Ukraine – 6/30/2023 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
June 30, 2023
Our Ebook
We are busy completing our ebook, covering the 1st week of the war, to be sent on July 5th, to those who have supported us through today, June 30th. As mentioned yesterday, we are very excited by how it is turning out. If you would like to support us, in any amount and receive the ebook, please click on the link HERE. Your support is greatly appreciated!
Effectiveness of Sanctions
This is an excellent analysis by Timothy Ash on the effectiveness of sanctions placed on Russia since Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Crimea in February & March 2014. Ash believes that there are 2 separate periods that need to be considered: the period between March 2014, in response to Russia’s illegal invasion of Crimea, and February 24, 2022, when Russia’s latest invasion began, and between February 24, 2022, and today. Ash argues that it wasn’t the sanctions themselves that failed. It was the sanctions plus “our political and policy making process which failed to gauge the risk from Russia, going back fifteen years or more to Putin’s famed address at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, and the year after with the invasion of Georgia. Putin’s intent was clear, our leaders failed to take note, and time after time failed to make appropriate policy choices.”
As states further, “a persistent failure of the Western political class to understand and read Russia and President Putin in particular.” I would add that it wasn’t until the start of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine that the “Western political class” started taking Ukraine seriously as a country. Remember what Putin said to Pres. Bush at the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest, “George, Ukraine is not even a Country.” At the time, I believe that Putin’s remark fell on responsive ears in the West. Perhaps the feeling was, “Why impose crippling sanctions on Russia for the sake of Ukraine, a country that will inevitably become another Russian oblast?”
Ash says, “we can launch investigations as to why sanctions failed, but a more pertinent question - surely important enough to warrant a public inquiry - is why our leaders and establishment got Russia so wrong?” A related question that should be asked in tandem is “why our leaders and establishment got Ukraine so wrong?” At the time (and even now by many) Ukraine was considered to be hopelessly corrupt, run during much of the period leading up to the invasion of Crimea by the kleptocratic administration of Viktor Yanukovich.
Ash argues that the sanctions that were imposed in 2014 took Putin by surprise, and it may have led to putting off Russian plans for a full invasion or at least, in March and April 2014 going for a re-creation of “Novorosiya,” consisting of Crimea, all of Donbas including Kharkiv, and the Black Sea coast through Odesa. At the time I believe that Putin concluded that a full invasion of “Novorosiya” was un-necessary, that the Russian-speaking population of “Novorosiya” would do the work for him. If so, it was a monumental miscalculation on Putin’s part, one of many for the leader many describes as a “chess master” and a “player of the long game.” Kharkiv and Odesa held, despite major efforts by Russian infiltrators, referred to as “tourists,” Mariupol held firm thanks in part of the Azov Battalion, as did Melitopol and Kherson despite the Russian orientation of many of their residents. I was in Kyiv all during the first half of 2014. I was expecting an invasion.
Ash asks how “we can make sanctions more effective - well more sanctions, better targeting, use of secondary sanctions to discourage third parties from trying to help Russia circumvent sanctions. And I think we also need to look at new innovative ideas. Therein Nigel Gould Davis at IISS has proposed an innovative idea that we go to a maximum sanctions regime - plan to ban all trade with Russia by a certain date, and then work backwards in terms of providing licensing.”
Another idea is the “Sanctions Evasion and Whistleblowers Rewards Act,” introduced in the U.S. Congress yesterday, on a bipartisan basis, by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Senator Jim Risch (R-Id), and Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Mn). The Act provides for financial rewards to individuals who expose individuals and legal entities engaged in sanctions busting.
The Act would introduce the profit motive to sanctions enforcement. Always a powerful incentive.
News From the Battlefield
The video clips contained in the latest “Reporting From Ukraine” provide an excellent description on how drones are playing a critical role in attacking Russian trench networks around Bakhmut. Drones have become more effective than artillery and mortars in degrading Russian trench networks, while at the same time reducing Ukrainian casualties. It is likely that Ukraine is applying lessons learned around Bakhmut to the more extensive Russian trench network in Southern Ukraine.
Denys is starting to use a tactical map that shows how extensive the Russian trench network is in the south. He also covers Ukraine’s foothold on the Left Bank of the Dnieper River, opposite Kherson City.
6/30/2023 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon June 29 to 12:00 noon June 30, 2023
Today is the anniversary of the liberation of Snake Island. On June 30, 2022, after 126 days of occupation and a fantastic operation to liberate the island, the remnants of the occupiers left it.
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Friday June 30
12:05 am: The German Ministry of Defense updated the list of aid provided to Ukraine. Included in the new package
● TRML-4D aerial survey radar system
● 3 Biber bridge-laying machines
● mobile demining system
● 16 Zetros trucks
8:10 am: The United States, along with allies and partners, will continue to support Ukraine in its self-defense until Russia withdraws its troops from Ukrainian territory, said First Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Tressa Steffen Guenov.
8:10 am: The Taiwan issue lies at the core of China's core interests and is the most pronounced risk to Sino-US relations, - China's Ministry of Defense.
10:36 am: Scientists have simulated a nuclear war between the US and Russia. The video was published by Time.
● Black ash and smoke raised into the atmosphere closes the planet from solar heat for a period of up to ten years. More than 5 billion people could die from explosions, radiation and starvation.
● "We obviously don't know how many people will survive a nuclear war. But if things are even remotely as bad as this study predicts, there will be no winners, only losers," the journalists said in the article.
Thursday June 29
1:31 pm: President Joe Biden's administration has approved the sale of the Integrated Air and Missile Defense Combat Command System (IAMD IBCS) to Poland.
● This is reported by the website of the US State Department.
● It is noted that the potential sale of weapons to Poland was reported to Congress on Wednesday. The amount of such a contract is $15 billion.
2:36 pm: The issue of Ukraine's future membership in NATO will be discussed after the summit in Vilnius, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.
● "After the NATO summit, we will discuss Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership. And I am absolutely sure that the allies will send a very strong signal of support to Ukraine," said the Secretary General.
5:44 pm: The Naval Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces showed photos from the Sea Breeze 2023 exercise, which started in Britain.
● 18 countries are participating. From the Ukrainian side, the flotilla commander, captain 1st rank Yurii Fedash, is in charge of the training.
● As part of the exercises, it is planned to prepare Sandown-class Cherkasy and Chernihiv Navy mine countermeasure ships, underwater demining groups and underwater unmanned aerial vehicles to conduct mine countermeasures as part of tactical groups in accordance with NATO standards and procedures.
8:25 pm: The US is close to approving the transfer of the ATACMS long-range missile system to Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reports.
● Officials said that the issue is under consideration at the highest level. Officials in the US and Europe have also seen signs that previously reluctant circles of the US government, namely the White House, have concluded an urgent need to support Ukraine's struggle in the coming weeks.
9:15 pm: NATO should simplify the membership procedure for Ukraine to speed up its entry into the alliance, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said.
9:35 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the participants of the European Council meeting.
● "It is important not to stop in sanctions. The less pauses there are, the less Russia will adapt to the pressure on it and the less it will come up with ways to circumvent sanctions. Thank you that the 11th sanctions package draws attention to Russia's efforts to circumvent sanctions through third countries, and this attention is worth strengthen in the 12th EU sanctions package," the president said.
12:09 pm: In the autumn, the digital transformation team of Ukraine will present the "Dream" application for parents and children.
● This was announced by the Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov.
11:29 pm: The Czech government has banned athletes and teams representing Russia from participating in competitions on Czech territory.
● This is stated in the message of the Czech government.
● In addition, Czech athletes and teams are prohibited from competing in the Russian Federation.
11:47 pm: Ukraine will receive an IMF tranche of $890 million. This is stated in the institution's statement.
NATIONAL
Friday June 30
12:55 am: Ukrzaliznytsia presented Greta Thunberg with an eco-cap made of recycled linen
● "Greta Thunberg is a special passenger for Ukrzaliznytsia, because she has long and consistently promoted trains as an eco-responsible alternative to other transport. We found a way to say thank you: Greta is wearing an upcycling cap made of Ukrzaliznytsia underwear today," the company said.
7:14 a.m. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Tonight, the Russian Federation launched another air-missile attack using Iranian strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type and anti-aircraft guided missiles from the S-300. Information regarding the consequences of this terrorist attack is currently being clarified.
● The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marin directions, and heavy fighting continues. During the day, 31 combat clashes took place.
● Over the past day, the aviation of the defense forces has carried out 11 strikes on the areas of concentration of the personnel of the Russian Federation, -
● Units of missile forces and artillery during the past day hit 3 control points, 2 areas of concentration of manpower, a radar station and 13 artillery units in firing positions.
7:56 a.m.: The SBU exposed a sitting deputy who promised to "clear" a foreigner from extradition for $50,000.
● To do this, the parliamentarian "guaranteed" to use his own connections in court, so that the decision of the State Migration Service of Ukraine on the refusal to grant refugee status to a foreigner would be annulled there.
● He faces up to 12 years with confiscation of property (fraud committed on a particularly large scale).
8:39 am: At night, air defense forces destroyed 10 of 13 "shaheeds", - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● The Russians also attacked military and infrastructure facilities in the Zaporizhzhia region with 4 anti-aircraft guided missiles from the S-300 air defense system.
8:53 am: The press service of the "European Solidarity" party reported on the search of one of their deputies, Serhiy Alekseev.
The General Prosecutor's Office published footage from the moment of the search.
● It is reported that the People's Deputy of Ukraine was exposed while handing him the second part of the funds in the amount of 30,000 US dollars. Previously, he received another 20 thousand dollars. USA.
11:53 am: Vitaliy Klitschko spoke at the opening of the conference on democratic governance organized by the International Republican Institute (IRI) in the capital.
● He emphasized that local self-government is a part of public power and the basis of democracy. Strong local self-government is a guarantee of citizens' involvement in the processes in the country.
● He also emphasized that the war is not an excuse for the suppression of the rights of communities, for tightening the screws on the ground, for political showdowns and confrontation. This is unnecessary and will not lead to success either inside the country or in the fight against the aggressor.
Thursday June 29
12:31 pm: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine published a photo of the destroyed Bakhmut.
●
"What the Russians turned Bakhmut into is hardly a city - it is the ruins of a once beautiful city with a developed infrastructure and excellent architecture. Russia deprived Bakhmut of a civilized and happy life," the description under the photo reads.
12:50 pm: State Concern "Ukroboronprom" has been reorganized into JSC "Ukrainian Defense Industry", Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamishyn announced.
● "The next step is the transfer of staff, transfer of property and further transformational processes. Next is the formation of the Supervisory Board in accordance with OECD standards," the minister said.
1:11 pm: The Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing near Bakhmut.
● He also published a video of how 45 OABr and 57 OMPBr work.
1:52 pm: Ihor Hayduk, the deputy head of the Ternopil Police Department, was placed under preventive measures.
● According to the decision of VACS, he will spend 60 days behind bars and has the right to post bail in the amount of 805,000 hryvnias.
2:15 p.m.: "It's better to change your shoes than not to wear them," said the Minister of Culture of Ukraine Oleksandr Tkachenko, describing the artists who returned from Russia to Ukraine and drastically changed their position.
● He also said that:
o The telethon will be disbanded only after the end of the war.
o Museums in Kherson and Mariupol were not evacuated because "Russian troops were advancing too quickly."
o The presenters from the former channels of the Medvedchuk pool resigned, and "became adequate".
2:58 pm: The prosecutor's office is conducting checks in the case of the former Odessa military commissar. We are probably talking about Yevhen Borisov.
● The Prosecutor General's Office reports that investigators are investigating the facts of possible illegal enrichment, evasion of military service and abuse of authority by the former head of the Odesa Regional Military Committee.
● Media information about the property of Borisov's family members abroad is also being checked.
4:32 p.m.: The SBU has notified more than 200 people of suspicion for distributing materials about the work of the Air Defense Forces, the SBU press service reported.
● "In fact, these persons helped the enemy prepare, carry out and adjust airstrikes on our territory, including with the use of cruise missiles and kamikaze drones. Regarding 190 of the participants, indictments have been sent to court. They face up to 12 years in prison." - says the message.
6:30 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with business representatives, where many urgent topics were discussed.
6:50 pm: Swedish eco-activist Greta Thunberg has arrived in Ukraine and is holding a press conference together with the head of the President's Office Yermak.
● Ex-Vice Prime Minister of Sweden, former European Commissioner for the Environment Margot Wallström, ex-President of Ireland, ex-head of the International Institute for Environment and Development Mary Robinson and Vice-President of the European Parliament Heidi Hautala also arrived in Ukraine.
● The press conference was devoted to the results of the first meeting of the newly created international working group on environmental crimes in Russia.
7:10 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyi met with the participants of the International Working Group on Environmental Crimes of Russia.
● "First of all, they discussed the catastrophic consequences of the Russian terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP," the president noted.
7:34 pm General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Today, the enemy used 6 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles against the objects of the civil infrastructure of the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Chuguyiv.
● In addition, during the day, the enemy carried out 23 airstrikes, carried out about 46 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marin directions - about 22 combat clashes took place during the day.
● The aviation of the defense forces struck 11 airstrikes on areas where the enemy's personnel were concentrated during the day.
● During the day, units of missile forces and artillery hit 2 control points, a radar station and an artillery unit in a firing position.
8:00 pm: A bail of 805,000 hryvnias was paid for the head of the Ternopil Regional Council, Mykhailo Golovka, and he was released from custody.
8:48 pm: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi held a meeting with ex-Vice President of the USA, Senator Mike Pence, who is visiting Ukraine for the first time since the beginning of full-scale Russian aggression.
● They discussed defense, interaction between our peoples, security cooperation and the importance of partners' determination and certainty regarding Ukraine's future membership in NATO.
10:13 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyi: Ukrainian soldiers, all our beautiful people really deserve the highest honors. Millions of our people are fighting and working for our freedom, the freedom we share with you - not only Ukrainian, but also all free nations. I am sure we will keep our freedom.
● And the Chatham House award for Ukraine is another proof that the world believes in Ukraine, believes in Ukrainians, believes in our victory.
10:24 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyi: Ukraine affects the power of Europe - this is a fact. And this year, on the basis of this and other similar facts, it is time to strengthen unity in Europe - in particular, the beginning of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the European Union.
● I am grateful to everyone who works for Ukraine, Ukrainians, who preserves and creates new jobs, who pays taxes and who is already preparing for our recovery - for the large-scale transformation program of Ukraine, which we will definitely implement after our victory.
10:41 pm: The service of changing the place of residence has returned to "Diya", said the Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov.
● "We have improved the service. That's why you will soon be able to change your place of residence in a few clicks without going to TsNAP or registration authorities," he said.
● The service can be used by women and children. Men, as before, must go to the military commissariat.
10:57 pm: The launch of "shaheed" from Primorsko-Akhtarsk was recorded. The approximate time of entry into the airspace of Ukraine is around one o'clock. This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
11:14 pm: Eight years behind bars will be spent by the "DPR" fighter, who was detained during the selection process for "Azov"
● Vladyslav Lyutynskyi, a resident of Donetsk region, defected to the enemy in 2015. On the side of the "pseudo-republic", he participated in the hostilities under Debaltsev, but in 2018 he got tired of fighting and left for the Russian Federation.
● Now he returned to Ukraine and decided to "get a job" at "Azov". During the attempt to pass the selection, he was detained by the SBU.
MORDOR – Russia
Friday June 30
12:17 am: PVK "Wagner" is still recruiting mercenaries throughout the Russian Federation for the war in Ukraine.
● Journalists of the BBC called dozens of numbers of recruitment centers in the Russian Federation. Everyone confirmed that "everything is as usual" and emphasized that the new members sign contracts with "Wagner" and not with the Ministry of Defense of Russia.
Thursday June 29
3:11 p.m.: "Wagner" will no longer fight in Ukraine, - the head of the GUR Kyrylo Budanov.
● "PEC "Wagner" will no longer participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. And this is the most effective unit of the Russian Federation, which knew how to achieve success at any cost," the head of intelligence said.
5:15 pm: Ukrainian military intelligence representative Andrii Chernyak said that the war between the FSB and the Russian Ministry of Defense is entering an active phase.
● "According to our estimates, this is already an open war between the so-called "towers" of the Kremlin, which will result in the physical destruction of representatives of the competing parties," Chernyak said.
6:10 pm: 1,184 Ukrainian children deported from the temporarily occupied territories were illegally handed over to "guardianship" by the Russians. This is three times more than the Russians declared publicly, - the Ministry of Reintegration.
SUMY
Thursday June 29
3:50 p.m.: The commander of the combined forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhiy Naev, called on residents of the border regions of Sumy Oblast to evacuate.
● "The Sumy direction remains the most dangerous in the Northern operational zone," said Serhiy Naev.
KHARKIV
Friday June 30
11:33 am Kharkiv RMA: During the past day, the Russians conducted artillery and mortar shelling of the border and front-line territories of the Kupyan and Chuguyiv districts of the region.
● This night in the village In Panyutine, a 13-year-old boy found an explosive device (probably a grenade) in his own yard, took it in his hands, after which the explosion occurred. Hospitalized with injuries.
● In the village Cherneshchyna, on the territory of an agricultural enterprise, a tractor was blown up by an unidentified explosive device. The tractor driver received minor injuries.
DONETSK
8:27 am: Donetsk region - air alert! - OVA
10:13 am Donetsk RMA: Russians shelled Vugledar 17 times, Novoukrainka and Bogoyavlenka under fire.
● Krasnohorivka, Ocheretino, Kostyantynivka, Toretska and Chasovoyarsk communities, Zvanivka and Lymansk communities were also under fire.
● In just one day, the number of Russian victims in Donetsk region increased by 2 wounded.
10:52 am: The staff of the destroyed pizzeria in Kramatorsk came to say goodbye to their fallen colleagues. Photo from social networks.
11:38 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kramatorsk district.
ZAPORIZHIA
Friday June 30
12:42 am: Movement of the Shahed-type UAV in the direction of Zaporizhzhia from the North. This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
12:48 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhzhia.
1:03 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Zaporizhzhia.
1:23 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Zaporizhzhia.
2:01 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv. Previously - air defense work.
2:13 am: Zaporozhye - ballistic shelling. This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
8:04 am Social Network: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Berdyansk.
9:38 am Zaporizhia RMA: Two civilians were killed - a 66-year-old woman in Novodanilivka, and a 66-year-old man in Malia Tokmachka. A 52-year-old woman, who was injured, was evacuated from Orihiv to a medical facility.
● the Russians chaotically attacked 16 settlements. They attacked the regional center at night. Objects of civil infrastructure were destroyed.
● 31 destroyed objects of the housing stock were added.
9:56 am: the Russians are reducing their presence on the territory of the ZANP, - GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
● Among the first to leave the station were three Rosatom employees, who managed the actions of the Russians. Ukrainian employees who signed a contract with Rosatom were also advised to evacuate. According to the instructions received, they should leave by July 5.
● Also, the number of military patrols is gradually decreasing on the territory of the ZNPP itself and in the town-satellite of the Energodari station. The personnel remaining at the station were instructed to "blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies."
Thursday June 29
4:51 pm: According to the materials of the SBU, the head of the occupation administration of the Zaporizhia region, Yevhen Balytskyi, was sentenced to 15 years in prison
● He was also ordered to confiscate his property. Balytskyi was found guilty on two counts — encroachment on the integrity of Ukraine and participation in pseudo-referendums. Currently, he is not in the controlled territory, so he will serve his sentence after detention.
11:54 pm: Zaporizhzhia region - missile danger, threat of use of attack UAVs. This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
DNIPRO
Friday June 30
12:01 am: Dnipropetrovsk region - threat of use of attack UAVs. This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
12:09 am: Movement of "Shakhed" type unmanned aerial vehicle from the South in the direction of Dnipro - Pavlograd. However, the direction of movement can change. This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
7:47 am Dnipro RMA: Russians shelled Nikopol during the night. Shells from heavy artillery flew there.
● People are unharmed. The consequences are clarified.
KHERSON
Friday June 30
9:05 am Kherson RMA: In the morning, Russian artillery attacked a residential quarter of Kherson
● A 72-year-old woman was seriously injured. She was hospitalized with chest and leg injuries, and doctors are providing the victim with the necessary assistance.
● The Russians also shelled the village of Mykhailivka in the Novoaleksandriv community. A 70-year-old man was injured by an artillery strike.
Thursday June 29
3:31 pm Kherson RMA: the Russian army shelled the residential quarters of Kherson. Two townspeople were killed, two more were injured.
● Houses, a medical facility, an official car, as well as a school where the Point of Invincibility was located came under fire.
MYKOLAIV
Friday June 30
2:30 am Mykolaiv RMA: A fire broke out in Mykolaiv due to the fall of UAV debris.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
https://t.me/uawarinfographics