Bob Homans June 20

20220621

Ukraine – 6/20 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
June 20, 2022

The Latest Denis

In his latest report, Denis brings up the possibility of troops from Belarus invading Ukraine from the north.   Personally, I don’t see it happening, but Ukraine must account for the passivity.  The reason I’m skeptical is that I think there is a good chance that if Belarus does invade Ukraine, that once they cross the border most Belarusian soldiers would defect.   This would leave Lukashenka open to civil action directed at ending his rule.

No-Fly Zone Over Western Ukraine

Poland is considering imposing a “No-Fly Zone” over Western Ukraine.   Romania, that shares a border with Ukraine in the southwest, may also be involved.   If Romania does join, the no-fly zone would then include the Danube Delta, which Ukraine and Poland share, including 2 ports in Ukraine that may be used to export Ukrainian grain.

A Great Leasing Story

In my “other life,” I have over a 35-year career in equipment finance.   In addition to founding my own finance company in the United States, I have worked on equipment finance projects in 14 countries around the World, including Ukraine, mostly under the auspices of international development banks and bi-lateral aid institutions.   When not writing these emails, I am still active.   Today, I heard about a great leasing story that is too good not to share.

A friend of mine is Commercial Director of the Ukrainian operation of an international equipment leasing company.   Soon after the start of the war the CEO, who is Ukrainian, disappeared.  Nobody knew how to reach him.   This left my friend and her colleague in nominal charge of the company.   Using their authority, they proceeded to release to the war effort all the vehicles that their company has repossessed, plus all the new vehicles that they have in their inventory.   Likely, all this amounted to several hundred vehicles.   The CEO later re-appeared, but there isn’t much he can do.   After all, he was guilty of leaving his post.

A couple of weeks ago, I included a solicitation from a mortar team operating near Kharkiv.  They needed three pickup trucks, to allow them to quickly move, to prevent Russians from locking onto their location.   Largely because of all of you, they were able to acquire 2 of the 3 trucks they needed.   I have now put them in touch with my friend in the leasing company, as a possible source of the additional truck that they are looking for.

God bless them!

6/20 Sitrep

Diamonds are the hardest natural material, but graphite is the most resilient.  A diamonds’ crystalline structure shatters under a light well placed blow. No amount of pressure or blows destroys the flat matrix structure of graphite.

Although made of identical matter the organization of matter is what counts. 

Ukraine and Russia are made of identical matter, people. Russia is the diamond, and Ukraine graphite.  Ukraine’s light blows are causing shattering and eventual complete destruction.  Russia is pressuring, and increasing pressure without affecting Ukraine’s flat matrix organizational structure. 

The difference in human organization enables a completely different conduct of war.  Russia’s crystalline rigidity is only capable of head on fighting.  Our tactical flexibility is forcing Russia to diffuse its effort and thereby mitigating its advantage.  Russia brought this war to us but we are taking it to them.

INTERNATIONAL

ARD:  Head of the European Commission:  Ukraine will receive the status of a candidate for the European Union, preparations for this are going well.  According to the head of the EC, Ukraine has done a lot of work in eight years, as evidenced by the data and facts on which the EU decision will be based.

Commission of the Russian Federation for the Protection of Sovereignty:  NATO began the blockade of the Russian region with the help of Lithuania, it is a direct aggression against Russia, forcing us to resort to self-defense.

●        The UN needs to rectify the situation with the blockade of Kaliningrad, or Russia will be free to resolve the issue of transit in any way.

Historian and lecturer at Warsaw University:  Poles are no longer afraid of the Russian attack.  The reason is Ukraine's success in the war with the Russian Federation.  Back in March, 55% of Poles were afraid that Russia would soon attack their country, and at the end of May this figure dropped to 35%.

CNN: "I would bet on the Ukrainians" - ex-CIA director on who will win the war.  David Petraeus predicts a counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after Russia spends its forces in the Donbas.

A new package of military assistance to Ukraine from the Australian government includes more than 285 million Australian dollars, Bushmaster protected mobile vehicles, M777 howitzers, as well as anti-tank weapons, ammunition, unmanned aerial systems and personal equipment.

AdnKronos: Italy will be able to survive the winter without Russian gas, – the head of the Eni oil and gas group.

President of Kazakhstan:  It was not Russia that saved Kazakhstan, but the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).  He reminded the Russian Federation that one should not try on the role of a "savior", because no one is going to "serve and bow at the feet."

●        Russia stops shipment of Kazakh oil after Tokayev's statements at the SPIEF, while Kazakhstan blocks 1,700 wagons with Russian coal on its territory.  It is noted that Russia imposed restrictions on the shipment of Kazakh oil for export after criticizing the country's President Kasim Tokayev at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

●        President of Kazakhstan said that if the country does not imitate anti-Russian restrictions, then secondary restrictive measures will be introduced.  Despite this, work with Moscow will continue.

Wall Street Journal:  Germany is reopening coal-fired power plants and is offering incentives to companies to limit gas consumption.

Occupied Crimea Senator: Türkiye is playing a double game in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.  He drew attention to the fact that Ankara is supplying Ukraine with Bayraktar-TB2 drones, while closing the Bosphorus Strait for warships during the "special operation" of the Russian Federation.

Spanish mass media: The chain of Mango clothes stores is finally leaving the Russian market.

The EU may revoke Ukraine's candidate status if Ukraine fails to meet its obligations.  This decision applies equally to Ukraine and Moldova.

Bild:   The new head of the Munich Security Conference and former diplomatic adviser to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, called former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev a clown.  Medvedev is a clown today, sorry I have to say it out loud.

BNR:  The first test supply of Azerbaijani gas from Greece to Bulgaria via the Greece-Bulgaria connecting pipeline has started.

Süddeutsche Zeitung:  German Chancellor in an interview agreed in principle with the policy of reconciliation of his predecessor Angela Merkel with Russia.  An attempt to reconcile can never be a mistake, as can an attempt to find a common language peacefully. ""I see myself as close to my predecessor,"" - he said.

Official website of the Severodvinsk administration: In Russia, women are offered to enlist in the military under a contract, including those who are not in the reserve.  Men and women who are not in reserve, as well as foreigners between the ages of 18 and 30 who are legally on Russian territory, can enter the contract military service.

TVP:  Polish Ministry of Culture - Poland also does not agree that Ukraine was deprived of the right to host Eurovision 2023.  In Poland, they assure that they are ready to help Ukraine with the organization of Eurovision next year.

Russian Media: In St. Petersburg, a statue of Vladimir Putin in the image of Emperor Octavian Augustus was targeted by a paintball gun.  The shooters identified themselves as the Committee of Republican Socialists.

The governor of the Kursk region, Russia, said that today the drone dropped ammunition near the village of Kucherov, the house was slightly damaged, no one was injured.

●        Bryansk governor in the morning, the Russian village of Suzemka in the Bryansk region came under fire. Power lines damaged. An employee of the RES was injured, he has a slight shrapnel wound.

The Independent:  The new head of the British army, has called for an army capable of defeating Russia. "There is an urgent need to create an army capable of fighting with our allies and defeating Russia in battle."

Russia refuses to recognize the death of 27 members of the crew of the cruiser "Moscow ". The crew members, including 19 conscripts, are still listed as missing.  The FSB officers, having learned about the desire of the relatives of the victims to cooperate with the media, began to carry out explanatory work. They face criminal charges for divulging state secrets.

Russian Ministry of Defense:  Russia admitted 1.9 million Ukrainians from the start of the invasion of which 300 thousand are children.

NATIONAL

Institute for the Study of War: -

●        Russian troops are likely to conduct false flag artillery attacks on Russian-controlled territory of Ukraine to dampen Ukrainian sentiment, encourage mobilization, and build local hostility towards the AFU

●        Successful AFU counterattacks in the Zaporizhzhia region are forcing Russian troops to send reinforcements to this weakened sector of the front line.

●        The Russians are focusing on reinforcing defensive positions along the southern direction due to recent successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.

●         Russian troops continue to prepare to launch an offensive on Slavyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Liman.

●        The pinned-down Russian artillery, combined with the supposedly small infantry units, remains insufficient to advance Russia within Severodonetsk.

Polsatnews:  Ukrainian Defense Minister - An exhibition of Russian military equipment destroyed in Ukraine will be held in EU capitals.  He noted that Russian generals want their tanks to be in Lisbon. "We will help Russian tanks to be in Europe, but as wreckage," - Reznikov said.

President's Office:  “We know they are alive. As for the conditions, this issue is also being monitored. We can't say exactly in what conditions. But we know for sure that they are alive, about Azovstal defenders.  He also assured that the CDI is keeping it under control, and there is a connection with some prisoners. The liberation process does not stop.

●        Payments of salaries, pensions and all kinds of assistance are planned in the temporarily occupied territories. Our main goal is the de-occupation of these territories.

●        The probability of the Belarusian army massively participating in the war is not very high precisely because of the mood of the Belarusian people.

●        Abramovich helped in solving humanitarian issues, humanitarian corridors and freeing people.

●        Journalist Nevzorov is recently irritating the current Russian authorities by telling the truth about the crimes of Russians in Ukraine. His voice is heard by millions of Russians, and it is important to us that he destroys the narratives of Russian propaganda.

Speaker of the Air Force:  Ukrainian aviation destroyed a company-tactical group of Russian troops and one of the command centers of the Russian Federation, and anti-aircraft gunners of the Air Force shot down a drone.

Ukrainian journalist: Over the past week, during the battles for Severodonetsk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed about 30 servicemen of the Akhmat special rapid reaction detachment (Republic of Chechnya), which is part of the National Guard, more than 47 people were injured.

Onet: Brigadier General -  Poland can provide air defense of the western regions of Ukraine if Russia continues rocket attacks.

Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation: Men from the IT industry may be allowed to leave Ukraine for a short period of time.  Also, according to him, a system for booking personnel from mobilization is being prepared.

The New York Times identified more than 2,000 munitions used in Ukraine since the start of the war and concluded that most of them were unguided.  At the same time, according to journalists, 210 of the identified munitions are prohibited by international treaties.

Minister of Culture:  Ukraine is appealing against the postponement of Eurovision.  "We consider this decision to be unfair, incorrect, inconsistent with the principles of Eurovision".

Foreign Minister: There are conditions in Ukraine for the resumption of work of McDonald's, the company is being actively persuaded to return.  "A few weeks ago, we established contact with the Ukrainian office, and then with the headquarters of McDonald's in the United States. We also raised this issue in official contacts with the US government, because McDonald's is one of the most famous American brands. The process is moving".

Crimea occupation authority closed a car service in the annexed Crimea, where they refused to service the car of the Russian military.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

07:41 June 20

●        On Donetsk direction, the Russian troops continue to concentrate their main efforts on the Severodonetsk and Bakhmut directions. Fighting continues to establish full control over the city Severodonetsk.

●        In the Yuzhnobuh direction, the Russians are concentrating their efforts on holding occupied lines and preventing the offensive of Ukrainian troops.

●        5 carriers of sea-based cruise missiles are in readiness for launching missile strikes on targets on the territory of Ukraine.

18:51 June 19

●        In the Kharkiv direction, the Russians intensively fired at the positions of Ukrainian troops from cannon and missile artillery. They conducted a skirmish around ​​the village of Rubizhne, failed.

●        In the Severodonetsk direction, the Russian army conducts round-the-clock aerial reconnaissance using the 'Orlan-10' UAV.

●        The Russians are conducting assault operations to establish complete control over Severodonetsk, hostilities continue, the enemy is failing.

●        Russian troops are building up the air defense system in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region.

●        In the Bakhmut direction, the Russian troops launched airstrikes with helicopters near Yakovlivka and missile strikes in the areas of Travneve, Dolomytne, Zaitseve and New York.

●        On the eastern outskirts of the village of Berestovew, the Ukrainian military successfully repulsed an enemy assault.

The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament - ed.) at today's meeting supported Ukraine's withdrawal from a number of agreements with Russia and the CIS.

●        Adopted a law according to which the salaries of Ukrainian defenders will not be subject to military tax.  However, this measure will be valid only for the period of martial law in the country.

Social Media:  Video of the International Legion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroying a Russian tank with the help of a Javelin.

●        The Georgian Legion, fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has published a video clip of the battles for Severodonetsk.

Mayor of Chernihiv:  The mayor of Chernihiv is being prevented from going to Poland to sign an agreement on assistance to Chernihiv: “This is a discredit of the President.”  He attributes this to a political attack on him by one of the members of the President's Office.

●        What happened, I associate with a political attack on me by one of the employees of the President's Office. This is the tyranny of responsible officials who thus impede my professional activities in favor of Chernihiv, and most importantly, they discredit the President with such actions, demonstrating signs of telephone law on the border.

Ministry of Internal Affairs: Ukrainians will be able to get a passport or identity documents abroad.  The government has adopted a pilot project that will allow Ukrainians to receive ID-cards and passports if they are outside the country. In which countries it will be possible to use such a service is still being determined.

●        Yesterday, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the command and reconnaissance center of the 20th Army of the Russian Federation in the Kharkiv region.

Financial Times: Minister of Infrastructure:  The fuel situation will stabilize by the fall, as Ukraine by this time will conclude a large number of long-term contracts with foreign suppliers.  Due to the current deficit, Ukraine is forced to buy fuel in the Netherlands and Belgium.

By a vote of 303 in favor Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) banned Russian music in the Ukrainian media and public space.  The parliament also banned the import and distribution of books and other publishing products from Russia, Belarus, and the Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine.

Voice of America: US Ambassador said:  "Ukraine is not defeated, and we will continue to support Ukraine as much as we need."

Ministry of Internal Affairs:  Russia is trying to break through to Kharkіv and make it a front-line city.

UN Goodwill Ambassador Ben Stiller, an actor best known for a night in the Museum is in Lviv..

State Security Service:  A captured POW from occupied Donbas went to fight against Ukraine so as not to be imprisoned for theft.  After 3 days of fighting, he surrendered to the AFU. This is not our war, there is no point in continuing it, - said the prisoner.

Intercepted Conversations

13:03 June 19:  No, mom! a Russian soldier explains to his mother that he wants to return from the war in Ukraine at any cost. The Russian says he will stay in the war for at least six months. Previous promises of a three-month deadline will not be fulfilled. Therefore, look for an opportunity to resign in any way.

CHERNIHIV

Regional Military Administration:  Issues a warning that strikes on railway infrastructure facilities in the Chernihiv region are possible.

SUMY

Regional Military Administration:  Announced the mortar shelling of the Seredino-Budskaya community. According to preliminary data, there are no casualties, information about the destruction is being specified.

UPD: Regional Prosecutor's office:  A 48-year-old woman was injured in mortar shelling by the Russian Federation in the Sumy region, at least 10 houses were damaged, critical infrastructure, electrical support and wires were broken.

KHARKIV

Regional Military Administration:  Eight wounded, including three children because of yesterday’s shelling of Kharkiv and the region.

Kharkiv Mayor canceled a planned trip to Madrid due to increased shelling of the city.  "I need to be in the city for more effective coordination with the military for the defense of Kharkiv", – he says.

LUHANSK

Regional Military Administration:  Today, the Russians tried to make a breakthrough in the Toshkivka area, they even succeeded, but after the work of the Ukrainian artillery, they were defeated.

●        Heavy fighting continues in Severodonetsk. The Russians are trying to capture the city completely, but they fail, and they suffer massive losses.

●        In Severodonetsk, the territory of the Stekloplastik plant and the rescue site came under Russian fire.

●        The Russians carried out air strikes by Su-25 aircraft near Belaya Gora and Myrna Dolyna.

National Police: During the day, the Russian troops fired 18 times at the settlements of the Luhansk region; there are dead and wounded. As a result of shelling by the Russians, 31 infrastructure facilities were damaged or destroyed. The Russian Federation used artillery, aircraft and missiles.

Local media:  In the village Metelkyno near Severodonetsk, where fierce fighting has been going on in recent days, the Virtuoso equestrian sports complex burned down as a result of shelling by Russian troops. All the horses died.

DONETSK

Regional Military Administration:  Two civilians were killed in the Donetsk region because of military actions of the Russian Federation today, 12 more were injured.

Social Media: In the center of occupied Donetsk, the whistling of shells and powerful explosions can be heard.

Adviser to the mayor of Mariupol:  In Mariupol. Russians continue to hide military equipment in residential areas. Even now when there is no fighting near the city.

●        The Russians began a slow exhumation of the dead. Corpses are exhumed, loaded on tractors, and taken to the morgue on the Metro. Buried in mass graves.

●        Drinking water remains the number one problem.

●        Problems with the humanitarian - people stand in the heat for a loaf of bread for 3-4 hours. Prices rose rapidly with the reappearance of money in Mariupol.

ZAPORIZHIA

Regional Military Administration: The Russians have seized the Zaporizhzhia iron ore plant.  According to him, the plant does not work, but it is the only enterprise in Ukraine that extracts iron ore from a depth of 1 kilometer. If pumping stations stop pumping water, this can lead to serious consequences.

●        During the day, the Russians shelled Hulaipole, the villages of Zaliznychne, Novodanylivka, and Stepnohirsk.

●        Russian troops bombarded Burlatske from the Grad rocket launchers; Mali Shcherbaky village suffered an air strike from the Su-25 stormtrooper.

Melitopol Mayor:  The Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced more than 10 km from Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol.  According to him, the AFU has also made significant progress recently and is already on the borders of Kherson, and recently these areas have been strengthened with new Western weapons.

DNIPRO

Regional Military Administration: Last night the Russians fired artillery at the Kryvyi Rih district. A house burned down in Velyka Kostroma. People were not hurt. In the Novomoskovsk district, rescuers continue to fight the fire caused by a rocket attack for the second day.

KHERSON

Minister of Education:  Only two schools have agreed to work with Russians in Kherson. There are a total of 60 schools in the occupied city.  Most schools will continue incorporating the educational process according to Ukrainian standards.

MYKOLAIV:

Social Media: Photos showing a ruined window production factory in Mykolaiv that was hit by a cruise missile the day before yesterday.

ODESA

Operational Command Pivden (South) On the night of the 19th the Odesa region was targeted by two Onyx missiles fired from a coastal missile complex in the annexed Crimea. They were shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces.

●        Russians struck Ochakiv in the Mykolaiv region. The hits were on the port infrastructure and the private sector. One person died, two were injured.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news