. 

A relatively easy way to hurt the Russians (and gain significant strategic advantage in the process) could be to attack and subdue Transdniestria -- a Russian enclave in Moldova. An additional bonus there would be vast stores of ammo left from the Soviet times.

Yet another offensive operation that could make sense would be to preventively attack Belorussian forces threatening Western Ukraine. If done properly, it could lead to permanent elimination of this constant threat, facilitate a regime change in Belorussia and cut off the whole Northern grouping of Russian forces from their supply routes – and thus help defeat them near Kyiv.

My impression is that all the (relatively small) successes of recent days are the result of personal initiative shown by medium and lower-level Ukrainian commanders who use every opportunity to take advantage of their enemies’ mistakes. I do not see (yet) any major plan that has been developed and put into action by our General Staff. It looks to me like we refuse to take the initiative that has been lost by the invaders. I am playing a role of an “armchair” strategist here, but the only reason I must do this is the seeming absence of the real strategists.

Another major concern that I have is the ongoing “peace talks” with the Russian Federation. 

First, I do not believe Zelenskiy had a popular mandate to initiate talks with Russia just days after the war began. He should have done his best (or worst) before the bombs started to fall. There is no sense in negotiating with a ruthless and untrustworthy opponent like Russia at gunpoint. Our President’s constant appeals to Putin to meet face-to-face and “solve all remaining problems” are a counterproductive distraction that unnecessarily confuses and demotivates the nation and its Armed Forces. These talks can be successful and bring long-lasting peace only after Russians suffer several catastrophic defeats at the front and have to retreat from Ukraine for good. There is no other way.

So, when I heard yesterday about proposals made by the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul I (and, I am sure, the vast majority of Ukrainians) were deeply concerned.

I believe this is pure treason. Ukrainians, as a nation, have already sacrificed a lot and are prepared to sacrifice even more to win this war. A bad peace would only mean another war in the future, and we all understand it.

For example, my family has already lost at least USD 4.5 ml worth of real estate – namely my house in Berezivka that was once recognized as one of twenty most beautiful residences in Ukraine. Sadly, it has been looted and partially destroyed by the invaders. It is quite possible that we could lose a further USD 1 ml worth of properties in Kyiv and Zhitomir. My wife’s father (a 49-year-old who has two spinal hernias and who last served almost thirty years ago) has been drafted to the Army three weeks ago. He could be sent to the front any day now.

I – a 57-year-old writer with a brain tumor, damaged spine, asthma and a severe blood pressure problem – could also end up fighting. I accept that I might not see my grandkid who will be born this October. My wife’s mother and grandmother are refugees in Poland. None of us knows when we will see our homes again. However, none of us has the slightest inclination to surrender any part of our country’s sovereignty. This includes my 80 years old mother – an ethnic Russian – who to this day flatly refuses to leave Kyiv.

So, who the hell Zelenskiy thinks he is to violate our Constitution and give up on an intent to join NATO that is embedded there?! To allow our worst enemy to block military exercises with our allies? To trade the future of Crimea? Or, broadly speaking, to agree to ANY demand of our mortal foe!

I have had a better opinion of Zelenskiy, but he and his advisors have clearly lost their ways. If he continues along this path, he will lose legitimacy (and power) quite soon.    

For all the reasons given above, Zelenskyy must tread very carefully in the continuing negotiations with Russia.   Any ceding of territory will be unacceptable the Ukrainian People, and I believe that Ukrainians will refute such an agreement, and they will continue to fight regardless of agreements made at the negotiating table.  After the war is over, I believe Zelenskyy will be held to account for decisions he made, before the war started, as described above.

The Second Account:

Yesterday Russia received a Ukrainian peace proposal that offered Russia an opportunity to return to the lines prior to February 24, immediate negotiations to resolve Russian occupation of Donbas, and fifteen years of negotiations to resolve Russia’s annexation of Crimea.  Ukraine offered not to join NATO, not to allow foreign military bases on its territory, but to continue seeking membership in the European Union.

Russia’s response was we will limit military action around Kyiv and Chernihiv, in theory accept that Ukraine can join the European Union and that it will study Ukraine’s proposal.  Russia said it intends to continue attacking Ukraine. 

Nothing changed.  Russia is being pushed back from Kyiv, its forces attacking Kyiv and Chernihiv lost their attack capacities and are retreating to regroup.  Russia continues to act as if Ukraine requires Russian consent for western integration.  Russian military attacks with what it can muster across Ukraine, including Kyiv and Chernihiv. 

Russia’s invasion has no momentum, is losing to Ukrainian forces, is focused on reducing civil resistance through terror and is preparing to send more ground forces than in the initial invasion to regain lost momentum.  Russia’s goal remains complete control of Ukraine.

The above does not provide detail on the peace proposal and its reception.  Simplifies the military position on the ground.  Or reviews the significant changes in actions and perceptions in the rest of the world regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Two of yesterdays’ outcomes that bring the larger picture in focus are reactions in Germany and Ukraine.  Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany revealed that the German government was reluctant to provide military assistance to Ukraine at the beginning of the invasion because the German government believed the war would be over in hours.  I believe that the same was true of the Biden Administration, where in their opinion 8 years of training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces would make no difference in the outcome of a war with Russia.   Therefore, why give Ukraine all the assistance it wanted when Ukraine will surrender in 2 – 3 days?

President Zelensky, whose push for a negotiated peace, is the one constant of his political stance before and after his election, said that resolving the conflict depends on Ukraine’s military and the will of the people.

As perception clears attitude hardens.

Great Britain declared yesterday at the United Nations it is ready to guarantee peace and territorial integrity of Ukraine.  The British government appealed to Parliament for lethal weapons assistance for Ukraine.

Germany’s minister of foreign affairs admitted yesterday that today they are paying the price for ignoring since 2014 Russia’s use of energy resources as a foreign policy tool.  Yesterday, Russia stopped natural gas exports to Germany through the pipeline passing through Poland.

Canada voted to give Ukrainian’s visa free entry.

The California National Guard, a long-term collaborator with Ukraine’s military, may soon be authorized by the US congress to increase the range of assistance it currently provides.

The Belarus government yesterday banned the export of a range of traditional foods including to Russia.  It appears they expect the situation to get worse with the halt of Ukrainian food imports.

NATIONAL

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said that it has information that conscripts of 26th Russian tank Regiment, and 47th Russian tank division who signed army service contracts on the eve of the invasion are asking to be relieved of duty to go home.

Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate - Ukrainian parliamentary deputies have prepared a draft law banning Russian religious organizations in Ukraine.  The Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, is facing a massive exit of parishes from its ranks, is the largest confession in Ukraine.  Russian Orthodox Laity in Ukraine may solve the issue without the help of parliament.  

I believe that Ukraine should take one additional step – freezing all bank accounts belonging to the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, that exist in Ukraine.   There are three important issues here:

·        The Head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate in Ukraine has stated his sympathies for the invasion, making the Moscow Patriarchate a 5th Columnist in Ukraine.

·        In 2014/2015, the Moscow Patriarchate allowed their churches in Donbass to serve as sanctuaries, and even magazines for storage of weapons and ammunition, for Russian troops and the separatists.

·        The accounts may be part of a network that is allowing Patriarch Kirill to launder money belonging to Putin and his associates.

Black Sea Blockade - Russia is currently preventing more than a hundred commercial vessels from entering Ukrainian Black Sea ports.  Most are bulk agricultural commodity carriers.  Russian actions are creating artificial food shortages in several Middle East and North African countries.

Mines in the Black Sea - Sea mines being discovered in the Black Sea have been traced to mines that Russia gained through the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

National Bank of Ukraine - The National Bank of Ukraine, which has been gathering donations for Ukraine’s army, transferred today 13 billion Hryvnia to the army, or approximately 420 million USD.

Loss of Steel Manufacturing Capacity - Ukraine’s government announced that the country has lost 30% of its steelmaking capacity as a result of the war, including 2 factories in Mariupol.  Reconstruction has begun at some of the damaged factories.

Cyber Attack on Russia - Russia’s air regulatory agency is going back to paper after its electronic records were wiped out in a hack by anonymous last night.

Property Confiscation - Ukraine’s parliament is reviewing a law which would allow for property confiscation from individuals and organizations that deny the war with Russia or place the blame on Ukraine for starting the war.  If adopted, then the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, in Ukraine would disappear.

REGIONAL

Kyiv was quiet but fighting continues nearby in Hostomel, Bucha, Makarivka, Irpin and along the highway to Zhytomir as Ukrainian forces keep advancing.

Contrary to the Russian announcement that they would lower the level of attacks in Chernihiv the city was and remains under sporadic shelling.  Evacuations out are not allowed and humanitarian aid is not permitted.  The mayor said that approximately 400 have been killed and about 30 are wounded daily.

Russian forces staged the destruction of an armored Russian personnel carrier near the border crossing Ryzhivka, Sumy Oblast.  In retaliation, and on camera, Russian soldiers mined and blew up the Ukrainian immigration and customs post there. 

An Izium city councilor from the now banned pro-Russian party Opposition Party for the Right to Life guided the invading Russian forces through an undefended back road into the city on March 26.  Ukrainian forces are currently cleaning the city, in Kharkiv Oblast, of invaders.  Treason charges have been laid on the councilor who has gone into hiding.

Russia launched 180 ballistic rocket attacks against civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast in the last 24 hours.  In addition artillery and mine shelling continues.  Hardest hit were Saltivka, Oleksiivka, Kholodni Khory, Chuhuev and Derhachiv.  The target as usual was civilian infrastructure.  There has been relative quiet in the city of Kharkiv.

Shelling of Severodonetsk, Rubizno, Popasne, Kremine and Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast continued.  The shelling of Lysychansk was the heaviest destroying 6 apartment buildings.  Exact number of casualties is still being determined.  In the other cities shelling was less intense although in most the consequences were house and building fires that are being extinguished.

Shelling of Avdiivka, Mariinka and Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast continues. 

Russian forces made four unsuccessful sorties yesterday to break through Ukrainian defenses.   The Ukrainian defenses around the parts of Donbas that Russia and their proxies have occupied for the last 8+ years consist of 3 concentric rings, that are likely impossible to penetrate by an attack from inside occupied Donbas. 

The only answer for Russia is likely a pincer movement, coming up from Mariupol and down from Izium, in Kharkiv Oblast.   This will not happen, as long as Ukraine continues to hold Mariupol, and thereby tie down a large number of Russian troops.   The possible pincer movement also explains why there is so much fighting around Izium.   However, even if Russia succeeds in subduing both Mariupol and Izium, it is likely that they don’t have enough troops to complete an effective encirclement of that size, consisting of an area that isn’t that much smaller than the encirclement of Kyiv completed by Germans in 1941.

Russian forces have concentrated shelling in Mariupol on the former offices of the Red Cross in that city.  No civilians were allowed to evacuate and no food aid was allowed to enter the city.  President Macron spoke with Putin on the subject of civilian evacuation from Mariupol but Putting replied that everyone left in Mariupol was a Nazi and must be destroyed.

Staff and patients of Mariupol’s destroyed maternity hospital have all been forcibly deported to Russia. 

Ukraine’s ministry of defense said that Russian forces are starting to lay land mines to fortify their forward positions in Zaporizhia Oblast.  Russians are starting to dig trenches for their artillery and have begun active shelling of advancing Ukrainian forces in Stepnohirsk, Orikhove, Gulaipole, Novokarlivka and Luhivske, Zaporzhia Oblast.  Russia may have started attempting to demarcate lines for freezing the conflict.

Russians arrested a Ukrainian journalist in Zaporizhia oblast and sent her to Donetsk for a criminal investigation.  In neighboring Kherson another elected mayor has been abducted.  His whereabouts remain unknown.

Fighting continues in Kakhovka and Beryslav counties in Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian forces continue their advance.

Russian forces in Kherson have begun systemic house to house searches that include property confiscation, especially automobiles.  In normal circumstances this is break and enter.

Yesterday’s rocket attack on the administrative building of Mykolaiv Oblast has following efforts to remove rubble revealed twelve killed and eleven injured.

On March 29th a Russian rocket hit a military airbase at Starokonstantinivka in Khmelnytsky Oblast, and on the 30th there were three rocket attacks and aimed at industrial objectives in the Oblast.  There have been no casualty reports.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

**Reporting of destroyed Drones only includes attack drones and not surveillance drones

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

https://play.tavr.media/radiobayraktar/