Ukraine – 6/8 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
June 8, 2022
My collaborator in Kyiv is busy today. Starting in July, I will also be getting very busy, with paying customers. We’ll see how things go, but hopefully by then Ukraine will be doing to the Russians what the United States did to Great Britain in 1815, in the Battle of New Orleans. Then there won’t be a need for so many emails. One can only hope.
The Latest Denis & ISW
There are 3 reports from Denis, one describing the operations of the multiple-launch rocket systems that Ukraine is receiving from its western supporters, and 2 others describing the current situation in Donbas, with this one being the most recent. In addition, this is the latest ISW Report. As usual Denis and the ISW Report should be looked at together. ISW has more information about the Kherson Theater, especially the continuing Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson City.
Also this is a report reviewing the first 100 days of the war, by Michael Kofman (the “Kofman Report. Denis and ISW focus on the day-to-day progress of the war, whereas the Kofman Report provides a broader overview of the challenges that both sides are facing, but concluding that the advantage is currently with Ukraine.
Here are some key points:
· Denis now says that Ukraine has a manpower advantage. While this may come as a surprise to some, it likely reflects the heavy troop losses that Russia has incurred, and the difficulties Russia is having to replace their troop losses. It is also likely that Ukraine’s manpower advantage is compounded by better trained, more experienced troops. The conscripts Russia is bringing in, are likely being committed without the normal training regimen. The fighting around Kyiv showed that Ukrainian troops, with a short amount of training, in most cases performed better than regular Russian troops.
· As Denis points out, the next week or two in the Donbas Theater is going be very challenging for Ukraine. This is especially evident from Denis’ latest report, dated today, showing increased Russian pressure on Sloviansk. Russia retains a significant equipment advantage, especially in artillery and their use of fixed wing aircraft. In the Donbas Theater, the importance of artillery gives Russia a clear advantage.
· The Kofman Report discusses the inability of Russia to sustain offensives, mostly because of depleted battalion tactical groups. Kofman discusses the inability of Russia to cut off Ukrainian forces in the pocket west of Sievordonetsk, a result of depleted force structures. Another example is the failure of Russia to capitalize on a breakthrough at Popasna, southwest of Sievordonetsk. Kofman describes “The Russian military has spent months tiring to hire additional contract servicemen, deploying reservists, and now organizing additional battalions based on existing force structure. Together, these efforts represent a form of shadow mobilization. These are piecemeal efforts that allow the Russian military to sustain itself in the war, but do not address the fundamental deficit in manpower.”
· The Kofman Report states that Ukraine is having similar problems sustaining a counterattack near Kherson, even against depleted Russian forces.
· Russia appears to be taking troops out of the Kharkiv Theater, and transferring them to Donbas, in the hope of claiming a major victory, perhaps including enveloping Ukrainian forces, and securing all of Donbas. They may be doing the same in the Kherson Theater, hoping that building defensive works will hold back the Ukraine counteroffensive, while at the same time transferring troops to Donbas.
· For Ukraine, the South is critical. Ukraine can survive without Donbas; not so if Ukraine loses control of the south. Kherson is critical because it is located near the mouth of the Dnieper River. Ukraine needs to re-establish control of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power complex in Europe. If Ukraine can force Russia to draw off forces from Kherson and move them to Donbas to help ensure a victory there, it is to Ukraine’s advantage.
· In summary, the Kofman Report states, “In reorganizing for a campaign to take the Donbas, the Russian military had pieced together what units were available after taking heavy losses in the first phase of the war. The number of battalions is no longer a meaningful measure since they are smaller unit fragments, pieced together, and unrepresentative of actual fighting strength.”
The Kofman Report, combined with ISW and both reports from Denis, seems to show 2 armies unable to sustain offensives in 2 separate areas of Ukraine, for Russia in Donbas and Ukraine in Kherson. The possible tipping point in Ukraine’s favor, not discussed by Kofman and Denis, and not as much by ISW, is the increasing pressure on Russia by Ukrainian partisans. The partisans may tip the balance in Ukraine’s favor.
Partisans
This is an excellent article from the “Economist” describing increased partisan activity in the temporarily controlled territories, especially in Melitopol but also elsewhere in temporarily occupied Ukraine, in the “People’s Republics” in Donbas, and even in Crimea and even inside Russia itself. Important points from the article:
· Melitopol is the unofficial capital of Ukraine’s resistance. Without control of Melitopol, Russia cannot effectively use the “land bridge” from Crimea, along the shore of the Sea of Azov, to Russia. In the years immediately following Russia’s 2014 occupation of part of Donbas, Melitopol was pro-Russian. Times have changed.
· In Izyum, south of Kharkiv, Russian soldiers were given a poisoned pie by a Ukrainian “babushka.” As reported by monitoring Russian cell phone communications, 8 Russian soldiers died from eating the spiked pie.
· In Kherson, a Russian-controlled airbase has been blown up several times.
· Ukraine began planning for partisan warfare starting in 2015. In January 2015 I attended a meeting with Ukrainians who were involved in the planning for partisan operations.
· Partisan units are made up of regular Army personnel and local volunteers, and they’re coordinated by a unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces called the Special Operations Forces. As Ukraine continues its counteroffensive northwest of Kherson City, one should expect to see more coordinated attacks, involving both regular Ukrainian Army units and partisans.
As the article describes, Russia is using captured personnel data on individual residents of Kherson who have served in the Army, to disrupt partisan operations, by detaining, torturing and murdering suspected partisans.
As these emails have previously reported, Russia does not have enough troops to continuously hold the land bridge, much less Donbas. The regular Ukrainian Army, backed by weapons from the West, may kick the door in on temporarily controlled Ukraine, but it will be the partisans who will forcibly escort the Russians to the exit. I expect that this will likely happen sooner rather than later.
The Importance of Ukraine’s Civil Society – An Example
In a previous email I promised an example of a Ukrainian civil society group in action. This example is from the Ukraine Chapter of the International Coaching Federation (ICF), a world-wide organization of executive coaches, called ICF Global.
My wife is the past President of the ICF-Ukraine Chapter. When she became President, the membership of just over 20 coaches, barely enough to be recognized by ICF as a full-fledged Chapter. When she stepped down as President, there were over 130 members. Then Russia invaded. Members of ICF Ukraine lost a substantial amount of their business; many became refugees. Much of what ICF Ukraine had worked for was placed in jeopardy.
My wife is here in the U.S. Soon after Russia invaded, she contacted ICF Global, at their headquarters in Lexington, Kentucky. She asked ICF Global to make a statement in support of Ukraine and condemning Russia for its invasion. Instead, ICF Global issued a statement that said nothing about Russia’s decision to invade, but instead issued a statement equally supporting both Ukrainian and Russian coaches even though no one has invaded Russia and Russian coaches aren’t being forced to flee their homes. My wife was shocked.
I suggested to her that she contact individual ICF chapters in the U.S. She has since developed a working relationship between ICF Ukraine and ICF Metro Washington, D.C., where the latter is offering pro-bono coaching and other services to members of ICF Ukraine. ICF Ukraine has since established relationships with other ICF chapters in the U.S., as well as in Europe.
The collaboration with the Metro Washington, DC ICF Chapter and ICF Ukraine is helping ICF Ukraine to continue operating. Ukrainian civil society groups, along with the local governments and the military will ensure that Russia can never establish a permanent presence in temporarily occupied Ukraine. This combination, more even than arrival of weapons from the West, will ensure Ukraine’s victory.