Bob Homans June 6

20220607

Ukraine – 6/6 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
June 6, 2022

The Sleeping Pundits

Everywhere I turn, I read or see stories of Russia making “slow, incremental, gains.”  It seems as if the Pundits wake up every morning, immediately go to their laptops, and file the same stories about Russian incremental gains, that they filed the day before.   It doesn’t seem as if the Sleeping Pundits are paying attention to either Denis’ You Tube reports (here is his latest) or the reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).   Here is ISW’s latest.   As I’ve previously suggested, Denis’ and the ISW reports should be viewed together. 

 The major pieces of news include Ukraine pushing back the Russians from Svierodonetsk, something that even Denis admits was something he would’ve never predicted, increasing Ukrainian counterattacks in the south, northeast of Kherson and, as described in today’s New York Times, increasing partisan activities in temporarily occupied areas, primarily in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.   

If the reports are correct, that Russia is pouring troops into Luhansk Oblast, especially Svierodonetsk, with the objective of taking all of Donbas, they may be making a monumental mistake.   For Ukraine, Kherson is of primary importance.   If the result of Russia’s focus on Donbas means less Russian presence in Kherson, this is to Ukraine’s great advantage.   The fact that Ukraine has retaken much of Svierodonetsk given Ukraine an even larger advantage.

President Zelenskyy said recently that Russia controls 20% of Ukraine’s territory.  With increased Ukrainian counterattacks combined with increased partisan activity within temporarily occupied Ukraine, this assertion seems to become less and less accurate.

D-Day Anniversary

In today’s Anniversary celebration of D-Day, Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, compared the suffering of the French People under Nazi occupation during WW-II, to the suffering of millions of Ukrainians under today’s Russian assault on Ukraine.   When President Macron talks about not “humiliating” Putin, perhaps he should ask himself if Gen. DeGaulle wanted to avoid humiliating Hitler.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (Republican – Indiana), the only Member of the U.S. Congress who was born in Ukraine, once took her children to Omaha Beach, to show them the price of freedom.   Yesterday, Rep. Spartz visited Chernihiv, the City in Ukraine where she was born.   The people of Chernihiv have already paid a high price for freedom, and the war is not yet won.

6/6 Sitrep

INTERNATIONAL

Politico: The US has made it clear that they will not agree to the lifting of sanctions in exchange for the Russian ease the blockade of Ukrainian ports for the export of grain. No Russian blackmail will work. The lifting of the blockade will be allowed in other formats. I have already said that military convoys of partner countries for tankers can remove this question.

Reuters:  Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine: The US allowed the Italian oil company Eni SpA and the Spanish oil company Repsol SA to supply Venezuelan oil to Europe. Thus Venezuelan oil will replace Russian oil in the market.

JSC «Renault Russia» was renamed to JSC Moscow Automobile Plant "Moskvich". The changes were registered in the United Federal Register of Legal Persons on June 3.

Press secretary of the President of Turkey: Türkiye stated that "in the coming days" is waiting for a decision on grain exports from Ukraine by sea, but even after the agreement, it will take about five weeks to start the operation.

Reuters:  Britain will supply Ukraine with multiple-launch rocket systems M270 that can strike targets up to 80 km (50 miles) away.   "These highly capable multiple-launch rocket systems will enable our Ukrainian friends to better protect themselves against the brutal use of long-range artillery, which Putin's forces have used indiscriminately to flatten cities".

Army Recognition:  Sweden will provide Ukraine with AG 90 anti-personnel sniper rifles and ammunition and an additional 5,000 Swedish anti-tank AT4 anti-tank guns. Sweden also intends to contribute 60 million Swedish kronor ($ 6.14 million) to a fund set up by NATO to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Governor of the Kursk Region (Russia): Today, the village of Tetkino, Glushkov district, was shelled. The strike targeted the bridge and local businesses. Information on damage and possible casualties is being clarified.

France2 TV channel: 18 French CAESAR self-propelled guns were delivered to Ukraine, where they have already destroyed 80 units of Russian artillery.

Corriere della Sera:  1,500 Belarus are fighting on the side of Ukraine in Belarusian battalions. According to the elected President Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.  When the war began, many in Belarus believed that we should help the Ukrainians, so a battalion was organized. Currently it is 1.5 thousand people. In fact, he is not alone: ​​there are several of them in different cities, under the supervision of the Ukrainian army.

●        Many in Belarus want to help Ukraine and are currently being trained in other countries. How many and where they are, I am not allowed to say. Often these are people who need training because they have no experience of war. But for sure the number of Belarusian fighters on the side of Ukraine will grow.

The New York Times: Russian Private Mercenary Corps Wagner, led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, is mining gold in the mines of Sudan to illegally replenish Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves and mitigate the effect of Western sanctions on the Russian economy

The parliamentary delegation of South Korea today visited Irpin and Bucha

Vecherne Novosti:  Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro closed their airspace to the aircraft of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ahead of his visit to Serbia.  Thus, the Russian minister's visit to Belgrade, scheduled for June 6-7, is on the verge of collapse. It is noted that Serbian President Vucic will personally handle the logistics of Lavrov's planned visit.

●        Reuters: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit to Serbia has been cancelled after Bulgaria, North Macedonia, and Montenegro closed their airspace to his aircraft.

Roskomnadzor blocked 'United24', a fundraising platform for Ukraine launched by Zelenskyi.

Reuters:  Austrian Chancellor called for an intermediate step between cooperation and full EU membership for Ukraine  "Currently, Ukraine is fighting for its political and territorial survival. A quick and complete accession to the European Union in any case cannot be an urgent problem at this stage".

Head of EU diplomacy: responded to Putin, who blamed the West for the emerging food crisis:  Russia is directly responsible for any shortfalls in the international grain trade, and instead of ending its aggression, it is actively seeking to shift the blame to international sanctions.

Sunday Times:  A party vote of no confidence in British Prime Minister Boris Johnson could take place on June 8. The newspaper's sources believe that the necessary 54 letters from members of parliament demanding a vote have either been collected or will be collected soon.

CNN: Pope Francis has once again called for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine.  I again appeal to national leaders: please do not destroy humanity. Hold real negotiations, concrete negotiations for a ceasefire and a sustainable solution.    It is noted that the Vatican and France are calling for a ceasefire, just at the time that Ukraine is launching counterattacks in and around Svierodonetsk, in Donbas, and in Kherson, as well as increased partisan attacks in temporarily occupied territories.  Don’t expect Ukraine to agree to Franch and Papal proposals, even though Pres. Macron of France doesn’t want to “humiliate” Putin.

Head of the European Commission GLOBSEC 2022:  The European Commission will provide Ukraine with expert support for effective investments and necessary reforms. This will build a path to the European Union.  Ukrainians know exactly what kind of future they want. The future of a free and open society that belongs to a strong democratic community.

Former US ambassador to Ukraine:  Russian artillery firing at Ukraine from Russian territory will be a justified target for destruction by HIMARS missile systems.  If we are talking about Russian military units firing at the Ukrainian side, these are the targets. It doesn't matter where they are located - in Ukraine or Russia.

Sweden and Finland will not join NATO without fulfilling Türkiye's conditions, – Erdogan.

Financial Times:  The largest law firms in the UK have begun to refuse to work with Russian clients against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as threats of possible U.S. travel bans.   Long-time readers of my emails know how I feel about U.S. professional services firms, including U.S. law firms, slopping at Ukraine’s trough.  I have the same disdain for British law firms doing the same with Russian  clients.

Die Welt interview with the head of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament):  Conversations with Putin can be conducted only in one direction: when he will stop this bloody war, when he will reimburse Ukraine for all issues related to the damage he did. Everything else - we see eloquently, we do not need words, we we see his actions

European Commissioner:  The EU has developed a plan to phase out Russian gas. It will include 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas imports from the US or Qatar, an additional 10 billion on existing pipelines, acceleration of offshore wind turbines and photovoltaic panels representing 25 billion cubic meters.

Media and social networks:  Dmytro Medvedev's son has had his US visa revoked. Ilya Medvedev must leave the States within two days. There is no official confirmation yet.

Pronews GR:  The Greek government has handed over or is about to hand over an incredible amount of weapons and ammunition to Kyiv.  In total, according to him, the list of 122 armored infantry vehicles IFV-1 with all ammunition for machine guns; 15,000 73-mm shells; 2.1 thousand 122-mm rockets; 20,000 AK-47 Kalashnikov rifles; 3.2 million 7.62 mm cartridges; 60 FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS; 17,000 155-mm artillery shells; 1.1 thousand RPG-18 anti-tank shells.

Social Media:  An action in support of Ukraine in Auckland, New Zealand, Dresden, Dubai, Madrid, Prague, Sao Paulo

Italian Foreign Minister: The world is currently at war. "There is a danger of political instability in Africa, the spread of terrorist organizations, coups. This could be caused by the grain crisis we are experiencing."

Bild: The German newspaper placed the morning shelling of Kyiv on the front page. The editorial office reports that this is the capital's most massive missile strike since April.

NATIONAL

Operator GTS of Ukraine:  Ukraine has an opportunity to completely abandon the import of gas by the development of its own gas extraction and production of biogas. Ukraine has enormous potential for biogas production - up to 8 billion m3 of biogas per year. It’s a very ambitious goal for the next ten years. But 0.5 bln m3 of biogas in two years is possible to extract”.

Suspilne: The volunteers cancelled the evacuation from the occupied territories of the Kharkiv region, which was to take place on June 6, because of the danger. This reported by "Help to leave", which is preparing for an evacuation.

British Intelligence: In the early hours of 5 June, Russian Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles struck rail infrastructure in Kyiv, likely attempting to disrupt the supply of Western military equipment to frontline Ukrainian units.

●         In the Donbas, heavy fighting continues in the contested town of Sievierodonetsk and Russian troops continue to push towards Sloviansk as part of their attempted encirclement of Ukrainian forces.

●         At sea, following the loss of the cruiser Moskva in April, Russian forces have likely moved multiple air defence assets to Zmiinnyi Island(Shake Island) in the western Black Sea, including SA-15 and SA-22 systems. These weapons are likely intended to provide air defence for Russian naval vessels operating around Zmiinnyi Island.

●         Russia's activity on Zmiinnyi Island contributes to its blockade of the Ukrainian coast and hinders the resumption of maritime trade, including exports of Ukrainian grain.

Institute for the Study of War:  The successful counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Severodonetsk indicate the declining combat power of Russian forces in Ukraine.

●        According to them, this area of combat operations is now a priority for the Kremlin, and to keep it there, Russians will send additional units and equipment. This will leave vulnerabilities in other areas that will help the Ukrainian military.

Deputy Minister of Infrastructure’s brother was wounded in Donbas and is in serious condition - he has a severe head and eye injury.  “He was in a coma, from time to time he regains consciousness; doctors say that he is now stable. He was taken to Dnipro, to the regional hospital where they are preparing for the operation”.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

Briefing 07:49 June 6

●         Russian troops continue shelling the civilian infrastructure of the settlements of the Chernihiv and Sumy regions of Ukraine.

●         In the Kharkiv region, the Russians shelled Bazylivka, Kutuzivka and Petrivske localities.

●        Russian troops try to cross across the Siverskyi Donets river but without success.

●        They continue to shell the villages of the cities of Sloviansk, Lysychansk, Otihiv, Sviatohirsk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

●        Fighting continues around the city of Sievierodonetsk, Sviatohirsk and Staryi Karavan.

●        In the past 24 hours in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled seven attacks; and destroyed four tanks, three artillery systems, eight armoured combat vehicles and three cars.

●        Air Defence Units shot down a Ka-52 combat helicopter and a UAV.

Briefing 18:09 June 5

●        In the Sloviansk direction, the Russian army fired at civilian infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Chepil, Dubrovno, Virnopillia, Dovhenke and Bohorodychne.

●        The Russians unsuccessfully tried to conduct offensive and assault operations in the areas of the settlements of Bohorodychne and Dovhenke.

●        In the Lyman direction, with the support of artillery, the enemy resumed the offensive around ​​the settlement of Sviatohirsk, has significant losses in manpower, weapons and equipment.

●        The enemy conducts assault operations in the direction of the village of Staryi Karavan. The fighting continues.

●        The troops of the Russian Federation conducted assault operations in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka and Mykolaivka in the Luhansk region, but suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment. They fail, the fighting continues.

●        The Russians conducted assault operations in the area of ​​the settlement of Bila Krynytsia, the Kherson region, in order to restore the previously lost position. After a fire defeat by the defense forces of Ukraine, they retreated to their previously occupied positions.

●        The Russian troops equip their positions in the Kharkiv region and mine the approaches

Ukravtodor:  Ukraine will need two to four years to restore the roads destroyed as a result of hostilities.  At least UAH 900 billion (about $30.5 billion) is needed to restore the road infrastructure.

Operational Command Pivden (South): ⚡Russians are going to launch new missile strikes from the Black Sea. They keep several vessels equipped with cruise missiles in the area.

Ukrzaliznytsia:  Details of rocket fire at Kyiv.  Four missiles hit the DCRP - Darnytsia Car Repair Plant. One railway man was injured.  Ukrzaliznytsia denied Russian military reports that tanks were being repaired at the plant.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: 5 Russian cruise missiles were fired at Kyiv. One missile was destroyed by the air defense unit of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The rest hit infrastructure facilities in the northern part of the capital.

The Associated Press: Football competitions in Ukraine will resume in August. The decision was made jointly with President Volodymyr Zelensky. In Ukraine, we will play at all levels: the Ukrainian Professional League, the first league, the second league, the women's championship.

Russian Donestsk General Prosecutor's Office:  Militants of the so-called "DNR" have abducted and will try three foreigners who face the so-called death penalty. They say they have completed a "criminal investigation" against foreigners - British citizens Sean Pinner and Andrew Hill, as well as a citizen of the Kingdom of Morocco Saadun Brahim.

Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine:  In order to create a "picture" in the media that is beneficial to Russian propagandists, Russian soldiers fired on the center of Donetsk claiming Ukraine is attacking civilians.

National Police: Russian saboteurs have become more active in Kyiv and the region.  Russia recruits people from occupied Donbas who understand the Ukrainian language. However, this is the only qualification and so there are no results of their work; the Ukrainian military and law enforcement agencies easily identify them and arrest them.

●        The Russians hit a military facility in Kyiv during yesterday morning’s rocket attack. See my account in my previous Substack post - Graham

State Security Service:  In an intercepted phone conversation between a Collaborator in Kherson and an advisor to the occupational government of Crimea, they discuss" squeezing "private business from local entrepreneurs. Russians want to appropriate regional gas stations to sell fuel imported from the Crimea.

Intelligence Directorate of Ukrainian Armed Forces:  Russian soldiers are trying en masse to avoid direct clashes with the defenders of Ukraine. Despite the threats of criminal prosecution, the Russian military is trying in all possible ways to leave the territory of Ukraine.

KHARKIV

Regional Military Administration:  The hottest point in the region is now near Izyum:  Russians are trying to attack in the directions Dovgenke and Brazhkovka - Vernopillia.

●        The Russians have not abandoned plans to capture Kharkiv - there will still be attempts, but today there is no information about the readiness of the Russian army for a new assault.

●        Russian troops are again shelling residential areas of Kharkiv, and called on the townspeople to stay in shelters.

●        “The enemy tried to attack our positions in the Izyum region. However, he was not successful and was forced to retreat, having suffered losses. In the northern and northeastern direction, the invaders focused on defense. Our armed forces are trying to move forward. The enemy is taking revenge on peaceful Kharkiv residents and is intensifying shelling of residential areas

LUHANSK

National Police: The headquarters for issuing humanitarian aid burned down in Lysychansk after being hit by Russian artillery.  There were more than 40 civilians in the building’s basement shelter at the time.

Regional Military Administration: 66 people were evacuated from Lysychansk, 6 of them children

●        It is possible to drive the Russians out of Severodonetsk, but this has no strategic significance.

●        The humanitarian situation in Lysychansk is extremely difficult. There is no water supply in the city, supplies are sometimes replenished with imported water. Now there are 15-20 thousand people in the city. Only 10% of the inhabitants have enough food.

●        In total, 98 people from Lysychansk were able to evacuate today

●        The Armed Forces of Ukraine have cleared half of Severodonetsk and are moving forward.

●        From communication interceptions, we realized that the commander of the Russian army received two tasks - by June 10 he would capture Severodonetsk and the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway.  We expect that the Russians will try to level the area to the ground to reach this goal.

●        The Russians are taking the residents of Severodonetsk to occupied Luhansk to rob empty apartments.  "People return in a week, and their apartments are robbed".  There are concrete facts of similar cases in Popasna and Rubizhne.

●         The situation in Sievierodonetsk has deteriorated somewhat; the fighting is very dynamic. Half the city was liberated during the counterattack, but now we hold positions in the industrial zone.

●         The shelling of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk has increased tenfold.

●        - In the Luhansk region, there are a lot of towns with a situation comparable to Mariupol: Shchastia, Popasna, Rubizhne. Now, the Russians are burning Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk to the ground

●        The Russian troops continue to prepare for the capture of the "road of life" - the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway.  This track is not controlled by the Russians for today but is completely shot. The amount of equipment and people they have is huge. They brought an incredible amount of reserves".

DONETSK

Adviser to the mayor:  Photo of Russians are watering flowers in Mariupol, while residents do not have technical water, and drinking water is issued every two days.  The Occupiers are preparing to entertain Russian media.

●        Two people died due to a mine explosion on the beach "Pishchanyi" in Mariupol, among them an 8-year-old boy.  According to him, this happened after the Russians "cleared" the beach from mines, and the head of the occupation administration emphasized that it was safe to visit.

●        Today, during the fighting around ​​the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, the Ukrainian military eliminated Major General of the RF Armed Forces Roman Kutuzov.

●        From today, analogue television is unavailable in Donetsk and the occupied part of the region.

●        Novoazovsk began accepting documents from Mariupol residents for a Russian passport.  There was propaganda and there is no propaganda. The funny thing is that there is no television because of the damage by the shelling, which was again staged by the Russians themselves in order to accuse the Armed Forces of Ukraine of shelling "civilians". Such a shot is neatly in the brain of Russian-Donetsk propaganda the advisor said on Twitter.

●        How’s the humanitarian distribution going in occupied Mariupol; 1,500-2,000 people in line. Four hundred aid packages are distributed daily. In the heat, without water, people lose consciousness. Plus, the stench of a morgue set up 200 meters from the Humanitarian Center. People wait for 6 hours in such inhuman conditions, but there is no other way to get food.

State Emergency Service:   The consequences of a night missile attack by the Russian troops on Kramatorsk.  Two enterprises were seriously damaged. There is information about one killed. Debris clearing continues.

Regional Military Administration: At least 43 religious buildings in the Donetsk region alone were destroyed and damaged - most of them belonged to the Moscow Patriarchate.

ZAPORIZHIA

Deputy Commander of the Special Regiment  A.Kadyrov was wounded in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian media report.

The mayor of Energodar said that Russian soldiers are kidnapping people in the city, robbing empty apartments, and there is almost no Internet connection in the city.

Regional Military Administration: About 60% of the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region was temporarily occupied by Russian troops.  Due to hostilities, 77 settlements have been de-energized, and 2,701 infrastructure facilities have been destroyed, about 700 of them have been restored. In the last two weeks, the largest number of migrants come to the Zaporizhia region from the Kherson region and Mariupol.

●        Six people were injured due to the shelling of Hulaipole town by Russian troops. On the night of 4-5 June, Russians shelled high-rise buildings and private houses in Hulaipole. They also hit other local infrastructure.

Melitopol guerrillas hang leaflets around the city threatening the Russian military.

MYKOLAIV

Regional State Administration:  Russian troops have increased shelling of the Mykolaiv region to create the illusion of domination in the region.  Russians increased the number of shelling of civilian objects of cities and villages. I think they do it to create the illusion that their dominance takes place. From a military point of view, on the contrary, they lose ground, their attempts to resist are unsuccessful, and they suffer losses.

Mayor:  Yesterday the Russian military fired at a grain elevator in Mykolaiv, setting it on fire. Rescuers are still fighting the fire.  Which port elevator was not specified at 13:00 June 5.

KYIV

Ukraine National Railways “Ukrzaliznytsia:” Because of the Russian missile attack, the Darnytskyi car repair plant lost three workshops, but the repair and production of the cars will be tried to resume in cooperation with other enterprises of the industry.

Regional Police:  Law enforcement officers found another body of a civilian killed by the Russian military near the village of Vyshehrad, the Kyiv region.  According to preliminary data from the security forces, the 41-year-old native of the Volyn region was killed by the Russians with a shot in the head.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister:  Despite the fact that the Russian troops have been withdrawn from Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital is still a dangerous place.  “We have always said that Kyiv is under threat. We need to understand that the war is in a hot phase. And Kyiv, as the main goal of the Russian Federation, remains this goal”.

Regional Military Administration: In the village Dymer Kyiv region, as a result of shelling by Russian troops, 614 buildings were damaged and 90 were totally destroyed

SUMY

Regional Military Administration: Yesterday morning, the Russian military once again struck at the Sumy region.  The Russians fired mortars at settlements of the Shostka district, and at that time two missiles flew over the territory of the region. In addition, the enemy opened fire on the territory of the Bilopol.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news