Ukraine – 7/17/2023 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
July 17, 2023
News From the Battlefield
Based on the latest “Reporting From Ukraine,” this morning’s attack on the Kerch Bridge, stopping vehicular traffic but not rail traffic, was only part of a broader attack on Russian logistics and ammunition storage that has taken place throughout temporarily occupied Ukraine in the last 24 hours.
Russian Trench Lines – Are They Fully Manned? If the reports over the last several weeks about Russian large personnel losses are true, it would seem to indicate that Russia might have problems manning the extensive trench network that they’ve built up in Southern Ukraine over the past several months.
I have been thinking about this for the past few weeks – are all these trenches manned? Not surprisingly, there has been no reporting about this possibility in the U.S. mainstream media, at least that I have seen, only about Russia’s extensive trench network and the problems Ukraine is experiencing getting through Russian minefields. Perhaps this is another example, among many when comes to coverage of the war by much of the U.S. media, of what former Washington Post Editor Benjamin Bradlee called the “Defensive Crouch,” when a reporter either misses the story, or even part of a story.
Well, it seems as if I’m not the only one asking questions about whether the Russian trench networks in temporarily occupied Southern Ukraine are fully manned. This is an extensive Tweet on this subject from Randy Mott. He makes the following points:
· “Ben Wallace (British Defense Minister) has indicated in a recent interview (I heard quoted by Thomas Theiner but cannot locate it) that the defensive Russian lines after the first one are unmanned at this point. I discussed this in an earlier tweet from various sources. Mainly the math does not work due to the extent of the lines from satellite photos and the number of Russians available.”
· “Ukrainians have drawn the Russians into moving up artillery closer to the front by their advances, (referred to by Russia as the “zero line”) placing Russian artillery under devasting drone, HIMARS and 155mm strikes. So, the "defense in depth" plan appears to have been abandoned before it actually started.”
· “As of July 17, the Russian defense is now very "brittle," meaning that it is overloaded on the "zero" line and taking heavy losses. The continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian infantry and artillery units will hollow out the defense beofre the break-through attack occurs.”
“Why Western Scholars Were Incapable of Understanding Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”/By Taras Kuzio
We have raised this point repeatedly in our emails. The policymakers and experts in the Federal Government in Washington, in the think tanks, and in the media, are almost all products of scholarship focused almost entirely on Russia. The results of their work speak for themselves, continual misunderstanding of Ukraine, its history, its culture, and its capabilities. This is beginning to change, slowly, mostly through the effort of dedicated scholars like Serhii Plokhii at Harvard and Timothy Snyder at Yale, who have correctly treated Ukrainian studies as an entirely separate subject from Russia.
However, this is no excuse for what Kuzio described - “Despite multiple descriptions of Russia as a deeply corrupt ‘mafia state,’ Western experts believed that the Russian military had underwent reforms and that the Russian army was the ‘second strongest in the world’. At the same time, they largely underestimated Ukraine.” The Pentagon has no excuse for underestimating the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces – for seven years, starting in 2015, the United States was heavily involved in training Ukrainian troops. There were numerous visits to the former “Line of Contact,” between Ukraine and the 2 “peoples’ republics.” Yet, the Pentagon continued to insist that Ukraine won’t last for longer than 5 days.
Who are the Nazis?
This a Tweet from Tymofiy Milovanov, former Minister of Economy of Ukraine, about an encounter at a café in Kyiv, between a waiter and a Russian-speaking customer.
Imagine if this encounter took place in Moscow. The customer would’ve been arrested on the spot. At the end of his Tweet Mylovanov said this, “As a Ukrainian, I feel humiliated too. And angry. But this story is also a tale of Ukrainian tolerance towards Russians during the war. The fact that this guy walks around Kyiv and accuses Ukrainians of being Nazis without any real consequences is striking.”
Mylovanov should be angry, but in my opinion by no means humiliated.
7/17/2023 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon July 16 to 12:00 noon July 17, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Monday July 17
8:04 am: Biden approved the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets in European countries, - the national security adviser of the US president, Jake Sullivan, reports CNN.
8:04 am: The Russian Federation's war against Ukraine will be discussed at the EU-Latin America summit in Brussels, - APA.
Sunday July 16
2:15 pm: Britain has become the first European country to join the Indo-Pacific Trade Block (CPTPP).
● The press service of the British government reports that the accession agreement was signed by the minister for business and trade, Kemi Badenoch.
4:41 pm: The training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets in EU countries may begin in a few weeks, according to the White House.
● They also believe that the issue of Ukraine's future in NATO has been resolved and is not subject to discussion.
5:09 pm: The Ministry of Defense of Estonia will purchase ammunition worth more than 1.2 billion euros in the next four years.
● This was reported by Postimees with reference to the statement of the Minister of Defense of Estonia, Hanno Pevkur.
● "The Russian Federation's full-scale war against Ukraine clearly shows what opportunities we need to invest in," said Pevkur.
6:01 pm: South Korea will provide mine detectors and demining equipment to Ukraine as part of a new aid package.
● This was stated by the first deputy director of the National Security Council of South Korea, Kim Tae-hyo, reports Yonhap.
● "Ukraine has also invited South Korean business to invest in the construction of factories for the production of batteries and electric vehicles," the message reads.
11:09 pm: The US will allow European countries to begin training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters.
● This was stated by Jake Sullivan, US President's National Security Adviser, CNN reports.
● "The president has given the green light and we will allow, support, facilitate and actually provide the necessary tools [...]," Sullivan said.
NATIONAL
Monday July 17
12:45 am: Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Donetsk regions - threat of ballistic weapons use.
● This is reported in the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
7:59 am: Attention! The threat of using ballistic weapons in Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia regions, where the alarm has been declared! Everyone in shelter! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
9:02 am: Attention! The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the south-eastern direction! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● There is a threat of using aviation weapons!
9:21 am: In the south, the liberated territories were increased by 10.9 kV.km during the week. In general, the advance from the time of the offensive in the south is 9.25 km, the liberated area is 179.5 kV.km. 50 servicemen of the Russian Federation were captured.
● This was reported by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Hanna Malyar.
● In the east, a territory of 7 square kilometers was liberated in a week in the Bakhmut direction. In general, during the offensive in this direction, the freed area is 31 square kilometers.
10:35 am: Over the past week, the Russian Federation carried out 15 missile and 355 air strikes on the territory of Ukraine and launched 86 Iranian attack drones of the "Shahed" type, - Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar.
10:52 am: In the Black Sea, there are 10 enemy ships on combat duty, including 2 carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles, a total salvo of 12 missiles, in the Sea of Azov - 1 enemy ship, the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
11:09 am: The SBU officially commented on the detonation of the Crimean bridge
● "All details regarding the organization of "cotton" will be revealed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine after our Victory. So far, we are watching how one of the symbols of Putin's regime once again failed to withstand the military load," SBU spokesman Artem Dekhtyarenko said.
Sunday July 16
12:50 pm spokesman of the Naval Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: the Russian Federation has increased the number of ships in the Black Sea from 9 to 11. Two missile carriers, the total salvo is 12 "Calibers".
1:55 pm: Ukrainian pilots have not yet left to learn to fly F-16 aircraft, but they are preparing, - said the spokesman of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ignat.
● "When the transfer of the F-16 will take place - it will be known, it is unlikely to be able to hide this fact. The pilots are preparing to be sent for training, so it is unlikely to be possible to talk to any of them, although there are a lot of requests", - Yuriy Ignat.
2:40 pm: This morning, the last ship of the grain initiative left the port of Odesa, Reuters reports.
● It should deliver 15,300 tons of rapeseed and 23,500 tons of corn to the Netherlands. This vessel was the last to receive permission from the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) to pass through the Bosphorus to Odesa on June 28.
● The grain deal expires tomorrow. So far, no information has been received from Russia that it will give its consent to the continuation of the operation of the corridor.
3:20 pm: On the eastern front, the situation has become somewhat more serious. Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar reported on the situation:
● The enemy has been actively advancing in the Kupyan direction in the Kharkiv region for two days in a row. The Armed Forces are on the defensive, the positions of the sides change dynamically several times a day.
● In the direction of Bakhmut, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving forward. On the southern flank around Bakhmut there is a daily advance. On the northern side, the soldiers are trying to hold their positions, the enemy is attacking.
● The enemy continues offensive actions in the Avdiiv and Marin directions. The Ukrainian military continues to effectively restrain them. Fierce battles continue with no change in positions.
3:44 pm: Now we do not have the opportunity to place air defense equipment further from cities, this will give the Russians an opportunity to identify gaps, - Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat on the air of the telethon.
● Ignat explained that currently Ukraine does not have enough air defense means to encircle the entire country, so Ukrainian defenders have to densely place the existing systems around individual settlements.
● In this regard, after shooting down enemy aerial targets, their debris sometimes falls in cities.
6:25 pm: Since the beginning of the year, international partners have allocated more than 23 billion dollars to finance the budget deficit.
● This was announced by the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal.
● "The absolute priority of spending remains security and defense, it is about half of all budget funds. In second place are social programs," Shmyhal noted.
6:50 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on July 16:
● "During the day, the enemy launched 6 rocket and 38 air strikes, launched about 30 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● As a result of the Russian terrorist attacks, civilians were injured, residential buildings, commercial and administrative buildings, as well as private motor vehicles were damaged.
● "In the Shakhtarsky direction, in the northern part of Staromayorskyi, Donetsk region, the enemy made an unsuccessful attempt to restore the lost position."
● "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsky directions, heavy battles continue.
● During the day, 20 combat clashes took place."
● "During the day, the aviation of the defense forces made 15 strikes on areas where personnel, weapons and military equipment were concentrated, 1 of which was on the enemy's anti-aircraft missile complex.
● During the day, units of missile troops and artillery hit the area of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 9 artillery pieces in firing positions and 2 enemy air defense equipment.
7:01 pm: Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Kharkiv regions - the threat of using ballistic weapons.
● This is reported by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
8:31 pm: "Azov" commander Lt. Col. Denys "Redis" Prokopenko will soon begin his duties, the "Azov" press service reports.
● "I am a soldier. I am not interested in any other areas of activity except military affairs. My heart, my soul, my body belong to Azov," Redis said during a meeting with the brigade's fighters.
8:55 pm: After the deoccupation of Crimea, Ukraine can prosecute about 10,000 collaborators.
● This was stated by the permanent representative of the President of Ukraine in the ARC Tamila Tasheva.
● "Citizens of Ukraine who found themselves in the occupation and did not cooperate with the Russians will be considered victims of the occupation, and Ukraine will do everything to protect their rights," Tasheva added.
10:15 pm: Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk regions - the threat of using ballistic weapons.
● This is reported in the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
10:44 pm: Countering the threat of using ballistic weapons.
● This is reported in the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
12:00 am: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia regions - threat of enemy use of attack UAVs
● This is reported in the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
MORDOR - russia
Monday July 17
12:41 am: Russian social networks report that Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel Oleksandr Horin has been liquidated in Ukraine.
● It was Horin who commanded the 382nd battalion that stormed the Belbek airfield in 2014 during the occupation of Crimea.
5:41 am: A span "fell" on the bridge over the Kerch Strait, traffic on it was stopped.
● "An extraordinary event in the area of the 145th pillar from the Krasnodar region. Law enforcement agencies and all responsible services are working," said the so-called head of Russian-occupied Crimea Serhii Aksyonov.
6:02 am: There is a huge traffic jam at the entrance to the Crimean Bridge from the Russian side. All cars turn back.
● Meanwhile, the head of the Krasnodar region, Kondratiev, also urged not to plan to travel through the Crimean bridge and to choose an alternative route.
6:35 am: "Either the ferry or home, where else are you going?" - drivers are turned back at the entrance to the Crimean Bridge.
● Meanwhile, the operation of the ferry crossing between the temporarily occupied Crimea and Kuban has been stopped, Fedir Babenkov, head of the Temryuk district of the Krasnodar region, said.
6:49 a.m.: Railway traffic over the Crimean Bridge has been temporarily stopped, the transport company reported.
7:00 am: On the side of the temporarily occupied Crimea, there is damage to the road surface on the spans of the Crimean Bridge, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation reported.
7:32 am: Russian media published the first footage of the damage to the Crimean bridge.
7:49 am Operational Command South: Information about the explosions on the Crimean bridge could be a provocation by the Russians.
● "It is characteristic that with such a concentration of the naval group in this area and the general tension against the background of the issue of the extension of the "grain agreement", the creation of similar provocations, which the occupying authorities of Crimea immediately report very loudly, is a typical way of solving the issues of the aggressor country." - Natalia Humenyuk.
7:52 am: Ukrainian intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov said that the GUR does not comment on the causes of the events on the Crimean Bridge:
● "One can only quote the words of the head of the State Government of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, that "the Crimean bridge is an unnecessary construction".
8:04 am: Russia and China will hold joint military exercises called North/Interaction 2023 in the Sea of Japan, involving the navies and air forces of both countries, Reuters.
8:04 am: Traffic was stopped on the Crimean Bridge due to an "emergency situation". The authorities of the Russian Federation have confirmed the damage to the road surface on the spans from the side of the peninsula.
8:25 am: The Crimean Bridge was attacked by surface drones. This is a special operation of the SBU and the Navy
● According to our sources in the Security Service, the SBU and the Naval Forces of Ukraine were involved in the nighttime bombing of the Crimean Bridge. The bridge was attacked using surface drones. It was difficult to reach the bridge, but in the end it was possible to do it.
● We will remind you that earlier the Head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, stated that the bridge is a completely legal target for Ukraine and promised to tell the details of the unique special operations after the Victory.
Sunday July 16
7:38 pm: In Bryansk, Russia, there is a strong fire on the territory of an unfinished military hospital. Video from local social networks.
10:49 pm: Air defense is operating over Belgorod and the Belgorod district of the Russian Federation.
● This was announced by Governor Gladkov. Photos and videos from local social networks.
11:33 pm: New interception of GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
● A Russian serviceman talks about the loss of personnel and the constant shelling of the Armed Forces.
REGIONS
CHERNIHIV
Monday July 17
10:10 am: Attention! Chernihiv region - possible work of air defense on the Russian anti-aircraft missile! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
SUMY
Monday July 17
12:17 am Sumy RMA: During the day of July 16, the Russians carried out 18 shelling of the border of the Sumy region.
● 126 explosions were recorded. Bilopolska, Putivlska, Velikopysarivska, Seredino-Budska, Znob-Novgorodska, Krasnopilska, Yunakivska, Shalyginska, Esmanska communities came under fire.
Sunday July 16
1:09 pm Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, the Russians carried out 8 shelling of the border. 82 explosions were recorded. The communities of Esmansk, Khotynsk, Yunakivsk, and Druzhbivsk came under fire.
● Previously - without losses among the civilian population and destruction of civil infrastructure.
KHARKIV
Monday July 17
7:33 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Vovchansk, Kharkiv region, local residents report. We are waiting for official information.
9:39 am Kharkiv RMA: This morning the Russians shelled the city of Vovchansk. Previously, 1 civilian was injured. Emergency services arrived at the scene
● Last night, the Russians fired at Kharkiv twice with S-300 missiles. One of the rockets exploded in the air over the territory of the Russian Federation, 4 hits were recorded in the city on the territory of the enterprise in the Osnovyansk district. A civilian man died. Three men, aged 41, 30, and 33, were injured and hospitalized, their condition is moderate. A 56-year-old civilian received help on the spot.
Sunday July 16
4:14 pm: In the Kharkiv region, in a field on the outskirts of the village of Andriivka, during agricultural work, a tractor came across an anti-tank mine, - DSNS.
● The tractor driver was injured. He was admitted to the hospital.
6:51 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kharkiv
6:54 pm Social Networks: Repeated explosions are heard in Kharkiv
7:00 pm: Head of the Kharkiv RMA Oleg Sinegubov confirmed the explosions in Kharkiv.
● "Professional services have gone to the places of calls. Information about the destruction and victims is being clarified," Sinegubov writes.
7:08 pm: Mayor of Kharkiv Ihor Terekhov commented on the explosions in the city:
● "Kharkiv is under attack from the enemy for the second time since the beginning of the day. The previous attack was in the Osnovyansk district."
7:29 pm: According to preliminary data, 4 people were injured after the explosions in Kharkiv.
● This was reported by the head of the Kharkiv RMA Oleg Sinegubov.
● "A fire broke out at the site of the impact. The services are working to eliminate the consequences," Sinegubov writes.
7:32 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kharkiv region.
7:55 pm: The number of people injured as a result of the Russian attack on Kharkiv has increased to 7, the mayor of the city, Igor Terekhov, reports.
● "There is unconfirmed information about one dead person," he said.
8:12 pm Kharkiv RMA: 3 men with shrapnel wounds were hospitalized in Kharkiv.
● "One person was treated on the spot. Fortunately, there were no casualties," the report said.
9:36 pm: Kharkiv region - threat of ballistic weapons use.
● This is reported by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
9:38 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kharkiv region.
9:48 pm: So far, it is known that one person died and three were injured as a result of the Russian missile attack on Kharkiv.
● This is reported by the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office.
● Previously, the Russians struck with two missiles of the S-300 type, launched from the territory of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation.
10:12 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kharkiv.
10:21 pm: Mayor of Kharkiv Ihor Terekhov said that according to preliminary data, the Russian Federation struck Kharkiv's Osnovyansk district again.
LUHANSK
Sunday July 16
3:51 pm: In the temporarily occupied Luhansk, a Russian warehouse of missile weapons was destroyed, by the Strategic Command of the ZSU.
DONETSK
Monday July 17
12:51 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region.
11:33 am Donetsk RMA: At night, the Russians launched a rocket attack on Kramatorsk — injured 2 people, damaged residential buildings and the territory of the enterprise, -
● Vugledar, Perechistevka, Komarska hromada, Velyka Novosilka, Kurakhivska were also under fire. community, New York, Chasovoyarsk community, Kostyantynivka, Pleshchiivka, Yampol, Siversk, Zvanivka.
● In total, the Russians wounded 4 residents of Donetsk region in one day.
Sunday July 16
1:30 pm Donetsk RMA: In the middle of the night, the Russians launched a missile attack on Kramatorsk — targeting the territory of the enterprise.
● Vugledar, Bogoyavlenka, Vesele, Burlatske, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Katerynivka, Oleksandro-Shultine, Kostyantynivka, Chasovoyarska, Soledarska, Illinivska, Lymanska communities were also under fire. Private houses, businesses, non-residential buildings and high-rise buildings were damaged.
● In just one day, the Russians killed 2 residents of Donetsk region and wounded 1 more.
11:47 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kurakhovo, Donetsk region.
ZAPORIZHIA
Monday July 17
10:19 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Tokmak of the Zaporizhia region.
Sunday July 16
12:10 pm Zaporizhia RMA: Over the past day, the Russian military has carried out 52 strikes on 13 settlements in the Zaporizhia region.
● Women aged 62, 66, 68 and men aged 37, 60, 61 and 68 were injured in Stepnohirsk.
● 33 reports were received about the destruction of residential buildings, an administrative building and social infrastructure facilities.
12:27 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyi: "Last month I had the opportunity to personally communicate and support our fighters from the 55th separate artillery brigade "Zaporizhka Sich".
● They are absolutely heroic. Strong, strong, confident in their actions. We will preserve the independence of Ukraine, because we have such warriors, because we have a clear understanding of what we are fighting for."
5:23 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Tokmak of the Zaporizhzhia region.
DNIPRO
Monday July 17
10:00 am Dnipro RMA: Around one o'clock the Russians attacked the area with drones. Both "Shakhed" in the sky over the region were shot down by our defenders.
KHERSON
Sunday July 16
5:36 pm Kherson RMA: Russians shelled Kherson region again: two civilians were injured and crops were destroyed.
● "In the village of Rozlyv, the Russian army targeted private houses, a 54-year-old woman and a 49-year-old man were wounded.
● And in the Belozersky district, as a result of the shelling, a field sown with wheat was occupied."
6:11 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson
9:20 pm: Defense forces in southern Ukraine have destroyed 10 Russian boats in a week.
● This was reported by the spokeswoman of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine Nataliya Humeniuk.
● According to her, the Russians used them to transport saboteurs.
9:45 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the area of temporarily occupied Henichesk, local residents report.
10:36 pm Kherson RMA: An elderly woman died in the Kherson region as a result of a Russian attack.
● In the evening, the Russians released guided aerial bombs on Zmiivka. As a result of the impact, a 70-year-old woman received non-life-threatening injuries.
10:41 pm Social Networks: An explosion is heard in Kherson
11:17 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio