Bob Homans March 12

20220313

   Ukraine – 3/12 Sitrep
    Metropolitan Opera & Alexander Ovechkin
    New Yorker Interview with Stephen Kotkin -
    Author of a 3-Part Biography of Stalin
    By: Robert Homans
    March 12, 2022
    3/12 Sitrep –

As usual, my comments in this section are in Bold Face.

Former Ukrainian President Poroshenko announced that he is working under the command of President Zelenskyy.  Poroshenko volunteered and joined Kyiv’s self-defense force.  We wonder whether former president would volunteer to serve America and take orders from President Biden if the US was under attack.   It is also worth mentioning that Poroshenko is under indictment for treason, initiated by Ukraine’s General Prosecutor.   As to Poroshenko’s possible motivation to serve his country under Pres. Zelenskyy, it's worth quoting U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris, when she said recently while in Poland, “A friend in need is a friend indeed.”

Yesterday the environs around Kyiv remained under artillery, rocket, and cruise missile attacks.  For the first time since the start of the invasion two cruise missiles made it past Kyiv’s air defenses and landed in Podil on an administrative building and a bank branch.  Podil is located just north of the government blocks and is part of the center.   When we’re in Kyiv, Podil is the District of Kyiv where we live, but we live some distance from where the rockets appear to have landed.   Before WW-II, Podil was the old Jewish ghetto of Kyiv.   Today, Podil is like a combination of New York City’s Greenwich Village, an attractive place for upper income households, and South of Market in San Francisco, the site of old industrial buildings that has recently become a prestigious business address, including Twitter.

Ground skirmishes took place in Bychanski and Brovary counties outside of the city.  The satellite communities of Irpin and Vyshorod were hit by artillery shelling.  In Fastiv county an electrical substation was hit by rocket fire and repairs are underway today.  Invaders have tried taking private parking garages outside of Kyiv but were repulsed.  Ukrainian drones destroyed an armored electronic jamming unit in Makariv.  Russian rockets set ablaze a frozen warehouse in Kvitneve (near Brovary).  Satellite photos from US Maxar Technologies show that the 30-mile Russian column outside of Kyiv has dispersed and is hiding in villages and forests.  This is an ideal situation for Ukraine’s partisans.

Bychanski, Irpin and Bucha, are adjacent to each other, and each is an upper middle class satellite city of Kyiv.  They are separated from Kyiv by a river and directly accessible to Kyiv via two roads, both including bridges across the river.  I believe that Ukraine has blown both bridges so, the question becomes - where the Russians can go next?  They appear to be in another cul-de-sac.  Vyshorod is located north of Kyiv near a large hydroelectric dam that spans the Dnieper River.  We have family that lives in Vyshorod, but they have departed because of the shelling.  Fastiv (Fastov) is south of Kyiv.

What Russia has succeeded in doing in these 3 cities, and others, is destroy the lives of relatively prosperous residents.   Perhaps that is Russia’s objective in attacking these cities, namely destroying lives, because they don’t seem to have much strategic value.  

Part of the 30-mile Russian column is likely hiding in a forest near where we live, and where I liked to go cross-country skiing.  This the same forest where, in 2004, the Ukrainian government mobilized tanks to move against the Orange Revolution protesters, an attack that never happened.   If Maxar Technologies, an open source system of satellite photography, then the Ukrainian Army knows where they are.

Chernihiv faced sporadic artillery, aerial, and rocket attacks all day yesterday.  Ground skirmishes took place south of Chernihiv on routes leading to Kyiv.

Sumy reported similar conditions to Chernihiv.  Self-defense forces captured three tanks in working condition and one self-propelled 150 mm artillery piece.  The local government agreed on civilian evacuation routes from Sumy, Lebedyna, Trostiantsa, Velykoi Pusarivky and Konotop with the invaders.  We will report tomorrow whether civilians were able to leave.   All of these cities are located east and northeast of Kyiv.

Civilian airports were hit by cruise missiles in Kropivnychki and Kanatove Kirovograd Oblast.    Kirovograd Oblast is located northwest of Krivyi-Rih, the hometown of President Zelenskyy.  Russian forces may be moving around Mykolaiv, in order to eventually launch an assault on Odesa.

Kharkiv faced sporadic bombing all yesterday.  An enemy column was destroyed in Chuhuyev.  Russian forces prevented civilians from leaving Izum yesterday by shelling the escape corridor.

880 civilians evacuated from Enerhodar, Dniprorydnoho and Vasylivky made it to Zaporishia.  Yesterday the invaders took the mayor of Melitopol by force while he was meeting with the municipal administration.  His whereabouts are not known 36 hours after his seizure.  The mayor, Ivan Fedorov, had refused to work with the invaders.  Buses to evacuate Mariupol were not allowed into the city by Russian forces.

Lutsk in Volyn Oblast reported four dead, and six injured after Russian bombing of its airport.  Russian bombers were directed to the airport by a traitor who was captured and is now under arrest facing treason and murder charges.   Separately, in a village near Bela Tsirkva, south of Kyiv, three teenage girls were arrested for putting target markers on Ukrainian assets, to assist in bombing runs by Russian planes.   Under interrogation, they admitted being paid by Russian agents who have been operating in Ukraine since before the start of the war.

The invaders have broken through Ukrainian lines in Luhansk yesterday.  Currently they have 70% of the oblast up from 40% before the start of the invasion.  Before the war started, Russia recognized the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics, with the proviso that the entire territory of both oblasts belonged to the people’s republics, and not simply the portion now under Russian/separatist control.

Russians did not have similar success in Donetsk Oblast managing only to take the city of Volonovakha.  The invaders also targeted a third hospital in Mariupol.  Civilians were not able to evacuate yesterday.  Amongst the civilians in Mariupol are 86 Turkish expats, of which 32 are children.

Mykolaiv city experienced sporadic shelling.  In the village Kandybyne Mykolaiv Oblast invaders would allow a pregnant women to travel to Mykolaiv to deliver her baby.  Doctors from Mykolaiv guided local volunteers through the delivery and mother and baby are alive and resting.  Self- defense forces destroyed a Russian battle group yesterday. 

Theoretically occupied Kherson saw skirmishes of invaders and Ukrainian forces on the city outskirts.  “Theoretically occupied” means that Ukrainians continue to be active within Kherson.  There have been reports that the Russians are trying to organize a “referendum” in Kherson, that would lead to the establishment of a third “people’s republic.”   As is the case with Donetsk and Luhansk, it is likely that these will become an issue in any peace negotiation, with the Russian objective of controlling Territory along the coast of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.

As was the case over the last several days, with the possible exception of the South, the Russians seem to be in places that don’t give much of an opportunity to move forward, while at the same time giving the Ukrainians plenty of opportunity to destroy Russian armor. Ukraine has now captured 30 more Russian tanks, than they’ve lost in actions against the Russians.

What seems to be evident from the videos is that Central Kyiv remains almost completely untouched.   Yesterday, the Kyiv Philharmonic performed on Independence Square.   Ukraine does have very strong air defenses, a significant portion of which is deployed around Kyiv.  At the same time, Irpin and Bucha in the west, and Brovery in the east, are 10 – 15 miles from Kyiv, and both areas are still heavily contested, making it unlikely that Russia can establish a fire base, from which to launch rocket and artillery attacks on Kyiv.   If the objective of surrounding Kyiv is to launch an artillery assault on Kyiv, then the Russians will have to get much closer, and there seems to be limited opportunities to do so other than launching a direct assault likely resulting in heavy Russian casualties.

Metropolitan Opera –

This coming Monday, March 14th, at 6PM EDT, the Metropolitan Opera of New York City will have a special Concert for Ukraine.  In addition to containing more information about the performance, this link to the Met’s web site contains instructions on how to stream the concert live.

Many earlier recipients of this email will now doubt recall that I’ve been critical of the Met for continuing to invite Valery Gergiev and Anna Netrebko to perform, despite their overt support of Vladimir Putin.  Kudos to the Met for putting on this concert, and for “canceling” both Gergiev and Netrebko.

My focus has now turned to Alexander Ovechkin, the star of the Washington Capitals National Hockey League team, who has overtly supported Putin.   The Provence of Alberta, where many Canadians of Ukrainian heritage live, recently gave Ovechkin a proper welcome, when the Washington Capitals played in both Calgary and Edmonton.   In my opinion the NHL should indefinitely suspend Ovechkin, along with every other Russian player who has voiced support for Putin.

Interview With Stephen Kotkin, Author of a 3-Part Biography of Stalin –

This is a fascinating New Yorker interview about the current crisis in Ukraine, and about Putin, with Stephen Kotkin, author of a 3-Part Biography of Stalin, of which the first 2 parts are available.   Kotkin argues that George Kennan was wrong, when he said that the US should never have allowed NATO to expand, and that Russia’s ambitions to be a great power has always exceeded its abilities to become one, and he describes Russia under Putin as a “military police dictatorship.”