Ukraine - 7/23/2023 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
July 23, 2023
From Bohdan (my thoughts in bold face)
It strikes me that putler is using the blockade of Ukrainian cargos, not only grain and agricultural products, to catalyze another wave of refugees to seek European shores. Nothing new in that observation, except that now everyone expects the worst of Putler while 17 months ago were giving him the benefit of the doubt.
What hasn't changed is that there is no international interdiction to halt Putin. 17 months ago, the day after the invasion started, the EU and US started sending arms to Ukraine and imposing sanctions. The cost of direct assistance to Ukraine, military and budgetary, is just shy of $200 billion. The indirect cost created by energy sanctions on the EU alone is north of $650 billion over this period. I am aware that the global economy has suffered much more than the EU. I also believe that this has been borne most by the poorest in Africa.
Yet to this day Ukraine which is capable of defeating putler's rashist regime, is unable to do so because it lacks sufficient military means. So we continue to pay an extraordinary price, which is about to increase as a result of food shortages, because Ukraine is not armed.
Putler's terrorist calculus keeps working because Western leaders capable of negating his formulas appear ready to let their people, and their neighbors, pay the bills of war.
By failing to make up his mind about delivering ATACMS to Ukraine, when at the same time other countries like Morocco are reportedly receiving them and failing to provide F-16s on a timely basis, critical to Ukraine undertaking the combined arms operations that they were trained to execute, President Biden runs the risk of being remembered as the “Ditherer-in-Chief.” How can any country’s army, even the U.S. Army, conduct combined arms operations without tactical air support? If that wasn’t enough, some in the Biden Administration are now talking to the pundits in the media, suggesting to them that Ukraine needs more training in conducting combined arms operations and, as if on cue, the pundits write articles such as this one, in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, entitled, “Ukraine’s Lack of Weaponry and Training Risks Stalemate in Fight With Russia.”
Perhaps stalemate is the outcome that the Biden Administration really wants. The Biden Administration is increasingly becoming prone to the criticism of many Ukrainians, and Ukraine’s supporters in the West, that the U.S. really doesn’t want Ukraine to win outright, because the U.S. is either concerned about what might happen in Russia because of an outright Ukrainian victory, or the U.S. simply wants to degrade Russia’s combat power using the blood of Ukrainians, or perhaps both.
As I argued in a previous email, Russia has already lost. What is the Biden Administration waiting for?
“Tony Blair Was Urged to Back Ukraine’s EU Aspirations in the Face of Russia Threats”/BBC
This is another recent revelation, similar to the letter from Former President Nixon to then President Clinton. The article states, “Kataryna Wolczuk, professor of East European politics at the University of Birmingham, believes that by 2001 UK leaders had little concern about Russia's future plans for Ukraine, as President Putin was "still in his Euro-Atlantic ally mood".
“After the talks at Chevening with the Ukrainians, Roger Liddle's (an adviser to P.M. Blair) conclusion was: "We have too rosy a view of Putin (who according to them is a clever, presentable power politician, but no democratic hero). And we rubbish Ukraine." “
“Prof Wolczuk argues that President Kuchma and his entourage were instinctively pro-European: "They knew they couldn't trust Putin and Russia, and yet the system Kuchma presided over was a hostage of that system." “
These discussions to took place amid the backdrop of the murder of Ukrainian journalist Georgiy Gongadze, in which former Pres. Kuchma was implicated, and the “Ukraine Without Kuchma” protests that took place in 2000. Allegations of corruption in Ukraine, no matter how true, are always conveniently brought out by the West, often when the subject of Ukraine’s European integration is raised.
“How Russian Soldiers Shared Evidence of Their Own War Crime”/Kyiv Independent
After the description of the Nova Khakovka Dam, several volunteer groups including 1 from Germany called “4 Paws Rescue” set about rescuing pets from the resulting floodwaters. In return for their efforts, Russian gunners on the opposite bank of the Dnipro River started shelling the rescuers. Russians provided the evidence, in the form of drone footage.
According to the article, one of the Russian units engaged in shelling the volunteers working to rescue pets is the Lavadia Private Military Company. The article further states, “The Livadia private military company was reportedly founded by Sergey Aksyonov, the head of the Russian occupation authorities in Crimea, illegally installed in 2014.”
“According to multiple media reports, Livadia includes the Convoy private military company, an offshoot of the Wagner Group. Convoy is reportedly commanded by Konstantin Pikalov, aka “Mazay,” a close confidant of Yevgeny Prigozhin who had frequently handled Prigozhin’s business in various African countries.”
“Livadia is part of a network of a few different units referred to as the Aksyonovites, after their leader. The primary mission that the Aksyonovites were recruited for is to prevent Ukraine from liberating the peninsula.” An international arrest warrant for Sergey Aksyonov, known as “the Goblin” as a result of his alleged previous activities in the Crimean Mob, is long overdue.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” covers a Ukrainian air strike on a large ammunition dump, this time in Central Crimea. It took place yesterday. In his report, he said that the ammunition dump was near a large airbase. The Simferopol commercial airport, where I’ve been several times, is adjacent to a large airbase. They share the same runway. This airbase, plus another nearby, were included in the lease that Ukraine negotiated with Russia that allowed Russia to use Sevastopol as the base for the Black Sea Fleet. I wonder if the airport sustained damage from this strike.
The Latest Denys makes some interesting points, about whether cluster munitions effective against Russian troops in trenches, or best used against Russians in open country.
7/23/2023 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon July 22 to 12:00 noon July 23, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Sunday, July 23
12:49 am: Polish border guards did not let a Russian tennis player into the country for the WTA tournament in Warsaw. This was reported by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Administration of Poland
● Two-time Grand Slam finalist and former world number two Vira Zvonareva tried to enter Poland on a visa issued by France.
8:11 am: The German defense concern Rheinmetall will produce for Ukraine 300,000 shells for Gepard self-propelled artillery systems, which help the Defense Forces shoot down Russian drones, - Bild.
8:11 am: In the US, tests of the PHASA-35 high-altitude drone of the British company BAE Systems, which can be in constant flight mode for up to a year, have been completed - Defense Post.
11:26 am: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg convenes a meeting of the new Ukraine-NATO Council on July 26 at Kyiv's request.
● This is reported by DW with reference to the comment of NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu to the dpa agency.
● "The parties will meet to hold consultations on the latest developments and discuss the transportation of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea," Lungescu said.
Saturday, July 22
6:40 pm: The US has successfully tested a drone that spies from the stratosphere — BILD.
● According to the developers (BAE Systems), the drone will be able to stay in the air for a year thanks to power from solar batteries.
● "At an altitude of 20 km, the drone cannot be seen by radars, it is invulnerable to air defense systems. It can play a decisive role in the war in Ukraine," the newspaper writes.
10:11 pm: When the Ukrainian military deploys all its forces, it will lead to changes on the front.
● This was stated by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the Aspen Security Forum.
● "You probably heard, and many people said, that the Russians have prepared serious and fortified defense lines. The Ukrainians are breaking through them," Blinken added.
11:21 pm: A repair hub for Ukrainian Leopard tanks has become operational in Gliwice, Poland. The first two cars have already arrived there.
● This was announced by the Minister of Defense of Poland, Mariusz Blaszczak.
NATIONAL
Sunday July 23
12:21 am: The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NAZK) will check the entire leadership of military committees within 3 months.
● In addition to the military commissars themselves, the property of their relatives and other close people will be checked, the head of The National Anti Corruption Commission announced on the air of the telethon.
● Currently, law enforcement officers, People's Deputies and deputies of local councils are also being checked.
12:26 am: activity of Tu-22m3 strategic aircraft from Mozdok airfield (North Caucasus) was recorded.
12:41 am: Missile danger in the Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kherson regions, where an air alert has been announced. The threat of cruise missile launches from Tu-22m3 aircraft.
3:43 am: The departure of a Tu-22m3 strategic aircraft from the Mozdok airfield (North Caucasus) was recorded - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
4:28 am: Alleged launches of Kh-22 cruise missiles from the Black Sea in the direction of the southern regions were recorded, — Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
4:42 am: Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv regions - missile danger, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
4:44 am: Tu-22m3 long-range strategic bombers allegedly conducted simulated launches of cruise missiles from the Black Sea, - Air Force of the ZSU
4:50 am: The air alert in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv regions is related to the activity of the Tu-22m3 from the Shaykovka airfield of the Kaluga region of the Russian Federation, - Air Force 7:55 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: Aviation of the Defense Forces over the past day has carried out 12 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment of the Russian Federation. Also, our defenders destroyed 4 operational-tactical reconnaissance UAVs
● During the day, units of missile forces and artillery hit 21 artillery pieces in firing positions, an anti-aircraft missile complex and another important target.
8:57 am: Attention! The activity of Russian tactical aviation in the south-eastern direction. Do not ignore the air alarm signal, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
10:12 am: "The main goal of the missile strikes on Odesa and the region is an attempt to completely isolate Ukraine's access to the Black Sea," Oleksiy Danilov, head of the NSDC of Ukraine.
● And also, through an act of intimidation, to warn and neutralize international efforts to restore the functioning of the "grain corridor".
Saturday, July 22
1:25 pm: The Armed Forces confirmed that they hit an oil depot and ammunition depots in temporarily occupied Crimea.
3:33 pm: "The dynamics at the front are about to change," — Financial Times with reference to President Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
● The president emphasized that the offensive had to be postponed due to insufficient amounts of ammunition, weapons and properly trained brigades, which gave Russia time to build defense lines.
● However, the Ukrainian military is moving forward, and now Ukraine needs more long-range missiles and modern fighter jets.
4:00 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyi held a telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
● "We discussed the implementation of the agreements reached during the Vilnius summit of the Alliance, as well as further actions regarding the integration of Ukraine into NATO. We shared assessments of the current situation in the Black Sea. We determined the priority and future steps necessary for the unblocking and sustainable functioning of the Black Sea "grain corridor", - said the president.
5:28 pm: The activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern and southeastern direction, reports the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● "There is a threat of the use of aviation weapons! In the event of an alarm, go to the shelter," the message says.
6:00 pm: "Sens Bank" has now officially become state-owned, according to the statement of the National Bank of Ukraine.
● "The specified step will contribute to the protection of the interests of the Bank's depositors and will allow to avoid threats to financial stability in Ukraine," the NBU noted.
● It will be recalled that earlier "Sens Bank" was called "Alfa Bank", and its owners were sanctioned Russian oligarchs.
6:51 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces as of 18:00 on July 22:
● "During the day, the Russian occupiers struck another blow on the territory of Ukraine, using "Shahed" attack drones.
● As a result of successful combat operations by the forces and means of air defense of the Air Force, all 5 attack UAVs were destroyed.
● In addition, the enemy launched 4 missile and 36 air strikes, carried out 23 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● "The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk directions, heavy battles are ongoing.
● About 30 combat clashes took place during the day."
● "The presence of citizens of Uzbekistan was noted in the units of the Russian occupying forces stationed in the temporarily occupied Horlivka of the Donetsk region.
● The specified persons arrived in the city of Mariupol to carry out construction works.
● Upon arrival, their passports were confiscated and they were mobilized to join the occupation forces as volunteers."
● "For a day, the aviation of the defense forces made 8 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment of the enemy.
● Also, our defenders destroyed 4 operational-tactical reconnaissance UAVs.
● Units of rocket troops and artillery hit 7 enemy artillery pieces in firing positions during the day.
9:51 pm: The Energy Support Fund of Ukraine has already accumulated about $220 million.
● This was announced by the Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Galushchenko.
● "We expect that about $300 million will be accumulated by the end of the year," Galushchenko said.
10:57 pm: Ukraine has its latest air defense systems, - Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Chernev
● He said that it is not an analogue of Patriot, SAMP-T or IRIS-T, and is more similar to HAWK - a medium-range system: "They are Ukrainian-made and Ukrainian-developed. They are being tested quite successfully, the missiles have already been developed."
11:03 pm: The air alert in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions is related to the activity of enemy tactical aircraft in the southeast direction.
MORDOR - RUZZIA
Saturday, July 22
12:27 pm: A video from the Krasnogvardiy district in the temporarily occupied Crimea appeared online.
● Local media reports that the BC warehouse is detonating.
7:26 pm: Oleksandr Borodai, one of the former "leaders" of pro-Russian militants in the Donetsk region, was wounded in the Bakhmut region, — rosZMI.
● It is reported that he managed to survive the shelling.
10:31 pm: New interception of GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
● It is about the disdainful attitude of servicemen of the Soviet Union towards civilians and the prohibition of passage through checkpoints in the Belgorod region, including to places of permanent residence.
11:40 pm: A new satellite image of the Wagner camp in the Belarusian village of Tsel was taken today by the Umbra satellite and provided by Maxar Technologies.
● According to Maxar Senior Director Steven Wood, the camp has grown significantly since the previous July 16 snapshot. "Dozens, if not hundreds, of machinery and equipment"arrived there.
REGIONS
SUMY
Sunday, July 23
11:46 am Sumy RMA: During the night and morning, the Russians fired 4 shots, 10 explosions were recorded.
● 4 settlements in 4 territorial communities were shelled: Krasnopilska, Khotynska, Seredino-Budska, Shalyginska.
● Previously - without victims and destruction.
KHARKIV
Sunday, July 23
11:02 am Kharkiv RMA: During the past day, the Russians with artillery, mortars and with the use of aviation massively shelled populated areas of Kharkiv, Chuguyiv, Kupyan and Izyum districts.
● As a result of several shellings, a 57-year-old woman died in Kupyansk. A 45-year-old civilian died in the village of Dvorichna. A 60-year-old man was injured and hospitalized.
● Around 1:10 p.m., a 72-year-old woman detonated a mine near the entrance in Izyum. She was hospitalized with moderate injuries.
DONETSK
Sunday, July 23
10:31 am Donetsk RMA: The Russians attacked the Druzhkivka community the night before: 1 dead and 4 wounded in Sofiivka, 3 wounded in Druzhkivka. Also, 1 person died and 1 was injured in Toretsk, Shahivska community, a barley field burned down,
● Avdiivka, Kuraikhivska, Maryinska, Toretska, Chasovoyarska communities and Siversk were also under fire.
● In just one day, the Russians killed 4 residents of Donetsk region and wounded 11 more.
Saturday, July 22
12:08 pm Social Networks: Explosions were heard in the Kramatorsk district of the Donetsk region.
ZAPORIZHIA
Sunday, July 23
2:30 am: Zaporizhzhia region - air alarm, OVA.
2:31 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Zaporizhzhia.
7:40 am: In the temporarily captured town of Energodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, the Russians have intensified repression against ZANP workers who refuse to cooperate and enter into contracts with the Russian occupation administration, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● Instead, Ukrainians continue to resist: they do not go to work, sabotage the implementation of the decisions of the occupation administration, etc. In turn, the Russians apply measures of psychological and physical influence to such workers. Employees of the Rosguard and the FSB of the Russian Federation use intimidation, threats, blackmail, and also beat Ukrainian specialists, take cash, funds from bank cards, and seize mobile phones.
9:56 am Zaporizhia RMA: At night, Russian troops attacked the outskirts of the regional center and the Zaporizhia district with four rockets - there were no casualties.
● the Russians made 69 strikes on 20 peaceful settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region. So far, it has been possible to record damage to 12 civilian objects: housing and property of citizens.
Saturday, July 22
12:39 pm Zaporizhia RMA: Over the last day, Russian troops fired 85 shots at 22 settlements in the Vasyliv, Pologiv, and Zaporizhia districts
● So far, the destruction of 30 residential objects has been recorded. There were no casualties.
DNIPRO
Sunday, July 23
8:49 am Dnipro RMA: Russian heavy artillery shelled the populated areas of the region twice. The Marganets community and Nikopol are targeted.
● In the latter, three private houses and the same number of farm buildings were damaged. A passenger car and a power line were affected. People are whole.
9:19 am: Attention! Dnipropetrovsk region - missile danger! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
ODESA
Sunday, July 23
12:00 am: The Prosecutor General's Office confirmed that the scandalous Odesa military commander Borisov was informed of the suspicion but noted that his whereabouts are currently unknown.
12:54 am: Launches of cruise missiles in the direction of Odesa region were recorded.
12:57 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Odesa.
12:59 am: Launches of Kalibr cruise missiles and Onyx supersonic anti-ship missiles in the direction of the southern regions were recorded.
● Odesa, Mykolaiv regions - stay in shelter.
1:05 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard again in Odesa.
1:13 am: The re-launch of the X-22 in the direction of the Odesa region was recorded.
1:18 am Odesa RMA: Air defense forces are working in Odesa, the head of OVA Kiper said.
1:32 am: Defeated the missile threat to the southern regions.
1:58 am: As a result of the Russian attack in Odesa, the Transfiguration Cathedral was damaged. Video from local social networks.
2:12 am: Civil infrastructure, residential buildings and a religious institution have been damaged in Odesa, the head of OVA Kiper said. Information about the injured is being clarified.
3:08 am: As of 03:00 in Odesa, 18 victims, including 4 children.
● 14 people were hospitalized in city hospitals, three of them are children.
3:24 am: We have one dead civilian as a result of a nighttime terrorist attack by Russians in Odesa, Oleg Kiper, head of Odesa RMA
4:30 am: Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov arrived at the site of the Savior and Transfiguration Cathedral destroyed by the Russians.
● In addition to significant damage to the building, Orthodox shrines were damaged: the Kasperov icon of the Mother of God, who is the patroness of Odessa, was retrieved from under the rubble.
5:04 am: View of the Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa after the rocket attack.
● "The destruction was colossal, it hit the right side and penetrated to minus the first floor. Half of the cathedral was left without a roof. The central piles, the foundation were broken. All the windows and stucco were blown out. There was a fire, the part where the icons and candles are sold in the church caught fire," Archdeacon Andriy Palchuk, a cleric of the Odesa diocese of the UOC, said.
● One of the reasons why Ukraine has won outright is evident in the video clips appearing on social media soon after the cathedral was badly damaged – volunteers already starting to clean things up, preparatory to reconstruction.
5:07 am: Among the objects damaged as a result of the night attack by the Russians is the House of Scientists and houses located nearby.
· In a Tweet earlier today, Anne Applebaum suggested that Russia had so far declined to hit central Odesa because of its significance to Imperial Russia. That they’re now directing their attention to religious and cultural objects is an admission by Russia that they know they have lost.
5:34 am: In Odesa, the number of victims as a result of the enemy attack on July 23 has increased. Currently, at least 22 people are known to have been injured, four of whom are children. As previously reported, one person died.
5:45 a.m.: After the Russian attack on Odesa, rescuers found a woman from under the rubble of a private house, she miraculously survived, said Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman for Odesa OVA.
● Currently, the relevant services are recording the destruction of a private house, after which utility workers will begin to eliminate the consequences of the attack.
5:54 am: As a result of the night attack of the Russians, Zhvanetsky Boulevard suffered significant damage: infrastructure was destroyed, nearby houses were damaged.
● This was reported in the Odesa City Council.
6:42 am: As a result of the Russian missile attack on Odesa, 19 people were injured and one person was killed, Oleg Kiper, head of Odesa OVA
● 6 residential buildings, including apartment buildings, were destroyed. Two architectural monuments, a temple, were damaged. Dozens of cars were mutilated. Many buildings have broken windows, damaged roofs and facades.
● Earlier, the city police reported that the number of victims was 22. We are waiting for detailed information.
7:03 am Operational Command South: During the missile attack at night, the enemy hit Odeshchyna with at least 5 types of missiles of all types of bases: Caliber, Onyx, Kh-22 and Iskander-K, and also used Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
● There are several potholes in the city, there are power outages, which may cause traffic difficulties, and the route of city transport will probably be changed.
9:23 am: At night, the Russians fired 19 missiles of various types over Odessa:
● 5 winged "Onyx" from the coastal missile complex "Bastion" (Crimea);
● 3 Kh-22 air-launched cruise missiles - launched from Tu-22MZ aircraft (Black Sea area);
● 4 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles - presumably from a submarine (Black Sea area);
● 5 "Iskander-K" land-based cruise missiles (Crimea);
● 2 ballistic missiles "Iskander-M" (Crimea).
● As a result of combat work by the forces and means of the Air Force, 9 air targets were destroyed.
10:47 am: A man born in 1974 died as a result of nighttime shelling. He was cut by shrapnel - the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko.
● 22 people were injured. Among them are 4 children: 11, 12 years old and two 17-year-olds.
Saturday, July 22
12:07 pm: In Odesa, RMA showed a grain warehouse damaged by yesterday's Russian attack.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio
Interesting that Blinken said the US is providing military gear "just in time". So the F-16 hasn't been needed until now. What that denies is the training element. If Ukraine now needs F-16s why wasn't the training happening many months ago? Biden admin has slow-rolled everything and prolonged the agony for both sides. Blinken is just talking rubbish.