Ukraine – 3/12/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
March 12, 2023
“Next Year in Moscow” – Episode 2
Listen on Apple Podcasts:
“A decade ago Russia's middle class was larger and richer than it had ever been. “Russians are OK” was the title of a popular YouTube channel. But Vladimir Putin’s return to power sparked unprecedented protests as two very different visions of Russia vied for dominance.”
“Next Year in Moscow” is hosted by Arkady Ostrovsky, an editor at the Economist. His focus is on members of the Russian middle class, and members of the Russian intelligencia, who have fled Russia. I think the events inside Russia, especially the hollowing out of Russia’s middle class and the departure of the members of the intelligencia, will play a significant role in how this war plays out and the country Russia becomes after the war.
Episode 3 came out yesterday. I normally listen to podcasts while working out at the gym, so I will share next week.
News From the Battlefield
Combining the last 2 reports from “Reporting From Ukraine,” along with the Latest Denys, gives one the feeling that Ukraine may be trying to establish conditions similar to last Fall, when they launched 2 counteroffensives almost simultaneously, one toward Kherson and the other to reclaim almost all of Kharkiv Oblast.
This time the counteroffensives may include not just the south, the vector that people consider most likely, but also the east around Bakhmut. This is his latest, covering the area around Vuhledar; this is his previous report, covering the area around Bakhmut.
In the south, there are now 3 possibilities:
· Vuhledar south toward Mariupol, taking advantage of Russia’s failure to take Vuhledar and Ukrainian HIMARS strikes, and/or use of longer-range weapons, against Russian troop concentrations and ammunition dumps around Mariupol. Liberating Mariupol would have huge psychological significance for Ukraine, it would likely lay bare the most extensive atrocities against Ukrainians to date.
· To the west toward Melitopol, considered to be the most likely vector since it would split the land bridge.
· Attacking across the Dnipro from Kherson City, to clear out Russian forces that have been continually shelling Kherson City and, possibly going southeast toward the entrance to Crimea. There are reports today, that Ukraine is planning an operation to drive Russia back to a distance of 20km. from the Left Bank of the Dnieper River, as a means to prevent Russia from shelling Kherson.
Reporting From Ukraine’s Bakhmut report includes the possible use of a JDAM bomb, a long-range (up to 40 miles) weapon supplied by the U.S. that is launched from the air. Ukrainian and American technicians have been successful in modifying Ukrainian fixed-wing aircraft to carry weapons supplied by the U.S. and other allies. Last summer, Ukraine used HARM anti-radiation missiles, supplied by the U.S. and launched from a MiG-29, to attack Russian air bases in Crimea. It appears that they’ve made similar modifications, to accommodate the use of JDAMs.
The Latest Denys includes an extraordinary clip, starting at 4:55 into his video that purportedly shows thermal images Russian dead lying in a field near Bakhmut. He is also employing a new version of his tactical map, showing the location of Russian/Wagner units deployed around Bakhmut. It appears as if regular Russian Army units are now complementing the Wagners around Bakhmut, possibly to compensate for Wagner losses.
The Russians have a lot to think about.
3/12/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon March 11 to 12:00 noon March 12, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
March 12
09:52: "Glory to Ukraine! Glory to Georgia"
· Georgian fighter Merab Dvalishvili defeated Russian Peter Yan in the main fight of the UFC Fight Night 221 and called for an end to the war.
08:15: In Prague's, several dozen pro-Russian demonstrators sought to break into the National Museum and tear down Ukrainian flag, with 18 people detained by law enforcement.
· A pro-Russian protest took place in Prague on Saturday, with protesters filling half of Wenceslas Square, holding Czech flags and banners calling for the government's resignation.
00:44: France 24 TV channel has published footage of training of Ukrainian tankers mastering German Leopard tanks.
00:32 The New York Times: The international demining organization HALO Trust believes that areas contaminated with mines and explosives in Ukraine may be the size of the United Kingdom.
· It is noted that although Russian troops, who had previously occupied many fields in southern Ukraine, had long since left, they left behind a huge amount of explosives – some of them simply abandoned, while others were laid down as traps.
March 11
23:52 Moldovan police official website: Moldovan police have warned that provocations are planned tomorrow, March 12, at a pro-Russian rally to be held in Chisinau.
· "The National Police has information that tomorrow, during the protest, it is planned to hold destabilization and riots. In this regard, we ask the organizers and participants to comply with the requirements of the law and not to allow actions that may endanger the lives and health of people, as well as the security of the state," the official statement said.
23:29: Iran has completed its procurement of Russian Su-35 fighter jets. This was reported by Iranian state television IRIB.
· Reuters reports that there are only a few dozen strike aircraft in the Iranian Air Force: both Russian and outdated American models acquired before the Iranian revolution of 1979.
23:25 Azerbaijan accused of military provocation.
· An Iranian military aircraft from 09:44 to 10:26 continuously flew along the Azerbaijan-Iranian state border. He flew 3-5 km from the state border between the two countries, and in some cases over the state border.
23:10: Today, an American nuclear bomber, along with Polish fighters, flew along the Russian border, said Polish Deputy Prime Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.
· "Together we care about the security of NATO's eastern flank," the politician said on Twitter.
21:04 The Telegraph: Poland is set to build the largest land army in Europe.
· "The criminal attack carried out by the Russian Federation aimed at the Ukraine and unpredictable nature of Putin means that we need to further accelerate the modernization of equipment," said Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.
· The list of military equipment that Poland plans to order is shown in the infographic above.
20:44: The company https://www.favbet.ua/ appeals to the Ukrainian media not to disseminate false information about sanctions.
· Favbet is not on the sanctions lists, as it operates exclusively in Ukraine and in a number of European Union countries – Croatia, Romania and Malta.
· Favbet, as a leading market operator, operates legally in Ukraine under valid Ukrainian licenses. No sanctions have been imposed on the Favbet group of companies.
20:11 La Nacion: Pope Francis is ready to visit Kiev, but only if he then goes to Moscow.
· "I'll go to either or none," he said.
15:40 Firstpost: Pakistan has offered to transfer T-80UD to Ukraine and is also helping Ukraine with ammunition.
· According to the publication, the Pakistani leadership is considering such an opportunity in exchange for receiving Western military assistance.
14:15 Bloomberg: The Pentagon will request $170 billion, including to replace weapons sent to Ukraine.
· According to an internal budget document, the Pentagon is asking for $170 billion for the new fiscal year to replace ammunition supplied to Ukraine, as well as weapons such as long-range missiles, which may be needed in the event of a conflict with China.
14:06: The Italian government is organizing a conference on April 26 to restore Ukraine with the participation of Italian companies, says Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.
13:51: Acting Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen expects the first Leopard 1 tanks to depart in Ukraine during the spring, according to the press service of the Danish Ministry of Defense.
· They also noted that the government had started cooperation with Germany and the Netherlands in order to transfer at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine.
13:22: The U.S. Army is already implementing a plan to send M1 Abrams tanks into Ukraine and is keen to deliver them as soon as possible, Army supply chief Doug Bush said.
· "The Army already has a plan and we're executing it. We just can't talk about its details," Bush said.
NATIONAL
March 12
11:04 Ukrenergo: Due to network restrictions with an increase in electricity consumption during the day, emergency outages are possible in the Kharkiv region.
· In other regions, energy consumption restrictions were not applied, no limits were proved. The volumes of electricity produced in the system are sufficient to cover the needs of all consumers.
07:09 General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· Over the past day, the Russians launched 12 air and 5 missile strikes, 2 of which - on the city of Zaporozhye. Russian troops used the S-300 air defense system on civilian infrastructure. As a result, one building was destroyed. There are no civilian casualties or injuries
· In addition, they carried out 56 attacks from the MLRS. One of them is on the civilian infrastructure of the city of Kherson. There are civilian casualties: two killed and three wounded.
· The main purpose of the Russian military during the past day remained attempts to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
· To this end, the Wons focused their main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Mariinsky and Shakhtarsky directions. Thanks to professional and coordinated actions, our defenders repulsed 92 Russian attacks in these areas.
· During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces inflicted 6 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation, and units of rocket troops and artillery hit 4 areas of concentration of Russian personnel, one ammunition depot and 2 places of deployment of EW stations - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
00:54: A unique monument to Taras Shevchenko was opened on the territory of the Industrial Park "Western Ukrainian Industrial HUB" in the Velykoberezovytsia community of Ternopil region.
· The pedestal is made in the style of "industrial", and the bust itself is restored after a downtime. Many years ago, he was found in the warehouses of the old Soviet giant enterprise.
March 11
22:28 Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council: The defense of Bakhmut will be useful for Ukraine and its army, as a huge number of Russian troops are being destroyed there.
· "As Syrsky reported, everything is dotted with the corpses of these Russians, the Wagnerians, no one takes them away, because no one needs them," Danilov said.
21:22: Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny had a telephone conversation with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, General Mark Milley.
· "I dwelled in detail on the issue of Ukraine's defense needs. We are talking about the supply of ammunition and equipment.
· He stressed the need to strengthen the capabilities of the air defense system," Zaluzhny wrote.
20:59 Zelenskyy explained the reason for the sanctions against bookmakers.
· "There are new sanctions step against individuals and legal entities associated with the evil state. The relevant decree has been promulgated. These are more than 280 companies and 120 people who, through schemes with the gambling business, worked against Ukraine, withdrew funds from our country and financed various Russian combinations. The decision has been prepared for some time, it has been thoroughly worked out and closes schemes worth tens of billions. And this is not the last such decision. Ukraine will defend itself everywhere. And by all civilized means."
18:20 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on March 11:
· "During the current day, the enemy launched 12 air and 2 missile strikes on the city of Zaporozhye.
· The strike from the S-300 air defense system took place on a civilian infrastructure.
· As a result, one building was destroyed. There are no civilian casualties or injuries."
· "The enemy also carried out 34 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.
· One of them is on the civilian infrastructure of the city of Kherson. There are civilian casualties, two killed and three wounded."
· "The Russian criminal authorities continue measures to forcibly passport the population of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
· Thus, the military leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation necessarily requires all mobilized from the previously occupied territories to sign long-term contracts for military service in the Russian army."
· "The occupiers are trying to force the mobilized to give up the so-called "l/dpr passport" in favor of Russian citizenship.
· Otherwise, servicemen and members of their families are threatened with the refusal of all established payments and social protection provided for servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation."
· "During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces inflicted 6 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.
· Units of rocket troops and artillery struck 4 areas of concentration of enemy personnel, one ammunition depot and 2 places of deployment of electronic warfare stations of the invaders."
17:49 Air Force spokesman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The Patriot complex can shoot down not only ballistic missiles, but also Russian aircraft at a distance of up to 150 kilometers.
· According to him, the presence of Patriot or SAMP/T complexes will be able to drive away enemy aircraft from the borders of Ukraine.
17:38 Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. During the full-scale invasion, the Russian Federation destroyed more than 152 thousand residential buildings and more than 60 thousand infrastructure facilities.
· He added that 66,300 criminal proceedings have been opened so far regarding crimes committed by Russian servicemen. About 80% of them are violations of the laws and customs of war. According to Klymenko, these crimes are documented and handed over to the SBU for further investigation and prosecution of Russian war criminals. Also, the documented crimes are transferred to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, which on their basis prepares materials for international courts.
14:37: Since February, about 28 thousand Ukrainians have applied to join the "Offensive Guard", said Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Ihor Klymenko.
· "Of course, not everyone gets into these units because it's pretty tough in selection. We have already started training of almost all units at the training grounds of our country and not everyone can stand there," the minister said.
· Klymenko added that the units of the "Offensive Guard" have already been actually formed and an additional recruitment of volunteers is underway to form a reserve for the future.
14:21: Commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky once again visited Bakhmut.
· "It is necessary to gain time for the accumulation of reserves and the beginning of the spring counteroffensive, which is just around the corner," the general said following the next trip to Bakhmut.
13:08: In the Black Sea, 5 Russian ships are on alert, of which 1 is a carrier of cruise missiles "Kalibr", the total volley of which is 7 missiles.
· According to the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians also deployed 1 ship in the Sea of Azov, and 7 in the Mediterranean, of which 3 are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles, the total volley of which is 20 missiles.
Mordor - russia
March 12
07:33 The PRC has appointed a new Minister of Defense, General Li Shanfu, who has been under US sanctions since 2018, for cooperation with Russia.
· Lee was added to the sanctions list for participating in transactions with individuals associated with Russia's defense or intelligence sectors. At that time, he was the director of an agency that was engaged in the planning, development and purchase of weapons for the People's Liberation Army, and became a target for his participation in the acquisition of SU-35 fighters and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia.
06:25 Institute for the Study of War: The Kremlin has lost control of the Russian infospace.
· Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War claimed that Vladimir Putin has ceded control over Russia's information space and cannot act decisively to restore it. Among the key conclusions of the Institute's specialists are also:
· Russian troops made no confirmed advance within Bakhmut on March 11.
· Ukrainian sources claim that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced in the direction of Svatove.
· Russian troops are further establishing fortifications in the Zaporozhye region.
· Russian mobilized continue to complain that commanders treat them badly and use them as a cheap force to patch holes in existing formations.
March 11
19:59 Belarusian opposition leader Azarov: Lukashenko and Putin hate each other.
· "I believe that Lukashenko is not going to Iran for Putin's business. In fact, Lukashenko hates Putin, and Putin hates Lukashenko. They are forced partners. Lukashenko travels only on Belarusian affairs," Azarov said.
· According to the opposition leader, Lukashenko is looking for markets for Belarusian goods.
19:19: " Lukashenko can go kiss a dog’s sraku" (vagina)
· This is how the officer of the 95th Air Assault Brigade Yuri Kochevenko described the possibility of an open war of Belarus against Ukraine
16:52 Bloomberg: Putin may attend the G20 summit, which will take place in India on December 1, 2023.
· According to journalists, the Kremlin is already adjusting the schedule of the Russian president so that he can go to the forum. However, a final decision on this matter has not yet been made.
KHARKIV
March 12
11:39 Kharkiv RMA: Last day, under mortar and artillery Russian fire were areas of the settlements of Krasnaya Zorya, Krasne, Ogirtsevo, Novomlinsk, Biennial, Zapadne, Gryanykivka and others
· Russian shelling damaged private residential buildings and utility buildings in the village of Zapadne. There are no civilian casualties.
March 11
22:47: Metro in Kharkiv will resume passenger transportation after three days of inactivity. Citizens will be able to move around the city by subway from March 12
13:36: The SBU detained a collaborator who organized the broadcast of Russian TV channels during the occupation of Kupyansk.
· The attacker was a local resident. While in office, he organized the broadcasting of central Russian TV channels on the frequencies of Ukrainian terrestrial digital television.
· For this, he was appointed "acting leading specialist of the broadcasting department of the communications and mass communications department" of the occupation administration of the Russian Federation.
DONETSK
March 12
11:54 Donetsk RMA: On March 11, Russians killed 2 residents of Donetsk region: in Konstantinovka and Tonenko.
· Another 4 people in the region were injured.
11:15 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region.
08:32 Social Networks: Explosions are reported in the temporarily occupied Donetsk.
March 11
20:28 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region,
16:35 Operational Command East: Over the past day, near Bakhmut, the Russian army lost 535 soldiers killed and wounded.
· Also during the day, 157 shellings, 53 combat clashes were recorded there, the Russians lost 221 soldiers killed and 314 wounded.
13:41 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Mariupol of Donetsk region.
12:52 Donetsk RMA: On March 10, Russians killed 2 residents of Donetsk region — in the village of Krasnohorivka
· Another 14 people in the region were injured.
12:29 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Sloviansk, Donetsk region.
ZAPORIZHIA
March 11
23:51: Today, in one of the private houses in the village of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhia district, because of the detonation of an explosive object, two boys, born in 2012 and 2019, received injuries of varying severity.
· Police found that children on the street found and brought home an unknown elongated cylindrical object. During the game, he detonated.
16:19 Zaporizhia RMA: The enemy targeted the critical infrastructure of the Zaporizhia region with S-300 missiles beforehand. They were sent to the life support facility of Zaporozhye.
15:31: Zaporizhia RMA confirmed explosions in the city and urged all residents to stay in safe places.
15:23 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhia.
KHERSON
March 12
10:47 Operational Command South: The Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region are trying to push the Russians back at least 20 km from the water.
· "Enemy positions can unfold in the territories from which it reaches the Right Bank. The defense forces are working to knock them out of the strip at least 20 km from the water cut to stop or critically reduce these attacks. Nevertheless, the enemy is trying to look for ways to locate weapons even among the houses of local residents on the temporarily occupied Left Bank," Gumeniuk said.
10:19 Kherson RMA: The Russians attacked the Kherson region 29 times, firing 156 shells at peaceful settlements of the region.
· The Russian army shelled residential areas of Kherson three times. Shells hit the territory of a communal enterprise, private and apartment buildings. 3 people were killed, another 3 residents of the Kherson region were injured of varying severity.
March 11
18:07 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson,
15:15 Kherson RMA: Today's "arrival" in Kherson was in the parking lot of one of the shopping centers.
· As a result, 3 people were killed and 3 others were injured.
12:53 Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
12:21 Kherson RMA: In Kherson, on the Mykolaiv highway, according to preliminary data, two people were injured by debris. One of the victims died on the spot.
· In Kherson, shelling by Russians killed three people and wounded two others.
· At the site of an enemy strike on the Mykolaiv highway in Kherson, the work of emergency services continues
MYKOLIAV
March 12
10:04 Mykolaiv RMA: Today at 00:45-00:49 the Russians launched artillery shelling on the city of Ochakov.
· There was a fire of cars, damaged private houses, high-rise buildings. There are no casualties.
KYIV
March 12
09:11: In Kyiv, the heat supply disrupted by the missile strike of the Russian Federation has been fully restored, said the head of the Kyiv City Military Administration Sergei Popko.
· According to him, electricity and water supply is supplied to all districts of Kyiv, and the city's infrastructure is operating normally.
March 11
18:52: 36 illegal new buildings were found on the territory of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra.
· The State Audit Service recorded numerous violations during the audit of the National Reserve "Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra". This was reported on Saturday, March 11, by the publication LB.ua.
17:28 DTEK: Stabilization outages in Kyiv have been canceled.
· Ukrenergo lifted the restrictions, which allowed to restore power supply to all residents of the capital at 16:45," the message says.
21:59: The work of district heating in Kyiv was resumed in full, said the mayor of the capital Vitali Klitschko.
· "Utilities are still working to remove air in the heating systems of individual houses.
· Electricity and water supply in the capital also operates as usual," Klitschko wrote.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka