Ukraine – 6/5/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
June 5, 2023
News From the Battlefield
From looking at both “Reporting From Ukraine” and “The Latest Denys,” Ukraine’s counteroffensive, if there really is one underway, seems to be unfolding in much the same way we predicted, with Ukrainian incursions in multiple directions: Belgorod Oblast; toward Svatove in the Kharkiv Region north of Bakhmut; Bakhmut; Vulhedar; west of Vulhedar toward Tokmak.
Don’t expect one large thrust. Ukraine will likely be conducting their offensive in a manner that will try to keep their casualties to a minimum, but at the same time take advantage of their superior equipment. Ukraine doesn’t have the 3/1 manpower advantage that conventional wisdom says is necessary to conduct a major offensive. For this reason, I don’t expect a major counterattack from Avdiivka and Mariinka toward Donetsk City, because it would likely expose Ukrainian forces to fighting in a large urban area. However, if for no other reason than to pin down Russian forces, there is still the possibility of an attack southeast, from Kherson City/Nova Kakhovka, across the Dnieper River and toward the entrance to Crimea. The bridge at Nova Kakhovka is still intact.
The latest casualty analysis from Bakhmut claims that Russia’s casualties in and around Bakhmut exceeded Ukraine’s by 7.5/1. The high ratio might be explained by the fact that Ukraine was successful in withdrawing almost all of its troops from Bakhmut, while using snipers and artillery to inflict large losses on the Wagners and Russian regular forces attempting to take over the entire city, and at the same time re-deploying their troops to the flanks north and south of the City where they are achieving significant success.
I would also not rule out a Ukrainian incursion into Transnistria for 2 reasons; take the large stock of Soviet-era ammunition that is stored there; neutralize the 1,500 Russian “peacekeepers” and open the opportunity for Moldova to re-assert its control over its sovereign territory.
As “Reporting From Ukraine” pointed out, none of the Ukraine’s most recent actions involved Ukraine’s use of Western equipment. It also may not have included Ukrainian troops that were sent to the UK and Germany for training. Instead “Reporting From Ukraine” stated that Ukraine used T-72 tanks and other equipment that has been in Ukraine’s possession since the start of Russia’s latest invasion. Previous emails have included reports that Ukraine is holding back substantial reserves, including Western equipment, west of Bakhmut, reserves that have yet to be committed. Ukraine is likely holding back substantial reserves north of Vuhledar.
At 12:25 into “The Latest Denys,” there is a map showing the extent of the incursion of the Russian “volunteers” into the Belgorod Region. From looking at this map and the analysis by “Reporting From Ukraine,” the action in the Belgorod Region seems like more than just a nuisance.
6/5/2023 Sitrep
From Bohdan - As Sherlock Holmes used to say to Watson, "The game is afoot". Depending on who you read the counteroffensive has started on the Eastern Front or the Southern Front. Poor rashists must decide which front to reinforce just as more news comes out regarding incursions by Russian partisans into Russia. If I remember correctly the one overarching stereotype about the rashist military was that it was lousy at logistics. What this translates into when you need to step up your logistics game in three directions is open to speculation.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon June 4 to 12:00 noon June 5, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Monday June 5
12:54 am: Guns'n'Roses started a world tour with a song in support of Ukraine
8:21 am: At the request of NATO, Turkey has sent a special forces battalion to Kosovo, it is starting to deploy, - the Ministry of National Defense.
10:24 am: A fire broke out in the German city of Apolda (eastern Thuringia), where refugees from Ukraine lived, Ambassador Oleksiy Makeev reported.
· According to the head of the regional Ministry of Internal Affairs, Georg Mayer, the child died. Another 10 people were injured.
11:34 am: On June 5, as part of a peace mission, an envoy from the Pope, Italian Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, arrived in Ukraine with a visit. This is stated in the statement of the Vatican.
· The main goal of the mission will be cooperation with the Ukrainian authorities and consideration of possible ways to achieve a just peace, as well as "supporting gestures of humanity to ease tension."
Sunday June 4
3:58 pm: Talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg began in Istanbul.
· The local publication Star writes about it. It is noted that the negotiations are closed to the press.
11:21 pm: Sweden has fulfilled all Turkey's requirements for joining NATO.
· This was stated by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during his visit to Turkey.
· "We discussed, in particular, the next NATO summit in Vilnius. Namely, the support we can provide to Ukraine," Stoltenberg added.
NATIONAL
Monday June 5
7:07 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: In total, during the past day, the Russians launched 14 missile and 40 air strikes, carried out 51 shelling from anti-aircraft missiles.
· They continue to focus their main efforts on attempts to fully occupy Luhansk and Donetsk regions. During the past day, 29 combat clashes took place.
· In one day, the aviation of the defense forces struck 15 airstrikes on the areas where Russian personnel are concentrated. Also, 6 reconnaissance UAVs were destroyed.
· During the day, units of missile forces and artillery struck 3 control points, 2 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, 4 ammunition depots, 2 anti-aircraft missile complexes and 4 electronic warfare stations.
· In the Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions last day, a russian diversionary reconnaissance group made an unsuccessful attempt to penetrate across the state border of Ukraine in the area of Zelene settlement of the Kharkiv region, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Sunday June 4
1:25 pm: Ukrainian pilots will be sent in waves for training on Western fighter jets. The first list has been formed, - Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat told the details of the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters.
· "You have to fight here, but you also have to study there. Therefore, on such a rotational basis, they will be sent in waves. In the first wave, there may be several dozen pilots. In the first wave, there will actually be the best and most experienced pilots. Priority for those who speak English well." - Yuriy Ignat.
1:51 pm: The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Bakhmut were 7.5 times less than those of the Russians, - Secretary of the National Security Council Oleksiy Danilov in an interview with the Italian publication Corriere della Sera.
· "Since September 1, when Moscow started using convicts as mercenaries in Bakhmut, 22,816 Russians have died. Our losses were 7.5 times smaller. We have no right to surrender our cities," the NSDC secretary said.
2:15 pm: "There will be no announcement of the start. Plans love silence," - Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar published a video with Ukrainian defenders.
6:07 pm: Today, on Children's Remembrance Day, Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine pay respect and memory to all Ukrainian children whose lives were cut short by the occupier's weapons.
· According to the Office of the Prosecutor General, more than 1,490 children were injured in Ukraine because of the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation.
· According to the official information of juvenile prosecutors, 485 children died and more than 1,005 were injured of various degrees of severity. These numbers are not final.
6:41 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on June 4:
· "Tonight, the enemy used Kh-101/Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles and Iranian strike UAVs "Shahed-136/131".
· According to detailed information, [...] 4 out of 6 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 6 out of 8 "Shahed-136/131" attack UAVs were destroyed.
· "During the day, the enemy launched 7 missile and 25 air strikes, carried out about 20 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
· Unfortunately, there are casualties among the civilian population, private residential buildings, educational institutions, and other civil and administrative infrastructure have been damaged."
· "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the full occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
· During the day, the occupiers launched 23 attacks, but all of them were repelled by units of the defense forces."
· "[...] To one of the divisions of the Russian occupation forces, which operates in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kharkiv region, personnel from among former convicts [...] in the number of about 500 people.
· After the fire attack by the Defense Forces of Ukraine [...], about 100 people from among the newly arrived reinforcements suffered injuries of varying degrees of severity non-life-threatening injuries.
· Also, after this event, about 80 people voluntarily left their positions."
· "The aviation of the defense forces struck 10 airstrikes on personnel concentration areas during the day.
· Our defenders destroyed 1 enemy reconnaissance UAV.
· During the day, units of missile troops and artillery struck 2 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, an ammunition depot, 2 anti-aircraft missile complexes and 2 radio electronic warfare stations of the enemy.
10:49 pm: The families of the fallen defenders of Mariupol and the Patronage Service call to sign a petition for the creation of a Memorial to the defenders of Mariupol in Kyiv.
· You can sign the petition for the project of the memorial complex on the Singing Field at the link: https://petition.president.gov.ua/petition/191658
11:36 pm: American plastic surgeons are reconstructing the faces and necks of wounded soldiers. More than 30 complex operations were performed in Lviv
· Participants of the US plastic surgeons mission also share their knowledge with Ukrainian specialists.
11:50 pm: Interim summary of the collection of a separate tactical air reconnaissance group "Birds of Magyar"
1. Collected 20🍋(million) UAH. (mono + private + PayPal) in 5 hours!
2. ATTENTION, Magyar warned about fraudsters who send fake details in private messages. The collection is held only in public, for official details!
3. Thank you to each and every one of you for your contribution!
4. Let's move on
💪
MORDOR - Russia
Monday June 5
12:11 am: New interception of GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
· The Russian military discusses its plans for the release and funeral of the "Wagnerian".
12:26 am: "Wagnerians" captured a lieutenant colonel of the Russian army.
· They claim that this military man and his soldiers mined roads for PVK units and opened fire on them when they were returning from the Bakhmut direction.
· The video was published by Prigozhin's press service.
4:12 am: One of the energy facilities is on fire in the Belgorod district. The preliminary cause of the fire was an explosive device dropped from a drone, the governor of the region, Gladkov, said.
8:21 am: Russian authorities do not coordinate actions and do not know how to respond to operations in the Belgorod region, - ISW.
9:50 am: StratCom of the ZSU warns that Russian troops are intensifying their information and psychological operations:
· "In order to demoralize Ukrainians and mislead the community, Russian propagandists will spread false information about the counteroffensive, its directions and the losses of the Ukrainian army. Even if there is no counterattack. For this, old videos and photos have been prepared, which show damaged equipment, dead and captured. And also other fake materials."
10:47 am: Two drones fell on the M3 "Ukraine" highway in the Kaluga region of the Russian Federation, - rosZMI.
· The information was confirmed by the local governor Vladyslav Shapsha. The devices were not detonated, the road is now closed.
Sunday June 4
12:45 pm: The air defense system went off over Belgorod. The operational services are clarifying the consequences on the ground, the governor of the region, Gladkov, said.
2:41 pm: RDK and the Legion "Freedom of Russia" summon the governor of Belgorod region for negotiations:
· Russian insurgents announced that they had captured soldiers of the Russian army and wanted to exchange them for a few minutes of communication with the governor.
3:06 pm: Russia is becoming more and more a totalitarian state. This is evidenced by the laws that prohibit spreading the truth about the war in Ukraine — British intelligence.
· "The crackdown underscores uncertainty among paranoid Russian officials about what is and is considered acceptable in an increasingly totalitarian system," the intelligence said.
· British intelligence has also mocked officials who try to avoid the combination of blue and yellow colors, which may indicate subtle support for Ukraine.
5:40 pm: Street fights in Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod region. Video from local social networks.
7:37 pm Social Networks: Residents report the work of air defense in Krasnodar, Russia.
8:17 pm: Residents of temporarily occupied Crimea report that local television was hacked on the peninsula.
· TV channels broadcast a new video from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
8:39 pm: RDK and Legion "Freedom of Russia" recorded another appeal to the governor of the Belgorod region Gladkov:
· "As we expected, Mr. Gladkov did not consider it necessary, did not find the courage to exchange his precious time for the life and freedom of, as he managed to say, "our boys".
· It is also reported that the prisoners will be handed over to the Ukrainian side for the exchange procedure.
9:12 pm: Local social networks publish a map of the blacked-out settlements of the Belgorod region.
· Water and communications are also reported to be out due to electricity problems.
KHARKIV
Sunday June 4
4:25 pm: Today at 2:30 p.m., the Russian military shelled Zolochiv of the Kharkiv region with artillery, the head of the community Viktor Kovalenko reported.
· "Preliminarily, the house of children's and youth creativity was damaged. 10 windows and the entrance door were broken. Other damages are being investigated. A 40-year-old man and a 38-year-old woman were injured," Kovalenko said.
10:18 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the suburbs of Kharkiv.
10:26 pm: Russians struck Vovchansk again, two elderly women, 62 and 74 years old, were killed.
· This was reported in the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office.
· It is known about 3 more wounded in the region and damaged residential buildings.
10:38 pm Chuguyiv RMA: Russia struck Chuguev, Kharkiv region. There is no information about the consequences of the attack at this moment.
LUHANSK
Sunday June 4
5:25 pm: Ukrainian soldiers from the 92nd OMBr advanced 400 meters in the Swativ direction in the Luhansk region.
· This was announced by the commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi.
· Also, according to him, servicemen of the 80th ODSHBr liberated from the Russian troops a section of the Ivanovo forest in the direction of Bakhmut.
DONETSK
12:46 am: This is what Maryinka of the Donetsk region looks like. Fierce fighting continues in the city.
11:53 am: Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sirsky published a video where the tanks of the 3rd separate assault brigade broke ground with the Russians during the assault on Russian positions in the Bakhmut direction.
Sunday June 4
12:25 pm Donetsk RMA: Russians shelled Hirnyk from Hurricanes — 1 person died, 7 were injured. Among the injured are two children. The territory of the enterprise in the Slavic community came under fire — without casualties, -
· The Russians also shelled Velika Novosilka, Umanske, New York, Chasiv Yar, Zvanivka, and Pereizne.
· In just one day, the Russians killed 4 residents of Donetsk region and wounded another 8.
4:28 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Mariupol district.
3:51 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Melitopol.
ZAPORIZHIA
Sunday June 4
8:36 am: The Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced in the direction of Zaporozhye and probably in some places broke through the first line of defense of the Russians, — ISW.
· According to the geolocation of the video recordings published yesterday, Ukrainian mechanized forces have made a limited advance to the northeast of Rivnopillia.
DNIPRO
Sunday June 4
7:58 am Dnipro RMA: The Russians attacked Nikopol twice during the night. The city was bombarded with heavy artillery.
· A church and a private enterprise were damaged. 9 residential buildings, an outbuilding and power lines were damaged. People are whole.
· They also attacked the region with a drone. "Shakhed" was shot down.
KHERSON
Saturday June 3
4:55 pm: In Vesely, the Russians destroyed the premises of an agricultural enterprise with controlled aerial bombs, reported the Kherson OVA.
· A 64-year-old woman received minor injuries because of the shelling. The Russians also attacked Beryslav - they aimed at the territory of the plant.
12:39 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
3:46 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
10:07 am: According to the information of the Kherson OVA, the Russians shelled peaceful settlements in the Kherson region 28 times. 176 shells were fired from artillery, mortars, aviation, "Grad" and drones.
· They aimed at the residential quarters of the settlements of the region; the territory and buildings of the plant and the communal enterprise of Beryslav district. 2 people were injured.
11:37 am: Due to the shelling of Kherson, a civilian was killed - the head of the OVA Yuriy Prokudin.
· At around 10 a.m., the Russian army again shelled the regional center – they hit one of the enterprises. A 55-year-old security guard, who was at work, received non-life-threatening injuries.
KYIV
Sunday June 4
12:02 pm: 44% of shelters in Kyiv are locked or unfit for use, - Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshyn.
· In total, more than a thousand shelters were checked. 11% of them were closed, another 33% were unusable.
7:50 pm: Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko and Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin have been inspecting shelters in Kyiv for the second day — today in the Holosiivskyi district.
· "Unfortunately, there are again no representatives of the Kyiv City Military Administration in the group. I asked why.
· Some of the cellars are in private hands or leased. Some of them are not equipped, somewhere in educational institutions they are equipped, but they are closed at night.
· I will emphasize once again that their balance-keepers and heads of districts are responsible for the arrangement and operation of shelters. Funds for all RDAs have been allocated," Klitschko writes.
9:35 am: Vitali Klitschko published the results of checking more than 1,600 shelters in all districts of Kyiv as of the morning of June 5.
11:18 am: The situation with bomb shelters in Kyiv is critical, Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshyn said.
· According to Kamyshin, as of June 5, 1,849 shelters were checked - a third of those in the city. Only 1,011 of them are ready to accept people who are hiding. 596 are not ready, and another 242 could not be opened.
POLTAVA
Sunday June 4
3:30 pm: An air alert lasted more than 2 hours in Poltava Oblast. No hits were recorded, Dmytro Lunin, the head of Poltava OVA, said.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka