Ukraine – 3/13/23 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
March 13, 2023
News From the Battlefield
“ Reporting From Ukraine” and the “Latest Denys” appear to be at odds over Bakhmut. However, it seems that the former is better informed than the latter.
Both agree that there seems to be some indication that Ukraine has brought up reserves to 3-4 different staging areas near Bakhmut, and they may be preparing to launch an offensive, possibly on an axis north of Bakhmut, or a 2nd axis from Chasiv Yar. Reporting of Ukraine appears to be more convinced of this possibility than does Denys.
“Reporting from Ukraine” mentions that Ukraine still holds an industrial area inside Bakhmut called “the Azom Industrial Area” (1:45 into his video). Azom is now controlled by Ukraine. He states that without controlling Azom it will be impossible for Russia to take Bakhmut. Conversely, Reporting From Ukraine states that if Russia can take Azom that Bakhmut would fall very quickly and then, as Denys said, possibly result in a withdrawal situation similar to Ilovaisk in September 2014, when many trapped Ukrainian soldiers were killed. I don’t recall Denys ever mentioning Azom in any of his reports.
Along with rivers and tree belts, industrial areas like Azom are playing critical roles in this war. Ukraine retaining control of industrial areas in Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk for long periods of time, had the effect of delaying Russian offensives and increasing Russian casualties. It is possible that Ukraine’s retention of control of the industrial area in Sievierodonetsk contributed to Ukraine’s later success in taking back most of Kharkiv Oblast, by tying down Russian forces trying to take that city.
Denys mentions in his latest that he heard that Ukraine has moved some of its newly delivered Leopard II tanks to a location near Bakhmut, as part of Ukraine’s preparation for an offensive. Later in the same video he points out that the ground is still very muddy, which would slow down heavy tracked vehicles like tanks. To prove his point, Denys shows a picture of a trench with water over one’s ankles.
Once again, discussions about tanks appear to obscure the possibility that Ukraine, if indeed they plan to launch an offensive around Bakhmut, is more likely bringing up a large portion of the armored personnel carriers (APCs), Bradleys and others, that they have recently received from the U.S. and other countries. Bradleys, with their TOW missiles, are very effective tank destroyers. Ukraine made very effective use of the APCs that they had at the time in liberating large swaths of territory in both Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts.
Reports indicate that on some days Russia, especially the Wagners, have lost up to 1,000 people per day around Bakhmut. A previous “Reporting From Ukraine” stated that the Wagners have had to spread out their forces around Bakhmut, to be able to cover a larger part of the front, up to 60 miles. In Yesterday’s Denys, he used a map that appears to show the presence of regular Russian forces around Bakhmut, in addition to the Wagners. It may be reasonable to argue that the Russian positions in front of Bakhmut may be include large gaps in their lines, similar to Russian positions last Fall, at the time Ukraine launched its offensive that pushed the Russians out of almost all of Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukraine may’ve concluded that the Wagners have weakened to the point where they can launch an offensive that is powerful enough to end the Wagners as an effective fighting force. It is hard to imagine that even the doubters in D.C. would dismiss the upside of such a decision, if it is made.
In the latest “Reporting From Ukraine,” at 4:05 into the video, he reports that Wagner representatives are contacting psychiatrists with patients who are suicidal, suggesting that they advise their patients to sign up, as a more product means to end their lives.
Ukraine – 3/13/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon March 11 to 12:00 noon March 12, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
March 13
09:49 Navalny won the Oscar for Best Feature Length Documentary.
· "We should not be afraid to resist dictators and authoritarianism wherever it arises," Canadian director Daniel Roer, who directed Navalny, at the film awards.
08:15 CNN: North Korea on Sunday launched two submarine missiles in waters off its east coast and promised to use "the toughest opposition" against a joint U.S.-South Korean military exercise, -.
08:15 Yonhap: South Korea and the U.S. have launched a joint exercise called Freedom Shield, which will last 11 days without interruptions and will include full-scale field exercises,-.
00:53: Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, joked about the speaker of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova, who was angered by the proposal of Ukrainians to rename Russia to Muscovy.
· The diplomat advised a "colleague" to study the Ukrainian language instead of tantrums, and at the same time pay attention to the fact that China also returns historical names to Russian territories and settlements.
00:00 Sky News: Saakashvili is on the verge of death.
· According to his lawyer, he now looks "like a concentration camp prisoner."
· "At first I weighed 120 kilograms, now - 64. If I am less than 60, doctors predict multiorgan failure. I'm in bed all the time, my bones disintegrate, and it causes unbearable pain," the prisoner describes his condition.
March 12
23:30 Saakashvili said that he is threatened with multiple organ failure, and he is always in unbearable pain.
· "At first I weighed 120 kilograms, now I weigh 64. If I get less than 60, doctors predict multiple organ failure," the former Georgian president said in a written commentary to Sky News.
· Multiorgan failure syndrome is the development of insufficiency of two or more organs or organ systems. Characterized by prolonged hospitalization and high patient mortality.
23:15 Politico: Disagreements over the conduct of the war and options for ending the war are growing between the United States and Ukraine
· The publication notes that based on conversations with 10 officials, it identified points of tension, including the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the exhausting defense of Bakhmut, as well as Ukraine's intention to liberate Crimea.
· The United States is also frustrated with providing weapons to Ukraine — the White House complains that Zelensky sometimes does not show due gratitude.
· Another point of tension was a recent NYT (https://t.me/ukrpravda_news/28284) piece that the Pentagon was blocking the transfer of evidence of Russian war crimes. The White House is concerned that this publication could damage the moral image of the United States.
21:27: Czech President Petr Pavel will visit Ukraine in April.
· This was reported by CTK with reference to the statement of the press secretary of the president Marketa Rzhekhakova.
21:06 Bloomberg: India will abide by sanctions against Russia, including the upper limit of oil prices of $60.
· According to the agency, officials in the Indian government have asked banks and traders to comply with current restrictions.
18:04 Moldovan pro-Russian forces, which went to protests in the center of Chisinau on March 12, issued an ultimatum to the Government to compensate for energy bills. This was reported by the publication Newsmaker.
· It became known that the protesters issued an ultimatum to the Sandu government: by 13:00 on March 13, the authorities should resolve the issue of compensation for energy bills in the winter. What actions the protesters will take if these demands are not met are not reported in the resolution of the pro-Russian forces.
17:36 Embassy of Ukraine in Belgium: Luxembourg handed over to Ukraine 14 armored ambulances manufactured by the British company Venari.
17:18 Moldovan President Maia Sandu commented on the deployment of anti-tank fortifications on the border by the Ukrainian side. She told Teleradio Moldova.
· "What Ukraine is doing on its territory is its sovereign decision," the head of the Moldovan state said.
16:49: In Tel Aviv, Israel, there was a protest against judicial reform in the country.
· According to the organizers, the protest collected 250 thousand participants, the same number took to the streets in other cities.
15:30 Instructors from the Russian Federation, 100 leaders, 10 thousand dollars each: in Moldova, the headquarters of the overthrow of the authorities was exposed. On Sunday, March 12, 2023, Chief of the Inspectorate General of Police of the Republic of Moldova Viorel Cherneucian held a briefing at which he spoke about the successful special operation to expose the underground coordination center created with the participation of Russian citizens, athletes and criminal elements to destabilize the situation in the country.
· Two Russian curators directly operating in Moldova formed 10 groups of 10 people to lead the riots in Chisinau and clashes with the police. Each of this hundredth, he added, was promised 10 thousand dollars in remuneration.
14:07 ERR: Three pro-Russian politicians have been arrested in Estonia, one of whom recently traveled to occupied Donetsk and Mariupol.
· They were charged under Article 235 of the Penitentiary Code (creating or maintaining relations with a foreign state for the purpose of committing a crime).
13:53 working anti-aircraft missiles from the British Rapier air defense system, which the Switzerland has been decommissioning since the end of 2022, and which could be transferred to Ukraine to protect civilian infrastructure
13:33 protest in Chisinau - police warned of possible riots
13:28 Reuters: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak flies to the US on March 12, where he will meet with US President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanianis.
· They are expected to announce the steps that will be taken in the next phase of the nuclear submarine creation program as part of the AUKUS security partnership aimed at countering China.
13:07 Bild: Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on the German authorities to accelerate the supply of shells for Ukraine.
· According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, German defense companies are ready to supply ammunition to the Ukrainian military. However, now the delay has arisen at the government level.
NATIONAL
March 13
11:54 Ukrenergo: In the Mykolaiv region, the supply of all consumers who were left without power supply as a result of hostilities has been completed.
· Due to equipment overloading, there are emergency outages in some districts of Kyiv and Kyiv region. In Zhytomyr and Kharkiv regions, with an increase in consumption during peak hours, it is possible to use hourly shutdown schedules.
11:24 a.m.: The threat of a missile strike is extremely high, - OK "South".
· 2 surface rocket carriers, equipped with up to 16 Caliber missiles, were launched into the Black Sea.
10:23: In total, during the week, the Ukrainian military destroyed 5 munitions warehouses, 7 bases/command centers/headquarters of Russian troops.
08:32 Operational Command South: The likelihood of a new Russian missile attack on Ukraine is currently delayed due to a storm at sea.
· "Currently, the sea is on our side - stormy weather forces us to bring rocket carriers to basing points, but we know that at least one surface rocket carrier is equipped and ready - these are eight Kalibr-type missiles.
07:12 General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Despite significant losses, the Russians continue offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Mariinsky and Shakhtarsky directions. Last day, units of the Defense Forces repulsed 102 attacksof Russian troops in these areas.
· Over the past day, the Russians launched 3 missile strikes on the civilian infrastructure of the city of Sloviansk, Donetsk region. They also inflicted 8 air strikes and carried out 49 attacks from the MLRS.
· Russians continue to plunder temporarily occupied territories,
· Recently, in Enerhodar, the Russians began to export training equipment from the training center of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, where personnel development was carried out.
· Against the background of large losses of personnel in the war, the Russians use alternative sources of replenishment of manpower,
· Thus, last week, the movement towards the Donetsk region of a train with reserved seat cars for the transportation of prisoners was noted. One of the wagons is with convicted women.
· During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck the anti-aircraft missile system of the Russian Federation, as well as 6 strikes - on areas of concentration of Russian personnel and military equipment,
· Units of rocket troops and artillery hit the control point, 2 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation, as well as 2 ammunition depots and a warehouse of fuel and lubricants.
March 12
23:44 Operational Command North: The situation on Ukraine's northern borders is stable and under control.
· The threat of Belarus on Ukraine's northern borders remains low. Russian troops arrive on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Before that, rotation was carried out - part of the forces of the Russian army was withdrawn.
· Now at four training grounds of Belarus there are tent camps that are ready to receive additional forces of the Russian Armed Forces
22:25: On the Ukrainian-Romanian border, border guards prevented an attempt to illegally import a significant consignment of tobacco products hidden in a truck.
· "200 boxes of cigarettes worth more than 6 million hryvnias were taken out of the tank.
19:57 press service of the Security Service of Ukraine: The Security Service finally confirmed the identity of the Hero who was shot after the words "Glory to Ukraine".
· "The investigators established that it was a sniper of the 163rd battalion of the 119th separate brigade of the TRO of the Chernihiv region, Matsievsky Alexander Igorevich.
· Currently, the SBU is taking comprehensive measures to identify Russian servicemen who committed this crime," the message says.
19:41: Parimatch ceases its activities on the territory of Ukraine.
· The company issued a statement.
18:30: Volodymyr Zelenskyy talked to the participants of the 27th Ukrainian Antarctic Expedition on the 160th anniversary of the birth of Volodymyr Vernadsky.
· "Today we are all fighting for the sake of our state and our future. And your steps to develop science also bring our victory closer," the president wrote.
18:43 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on March 12:
· "During this day, the enemy launched a missile strike on the civilian infrastructure of the city of Sloviansk, Donetsk region.
· The enemy also launched 4 air strikes and carried out about 20 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems."
· "In some settlements of the temporarily occupied Kherson region, the Russian occupiers are looting.
· Russian invaders are trying to sell looted "gadgets" and household appliances to civilians, but in other settlements."
· "The Russian military leadership is taking measures to restore losses in manpower.
· Thus, on March 10, replenishment from the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug arrived in Yalta, which is in the Donetsk region.
· There is a low motivation and unwillingness of enemy personnel to take part in hostilities."
· "During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck the enemy's anti-aircraft missile system, as well as 6 strikes on the areas of concentration of its personnel and military equipment.
· Our units of rocket troops and artillery hit the control point, 2 areas of concentration of enemy personnel and military equipment, as well as an ammunition depot."
18:06: Boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk told what changed in his worldview after the start of a full-scale war and why he switched to the Ukrainian language.
17:16 Operational Command South: There may be more Russian firing points on the Kinburn Spit.
· "We're tracking that work, but we can react when they've fired at least one shot. This is the specificity of the spit itself, where it is not very easy for us to detect them," Gumeniuk said.
15:48 First Deputy Minister of Defense: During the week, the Ukrainian military liquidated 5970 Russian occupiers.
· He also said that the Russian military lost 2 planes, 37 drones, 52 tanks, 77 armored combat vehicles, 61 artillery systems, 5 RZSV and 34 cruise missiles.
16:08: Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a conversation with Czech President Petro Pavel.
· "I congratulated you on officially taking office. I informed about the situation at the front, our security needs. We talked about Ukraine's movement to the European Union. We agreed to continue to actively interact," the president wrote.
15:08: The first baptism of fire of British MANPADS in Ukraine According to the officer of the 95th Air Assault Brigade Yuri Kochevenko, the first ever combat use of the British MANPADS "Starstruck" took place in Ukraine - a fighter of the 95th Air Assault Brigade hit a russian UAV "Orlan"
13:47 Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Up to 5 Russian ships are on alert in the Black Sea.
· in the Sea of Azov, the Russians placed 1 ship, and in the Mediterranean - 7, of which 3 are carriers of cruise missiles "Kalibr", the total volley of which is 20 missiles.
Mordor - russia
March 13
00:40: Russian hackers claim to have gained access to some of the confidential S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2 games and blackmail developers by draining data.
· They require developers to add Russian localization. And also — "to think about it, to rethink your attitude towards players from Belarus and Russia, to apologize for the unworthy attitude towards ordinary players from these countries."
· The Ukrainian studio GSC Game World stressed that they are Ukrainian company that will not change its principled position. In addition, most of the stolen data is outdated.
March 12
20:38 The apocalypse begins with Ukraine": Metropolitan of the UOC-MP Pavlo responded to the demand to be completely evicted from the Lavra
· Metropolitan of the UOC-MP Pavlo (Petro Lebid) in response to the demand of the National Reserve "Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra" to liberate the territory of the Lower Lavra by March 29, 2023, that he would "fight to the last."
· "On March 29, we must - monks, more than 200 people - leave the walls of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, our home. The grandchildren of the leaders of the revolution, the persecutors of the church of Christ today are covered with benefits. Not surely, but exactly: the Apocalypse will begin in Ukraine," said the Metropolitan, who is the abbot of the UOC-MP monastery located in the Lower Lavra.
19:22: Lukashenko arrived on a visit to Iran, according to Belarusian media.
12:52 The head of the Russian Orthodox church, Kirill, called on the Pope and UN Secretary-General António Guterres to prevent the termination of the UOC-MP's agreement with the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra.
· Kirill sent a message to the religious and political leaders of the world calling "not to allow the Ukrainian authorities to expel the monks of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra."
12:31 British intelligence: The Russian army continues to suffer huge losses in the war against Ukraine. This leads to an increasing isolation of the Russian elite from the population.
· Thus, on February 21, during Putin's address, the first ranks of the audience were occupied by Russian officials and the elite. However, it is known that their children did not join the ranks of the Russian troops.
· Intelligence notes that this incites the Russian population, especially in areas where the level of losses is highest.
KHARKIV
March 13
11:08 Kharkiv RMA: Last day, with the artillery of tanks and mortars, Russians shelled the settlements of Kupyansk, Dvorechnaya, Zapadne, Streletcha, Veliky Burluk and others.
· There were no casualties among the civilian population.
11:07 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kupyansk district of the Kharkiv region.
DONETSK
March 13
10:07 Donetsk RMA: On March 12, Russians wounded 7 residents of Donetsk region: 4 in Bakhmut, 2 in Krasnohorivka and 1 in Kostiantynivka.
09:08 Commander of the Land Forces: The situation around Bakhmut remains difficult : the "Wagnerians" are trying to break through the defenses of the Ukrainian troops and advance to the central regions of the city. Assault units are advancing from several directions.
March 12
22:53 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region,
21:47 Advisor to the Mayor of the city: Ukrainian radio has started working in the temporarily occupied Mariupol.
· According to him, the Ukrainian radio wave can be found by a simple search by frequencies.
18:12 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region.
14:48 State Border Guard Service: In Donetsk region, border guards repelled enemy attacks and eliminated two dozen invaders, including in the Bakhmut area.
· "As a result of the fighting, 9 occupants were killed, another 12 were wounded," the report said.
12:29 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Mariupol of Donetsk region.
12:10 Donetsk RMA: The Russians once again shelled the Donetsk region.
· Shelling was recorded in the Donetsk, Horlivka and Lysychansk directions. In the city of Kurakhove, more than 12 high-rise buildings, 20 private houses, an art school and a lyceum were damaged.
· In Kostiantynivka, 4 houses, 2 shops, the building of the former hospital, the overpass and the economic premises of the enterprise were damaged.
· In Seversk, private houses on two streets were damaged.
15:29: Shakhtar Football Club has ceased cooperation with Parimatch, against which it has imposed sanctions by the National Security and Defense Council, according to the official website of Shakhtar.
· The Donetsk club explained that they had stopped cooperation with Parimatch due to the relevant decree of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The company's logo was located on Shakhtar's T-shirts.
DNIPRO
March 13
11:10 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
KHERSON
March 13
12:00 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
11:39 Kherson RMA: The Russians attacked the Kherson region 56 times, firing more than 330 shells.
· The Russian army twice shelled residential areas of Kherson. Shells targeted private and apartment buildings. 1 person was injured.
08:46 Social Networks: Explosions heard again in Kherson
08:09 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
March 12
22:41: Members of the underground movement "Atesh" blew up the railway track between the villages of Radensk and Abrikosovka in the temporarily occupied part of the Kherson region.
22:10 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
20:42 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
12:49 First Deputy Head of the Regional Council: This morning, the enemy shelled a residential sector in Bilozerka, Kherson region, injuring 1 person.
MYKOLIAV
March 13
07:59 Mykolaiv RMA: The Russians have just shelled the settlement of the Kutsurub community of the Mykolaiv district.
· According to preliminary information, one died, there may still be people under the rubble. There is the destruction of residential buildings.
· As a result of the morning Russian settlement ofthe Kutsurub community, a man and a woman born in 1978 and 1980 were killed, and a 7-year-old child was taken away by an ambulance. In addition, two people were injured
KYIV
March 12
09:17 DTEK: Stabilization shutdowns have been applied in some districts of Kyiv.
· In part of Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Shevchenkivskyi and Solomianskyi districts, shutdowns occur according to stabilization schedules. Due to damage to the equipment, power facilities cannot transfer energy to all residents of these areas.
SUMY
March 12
23:05: The Sumy RMA reported that during the day the Russians shelled the territory of the Belopole community. 18 arrivals from mortars were recorded.
· According to the military, the operational situation in the border regions of Sumy region is currently under control. The formation of enemy offensive groups near the state border was not detected.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka