Ukraine – 6/19/2023 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
June 19, 2023
Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks
Over the past couple of days there has been chatter on Twitter, much of it by Ben Aris, Editor of BNE Intellinews and others, that in April 2022 former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and others, torpedoed a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and, as part of the peace deal Russia’s withdrawal from the area around Kyiv was a gesture of goodwill on Russia’s part. 2 articles are cited to support this allegation, from BBC, entitled “Ukraine war: Peace talks still on despite 'genocide', Zelensky Says,” and Ukrainska Pravda, entitled “From Zelenskyy’s Surrender to Putin’s Surrender: How the Negotiations with Russia are Going?”
There were negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, taking place in Istanbul and previously in Minsk. They ended shortly after the revelations of the atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in Bucha and Irpin.
The allegations that Prime Minister Boris Johnson are based on his quickly planned visit to Kyiv on April 9, 2022. Ukrainska Pravda describes Johnson’s message to Zelenskyy –
“ "Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign [an agreement] with you [Ukraine], but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over", is how one of Zelenskyy's close associates summed up the essence of Johnson's visit.”
Neither of the accounts mentions the fact that with or without Johnson’s pressure, had Zelenskyy agreed to a deal with Russia, especially one that involved loss of territory, he would almost certainly been forced out of office within 24 hours. Zelenskyy knew this if Johnson didn’t. In other words, even if the accounts about Johnson’s visit are true, in April 2022 there was never any chance of a negotiated peace on terms satisfactory to the People of Ukraine.
As for Ben Aris, his objective is likely to go back to business as usual with Russia, of which he is a recognized expert. He has often argued that the war was caused by the United States, when the U.S. failed to agree to Russia’s “treaty,” obligating the U.S. to keep Ukraine out of NATO, as well as other conditions that would’ve virtually ensured Ukraine’s de facto absorption by Russia. Needless to say, the U.S. would never have signed such a “treaty.”
News From the Battlefield
Progress of the counteroffensive - To describe Ukraine’s progress in their current counteroffensive Western media, especially in the U.S., appears to be recycling stories about last year’s Kherson counteroffensive, where Ukraine’s offensive started very slowly, and they were facing over 25,000 Russian troops entrenched in a land area far smaller than today’s offensive. There were concerns that the offensive would stall. We now know the outcome.
As mentioned later, “The Latest Denys” includes some interesting information. At 3:15 into his video he surmises that Ukraine may have found a solution to the dangers posed to Ukrainian forces by the Ka-52 helicopter. At 7:30 into his video there is a map showing all of the recent strikes on Russian ammunition and supply depots, and troop concentrations in Southern Ukraine and Crimea.
“Reporting From Ukraine” covers a widening Ukrainian incursion south of Orikhiv, just east of the Kakhovka Reservoir. He also mentions the loss of 2 Russian Ka-52 helicopters. Denys pointed out that because of sanctions, Russia cannot replace the losses of these helicopters.
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6/19/2023 Sitrep (my comment in bold face)
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon June 18 to 12:00 noon June 19, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Sunday June 19
6:39 am: UN asks russia for access to the areas affected by the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP.
● According to the UN, Moscow has so far rejected a request for access to territories under its temporary military control.
8:33 am: You cannot exclude the risks of russian attack - report of the Swedish defense committee to the parliament, transmits SVT.
8:33 am: India imports 10 times more Russian oil compared to last year, Reuters.
Sunday June 18
12:10 pm: Estonian intelligence: Ukraine lost less than 10% of Western equipment
● Grosberg said that this figure could increase, as the loss of equipment is an inevitable consequence of any offensive action.
● He also added that Western equipment better protects servicemen and even if it fails, the crews often survive and are not seriously injured.
● "It is obvious that the initiative is now in the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which means that they choose the time, place and means by which they will attack enemy units. In order not to take unnecessary risks, the Ukrainians approach their operation more methodically, more carefully and quietly, because both human and technical resources are essentially worth their weight in gold," said the head of the intelligence center of the Estonian Defense Forces, Colonel Margo Grosberg.
● In turn, the Russian Federation will try to destroy Ukraine's offensive capabilities as much as possible, using artillery, minefields, and airstrikes for this purpose, Grosberg added.
● According to the “Latest Denys,” (10:50 into his video), the Estonian report includes all losses since the start of the war, and not limited to the current counteroffensive.
1:10 pm: Ukraine itself has to determine acceptable conditions for a fair end to the war - Stoltenberg
● "We all want this war to end. But for peace to last, it must be just. Peace cannot mean freezing the conflict and accepting an agreement dictated by Russia. Only Ukraine itself can determine the terms that are acceptable," – noted Stoltenberg
2:58 pm: NATO will approve long-term assistance package to help Ukraine this summer at the summit in Vilnius, — General Sec NATO Jens Stoltenberg in Welt commentary.
● According to him, NATO will approve an aid package designed to bring Ukraine up to NATO standards within several years.
● "The future of Ukraine is in NATO, but now the priority for Ukraine is to establish itself as a sovereign and independent state - otherwise there is no point in discussing membership," he said.
2:23 pm: German edition of Bild refuted a fake that "Budanov in a coma", which was quoted by the Russians.
● The magazine Stern assured that it did not publish the news about the wounding of the head of the State Administration of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov. On June 17, the Russian mass media, propagandists and "militants" spread such information with reference to the publication.
● "This story is nothing more than an outright fake, another piece of fake news by Russian propagandists," the publication reported
2:46 pm: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant will hold telephone talks with Oleksiy Reznikov in the coming days.
● As noted, the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, requested the negotiations. At the same time, Galant noted that Israel will not provide Ukraine with lethal weapons.
2:55 pm: The Biden administration and the NATO countries did not hear me, - US ambassador McFaul about necessary condition for a Ukrainian victory by the end of the year.
● It is about his article entitled "How to Get a Breakthrough in Ukraine", published on January 30, 2023 in the journal Foreign Affairs. In it, McFaul insisted on the need to allocate to Ukraine exactly the amount of weapons and funding that would enable the defeat of the Russian occupiers and return to the borders of 1991 before the end of the year.
3:22 pm Sky News: Great Britain will provide 16 million pounds sterling (20,48 million dollars) to Ukraine for strengthening cyber protection, statement by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
● It is noted that the aid package will help Ukraine protect critical national infrastructure from Russian attacks.
4:21 pm: European Union is planning to speed up weapon supplies for Ukraine to take the next step, said European Commissioner Thierry Breton, informs Reuters.
● Breton also recalled the EU's commitment to deliver a million units of large-caliber weapons over the next 12 months.
4:40: President of Serbia considers it "pointless" to continue further dialogue with Kosovo
● Vucic said that Serbia was facing "the most difficult situation in the last 24 years", that Western countries are allowing Serbs to be insulted, and that Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti "wants war at any cost and has the support of some Western countries to create an illegal situation and persecute the inhabitants of the Serbian community".
6:30: If Israel ready to sell tanks, realizing that they will end up in Ukraine - this is a fundamental change in the policy of neutrality, - Israeli political scientist Pellivert
7:07 pm: Tokayev ordered to remove the names in honor of Soviet figures
● At the second meeting of the National Kurultay, the President of Kazakhstan stated the need to identify several outstanding Kazakh historical figures. According to him, they will become one of the key "markers" of Kazakh national identity inside the country and abroad.
8:34 pm: USA and China discussed the results of the negotiations of top diplomats:
● Blinken noted that the US will continue to promote its vision of a free and open world and supports a rules-based international order. The Secretary of State invited his counterpart to Washington, and they agreed to schedule such a visit on a date that would be convenient for both parties.
● China's foreign minister, Qin Gang, expressed regret to Blinken that US-China relations are "at the worst level" of all time, as it is not beneficial for both sides and the whole world.
● A top Chinese diplomat recalled Beijing's position on Taiwan and noted that it is "the most important issue in relations and the most obvious risk."
● Ukraine is not directly mentioned in both communiques.
NATIONAL
Monday June 19
7:10 am General Staff of the Armed Forces: Yesterday Russians inflicted 59 aviation attacks and carried out over 100 artillery attacks. There are dead and wounded civilians, in particular, children, critical infrastructure facilities were damaged, more than 20 residential buildings and a school were destroyed and damaged.
● They continue to concentrate their main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Marin directions - 24 combat clashes took place during the day.
● Over the past day, the Air Force of the Defense Forces has carried out 10 strikes on areas where Russian personnel are concentrated, and 1 anti-aircraft missile complex has been hit. Our defenders also destroyed a Ka-52 helicopter, 3 Iranian attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and 7 reconnaissance UAVs.
● During the past day, units of missile forces and artillery hit 2 control points, 4 anti-aircraft missile complexes, 2 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment, and 2 ammunition depots.
Sunday June 18
12:10 pm Ukrainian commander of the "Tavria" front: Russians on the Tavria front lose four companies per day.
● "Every day turns into hell for the Russians. Our soldiers skillfully destroy the enemy. Over the last day, the enemy's losses in killed and wounded amounted to more than four companies. 77 units of the enemy's military equipment were destroyed and damaged."
● In addition to the occupiers and weapons, according to Tarnavskyi, 12 Russian ammunition storage sites were destroyed
3:30 pm: Evacuation from flooding zones due to the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP is underway for free- Ministry of Reintegration
4:49 pm: Ukrainian officers fighter management started training courses within the framework of the international aviation coalition, but the pilots of the ZSU have not yet left to master the F-16 fighters.
● Yuriy Ignat, the spokesman of the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, announced this on the air of the telethon.
5:10 p.m.: No more than six subjects high school subjects and an external examination for each: educational ombudsman Gorbachev on the future of high school
6:22 pm: Office of the Ombudsman knows of 240 cases of abduction of children from refugees from Ukraine in EU countries.
● "For example, these can be stories when the mother was forced to stay at work in Ukraine, and the grandmother was sent to the evacuation with her child. The grandmother does not have any power of attorney to represent her interests and is not considered a relative of this child under European law. Thus, social services can involve the police and remove the child from the family," the Ombudsman's Office explains.
7:22 pm: Defense Force shot down another Ka-52 pm enemy helicopter:
● The cost of such a helicopter is about 16 million US dollars.
9:29 pm: Not a single Patriot missile system in Ukraine was destroyed – Zelenskyi.
11:06 pm: As a result undermining Kakhovska HPP 17 people died, 13 of them from drowning
● 17 people died because of the Russians blowing up the dam of the Kakhovskaya HPP in the Kherson region, 13 of them drowned, and 4 from gunshot wounds during the evacuation. This was reported by the Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko on June 18.
MORDOR – Russia
Monday June 19
8:15 am: City Valuyki V Belgorodskaya region russia under strong shelling, - rosSMI.
10:38 am British Intelligence: the Russians are transferring part of their troops to the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut directions after blowing up the Kakhovskaya HPP.
● Analysts report several thousand troops from the 49th army, including 34 separate motorized brigades, as well as airborne and marine units.
10:54 am Russian media: In Simferopol, a car carrying the deputy prime minister of the Zaporizhia region exploded.
● It is reported that a gas cylinder exploded in the car. The official, as well as his secretary and bodyguard, suffered severe burns.
11:34 am: A repair and machine plant is on fire in Moscow.
● The metallurgical machine-building enterprise is engaged in the development and production of machine-building products for nuclear energy, transport, and the oil and gas industry.
Sunday June 18
1:16 pm: the rashist army is suffering the largest losses since the time of its peak battles for Bakhmut, - intelligence Britain.
● "In the south, Russian forces often conduct relatively effective defensive operations. Both sides suffer significant losses, with Russian losses likely to be the highest since the peak of the Battle of Bakhmut in March," the report said.
2:05 pm Social Networks: An unfinished hospital for veterans is on fire in Bryansk.
● The roof was on fire, the fire has been extinguished, rosZMI writes.
2:20 pm: Abramovich wants distribute money from the sale of "Chelsea" between Ukrainians and Russians, — Daily Mail
● Oligarch Roman Abramovich is delaying the signing of the agreement on the allocation of $2.9 billion from the sale of Chelsea FC to help Ukrainians. He wants to give part of the money to Russians who "suffered from the conflict," the publication writes.
● It is noted that neither the British government nor the European Commission will agree to such a step, because sanctions are in effect against Russia.
● Now the 2.3 billion pounds that Abramovich got from the sale of "Chelsea" remain in a frozen bank account in Great Britain. The Daily Mail says the money transfer process could now take at least until September.
3:10 pm: From the beginning of the annexation of Crimea the Russian army illegally conscripted 40,000 Crimeans, — human rights defender Skrypnyk.
● The Russian Federation violates all international conventions by conscripting residents of the temporarily occupied Crimea into the army, Crimeans receive fines and prison terms for avoiding conscription, Olga Skrypnyk, head of the "Crimean Human Rights Group", said.
4:42 pm: Kuleba after Peskov's statement about the "demilitarization" of Ukraine said he is waiting for the next series of the melodrama.
5:39 pm: The hatred of the Russian leadership towards each other and the indifference of the soldiers will help Ukraine win, - General Hodges
5:56 pm: Bank of China limited the possibility of Russian customers to transfer yuan
● A representative of one of the Russian banks stated that the restriction affected not only yuan - according to him, Russians now cannot transfer funds in dollars, euros and Hong Kong dollars. The representative believes that the restrictions were introduced due to secondary sanctions against the Russian Federation, and that the decision was not made by China, but by the United States and the European Union.
6:50 a.m.: “Wagner's PMK suffered heavy losses —more than 15 trucks loaded with the dead are taken out every day", — interception of GUR
● The wife of a military man of the Russian Federation said that invitations to join the ranks of Wagner's PMK come to the mail, with promises of good equipment and training. The Russian soldier, in turn, shared that the PKK was suffering heavy losses, and there were no more criminals left in the prisons that could be recruited.
● "In the zones, in short, there are few people left who are suitable for "Wagner" and they are now starting to look everywhere. Great losses at "Wagner": a friend who serves there said that he makes more than 15 flights a day - the Kamaz is completely filled with corpses." , - the intercept says.
SUMY
Sunday June 18
2:17 pm Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, Russians carried out 12 artillery attacks.
● 59 explosions were recorded. Khotinsk, Krasnopilsk, Yunakivsk, Esmansk, Seredino-Budsk, Velikopysarivsk communities came under fire.
6:16 pm Social Networks: Sumy explosions are heard.
8:28 pm: Father and child died in Bilopilli on Sumy region as a result of Russian artillery shelling
KHARKIV
Monday June 19
10:20 am Kharkiv RMA: Last day, the Russians fired artillery and mortars at populated areas of Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Chuguyiv, Bogoduhiv and Izyum districts.
● As a result of the mortar shelling of the village. A 35-year-old civilian man was wounded in Liptsi. In the village Tokarivka, a 52-year-old local resident stepped on a "Petal" mine, hospitalized with moderate injuries.
Sunday June 18
8:46 pm Kharkiv regional prosecutor's office: Russians directed mortar fire at the village of July Kharkiv region.
● "A 35-year-old local resident was injured. Residential buildings and cars were damaged," the message reads.
9:21 pm Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office: Russians fired from a mortar at a residential buildings in the Kharkiv region: there is a wounded person
DONETSK
Monday June 19
11:49 am Donetsk RMA: In the middle of the night, the Russians shelled Rai-Olexandrivka — a house was destroyed.
● The communities of Vugledar, Kurakhove, Gostre, Toretsk, New York, Nelipivka, Chasovoyarsk and Lymansk were also under fire.
● In just one day, the number of Russian victims in Donetsk region increased by 1 dead person.
Sunday June 18
2:35 pm: In the Vugledar direction, units of the Defense Forces successfully advanced several kilometers
4:00 pm Donetsk RMA: ready to fully the transition of parishes in the region from the Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.
ZAPORIZHIA
Monday June 19
8:51 am: Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated P'yatikhatki in Zaporozhye region, — Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Malyar.
● In total, 8 settlements were liberated in the two weeks of the offensive in the Berdyansk and Melitopol directions.
● In general, units in the Tavria direction advanced to the depth of the Russian army up to 7 km.
Sunday June 18
7:20 pm: Russian troops in the occupied village of Pokrovske, Zaporizhzhia region conduct mining of private plots of land of local residents who left for the territory controlled by Ukraine - reports the General Staff
DNIPRO
Monday June 19
11:28 am: The SBU detained a Russian agent who wanted to blow up a railway in the Dnipro region in order to disrupt the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces
● He turned out to be an employee of the local Ukrzaliznytsia station. He collected information about railway routes of transportation and places of unloading of foreign military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is involved in counteroffensive operations of Ukrainian troops.
● In addition, the enemy agent recorded the coordinates of railway stations and bridges, through which the heavy weapons and ammunition of the Defense Forces are redeployed.
KHERSON
Monday June 19
8:09 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
9:36 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson
10:05 am: Kherson was subjected to heavy shelling at night, which caused several fires, the Ministry of Internal Affairs reported
● Several fires broke out at once: a gas tank caught fire at one of the city's gas stations and on the territory of one of the enterprises. Warehouses, exhibition halls and utility buildings were on fire.
Sunday June 18
12:35 pm Social Networks: Kherson explosions are heard.
4:24 pm Kherson RMA: Microdistrict of Kherson Island will be connected to the power grid next week, gas connection will begin on June 26. According to him, the main obstacle is wet transformers and wet soils.
8:57 pm Social Networks: Kherson explosions are heard.
MYKOLAIV
Sunday June 18
23:54 pm: In southern Ukraine air defense destroyed four Russian drones
● It is noted that two Lancet attack UAVs and one ZALA UAV were destroyed in the Kherson region, and one operational-tactical UAV was destroyed in the Mykolaiv region.
ODESA
Monday June 19
7:01 am: At night, there were air defense forces over the Odesa regionshot down four out of four enemy missiles, - Serhii Bratchuk, head of the public council at Odesa OVA.
● The Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces first wrote about a missile from the Black Sea in the direction of the city, and later also confirmed the work of the air defense forces.
● That night, air defense forces destroyed all 8 Russian air targets.
● In particular, 4 "Caliber" and 4 "Shakhed".
Sunday June 18
1:19 pm: From now on entertainment establishment in Odesa will work until 22:00.
● In the period from 10:00 p.m. to 9:00 a.m., the operation of night clubs and other entertainment facilities was prohibited on the territory of Odesa. In addition, the use of lighting devices that worsen the unmasking features of the territory, sound equipment, acoustic systems and other musical devices was also prohibited.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
https://t.me/uawarinfographics