Bob Homans March 1

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Ukraine – 3/1/23 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
March 1, 2023

“Next Year in Moscow”   A new Economist podcast, where Arkady Ostrovsky interviews Russians who have left Russia due to the war or they are about to leave –

For Russians opposed to Vladimir Putin, everything changed the moment they awoke to news of the invasion of Ukraine a year ago. They felt a range of emotions: pain, fury and shame. And they had to figure out what to do next.  The Economist’s Arkady Ostrovsky has been speaking to them, because their stories help solve the mystery of why this senseless war began – and how it might end. New episodes will be released weekly on Saturdays. For full access to print, digital and audio editions, as well as exclusive live events, subscribe to The Economist at economist.com/moscowoffer Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Worth listening to.

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

Yesterday’s Webinar

Yesterday’s webinar for our recipients had a maximum of 61 attendees.   All of the reviews were very positive.  As a result, we plan to do another in a month or two, perhaps during Ukraine’s next offensive.   Some observations:

·       Vladimir Putin was never mentioned.  Not even once.  Russia was mentioned a few times.   There is one thing that Putin hates, above all else – to be ignored.

·       There was very little discussion about military matters.

·       Instead, much of the discussion was how difficult it is to understand what is happening today, without understanding Euromaidan and the Revolution of Dignity.   Almost everything taking place in Ukraine today, with civil society, the military, leadership, volunteering (in no particular order of importance), derives from Euromaidan.

·       Attendees came from all over the United States, Canada, Iceland, Europe and Ukraine.  We thank everyone who was able to attend.

A recording of the webinar will be available in the coming days.  If you’d like a copy, please send a request by email.

News From the Battlefield

“Reporting From Ukraine” covers new events in and around Bakhmut.   There have been new HIMARS strikes against Russian ammunition dumps, timed to follow Russia’s announcement that they’re supplying additional artillery shells to the Wagners who have been assaulting Bakhmut.  Personally, I cannot remember any report of HIMARS being used in the Bakhmut Theater.   He also says that most of the Ukrainian Army has withdrawn from the center of the city, and they are likely being re-deployed to the flanks where Russians are trying to surround the city.   At the  same time, according to the New York Times, Ukraine has decided to send additional troops to the Bakhmut Theater.

Vulhedar - The New York Times has a separate article about the tank battles in and around Vulhedar, where the Russians have apparently been routed.   The article describes that many of the Ukrainian tank commanders are young, with limited pre-war experience.   Many of Ukraine’s more experienced tank commanders are currently in England or Poland, receiving training on Challenger II and Leopard 2 tanks respectively.

Ukraine’s Drone Attack – There is little news of the damage that Ukraine’s drone attack against Russia, that took place yesterday.  One of the drones got within 60 miles of Moscow, meaning that the drone flew a distance equivalent from the East Coast of the U.S. to Ohio, before it was engaged.

3/1/23 Sitrep

Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon February 28 to 12:00 noon March 1, 2023

Abbreviations:

RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine

RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders

INTERNATIONAL

March 1

08:49 Sky News: Chinese satellite company Spacety has provided aerial photographs to Russian Wagnerians.

·       Spacety, which is based in Beijing and is headquartered in Luxembourg, is a space company specializing in small satellites and satellite services. Spacety was blacklisted by the United States.

08:24: Serbia handed over 3500 missiles to Ukraine for the Grad MLRS, Defense Minister Milos Vučević said.

·       The transit of ammunition was carried out through Turkey and Slovakia.

07:05 Sky News:  Chinese satellite company Spacety provided aerial photographs to Russian Wagnerians.

·       Spacety, which is based in Beijing and is headquartered in Luxembourg, is a space company specializing in small satellites and satellite services. Spacety was blacklisted by the United States.

·       Earlier, Spacety stated that it adheres to international sanctions against Russia and does not maintain any ties with this country after the restrictions were imposed.

06:35: The United States says China spends billions of dollars to spread "poisonous disinformation that coincides with Russia's position on Ukraine

·       James Rubin, coordinator of the Center for Global Engagement, said Russia and China are spending billions of dollars to manipulate information, and added that Beijing operates on a global scale and spends more than Moscow. According to him, China repeats and spreads Russia's assertion that the war "unleashed NATO."

00:40: The United States found no violations in the use of weapons handed over to Ukraine, said Storch, inspector general of the country's Ministry of Defense.

·       According to him, the auditors continue to work, including consideration of all appeals received to the hotline, and so far have no evidence of abuse.

February 28

23:18: A test site with a fence on the border with Russia is being built in Finland, according to the Finnish border service.

·       In March, it is planned to start building a road for border patrols and installing a fence, and therefore setting up a technical control system. The work is expected to be completed by the end of June.

23:00 espreso: World media about Ukraine February 28:

·       The New York Times:

o   The flow of tanks promised to Ukraine is more like a jet: some countries have found that the tanks in their arsenal do not actually work or do not have spare parts. Political leaders have faced unexpected resistance in their own coalitions and even from defense ministries.

·       The Washington Post:

o   Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. would impose sanctions on Chinese companies or individuals if they provided lethal support to Russia's military efforts in Ukraine or violate Western sanctions. He stressed that Washington would act "without hesitation" if Beijing moves beyond the non-lethal support he said Chinese state-owned companies provide to Russia and starts supplying lethal equipment.

·       BBC:

o   The Russians continue to blame Ukraine for the drone crash in the Moscow region, and Moscow has also accused Ukraine of being behind attacks on Russian military infrastructure during the war, but has not confirmed Kyiv so. Russia's Defense Ministry also said its fighter jets participated in an exercise in the country's western airspace on Tuesday, hours after airspace over St. Petersburg was closed due to reports of an unidentified object.

20:02 CNN: The Ukrainian military's training on the Patriot missile system, which takes place at Fort Still, Oklahoma, will soon end.

·       The training of the Ukrainian military continues not only in the United States, but throughout Europe.

19:30 Ministry of Energy of Ukraine: The Government of Sweden has decided to contribute almost $ 30 million to the Energy Support Fund of Ukraine.

·       "In addition, Sweden will allocate funds to support the IAEA mission operating at all Ukrainian nuclear power plants," the message says.

18:35 espreso: Serbia agrees that Kosovo functions as a separate state, says Ishchenko, head of the Balkan Observer project.

·       The Serbian authorities agreed that Kosovo can join any independent organization - meaning that Belgrade agrees that Kosovo functions as an independent state.

·       "This agreement was a breakthrough in establishing normal relations between Serbia and independent Kosovo. This agreement is a framework, there will be additional agreements. Now this framework looks like Belgrade agrees to the existence of Kosovo as an independent state.

16:12: The Canadian Ministry of Defense showed how the Ukrainian military is trained to control a Leopard 2A4 tank in Poland.

14:41: German concern Rheinmetall has begun supplying automated intelligence systems to Ukraine, the company said in a statement.

·       Rheinmetall also does not disclose the amount of the contract.

14:11 Reuters: Lockheed Martin plant will double HIMARS production after the success of systems in Ukraine.

·       It is planned to increase the production of HIMARS launchers from 48 to 96 per year.

NATIONAL

March 1

11:00: Ukraine loses almost UAH 1.5 million per hour due to the shadow gambling business.

·       This is 12 billion hryvnias per year, which do not fall into the country's budget. Such figures were announced by the head of the economic counterintelligence of the Security Service of Ukraine Artem Shiloh at a meeting of the special commission of the Verkhovna Rada.

·       According to him, the total market volume in Ukraine is 180 billion. UAH. and over the past year, the SBU, together with the BEB, managed to bring 50% of the players out of the shadows. This causes fierce opposition from companies, especially those that are guided by the Russian Federation. Soon, law enforcement officers are planning a series of measures to eliminate the remaining black game schemes.

09:30 British intelligence: The Russian army began launching Iranian kamikaze drones "Shahed" from the Bryansk region.

·       "The second launch pad will give the Russians a different direction of attack, closer to Kiev. This is likely to reduce the time spent in the air over Ukraine and may further stretch the Ukrainian air defense system," the British Ministry of Defense said.

09:14: On the night of February 28 to March 1, Russia attacked Ukraine from the north with Shahed-type strike drones.

·       According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, all four kamikaze UAVs were destroyed by air defense forces and means.

08:00: Seven power units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants have been completely converted to fuel of the American company Westinghouse Electric Sweden AB, - NNEGC Energoatom.

07:08: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: In the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions last day, Ukrainian defenders repelled more than 85 Russian attacks.

·       Over the past day, Russian troops launched 2 missile and 12 air strikes, including the use of 2 Shahed-136 UAVs. These drones were shot down by Ukrainian soldiers. The enemy also carried out 68 attacks from the MLRS. Civilians were injured.

·       Once again, the evacuation of certain categories of citizens from the temporarily occupied Crimea is recorded, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       "Recently, servicemen of Russian troops stationed in Perevalny have been sending their families to Russia," the report said.

·       Over the past day, the aviation of the Defense Forces has inflicted 11 strikes on areas of concentration of the Russian military, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       And rocket scientists and artillerymen hit 9 areas of concentration of manpower and the area of concentration of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Federation, as well as 2 positions of anti-aircraft missile systems, an EW station and an ammunition depot.

February 28

22:40 Operational Command South:  All prerequisites indicate that within two days the enemy can carry out a massive missile attack. Given the timing of the previous attack and the activity of enemy aircraft, drones and shaheed - all this may indicate preparations for a massive new attack by the enemy.

21:44: The National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption has added Metro Cash & Carry to the list of international sponsors of the war.

·       This decision was made in connection with the position of the company's management to continue its activities in Russia.

·       Metro has served as a wholesaler to thousands of small stores throughout Ukraine.

21:30: In Ukraine, the police blocked 18 channels related to PMC "Redan".

·       This was announced by Head of the Juvenile Police Department of Ukraine Vasyl Bohdan.

·       "The artificial spread of such a subculture is an attempt by Russian propagandists to conduct another information and psychological operation and involve adolescents in illegal activities," the message says.

19:12: Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered an address to the Board of Directors of the US National Association of Manufacturers.

·       "Mechanical engineering in Ukraine, agricultural processing in Ukraine, production of weapons in Ukraine, in particular modern drones, IT in Ukraine... This is a wide space for victories.

·       I urged American business to prepare for these victories now, to come to Ukraine now," the president wrote.

18:24 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 February 28:

·       "The Russian Federation continues to focus its main efforts on offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions.

·       During the day, the enemy inflicted missile and 2 air strikes. He carried out more than 20 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems."

·       "In Enerhodar, Zaporizhia region, the Russian occupiers continue to put pressure on the civilian population, in particular, due to restrictions on the supply of heat supply and hot water to their homes.

·       After the mass layoffs, there is a shortage of specialists at a nuclear power plant, which is why the invaders are forced to hire people without education and experience."

·       "Recently, the Russian occupiers have become more actively engaged in looting in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, in particular, in the city of Oleshky.

·       A special object of attention of the invaders are vehicles."

·       "The aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in a day inflicted 3 strikes on the areas of concentration of the occupiers.

·       Units of rocket troops and artillery, in turn, struck the area of concentration of manpower and the area of concentration of weapons and military equipment of the enemy, as well as 2 positions of the anti-aircraft missile systems of the occupiers.

18:08: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Secretary General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Mathias Korman.

·       "The opening of the OECD office in Ukraine will be an important step in our cooperation," the president wrote after the meeting.

16:56: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan.

·       "During the meeting, he said that the terrible crimes committed by the Russian occupiers in the territories of Ukraine should not go unpunished. The perpetrators of them must be brought to justice," the president wrote.

16:40: Russians forcibly deported more than 16 thousand Ukrainian children from the occupied regions. Only 307 children were returned back.

·       This was announced by Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin during a meeting with the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights.

16:26 SBU press service: The SBU exposed agents who sold personal data of Ukrainians to Russian citizens.

·       The attackers created a specialized Internet platform and a Telegram bot, into which they poured passport data, phone numbers and cars belonging to residents of different regions of Ukraine.

·       According to operational data, among the potential customers of Internet services were representatives of Russian special services who were looking for confidential information about servicemen of the Defense Forces.

15:26 Operational Command South: There are already 17 enemy ships in the Black Sea, including 5 launch vehicles, including 2 underwater ones. The total volley of "Calibers" can reach 32 missiles.

12:56: Since September, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shot down about 650 enemy missiles and the same number of kamikaze drones, says Yurii Ignat, spokesman of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       Yuri Ignat added that we are talking about high-precision weapons - "Iskanders", "Calibers" and X-101. According to him, the enemy can still produce these missiles, but production volumes cannot provide costs.

12:41: The parties of Prytula, Zelensky and Klitschko are the leaders.

·       This is evidenced by a new survey by the US National Democratic Institute (NDI) among the population of Ukraine.

·       Thus, the party headed by Serhiy Prytula is sympathetic to 49% of respondents, the presidential party "Sluha Narodu" - 41%.

·       27% of Ukrainians belong to the party "Vitaliy Klitschko's UDAR" very positively or positively. The lowest positive attitude of Ukrainians to OPFL (6%).

12:24 Ukrenergo: There is no shortage of power in the power system and is not currently predicted.

·       Yesterday, the power supply of Odessa and the Odessa district was restored. Currently, Odesa is being healed under temporary schemes, so small restrictions are possible by the end of the week.

·       The situation in the frontline regions remains difficult. In Kharkiv and Sumy regions, as a result of shelling, there is damage to the networks of regional power distribution companies and de-energization of settlements.

12:08 Voice of America - Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine: Ukraine needs assault aircraft: first of all, A10, Thunderbolt II aircraft.

·       The next three months will be quite active, they will determine the further course of events, said Kirill Budanov.

·       "The sooner the Russians leave Ukraine, the more chances they will have in theory to maintain their territory in more or less similar borders," he stressed.

·       Exchanges for the return of prisoners of war continue, and about 2 thousand people have already been returned, Kirill Budanov said.

·       "90% of all prisoners of war were captured by the Russians in the early days. About 40% of those held hostage are civilians," he said.

·       The end of the war at the first stage is access to the borders in 1991, at the second — the creation of a security strip around Ukraine, at least from the Russian side to a depth of 100 kilometers or more.

Mordor - russia

March 1

10:45 AM CNN: Lukashenka and Xi Jinping meet in China

10:00 am Institute for the Study of War: Lukashenko may facilitate schemes to circumvent sanctions between Russia and China during his official visit to China

·       Analysts also believe that the Kremlin is likely to use Lukashenko in its information operations to achieve negotiations on favorable terms for Russia and delays in the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine.

·       Russia is stepping up information operations to slow down arms supplies to Ukraine – ISW.

·       "An obvious increase in the number of false warnings about the biochemical and nuclear threat accompanies a coordinated Russian information operation using false flags, which accuses Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova," analysts said.

February 28

23:56: Russian propagandists try to destabilize Ukraine through the teenage movement of mass fights "Redan".

·       Yaroslav Shanko, Deputy Head of the Juvenile Prevention Department of the National Police of Ukraine.

·       Russian propagandists through the teenage movement of mass fights "Redan" are trying to destabilize Ukraine. Russian special services, having provoked clashes between teenagers in Moscow, began to use such a model of provocation and unrest on the territory of Ukraine.

·       In two days, about 30 youth gatherings took place in different regions of Ukraine. The police quickly worked and did not allow clashes. Also during this period, more than 700 people were invited to the department and police departments, most of them minors. The police have already blocked almost 20 channels of such groups, which were created to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.

23:36 espreso: The Russian Federation reported explosions and fire at the airfield in Yeisk.

·       Russian Yeisk authorities said the explosions in the city were "planned" because military-tactical exercises were allegedly taking place in the area.

·       Instead, local media and social media reports on the sounds of explosions and fire. Pro-Kremlin channels write that the military airfield in Yeisk, previously, was attacked by a drone. Others were a rocket, or two.

23:03: A 13-year-old administrator of the Tg-channel "PMC Redan Cherkasy" was detained in Cherkasy.

·       The guy said that he wanted to arrange a "hype", and now he regrets what he has done.

10:50: The last few days, social media has exploded with reports of a previously unknown PMC "Redan".

·       What is this subculture, how does it affect adolescents and how can it be associated with Russian special services?

·       Read more in the infographics of the Center for Countering Disinformation

·       https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQAVsgGMw%2FnM0U7IdXernlHeNLMRhVkfZLUEgubVC%2FeCdYxkWyBoIxqkmiK8H3gM&mi=132318

21:58: A military assembly was announced in the unrecognized "Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublika".

·       This was reported by the press service of the Ministry of Defense of the self-proclaimed republic.

·       It is noted that men under 55 years old can participate in the meeting, who are guaranteed "monetary and material support, accommodation and food."

21:16 Social Networks: An explosion was reportedly heard in Russia's yeisk. (The city is located on the opposite shore of the AZOV sea from Ukraine and is the base for Russian planes bombing Ukrainian positions in the Donbas – ed.)

17:29: Putin signs a law suspending Russia's participation in a treaty to reduce strategic offensive weapons.

·       The relevant document is published on the legal information portal.

14:55 Russian Media: Not far from Murmansk, a Russian Federation crashed a Mi-8 helicopter.

·       "The helicopter crashed near the Lavozero site. There were eight people on board. At least four were injured."

13:41 Russian Media: Photo from the crash site of the UJ-22 Airborne strike drone one one hundred meters from the Voskresensk gas compressor station in the Kolomna district of the Moscow region.

·       The governor of the Moscow region, Andrei Vorobyov, confirmed the information and said that no one was injured in the village of Gubastovo.

KHARKIV

March 1

10:30 Kharkiv RMA: Russian troops shelled Chuguev in the Kharkiv region this morning. Three "arrivals" were recorded.

·       As a result of the morning shelling of Chuguev, a 52-year-old man and a 13-year-old boy were injured.

February 28

15:42: The SBU detained a local deputy in Kharkiv region who ordered the conversion of Ukrainian hospitals into Russian military hospitals.

·       The enemy's henchman was a deputy of the Kupyansk district council, who previously headed the city health department.

·       After the seizure of the district center, he supported the Russian invaders and voluntarily offered them his help in organizing the treatment of wounded rashists.

13:56 Kharkiv RMA: Yesterday, as a result of shelling in the village of Vovchanski Khutory, 8 residential buildings and business buildings were damaged. No casualties.

·       In Kupyansk, a private residential building was damaged as a result of Russian shelling.

·       Today, in the village of Volokhiv Yar, a 60-year-old man blew up on an anti-personnel mini "Petal". Hospitalized with a shrapnel wound.

LUHANSK

March 1

11:30 Luhansk  RMA: In Luhansk region,  the number of Russian attacks by kamikaze drones "Lancet" has increased.

·       Gaidai also said that the enemy was trying to attack Bilohorivka and the Kremin direction (Nevsky and Makiivka), and de-occupied settlements along the front line were also being shelled.

DONETSK

March 1

11:09 Donetsk  RMA: Last day, Russians conducted shelling in the Volnovakha, Donetsk, Gorlovka and Lysychansk directions.

·       According to him, in the Volnovakha direction, one person died in Velyka Novoselka, Vuhledar and Novoukrainka were under fire.

February 28

15:20 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Pokrovsky district of Donetsk region.

DNIPRO

March 1

07:51 Dnipro RMA: At night, the Russian army attacked the Nikopol district eight times.

·       "Four communities were under enemy fire from heavy artillery: Nikopolska, Marganetska, Myrivska and Chervonohryhorivska. Fortunately, without the dead and injured."

February 28

21:05 Dnipro RMA: In the evening, the Russians fired heavy artillery at Nikopol.

·       "There are no dead or wounded. The consequences of the attack are still being clarified."

KHERSON

March 1

11:42 Kherson  RMA: Over the past day, Russian troops have beaten 86 times in Kherson and the region. 5 people were killed and 7 others were injured.

·       "They beat with MLRS, mortars, artillery, tanks, UAVs and aircraft. The Russian army shelled Kherson 9 times - once again they beat on residential areas of the city," the message says.

February 28

20:16 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

15:12 Kherson  RMA: Today, the Russian army shelled the homes of civilians in Kherson and the region with artillery.

·       As of this hour, it is known that in the Kherson region, in general, due to the strikes of the Russian army, 4 people were killed and 5 were wounded.

MYKOLAIV

March 1

11:19: The SBU detained an FSB agent in Mykolaiv who was scouting foreign weapons bases.

·       It turned out to be a local tactical training instructor of one of the public organizations.

·       According to the investigation, the traitor on his own initiative went to the FSB and offered his assistance in the war against Ukraine. The court chose a measure of restraint in the form of detention.

KYIV

March 1

11:48: An air object was found in the sky over the Kyiv region. In this regard, the work of air defense forces and means is possible, the Kyiv RMA reported.

00:31 Kyiv  RMA: A Russian air object has been recorded in the Kyiv region, the air defense forces are ready to work.

POLTAVA

March 1

08:06 Poltava RMA: Thanks to air defense, at least five Russian drones were shot down on Tuesday night in the Poltava region.

00:17 Poltava RMA: The sounds of explosions heard by residents of the region are the work of air defense. There is a downing of an enemy UAV.

00:06 Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kremenchuk, Poltava region, according to subscribers. Preliminary - the work of air defense.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka

www.ubn.news