Ukraine – July 16 & 15 Sitreps
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
July 16, 2023
Ukraine Has Already Defeated Russia
As a long-time student of this war, going back to 2014, it has become increasingly obvious to me, but almost certainly not by most elements in the Biden Administration, that Ukraine has already defeated Russia. The only questions are whether Ukraine will complete their victory the easy way or the hard way, and whether Ukraine’s victory will be seen as such by the Russian People.
The easy way, which is proving to be anything but easy, is for Ukraine to continue its counteroffensive with increasing western support, reclaim its territory, and drive Russian forces out of Ukraine – all of it. The hard way is for Ukraine, likely reduced to a rump state via a ceasefire and a frozen conflict midwifed by the West led by the United States, to launch partisan attacks throughout occupied Ukraine, likely killing 100 Russians per day via car bombs, assassinations, etc., where Russia will eventually withdraw on its own accord. This is exactly what Ukraine’s Western supporters must expect to happen, if Ukraine is forced by the its Western supporters to rely on the hard way.
The easy way or the hard way, Ukraine has defeated Russia. Ukraine doesn’t want Russia anywhere on its territory, and Ukraine has shown that it has the capability and the will to eject Russia, regardless of the method.
Increasingly, the Biden Administration doesn’t seem to grasp this reality. As this article in today’s Wall Street Journal describes, entitled, “Changing Places: Europeans Grow More Assertive on Ukraine as Washington Shows Caution,” Ukraine’s European partners now seem to grasp this reality, and they are responding accordingly through increased weapons supply delivered on a timely basis and other support for Ukraine. This change of places, between the United States and Europe, is graphically illustrated by an exchange between Daria Kaleniuk, Head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center in Ukraine and U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, as quoted in the Wall Street Journal article –
· “Daria Kaleniuk, a Ukrainian anticorruption campaigner and civil-society activist, raised this point in a sharp exchange with U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Is it true, she asked Sullivan at a NATO public forum in Vilnius, that Biden “didn’t invite Ukraine to NATO because he’s afraid of Russia, afraid of Russia losing, of Ukraine winning?” “
· “Speculating that there are backchannel communications between Washington and Moscow, she added: “Should I prepare my son to be a soldier and fight the Russians when he will be 18 years old in seven years?” The audience responded with thunderous applause.”
· “Sullivan responded that any suggestion that Washington would negotiate a secret deal with the Kremlin at Ukraine’s expense was “entirely unfounded and unjustified.” “
I watched a video clip of this exchange. The expression on Sullivan’s face while Daria Kaleniuk was speaking spoke volumes.
Some historians argue that Nazi Germany was defeated in the Fall and Early Winter of 1941, when the Nazis were turned back in front of Moscow. The war lasted another 3 ½ years. If Ukraine has to resort to the “hard way,” will Russia’s defeat will be seen as such by the Russian People.
“Ukraine Needs to Win Faster”/conversation between Vladislav Davidzon, a Ukrainian journalist, and Mark Galeotti, a well-known Russia expert. Here are a few excerpts:
· They agree that current tempo of the war is unsustainable. Given their agreement on the possibility of partisan warfare (“the hard way”) later in their conversation, it the current tempo does prove to be unsustainable for Ukraine, then partisan warfare will ensue.
· “Military Keynesianism” – This is how Galeotti describes Russia’s current GDP. Russia’s economy is now almost entirely sustained by high levels of defense spending which Galeotti believes is unsustainable. The major question is how long the Russians can sustain Military Keynesianism. Their army is already beginning to rely on 60-year-old T-55 tanks.
· The only honest commentator on Russia’s performance is/was Prigozhin. Galeotti said that it is this honesty that caused the residents of Rostov-on-Don to come out into the streets to cheer the Wagners, and particularly Prigozhin as he was departing Rostov.
· “The Russian Security State Has No Security at the Center” – They describe “the Center” as “brittle,” made up largely of 60+ year-old men, with very few women, held together by fear and the profit motive but with no underlying ideology holding them together. As Davidzon said, “these guys have no future.”
It is a long conversation but worth the time.
News From the Battlefield
A couple of things jump out at me. There has been relatively little news coming from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Ukrainska Pravada did report on a Ukrainian advance toward Berdiansk, on the Sea of Azov. Sometimes, such silence is a prelude to a major Ukrainian success, as was the case last year with both the Kherson and Kharkiv offensives.
The latest, “Reporting From Ukraine” describes another example of Ukraine’s ability to quickly adjust their tactics in the face of changing battlefield realities, and often achieve success as a result. This example took place along the Southern Flank of Bakhmut City.
July 16th & 15th Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon July 14 to 12:00 noon July 16, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Sunday July 16
12:50 am: Meta has blocked EU users from accessing the Threads app, TechCrunch.
● Meta launched Threads last week, but it's not available in the EU due to privacy concerns about the app.
● "Europe remains an incredibly important market for Meta, and we hope to make Threads available here in the future," the company wrote.
8:00 AM: South Korea, the US and Japan held trilateral missile defense exercises in international waters of the East Sea in the event of North Korea's use of intercontinental ballistic missiles, - Yonhap.
9:51 am: Hungarian President Katalin Novak will take part in the meeting of the Crimean Platform - Hungarian Telex edition.
● The administration of the president added that before his trip to Kyiv, Novak will visit the Carpathian region to celebrate August 20, the feast of King St. Stephen, together with Ukrainians of Hungarian origin there.
Saturday July 15
12:29 am: "The question of Ukraine's membership in NATO can be part of the agreement with Putin - Russia withdraws troops, and they do not allow Ukraine to join NATO," - Boris Johnson.
● According to him, the Alliance should have promised that Ukraine would become a member of NATO immediately after the war, and not set conditions for receiving an invitation.
12:49 am: In China, a new high-speed train - CR450 was tested and its maximum speed was 453 km/h.
● In the process of real operation, the speed will be reduced to 400, but it will still be the fastest in the world.
7:48 am: Arms supplies to Ukraine from Germany since the beginning of the Russian invasion until 2027 will amount to approximately 17 billion euros, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at his press conference on Friday, AFP reports.
● "Russia's aggressive war continues to affect our lives and worries us all very much, which is why Germany is the second country after the United States in the amount of military aid provided to Kyiv," Scholz said.
8:22 AM: The government of Latvia has decided to hand over 11 more cars confiscated from drunk drivers to Ukraine free of charge - the total number of such cars has already reached 151, - LSM.
8:22 am: The supply of missiles for the Armed Forces may be complicated due to a strike by workers at one of the facilities of the British Ministry of Defense, - The Mirror.
8:22 am: In the Netherlands, due to the threat of espionage, officials have been banned from installing the AliExpress app, the Wechat chat app, the video editing program CapCut and the Russian social network Vkontakte on their phones, - NOS.
10:18 am: South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol arrived in Ukraine on an unannounced visit, Yonhap.
10:51 am: Europe still awaits US approval to train Ukrainian F-16 pilots, - Politico.
● Training on the F-16 cannot begin until the U.S. State Department formally signs off on a request to transfer operating manuals, simulators and other materials related to the aircraft.
1:51 pm: President Putin needs to be disillusioned that Russia will be able to hold out longer than Ukraine and the countries that support it, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at a press conference in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta.
● The US Secretary of State noted that at the recent summit in Vilnius, dozens of countries took very specific measures to support Ukraine, which is defending its territory and trying to return lands seized by Russia.
3:01 pm: The House of Representatives approved the draft US defense budget 2024, which includes $300 million to contribute to the security of Ukraine, Voice of America.
● $300 million to support Ukraine is equal to the amount requested by the Biden administration, but at the same time $500 million less than was agreed last year.
3:26 pm: Prime Minister of India Modi, during his visit to Paris, gave instructions to break a peace plan together with France to settle the war in Ukraine, — Le Monde.
● At the same time, the publication adds that the plan will differ from the initiatives proposed by China and the "Global South".
5:40 pm: Serbia will deliver humanitarian aid to Ukraine to overcome the consequences of the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP.
● This is reported on the website of the Government of Serbia.
● The aid includes, in particular, goods and medicines from the Republican Directorate of Commodity Reserves and goods from the Commissariat for Refugees and Migration.
8:09 pm: 18,000 Ukrainian soldiers were trained in Britain during the year of operation Interflex.
● This was announced by the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain.
● "Interflex teaches Ukrainians to survive and destroy the enemy in the fight against illegal invasion of their native country," the message reads.
10:18 pm: Ben Wallace, in an interview with The Sunday Times, announced that he would resign as the British Defense Secretary during the upcoming reshuffle in the Cabinet of Ministers.
● "I came into politics from the Scottish Parliament in 1999. That's 24 years. I spent over seven years with three phones by my bed," Wallace said.
11:01 pm: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan held talks in Brussels with the participation of the President of the European Council Charles Michel.
● "Our meeting was the latest in a series of intensive and productive high-level meetings involving the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, deputy prime ministers and foreign ministers since the beginning of May in Brussels, Chisinau, Washington, Moscow and on the bilateral border," - Michel said.
● According to him, despite the fact that the meeting took place in the context of an alarming rise in tensions on the ground, he noted an important momentum in political discussions and efforts.
Friday July 14
3:01 pm: Bulgaria handed over a package of military aid to Ukraine, which includes 100 armored vehicles, mostly BMPs, Euracitiv.
● This is the first military package from Bulgaria to Ukraine that was officially announced. Until now, military aid has been kept secret, but it has been unofficially reported that Bulgaria is helping Ukraine with ammunition. After the provision of armored vehicles, Bulgaria hopes to receive new equipment from the United States.
4:30 pm: Turkish President Erdogan says Putin has agreed to extend the grain deal, — AFP.
4:55 pm: The Armed Forces can count on great success at the front, Estonian intelligence chief Margo Grosberg said.
● He noted that Ukrainian forces are destroying command posts and logistics centers of the occupiers, advancing in the areas near Bakhmut. He also noted that Russia is exhausting its reserves.
6:04 pm: South Korea plans to allocate more than 50 billion dollars for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
● This was reported by The Korea Herald with reference to the statement of the Economic Secretary of the President of South Korea, Choi Sang-mok.
● "Ukraine invited Korean companies to participate in approximately 5,000 construction projects valued at $20 billion through the intergovernmental cooperation channel in May," he said.
6:24 pm: The US plans to buy decommissioned MIM-23 Hawk air defense systems from Taiwan and then transfer them to Ukraine, — Taiwan News.
● According to the publication, Phase III MIM-23 Hawk were decommissioned back in June.
● "The purchase agreement was preceded by consultations between the governments of the United States and Taiwan," the message reads.
8:30 pm: The House of Representatives of the US Congress approved the draft military budget for $886 billion, — The Hill.
● 219 congressmen spoke "for" the project, 210 "against".
11:26 pm Bloomberg: The EU is still at loggerheads with the European Central Bank over plans to use the proceeds of more than €200 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets to help rebuild Ukraine.
NATIONAL
Sunday July 16
12:09 am: In the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, about 20% of the armored vehicles that Ukraine sent to the battlefield were damaged or destroyed, New York Times.
● In the following weeks, the casualty rate dropped to about 10%, allowing more troops and equipment to be saved.
● This happened, in part, because Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than on minefield attacks.
7:23 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Tonight, the Russian Federation struck Ukraine with anti-aircraft guided missiles. Information regarding the consequences of this terrorist attack is currently being clarified.
● the Russians are concentrating their main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk directions - 39 combat clashes took place during the past day.
● Aviation of the Defense Forces per day carried out 9 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel of the Russian Federation. Also, our defenders destroyed 7 reconnaissance UAVs during the day,
● During the day, units of missile forces and artillery hit 2 ammunition warehouses, 5 artillery means in firing positions, 4 areas of concentration of manpower, 4 EW stations, 2 anti-aircraft defense means and 3 more important objects.
8:39 am: Attention! The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the south-eastern direction! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● There is a threat of using aviation weapons!
10:12 am: There is a threat of dropping guided aerial bombs in the regions where the alarm sounds, - Yuriy Ignat
● "In the waters of the Sea of Azov and along the demarcation line, the activity of enemy aircraft is observed. Apparently, there will be practice of guided air bombs, as the enemy usually does. That is why you now see alarm in a number of areas. As of now, about 20 of our posts are working together with drones in various directions ", - noted the spokesman of the Air Force.
Saturday July 15
7:09 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Tonight, the Russian Federation struck another blow with Iranian attack UAVs "Shahed-136/131" and anti-aircraft guided missiles on Ukraine. Information regarding the consequences of this terrorist attack is currently being clarified.
● the Russians continue to concentrate their main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk directions, heavy battles continue. During the day, 32 combat clashes took place.
● Over the past day, the Air Force of the Defense Forces has struck 13 strikes on personnel concentration areas and 1 on the Russian anti-aircraft missile complex, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● Over the past day, units of missile forces and artillery have hit 9 artillery pieces at firing positions.
7:53 am: Attention! The activity of the Russian tactical aviation in the south-eastern direction is observed! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● There is a threat of using aviation weapons!
9:27 am: Destroyed 10 aerial targets, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● At night, 4 "Shahed-136/131" attack drones were destroyed. And during the past 24 hours (in addition to 16 "Shaheeds" shot down at night), air defense destroyed 3 operational-tactical reconnaissance UAVs ("Orlan", "Zala") and 3 attack drones of the "Lancet" type.
11:08 am: The President of South Korea together with the Prosecutor General of Ukraine visited Buch
● "Today we visited Bucha to see with our own eyes the consequences of Russia's cannibalistic tactics aimed at destroying peaceful Ukrainians. During the 33 days of occupation of Bucha, all kinds of war crimes were committed here," said Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin.
2:37 pm: Volodymyr and Olena Zelensky met with the President of the Republic of Korea Yun Seok-yol and the First Lady Kim Jong-hee.
● "During this visit - the first in the history of our relations - we are discussing everything that is important for the normal and safe life of people, for the international order based on rules," the president of Ukraine wrote.
3:48 pm: Korea will allocate $150 million to Ukraine for demining and help in the restoration of schools, the President of the Republic of Korea Yoon Seok-yeol announced.
4:33 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyi summed up the negotiations, meetings and events that took place over the 15 days of July.
4:58 pm: The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, emphasized the need to strengthen the work of law enforcement officers in combating the illegal trafficking of weapons and drug crimes, preventing fraud and cases of domestic violence, reports the National Police of Ukraine.
● "The Ministry of Internal Affairs has prepared a draft law on a safe environment. This is a framework law that will apply to all areas of our activity. Its implementation and the feeling of security of every citizen is a priority of our work, on which people's trust in the police depends," Ihor Klymenko said.
6:02 pm: The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the southeast direction, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
● "There is a threat of the use of aviation weapons! In the event of an alarm, go to the shelter," the message reads.
6:54 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on July 15:
● "During the current day, the Russian Federation launched a missile-air strike with two Iranian strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type and two anti-aircraft guided missiles against Ukraine.
● As a result of the successful combat operation of the Air Defense Forces of Ukraine, two attack UAVs were destroyed.
● In addition, the enemy carried out 32 airstrikes and launched 15 attacks from rocket salvo systems.
● "The enemy is concentrating its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsk directions.
● During the day, 28 combat clashes took place."
● "About 200 patients were taken out of the Mykhailo psychoneurological boarding school building in the temporarily occupied Pokazne village of Zaporizhzhya region in an unknown direction, and the service staff was dismissed.
● In the future, a military hospital for the treatment of wounded Russian servicemen is planned to be located on the territory and in the premises."
● "In one day, the air force of the defense forces made 9 strikes on areas where enemy personnel were concentrated.
● Also, our defenders destroyed 6 reconnaissance UAVs during the day.
● During the day, units of missile forces and artillery hit 2 ammunition warehouses, 4 artillery pieces in firing positions, and 2 enemy air defense equipment.
7:07 pm: Threat of using ballistic weapons in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Sumy regions, where an alert has been declared, reports the Air Force of Ukraine.
8:33 pm: Oschadbank canceled the requirement for personal identification of internally displaced persons to receive pensions and benefits.
● This is reported on the website of the Ministry of Reintegration.
● "Currently, the Ministry of Social Policy is working on a draft of the relevant regulatory changes, which will be adopted in the near future," the message says.
9:11 pm: Ukrainian divers-sappers have recovered a Russian tank that was sunk during a failed attempt to cross the Desna River in Chernihiv Oblast.
● This was reported by the State Special Transport Service.
● "the Russian tank will be delivered for further restoration and will enter the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," writes the DSST.
9:55 pm: The departure of two Tu-22m3 aircraft from the Mozdok airfield (North Caucasus) was recorded, the Air Force of Ukraine reports.
● "Threat of cruise missile launches! Do not ignore the air warning signal," the message reads.
11:26 pm: Ukraine is conducting negotiations with partners regarding the creation of a judicial mechanism to bring to justice the top management of the Russian Federation.
● This was announced by the Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin.
Friday July 14
12:31 pm: At the NATO summit, Ukraine overcame a psychological barrier and is really seen as a member of the Alliance, said Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba on the air of the telethon.
● According to the minister, the fact that the Alliance did not make a "quantum leap" is bad, but Ukraine will receive an invitation to NATO much sooner than it seems.
12:46 pm: Ukraine has returned the bodies of another 62 dead soldiers, the Ministry of Reintegration reports.
● Four of them died in Russian captivity because of injuries, illness and inadequate medical care.
12:54 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.
● The reports of the commanders of Zaluzhnyi, Syrskyi, and Tarnavskyi were heard - the situation at the front, advancement, defense.
● Also discussed:
● new defense packages;
● improvement of supply logistics;
● increasing own production, in particular, a good result with regard to UAVs. Increasing the amount of repairs;
● protection of nuclear power plants and the northern border;
● the report of the head of the Ministry of Education and Culture of the Ministry of Education, Kirill Budanov. Taking into account the intelligence data and the measures taken, there is no threat of an invasion from Belarus.
1:11 pm: UAV strike companies of the "Drone Army" received 53 vehicles.
● They were bought by the Ukrainian company Favbet for UAH 57.5 million.
1:36 pm Operational Command South: Two enemy missile carriers equipped with 12 calibers are on combat duty in the Black Sea.
2:36 pm: So far, the Russian Federation has withdrawn almost all of its military personnel who were on the territory of Belarus, said Andriy Demchenko, the spokesman of the Border Service of Ukraine.
● According to him, up to 2,000 servicemen of the Russian Federation were stationed at Belarusian training grounds until recently. Now this number has decreased.
3:51 pm: In the Solomyanskyi court of Kyiv, a meeting has begun regarding the change of the preventive measure of Metropolitan Pavlo Lebid of the UOC MP, — media.
● Earlier, the Prosecutor General's Office informed him about a new suspicion. Prosecutors demand to transfer the metropolitan to detention in a pretrial detention center.
5:14 pm: Activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeast direction, reported by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
5:25 pm: The government appointed Ivan Vyhivskyi as the head of the National Police of Ukraine.
● This was reported by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.
● "The relevant decision was taken by the Cabinet of Ministers at today's meeting," the message reads.
6:39 pm: The reason for the alarm is the takeoff of the MiG-31K, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
6:49 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on July 14:
● "During the day, the Russian occupiers launched another missile and air strike on the territory of Ukraine, using 17 Iranian-made Shahed attack drones and 1 anti-aircraft guided missile from the S-300 air defense system.
● As a result of successful combat work [...] 16 "martyrs" were destroyed.
● In addition, the enemy carried out 43 airstrikes and carried out 17 attacks from rocket salvo systems.
● "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lymansk, Bakhmutsk, Avdiivsk and Marinsky directions, heavy battles continue.
● About 20 combat clashes took place during the day."
● "During the day, the aviation of the defense forces made 13 strikes on personnel concentration areas and 1 on the enemy's anti-aircraft missile complex.
● Units of missile troops and artillery hit 9 artillery pieces in firing positions during the day.
7:31 pm: SBU military counterintelligence officers continue to destroy enemy equipment.
● This time, the list of losses of the Russian army was replenished: 3 tanks - including T-90M and T-90, 4 BMP and 3 armored personnel carriers, MTLB, anti-aircraft installation, observation complex "Murom", anti-tank gun, 17 units of automotive equipment and 2 ammunition depots , 3 units of engineering equipment, 2 UAVs, calculation of FPV drones and others.
7:52 pm: Ukrainians will be able to independently prepare for the theory test for a driver's license.
● This is reported by the Main Service Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
● But for a practical course of study, as before, it will be necessary to apply to accredited educational institutions.
8:10 pm: Evening address of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi:
● "Held a meeting of the Headquarters - very detailed and focused primarily on the front line. The situation in all key areas of action: both defense against Russian assaults and our active steps forward.
● Plus everything that is important for this: projectiles and weapons, equipment, rational use of projectiles, supplies from partners and our Ukrainian production, logistics."
9:12 pm: If the partners are afraid to transfer weapons to Ukraine that can be used on the territory of the Russian Federation, then Ukraine will use weapons of its own production.
● This was stated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhnyi in an interview with The Washington Post.
● "This is our problem, and we have to decide how to kill this enemy. In war, the enemy can and should be killed on his territory," said Zaluzhny.
9:15 pm: The launch of the "Shahed" attack UAV from Primorsko-Akhtarsk was recorded, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
10:09 pm: The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the south-eastern direction, - the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
10:18 pm: The Solomenskyi District Court of Kyiv granted the request of the prosecutors to change the preventive measure against Metropolitan Pavel, the Vicar of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, from 24-hour house arrest to detention with the possibility of bail in the amount of 33 million hryvnias.
● This was stated by the spokeswoman of the Kyiv regional prosecutor's office Olena Kovalyova.
10:38 pm: Valery Zaluzhnyi has promised to return Crimea, even if the Western allies are against it.
● "As soon as I have funds, I will do something. I'm going to sneeze - no one will stop me," said the leader in an interview with the Washington Post.
● 3:35 am: Threat of using ballistic weapons in Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, Donetsk regions, where the alarm has been declared, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
● 4:08 am: Countering the threat of using ballistic weapons, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
MORDOR - RUSSIA
Sunday July 16
6:40 am: "Above by sea shot down one UAV and p'yea suppressed forces REB. Also was destroyed two surface drones on external Raid", - reported So called "governor" temporarily occupied Sevastopol MichaYlo Razvozhaev.
7:15 am: Ferries and boats have been temporarily suspended in Sevastopol Bay, the city's transport department said.
8:55 am: A video from the temporarily occupied Sevastopol appeared online.
● RosZMI claims that the city attacked a naval drone.
Saturday July 15
12:10 am: New interception of GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:
● A Russian serviceman talks about the critical psychological state of Russian soldiers.
8:22 am: Putin seeks to keep Wagner PMC as a cohesive fighting group after last month's armed mercenary uprising, but without Prigozhin, - ISW.
8:45 am: The world's largest oil field service company SLB announced the suspension of the supply of goods and services to the Russian Federation.
● This is stated in the SLB press release.
10:06 am: A large convoy of the "Wagner" PMC has arrived in Belarus - the "Belarusian Gayun" monitoring group.
● This morning, July 15, a large convoy of cars and trucks with the so-called DPR/LPR license plates was spotted. The totality of factors shows that this is a convoy of the "Wagner" PVK, which entered Belarus from Russia in the Krycheva area at night.
11:09 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Sevastopol.
11:43 am: Russian officers are unhappy with Gerasimov and Shoigu — British intelligence
● British intelligence reacted to the release in Russia of the commander of the 58th Army, Major General Ivan Popov, who sharply criticized the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, saying that it "hit us from the rear, brutally decapitated the army at the most difficult and tense moment." Direct criticism from on the part of subordinates, is probably becoming an increasing problem for Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff General Gerasimov," the message says.
1:10 p.m.: The State Border Service of Ukraine confirms the presence of separate groups of the "Wagner" PMC in Belarus, said Andriy Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Service of Ukraine.
● "We continue to monitor this situation in order to understand all the places where they will be stationed, how many there will be and what tasks they will perform," he said.
7:48 pm: The parched North Crimean Canal in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
● Photo from local social networks.
9:42 pm: New interception of GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:
● A Russian military serviceman from the Avdiiv district talks about the significant losses of personnel, the negligent attitude of doctors to the wounded, and the command's attitude towards soldiers as "cannon fodder".
Friday July 14
8:50 pm: Mobilized Russians who are in the occupied territory of Ukraine are forced to sign documents on military service under a contract in the Soviet Union.
● This was announced by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Hanna Malyar.
● "In case of refusal to sign contracts, commanders resort to blackmail of subordinates and direct threats to keep them on the front line without rotation," Malyar writes.
11:50 pm: Russia will cut oil exports next month by about 100,000-200,000 barrels per day compared to July levels, — Reuters.
● The publication notes that in this way the Russian Federation fulfills its promise of new reductions in supplies in tandem with the head of OPEC.
REGIONS
AMOUNTS
Sunday July 16
10:54 am Sumy RMA: Today at 9:15 a.m. in the area of the village of Verkhnya Sirovatka of the Sumy district, a Russian UAV was shot down by air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
11:30 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Sumy.
11:50 a.m. Today at 11:30 a.m., an enemy anti-aircraft missile was shot down by air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the territory of the Sumy district, RMA reported.
Saturday July 15
10:35 am Sumy RMA: In the morning, the Russians shelled the Khotyn community with mortars (17 explosions).
● Previously - without victims among the civilian population and destruction of civil infrastructure
2:14 pm: The possibility of free evacuation from Sumy Oblast has appeared, — the Ministry of Reintegration.
● "Already today, the first Sumy-Kyiv evacuation train left Sumy for Kyiv. It will run daily — it will depart from Sumy at 6:47 a.m. and arrive in Kyiv at 11:41 a.m.," the message reads.
11:24 pm: Explosions are heard in Sumy, subscribers report. We are waiting for official information.
11:49 pm: Residents of Sumy were urged to remain calm after the sounds of explosions in the city.
● "All services are working. Details are being clarified! Wait for official information," — Sumy OVA.
KHARKIV
Sunday July 16
1:54 am: Explosions were heard in Kharkiv, the mayor of the city, Ihor Terekhov, said.
2:43 am: "arrivals" have been recorded in the city center, Kharkov Mayor Ihor Terekhov said.
● One of the explosions occurred in the Shevchenkiv district of Kharkiv, without damage, and there is currently no information about the victims.
● As for the rest of the rocket attacks, the employees of the State Emergency Service are examining the territories.
9:16 am Kharkiv RMA: At night, the Russians from Belgorod region launched 4 S-300 air defense missiles at Kharkiv.
● 2 rockets exploded in the air, 2 other rockets hit the ground at the stadium and the road surface in the Shevchenkiv district. The windows of the 4-story building were broken. No casualties.
● Border and front-line settlements of Bogodukhiv, Kharkiv, Chuguyiv and Kupyan districts of the region were also under fire. A 33-year-old civilian man died. 1 more person was injured. A private residential building was damaged.
10:26 am: The consequences of the nighttime S-300 missile attack on Kharkiv were published in the regional prosecutor's office.
Saturday July 15
12:04 pm Kharkiv RMA: the Russians shelled the village. Kolodyazne of the Kupyan district.
● A 33-year-old civilian man died. Another man was injured. Emergency services are currently on site.
7:05 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kharkiv region.
LUHANSK
Sunday July 16
10:14 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Luhansk.
DONETSK
Sunday July 16
12:20 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region.
10:48 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Mariupol.
Saturday July 15
11:24 am Donetsk RMA: Russians fired 17 times from Vugledar artillery — no casualties.
● Avdiivka, Toretsk, Chasovoyarsk hromad, Kostyantynivka, Zvanivka, Siversk and Lymansk hromad were also under fire. Damaged houses and sports complex.
● In just one day, the number of Russian victims in Donetsk region increased by 1 dead person.
12:49 pm Operational Command North: The Armed Forces destroyed the Russian S-400 "Triumph" air defense system, which was located near Debaltseve.
● the defenders took revenge on the Russians for shelling Kramatorsk. Then 12 people died as a result of the attack, including three children.
5:04 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Slovyansk, Donetsk region.
Friday July 14
1:57 pm: No losses of positions and territories were allowed in the Avdiyiv direction, Colonel Mykola Urshalovych said, Deputy Director of the Department of Planning for the Use of the National Guard.
● "The enemy is constantly attacking, making sorties, but his attempts are not successful. National Guard units are holding the initiative and preparing a bridgehead for expanding and continuing offensive actions," the colonel said.
2:16 pm: the Russians have prepared quite powerfully for the Ukrainian offensive, which is why the counteroffensive is progressing so slowly, — the commander of the operational-strategic group of troops "Tavria" Oleksandr Tarnavskyi.
● "They (Russians - ed.) carried out very dense complex mining using minefields, high-explosive fragmentation ammunition and direct laying of powerful high-explosives, which are now located in the areas where equipment and personnel will pass," said Tarnavskyi.
ZAPORIZHIA
Sunday July 16
9:31 am: That night, the Russians attacked Zaporozhye again. There is an injured person - Anatoliy Kurtev, secretary of the Zaporizhia City Council.
● Currently, there is no electricity in one of the districts of Zaporozhye. An infrastructure facility was also damaged. The blast wave blew out windows in nearby buildings.
10:03 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in the temporarily occupied Berdyansk of the Zaporizhzhia region.
11:26 am: Ukrainian troops have advanced on one of the sections of the Berdyansk direction of the front, said Valery Shershen, the spokesman of the Defense Forces of the Tavryan direction.
Saturday July 15
1:30 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhzhia
9:12 am Zaporizhia RMA: At night, the Russians attacked the outskirts of Zaporizhia twice using UAVs. As a result, a 62-year-old man was injured.
● During the day, the Russian military carried out 45 shellings on peaceful towns and villages of the region. So far, 27 destructions of residential and social infrastructure facilities in 15 settlements have been recorded.
5:18 pm: the Russians shelled Stepnohirske, Zaporizhzhia region, from "hail", reports the head of OP Andriy Yermak.
● "They hit the administrative building of the village council. Three victims: two women and one man," Yermak wrote.
5:53 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Tokmak of the Zaporizhia region.
7:25 pm Social Networks: Repeated explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Tokmak of the Zaporizhia region.
10:13 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhzhia.
10:14 pm: Missile launches in the direction of Zaporizhzhia were recorded, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Friday July 14
5:45 p.m.: The Security Service informed about the suspicion of a Crimean who fought against Ukraine as part of the Russians and was captured, the press service of the SBU reports.
● "While in the position of a senior rifleman, the traitor took a direct part in combat operations against the Armed Forces in the Vasylivskyi and Pologivskyi districts of the Zaporizhzhia region," the message reads.
● He is currently in custody. The investigation is ongoing to establish all the circumstances of the crime, the perpetrator faces life imprisonment.
Kherson
Sunday July 16
12:25 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
9:40 a.m. Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kakhovsky district.
11:15 am Kherson RMA: Over the past day, the Russians have carried out 69 shellings, firing 415 shells from mortars, artillery, Grads, aviation, AGS and UAVs.
● 10 shells were fired in the city of Kherson. They aimed at the residential quarters of the settlements of the region; an administrative building, a shop and the territory of warehouses in Beryslav district. 1 person died.
11:34 am: As a result of the explosion in the Kherson region, two children were injured, - head of OVA Oleksandr Prokudin.
● In Trifonivka, children found an unknown object on the street. During the game, the device detonated. Boys aged 8 and 10 were injured. In children - craniocerebral injuries, contusions. The younger man also received shrapnel wounds to his body and hands, and a burn to his leg.
● The boys were hospitalized in moderate condition. They are provided with the necessary medical assistance.
Saturday July 15
9:47 am Kherson RMA: Over the past day, the Russians have launched 70 shellings, firing 361 shells from mortars, artillery, tanks, Grads, aircraft and UAVs.
● 10 shells were fired in the city of Kherson. They aimed at the residential quarters of the settlements of the region; the territory and buildings of the cottage society of the Kherson city community.
● There are no victims or wounded among the civilian population.
1:31 pm Kherson RMA: In Kherson, a man died trying to disassemble ammunition.
● "Probably, a 59-year-old man sprayed a projectile in his garage. It detonated, as a result of which the man from Kherson received non-life-threatening injuries," the message reads.
9:27 pm: Explosion in temporarily occupied Oleshki, Kherson region. Video from social networks.
10:37 pm: As a result of an attack by partisans in the Kherson region, 6 Russian soldiers were killed and several trucks were damaged, "Sprovit".
● "In the middle of the day, on July 14, 2023, a member of the ATESH resistance movement carried out sabotage in the village of Velyki Kopani," the message reads.
Friday July 14
12:11 pm Operational Command South: The Armed Forces destroyed three reconnaissance groups of Russians on boats at the mouth of the Dnieper.
9:20 pm: Air alert in the Kherson region is related to the activity of enemy tactical aviation.
9:33 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Berislav district of the Kherson region.
9:55 pm: Soldiers of the Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigade destroyed 3 Russian attack UAVs "Lancet".
● This was reported by the Public Relations Service of the Southern Air Command.
11:01 pm: Kherson, Mykolaiv regions - threat of enemy use of attack UAVs, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
11:14 pm: Enemy strike drones from the Black Sea are heading in a northerly direction, the Air Force said.
MYKOLAIV
Sunday July 16
8:33 am Mykolaiv RMA: Yesterday and this morning shelling was recorded in Ochakiv. No casualties. The windows of the apartment building were damaged, -
● The Russians also launched mortar attacks on the water area and the cape of the Ochakiv community. There are no casualties
● In the evening, the Russians carried out artillery shelling of the settlement and the area of the settlement of the Kutsurub community. There are no casualties.
Saturday July 16
12:25 pm Mykolaiv RMA: Yesterday, the Russians launched artillery strikes on the coastal strip and the territory of Ochakiv. Residential buildings and the Internet line were damaged. There are no casualties.
● Also yesterday, Russian artillery strikes were carried out in the water area of the Ochakiv community. There are no casualties.
IVANO FRANKIVSK
Friday July 14
4:19 pm: Cyber specialists of the Security Service detained a resident of the Ivano-Frankivsk region, who administered a pro-Kremlin group on the banned social network Vkontakte, the press service of the SBU.
● He spread Russian disinformation about the events at the front, and also praised the higher military and political leadership of the aggressor country.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio