Bob Homans June 17
20220617
Ukraine – 6/17 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
June 17, 2022
Latest Denis, Etc.
Today’s report is not as granular as most of Denis’ previous reports. It also includes some reporting from the visits by Macron, Scholz, Draghi and Romanian Persident Klaus Iohannis. Denis mentioned that the first agenda item for the visit was a trip to Irpin after which, in their meeting with President Zelenskyy, there wasn’t much talk about not wanting to “humiliate” Putin.
I understand there were several jokes emanating from yesterday’s visits, especially at the expense of Pres. Macron. One had Pres. Macron looking around Kyiv for a SIMM card that he could use to call Putin. Another was that Macron insisted that the windows of the train carriage be closed, avoid receiving a Ukrainian draft notice passed through the train window.
Today, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson paid a visit to Kyiv. The timing of Johnson’s visit, coming after the visits of those who have suggested in the past that Putin not be humiliated. President Zelenskyy received P.M. Johnson and Mariansky Palace, located in a park of the same name. It is used for ceremonial purposes. When I lived just down the hill from Mariansky Palace, I used to enjoy jogging in the park.
Today, it was announced that Ukraine and Moldova had been accepted as candidates for EU Membership. Thus begins a lengthy process before Ukraine can achieve full EU Membership. North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia are currently candidate countries. They will likely be very concerned about Ukraine trying to “jump the line.” Lavrov’s recent aborted visit to Belgrade, where Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro closed their air space to Lavrov’s plane, may well have been related to Serbia’s candidate status, and Russia trying to implore Serbia to oppose a “fast track” membership for Ukraine.
Sievierodonetsk
This is a very interesting article (in English) from Ukrainska Pravda, entitled “Battle for Sievierodonetsk – How Ukraine is Defending the City and Whether it Will be Able to Hold it.” There is also a YouTube video taken by the Ukrainska Pravda reporter, about the situation in Lysychansk, across the Svero Donetsk River from Sievierodonetsk. It shows the wreckage and people trying to hold onto a semblance of normalcy.
Visa Regime for Russia
Today, Ukraine announced that starting on July 1st that Russians visiting Ukraine will require a visa. This is a very significant development. For the most part, and with the exception of the Baltic States, citizens of the countries that made up the Soviet Union could visit other countries without a visa. There are tens of thousands of Ukrainians who have relatives in Russia, and vice versa, including the family of my brother-in-law’s late wife.
6/17 Sitrep (my comment in bold face)
Yesterday two events dominated Ukrainian news. In the immediate term, the Rammstein 3 meeting of 50 defense ministers in Brussels to coordinate military assistance to Ukraine produced fewer headlines but had more significance. The visit of the Presidents of France and Romania, the Prime Minister of Italy and the German Chancellor produced more headlines but had less significance.
The first event sets the stage for more Russian defeats while the second reopens Ukraine’s can of worms. The visiting Presidents’ will put Ukraine on the track to EU membership, which it can obtain by reforming its weak and corrupt institutional framework.
The headlines masked the most important event that occurred yesterday. The Ukrainian government released a thirty-two-page presentation deck that lays out a plan to slash the civil service by two thirds, concurrently with transferring a significant number of government functions to digital services and the private sector.
In principle there is nothing wrong or right about the administrative reform proposal. However, the proposal lacks merit because there is no opportunity for significant public scrutiny.
In the current state of war Ukraine’s political parties and civil society have agreed formally and informally from engaging in politics. Given that the rules of political and public engagement in governance issues are suspended, it is a gross violation to ram down society’s throat a total institutional transformation without discussion.
This government, which failed to adequately prepare defenses against a Russian invasion was saved from complete failure by military reforms begun after 2014 and rapid civil society mobilization in response to the invasion, once again chooses to trample civic rights. The ultimate cynicism of the proposed package is that while numbers are slashed, politicians obtain the right to ignore competitive hiring and have greater scope to appoint civil servants.
Zelenskyi’s predilection to authoritarian cronyism and corruption which dominated Ukrainian politics prior to the start of the war has raised its ugly head with malevolent vengeance.
INTERNATIONAL
Statements made by the visiting Presidents. Prime Minister and Chancellor:
President Macron
● Irpin: “We have the first traces of war crimes. This is the mark of barbarism.”
● We are for a holistic victory (of Ukraine - ed.) with the restoration of territorial integrity in all the territories conquered by the Russians, including Crimea
● “France supports granting Ukraine the status of a candidate for EU membership.”
● “France, Germany, Italy and Romania are in favor of "immediate" candidate status for Ukraine.”
● France will supply Ukraine with 6 additional 155-millimeter Caesar artillery units
● Europe will not demand territorial concessions from Ukraine to resolve the conflict
● Due to fears of being drawn into a war with Russia, Western countries agreed not to provide Ukraine with certain types of weapons.
Chancellor Scholz
● Irpin: "This says a lot about Russia's aggressive war, which is simply aimed at destruction. We should all keep this in mind when making decisions,”
● Thanked Volodymyr Zelensky for accepting his invitation to attend the G7 summit. We Europeans are firmly on your side.
Romanian President Klaus Johannes
● Irpin: “Russian criminals must be held accountable. I urge again to bring all Russian criminals to justice before international criminal justice, which Romania fully supports.”
Prime Minister Draghi
● “Peace with Russia should be achieved on Ukraine's terms.”
The leaders of the EU countries during their visit to Kyiv stated that the blockade of Ukrainian ports is a direct consequence of Russian aggression and called on the Russian Federation to agree to the export of Ukrainian grain.
Deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Medvedev comments on the visit of Macron, Scholz and Draghi to Ukraine, calling them "European connoisseurs of frogs, liver and pasta."
The Italian company Enel, engaged in the production and distribution of electricity and gas, announced the sale of its entire 56.43% stake in the Russian business of Enel Russia to LUKOIL and the Gazprombank fund.
Oil will not be cheaper than $100 per barrel until 2025, Wood Mackenzie analysts predicted.
CNN: State Department Speaker said on Thursday that the United States has information about three American volunteers who disappeared during the fighting in Ukraine, reports.
Polish Prime Minister called on NATO countries to provide Ukraine with heavier weapons. “I ask and urge you to do much more. Let us supply weapons and artillery to Ukraine. They need this to defend their homeland”.
Reuters: The US doubles funding for VPN services to bypass website blocks in Russia. Funding is provided to three VPN services: - NthLink; - Psiphon; - Lantern."
Website of the US Senate: The US planned to allocate a part of defense spending to Ukraine in 2023 - $45 billion will go to Ukraine. Total spending next year will be $847 billion. This amount will include a 4.6% pay raise for the military and civilians, the purchase of new aviation, naval vessels and ground equipment, ammunition, and support to Ukraine.
● Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative” propose to allocate Kyiv $800 million. The law provides $2.7 billion for Stinger man-portable air defense systems and Javelin anti-tank missile systems production for Ukraine.
Radio Liberty: The European Commission has reached a preliminary agreement: candidate status for Ukraine and Moldova now, followed by conditions to be complied with. Conditions will also be set for the transition to the next step.
British Intelligence: 15,000 Russian millionaires (in US dollars) are likely already attempting to leave the Russian Federation. Intelligence reports that should this exodus continue, it will likely exacerbate the war’s long-term damage to Russia’s economy.
TF-1: President of France Emmanuel Macron said that he was working on the idea of exporting grain from Ukraine through Romania. "We are working on a new route through Romania. Odesa is located a few tens of kilometres from Romania.”
It may take ten years to restore Russia’s economy to the level of 2021, says the head of Sberbank, Herman Gref.
State Department: China prefers to support Russia and repeats its propaganda. The US State Department believes China’s position towards the Russian-Ukrainian war is not neutral. De facto, Beijing has chosen Russia’s side."
Portuguese Defense Minister: Portugal is ready to train Ukrainian soldiers but sending additional military support “is not on the table”. She clarified that they are talking about training the Ukrainian military in Portugal, for example, maneuvering on Leopard tanks.
A Su-25 plane crashed in the Belgorod region during a scheduled training flight. The pilot ejected, the press service of the Western Military District of the Russian Federation reports. The accident could have been caused by a technical failure.
Foreign Minister: The Danish government is ready to support granting Ukraine EU candidate status if the European Commission gives a positive recommendation.
Russian mass media: The Kremlin reacted to Ukraine's intentions to return the annexed Crimea. The speaker of the president of the Russian Federation Dmytro Peskov declared that safety of the Crimea is allegedly "preventively guaranteed" by the Russian military.
● Putin will not announce the mobilization in his speech at the SPIEF on June 17.
Russian Foreign Minister said that Russia was satisfied with the negotiating position set out by Ukraine at the end of March "as a basis for work."
● We did not invade Ukraine - we declared a special military operation because we had absolutely no other way of explaining to the West that dragging Ukraine into NATO was a criminal act.
● Russia is not squeaky clean. Russia is what it is. And we are not ashamed of showing who we are.
Sky News: British Defense Secretary admits that sometimes Russian artillery advantage in Ukraine is 20 to 1, but Western arms shipments will soon be able to turn the tide.
Reuters: Coca-Cola Distributor HBC announced the cessation of production and sale of drinks of its brands in Russia.
CNN: National Security Council: The Biden administration will continue to provide substantial military assistance to Ukraine "as soon as we can send it" for as long as necessary, until Russia ceases hostilities.
● They're getting as much as we can send, and as quickly as possible.
London Stock Exchange ICE: Due to the sharp reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe, gas prices in the EU have already soared above $1,500 per thousand cubic meters.
NBC: US President Joe Biden has asked his subordinates not to go too far in rhetoric about supporting Ukraine so as not to raise unrealistic expectations and provoke Russia. As one of President Biden’s predecessors was famous for saying, “Here you go again.”
Special services of the Netherlands reported the arrest of a Russian spy who was trying to become a trainee in a court investigating war crimes in Ukraine. According to Western intelligence, GRU agent Sergei Cherkasov pretended to be a Brazilian citizen, Viktor Mueller, and applied for an internship in The Hague. The man was detained at the airport in the Netherlands and deported back to Brazil. He is currently under arrest and awaiting trial.
Russian Ministry of Defense: Accused Ukraine of participating in a US bioweapons project. We are talking about the creation of new viruses that could be carried by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes.
NATO Secretary General: The countries of the Asia-Pacific region will take part in the NATO summit in Madrid for the first time.
● New aid package to Ukraine provides for switching to NATO weapons to ensure greater compatibility between the Ukrainian army and the Alliance
● NATO allies are set to prepare a new defence model for the eastern flank of the bloc.
● The new force model on the eastern flank will consist of mainly three pillars. One is increased forward presence with more combat operations. "Just over the last months, we have doubled the number of battlegroups in the East from four to eight,"
● The second element is more forward pre-positioned equipment to save time. The third element is then pre-assigned troops. Forces that will train in that specific territory where they have a responsibility.
● Some of the forces will be deployed forward, while others will be deployed in their home country but ready to move quickly if needed - Stoltenberg explains.
● The new defense model of NATO’s eastern flank will mean a significant strengthening of our deterrence and defense posture across the whole Alliance.
The Washington Post: The United States has begun investigating the case of American chips in Russian military equipment involved in hostilities in Ukraine. As Conflict Armament Research (CAR) claims in its report, the researchers found components in Russian equipment produced by 70 different companies based in the US and Europe.
Germany's Minister of Economy called on citizens to save energy consumption as Russia's Gazprom began cutting gas supplies.
CNN: The US Federal Prosecutor's Office intends to seize $ 5.3 million from a US bank account owned by Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev.
The Guardian: Neither the International Court of Justice, nor the International Criminal Tribunal, nor the European Court of Human Rights can force Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine, citing a report by the British think tank Ceasefire. The authors of the report suggested that a special investigative body could be set up by the UN General Assembly, as was the case with Syria. But given Russia's status as a member of the UN Security Council and a veto, this idea seems unrealistic.
Delfi: The Lithuanian Seimas has recognized the deportation of Ukrainians to Russia as a deportation of the Ukrainian people. The Lithuanian Seimas also called on the international community to do the same and seek responsibility for these crimes.
Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Russia lost between 20% and 30% of its armored forces during the war in Ukraine. "It's important. These are huge numbers. The Ukrainians are fighting very effectively tactically with both fire and maneuver," - Milley said.
All Russian clubs have been suspended from participating in the Euroleague basketball championship in the new season, according to the tournament's website. In the new season, they will be replaced by the Spanish "Valencia" and the Serbian "Partizan".
Berliner Zeitung: Siemens has confirmed that it cannot deliver a gas turbine for Nord Stream from Canada after repairs due to sanctions against the Russian Federation. "Against this background, we have briefed the governments of Canada and Germany and are working on a viable solution," -the company said.
Britain has included Russian Patriarch Kirill and Russia's children's ombudsman Lviv-Belov on its sanctions list.
Twitter blocked the director of 'Roskosmos', for inciting hatred towards Ukraine. The social network demanded to delete a tweet - Rogozin will not be unblocked until he does this. Rogozin himself says that he is not going to follow the rules of the social network.
Slovakia's Defense Minister: Slovakia has handed over four Mi-17 helicopters and one Mi-2 helicopter, as well as ammunition for the Grad multiple launch rocket system to Ukraine.
State Security Service: At the initiative of the SBU (Ukrainian Intelligence - ed.), the assets of Russian companies worth UAH 40 million (about $1.35 million) were arrested in the Kharkiv region. We are talking about the property of 4 local enterprises, the founders and ultimate beneficiaries of which are citizens and legal entities of the Russian Federation.
Lithuanian Defense Minister: The M113 armored personnel carriers transferred by Lithuania are already in Ukraine and have reached the battlefield.
US Secretary of State: Total US military aid since the beginning of the Russian invasion has reached $5.6 billion. "We have implemented strong sanctions against Russia, strengthened the deterrence and defense of NATO on the eastern flank, and provided a historic level of military and other assistance to Ukraine as it bravely defended its territory and its freedom. Our resolve is unwavering. We are one with Ukraine".
NATIONAL
Ministry of Education and Science: The following will not be taught in Ukrainian schools: Pushkin, Tolstoy, Yesenin and Dostoevsky. And Nikolai Gogol was recommended to be transferred to the section of Ukrainian literature. In total, more than 40 works by Russian and Soviet authors (in particular, Tsvetaeva, Mandelstam, Pasternak and Mayakovsky) will be banned.
The Russians do not give the body of the dead Azov fighter, who saved his brother in battle, to his relatives. Major Vitaliy Zinchenko was killed in action on May 5. He noticed a Russian tank and covered his twin. At that moment, he received a fatal shrapnel wound.
Operational report of the General Staff of AFU
● In the Sloviansk direction, the occupiers are concentrating their main efforts on continuing the offensive on Slovyansk. They are performing reconnaissance in the area of Krasnopillia; the battle continues. Russia had tried to take complete control of the village of Bohorodychne, but Ukrainian soldiers successfully repulsed the assault.
● In the Severodonetsk direction, the Russians continue to fire from the barrel and rocket artillery units on the Ukrainian troops. They launched an airstrike on the Ustynivka village. Fighting continues for complete control over the Severodonetsk city.
● Russia continues to block civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. It has two carriers of sea-based cruise missiles of the "Caliber" type.
OSCE: Russians have set up 20 filtration camps and prisons in the occupied territories
Institute for the Study of War:
● Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northwest of Sloviansk, while Ukrainian forces reportedly resumed preparations for counter offensives west of Izium
● Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in clashes north and northeast of Kharkiv
● Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in the northwestern Kherson region, likely in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the region.
Social Media: Russian officer talks about casualties of the LNR battalion in the fight for Severodonetsk. «They have an obligation. There are no men left in the LNR - all are in the war. If you don’t go, you will face felony charges. Now I have talked with them; of the 100 soldiers, 30 remained - the rest have already died under the bombing here»."
British Chief of Defense: Russia has already "strategically lost" the war with Ukraine. Russia has suffered heavy losses and strengthened NATO, which Finland and Sweden are looking to join.
Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense: Ukrainian agents obtained detailed technical documentation on the construction of the "Crimean Bridge".
'Enerhoatom' - Russians are telling structural subdivision supervisors of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant that Russia wants to put the nuclear power plant under the control of 'Rosatom' from September 1.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Federation does not stop shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops along the line of confrontation with the concentration of the main efforts in the Severodonetsk and Bakhmut directions.
Belarusian Gayun: The armed forces of Belarus once again extended their military exercises - at least until June 25.
Kyiv city prosecutor's office: The Ukrainian court arrested the assets of the Belarusian oilfield service company Service-Oil for UAH 4 billion. As part of the investigation, law enforcement officers are investigating the activities of this enterprise in terms of possible assistance to the Russian Federation in the preparation and conduct of an aggressive war against Ukraine.
President's Office: European leaders were given a full package of sanctions proposals against the Russian Federation, which were prepared by the McFaul-Yermak international group. We must increase pressure on the aggressor, work on the seventh package of sanctions with the gas embargo," - Yermak stressed.
Main Operations Department of the AFU: The Russian Federation has deployed 333,000 soldiers against Ukraine.
Deputy Minister of Defense: The Russian Army is trying to encircle a group of AFU troops in the Luhansk region and will continue to advance to reach the administrative borders of the region.
● The Russian military is actively transporting their relatives to the temporarily occupied Kherson and arbitrarily settling in the apartments of local residents that they like.
Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine: Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will not receive pensions and social benefits in June. Citizens who ended up in the temporarily occupied territories or live in regions where fighting continues will remain without payments. At the same time, their money will be kept in personal accounts.
CNN: Ukrainian Defense Minister said that tens of thousands of Ukrainians have died since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation. He said he would not give exact numbers, but "hopes" that the death toll is less than 100,000.
● Russia hoped to capture Kyiv within 12 hours of the invasion. According to him, this is evidenced by a document found in the liquidated Russian officer. The Russians also naively believed that the Ukrainian authorities would leave the capital within 72 hours of the start of the war.
The Khmelnytskyi Regional Council has introduced a moratorium on the public use of the Russian-speaking cultural product in the region.
Language ombudsman: As of July 16, all Internet resources (websites, pages on social networks, Telegram channels) must switch to the state language, and goods with computer programs must be equipped with a Ukrainian interface.
CNN: Minister of Defense: New weapons will allow Ukraine to return occupied territories, including Crimea. We are going to liberate all our territories, everything, including Crimea. Crimea is a strategic goal for Ukraine, because it is Ukrainian territory, but we will move step by step. The Minister added that there are 3 stages of stabilizing the situation in Ukraine:
● prevent further losses against the Russian troops;
● push the Russian troops back into positions prior to the 24 February invasion;
● Discussions with Ukraine's partners on "how to liberate territories, including Crimea.
SUMY
Regional Military Administration: In the morning, Russian mortar shelling hit the Khotin territorial community (the Sumy region). There are no casualties and destruction. Russia has taken responsibility for the attack on civilians.
State Border Guard Service: Yesterday afternoon, Ukrainian border guards recorded MLRS fire from the Kursk region of the Russian Federation of the village Gorodishche in the Sumy region; an agricultural facility was damaged because of the shelling. Information about casualties and destruction is being investigated.
Operational command Pivnich (North): At about 04:40 (GMT+3), Russian aircraft fired two missiles at the outskirts of Mezenivka. And at about 05:00 (GMT+3) mortar shelling of the village began. Infrastructure damaged, no casualties.
KHARKIV
Kharkiv Mayor Igor Terekhov is now in Madrid. He recorded an appeal from there and stated that the rumors about his decision to stay there were fake. Terekhov said he went to the capital of Spain to meet with the architects who will rebuild the city. And he'll be back home by the end of next week. In addition, Terekhov called false announcements in the entrances with calls to leave open the front doors in apartments "for the needs of the defense"
LUHANSK
Social Media: Reports of strong explosions in the temporarily occupied Khrustalnyi (Krasnyi Luch) in the Luhansk region. Local residents report that the 'Standard' plant, where the Russian ammunition depot was located, is on fire. We are waiting for official information.
Main Operations Department of the AFU: The Russian troops destroyed 4 bridges across the Seversky Donets near Severodonetsk
Regional Military Administration: Almost 11,300 houses were destroyed by the Russian army in the Luhansk region, 3,188 of them are high-rise buildings. Popasnaya and Rubezhnoye have been practically destroyed. The Russians are also destroying Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Gorskoye, Zolote and other settlements.
● Russian troops launched an airstrike on Lysychansk. At least three people were killed and seven were injured.
● Another air attack destroyed the preventorium, where people could have been. Shelling on the street killed a resident. In Severodonetsk, mother and son were killed.
● Russian troops are pushed back from Zolote.
State Emergency Service: In Lysychansk, hundreds of people are stuck in basements, fleeing Russian shelling. Many are sitting without food and water. There are small children, women, old people in the basements.
Special Operations Forces: Mined and destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge in the Luhansk region.
Radio Liberty: Commander of the 'Svoboda' battalion - Severodonetsk is semi-encircled, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not think about the retreat. Our order is to hold positions and squeeze the enemy out of the city if possible, which we are trying to do qualitatively with varying success. Nobody is thinking about retreat, exit. On the contrary, we are thinking about how to accomplish the task of de-occupying the city.
DONETSK
Regional Military Administration: The consequences of yesterday's missile attack on Pokrovsk and the village of Hryshyne were: 2 people were injured, at least 14 private residential buildings, a weather station, a farm were destroyed and damaged - about three dozen animals died.
ZAPORIZHIA
A member of the occupation "administration" of the Zaporozhzhia region, said that children born in the region after February 24, "will automatically receive Russian citizenship," as in the temporarily occupied Kherson region.
KHERSON
Operational command Pivden (South): In the Mykolaiv-Kherson direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed an ammunition depot of the Russian military. Also liquidated another 14 Russian soldiers and 7 units of their equipment.
● Last night, a Russian tugboat “Vasily Bekh” was hit by a Harpoon missiles near Zmiinnyi Island. At the time, it was transporting ammunition, weapons and personnel to the island.
● 70% of the «Vasily Bekh» crew was killed by the Ukrainian «Harpoon». The fate of the rest is unknown
Social Media: A kilometer line of grain trucks with stolen Ukrainian grain towards Crimea. The footage was taken a few kilometers from the village Chongar, Kherson region.
Security Service of Ukraine: Russians in the Kherson region are suffering from the Armed Forces of Ukraine: they do not get out of the trenches, turn gray with fear and see a "spotter" in every grandmother.
Prosecutor General: As a result of yesterday's explosion in the village of Chornobaivka, the Kherson region, two local residents died, five more people were injured of varying severity.
MYKOLAIV
Regional Military Administration: One dead and six wounded due to the Russian missile attacks on Mykolaiv this morning.
State Emergency Service: 19 people were injured due to yesterday morning’s shelling of Mykolaiv - 16 of them were hospitalized, and one man died.
Mayor: Russian troops fired cluster shells at a residential quarter of Mykolaiv last night, 5 private houses and 1 three-story residential building were damaged. There were no casualties.
ODESA
Deputy mayor of Odesa: The Russian leadership still plans for annexation of the Ukrainian south: from Mykolaiv to Transnistria.
KYIV
The first 17 residents have already settled in the "Iron Town" in Irpin. It was equipped by Ukrzaliznytsia with the support of partners: the city authorities and World Central Kitchen. This is temporary housing for those who have lost their homes.
Mayor: Kyiv has begun rebuilding 11 high rises that suffered the most damage as a result of shelling by Russian troops
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis