Bob Homans March 16

20220317

Very quiet night and morning in Kyiv. Here is what Bob writes. You have his contacts, but it looks like our electricity is going to stay up. Slava Boga! Slava Ukraina!

Ukraine – 3/16 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
March 16, 2022

Ukraine – 3/16 Sitrep –

As usual, in this Section any comments from me are in Bold Face

Relying on my memory, and not Wikipedia, I believe that a salient feature of the Brontosaurus – that really big dinosaur, was that their miniscule brains relied on supplementary modules in the spinal cord to get messages from the tail to their heads.  The lumbering giants eventually got the message even if it was late. 

It appears that the pea sized brain controlling Russia is starting to get the message as well.  Yesterday, Charles Michelle, President of the European Council, reported the results of yesterday’s telephone call with Putin.  Michelle said that Putin didn’t demand or issue ultimatums about denazification, demilitarization, recognition that Crimea is part of Russia, and that Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts belong to Russian terrorist puppets.  Instead, he whined to Michelle that the Ukrainians are not compromising.  After 20 days of Ukrainians destroying Russian invaders, Putin is getting the message.  Russia is paying and will continue to pay for its actions.

For its isolated leader, turning prehistoric Russia around will not be an easy task, and probably an impossible task.  After three days of negotiations Ukraine, according to President Zelensky, will compromise on joining NATO, and nothing else.  If Russia does not accept this fig leaf, then it will continue losing on Ukraine’s battlefields, on the economic front, and the war for global hearts and minds.

The only group of supporters Russia will never lose are people who don’t get the message.  A retired Canadian officer, who was born during the Second World War, and grew up in a military environment drew the following parallel regarding the so called heroic North American truckers and Putin’s Russia.  The truckers and Putin believe that their self-justified actions are a fight for their rights and causes no damage, injury, or violation of others’ rights.  Both, not having things their way, feel justified in using force to get their way.  The only rights that count are their rights.

Sooner or later the malevolent nature of self-styled fighters for their rights alone is exposed, and they are liquidated.  This is not a paean to liberalism but a lesson that history continues to teach repeatedly.

Recent Events – Within the last day, Ukraine has launched 2 counteroffensives against Russia.  The first, to the west of Kyiv, is designed to push Russia out of the satellite towns of Irpin, Bucha and Gostumel.   Pushing Russia out of these towns will prevent Russia from bringing up artillery and rocket launchers to bombard Kyiv from the northwest.   The second, from Mykolaiv in the south, is designed to retake Kherson.  Today, Ukraine destroyed several Russian aircraft parked at the Kherson Airport, where Russia is attempting to establish as an airbase.   Kherson has become increasingly significant to Ukraine, because of Russian plans to declare Kherson the 3rd “people’s republic, after Donetsk and Luhans.”  Russia will likely use Kherson as a pawn in any peace negotiation.

Seven elite Russian guards, designated to protect Russia’s President, were killed in Ukraine.  Ramzan Kadirov, current President of Chechnya who was bragging that he is in Ukraine and will take Kyiv, was spotted yesterday shortly after his boast in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. 

Elon Musk has taken advantage of the heightened attention surrounding the invasion of Ukraine.  He has provided tremendous assistance in providing no cost hook up and equipment for Star Link.  He has also subtly derided Putin’s macho image by challenging him to one-on-one combat with the winner taking Ukraine.  Putin has enough brains to avoid the challenge.  Kadirov his cringing servant seeking to improve his standing with the autocrat jumped up and said take me, take me.  Musk replied that if seconds are to fight he will appoint his shortly.

Chernobyl - Russian forces “guarding” Chernobyl have started looting the site stripping it of protective clothing and computers.  The situation at Enerhodar nuclear plant remains unchanged. An attack on the Pervomaisk nuclear station was repulsed.  Ukrainian nuclear experts remain dumbfounded that soldiers are attacking nuclear stations as a small miscalculation would be a disaster for the attackers.

Russian Losses - British intelligence opinion is that Russian forces are completely stalled because they are not venturing off the main roads and Russia failed to establish air superiority.  Today’s Financial Times has a fascinating article describing why the Javelin anti-tank missile, and the Stinger anti-aircraft missile, have become so effective against Russian Forces.  The Pentagon issued a statement yesterday that Russia has shot 950 missiles at Ukraine from its territory since the start of the invasion.  Ukraine’s military command opined that its estimate of Russian losses amount to 40% of personnel and equipment that invaded.  Ukraine’s Ministry of the interior estimated 3,500 objects of civilian infrastructure have been hit by Russia.

To date a total of 28 churches, seminaries and monasteries have been hit by Russian fire.  Surprisingly most often hit are Russian orthodox religious structures.

Cyber warfare continues with hackers breaking into Russian Arbitration court sites to post a message that a war crime tribunal is waiting for Putin in the Hague.

Ukraine’s Prosecutor General has registered 103 cases of Russian invaders killing children.

This morning Russian forces kidnapped six volunteers providing humanitarian assistance in Buchansk, a village thirty kilometers from Kyiv.  The whereabouts of the volunteers is unknown at this time.  On all northern and western approaches to Kyiv columns of Russians are trying unsuccessfully to break through defenses and are suffering equipment and personnel losses from ambushes and counterattacks.

Today a Russian fighter bomber was shot down approaching Chernihiv and an attack on Novoselivka in Chernihiv Oblast was rebuffed.

Over the last twenty-four hours Russia has continued sporadic shelling of Kharkiv, and Ukrainian forces continue skirmishing and ambushing Russian forces attempting to take the city.  Reports indicate that Russians were pushed back by another few kilometers from Kharkiv satellite towns of Piatykhaty and Ryski Tyshi.  Yesterday a Russian fighter was shot down over Kharkiv.

Ukraine’s second quizling was uncovered in the village council of Solonychivsk.  The village councilor was arrested for sending SMS to other councilors asking them to join in creating a new government and to arrest troublemakers.  In contrast, Melitopol’s Russian appointed Mayor has been hiding behind Russian soldiers,

Russian forces continue destroying civilian infrastructure in Mariupol with aim of leveling the city with the ground.  Mariupol is in the midst of a humanitarian catastrophe.  Yesterday approximately 4,000 cars, and 20,000 civilians were able to evacuate from Mariupol.  Russian forces are constantly losing helicopters that are trying to maintain the siege of Mariupol.  All other communities in Donetsk oblast are suffering from shelling, mortar and ballistic rocket attacks.

Mariupol’s intensive care hospital has been surrounded by Russian soldiers.  Patients and staff are not allowed to leave for the last two days.  Residents from nearby burning buildings are being herded into the hospital by Russian soldiers.

Yesterday Ukrainian border guards repulsed a Russian column trying to enter Ukraine north of the occupied zone.

Ukrainian authorities in the Oblast say they have lost the capacity to count civilian casualties.

Ukrainian forces pushed invaders out of the outskirts of Lisichansk, Luhansk Oblast, back to the lines prior to the invasion and are currently fighting with a Russian column from Rubizhno trying to enter Lisichansk.

Fighting continues in occupied Kherson Oblast in several communities.  Ukrainian forces are counterattacking invaders lodged in Kherson airport, and in smaller communities confrontations between unarmed civilian demonstrators and Russian soldiers continue.  Russian forces abandoned the village of Chylakivka because of demonstrations.

Invaders issued a call for Ukrainians in Kherson Oblast to join their newly created local police force. 

Today the Ukrainian armed forces shot down two airplanes over the Black Sea near Odesa.  Yesterday Russian vessels sporadically shelled some coastal areas of Odesa.   There have been consistent rumors of a Russian amphibious assault against Odesa, as well as rumors that the Russian marines tasked with carrying out the landing are resistant, and for good reason.  Odesa has had time to prepare, and there are few adequate landing beaches to choose from.  Ukraine has still not used the Neptune anti-ship missile, with a range of 300 Km.  The Neptune was in final testing shortly before the start of the war.

Russian forces continued shelling Mykolaiv.  Ukrainian forces defending Mykolaiv were successful yesterday in forcing two Russian columns to retreat to Kherson Oblast.  A rocket hit a school yesterday in Mykolaiv killing seven students.

Berdichiv in Zhytomir oblast was hit by two long range rockets damaging apartments but no civilian casualties.

After successfully attacking the television and radio transmission tower in Rivno the Russians this morning hit the transmission tower in Vinnytsia.  It appears that Russia still has smart rockets but no more smart bombs.

Except for the South, Russia’s movements in the rest of Ukraine appear to have stalled.   Today, I have not heard of significant shelling in either Kyiv or Kharkiv or bombing attacks in the West.

President Zelenskyy’s Speech to a Joint Session of the U.S. Congress –

Here is the full speech, containing a video showing some of the death and destruction that has taken place in Ukraine.  The combination of Zelenskyy’s speech and the video was very powerful.  Shortly afterwards, President Biden ordered an additional $800 billion in defense assistance.   During the speech Pres. Zelenskyy among other things, President Zelenskyy asked the S-300 anti-aircraft system and the Polish MiG 29s.  The S-300 is designed to shoot down attacking planes flying at altitudes higher than the maximum effective altitude of the Stinger missiles.   Along with its capability against cruise missiles, the S-300 could substantially reduce the damage Russia can do to Ukrainian cities.

Lobbying for Russia –

Those who have been long-time recipients of my emails know that I have frequently called out American professional firms that work with Russian clients.   This is an article from the FT describing some of the recent engagements that American firms have with Russian clients.

The FT Article mentions the BGR Group.  BGR has done work for Ukraine in the past, but the article states that BGR has also done work for Nordstream II, the Russian-owned gas pipeline transiting the Baltic Sea, a project that Ukraine has wanted to shut down almost since Nordstream II’s inception.   I have been critical of BGR in the past.  I once met to a meeting at BGR.  Upon walking into the building where BGR is located, I felt what Jamal Khashoggi might have felt, upon entering the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.

The article also mentions Mercury, possibly the same Mercury that had been working with Paul Manafort to burnish the image of Viktor Yanukkovich.   According to the FT, Mercury was writing letters on behalf of its client Sovcombank as recently as last month, hoping to keep the bank off the sanctions list.  Mercury was unsuccessful.

Two Interesting Developments –

·        $5 Billon to Finance a Puppet Government in Ukraine – I heard a report that the Russians gave $5 billion to Ukrainian 5th Columnists to finance a puppet government in Ukraine.  Of that amount Viktor Medvedchuk, the leader of the Opposition Party – For Life Ukraine’s Pro-Russia opposition Party, got $1 billion.   Medvedchuk is now on the lam, having escaped house arrest.

·        The Banderamobile – Former President Poroshenko has been working closely with Ukraine’s territorial defense forces.   Poroshenko is a very successful businessman.  I understand he is now producing a vehicle for the territorial defense forces called the Banderamobile, after Stepan Bandera, a controversial Ukrainian nationalist leader who was the Head of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN).  Often, Russia accuses a Ukrainian of being a “Banderite.”  Obviously, the name, Banderamobile, is deliberately used to infuriate Russians.   I understand the vehicle may look like a Humvee used by the U.S. Marines and, like certain models of the Humvee, it has a machine gun turret on the top.  I understand that the Banderamobile is being financed by Poroshenko and built at one of his factories.