Ukraine – 6/26/2023 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
June 26, 2023
Once Again - Thank you!
Once again, we would like to thank everyone who has supported us!
We will be sending our e-book covering the first week of Russia’s “Special Military Operation” on July 5th, to all those who have provided support through June 30th. To provide support for our work, you can click on the link HERE.
From Bohdan
“I would, following an hour’s viewing of Russian state propaganda tv channels via You Tube has to say that the lack of clear direction is forcing rashist tv channels to fill airtime with information ala Prigozhin. Two of the approved commentators said that Prigozhin is a popular figure with lots of public support. There were many more commentators critical of the war and openly asking whether it’s time to quit the effort.”
“Prior to Prigozhin, commentators who started with similar observations were cut off by the host. Almost Immediately. Yesterday they were allowed to speak and compete. Most unusual - it makes me wonder whether there are deeper fault lines waiting to come up for air.”
As you might imagine, trying to keep up with all the commentary about what happened in Russia starting last Friday is like trying to drink water out of a fire hose. Even as much, or more than the articles we attached to this email, for me these two short paragraphs speak more about what is now going on in Russia, and more importantly what may happen in Russia, than anything else I’ve read.
For me, Russian citizens get a vast majority of their information from television. The talk shows are major outlets for Russian propaganda. For these shows to now allow guests to voice concerns about the war, whereas before they were “cut off by the host,” speaks volumes. This is all being transmitted to millions of Russian viewers, a large cohort of whom have either lost members of their family in Ukraine or know other families who did.
My former boss in Kyiv is married to a Russian. She used to go back to Russia a few times a year, for a couple of months at a time, to take care of her ailing mother. He once told me that after 2 months of watching Russian propaganda about Ukraine, when she got back to the U.S. he had to do what amounted to de-programming his wife. Imagine what happens to Russians.
Two Tweets
Since Elon Musk’s adoption of the “blue check,” allowing Twitter users to send out longer Tweets, it has become a good source of information.
Financing of the Wagner Group – Anton Gerashchenko is an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Interior. Yesterday, he sent out a fascinating tweet describing the financing of the Wagner Group. Gerashchenko estimates that it costs the Russian State between $250 and $350 million, per month, to support Wagner’s military operations. Given the events of last weekend, including the raid on Wagner’s Headquarters in St. Petersburg, will this level of support continue?
Kadyrovite Execution of an Alleged Wagner Fighter – This Tweet asks the following questions:
3) I wrote earlier about Putin having two choices: going nuclear and hanging everyone he thinks is a traitor; or, firing Shoigu, blaming him for everything, and making Prigozhin a hero who saved Russia. If this video is correct, (that a Wagner fighter was executed), Putin chose the first option.
4) If Putin decided to kill all of the Wagnerites, Russia is going to collapse. The Wagner group are heroes to the Russian people for both their fighting skills and among the soldiers and much of the population for challenging Putin and Shoigu and the way they have needlessly killed 10's of thousands of them. This will also cause some of the regular army soldiers to revolt, surrender or join in the mutiny.
5) If the Kadyrovites did this on their own, which I currently doubt, then they may have tipped the war irreversibly in favor of Ukraine.
6) Putin always escalates.
It’s important to read every bit of Freedman’s latest report on what happened in Russia last weekend but, for those who can’t, below are his conclusions:
“First, what has been said cannot be unsaid. Prigozhin’s allegations are true: the case for war was fabricated and the strategies followed have been calamitous, with many dead as a result. Some of this will have been heard by ordinary Russians as they watched these events unfold.”
“Second, Putin must be wondering whether it is a good idea to have so much of his army committed to the fight in Ukraine. There has already been the embarrassment of Belgorod where far-right anti-Putin Russians entered the territory from Ukraine and caused mayhem with little resistance. Moscow has now suddenly appeared vulnerable to a well-armed but far-from-numerous gang. Back to Putin’s paranoia, and a worldview in which his enemies are in collusion, might he not want reinforcements closer to hand should there be more hostile acts on Russian territory?”
“Lastly, when his options looked bad, he chose negotiation, showing little interest in martyrdom and leaving flight as his last resort. He agreed a deal that made a nonsense of his promises to punish the mutineers. If he was irresolute in this case, then might he be so in another? If the fighting takes another turn for the worse, can he really afford to reject negotiations when there is no serious hope of incorporating the claimed chunk of Ukraine into the Russian Federation? A lot of recent thinking about the likely course of the war assumed Putin’s intransigence and his ability to cope with regular setbacks so long as Russia could stay in the war. That assumption will be easier to challenge.”
“Putin cares about his survival, whether from Covid or coups. The unintended consequences of this war are now threatening his regime. Any suggestion that he wants to get out of the war will aggravate the image of weakness; sticking with the war regardless of losses will aggravate his actual weaknesses.”
I’m not a Russia expert, but 2 things seem to be obvious: Russia is vulnerable to both a land and an air attack; Russia’s case for war was fabricated. Both have been made clear, by Prigozhin’s actions and speeches, respectively and, as Bohdan has pointed out, so are the Russian talking heads.
Snyder’s 10 Conclusions from the events of last weekend:
1. Putin is not popular.
2. Prigozhin was a threat to Putin, because he does much the same things that Putin does, and leverages Putin's own assets. Both the Russian state itself and Prigozhin's mercenary firm Wagner are extractive regimes with large public relations and military arms.
3. Prigozhin told the truth about the war.
4. Russia is far less secure than it was before invading Ukraine.
5. When backed into a corner, Putin saves himself.
6. The top participants were fascists, and fascists can feud.
7. The division in Russia was real, and will likely endure.
8. One of Putin's crimes against Russia is his treatment of the opposition…. “The point is that their (the opposition’s) imprisonment and exile meant that they could do little to advance their own ideas for Russia's future on what would otherwise have been an excellent occasion to do so. The Putin regime is obviously worn out, but there is no one around to say so, and to propose something better than another aging fascist.
9. This was a preview of how the war in Ukraine ends….. “Moscow elites who think ahead should want those troops (in Ukraine) withdrawn now. On its present trajectory, Russia is likely to face an internal power struggle sooner rather than later. That is how wars end: when the pressure is felt inside the political system. Those who want this war to end should help Ukrainians exert that pressure.”
10. (my bold face) Events in Russia (like events in Ukraine) are in large measure determined by the choices of Russians (or Ukrainians). In the US we have the imperialist habit of denying agency to both parties in this conflict. Far too many people seem to think that Ukrainians are fighting because of the US or NATO, when in fact the situation is entirely the opposite: it was Ukrainian resistance that persuaded other nations to help. Far too many people still think the US or NATO had something to do with Putin's personal decision to invade Ukraine, when in fact the character of the Russian system (and Putin's own words) provide us with more than enough explanation.
Some of those people are now claiming that Prigozhin's putsch was planned by the Americans, which is silly. The Biden administration has quite consistently worked against Wagner. Prigozhin's main American connection was his hard work, as head of Russia's Internet Research Agency, to get Trump elected in 2016. Others are scrambling to explain Prigozhin's march on Moscow and its end as some kind of complex political theater, in which the goal was to move Prigozhin and Wagner to Belarus to organize a strike on Ukraine from the north. This is ludicrous. If Prigozhin actually does go to Belarus, there is no telling what he might improvise there. But the idea of such a plan makes no sense. If Putin and Prigozhin were on cooperative terms, they could have simply agreed on such a move in a way that would not have damaged both of their reputations (and left Russia weaker).
Putin choose to invade Ukraine for reasons that made sense to him inside the system he built. Prigozhin resisted Putin for reasons that made sense to him as someone who had profited from that system from the inside. The mutiny was a choice within Putin's war of choice, and it exemplifies the disaster Putin has brought to his country.
Meanwhile – News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” discusses the theory of the Wagners using the March on Moscow to re-position, and attack Ukraine from the north (Belarus), or the northeast (toward Kharkiv). He also reports on further Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut, and a Ukrainian crossing of the Dnieper River, opposite Kherson City. Meanwhile, the war goes on.
6/26/2023 Sitrep (My comments in bold face)
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon June 25 to 12:00 noon June 26, 2023
With all due respect to Bohdan, I still prefer the opening scene of the movie, “The Wild Bunch”
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Monday June 26
12:10 am: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the chaos caused by the mutiny of the leader of the "Wagner" PVK Prigozhyn could continue for several more weeks or months.
· According to him, tensions in Russia have been growing for several months, and the effectiveness of the Russian military in Ukraine may be jeopardized.
· "We know that Putin will have to answer for many weeks and months to come," the US secretary of state said.
12:54 am: In Germany, graffiti was created with the Hero of Ukraine Oleksandr Matsievsky
· The image was painted on a surviving piece of the Berlin Wall.
8:36 am: The US Coast Guard has launched an investigation into the circumstances of the Titan bathyscaphe disaster in the Atlantic Ocean, Coast Guard Rear Admiral John Mauger.
8:36 am: Prigozhin's failed military coup shows Putin's weakness and the West's outdated perception of him, Times.
9:59 am: NATO will have to strengthen its eastern flank if Belarus accepts Prigozhin's PMC "Vagner" as chairman, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, quoted by The Guardian.
· According to him, Lithuania will allocate more resources, including to foreign intelligence, to know "the political and security aspects of Belarus."
· Given the history, it seems that the decision to send 4,000 German troops to Lithuania, albeit under NATO command, is a huge development.
10:11 am: Australia has announced a new package of military aid to Ukraine, the head of the President's Office said. Will send:
· 28 M113 armored vehicles.
· 14 special purpose vehicles.
· 70 military vehicles.
· 14 trailers;
· 28 medium trucks.
· Artillery ammunition caliber 105 mm.
Sunday June 25
1:57 pm: Latvia, together with Lithuania, Estonia and Finland, is coordinating increased border control measures, including a joint decision to close the borders with Russia and Belarus if necessary.
· Latvian President Edgars Rinkevičs announced this on local television.
· The politician also said that there is no need for such measures now, but the readiness to respond is increased due to the potential instability of the situation in both neighboring countries. At the same time, Latvia does not plan to revise the established restrictions on crossing the border and the procedure for issuing visas to citizens of Russia.
2:18 pm: "The myth of the unity of Putin's Russia has been destroyed. This internal escalation has divided the Russian military. This is the inevitable result when you support and finance a legion of mercenaries," said Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.
· He said this in an interview with Il Messaggero. He also noted that due to the events that took place, the Russian army became weaker.
4:00 pm: President of Kazakhstan Tokayev held an extraordinary meeting of the Security Council in connection with the situation in Russia, the press service of the president reported.
· He instructed the heads of departments of his country to be ready to respond to possible threats of crisis situations.
5:54 pm British MoD: Over the past three weeks, British fighter jets have intercepted 21 Russian aircraft flying near NATO airspace. During this time, NATO raised planes into the air six times.
10:17 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyi reported on the conversation with Joseph Biden.
· The presidents discussed the course of hostilities and processes taking place in Russia.
· Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the US President for his unwavering support for Ukraine, especially for the Patriots.
· In addition, during the conversation, the leaders of the countries coordinated positions on the eve of the Vilnius NATO summit, discussed the continuation of work on the implementation of the Ukrainian peace formula and preparations for the Global Peace Summit.
NATIONAL
Monday June 26
12:31 am: Guerrillas from the "Atesh" group called Crimea their main base.
· "Crimea is our main base, we have eyes here at every corner. We record any movement of the Rashists, their equipment or ships. They will take the ships out of Crimea or bury them in the Sevastopol Bay," the partisans assured.
1:58 am: Threat of launching Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea. This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
6:32 am: Activity of enemy tactical aviation in the waters of the Sea of Azov, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
7:43 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the Russians are concentrating their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marinka directions - 36 combat clashes took place during the day.
· In the Kupyansk direction, they carried out offensive actions in the area west of Kryvoshiivka, Luhansk region, without success. On the Zaporizhia and Kherson directions, the Russians are concentrating their main efforts on preventing the advance of our troops. They unsuccessfully tried to restore the lost position in the Novodarivka district of the Zaporizhzhia region.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces per day struck 8 airstrikes on areas where Russian personnel were concentrated. Also, 6 operational-tactical reconnaissance UAVs were destroyed.
· During the day, units of missile troops and artillery hit 2 control points, 3 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment, 4 ammunition depots, an EW station, 10 artillery units in firing positions and 3 more important targets.
· At night, air defense forces destroyed two Kalibr cruise missiles and 7 Shahed-type attack UAVs
· In addition, the Russians attacked from the north with four unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type (probably attack). All drones are destroyed.
9:17 am: Since the start of the counteroffensive, the freed area in the south is 130 square kilometers.
· This was stated by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Hanna Malyar.
10:46 am: Ukraine advances in Bakhmut area, British intelligence.
· During the operation involving several brigades, Ukrainian forces made progress on both the northern and southern flanks of the city.
· "There is little evidence that Russia has any significant operational reserves of land forces that could be used to strengthen the countermeasures against the multiple threats it currently faces in sectors far apart from each other, from Bakhmut to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, over 200 km," the British Ministry of Defense notes.
11:21 am: The SBU detained another Russian informant who was gathering intelligence about the defense of the South Ukrainian NPP. This is the second exposed agent of the Russian special services who "hunted" for this strategic object in 2023.
· In particular, he was interested in the exact coordinates of the placement of military formations that ensure the defense of the NPP and the satellite city of Yuzhnoukrain.
· The Russians needed classified information to prepare targeted missile strikes.
Sunday June 25
12:19 pm: Ukraine resumed large-scale offensive operations in three directions. The ZSU conducts an offensive slowly, but with stable results in key areas of the front, — British intelligence
· Ukraine is planning breakthroughs based on the experience of the previous two weeks. At the same time, the Russian attacks in the Kreminna area reflect the same mindset of the Russian generals as before - to attack in every case, when the opportunity is presented. Ukrainian fighters prevented any breakthroughs on this part of the front.
12:37 pm: "It is an honor for me to keep the chevrons of our soldiers. Some of them were given to me at the front, some were given to me by relatives of heroes who gave their lives for Ukraine. Everyone is important. Everyone deserves that Ukraine knows and remembers whose fates become a victory.
· Last month, on Marine Corps Day, the Marines presented me with their flag, commemorative plaque and Marine Corps chevrons at the forward positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Great gratitude and great pride for what kind of defenders we have, what kind of people we have, what kind of Ukraine we have.
3:10 pm: As of June 25, 2023, there are 4 enemy ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, of which 1 is a Kalibr cruise missile carrier, there is no ammunition on the carrier, 0 missiles, the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
6:19 pm: The situation on the border with Belarus is stable and under control, Serhii Nayev, commander of the United Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
· "Our troops continue to build up defense equipment. All services, from intelligence to engineering troops, are working in an intensified mode. Currently, there is no increase in equipment or manpower of the enemy. The state border is under reliable protection 24/7," he emphasized.
· At the same time, Nayev noted that any attempt to cross the border would be suicide for the enemy troops, because the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to give a decent fight back.
7:19 pm General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Tonight, the enemy fired 6 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles at civilian objects on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region.
· In addition, during the day, he carried out 25 airstrikes, and carried out more than 30 rounds of anti-aircraft fire at the positions of our troops and populated areas.
· The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Lymansky, Bakhmutsky and Marinsky directions - more than 20 combat clashes took place during the day.
· The aviation of the defense forces struck 6 strikes on enemy personnel concentration areas during the day. Also, our defenders destroyed a reconnaissance UAV of operational-tactical level.
· During the day, units of missile troops and artillery hit the control post, 3 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment, an ammunition warehouse, a EW station and 3 enemy artillery units in firing positions.
7:55 p.m.: The Ukrainian military destroyed almost three companies of Russians in a day in the Tavria direction. At the same time, five enemy ammunition depots were destroyed.
· Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the operational and strategic group of troops "Tavria", stated this.
· He added that 16 units of the enemy's military equipment were also destroyed. In particular, a tank, two BBMs, two UAVs "Orlan-10", UAV Zala, howitzer 2A65 "Msta-B", RSZV BM-27 "Uragan".
11:15 pm: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy regions - missile danger. This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
11:40 pm: Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov called the current maneuvers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "a kind of preparatory operation" and emphasized that the current actions are not a "main offensive" and are not a blitzkrieg.
· "This 2023 will be a turning point in the war with Russia," he said, answering the question of when Ukraine would win the war.
MORDOR – Russia
Sunday June 25
12:56 pm: the Russians used banned chemical weapons near Maryinka in Donetsk region, the spokesman for the Defense Forces of the Tavrya Region, Valery Shershen, said.
· "Terrorists of the Russian Federation dropped a prohibited aerosol munition of suffocating action on one of the positions of the Armed Forces. However, the wind was blowing in the direction of the enemy," he noted.
1:35 pm: Russians are repairing the Chongar bridge on the border with Crimea. Video from social networks.
· The so-called "authority" of the peninsula declares that the passage of the road bridge will be restored in the coming days.
2:44 pm: Prigozhin can launch a "Wagner" attack on Kyiv from the territory of Belarus, according to British general and member of the House of Lords Richard Dannatt.
· "The fact that he went to Belarus causes some concern," he said.
· According to Dannat, if Prigozhin "kept combat-capable combat forces around him, he again poses a threat to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv."
3:36 pm: Foreign components, which Russia uses to produce weapons, get to the aggressor state through countries that have not joined the Western sanctions, said the representative of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitskyi.
· Skibitskyi noted that several components for the military industry of the aggressor enter the Russian Federation under the guise of household goods.
· "In some countries, the Russian Federation creates either joint enterprises or opens enterprises that exist for one day, one week: products are imported, and then this enterprise disappears," explained the representative of military intelligence of Ukraine.
4:54 pm: Russia has completed preparations to blow up the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The plan of the terrorist attack has already been approved - the only thing missing is the order to carry it out - head of the GUR Kyrylo Budanov in his interview with the British magazine New Statesman
· "The cooling reservoir of the plant was mined by Russian troops. Without cooling, nuclear reactors can melt down in a period of ten hours to 14 days. Russia will be able to increase the voltage in the power supply lines to the station, which will lead to a nuclear accident in a short time. The situation has never been as serious as it is now," Budanov is quoted as saying by the British publication.
· Russia can blow up the power plant if its forces are knocked out of the left bank of the Dnieper. Then Russia will create an exclusion zone to prevent Ukraine from advancing. It can also be a threat not to advance on Russian positions.
11:07 pm: An Iranian Il-76TD cargo plane landed at Vnukovo airport. Tehran-Moscow flight.
· Military cargo is likely to be on board the aircraft. This is reported in the local mass media.
· Earlier, the press secretary of OC "South" Nataliya Gumenyuk reported that the Russians are conducting reconnaissance and are once again preparing for new missile and drone attacks.
Impact on Civilians from 12:00 June 25 to 12:00 June 26
Number of air alarms 32
rocket/UAV strikes 3 bomb strikes artillery or mortar strikes 14
Civilian Casualties Killed – Wounded 2
KYIV
Monday June 26
7:10 am: Rescuers stopped the search operation in a high-rise building in the Solomyanskyi district of Kyiv — head of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine Serhii Kruk
· "Rescuers managed to evacuate 24 people from a 25-story building that was hit by an enemy attack. Unfortunately, five people died. My condolences," he said.
Sunday June 25
1:17 pm: There are no mass blackouts in Kyiv, — DTEK.
· "As of 12:30 p.m., there are small local outages in the Solomyansk district. There are also local outages related to planned works in the Solomyansk and Darnytskyi districts," the report says.
SUMY
Sunday June 25
11:04 am Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, the Russians carried out 4 attacks on border communities. 49 explosions were recorded
· Esmansk, Seredino-Budsk, and Bilopolsk communities came under fire. Previously - without human losses and destruction of civil infrastructure.
LUHANSK
Sunday June 25
4:03 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Luhansk.
4:10 p.m.: Local media release video of the explosion in temporarily occupied Luhansk.
DONETSK
Monday June 26
12:19 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region.
11:30 am: Explosions are heard in Slovyansk, Donetsk region.
ZAPORIZHIA
Monday June 26
2:27 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhzhia.
9:31 am Zaporizhia RMA: Russian troops carried out 52 strikes on 14 towns and villages of the Zaporizhia region.
· Added 38 new reports about the destruction of civilian objects. At night in Preobrazhenka, experts rescued a 73-year-old man and a 77-year-old woman from under the rubble of a house and quickly transferred the victims to doctors.
DNIPRO
Monday June 26
10:28 am Dnipro RMA: Since yesterday evening, the Russians have struck Nikopol three times. Shells from heavy artillery hit Nikopol itself and the Marganets community.
· There are no dead or injured. The survey of the territory continues.
Kherson
Monday June 26
S 9:39 am Kherson RMA: The Russian army hit the Kherson region with prohibited incendiary ammunition.
· In the morning, the Russians set fire to the residential quarters of Kherson and Antonivka. As a result of the shelling, residential buildings burned down, water pipes, gas pipes and critical infrastructure were damaged.
· The fires were extinguished. Peaceful people were not harmed.
Sunday June 25
2:29 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
2:43 pm: Kherson region - air alarm, OVA.
4:49 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
8:16 p.m.: The Russian army is trying to return to the positions it occupied before the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant was blown up, but it is forced to demine the territories it mined before, - the spokeswoman of OK "South" Nataliya Humenyuk.
· According to Humenyuk, it is difficult for the Russians on the left bank today, because they have very large interruptions with drinking water, and their logistics are not secured.
9:37 pm Social Networks: Explosions were heard in the Kherson region.
ODESA
Monday June 26
2:00 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Odesa.
7:28 am Operational Command South: At night, the Russian Federation attacked Odesa region with Kalibrami and kamikaze drones.
· Two Calibers were shot down on approach to the coastal zone. Due to the blast wave during the work of shooting down drones, windows in two apartment buildings were damaged. There are no injured. Other details of the attack are being clarified.
TERNOPIL
Monday June 26
11:37 am: The head of the Ternopil Regional Council and two of her deputies were detained for extortion and bribery, - NABU*
· The detainees demanded almost UAH 1.8 million. from the owner of the enterprise for signing acts of completed works on the construction and repair of infrastructure objects by the communal enterprise of the Ternopil Regional Council.
· After the transfer of the third tranche in the amount of over UAH 600,000. activists were detained.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.