Bob Homans June 19

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Ukraine – 6/19 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
June 19, 2022

The Latest Denis

The most significant item in Denis’ latest report is the apparent arrival at the front of the M-777 howitzers coming from the United States, Great Britain and Australia, along with the Caesar howitzers from France.   Denis reports that Ukraine destroyed a large Russian ammunition dump located near Izyum.   Today there was a report of a 2nd ammunition dump that was destroyed, located east of Sievierodonetsk.   I’m assuming that the M-777s had something to do with the destruction of both ammunition dumps, because the 152 mm howitzers Ukraine has been using don’t have the range to hit either of those targets.  The loss of these stocks of ammunition should slow Russia’s advance in Donetsk even further.

The ”Line of Contact”  

The Line of Contact is the original barrier that, starting in 2014 Ukraine built around the 2 people’s republics.   By January 2015, it consisted of 3 rings around occupied Donbas.  Since the start of the war “Line of Contact” has not been well covered by the Western media but, since 2014 this has been where most of the fighting took place.  Since the start of the war, Russia has been unable to break through Ukraine’s defenses along the Line of Contact, largely preventing them from taking the portion of Donetsk Oblast controlled by Ukraine.   Russia’s more successful advance in Luhansk Oblast, where Sievierodonetsk is the temporary capital, was launched largely from Russia proper, although Russia has employed separatist soldiers.

Today, according to the “Wall St. Journal,” Ukraine launched an artillery barrage against Donetsk City along the Line of Contact.  The Line of Contact is only a short distance from the Donetsk City Center.   Now that the M-777s are arriving, it could be that Ukraine is moving a few of its 152mm howitzers to the Line of Contact opposite Donetsk, where longer range guns aren’t needed.

Conversation with my Friend, the Female Sniper

Last Friday, I spoke with my friend for about 30 minutes.   She would like to thank you all for your contributions and support to her and members of her all-female sniper team.   You can continue to contribute via Paypal.   Look for Vivica Williams (williams.vivica@gmail.com).

We talked about how the tactics employed during Euromaidan were used during the current conflict.   She was very active during Euromaidan, so she has a unique perspective.   She described the tactics employed during Euromaidan were largely ad hoc where people came and, without any direction, did what had to be done. 

Based on my own research I agree with her description.  I interviewed a woman, an Ob-Gyn in her normal life, who was instrumental in setting up 1st Aid stations in and around Independence Square, and makeshift hospitals in the basements of churches, another woman who supervised food distribution for the protestors, two young women who, by day, worked in the marketing department at one of Kyiv’s best hotels, and by night made sandwiches in an institutional kitchen in the basement of Kyiv City Hall, a guy who used his car to transport wounded protestors from Independence Square to the makeshift hospitals, and many other examples.  

She said that the same tactics were used in the initial stages of the war, around Kyiv.   The tactics caused confusion in the Russian Army.   Groups of Ukrainians, consisting of regular Army soldiers, territorial defense, and volunteer groups such as the volunteer group my friend belongs to, were coming at Russians from multiple directions, primarily employing anti-armor weapons including Javelin missiles and British NLAWS, and in my friend’s case sniper rifles to take out infantry escaping burning armor, complemented by Bayraktar drones.   As with Euromaidan, there was little or no central direction for these attacks. 

On their own, groups of Ukrainians made decisions based on what they saw as necessary.    Although Russia had artillery, that they used to cause the destruction we’ve seen in cities like Bucha, Irpin and elsewhere, Russian artillery never got within range of Kyiv.   Collectively, using the tactics first employed during Euromaidan, Ukrainians routed the 2nd largest Army in the World.

My friend said that Donbas is a different type of war from what took place around Kyiv, a conflict largely fought using artillery, with Russia having the advantage in range and their ability to fire from territory they control, either from deep inside temporarily occupied Ukraine or even from Russia proper.   The presence of the M-777s, even though they may be few in number, could be changing the calculus.  However, what seems to be common in both theaters of operation is the heavy losses that are being taken by Russian infantry, through both casualties and refusals to fight.  This could explain why the Russian advance has been so slow.   Infantry is a necessary condition to take and hold territory.

The place where the tactics used around Kyiv are likely being employed is in Southern Ukraine, by the partisan groups operating there.   My friend says that there are very few specific reports of partisan activity in Southern Ukraine, but she said that she’s sure partisan attacks are going on, including assassinations of Quislings (Ukrainian traitors helping Russia), Russian soldiers eating pies spiked with poison as was the case near Kharkiv, and sabotage against rail lines and other infrastructure. 

My friend says she thinks that partisans are causing great psychological damage among Russian soldiers and their collaborators.   Apparently, the Russian-installed Mayor of Melitopol has asked her superiors for permission to rule the City from the relative safety of Crimea.   She believes her life is in danger, and with good reason.   My friend said that signs are being posted on trees in temporarily occupied Kherson, saying “Rostov-on-Don is 600km. from Kherson, but Ukrainian forces are only 10km. away.”

In addition to murder and sabotage, partisans may be adversely affecting Russia’s ability to control temporarily occupied territories, preventing them from conducting referendums on joining temporarily occupied territories either to the existing peoples’ republics,or to Russia itself.   As the Ukrainian Army advances there will likely be more coordination with the partisans, including joint operations.

I expect my collaborator on these emails to be back tomorrow from his dacha.