Ukraine – 3/20/23 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
March 20, 2023
“What Xi Really Wants in Moscow?” by Timothy Ash
Ash’s latest Substack blog is spot on, and very similar to we said in last Friday’s email. Xi wants to call an end to the war in Ukraine, in a way that leaves Putin in power.
Ash thinks that the major barrier to Xi achieving his objective is not Putin, weakened as he is, but Ukraine. As Ash states, “Indeed, having done little to engage with Ukraine over the period since independence, Chinese officials simply don’t understand Ukraine, or don’t really want to. And that’s a problem when it comes to forcing a peace on Ukraine, as if China does not understand the Ukrainian perspective, how can it figure out a solution which is also amenable to Kyiv?”
In a separate blog, Ash states that Ukraine will not agree to any arrangement that leaves Russian troops on Ukrainian territory, something that Ash thinks that the Chinese currently don’t understand. In the next few days, Xi will have the opportunity to hear this directly from Pres. Zelenskyy.
News From the Battlefield
The latest “Reporting From Ukraine” covers the use by the Ukrainian Army of the “Remote Anti-Armor Mine System” (RAAMS) against another failed Russian attack against Vuhledar. RAAMS consists of a 155 mm projectile that contains a number of anti-armor mines. The projectile is shot from a howitzer and scatters anti-armor mines at a distance of up to 17km from where it was fired. This is the first time that I’m aware of that the RAAMS has been used in combat. The results of the use of the RAAMS can be seen in the video.
Reporting From Ukraine also mentions that because of the destruction of Russian troop concentrations near Vuhledar, and losses from previous Russian attacks, that in order to fill their ranks, Russians are using soldiers wounded in previous attacks. There had also been previous reports of Russian soldiers refusing to fight, when ordered to launch new attacks against Vuhledar.
The ”Latest Denys” covers recent developments around Bakhmut. From the tactical map he uses, he shows how the Wagners fighting inside Bakhmut are increasingly backed up by regular Russian Forces.
3/20/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon March 19 to 12:00 noon March 20, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Monday March 20
06:43: Eu Foreign Ministers plan to sign a plan to supply ammunition to Ukraine on Monday, - Jozwiak.
· According to Radio Liberty correspondent Rikard Jozwiak, this decision was facilitated by Estonia's impressive diplomatic work.
Sunday March 19
21:35: Serbia will not sign an agreement to normalize relations with Kosovo, which it previously agreed to.
· This was reported by Reuters with reference to the statement of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
· "I do not want to sign any international legally binding documents with Kosovo because Serbia does not recognize its independence," Vučić said.
20:46 Europa Libera - Moldovan Foreign Minister: The Moldovan government plans to impose sanctions on 25 individuals involved in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
· "We are talking mainly about a ban on entering Moldova, blocking bank accounts or assets of those persons who are somehow involved in the aggression against Ukraine," Popescu said.
17:18 Estonian Defense Minister: The Russian army has not changed in 100 years.
· "The Russian army is less powerful than predicted because of their World War II mentality," Pevkur said.
· The Minister also said that Estonia had trained 600 Ukrainian infantrymen.
13:31 Telegraph: Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to release "sensational" evidence showing his innocence in a party case during the coronavirus pandemic.
· The interlocutors of the publication emphasize that the evidence of the innocence of the British ex-prime minister is a message from his advisers.
· "The fact is that he told Parliament what he believed to be true at the time. There is documentary evidence that will show that he was advised to say what he said," the publication writes.
12:57 British Air Force Press office: On March 17, fighters from the British and German Air Forces climbed towards a group of Russian VKS aircraft approaching the borders of Estonian airspace.
· It is reported that two Eurofighter Typhoons accompanied the Russian Tu-134, which was flying along with an An-12 transporter and two Su-27 fighters.
NATIONAL
Monday March 20
11:57 Ukrenergo: In the Zhytomyr region, due to significant damage to networks, because of repeated attacks by Russians, consumption restrictions are applied.
· Also, with a significant increase in consumption, restrictions are possible in the Kiev region and Kiev.
· There are no restrictions in other regions.
10:44: The SBI has preliminarily established the circumstances regarding the death of 4 servicemen of a military unit in the Chernihiv region
· "During regular shooting in a military unit in the Chernihiv region, a shell detonated. Four soldiers were killed in the blast."
10:29 a.m. The Times: My best pilots are dying while we wait for the F-16, says Ukrainian Air Force Commander General Golubtsov.
· According to him, Ukrainian pilots need less than six months of training to prepare for flights on the F-16, although NATO believes that it will take years to fully train.
07:30 General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· The Russian military launched 6 missile and 13 air strikes, carried out 56 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on civilian infrastructure in Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. There are civilians killed and wounded, civilian infrastructure has been damaged.
· In the Kherson region, Russians threaten civilians with punitive actions for not having a Russian passport.
· At checkpoints of the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, Russians threaten the local population with illegal imprisonment and violent actions in the absence of Russian passports during the subsequent verification of documents.
· Over the past day, the Aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck three anti-aircraft missile systems "Buk-M1-2", 7 strikes - on the areas of concentration of Russian personnel and destroyed the ammunition depot of the Russian Federation, -.
· At the same time, Ukrainian defenders destroyed a Russian UAV of the "Zala" type.
· Units of rocket troops and artillery hit the Russian anti-aircraft missile system "Tor", 3 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation and 3 means of electronic warfare.
00:16: The "Offensive Guards" units are almost fully formed, and there are many women among those who wish. This was announced on the air of the national telethon by the press officer of the Chervona Kalyna brigade Mykola Koval
· "Different people, of different ages and genders, both women and men – young and a little older – are enrolled in the ranks of the Offensive Guard. That is, come those who have experience and those who do not have it. Women on a par with men are selected and trained because we have gender equality. And they themselves want it to be on a par with men. And they choose the toughest positions. That is, they do not choose a cook or a signalman. They choose a machine gunner, an artilleryman, they want to go to the infantry. Now at this stage, they are undergoing training," Koval added.
Sunday March 19
23:35: A video has surfaced online of an International Legion fighter taking a Russian soldier prisoner.
· The subtitles indicate that the legionnaire could have shot the Russian, as the invaders do with the prisoners, but did not do so because he was fighting professionally. And every Russian prisoner is an opportunity to return home for one of the Ukrainian captured soldiers.
22:17: In the 169th training center "Desna" named after Prince Yaroslav the Wise, Chernihiv region, an emergency occurred yesterday, four servicemen were killed. What exactly happened is unknown, the training center writes that the SBI is conducting an internal investigation.
20:06 Defence Intelligence of Ukraine: Putin is becoming increasingly toxic to both the world and Russia.
· "And within the Kremlin, there is growing dissatisfaction with what is happening. There is an increasingly gloomy awareness of the prospects, namely, the geopolitical catastrophe of the Putin regime.
· And so we are talking about finding a successor and putin is no longer looking for him," Yusov said.
19:31: Church of the Moscow Patriarchate says its eviction from Lavra "provokes Russians"
· The Department of External Church Relations of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate published a comment in connection with the appeal of the Primate of the OCU Metropolitan Epiphany to the monks of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. The statement was published on the website of the UOC (MP).
· "In fact, on the shoulders of the monks of the monastery of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the head of the OCU wants to enter the Lavra and take advantage of their many years of work, assigning them to his structure," the Church of the Moscow Patriarchate believes.
18:38 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on March 19:
· "During the day, the enemy inflicted 1 missile and 7 air strikes, carried out 9 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.
· The Russian army also shelled civilian infrastructure in the Donetsk region.
· There are dead and injured, high-rise buildings, private residential buildings and schools damaged."
· "In the settlement of Azov, the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhia region, the counterintelligence regime has been strengthened.
· During it, Russians actively check the local population for a Russian passport.
· Citizens who do not have it are forced to put up with additional checks that are accompanied by detention."
· "The Russian occupiers continue to commit looting, taking away housing from civilians of Ukraine.
· In the settlement of Strilkove of the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, based on forcibly collected signatures of local deputies, an order is being developed for the forced illegal alienation of houses of Ukrainian citizens who were forced to leave the settlement.
· They want to transfer housing for living to servicemen of the Russian occupation army."
· "During the day, units of the missile forces and artillery hit the enemy anti-aircraft missile system "Thor" and 2 areas of concentration of the occupiers.
· The aviation of the Defense Forces struck the Russian anti-aircraft missile system (the type is being specified), 6 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers, the ammunition depot.
16:57: Famous Welsh actor and singer Luke Evans, who became famous for the film "Dracula", recorded an address to the Ukrainian people.
· The video was published on the Telegram channel of the United24 platform.
16:26 Deputy Minister of Defense: During the week, the Ukrainian military liquidated 5820 Russian soldiers.
· Also, during March 13-19, the Armed Forces of Ukraine "landed" 1 aircraft and a helicopter, and destroyed 66 enemy tanks, 81 artillery systems, 84 ACVs and 51 drones.
15:45: Monks of the Moscow Patriarchate received instructions in case of forced eviction from the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, the media said.
· In particular, the authors of the leaflets refer to Article 47 of the Constitution of Ukraine and the right of every citizen to housing. As well as the possibility of eviction of persons registered at the place of residence only by a court decision.
· It is noted that if the residents of the monastery are trying to be evicted or not allowed into the territory of residence, according to the instructions, they should call the police, call the Prosecutor General's Office, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Culture, the Office of the President, as well as the SBI, if "illegal actions" are committed by police officers. Also invite journalists and simultaneously film everything that happens.
15:23 Ministry of Defense report: Military levy will not be applied to the income of servicemen for the period of their direct participation in hostilities.
· The ministry explained that according to the amendments introduced by the government to the Law of Ukraine No. 1161 on March 17, direct participants in deterring Russia's armed aggression receive benefits.
Mordor - russia
Monday March 20
11:19: The first photo of the Chinese head in Russia appeared on the network.
11:08: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Moscow.
· According to the Flightradar24 service, the plane landed at Vnukovo Airport.
09:12 Reuters: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the country should be prepared to use nuclear weapons at any time to prevent war.
· On March 18-19, the DPRK's Armed Forces conducted exercises to improve their tactical nuclear potential.
08:50 Institute for the Study of War: The Armed Forces conducted a successful counterattack west of Bakhmut and rejected the Russians near the highway near the village of Ivanovskoye.
· In general, ISW believes that the so-called major spring offensive of the Russian Federation in eastern Ukraine reaches its climax and does not give the desired effect even despite the use of about 300 thousand manpower. Analysts believe that the general depletion of Russian forces gives Ukrainians the opportunity to launch their own counteroffensive in critical areas of the front in the near future.
00:36: In the video of Putin's conversation with local residents of Mariupol at the 19th second, a resident is heard shouting, who was not allowed to talk with Putin: "This is all not true! It's on display!".
· This footage did not get on television. The TASS news agency, which also filmed the event, cut out the moment with a scream.
Sunday March 19
19:27: In a car blown up in the Kherson region, there was a collaborator Serhii Moskalenko, journalist Andriy Tsaplienko said.
· "Initially, he compiled lists for the Russian Armed Forces, which included Ukrainian activists, police, ATO veterans.
· Later he received a position in the Nova Kakhovka "police station". There he set up a torture chamber," Tsaplienko wrote.
14:58: The Russian Defense Ministry said that flights of Russian military aircraft to the Kaliningrad region and back "were carried out over neutral waters in strict accordance with international rules for the use of airspace."
13:54: Russian special services are trying to gain access to the computers of Ukrainians – State Special Communication Service.
· It is noted that hackers trojanize ISO and installation files and place them in free access on torrent trackers.
· If a user downloads and installs such files on their computer, hackers gain access to its contents and may remain invisible for a long time.
13:11 Air Force and Media Zone: Since the beginning of 2023, at least 1000 Russian prisoners have died in the war against Ukraine, a joint investigation.
· According to the publications, only from March 1 to March 16, the losses of the Russian Federation amount to more than 400 convicts. Most were killed in the battles for Bakhmut. This is evidenced by data from obituaries studied by journalists.
· In total, 1304 Russians died in the battles on the territory of Ukraine in the first two weeks of March.
12:11 Institute for the Study of War: Prigozhin loses ties with Russian officials in the regions.
· In particular, according to Prigozhin, the authorities of the Goryachy Klyuch in the Krasnodar Territory refused to bury mercenaries in the city. Mayor Sergey Belopolsky said locals did not consider the resort of Goryachiy Klyuch "an appropriate place for the burial of Wagner's fighters."
· Prigozhin also released a telephone conversation in which Belopolsky told a representative of the PMC that the governor of the Krasnodar Territory, Veniamin Kondratiev, had deprived him of the authority to cooperate with Wagner.
KHARKIV
Monday March 20
11:52 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kupyansk district of the Kharkiv region.
09:36 Kharkiv RMA: Last day, Vovchansk, Kupyansk, Biennial, Staritsa, Berestovo and other cities and villages of Kharkiv region were under fire from Russians, -
· The Russians carried out more than 10 mortar strikes on the villages of Oleksandrivka and the village of Tymofiyivka, Bohodukhiv district. At least 5 private residential buildings were damaged there.
· At 11:00, the city of Kupyansk was under attack. In the evening, after 20:00, Russian troops beat on the city of Vovchansk. No casualties.
Sunday March 19
13:48 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kupyansk district of the Kharkiv region.
DONETSK
Monday March 20
10:09 Donetsk RMA: In the middle of the night, the Russians launched a missile strike on Kramatorsk — there are damaged houses, according to preliminary information, without casualties,
· Russian troops shelled Bogoyavlenka, Mariinsky territorial gromadas, Avdiivka, Kurakhivska, Ocheretynska, Chasovoyarska, Soledarska, Siverska, and Limanska communities.
· 1 person was wounded in Kostiantynivka, 3 high-rise buildings and 3 private houses were damaged in the city. It is known about 1 wounded and 3 damaged high-rise buildings in Bakhmut.
Sunday March 19
23:15 Social Netowrks: Explosions are heard in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region.
14:36: Footage of yesterday's shelling of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk region was published on local social networks.
· The shelling killed one person and wounded five others. 20 private houses, a high-rise building, a school and a shop were damaged.
14:15 Operational Command East: The Russians have already failed the operation to capture Bakhmut.
· According to the spokesman, today's actions of Russians in the Bakhmut area can hardly be called a major strategic offensive operation.
· "Now, in fact, they cannot tactically complete the operation to seize the Ukrainian district center of Bakhmut.
12:26 Operational Command Tavria: Near Vuhledar, the Russian offensive slowed down.
· "The enemy continues to take active actions, storm Avdiivka and Marinka. For them, Avdiivka is strategically important at the moment in order to start some kind of assault operations in the Vuhledar area, where the enemy burned more than once. It is critically necessary to surround Avdiivka, which the enemy is trying to do for two weeks," the representative of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said.
ZAPORIZHIA
Sunday March 19
16:36 Zaporizhia RMA: Russians shelled a residential building in Kamenskoye, Zaporizhia region.
· The occupiers shelled the village from Grad rockets, killing three people and injuring two others.
DNIPRO
Sunday March 19
20:26 Dnipro RMA: Russians shelled Sinelnikovsky district today.
· "Emergency workers are surveying the area. Find out the consequences of the attack. But the main thing is that people are whole.
· In Novomoskovsk, the consequences of UAV strikes were eliminated for two days. The work has been completed," Lysak wrote.
KHERSON
Monday March 20
11:35 AM Kherson RMA: In the Kherson region, a man blew up on a Russian mine
· This happened in the morning near the village of Mala Oleksandrivka. A 35-year-old man came across enemy explosives in the woods.
· The victim was seriously injured - he lost his left lower leg. Doctors are currently operating on him.
10:28 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Oleshky, Kherson region.
Sunday March 19
16:02: In the temporarily occupied Skadovsk, Kherson region, a platoon commander of the Russian patrol service was blown up.
· The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation published a video of the burning car and reported that a patrol officer died on the spot. His wife and daughter were injured.
15:40 Kherson RMA: Russians hit Belozerka in the Kherson region with artillery.
· "The invaders purposefully attacked a residential building. From under the rubble of her own home, she managed to get a woman. The victim was hospitalized," the report said.
12:30 Social Networks: Explosions heard again in Kherson
MYKOLAIV
Sunday March 19
23:10: In the Bashtansky district of the Mykolaiv region, on March 19, a tractor blew up on an unknown object. In the cab were a tractor driver and a deputy of the Nikolaev regional council Yuri Kormyshkin.
· "It's not far from Snihurivka. Yuri was on the field with people. We drove with the tractor driver. Both are alive, but in the hospital," said Nadiya Ivanova, head of the commission on agricultural policy of the Mykolaiv Regional Council.
KYIV
Sunday March 19
22:40: Kyiv City Council became the leader in the number of deputies defending Ukraine at the front.
· In the Kyiv City Council, out of 120 deputies, there are 27 - 7 (Armed Forces of Ukraine), 8 (Territorial Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), 12 (DFTG).
SUMY
Monday March 20
11:00 Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, the Russians shelled 2 territorial communities of the Sumy region.
· Mid-Buda community: last night there was shelling from barreled artillery (6 arrivals). Velykopysarivska community: this morning the Russians fired from the AGS (6 shots).
· No loss or damage.
Sunday March 19
17:38 Operational Command North: As of 5:00, Russians were once again shelling the border of Chernihiv and Sumy regions.
· The Russian army shelled settlements with self-propelled guns and mortars.
· There was no information about losses among the local population or damage to civilian infrastructure.
12:41 Operational Command North: As of 12:00 on March 19, enemy forces fired three times at the border area of Sumy region.
· There were 8 congregations in the Seredina-Buda township area, 6 wards in the Starikove township area, and 5 wards in the Studenok area.
· There are no losses among personnel and equipment. There was no information about losses among the local population or damage to civilian infrastructure.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka