Bob Homans March 19

20220319

Bob's source in normal font; Bob's comments in bold.

Ukraine – 3/19 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
March 19, 2022

The Role of Russia’s State Security Service (FSB) –

This morning, there was a report that the Head of the FSB’s Ukraine Division was placed under house arrest in Moscow.  It is possible that the reason for his detention was for providing faulty information to Putin and top Russian military and defense officials, about how the FSB had thoroughly infiltrated Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) and, because of the FSB’s infiltration, that Ukraine would fall into Russia’s hands as soon as the Russian Army arrived in Kyiv.

Based on the FSB completely missing the start of Euromaidan in December 2013, Putin should have known to treat the assessment he was given in late 2021 and early 2022 with skepticism.   Here is what I wrote in the Summer of 2016, about the infiltration of the FSB into the SBU, prior to the start of Euromaidan.

“Control of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) – During Yanukovich’s Presidency the Russian State Security Service was given substantial influence, or even control, over the SBU.    

In January 2013 Viktor Yanukovich appointed Oleksandr Yakymenko as Head of the SBU.   Since 2010 Yakymenko had been the Head of SBU Offices in Sevastopol, Crimea and Donetsk.    Previously he had worked in Security at System Capital Management, owned by Rinat Akhmetov Yanukovich’s major financial patron.   Yakymenko had served in the Russian Army until 1998.     There is no evidence that Yakymenko had ever become a Ukrainian citizen.     Soon after Yanukovich’s departure Yakyemnko fled to Russia along with several other senior SBU officials.[1]     Yakymenko’s career trajectory in the SBU appears to be yet example of Yanukovich placing a trusted member of “the Family” in Ukraine’s top security post.

Yakymenko was supplemented by the placement of FSB operatives in almost every department in the SBU.   In the Spring of 2014, during the invasion of Crimea and Donbas, the United States and NATO declined to provide Ukraine with any actionable intelligence to either Ukraine’s Armed Forces or the SBU on the placement of Russian forces.  The reason was that the United States and NATO believed that the information would go directly to Russia, via placement of FSB agents in the SBU, and that providing such information would only reveal U.S. sources and methods.”

Having been an abject failure in 2013, in providing Russia with advanced information about Euromaidan Putin, once again, relied on information about Ukraine supplied to him by the FSB in 2021 and 2022.   In all fairness to the FSB, and despite the accusations by Russia that Euromaidan was a coup organized by the United States, I doubt that the United States had any advance information about the start of Euromaidan.

Gutting of Ukraine’s Armed Forces –

The Armed Forces of Ukraine that we are seeing today is only 8 years old.   It is the product of significant reforms initiated by Ukrainians, training and material support by NATO and individual NATO member states and, over the past 8 years, extensive battlefield experience gained fighting the Russians and their proxies in Donbas.   Here is what I wrote in the Summer of 2016, about Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

“Gutting of Ukraine’s Armed Forces - Ukraine’s military assets were a significant source of revenue for Yanukovich and his Family.    In early 2014, during the height of the Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine sold 3 of its MIG-29’s to the African Country of Chad.[2]  The price was not disclosed, nor was the use of the proceeds or their destination.    Perhaps those MIG-29’s would have come in handy, during the spring and summer of 2014 when Ukrainian troops were retaking large sections of Donbas from Russian proxies (as they would be today).   By the time of Yanukovich’s departure in February 2014, almost all of Ukraine’s military hardware was gone, particularly surprising for a Country with the World’s 9th largest arms industry.     

Two of the 3 Ministers of Defense under Yanukovich, Mykhailo Yezhel, who was Minister from March 2010 until February 2012, and Pavlo Lebedyev, who served from December 2012 until February 2014, have fled to Russia and are wanted by Ukraine for illegally selling arms belonging to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.    Dmytro Salamatin, who served as Defense Minister between February and December 2012, had previously held jobs in 2 of Ukraine largest arms exporters.

In January 2005 Ukraine had the 4th largest non-US military contingent serving in Iraq, 1,650 soldiers.[3]   Ten years later the same time Ukraine only had 6,000 combat ready soldiers in its entire Armed Forces, able to face the Russian invasion of Crimea.   During Yanukovich’s Presidency draft records were destroyed, making it hard for the successor government to call up soldiers.[4]

At some point before Yanukovich departed, the draft records for thousands of young Ukrainians were either destroyed or stolen.    Without the draft records, there was no way for Ukraine to implement a call-up.    Defense Ministry officials were left to scour restaurants looking for waiters who, perhaps, hadn’t registered.”

When considering one of Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire, that Ukraine should substantially downsize its armed forces, It is important to remember some history.

3/19 Sitrep -

These daily bulletins cover events that occur from noon of the day prior to the bulletin to noon of the day the bulletin is released.   As usual, in this Section any comments by me are in bold face.

The map above demonstrates the routes taken by Russian columns.  Cities, towns, and villages on these routes are what Russia has taken.  The area between these routes remains under local Ukrainian control, is a staging ground for counter attacks and ambushes, and most of the cities, towns, villages on the routes remain under local Ukrainian municipal control.

Russia’s destructive capacity off these routes depends on artillery, rocket, missile, bombing and fifth columns of saboteurs.  Russian longer range destructive capacity is highly dependent on its fifth column saboteurs whose primary goal, other than misinformation is to provide targeting coordinates.  For example, Kyiv’s territorial defense commander, Hruzevich, reported yesterday that since the beginning of the invasion they have eliminated 37 groups of Russian fifth column fighters, and slightly more than 100 individuals in Kyiv over the past week alone.   As mentioned in a previous report, in a village near Bela Tserkva, about 70 mi. south of Kyiv, 3 teenage girls were arrested for putting targeting marks on sites for use by Russian  aircraft.

Most of the diversionary groups are led by a Russian national but the bulk of their members are Ukrainian citizens.  The Ukrainian’s primary motivation is to make money, as interviews and their history indicate they are apolitical.  Russia has not been able to recruit higher level traitors to run local governments except for Melitopol in Kherson oblast, and a few villages in Kharkiv oblast.  The new Russian mayor of Melitopol has yet to show up for work, while the elected mayor, after six days in Russian custody, and after being exchanged for 10 POWs returned to work yesterday.

Lacking local support or bases Russian invaders must rely on their own resources and whatever they can loot.  Opportunities for looting commercial establishments disappear as soon as the Russians occupy roads.  This does not prevent them for looting homes, shooting, and raping.  Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman, Ms. Denisova, reported yesterday that more than ten cases of rape occured over the course of this week.  Since the start of the invasion cases of Russian soldiers looting homes and shooting unarmed civilians on the streets are in the hundreds.

The map and reliance on people to target objectives further demonstrates a broad range of Russian deficiencies.  As is Russia must maintain 66 supply routes from its bases in occupied Crimea, Donbas, Belarus, and Russia.  On average each supply route is 40 kilometers.  The Russians have no protective forces to guard supply trucks on these routes nor does their advance force return to protect supplies.  These easy targets are being continuously destroyed and the Ukrainian forces are actively reequipping by salvaging munitions and food. 

Sending unarmored trucks through hostile territory without ground support is stupid.  The resupply convoys lack air support because this requires low altitude air cover exposing planes or helicopters to light low altitude surface to air missiles like stingers.  The same is true for Russian attack columns.  They go forward without air support because it is too dangerous for air support. 

Resupply convoys and attack columns also lack air support because the Russian invasion is centralized.  The ground invasion consists of 150 – 160 tactical battle groups.  Each of these groups has a command center which reports to a front command, and the front commands reports to Moscow.  The air force also is broken down into attack groups that report to Moscow.  For a supply convoy to receive air cover coordination needs to occur in Moscow since at the field air and ground are separate.  Actual coordination at the highest level is difficult even if there was one column, but in Ukraine there are sixty-six.

Reliance on fifth column targeting means that Russia’s military lack accurate satellite targeting ability and its air force lacks the ability to produce high altitude imagery for targeting.  Surveillance drone images are for each group and are not shared in the field.  They most definitely are not shared with the air command until they get to Moscow. 

Russia is limited to staying on the road or hiding in forests in Northern Ukraine because the ground is too soft for Russian equipment to move in columns over fields.  When this was attempted at the start of the invasion by the time the fourth or fifth machine in a column hit a soft spot it would strand on mound between the trenches created by the vehicles ahead of it.

Last, frontline command centers are in these strung-out columns and are easy to identify because they consist of a cluster of electronic counter measure units, air defense units, and a communication unit with a commander.  These command centers are no more or less exposed than any other units in the column.  This makes them the primary attack target since destruction of the command center paralyzes the entire column.  Isolated units in paralyzed columns are being destroyed at will by Ukrainian light attack platoons of 10 to twenty soldiers. 

Destroying a command communication unit/commander requires getting close enough to fire a handheld anti-tank rocket.  Over forty have been destroyed to date demonstrating Ukrainian forces courage and tactical superiority.  Russia’s superiority in military things is losing to Ukraine’s superiority in tactics and people.

General Information - Ukraine State Investigative Committee indicated that seven Rolls Royce cars had been seized since the start of the invasion.  Two belong to Viktor Medvedchuk.  This is in addition to Medvedchuk’s yacht, seized in Croatia, and his beautifully appointed private railcar.  Putin is the Godfather to Medvedchuk’s daughter.

The Ukrainian Non-Governmental Organization, Nuremburg Tribunal 2022, press release stated that Russian forces have destroyed 400 schools and kindergartens, 117 hospitals, 5 natal centers and 28 religious’ buildings. 

Russia’s chief negotiator with Ukraine said after yesterday’s round of talks that the people of Donbas should decide what government they want.  The question remains whether they will do with Russian military on the streets, who will count the votes etc.  Ukraine’s negotiator said the talks are dragging.

Ukraine announced that yesterday POW prisons began operating.

Russia claims it has started using hypersonic missiles against Ukraine.  Reports from Russia are that its missile and munitions factories have been placed on 24/7 operational basis as munition stores are seriously depleted.   This is a partial explanation of why Russia is increasingly relying on stand-off bombing and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, either from strategic bombers flying over the territory of Russia and Belarus, or ships operating in the Black Sea. In neither case does Russia have to rely on moving supplies overland, where they’re being subject to Ukrainian attacks.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense believes that Russia will shortly announce a total national mobilization.  Hezbollah which is one of the sources from which Russia planned to recruit soldiers announced yesterday that it is not taking part in the Russian invasion and that its forces will not be sent to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense `announced that it had liquidated Russian Lieutenant General Andrii Mordichev.  This is the sixth Russian General liquidated since they invaded Ukraine. 

The Pentagon estimates that Russia has fired 1080 rockets and cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets.

Ukrainian forces are starting to bomb Russian forces with leaflets giving instructions on how to surrender.

Kyiv city damages from the start of the invasion include 36 apartment buildings, 5 private homes, 6 schools and 4 kindergartens.  Windows, balconies, and facades have been damaged in another 55 apartment buildings, and 22 killed of which 60 are civilians and amongst the civilians four children.  

Based solely on numbers, Russia has a long way to go if they want to intimidate Ukrainians, through the targeting of civilian sites.   Unless one happens to be in one of the destroyed buildings, the number of destroyed buildings is relatively small.   The complex in which our place is located consists of, perhaps, 20 buildings, and this is just one small neighborhood of Kyiv.   That said, one of the destroyed buildings is 3 bus stops away from our building.  

Russian forces are starting to dig defensive trenches at Hostomel and Borodianka which indicates they have no more attack capacity.

Ukrainian counterattacks near Chernihiv led to the destruction of two batteries of Artillery.  Russian forces have not undertaken ground attacks on Chernihiv but continue shelling.

Ukraine Ministry of Defense briefing yesterday indicated that Russian forces attempting to attack Kyiv on the right bank of the Dnipro, which is on the side to Zhytomir, were forced to retreat 70 kilometers from their target.

Russia sent a tactical battle group of senior class military cadets into the battle to take Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast.  According to Ukraine’s ministry of defense half of the group was killed on the spot and about half of the remaining cadets were captured or escaped.

Rescue efforts to save civilians trapped by building collapses are ongoing in all the attack zones in the country.  Yesterday rescuers in Kharkiv were able to free 6 individuals from underneath building rubble.  Russian forces strafed relief columns carrying food ad medicines to Izium and Bakaleia Kharkiv Oblast.

Russia sent in three fresh tactical battle groups to strengthen forces attacking Kharkiv and Sumy.

Russian artillery fire hit the municipal hospital in Trostiantsi Sumy Oblast causing major damage.  The governor of Sumy Oblast said yesterday that Russian soldiers are increasingly looting and kidnapping people they suspect might be Ukrainian patriots.  The governor indicated those helping Russian soldiers will be arrested and tried for treason.

Rescue efforts at Mariupol’s theatre which served as bomb shelter continues and more than 300 civilians have been evacuated.  Estimates are that more 1300 remained trapped under the rubble.  The Greek government has volunteered to rebuild the theatre after the war.  The majority of Ukrainians of Greek descent live in or near Mariupol.

The mayor of Mariupol yesterday rejected a Russian ultimatum that he capitulate.

Ukrainian forces counterattacked encircling Russian forces around Mariupol and destroyed a command center including a group of officers, a munitions store, tank, armored personnel carrier, and an infantry platoon.

Yesterday in Luhansk Oblast Russian shelling of Rybizhno, Severodonestsk, Pryvilia, and Kremenoi led to the destruction of 54 home, 4 people killed and 10 injured.  Ukraine’s national guard captured two armored personnel carriers that were in good working order.  In addition to abandoning their vehicles, deserting Russians also left their guns.

Russia continued pounding Verkhtroichke, Krymske, Avdiivka, Taramchyk, and Mariupol, in Donetsk Oblast with artillery fire.

Municipal authorities in Zaporizhia two rail freight car wagons of metal destined for Russia.  The rolled sheet metal, purchased by a Russian client, is for making rocket bodies.

One Ukrainian firefighter killed, and four injured by Russian artillery fire while trying extinguish a fire in a private home in the village of Natalivka, Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian forces destroyed the command center of the 8th Russian army based in Chornobaiv airport outside of the city of Kherson.  A few days earlier Ukrainian artillery fire destroyed 12 Russian attack helicopters at the same location.

Russian forces are holding the secretary of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, municipal council in the local police jail for the second day in a row.  According to council deputy he is being tortured.

Forces retreating from the siege of Mykolaiv are starting to dig trenches and bunkers and it appears they are preparing to stay.

administrative office building in Korosten, Zhytomir Oblast was hit and destroyed by artillery fire this morning.    Several members of my wife’s family live in Korosten, including my wife’s niece who is the CEO of the largest hospital in Korosten.  

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[1] Christopher Miller, “Ukraine’s Top Security Service Deeply Infiltrated by Russian Spies,” Mashabe Dec. 30, 2014 http://mashable.com/2014/12/30/russian-vs-ukrainian-spies/#tXf1Tfd5dZq9

[2] “Economist,” July 26, 2014 (http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21608808-boko-haram-thrives-weakness-governments-region-lake)

[3] “Ukraine Announces Pullout of Iraq Force,” Washington Post, Jan. 11, 2005 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A64197-2005Jan10.html)

[4] Interview with _______ (name intentionally withheld)