Ukraine – 6/10 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
June 10, 2022
The Legacy of Atrocities
Several readers have expressed surprise at the high level of atrocities committed by Russian troops against Ukrainian civilians, including readers with substantial military and intelligence experience. Last night I read a review of Sir Antony Beevor’s new book, entitled “Russia: Revolution & Civil War, 1917 – 1921.” The review provided examples the atrocities committed by both sides that are included in the book. This account, plus previous accounts of events like the 1932/33 Ukrainian Famine, suggests that perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised by the recent events in Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol, and territories elsewhere in Ukraine that find themselves under temporary Russian occupation.
Economist Webinar
I listened to the Economist Webinar that was completed a short time ago. The editors and writers of “the Economist” made the following points regarding the military situation:
· Donbas - Even if Russia manages to take Sievorodonetsk and Lysychansk, it is doubtful that Russia can achieve a breakthrough in Donbas, allowing Russia to take both Sloviansk and Krematorsk. Taking either Sloviansk or Krematorsk would require the same level of street battles that are currently being wage in Sievorodonetsk.
· Weapons Deliveries - the Economist’s military expert said that he expects that the multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) from the U.S. will be delivered in the next 2 weeks. The MLRS systems will give Ukraine a range advantage. He said that there is a concern in the West about Ukraine’s ability to maintain the weapons that Ukraine has already received, and that some of the units have had to be sent back to Poland for repairs. He suggested that perhaps one of the reasons for slow deliveries of weapons was “not to swamp Ukraine,” with weapons that require training to use especially considering that the weapons are coming from multiple countries, reducing the inter-operability.
· French Howitzers – Probably the best 155mm howitzer coming from the West is the French “Caesar.” However, so far France has committed to deliver only 6 of these units.
· Howitzer Shells – According to a separate report, the U.S. has not delivered the “smart shells” that can be used with the M777, nor was the M777 delivered with the sophisticated range finders. There is an issue of whether these items are subject to additional U.S. export controls.
· Partisans – They said that partisan activity, especially around Melitopol and Kherson are having an immediate effect, which will increase over time. Partisan activities appear to be having a demoralizing effect on Russian occupiers and their collaborators.
The webinar ended with Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor of the Economist, asking the other 3 experts if they expected to be having a webinar a year from now on military situation in Ukraine. 2 said “No.” The 3rd, the Economist’s military expert, said Yes. He said that the expects fighting to subside later this summer, because both sides are becoming exhausted and need to refurbish, but after that the fighting will increase to a level similar to what we observe today.
For what it's worth, my answer is “No,” for the following reasons:
· Arrival of weapons from the West improving Ukraine’s capabilities, whereas Russia is having to bring back old equipment into service, such as the T-62 tank.
· With new weapons and better ability to train new enlistees, Ukraine’s strength will improve over time, whereas Russia’s will stay the same or, more likely, weaken. Ukraine has a 30-day waiting list of people wanting the enter military service. Ukraine’s problem is that they cannot train the numbers wanting to enter, whereas Russia’s problem is finding and training new conscripts to replace their heavy personnel losses.
· Ukraine’s superior command and control, especially at the level of small units, whereas Russia’s is non-existent, one reason why Russia is losing so many generals and other senior officers – they’re forces to go to the front.
· Russia doesn’t have enough troops to maintain its hold on Ukrainian territory that they have already occupied. The personnel strength of Russian Battalion Battle Groups is reportedly down to as low as 10% of the original complement of 600 men.
· The continued and increasing pressure on Russia applied by Ukrainian partisans.
6/10 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)
According to the Oxford English Dictionary Schizophrenia is a long-term mental disorder of a type involving a breakdown in the relation between thought, emotion, and behaviour, leading to faulty perception, inappropriate actions and feelings, withdrawal from reality and personal relationships into fantasy and delusion, and a sense of mental fragmentation.
In simple terms Putin must resolve his personal dilemma: Is he suffering from the disintegration of the Soviet Empire or the Czarist one? Are his actions an attempt to emulate Stalin or an attempt to emulate Peter the First? Is he carrying out a historic mission or is he acting out a historic fantasy?
These questions are of particular import for the French. Are they worried about humiliating Europe’s latest monarchy or the newly reconstituted Soviet Man? Can they continue doing business on both sides if they sit on the fence, or do they have to choose sides?
It is not unusual to encounter similar mental disorders amongst leaders who have fallen sick with power. Unable to make rational decisions they descend into a spiral of inadequacy, self pity and excuses; justified by the simple optic that I am the State.
Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely.
INTERNATIONAL
Canada has frozen Russian assets worth $328 million, a statement by the Canadian police.
This is what the front pages of British newspapers look like today. Topic №1 - the death sentence of two British people in the "DNR".
The Government of Spain intends to send an official invitation to Volodymyr Zelenskyi to participate in the NATO summit, which will be held in Madrid on 29 and 30 June.
Ouest-France: French President - France may transfer contactless fuses for CAESAR shells to Ukraine.
Reuters: India doubles Russian oil purchases. Deliveries amounted to over 840,000 barrels per day. In June, Kpler’s commodity analysts believe that purchases will rise again. The State Department calls on the country not to increase the procurement value. He noted that the US could not ban crude oil purchases because it has not imposed secondary sanctions on these sales.
The Guardian: Senegalese President states that Africa faces a severe famine without Ukrainian wheat. He called on Russia and Ukraine to ensure the safe passage of grain carriers from Ukrainian ports. He is pinning hope for a solution to the food crisis on the UN, which should take the lead in the negotiations.
Permanent Representative of Ukraine to OSCE: An international naval mission is needed to ensure the functioning of export corridors in the Black Sea for the export of Ukrainian grain.
● Only two of the 60 school headmasters in the temporarily captured Kherson agreed to the demands of the Russian invaders to switch to the Russian curriculum
"Gazprom" and dozens of other Russian companies will move from the EU to Turkey. Over the past 48 days, Russia and Turkey have been actively discussing the transition of sanctioned Russian companies. 43 Russian companies and oligarchs, including Gazprom, will move their headquarters from Europe to Istanbul. This process is expected to start in July
Bloomberg: The Netherlands and Denmark are against granting Ukraine the status of a candidate member of the EU
Swiss Federal Department of Defense: Switzerland has refused Poland’s request for the transfer of its German Leopard 2A4 tanks. Poland substantiated this request by the fact that it supplied Ukraine with a significant amount of weapons, including heavy ones, and now needs to replenish its own stocks of armored vehicles.
Reuters: Finland plans to build barriers on the border with Russia to increase readiness for hybrid threats. The length of the border is about 1300 kilometers, a significant part of it is covered with forest and marked only by signs.
Reuters: European Commissioner for Internal Trade and Services urged Hungary to stop discriminatory pricing of fuel for cars with foreign license plates - otherwise it faces a lawsuit.
The Athletic: English Premier League suspends £43 million deal with Russian TV channel 'Match TV' to broadcast Premier League matches in Russia
Lithuanian Post began selling stamps with the image of the Bayraktar UAV, paid for by donations from Lithuanians to help Ukraine.
Lithuania reacted to the bill of the Russian State Duma which proposed canceling the recognition of the Republic of Lithuania’s independence . Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that Russia is ruled by beasts since "only such a country could start a war in Ukraine", and “the intention of not recognizing the independence of Lithuania is barbaric”. "We are ready to defend ourselves," he stressed.
Meduza: According to sources, the self-proclaimed D/LNR and the occupied territories of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are planned to unite into one federal district within Russia. The creation of the district is supervised by Boris Rapoport, Deputy Head of the Russian State Council.
European Commission: The issue of granting Ukraine the status of a candidate country for the European Union will be discussed on June 17. The discussion will be held in preparation for the EU summit on June 23-24.
● The European Union will allocate another 205 million euros to Ukraine for humanitarian aid.
● The European Union will allocate 7.25 million euros for the investigation of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
Russian Media: The warehouse of the Zagorsk Optical and Mechanical Plant in Russia, that produces military optics for the Russian army, was on fire.
Delfi: At an extraordinary meeting on June 8, the Latvian government agreed to continue supporting Ukrainian citizens who arrived in Latvia.
Spiegel: German Health Minister paid a working visit to Ukraine yesterday. He offered German assistance in caring for Ukrainians wounded during the war. The assistance includes treatment in Germany, as well as care for the wounded, especially help for people with severe burns and people who lost limbs in the war.
The Washington Post: Head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley - The US military has developed a plan to train the Ukrainian military in the use of Western multiple launch missile systems (MLRS). According to the article, at this stage it is planned to train "a platoon of Ukrainian soldiers" by the American side. In addition, according to General Milley, the plan also sees the UK train "one platoon at a time."
NATIONAL
The Russian Federation shelled the Chernihiv region this morning. There are no losses among the local population, a non-residential building was damaged.
British intelligence
● There is likely a critical shortage of medicines in Kherson, while Mariupol is at risk of a major cholera outbreak
● The United Kingdom Defense Ministry also reported that Russia has never been able to encircle a wider area from the north and south of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, despite the control of most of Severodonetsk.
Security Service of Ukraine: Medvedchuk’s political strategist was charged with treason The documents seized during the searches include analytical materials on the "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.
The Guardian: Deputy Head of Military Intelligence - There is an "artillery war" in Donbas, and Ukraine loses in such a confrontation with Russia. According to him, Ukraine uses 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day. Armed Forces of Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces.
An Iraqi veteran, Ryan O'Leary, who fought near Mykolaiv, said that his desire to fight against the Russians was fueled by his anger at the many war crimes he saw against the civilian population. "My goal now is to get Russia out of Ukraine, and if that means sticking it out and fighting for the next 'X' number of months, so be it", - he said.
Ukrainian Military expert Oleh Zhdanov is sure that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will continue Angela Merkel’s policy and will make every effort to ensure that German weapons do not get to Ukraine.
● Zhdanov notes that this will not be fatal for Ukraine but painful. And we can replace German weapons with the American ones. Now only financial aid comes from Germany, and although the amounts are huge, it still resembles attempts to buy off, - said Zhdanov.
Company’s press service: Skoda manufacture has reopened in Ukraine. Automobile plant "Eurocar", on June 10, resumes production of cars in Solomonovo, Zakarpattia region. The first batch of 80 cars will be crossovers Kodiaq and Karoq. The idle plant premises will serve as a centre of residence for the temporarily displaced persons.
Institute for the Study of War
● Russian forces made marginal gains north of Sloviansk but are likely to face difficulties assaulting the city itself because of the tactical challenges posed by crossing the
● According to the Institute, Russian forces continued to fight for the Azot industrial zone in Severodonetsk under the cover of heavy artillery fire. Also, Russian forces made incremental advances to the east of Bakhmut and will continue efforts to cut Ukrainian lines of communication to the northeast of Bakhmut.
CNN: Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy - Ukraine has already lost 25% of arable land. Also, Russia stole about 500,000 tons of grain from the occupied territories. "We expect that the harvest will be about 35% less than in previous years, that is, about 30 million tons less, 35-40% less, almost half of last year’s harvest".
This is the largest NFT image in the world created by Ukrainians.
It will be presented to Elon Musk as a gratitude for the help and support of Ukraine. The NFT consists of drawings of 20 displaced children.
KIIS Survey: 42.9% of Ukrainians, even in the event of a continuation of the war and the threat of bombing, still plan the future of their children in Ukraine. At the same time, 76.8% of respondents want a change of power in the Russian Federation to a democracy, and 84.5% agree with the capitulation of Russia and its disarmament.
Head of Ukrzaliznytsia: Russia has begun systematically shelling railcar repair plants in Ukraine. "The next day (after the attack on the Kyiv DVRZ district - ed.), the Russians hit another car repair plant. They hit systematically every day on our railway infrastructure."
The "head" of the so-called "DPR" Denys Pushylin says that the "tribunal" over Ukrainian servicemen who left 'Azovstal' would be completed before the end of summer.
President's Office: The West bears its share of responsibility for what is now happening in the occupied territories of Ukraine. "For Bucha, for Mariupol, Kherson. And many other settlements where our citizens are raped and killed every day."
National Corruption Prevention Agency of Ukraine: A native of Lviv, Russian oligarch Mykhailo Fridman is consulting with Ukrainian authorities about obtaining Ukrainian citizenship and re-registering major assets in Ukraine. "Such a scenario is also possible for other major Russian businessmen of Ukrainian origin, for example, Viktor Vekselberg, who was born in Drohobych".
DW: Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration: Three EU countries oppose granting membership candidate status to Ukraine. She declined to specify which countries were in question, saying that it could harm the final decision on granting Ukraine candidate status.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
07:28 June 10
● The Russian army, forces of up to 30 battalion tactical groups, is conducting combat operations in the Slobozhanske direction. The Russians systematically fire to restrain the actions of Ukrainian troops and prevent their further progress and entry into the state border line.
● In the Avdiivka, Kurakhove, Novopavlivske and Zaporizhzhia directions, the Russian Federation exerts a systematic fire influence on the positions of Ukrainian units intending to limit their actions
● Ukrainian Aviation launched a series of attacks on strongholds, places of accumulation of equipment and personnel and field warehouses of Russia in areas of five different settlements of Kherson.
● The motorized rifle unit of the 1st Army Corps "DNR" in full composition refused to participate in combat operations.
18:05 June 9
The process of formation of the so-called "people's militia" of Belarus has been activated. In the military commissariats, a meeting is held with local residents in order to explain the need to create these units.
● In the Kharkiv direction, the Russians continue to fire on the units of the Ukrainian troops to prevent them from moving deep into the temporarily occupied territory.
● In the area of the settlement of Dolyna, the Donetsk region, artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine inflicted fire damage on the accumulation of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation. Losses are being specified.
● In the Severodonetsk direction, the Russians conducted assault operations in Severodonetsk, they are failing, the fighting continues.
● On the northwestern outskirts of the Toshkivka settlement, Ukrainian soldiers successfully repulsed the enemy assault.
● The Russian army has partial success in the directions to the settlements of Komyshuvakha and Rota.
● In the Yuzhnobuzhsk direction, the troops of the Russian Federation, under the cover of artillery fire and MLRS, are building up a system of defensive lines - they are equipping positions and installing mine-explosive barriers.
● In the Bakhmut direction, the Russians launched a missile strike near the city of Kramatorsk.
● In order to determine the routes of advance and weaknesses in the defense of the Ukrainian troops, the Russian army conducted reconnaissance in the area of the settlement of Nahirne. The Armed Forces of Ukraine gave a decisive rebuff and forced the enemy to withdraw.
An intelligence representative of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine explains in a commentary to 'Ukrainska Pravda' why the withdrawal of the military from 'Azovstal' should not be considered surrender: "Ukrainian defenders did not give weapons to the Russians, but left the factory after they themselves agreed on the conditions of detention."
The SBU published the interrogation of prisoners claiming that they were hired by Euro Polis to guard oil platforms. "Euro Polis" is a company recruiting mercenaries in Russia and associated with the head of "PVK Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: There are now about 4.8 million Ukrainian refugees in European countries.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russian troops are trying to resume an offensive to completely capture the Zaporizhzhia region.
Zelenskyi signed a decree imposing personal sanctions against Putin, his speaker Peskov and a number of other Russian officials.
● In total, more than 260 Russians and 236 enterprises of the Russian Federation were included in the sanctions list of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
A Russian controlled court in occupied Donbas sentenced «foreign mercenaries who fought on the side of Ukraine» to death. British Aiden Aslin, Shaun Pinner and Moroccan Brahim Saadoun have been sentenced to death.
● British Foreign Secretary: Condemned the verdict of the court of the so-called "DPR" for British fighters and called it illegal.
A bill on stripping Ukrainian citizenship for treason was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada
Minister of Finance: By the end of 2022, Ukraine may receive about $20 billion in grants and credit assistance from international partners.
Center of National Resistance: Residents in the Russian-occupied territories continue to resist the transition to the rubles, so Russians are forced to use the hryvnia.
Regimental press service: The bodies of 58 defenders of «Azovstal» were brought to Kyiv - four of them probably served in «Azov». The Patronage Service of the «Azov» regiment will carry out the identification process. The «Azovstal» defenders will be buried at the Memorial to the fallen heroes of Azovstal; on the slopes of the Dnipro River.
The Ukrainian President met with American philanthropist Howard Buffett, son of billionaire investor Warren Buffett, in Kyiv and discussed ways to help rebuild the country.
State Security Service - Intercepted Russian Communications
● Russians are going to send captured Ukrainians to clear minefields. For this, they even invented a new term: "mine clearance in a natural way." “They were discussing, it seems, the moment: to help you or the city of Mariupol to clear mines in a natural way, or they want to send detainees from Melitopol to the trenches”, – a serviceman of the FSB (Russian Intelligence - ed.) of the Russian Federation with the call sign “Kaspiy” tells his colleague.
● "They shot their people" - spouses from occupied Donbas "DNR" discuss the nuances of the "propaganda campaign" on signing Russian military service contracts. "The agitators arrived. One signed immediately. The others were forcibly taken to an unknown destination. They do not answer calls. They were put in a pit. The pit is a basement. Seven "scapegoats" signed later. They were promised pay of 230 thousand roubles. And on the same day, they were sent to the front line. Of the seven - four wounded, one killed”
● A Russian colonel said that Ukrainian prisoners of war do not react to pain and behave as if «we(ed. - Russians) are their prisoners.
● Russian commanders sell their soldiers' rations, so the soldiers continue to eat dogs.
According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 92% of Ukrainians have a negative attitude towards the Russian Federation, and only 2% have a positive attitude.
Minister of Infrastructure: The Czech Republic will give 'Ukravtodor' two pontoon bridges for the repair of destroyed roads. "We have already managed to open passage at 40 temporary crossings, and road companies continue to build temporary bypasses where communication is impossible due to blown up bridges", – the minister says.
KHARKIV
Social Media: In the city of Balakleya, which is under Russian control, children are offered to "leave for the summer" to a camp in the Russian Federation, and graduates to enter a Russian university.
Regional Military Administration: As a result of yesterday’s shelling by the Russian troops of Zolochev, Kharkiv region, one person died, five were injured. Also, because of the shelling, two houses were destroyed, 14 were damaged. A power substation was struck - now half the city is without electricity.
Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office: Last night, the Russian military shelled the Novobavarskyi district of Kharkiv. As a result of enemy shelling, three people were killed, and five were injured. A restaurant was destroyed, and a school was damaged.
General Staff: Russian unit in Kharkiv region - Ukraine’s Armed Forces report early on June 10 that all members of Russia’s motorized infantry unit of the First Army Corps refused to fight after suffering heavy losses in Kharkiv Oblast (from today’s issue of the “Kyiv Independent”). From the General Staff report, “Despite the compulsory measures by the command of the occupation troops, refusal to participate in combat by units equipped with forcibly mobilized personnel from temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk. It became known that due to the losses received during the fights with Ukrainian defenders in the Kharkiv region, the motor-shooting unit from the 1st Army Corps in its full composition refused to participate in the combat.
LUHANSK
Strategic Communications Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The Ukrainian military destroyed the base of Russian mercenaries PMC "Wagner" in Kadiivka, the Luhansk region.
Regional Military Administration: The Ukrainian military can quickly dislodge the Russian occupiers from Severodonetsk if they receive long-range weapons from the West
● The Russians are shelling Lysychansk from large-caliber artillery, it is dangerous to be even in shelters.
● The water level in the Seversky Donets River has fallen due to the heat, this will make it easier for the Russian military to build crossings.
● There are fierce battles in the quarters of Severodonetsk. "The Buryats were removed from Severodonetsk, because they are dying like flies," and specified that they could not withstand the fights with the Ukrainian defenders. Based on evidence from Irpin & Bucha, cities where Buryat units operated, rather than fighting a conventional military opponent, Buryats seem to specialize in rape and murder of defenseless civilians.
DONETSK
Regional Military Administration: Yesterday, the Russians killed 3 civilians of Donbas: 2 - in Avdiivka and 1 - in Novoukrainka.
Adviser to the mayor of Mariupol: The Russians began to give people pensions in rubles in the temporarily occupied Mariupol. According to their data, about 47 thousand pensioners are registered", – he says, adding that in terms of hryvnia, the pension is 2.6 thousand (about $88). Pensions were issued in cash that were brought in armored vehicles the day before.
Military Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine: The Russian “administration” of Melitopol is urgently looking for additional freezers and industrial refrigerators. The fact is that the meat-processing plant, converted into a mortuary, is already filled with the bodies of the murdered occupiers and can no longer accept “Cargo 200′′ (ed. - a Russian military code name for casualties to be transported from the battlefield).
ZAPORIZHIA
Regional Military Administration: The Armed Forces of Ukraine have moved the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region.
● Russian troops have withdrawn from the temporarily occupied Melitopol in the Kherson direction. At the same time, irregular militia of the so-called "DPR" entered there, continuing to terrorize civilians.
KHERSON
Photo from social networks: The Russians dismantled the Ukrainian trident on the central square of the temporarily occupied city of Oleshky; Kherson region.
Operational command Pivden (South): The Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out two airstrikes on the Russian forces. Ukrainian defenders destroyed three ammunition dumps in three settlements of the Kherson region. Thirty Russians were killed; two armored vehicles and four trucks were destroyed.
● Russian invaders, together with their families, are relocated to the temporarily occupied Kherson and other cities of the region, trying to convince the locals that they are here forever.
● The missile threat from the sea has not disappeared, because the Russian Federation keeps 3 surface ships, a submarine and 4 large landing ships there. The Ukrainian military also does not rule out a landing.
DNIPRO
Regional Military Administration: The enemy again shelled the Kryvyi Rih district at night. Three communities were under fire. There is destruction in the Zelenodolsk territorial community. A 41-year-old woman was injured by shrapnel. In Shyroke and Apostolove territorial communities - no one was injured.
● The largest metallurgical plant in Ukraine, "ArcelorMittal", which had previously stopped due to the war, is reopening in Kryvyi Rih.
ODESA
Regional Military Administration: Ukraine has received enough Harpoon anti-ship missiles to sink the entire Black Sea Fleet of Russia. «Now we have so many «Harpoons» that we can sink the entire Black Sea Fleet. Why not?»
KYIV
National Guard of Ukraine divers lifted a Russian Mi-35M from the bottom of the Kyiv reservoir with the bodies of two pilots and ammunition that was not used
Regional Military Administration: In the Kyiv region, the operational headquarters is working around the clock in an enhanced mode. Defense lines have been strengthened in the region and military personnel have been strengthened."
Kyiv City Council will ask the government for permission to build a military Cemetery Honoring Defenders of Ukraine. The capital authorities propose to build a cemetery next to the tract Babyn Yar. According to the mayor, Kyiv is ready to take on all the costs associated with the establishment of a military cemetery.
Deputy Chairman of the Kyiv Administration: Kyiv does not plan to open a beach season on the Dnipro River because of the threat of explosive objects in water.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis