Bob Homans March 14

20220315

Bob Homans's sitrep from yesterday.  Once again I encourage you to subscribe directly. I am amazed that I still have electricity and Internet this late in the game. 

WhatsApp - +1-207-513-0774  US Office - +703-519-1211  US Mobile - +1-207-513-0774

On a personal note, a perpetual annoyance has been that the women of the household pester the men about making any noise while the baby is sleeping. As I said in this speech a while ago, they treat men and boys as rogue elephants, but seem to think that noise made by women is inaudible to babies. This morning Marianna slept through the loudest boom we have had yet. Maybe some good will come of this war.

Ukraine – 3/14 Sitrep
A Sniper Unit
Kyiv Replacing Moscow as E. Europe Business Hub
By: Robert Homans
March 14, 2022

3/14 Sitrep –

Charity Suggestions - Another charity with strong on the ground presence and with a few thousand volunteers you may want to consider is Bring them Back Alive - https://www.comebackalive.in.ua/uk/donate

A military assistance fund, managed by a former United States Marine Colonel, that has been living in Ukraine since 1993, The Ukrainian Freedom Fund will direct your donations to purchasing defensive gear such as body armor, knee and elbow pads, helmets -

https://www.ukrfreedomfund.org/#block-panels-mini-donate-block

Russian Desperation - Russia’s Minister of Defense, Shoygu issued a command yesterday immediately discharging all Russian POWs from service in the Russian Armed Forces.  His reason is that they are an embarrassment.  This command comes in combination with the commands to the invaders that they are to take what they need from Ukrainian civilians, allowed to shoot to kill Ukrainian civilians[1], and to create a special battalion to shoot any Russian who retreats issued two days ago.  Total collapse of Russian leadership.

Coverage by the Western Media - The western press, I read daily – the Financial Times, New York Times, Bloomberg and occasionally the Wall Street Journal and the Globe and Mail, believes that Russia’s superior forces will prevail, but now with the proviso - eventually.  None of the Western press I read has picked up on these official Russian Ministry of Defense commands. 

Had the press and western intelligence sources they quote thought about the information they are getting and digesting, still mostly from Russian sources, they would infer that these are commands issued by a disintegrating military incapable of directing operations or supplying its forces and that acts as if its forces are purely expendable.  Armies that intentionally shoot their own are failures.

Given the incompetence displayed by the Russian military command I am perplexed that many observers still believe that these ultra-morons can figure out the tactical steps necessary to regroup and continue attacking.    This is borne out by recent operations around Kyiv, including:

·        The 40-mile column that went nowhere for several days, now hiding in the woods.

·        Several operations to the northwest and northeast of Kyiv, consisting of columns of tanks and APC’s operating without air cover or infantry support, inviting Ukrainians to chop them up using anti-tank rockets and armed drones, resulting in -

·        Limited success in establishing fire bases within range of Central Kyiv, with which to launch continual artillery and rocket bombardment of Kyiv.

All this evidence is available to the Western media, but it never seems to be reported.   An excellent daily source of information on Russian military maneuvers (if we can call it that), can be found here.   This assessment is published daily.

In part it appears that commentators and journalists still believe in the stereotype of the almighty Russian bear.  Not hard to rely on stereotypes when genuine information is either hard to come by or, more likely, ignored because it doesn’t fit the narrative.

Of the American TV Networks, in my opinion the most balanced coverage of the war is Brett Baer’s news program on Fox News at 6PM EDT.   He uses an interactive map that is very useful in showing the current situation.  The one criticism I have is that the areas on the map that show Russian control are, in fact, either controlled by Ukraine or areas where Ukraine resistance is active.   There is a map in the analysis we included here that shows areas of active Ukrainian resistance.   Perhaps Brett Baer will incorporate this information onto his map.

In my opinion the worst coverage on American TV news is the PBS Newshour with Judy Woodruff.   Woodruff has used the same narrative from the start of the war until today, even though the evidence of Ukraine’s military successes, and Russia’s military incompetence, has grown concurrently.   Those who like to watch PBS Newshour with Judy Woodruff, myself included, would be well-served to mute the segments on Ukraine or, better yet, tape the program and fast-forward through the Ukraine segments.   People who watch PBS Newshour can be excused, if they wonder why Ukraine didn’t surrender after two days.

Most of the American TV networks suffer from not having correspondents near the fighting.  Instead of being imbedded with Ukrainian units, such as what Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is going, they try to cover the war from the rooftop bar of the Kyiv Intercontinental Hotel, or from Lv’iv, which is 300 miles from the fighting.  Better to protest, “the talent.”

Looting - Areas from which refugees have been fleeing are facing intermittent looting.  Yesterday we mentioned that the mayor of Mariupol sentenced 24 looters to dealing with rubble and searching for remains under destroyed buildings.  Looting is taking place in other areas as well and looters are being treated similarly – made to clean up and assist with dealing with the aftermath of attacks.  This treatment has improved since the beginning of the war when looters were stripped naked and taped to a lamppost.  In Zakarpatia local police have stopped allowing drunk drivers to keep their 4*4 or other all-terrain vehicles if they are found to be driving under the influence.  If caught drunk driving the vehicle is impounded on the spot and handed over to the army or border guards.

In addition to looters more traitors were caught.  They are being uncovered because they are caught taking pictures of Ukrainian forces’ defensive positions, and they are placing beacons on sensitive targets like schools and hospitals.  Among them are three teenage girls, who were paid to put targeting beacons on targets in a village near Bela Tsirkva, south of Kyiv.   With turncoats its immediate incarceration awaiting trial after the war ends.

Evacuation Routes - Yesterday 10 of fourteen planned evacuation routes from surrounded cities in the north, the Donbas and the south were operational.  Unfortunately, persistent Russian shelling did not allow people to evacuate from Mariupol.  The mayor of Mariupol said yesterday that he estimates that over 2,000 civilians have been killed, and twice that many injured in the city.  The Ukrainian government estimates over 5,000 killed civilians and 2,000 Ukrainian military personnel killed.  The numbers of wounded and injured is 2 to 3 times more.

Poland - Reports from Poland indicate that Belarusian police and soldiers with their families are fleeing to Poland and asking for refugee status as they don’t want to join the Russian war effort or fight on behalf of Lukashenko.   There are also reports of Polish citizens blocking border crossings into Belarus, preventing Russian trucks from Germany carrying goods to both Belarus and Russia.   Perhaps this can be described as a reverse truckers’ protest, with the trucks being the object of the protest, but not the subject. 

Russian Losses - The Ukrainian government estimates that 30% of invading personnel and equipment have been liquidated, but has stopped trying to keep tallies of killed, wounded, and captured.  Equipment tallies are still being maintained but they may also be curtailed soon.  The Ukrainian government estimates that over 5 billion USD of Russian equipment has been destroyed.

The North - Yesterday Ukrainian armed forces liberated two towns in Chernihiv Oblast and added another 6 tanks and 4 armored personnel vehicles to their inventory.

The South - Russian soldiers have been ordered to prepare a referendum in Kherson to legitimize another pseudo state in Ukraine, the Kherson people’s republic.  They may have received this order after the first quizling appeared in Ukraine after 19 days of fighting.  The quizling, a member of Melitopol’s City Council has been appointed by Russian soldiers as the mayor of Melitopol.  The elected mayor was taken away three days ago by Russian soldiers and yesterday and today there are large public demonstrations appealing for his release.  The quizling has not gone out to address demonstrators.

Henechesk city council, Kherson Oblast, resigned en-masse rather than take orders from the invaders.

The Russian strategy of establishing “people’s republics” in captured cities won’t work nearly as well as it did in Crimea.   At the time of Russia’s takeover of Crimea, 58% of the population spoke Russian as their primary language, and there was significant support for Russia, but nowhere close to the 95% plurality reported by Russia.  Based on anti-Russia demonstrations now taking place in Kherson Oblast, no one will take seriously a referendum asking Russia to recognize a people’s republic in Kherson, other than what it would be – a sham.

Destroying Cities - Russia’s tactic of levelling cities to the ground has failed in the one city where they’ve tried it so far.  In Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast, they destroyed 90% of all structures.  Volnovakha’s municipal government is still functioning and is focused solely on liquidating invaders.

Donetsk City - The city of Donetsk, which has been under Russian control since 2014 is facing a crisis as its main water reservoir is expected to dry up within a month.  A half million people still live in Donetsk City, although the numbers are falling rapidly as Russian occupiers are pressing all able-bodied men between 18 and 65 into the attack on Ukraine.

Target Cities in Ukraine - Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol remain the Invaders primary targets.  Mariupol is suffering continuous artillery shelling and is on the verge of a humanitarian disaster.  Approximately 400,000 remain there and have been cut off from municipal services for more than a week.  In Kyiv and Kharkiv the invaders have been able to breach defenses of the satellite cities, but Russia has failed to control any of these cities.  Fighting is fierce in the satellite cities, including street to street fighting.  Because the Invaders have not been able to either encircle or close in Kharkiv the city is under aerial bombing and Kyiv under rocket and cruise missile attacks.

If Russia aspires to apply continuous rocket and artillery bombardment of Kyiv, they need to hold these satellite cities, that are within range of Central Kyiv.   Even so, none of these satellite cities are adequate places from where to launch armored attacks into Kyiv.   There are a limited number of roads, almost all of which cross bridges which either have been blown by Ukraine or certainly will be.  The streets themselves are wide, and surrounded by trees and/or tall buildings, and the roads make an excellent shooting gallery, for Ukrainian troops with anti-tank rockets, and civilians with Molotov Cocktails.

On the outskirts of Kharkiv self-defense forces employed Stinger missiles and destroyed two fighter bombers.  One which crashed across the border in Russia and the other in Ukrainian territory.  One enemy pilot was captured.  On the approaches to Kyiv’s satellite cities Ukrainian military and self-defense forces ambushed and destroyed two columns and are building a network of defensive trenches.

The Russian advance appears to be stalled.   As reported earlier, around Kyiv they seem to be advancing into cul de sacs, where they become vulnerable to Ukrainian counter attacks.   There are reports of Russian soldiers running out of food.   The Western press describes this as the Russians “re-grouping” or “re-supplying,” or simply part of the Russian strategy to surround Kyiv.  I’m not so sure.

In the last few days Russia has resorted to using high-altitude strategic bombers to hit cities and objectives in Western Ukraine, including the Yaroviv Training center, and targets in Lutsk, in northwest Ukraine, and Ivano Frankivsk, in western Ukraine south of Lv’iv.   The US, and other allies of Ukraine should immediately begin shipping anti-aircraft weapons capable of hitting Russian high-altitude bombers.  

A Sniper Unit –

This attached photo includes a very good friend of mine who will remain nameless and unidentified.   You can see how well armed they are.   Snipers have all gone through training, which includes handling sniper rifles, camouflage techniques, spending long periods of time in the woods staying motionless, including overnight stays.  Before the war, there were over 1,200 sniper schools throughout Ukraine.

Kyiv Replacing Moscow as the Preferred Business Hub –

As has been reported, since the start of the war, several hundred international companies have exited Moscow.   When they return to the Region, instead of returning to Moscow they should relocate to Kyiv.  Efforts in this direction should be starting now, with the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) of Ukraine, the U.S. Ukraine Business Council, the European Business Association (EBA) of Ukraine taking the lead.

Russia cannot be trusted as a reliable business partner or trusted as a location for companies doing business in Russia.   Kyiv should replace Moscow as the preferred platform for doing business in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the republics of the former Soviet Union.

Relative to Kyiv, Russia should return to the status it enjoyed in 1239 AD, prior to the Mongol sacking of Kyiv.

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[1] Yesterday there were reports of three civilians shot in Kyiv Oblast, another three killed in Kherson Oblast when a tank drove over their car, and two killed in Kharkiv Oblast after being driven over by a tank.